JP2016081374A - Failure tendency determination device, failure tendency determination method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a failure tendency determination device for highly accurately detecting the tendency of a failure related to a maintenance management object device since whether a failure having occurred in a device is a failure within a range estimated for the device or a failure beyond the estimated range has a significant meaning in the maintenance management of the device.SOLUTION: A failure tendency determination device includes: an input part for inputting the failure information of a maintenance management object device; and a determination part for determining whether the tendency of a failure having occurred in the maintenance management object device is a failure tendency within a preliminarily estimated range or a failure tendency beyond the preliminarily estimated range.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a failure tendency determination device, a failure tendency determination method, and a program. In particular, the present invention relates to a failure tendency determination device, a failure tendency determination method, and a program for an electronic device such as an information processing device.

  Information systems, communication systems, and the like are often configured by combining a plurality of devices, and it is required to efficiently maintain and manage these devices. For example, if a device failure occurrence limit rate is determined at the stage of device design and the device failure occurrence rate (failure rate) exceeds the failure occurrence limit rate during actual system operation, It is determined that an unexpected failure has occurred.

  Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for determining the effectiveness of a detailed sign pattern used when detecting a sign of a failure.

JP 2014-102661 A

  The disclosure of the above prior art document is incorporated herein by reference. The following analysis was made by the present inventors.

  In the determination based on the failure occurrence limit rate as described above, there is a possibility that a countermeasure for the cause of the failure is delayed. Normally, any device cannot fail, and there is a failure rate unique to the device. Therefore, when a failure occurs in a certain device, it is important in the maintenance management of the device whether the failure that has occurred is within the range expected for the device or whether the failure that has occurred exceeds the expected range. It has a meaning. For example, if the failure that has occurred is a failure within the range assumed for the device, and if the failure has occurred accidentally, it is not necessary to take measures against the cause of the failure. That is, for the trouble that can occur normally, the man-hour and cost for confirming the phenomenon and the cause of the trouble are unnecessary.

  On the other hand, even if the frequency of occurrence of a fault exceeds the assumption, if the fault is regarded as a fault that can normally occur, a necessary countermeasure is delayed. In addition, if it is not determined whether the failure is an expected failure or an unexpected failure, time and cost are spent on maintenance such as repair of the device, and it is cheaper to replace the entire device afterwards. Sometimes it is understood. Or, if an unexpected failure has occurred in the equipment due to a difference in the production lot, if the fact is not known, other lots may be subject to repair, etc., and the necessary cost and time may be enormous. There is.

  It is an object of the present invention to provide a failure tendency determination device, a failure tendency determination method, and a program capable of detecting a failure tendency related to a device to be maintained and managed with high accuracy.

  According to the first aspect of the present invention, a tendency of a failure occurring in the maintenance management target device is assumed in advance based on the input unit for inputting the failure information of the maintenance management target device and the history of the failure information. A failure tendency determination device is provided that includes a determination unit that determines whether the failure tendency is within a predetermined range or the failure tendency is not within a previously assumed range.

  According to the second aspect of the present invention, a failure tendency of the maintenance management target device is assumed in advance based on the step of inputting the failure information of the maintenance management target device and the history of the failure information. Determining a failure tendency within a range or a failure tendency outside a range assumed in advance.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, a tendency of a failure occurring in the maintenance management target device is assumed in advance based on the process of inputting the failure information of the maintenance management target device and the history of the failure information. There is provided a program that causes a computer that controls a failure tendency determination apparatus to execute a process for determining whether a failure tendency is within a range or a failure tendency that is outside a range that is assumed in advance.
This program can be recorded on a computer-readable storage medium. The storage medium may be non-transient such as a semiconductor memory, a hard disk, a magnetic recording medium, an optical recording medium, or the like. The present invention can also be embodied as a computer program product.

  According to each aspect of the present invention, there are provided a failure tendency determination device, a failure tendency determination method, and a program that contribute to detecting a failure tendency related to an apparatus that is an object of maintenance management with high accuracy.

