JP2017115216A - Molten metal component estimation device and molten metal component estimation method - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a molten metal component estimation device and a molten metal component estimation method which can estimate carbon concentration of molten metal in a blowing process in a refinery processing installation with high accuracy.SOLUTION: A carbon concentration of molten metal in a blowing process in a refinery processing installation can be estimated with high accuracy because an operation processing unit 15 estimates a carbon concentration of the molten metal minimizing evaluation function including a term about difference of a decarburization rate estimated from operating performance information and a decarburization rate estimated from model information and a term about error of income and expenditure balance relational expression of carbon in the molten metal as a carbon concentration of the molten metal in a blowing process.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to a molten metal component estimating apparatus and a molten metal component estimating method for estimating a component concentration of a molten metal during a blowing process in a refining facility.

  In an ironworks, after melting iron ore in a blast furnace, the components and temperature of the molten metal are adjusted in a refining facility. There are various types of refining equipment depending on the purpose of treatment, such as pretreatment equipment, converter, secondary refining equipment. For example, in a converter that is a typical refining equipment, impurities are removed from the molten metal and the temperature is raised by blowing oxygen into the furnace (blowing treatment), and the composition and temperature of the molten metal after the blowing treatment are specified. Control is performed so as to be within the specified range. However, since the oxidation reaction in the molten metal is intense and the molten metal becomes hot, it is difficult to measure the components and temperature in the molten metal every moment. For this reason, in actual operation, the molten metal in the middle of the blowing process is sampled, and based on the information and the blowing reaction model formula, the blowing control until the end of the blowing process (determining the required amount of acid feed and coolant input) ).

  If the information on the composition and temperature of the molten metal can be collected continuously, the calculation accuracy of the blowing control can be greatly improved. At present, information that can be continuously collected includes information on the exhaust gas (flow rate, concentration of each component) in addition to the manipulated variable. The amount of carbon discharged outside the furnace can be estimated by using information on the exhaust gas, and the carbon concentration in the molten metal can be calculated based on the amount of discharged carbon from the mass balance relational expression. However, in general, information on exhaust gas has a large error. For example, the flow rate value of exhaust gas is often estimated from the pressure drop before and after an orifice (throttle) or a venturi pipe is installed in the exhaust gas pipe. However, since the pressure, temperature, and flow rate of the exhaust gas frequently fluctuate greatly, the above-described method tends to increase the estimation error of the flow rate value. From such a background, Patent Document 1 calculates a coefficient for correcting the measurement value based on past results regarding the exhaust gas flow rate of the steel refining process, and further calculates the coefficient based on the analysis result of the molten metal during the blowing process. A method is described that corrects and estimates in real time the carbon concentration in the melt during the blowing process based on the information.

JP-A-9-272913

  However, even with the method described in Patent Document 1, it may be difficult to accurately estimate the carbon concentration in the molten metal during the blowing process. This is a case where the amount of carbon (contained in carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide) exiting as exhaust gas after component analysis of the molten metal during the blowing process is much larger than the amount of carbon remaining in the molten metal. It is the former amount of carbon that is calculated from the exhaust gas information, and the amount of carbon remaining in the molten metal is calculated by subtracting the amount of carbon coming out of the exhaust gas from the estimated amount of carbon at the time of molten metal analysis. For this reason, if the amount of carbon coming out as exhaust gas after component analysis of the melt during the blowing process is much larger than the amount of carbon remaining in the melt, even if the error in the information about the exhaust gas is small, The relative error with respect to the carbon concentration becomes very large, and the carbon concentration of the molten metal cannot be estimated with high accuracy.

  This invention is made | formed in view of the said subject, The objective provides the molten metal component estimation apparatus and the molten metal component estimation method which can estimate the carbon concentration of the molten metal in the middle of the blowing process in a refining equipment with high precision. There is.

  A molten metal component estimation apparatus according to the present invention is a molten metal component estimation apparatus that estimates a component concentration of a molten metal during a blowing process in a refining facility, and includes at least information relating to the flow rate and components of exhaust gas discharged from the refining facility. A performance database for storing operation performance information, a model database for storing model information including at least information related to a model formula for blowing reaction and parameters constituting the model formula, and operation performance information stored in the performance database; Using the model information stored in the model database, the estimation calculation unit that estimates the component concentration of the melt during the blowing process, and the component concentration of the melt during the blowing process estimated by the estimation calculation unit An output device for outputting information, wherein the estimation calculation unit is decarburized estimated from the operation result information The carbon concentration of the molten metal that minimizes the evaluation function including a term relating to the difference between the degree of decarburization and the decarburization rate estimated from the model information and a term relating to an error in the balance balance equation of carbon in the molten metal It is estimated as the carbon concentration of the molten metal on the way.

