JP6327684B1 - Business evaluation method and business evaluation system - Google Patents

Abstract

An object of the present invention is to provide a business property evaluation including a movable property evaluation by considering a risk evaluation of equipment necessary for continuing the business. SOLUTION: A method for evaluating business feasibility of a power generation business operator, in which evaluation items and evaluation methods for personal property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation, and disaster risk evaluation are described from a server database. A step of transmitting a sheet to the terminal, and a step of receiving an evaluation sheet in which an evaluation by the evaluator is entered from the terminal as an evaluation result, aggregating evaluation points for each evaluation sheet, and converting the evaluation score into a predetermined evaluation index And calculating a future value price obtained by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the amount of power sold calculated from the amount of power generated from the time of evaluation until the predetermined maturity and the unit price of power consumption, and converted in each evaluation sheet. A step of weighting each evaluation index and multiplying the future value price by the sum of the decimal fractions to calculate the expected sale price With. [Selection] Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a business property evaluation method and a business property evaluation system. More specifically, the present invention relates to a server including a database, and the business property of the business operator in consideration of calculation of the assessed value of movable property held by the business operator and risk assessment. The present invention relates to a business evaluation method and a business evaluation system that provide evaluation.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, a system that supports a property-collateralized loan operation in a financial institution supports a property-collateralized “management” operation. For example, using a computer system connected to a commodity market database, the market price of a property subject to movable collateral is acquired, and the unit price of the subject property is updated in order to periodically evaluate the movable collateral. Further, this loan management system calculates the property evaluation value by multiplying the latest unit price by the quantity of the property subject to property collateral and multiplying by the multiplier corresponding to the volatility of the price fluctuation (for example, see Patent Document 1). ).

  However, the conventional loan management system mainly supports the “management” operation of personal property collateral, and takes into account changes in property over time, taking into account the characteristics of products, seasonal fluctuations, and market value. There was a problem that there was no means for performing evaluation in consideration. In view of this, a movable property evaluation system has been proposed that can easily calculate an evaluation value in consideration of the characteristics of the product for movable property (for example, see Patent Document 2).

  Knowing the appraisal value of the property owned by the operator is not only information necessary for performing the property-related loan business, but is also useful as a tool for monitoring the actual state of the operator's business. In other words, by evaluating the movable property over time, the liquidity of movable property and accounts receivable becomes clear, and it becomes easy to grasp the continuity and growth potential of the business.

JP 2004-171594 A Japanese Patent No. 4219382

  In a conventional movable property evaluation system, for example, raw materials in the manufacturing industry and stocks of manufactured products are evaluated as movable property, and can be used as an index for evaluating business feasibility. However, in order to grasp the continuity and growth potential of the business, not only the value of these stocks, but also the safety of the equipment necessary to continue the business, such as raw materials, product storage conditions, and the operation mode of the manufacturing equipment. It is necessary to consider properties and durability.

  In addition, for the manufacturing industry, the distribution industry, etc., since the article to be handled can be evaluated as a movable property, it is useful for evaluating the business as described above. On the other hand, in the service industry that provides only labor, and in the business that handles intangibles such as information and electricity, the equipment used for the business, for example, network equipment such as servers in the information and communication industry, power generation and power transmission equipment in the power business, etc. It can be considered to be used for evaluation of business feasibility.

  However, in the conventional movable property evaluation system, although an article on a general distribution channel can be handled, evaluation of an article not on the distribution channel such as business facilities has not been considered. In the conventional system, the evaluation is limited to the hardware of the equipment, and the evaluation from the operation side of the business including the software has not been made. Furthermore, in projects conducted under legal regulations, in addition to screening before the start of the project, inspection and maintenance during the implementation of the project, compliance with the removal of equipment after the end of the project, etc. are required. Whether such compliance items are observed is also an important indicator of business feasibility evaluation, but is not considered at all in the conventional system.

  In the conventional movable property evaluation system, the disposal price of movable property is calculated as the evaluation result. Similarly, in the case of business evaluation, the sale price of business equipment and the price in the case of selling all of the business can be considered as evaluation results, but there was no system that could calculate such a sale price.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a business feasibility evaluation method and a business feasibility evaluation system that provide a business feasibility assessment including a movable property assessment by considering a risk assessment of facilities necessary for continuing the business. There is.

In order to achieve the above object, according to one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for evaluating a business property of a business operator who performs a power generation business using a server connected to a terminal of the evaluator, the server The first terminal of the evaluator who evaluates the facility of the business operator from the database, the first of the evaluator who evaluates the device by testing and inspecting the equipment constituting the business facility by the test device The evaluation item and its evaluation method for property assessment, power generation risk assessment, and disaster risk assessment are provided on the third terminal of the evaluator who conducts assessment in the field at the location where the terminal of 2 and the operator's equipment are installed. a step of sending the described evaluation sheet, for the first, the evaluation sheet evaluated by the evaluator from the second and third terminal are entered received as the evaluation result, each evaluation sheet, the evaluation point Gather Then, calculate the future value price by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the amount of power sold calculated from the step of converting to a predetermined evaluation index and the amount of power generated from the time of evaluation to the specified maturity and the unit price of power consumption And a step of weighting each of the evaluation indices converted in each evaluation sheet and multiplying the future value price by a summed coefficient after the decimal point to calculate a predicted sale price value. It is characterized by that.