It is a figure for demonstrating the outline | summary of one Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of a structure of the failure tendency determination system which concerns on 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of an internal structure of the failure tendency determination apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the information registered into the information database at the time of a failure. It is a figure which shows an example of the information registered into the failure location database. It is a figure which shows an example of the information registered into the failure content database. It is a figure which shows an example of the information registered into the object apparatus database. It is a figure which shows an example of the information registered into the failure rate characteristic database. It is a figure for demonstrating a bathtub curve. It is a figure for demonstrating an approximate line. It is a figure for demonstrating an approximate quadratic curve. It is a flowchart which shows an example of operation | movement of a failure tendency determination apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the failure tendency determination part which concerns on 2nd Embodiment.

  First, an outline of one embodiment will be described. Note that the reference numerals of the drawings attached to the outline are attached to the respective elements for convenience as an example for facilitating understanding, and the description of the outline is not intended to be any limitation.

  As described above, when a failure occurs in a device, whether the failure that has occurred is within the expected range of the device or whether the failure that has occurred exceeds the expected range depends on the maintenance management of the device. It has an important meaning. Therefore, there is a demand for a failure tendency determination device that contributes to detecting a failure tendency with respect to a device that is a maintenance management target with high accuracy.

  Therefore, as an example, the failure tendency determination apparatus 100 shown in FIG. 1 is provided. The failure tendency determination apparatus 100 includes a failure within a range in which a tendency of a failure that has occurred in a maintenance management target device is predicted in advance based on an input unit 101 that inputs failure information of the maintenance management target device and a history of failure information. And a determination unit 102 that determines whether the tendency is a failure tendency that is outside of a presumed range.

  For example, the failure tendency determination apparatus 100 calculates the failure rate of the maintenance management target device included in the system based on the history of failure information. If the calculated failure rate is lower than the normally planned failure rate, the failure tendency determination device 100 determines that the failure tendency is within a presumed range, and if the calculated failure rate is greater than or equal to the normally planned failure, the failure tendency determination device 100 determines in advance. It is determined that the failure tendency is out of the expected range. In other words, the failure tendency determination apparatus 100 calculates the actual failure rate of the maintenance management target device included in the operating system based on the history of the failure information. It can be detected with high accuracy.

  Hereinafter, specific embodiments will be described in more detail with reference to the drawings. In addition, in each embodiment, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected to the same component and the description is abbreviate | omitted.

[First Embodiment]
The first embodiment will be described in more detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the failure tendency determination system according to the first embodiment. The failure tendency determination system includes a plurality of maintenance management target devices 10 and a failure tendency determination device 20.

  The plurality of maintenance management target devices 10 include, for example, personal computers (PCs) 10a-1 to 10a-100, servers 10b-1 to 10b-100, and printers 10c-1 to 10c-100. . In the following description, when there is no particular reason to distinguish the personal computers 10a-1 to 10a-100, they are simply referred to as “personal computer 10a”. Similarly, the servers 10b-1 to 10b-100 and the printers 10c-1 to 10c-100 are also referred to as “server 10b” and “printer 10c” as appropriate.

  The plurality of maintenance management target devices 10 and the failure tendency determination device 20 are connected to each other via a network. The failure tendency determination device 20 is a device that determines whether a failure tendency of a maintenance management target device is within a normally assumed range or exceeds an assumed range when a failure occurs in the maintenance management target device 10. It is.

  The failure tendency within the assumed range indicates a situation in which a failure has occurred in the maintenance target device 10 with a probability that is the same as or less than the probability that the device is expected to fail. The failure tendency exceeding the assumed range indicates a situation in which a failure has occurred in the maintenance target device 10 with a probability that is greater than or equal to the probability that the device is expected to fail.

  In the following description, a failure tendency within an assumed range is indicated as “normal failure tendency”, and a failure tendency exceeding the assumed range is indicated as “abnormal failure tendency”. For example, consider a case in which it is known in advance that the probability that a personal computer of the same type as the personal computer 10a shown in FIG. In this case, if the failure rate in the operation time of 1000 hours of the personal computer 10a operated in the failure tendency determination system is 4%, the failure tendency of the personal computer 10a is “normal failure tendency”. On the other hand, if the failure rate at the operating time 1000 hours of the personal computer 10a currently in operation is 10%, the failure tendency of the personal computer 10a is “abnormal failure tendency”.

  The maintenance management target device 10 has a function of notifying the failure tendency determination device 20 of the contents when a failure occurs in the own device. Specifically, a failure diagnosis application is installed in each maintenance management target device 10, and when a failure occurs in the own device, the failure diagnosis application notifies the failure tendency determination device 20 of the details of the failure. .