  In the molten metal component estimation apparatus according to the present invention, in the above invention, the evaluation function includes a square value of a difference between a decarburization speed estimated from the operation result information and a decarburization speed estimated from the model information, and in the molten metal. It is characterized by being comprised by the weighted sum which contains at least one of the square values of the error of the balance-of-carbon balance relational expression as a term.

  A molten metal component estimation method according to the present invention is a molten metal component estimation method for estimating a component concentration of a molten metal during a blowing process in a refining facility, and includes at least information on the flow rate and components of exhaust gas discharged from the refining facility. An estimation calculation step for estimating the component concentration of the molten metal during the blowing process using the operation result information, the model information including at least information relating to the model expression of the blowing reaction and the parameters constituting the model expression, and the estimation calculation An output step for outputting information on the component concentration of the molten metal during the blowing process estimated in the step, wherein the estimation calculation step is estimated from the decarburization speed estimated from the operation performance information and the model information. Minimizing the evaluation function including the term for the difference between the decarburization rate and the term for the error in the balance balance equation of carbon in the molten metal Characterized in that it comprises a step of estimating the carbon concentration of the molten metal that the concentration of carbon blowing process during the melt.

  According to the molten metal component estimation apparatus and the molten metal component estimation method according to the present invention, the carbon concentration of the molten metal during the blowing process in the refining facility can be estimated with high accuracy.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating a configuration of a molten metal component estimation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of the arithmetic processing unit shown in FIG. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a decarburization model curve. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a flow of molten metal component estimation processing according to an embodiment of the present invention.

  Hereinafter, with reference to the drawings, the configuration and operation of a molten metal component estimation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described.

〔Constitution〕
First, with reference to FIG. 1, FIG. 2, the structure of the molten metal component estimation apparatus which is one Embodiment of this invention is demonstrated. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating a configuration of a molten metal component estimation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of the arithmetic processing unit 15 shown in FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 1, a molten metal component estimation apparatus 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention estimates a component concentration of a molten metal 101 during a blowing process in a refining facility 2. The refining equipment 2 includes a converter 100, a lance 102, and a duct 104. The lance 102 is disposed on a molten metal (molten steel) 101 in the converter 100. High-pressure oxygen is ejected from the tip of the lance 102 toward the molten metal 101 below. Impurities in the molten metal 101 are oxidized by this high-pressure oxygen and taken into the slag 103 (blowing process).

At the upper part of the converter 100, a duct 104 for introducing exhaust gas smoke is installed. An exhaust gas detection unit 105 is disposed inside the duct 104. The exhaust gas detection unit 105 detects the flow rate and components (for example, CO, CO ₂ , O ₂ , N ₂ , H ₂ O, Ar, etc.) of the exhaust gas discharged along with the blowing process. The exhaust gas detection unit 105 measures the flow rate of the exhaust gas in the duct 104 based on the differential pressure before and after the orifice provided in the duct 104. The exhaust gas detection unit 105 measures the concentration [%] of each component in the exhaust gas. The flow rate and component concentration of the exhaust gas are measured, for example, in a cycle of several seconds. A signal indicating the detection result of the exhaust gas detection unit 105 is sent to the control terminal 10.

  Stir gas is blown into the molten metal 101 in the converter 100 through a vent 106 formed in the bottom of the converter 100. The stirring gas is an inert gas such as Ar. The stirring gas stirs the molten metal 101 and promotes the reaction between the high-pressure oxygen and the molten metal 101. The flow meter 107 measures the flow rate of the stirring gas blown into the converter 100. Immediately before the start of the blowing process and after the blowing process, the temperature and component concentration of the molten metal 101 are analyzed. The temperature and component concentration of the molten metal 101 are measured once or a plurality of times during the blowing process. Based on the measured temperature and component concentration, the supply amount (acid supply amount) and rate (acid supply rate) of high-pressure oxygen and stirring are performed. The gas flow rate (stirring gas flow rate) and the like are controlled.