  As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to evaluate the business from the operational viewpoint based on the three-stage evaluation results, and the future value as a business operator is clarified by calculating the expected sale price. It is possible to provide a business evaluation of the operator including the evaluation.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the business evaluation system concerning one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the business property evaluation method concerning one Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the server concerning this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the method of movable property evaluation concerning this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the environmental evaluation in movable property evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the design evaluation in movable property evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the business property evaluation in movable property evaluation. It is a flowchart which shows the method of the power generation risk evaluation concerning this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of document evaluation in power generation risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of O & M execution item evaluation in power generation risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the equipment inspection inspection in power generation risk evaluation. It is a flowchart which shows the method of disaster risk evaluation concerning this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the general information in disaster risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the design book review in disaster risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the local information in disaster risk evaluation.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the present embodiment, a business operator who has a photovoltaic power generation facility and sells electric power will be described as an example of a business performance evaluation. Accordingly, it is obvious to those skilled in the art that the present invention can be applied to a power generation business using renewable energy as a target for evaluating business feasibility.

  FIG. 1 shows the configuration of a business evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present invention. A server 1 that executes the main function of business feasibility evaluation and various terminals that are connected to the server 1 via the network 2 and provide information necessary for business feasibility evaluation and use the evaluation results are connected. The terminal is used to test and inspect the equipment that constitutes the business facility by the terminal 3 of the evaluator who evaluates the property owned by the business operator, the business equipment that is the real estate, and various test devices 6, From the result, the terminal 4 of the evaluator who evaluates the device, the terminal 5 of the evaluator who performs evaluation in the actual place at the place where the business facility is installed, and the like are included.

  FIG. 2 shows a business evaluation method according to an embodiment of the present invention. The business evaluation can be roughly divided into three stages, namely, movable property evaluation S1, power generation risk evaluation S2, and disaster risk evaluation S3, and these are collectively performed as a comprehensive evaluation S4.

  FIG. 3 shows the configuration of the server according to the present embodiment. The server 1 receives a central processing unit 11, a main storage unit 12 that stores programs and data, a database 13 that stores evaluation sheets, evaluation results, reference information, and the like, and inputs from evaluators and outputs evaluation results An input / output device 14 that connects to the network 2 and a communication device 15 that connects to the network 2 are connected to each other via a bus.

  The database 13 is used for evaluation items used in each evaluation stage, an evaluation item master 31 in which an evaluation sheet describing the evaluation method is stored, information on devices and facilities to be evaluated, and estimation of power generation amount. A reference information master 32 that stores information such as meteorological data and laws and regulations relating to the power generation business, and an evaluation document master 33 that stores an evaluation result in which an evaluation by an evaluator is entered in an evaluation sheet.

  The outline of the three-level evaluation is described below.

[Mobility evaluation]
FIG. 4 shows a method for property evaluation according to the present embodiment. The movable property evaluation can be divided into four stages of environmental evaluation S11, design evaluation S12, business evaluation S13, and future value price estimation S14, and these are collectively obtained as a movable property evaluation result S15.

  FIG. 5 shows evaluation items for environmental evaluation in movable property evaluation. The environmental evaluation S12 is mainly performed by a field survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 5 at the site of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be evaluated, and evaluates the evaluation sheet (environment) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 5 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. ). The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item in, for example, a five-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (environment), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  Further, the evaluator gives an evaluation score for the surrounding environment according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (environment) while referring to the weather data of the reference information master 32 stored in the database 13. Furthermore, while referring to the laws and regulations of the reference information master 32, evaluation points are given for regulations, legal requirements, and the like.

  FIG. 6 shows evaluation items of design evaluation in movable property evaluation. The design evaluation S13 is performed in combination with a document review and a field survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 or 5 and downloads an evaluation sheet (design) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 6 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item in, for example, a five-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (design), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 7 shows evaluation items for business evaluation in movable property evaluation. The business evaluation S14 is mainly performed by a document review. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (business property) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 7 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item in, for example, a five-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (business property), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  In the movable property evaluation result S15, when the evaluation results of the evaluation sheet (environment), the evaluation sheet (design), and the evaluation sheet (business property) are uploaded to the database 13, the server 1 totals the evaluation points. Then, according to a predetermined criterion, the movable property evaluation comprehensive evaluation score is calculated. As an example, each evaluation item is weighted and replaced with a 10-level evaluation index according to the total score.