  Even if a device (not shown) that monitors the operation of the maintenance management target device 10 monitors the occurrence of a failure in the maintenance management target device 10, the monitoring device notifies the failure trend determination device 20 of the details of the failure. Good. That is, the maintenance management target device 10 or its monitoring device notifies the failure tendency determination device 20 of detailed information of the failure periodically (at a time specified in advance) or when a failure occurs.

  An operator or the like who is in charge of maintenance management of the maintenance management target device 10 inputs detailed information on a failure that has occurred in the maintenance management target device 10 to the failure tendency determination device 20 using an operation device such as a keyboard or a mouse. The operator may input information related to the failure of the device to the failure tendency determination device 20 using an external storage device such as a USB (Universal Serial Bus) memory.

  The failure tendency determination device 20 determines the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 based on these pieces of information. The failure tendency determination device 20 calculates a failure tendency when detailed failure information is input from the outside, or when a failure tendency output of the maintenance management target device 10 is requested by a system administrator, an operator, or the like. And output to the outside.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of an internal configuration of the failure tendency determination apparatus 20. Referring to FIG. 3, the failure tendency determination device 20 includes an input unit 21, a failure tendency determination unit 22, an output unit 23, a failure time information database (DB; Data Base) 24, a failure occurrence site database 25, A failure content database 26, a target device database 27, and a failure rate characteristic database 28 are included.

  The input unit 21 is means for inputting information notified by the maintenance management target device 10 and information input by the operator. In the following description, information that is automatically notified to the failure tendency determination device 20 when a failure occurs in the maintenance management target device 10 is referred to as automatic sending information. Information manually input by the operator to the failure tendency determination apparatus 20 is denoted as failure recovery work information. Further, the failure recovery work information and the automatic sending information are collectively referred to as failure information.

  The failure information includes (1) failed device identification information, (2) failure occurrence information, (3) failure occurrence site information, and (4) failure content information.

  The fault device identification information is information for identifying and identifying the maintenance management target device 10 in which the fault has occurred. For example, the serial number (serial NO) of the device is used as faulty device identification information. Alternatively, a maintenance contract number associated with the device may be used as the failure device identification information. Alternatively, the device name, the device model number, and the like may be used as the failure device identification information.

  The failure diagnosis application installed in the maintenance management target device 10 or the like acquires at least one of these pieces of information from the internal hard disk or the like, and notifies the failure tendency determination device 20 of the information by including it in the failure information. In addition, when the operator inputs failure recovery work information to the failure tendency determination device 20, the name or model number of the device that has failed from among the names that are predetermined using a device such as a mouse (among the names listed). You may employ | adopt the method of selecting.

  Furthermore, when details such as the name and model number of the device are unknown, the operator may input the device type (eg, personal computer, server, etc.) to the failure tendency determination device 20. This is because the same type of device may exhibit a similar failure tendency.

  As described above, the faulty device identification information may be any information that can identify the faulty device, and any input method may be adopted.

  The failure occurrence time information is information relating to the occurrence time of the failure such as the time when the failure occurred in the maintenance target apparatus 10 and the operation time. For example, the failure occurrence date is used as failure occurrence information. Although details will be described later, in the target device database 27, device operation dates indicating the sales start time, the shipping start time, etc. are registered for each device, and the device is determined from the date of failure and the operation date of the device. The number of working days can be calculated.

  Not only the date of failure occurrence but also the date or time and date information added thereto may be used as the failure occurrence time information. Alternatively, the operation period of the maintenance target apparatus 10 in which the failure has occurred may be used as the failure occurrence information. Specifically, the operation period from the time of initial start-up (when new or delivered) until a failure occurs may be used as the failure occurrence information. The operating period is expressed in the form of days, hours, etc., but is not limited to these, and any index may be used as long as it indicates the length of time. The accumulated energization time in the maintenance target apparatus 10 in which the failure has occurred may be used as the failure occurrence information. As the cumulative energization time of the maintenance management target device 10, not only the time when the power is supplied to the maintenance management target device 10, but also the operation rate cumulative value of the central processing unit, the hard disk access count cumulative value, and the like can be used as indices. . Alternatively, the time when a failure occurs in the maintenance management target device 10 may be used as the failure occurrence time information. More specifically, information that can specify in which time zone a failure has occurred in one day may be used as the failure occurrence information.