  A blowing process control system to which a molten metal component estimation device 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied includes a control terminal 10, a molten metal component estimation device 1, and a display device 20 as main components. The control terminal 10 is constituted by an information processing device such as a personal computer or a workstation, and controls the amount of acid supplied, the rate of acid supply, and the stirring gas flow rate so that the component concentration of the molten metal 101 is within a desired range. Collect data on the actual values of the amount of acid delivered, the rate of acid delivery and the flow rate of the stirring gas.

  The molten metal component estimation device 1 is configured by an information processing device such as a personal computer or a workstation, and includes an input device 11, a model database (model DB) 12, a performance database (result DB) 13, and a calculation result database (calculation result DB) 14. An arithmetic processing unit 15 and an output device 16.

  The input device 11 is an input interface through which various measurement results and performance information related to the refining facility 2 are input. Examples of the input device 11 include a keyboard, a mouse, a pointing device, a data receiving device, and a graphical user interface (GUI). The input device 11 receives actual data, parameter setting values, and the like from the outside, writes the information in the model DB 12, and transmits the information to the arithmetic processing unit 15.

  The input device 11 receives a measurement result of the temperature and component concentration of at least one of the molten metal 101 before the start of the blowing process in the refining facility 2 and during the blowing process. The measurement results for temperature and component concentration are input to the input device 11 by, for example, manual input by an operator, reading input from a recording medium, or the like. The record information is input to the input device 11 from the control terminal 10.

  The model DB 12 stores information related to the model formula relating to the blowing process reaction in the refining facility 2. The model DB 12 stores the model formula of the blowing process reaction and its parameters as information related to the model formula related to the blowing process reaction. The model DB 12 stores various information input to the input device 11. Details of the information related to the model formula stored in the model DB 12 will be described later.

  The record DB 13 stores record information input from the control terminal 10 via the input device 11. The actual information includes information on the flow rate and component concentration of the exhaust gas measured by the exhaust gas detection unit 105, information on the amount of acid sent and the rate of acid delivery, information on the stirring gas flow rate, and the input amount of raw materials (main raw materials and auxiliary raw materials). Information, components of the molten metal 101, temperature information, and the like are included.

  The calculation result DB 14 stores an estimation calculation result of the component concentration in the molten metal 101 by the calculation processing unit 15.

  The arithmetic processing unit 15 is an arithmetic processing device such as a CPU and controls the entire operation of the molten metal component estimation device 1. As shown in FIG. 2, the arithmetic processing unit 15 functions as a record information reading unit 15a, a model information reading unit 15b, and an estimation calculation unit 15c by executing a control program. The functions of these units will be described later.

  The output device 16 outputs an estimation calculation result of the component concentration in the molten metal 101 by the arithmetic processing unit 15. The output device 16 is connected to the control terminal 10 and the display device 20, and outputs an estimation calculation result to the control terminal 10 and the display device 20. The control terminal 10 controls the operation amount such as the acid supply amount, the acid supply speed, and the stirring gas flow rate based on the estimation calculation result sent from the output device 16. The display device (CRT) 20 displays the transition of the estimation calculation result sent from the output device 16 as a chart on a display unit such as a screen.

[Configuration of model formula]
Next, the model formula stored in the model DB 12 will be described with reference to FIG.

In the present embodiment, the model formula stored in the model DB 12 is a decarburization model formula showing the relationship between the carbon concentration C in the molten metal 101 and the decarburization efficiency R during the blowing process reaction. Here, the decarburization efficiency R means the amount of carbon removed from the molten metal 101 with respect to the unit oxygen amount blown into the converter 100. For example, when carbon C in the molten metal 101 is oxidized to CO ₂ by blown oxygen, 1 kmol of carbon (12 kg) is decarburized with 22.4 [Nm ³ ] (= 1 kmol) of oxygen. Therefore (C + O ₂ → CO ₂ ), the decarburization efficiency R is calculated as shown in the following formula (1). When carbon C in molten metal 101 becomes carbon monoxide CO, 2 kmol of carbon (24 kg) is decarburized with 22.4 [Nm ³ ] (= 1 kmol) of oxygen (2C + O ₂ → 2CO) for decarburization efficiency R is calculated as equation (2) below. In the latter reaction, all of the oxygen blown is used for the production of carbon monoxide CO, so that more carbon can be removed with a small amount of oxygen, and the decarburization efficiency R increases.