In the movable property assessment, the following prices are defined as the assessed value of movable property.
・ Construction price: Total construction cost of the initial construction of the solar power generation equipment ・ Disposal price: Price when the solar power generation equipment is disposed of collectively → → Installation area, site area, power generation amount, unit sales price Amount announced and proposed by the company that wishes to purchase ・ Future value price: Difference between power sales revenue and estimated expenses from the time of evaluation to 20 years after installation ・ Expected sale price: Future value price, power generation risk assessment and disaster risk assessment The
This is a price that is considered, and is a reasonable price when sold at the time of evaluation.

  In the trial price calculation S14, the above future value price is calculated. First, the power generation amount from the time of evaluation to 20 years after installation is calculated from the device information, weather data, and the like stored in the reference information master 32 of the database 13. For example, if four years have passed since construction at the time of evaluation, calculate the annual power generation for the fifth year from the solar cell specifications and the monthly average solar radiation, To calculate. If the actual value of power generation from the time of construction to the fourth year is known, the annual power generation calculated based on this may be corrected. Next, the annual power generation from the 6th year to the 20th year is calculated in consideration of the aging of the solar cell and the like.

  By multiplying the annual power generation amount by the unit price of power consumption, the amount of power sold from the time of evaluation (after the fifth year) to 20 years after installation is obtained. Note that the unit price of electric energy charges is estimated in advance for the unit price expected for each year.

Estimated expenses are estimated by legal inspection expenses, general maintenance expenses, general management expenses (personnel expenses, office expenses), insurance premiums, repair expenses every year, and the total amount of expenses from the 5th year to the 20th year is calculated. .
As described above, the future value price is calculated from the following equation.

Future value price = power sale amount-total cost amount The above price including the future value price will be described separately in the section of comprehensive evaluation.

[Power generation risk assessment]
FIG. 8 shows a power generation risk evaluation method according to this embodiment. The power generation risk evaluation can be divided into three stages: document evaluation S21, O & M implementation item evaluation S22, and facility inspection actual inspection S23, and these are collectively put into a power generation risk result S24.

  FIG. 9 shows evaluation items for document evaluation in power generation risk evaluation. The document evaluation S21 is mainly performed by document examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (document) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 9 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. In accordance with the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (document), the evaluator assigns an evaluation score for each evaluation item, for example, in a five-step evaluation, and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 10 shows evaluation items for O & M implementation item evaluation in power generation risk evaluation. The O & M action item evaluation S22 is performed in combination with a document review and a field survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 or 5 and downloads an evaluation sheet (O & M) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 10 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item in, for example, a five-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (O & M), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 11 shows the evaluation items of the facility inspection inspection in the power generation risk evaluation. The facility inspection inspection S23 is mainly performed by an on-site inspection. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 5 at the site of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be evaluated, and evaluates the evaluation sheet (equipment) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 11 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. Download (inspection). The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (equipment inspection), for example, and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result. In addition, the evaluator may test and inspect a part of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be evaluated by the test apparatus 6 and upload the evaluation result from the terminal 4 based on the result.

  In the power generation risk evaluation result S24, when the evaluation results of the evaluation sheet (document), the evaluation sheet (O & M), and the evaluation sheet (equipment inspection) are uploaded to the database 13 in the database 13, the server 1 sets the evaluation score. Aggregate and calculate movable property evaluation comprehensive evaluation points according to predetermined criteria. As an example, each evaluation item is weighted and replaced with a 10-level evaluation index according to the total score.

[Disaster risk assessment]
FIG. 12 shows a disaster risk evaluation method according to the present embodiment. The disaster risk evaluation can be divided into three stages: general information evaluation S31, design book review S32, and local information evaluation S33, and these are combined to produce a disaster risk result S34.

  FIG. 13 shows evaluation items for general information in disaster risk evaluation. The general information evaluation S31 is performed mainly by document examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (general information) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 13 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item in a five-step evaluation, for example, according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (general information) from the weather data of the reference information master 32 stored in the database 13, Upload to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 14 shows the evaluation items for the design book review in the disaster risk assessment. The design book review S32 is mainly performed by document review. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (design book) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 14 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item in, for example, a five-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (design book), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 15 shows evaluation items of local information in disaster risk evaluation. The on-site information evaluation S33 is mainly performed by a field survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 5 at the site of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be evaluated, and evaluates the evaluation sheet (local site) from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13 with the evaluation items shown in FIG. Information). The evaluator gives an evaluation score for each evaluation item, for example, according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (local information), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  In the disaster risk evaluation result S34, when the server 1 uploads the evaluation results of the evaluation sheet (general information), the evaluation sheet (design book), and the evaluation sheet (local information) to the database 13, the evaluation is performed. The points are totaled and a movable property evaluation comprehensive evaluation point is calculated according to a predetermined standard. As an example, each evaluation item is weighted and replaced with a 10-level evaluation index according to the total score.