  The failure diagnosis application such as the maintenance management target device 10 calculates at least one of these pieces of information, and notifies the failure tendency determination device 20 of the information by including it in the failure information. Similarly, the operator inputs at least one of the above information to the failure tendency determination apparatus 20. As described above, the failure time information may be information on a time related to a failure that has occurred in the maintenance management target device 10 and may be information having a causal relationship with the failure.

  The fault occurrence part information is information for specifying a part that causes a fault occurrence in the maintenance management target device 10. For example, a part name, a package name, a module name, a unit part name, etc. can be used as the fault occurrence site information. The failure diagnosis application such as the maintenance management target device 10 includes at least one of these pieces of information in the failure information and notifies the failure tendency determination device 20.

  Alternatively, the operator may select a part causing the failure from the list and input it to the failure tendency determination apparatus 20 as failure occurrence site information. The fault occurrence site information may be any information as long as it is information that can identify the site where the fault has occurred.

  The failure content information is information indicating the specific content of the failure that has occurred in the maintenance management target device 10. For example, information such as “the power cannot be turned on” or “the screen is completely dark” is the failure content information. The fault content information may be any information as long as the fault content can be specified. For example, the type of failure may be the failure content information.

  The failure diagnosis application such as the maintenance management target device 10 includes the information obtained as a result of the failure diagnosis as described above in the failure information and notifies the failure tendency determination device 20. Alternatively, the operator may select from the listed failure cases and input the failure content information to the failure tendency determination device 20.

  Although the failure information has been described with specific examples, the content of the failure information is not intended to be limited. Further, the failure information does not need to include all of the above (1) to (4), and is selected as necessary.

  The input unit 21 distributes and registers information included in the failure information in various databases. Of the information included in the failure information, the input unit 21 registers failure occurrence time information in the failure occurrence information database 24.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of information registered in the failure information database 24. The input unit 21 registers one set (pair) of fault device identification information and fault occurrence information as one record in the fault information database 24. For example, referring to FIG. 4, when a fault occurs in the personal computer 10a-11, the serial number “A11” of the personal computer 10a-11 is registered as faulty device identification information in the fault information, and a fault occurs as fault time information. The date (June 14, 2014) and the accumulated energization time (800 hours) are registered (top record). When a failure occurs in the personal computer 10a-13, the maintenance contract number and the failure occurrence information related to the personal computer 10a-13 are registered as the second record.

  Whenever the failure information is acquired, the input unit 21 associates the failure device identification information of the maintenance management target device 10 in which the failure has occurred with the failure occurrence time information and registers them in the failure time information database 24.

  The input unit 21 registers failure occurrence site information in the failure occurrence site database 25 among the information included in the failure information.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of information registered in the failure occurrence site database 25. For example, referring to FIG. 5, when a failure occurs in the personal computer 10 a-11, the serial number “A11” of the personal computer 10 a-11 is registered as the failure device identification information of the failure information, and “hard disk” is registered as the failure site information. "," Motherboard ", and" connection cable "are registered (top record).

  The input unit 21 registers failure content information in the failure content database 26 among the information included in the failure information.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of information registered in the failure content database 26. For example, referring to FIG. 6, when a failure occurs in the personal computer 10 a-11, the serial number “A11” of the personal computer 10 a-11 is registered as the failure device identification information of the failure information, and “cannot be started” as the failure content information. "Etc. are registered (the top record).

  4 to 6, the faulty device field is described for ease of understanding, and is a field that is not necessary for an actual database.

  In this way, the input unit 21 registers failure information in various databases and accumulates history information regarding failures that have occurred in each device.

  Next, the target device database 27 and the failure rate characteristic database 28 will be described.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of information registered in the target device database 27. The target device database 27 is a database for storing details regarding the maintenance management target device 10. Referring to FIG. 7, the target device database 27 stores the operation date (date of introduction to the system) for each maintenance management target device 10.