The decarburization model formula is determined based on, for example, the blowing process model, and the decarburization efficiency curve shown in FIG. 3 is defined by the following formula (3). Here, in Formula (3), C indicates the carbon concentration [%] in the molten metal 101, and the shape of the curve indicates that the larger the carbon concentration C, the higher the decarburization efficiency R. Parameters m, β, and Rmax all indicate model parameters and are defined as positive constants. The parameter m indicates the lower limit value of the carbon concentration C in the molten metal. In this embodiment, it is assumed that the carbon concentration C does not become smaller than this value m. The parameter β is set as a function of the weight of the slag 103 in the converter 100. The value of the parameter β is determined based on the operation amount such as the weight of the auxiliary raw material (lime or the like) charged into the converter 100. The parameter Rmax indicates the upper limit value of the decarburization efficiency R (hereinafter simply referred to as “upper limit efficiency”). The upper limit efficiency Rmax is a value obtained by adding the upper limit value of the decarburization reaction amount by the oxygen in the molten metal 101 and the oxygen in the slag 103 to the decarburization efficiency R in the above reaction (2C + O ₂ → 2CO). Information about these parameters and decarburization model formulas is stored in the model DB 12. The model DB 12 stores the operation condition and a parameter (function) set corresponding to the operation condition in association with each other so that different settings can be made according to the operation condition.

Decarburization reaction models based on the decarburization model formula shown in Formula (3) are shown in Formulas (4) and (5) below. In Equations (4) and (5), t means a subscript representing the order of time series information, and the t-th next estimation result is indexed as t + 1. Variables with the same index mean variables with the same time. Also, _{C t} denotes the molten metal in the carbon concentration at time t (%), _{O t} insufflation acid rate on at the time t is _{^{(Nm 3 / Hr), y}} t decarburization rate (kg at the time t / Hr) indicates, Delta] t represents the time interval t-1 time ~t time (one step) (sec, a fixed _{value), W total} is the main raw material and the total value of the charging amount of the auxiliary material (ton, It shows a fixed value during blowing.

In Equation (4), the second term means the carbon concentration that is oxidized by the decarburization reaction, and the carbon concentration in the molten metal is reduced by this term. In this embodiment, when estimating the carbon concentration in the molten metal, it is assumed that the operation does not input the auxiliary material containing carbon, but the auxiliary material containing carbon is input during the estimation. In this case, a term of an increase in the carbon concentration in the molten metal due to the carbon in the auxiliary material introduced between the time t-1 and the time t is added to the right side of the mathematical formula (4). Equation (5) is a formula for decarburization rate, y _t can be calculated from the exhaust gas information. Information about these parameters and decarburization model formulas is stored in the model DB 12. The model DB 12 stores the operation condition and a parameter (function) set corresponding to the operation condition in association with each other so that different settings can be made according to the operation condition.

  In the molten metal component estimation apparatus 1 having such a configuration, the calculation processing unit 15 executes the molten metal component estimation process described below, thereby improving the estimation accuracy of the molten carbon concentration during the blowing process. Hereinafter, with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. 4, the operation of the arithmetic processing unit 15 when executing the molten metal component estimation processing will be described.

[Melt estimation process]
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a flow of the molten metal component estimation process according to the embodiment of the present invention. The flowchart shown in FIG. 4 starts at the timing when a specified event occurs during the blowing process, and the molten metal component estimation process proceeds to step S1. In addition, as a designated event, the time of arrival of the component concentration information of the molten metal sample in the middle of the blowing process can be exemplified.

  In the process of step S1, the record information reading unit 15a collects charge operation information during the blowing process from the record DB 13. The collected operation information includes the temperature and component concentration of the melt before the blowing process, the target temperature and target component concentration of the melt after the blowing process, the component concentration of the melt during the blowing process, the type of blowing, the blown oxygen The planned quantity, lance height planned value, auxiliary material input quantity planned value, product standard, equipment used (lance) type information, etc. are included. Then, the performance information reading unit 15a outputs the collected operation information to the estimation calculation unit 15c. Thereby, the process of step S1 is completed and the molten metal component estimation process proceeds to the process of step S2.