[Comprehensive evaluation]
In FIG. 2, the comprehensive evaluation S4 after the three-stage evaluation will be described. First, in the server 1, the expected sale price is calculated from the evaluation result stored in the evaluation document master 33 of the database 13 by the following formula.

Expected sale price value = future value price × deviation The deviation is calculated by weighting each of the assessment score of the movable property assessment result S15, the assessment score of the power generation risk assessment result S24, and the assessment index of the disaster risk assessment result S34. This is a result of conversion so that the lower limit is 0.1 and the upper limit is 0.9. Also, the calculated deviation is divided into five stages and used as a comprehensive evaluation result.

  As described above, it is possible to perform the business evaluation of the business operator who sells the electric power with the solar power generation facility based on the three-stage evaluation results, the above-described four evaluation prices, and the comprehensive evaluation.

  The movable property evaluation result is an evaluation result as the movable property (thing) of the photovoltaic power generation equipment, and the result of evaluating the performance and reliability of the hardware and the long-term stability of the hardware based on the business plan are evaluated. It is a result. In addition, based on the power generation risk assessment results, the permanence and operational reliability of business facilities including software are evaluated. Furthermore, the results of disaster risk assessments assess the environmental continuity, business continuity including efforts to comply with laws and regulations, and risk management for unforeseen circumstances.

  As described above, according to the three-stage evaluation result, it is possible to evaluate business facilities including software that are business facilities that are not distributed in the distribution channel. For example, an operator can be rated by comprehensive evaluation that integrates these.

  Further, the disposal price is the price at the time of the lump sum disposal at the time of evaluation, and is the amount presented by a third party who wishes to purchase. On the other hand, the future value price is the difference between the electricity sales revenue and the estimated cost up to 20 years after installation, so if you subtract the disposal price from the future value price, It is the profit that is obtained. The expected sale price is an amount that includes power generation risk assessment and disaster risk assessment in addition to the future value price, so that the profit that the third party can obtain in the future can be expressed more accurately. It will be the amount of money.

  From this, the sale expected value price can be used as an index of so-called due diligence when selling the business equipment and all of the business. In addition, evaluation of future business feasibility is included, so it can be used as a reference for calculating loan judgment, loan amount, and property collateral set amount.

  According to the present embodiment, it is possible to evaluate the business from the operational viewpoint based on the three-stage evaluation results, and the future value as an operator is clarified by calculating the expected sale price. Can provide a business evaluation

1 server 2 network 3-5 terminal 6 test equipment

Claims (2)

A business feasibility evaluation method for evaluating business feasibility of a power generation business by a server connected to an evaluator's terminal,
An evaluator who evaluates the equipment by testing and inspecting the equipment that constitutes the equipment of the operator by using the first terminal and test device of the evaluator who evaluates the equipment of the operator from the database of the server. Evaluation items and evaluation methods for movable property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation, and disaster risk evaluation on the second terminal of the device and the third terminal of the evaluator who performs evaluation in the field at the place where the facility of the operator is installed and a step to send an evaluation sheet that door has been described,
An evaluation sheet filled with the evaluation by the evaluator is received as an evaluation result from the first, second and third terminals, and the evaluation score is totaled for each evaluation sheet and converted into a predetermined evaluation index. And steps to
Calculating a future value price obtained by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the amount of power sold calculated from the amount of power generated from the time of evaluation to a predetermined maturity and the unit price of power consumption;
Weighting each of the evaluation indices converted in each of the evaluation sheets, and multiplying the future value price by a coefficient after the decimal point to calculate the expected value price for sale. Business evaluation method. A business feasibility evaluation system for evaluating business feasibility of a power generation business,
A server having a database for storing an evaluation sheet describing evaluation items and evaluation methods for movable property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation, and disaster risk evaluation;
Evaluation that evaluates equipment by testing and inspecting equipment that constitutes the equipment of the operator by a first device of the evaluator that evaluates the equipment of the business operator connected to the server, and a test device in's second terminal, and the location where the carrier facility is installed, a third terminal of the evaluator to evaluate the physical, receives the evaluation sheet from the server, evaluated by the evaluator A plurality of terminals that transmit the evaluation sheet filled with the server to the server as an evaluation result,
The server
For each evaluation sheet received from the first, second and third terminals, the evaluation points are totaled and converted into a predetermined evaluation index,
Calculate the future value price by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the amount of power sold calculated from the amount of power generated from the time of evaluation to the specified maturity and the unit price of power consumption,
A business feasibility evaluation system characterized by weighting each of the evaluation indexes converted in each of the evaluation sheets, and multiplying the future value price by a coefficient after the decimal point to calculate the expected value price for sale .

Images