  In the process of step S2, the model information reading unit 15b reads information on the decarburization model formula and its parameters from the model DB 12, and outputs the read information to the estimation calculation unit 15c. Thereby, the process of step S2 is completed and the molten metal component estimation process proceeds to the process of step S3.

  In the process of step S3, the estimation calculation unit 15c collects time series information necessary for performing the estimation calculation of the carbon concentration in the molten metal. The time series information includes the amount of the upper blowing acid and the exhaust gas information (flow rate and component information). The range of time-series information collected is a range from a time point T seconds before the current time to the current time. The processing of step S3 and step S4 described later is executed every time Δt, and Δt is set to an integral multiple (however, 1 or more) of the time series information collection time interval. In the present embodiment, since the collection interval such as the exhaust gas flow rate is assumed to be 1 sec, Δt is set to a value such as 1 sec, 2 sec, 3 sec or the like. Thereby, the process of step S3 is completed and the molten metal component estimation process proceeds to the process of step S4.

In the process of step S4, the estimation calculation unit 15c performs an estimation calculation of the carbon concentration in the molten metal. Specifically, the estimation calculation unit 15c calculates the melt carbon concentration C _t−T ,..., C _t that minimizes the evaluation function shown in the following mathematical formula (6) as an estimated value of the melt carbon concentration. Note that t is an index corresponding to the current time, and t−T is an index corresponding to a time T seconds before the current time.

The first item of the equation (6) is square value of the error of account balance equation of carbon in the melt, in other words, reduce an error of the molten metal in the carbon concentration C _t calculated by equation (4) It is a term to do. The second item and the third item of Equation (6) are the square values of the difference between the decarburization rate calculated from the decarburization model equation and the decarburization rate calculated from the exhaust gas information. In other words, the second item is a term for reducing the error of the decarburization efficiency curve shown in FIG. 3, and the third item is the result of the previous estimation calculation (carbon concentration in the molten metal) and the current estimation calculation. This is a term for reducing the difference from the result. The denominators σ, α, and β are all fixed (weight) parameters read from the model DB 12, and different values can be set according to the operation information collected in the process of step S1. Y _t−τ ′ and C _t−τ ′ are the decarburization rate τ seconds before the current time (calculated from the exhaust gas information) and the melt τ seconds before the current time obtained by the previous estimation calculation, respectively. Means medium carbon concentration. That is, y _t−τ ′ is a value calculated by the following formula (7).

Here, in Expression (7), V _t−τ is the exhaust gas flow rate (Nm ³ / Hr) τ seconds before the current time, and X _t−τ ^CO is the CO concentration (%) in the exhaust gas τ seconds before the current time. , X _t−τ ^CO2 means the CO ₂ concentration (%) in the exhaust gas τ seconds before the current time. Note that if a delay occurs due to the time required for collecting the component analysis of the exhaust gas flow rate, the CO concentration, and the CO ₂ concentration, the equation (7) is calculated by sliding the time by the delay time. In this case, since the exhaust gas information has not been collected in the time zone near the current time, it is impossible to calculate Equation (7). However, the time zone that could not be calculated is described in the second term of Equation (6). What is necessary is just to perform estimation calculation without including.

Further, when it is known that there is a deviation in the measured values of the exhaust gas flow rate and the component concentration and the calculation formula (7) includes an error, the evaluation function shown in the formula (6) is expressed by the following formula (8). The format shown in is good. An error coefficient D is added to the second term of the formula (8), and a square error term between the error count D and its standard value D ′ is added to the four items. D ′ and γ are setting parameters, and are read from the model DB 12. Further, D ′ is set based on past results and experiences. In this case, the evaluation function is minimized by adjusting the carbon concentration C _t-T ,..., C _t and the variable D in the molten metal. In addition, in Formulas (7) and (8), if there is a molten carbon concentration analysis value during blowing, that value may be substituted for C ′ in the third term.

  There are various methods for minimizing the evaluation function shown in Equation (6) and Equation (8). For example, if nonlinear programming such as the quasi-Newton method is used, it is possible to obtain a calculation result at high speed. Yes (see references (by Hiroshi Konno and Hiroshi Yamashita: Nonlinear Programming, Nikka Giren)). Thereby, the process of step S4 is completed and the molten metal component estimation process proceeds to the process of step S5.

  In the process of step S5, the estimation calculation unit 15c determines whether or not the blowing process has been completed. As a result of the determination, when the blowing process is finished (step S5: Yes), the estimation calculation unit 15c finishes the series of molten metal component estimation processes. On the other hand, when the blowing process has not ended (step S5: No), the estimation calculation unit 15c advances the molten metal component estimation process to the process of step S6.

  In the process of step S6, the estimation calculation unit 15c determines whether Δt seconds have elapsed since the previous estimation calculation was performed. If Δt seconds have elapsed as a result of the determination (step S6: Yes), the estimation calculation unit 15c returns the molten metal component estimation process to the process of step S3. On the other hand, when Δt seconds have not elapsed (step S6: No), the estimation calculation unit 15c returns the molten metal component estimation process to the process of step S5.

  As is clear from the above description, in the molten metal component estimation process that is one embodiment of the present invention, the estimation calculation unit 15c is configured to calculate the decarburization speed estimated from the operation result information and the decarburization speed estimated from the model information. The carbon concentration of the molten metal that minimizes the evaluation function including the term relating to the difference between the two and the term relating to the error in the balance balance equation of carbon in the molten metal is estimated as the carbon concentration of the molten metal during the blowing process. According to such a configuration, since two types of model formulas, a decarburization rate calculation formula and a mass balance balance relation formula, are used, even when an error occurs in the exhaust gas information, the estimation error is suppressed to a small level. It is possible to accurately estimate the carbon concentration of the molten metal during the blowing process in the refining equipment.

  The embodiment to which the invention made by the present inventors is applied has been described above, but the present invention is not limited by the description and the drawings that constitute a part of the disclosure of the present invention. That is, other embodiments, examples, operational techniques, and the like made by those skilled in the art based on this embodiment are all included in the scope of the present invention.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Molten component estimation apparatus 2 Blowing equipment 10 Control terminal 11 Input device 12 Model database (model DB)
13 Achievement database (achievement DB)
14 Calculation result database (Calculation result DB)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 15 Arithmetic processing part 15a Result information reading part 15b Model information reading part 15c Estimation calculation part 16 Output device 20 Display apparatus 100 Converter 101 Molten metal (molten steel)
102 Lance 103 Slag 104 Duct 105 Exhaust gas detection unit 106 Vent hole 107 Flow meter

Claims (3)

A melt component estimation device for estimating a component concentration of a melt during a blowing process in a refining facility,
A performance database storing operation performance information including at least information on the flow rate and components of exhaust gas discharged from the refining equipment,
A model database for storing model information including at least information relating to a model formula of a blowing reaction and parameters constituting the model formula;
Using the operation result information stored in the result database and the model information stored in the model database, an estimation calculation unit that estimates the component concentration of the melt during the blowing process,
An output device that outputs information related to the component concentration of the melt during the blowing process estimated by the estimation calculation unit,
The estimation calculation unit is a term related to a difference between a decarburization rate estimated from the operation result information and a decarburization rate estimated from the model information, a term related to an error of a balance balance equation of carbon in the molten metal, and The molten metal component estimation apparatus characterized by estimating the carbon concentration of the molten metal which minimizes the evaluation function containing as a carbon concentration of the molten metal in the middle of blowing process.   The evaluation function includes a square value of a difference between a decarburization rate estimated from the operation performance information and a decarburization rate estimated from the model information and a square value of an error of a balance balance equation of carbon in the molten metal. The molten metal component estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the molten metal component estimation apparatus is configured by a weighted sum including at least one of the two as terms. A molten metal component estimation method for estimating a component concentration of a molten metal during a blowing process in a refining facility,
Blowing treatment using operation result information including at least information on the flow rate and components of exhaust gas discharged from the refining facility, and model information including at least information on a model expression of the blowing reaction and parameters constituting the model expression An estimation calculation step for estimating the component concentration of the molten metal on the way;
Outputting the information on the component concentration of the melt during the blowing process estimated in the estimation calculation step,
The estimation calculation step includes a term relating to a difference between a decarburization rate estimated from the operation performance information and a decarburization rate estimated from the model information, a term relating to an error in a balance balance equation of carbon in the molten metal, A molten metal component estimation method comprising the step of estimating a carbon concentration of a molten metal that minimizes an evaluation function including a carbon concentration of the molten metal during a blowing process.

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