  The target device database 27 stores information for identifying each maintenance management target device 10. Specifically, the target device database 27 stores information of the same type as the information described as the faulty device identification information (for example, a serial number). Although details will be described later, the failure tendency determination unit 22 can acquire detailed information about the maintenance management target device 10 in which the failure has occurred by searching the target device database 27. More specifically, even if any of “serial number”, “maintenance contract number”, “device name”, and “device model number” is input as faulty device identification information, by referring to the target device database 27, The failure tendency determination unit 22 can uniquely identify the necessary maintenance management target device 10 based on the failure device identification information. If the maintenance target device 10 in which the failure has occurred can be identified from the failed device identification information, the failure tendency determination unit 22 can also know the operating date of the device.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of information registered in the failure rate characteristic database 28. The failure rate characteristic database 28 is a database for storing the failure rate characteristic for each of the same type devices as the maintenance management target device 10 and their constituent parts. Referring to FIG. 8, a bathtub curve is registered as a failure rate characteristic of the entire personal computer 10a.

  The failure rate of the maintenance management target device 10 can often be expressed by a so-called bathtub curve. The bathtub curve includes an initial failure period in which the failure rate is high, an accidental failure period in which the failure rate converges to a low level, and a wear failure period in which the failure rate increases again. In other words, the maintenance target device 10 has a high failure rate due to an initial failure at first, the failure rate decreases during the lifetime, and at the end of the lifetime, the failure rate increases due to the lifetime of the components constituting the device. Often have. Eventually, repair is impossible and repair costs exceed new product purchase costs, and the lifetime of the maintenance management target device 10 is reached.

  When the bathtub curve is used for the failure rate characteristic, the failure rates in the three periods are expressed by mathematical expressions and registered in the database. For example, referring to FIG. 9, when the period of time t0 to t1 is an initial failure period, and the failure rate of the period can be approximated by a linear line, the straight line and time t1 (initial failure period and accidental failure) Period boundary) is registered in the failure rate characteristic database 28 (see the top record in FIG. 8). Similarly, the accidental failure period, the wear failure period, and the failure rate during these periods are registered in the failure rate characteristic database 28.

  Referring to FIG. 8, an approximate straight line is registered as a failure rate characteristic of a mother board that is one of the parts constituting the personal computer 10a, and an approximate quadratic curve is registered as a failure rate characteristic of a hard disk.

  The failure rate characteristic registered in the failure rate characteristic database 28 may be any as long as it indicates a predetermined lifetime of the maintenance management target device 10 or its component part (part). The life of the maintenance management target device 10 may be a standard life obtained from the device manufacturer or an average life. Further, the life of the parts (parts) constituting the maintenance management target apparatus 10 may be a standard life obtained from a parts manufacturer or the like, or may be a design life. Alternatively, the failure rate characteristic may be calculated with reference to the component having the shortest lifetime among the components used in the maintenance management target apparatus 10.

  Alternatively, the failure rate characteristic may be calculated from the result of an acceleration test performed on the maintenance management target apparatus 10 or a single component with the environmental temperature raised. For example, an acceleration test is performed on a plurality of maintenance management target devices 10 and the failure time is graphed. As a result, when the relationship between time and failure rate can be approximated by a straight line (see FIG. 10), the failure rate characteristic is expressed by an approximate straight line. Similarly, when the relationship between time and failure rate can be approximated by a quadratic curve (see FIG. 11), the failure rate characteristic is expressed by a quadratic curve.

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 is triggered by the input of failure information by the input unit 21 or triggered by an instruction from the outside, based on the history of failure information registered in various databases, and the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 Is a means for determining whether or not “is a normal failure tendency” or “abnormal failure tendency”.

  When the input unit 21 adds the failure information to the database, the failure tendency determination unit 22 specifies the type of the added maintenance management target device 10 by accessing the target device database 27. For example, consider the case where the input unit 21 adds the third record from the top in FIG. In this case, since “PCA21” is stored as the identification information, the failure tendency determination unit 22 searches the target device database 27 to recognize that the identification information corresponds to the personal computer 10a.

  Next, the failure tendency determination unit 22 searches the failure information database 24 for failure information of the personal computer 10a using the identification information of the personal computer 10a as a search key. As a result of the search, the first and second records in FIG. 4 are extracted.

  Next, the failure tendency determination unit 22 acquires failure occurrence information from the extracted record. For example, the failure tendency determination unit 22 acquires the cumulative energization time of each record. Referring to FIG. 4, the failure tendency determination unit 22 acquires “800 hours” as the cumulative energization time of the personal computer 10a-11. Further, the failure tendency determination unit 22 acquires “900 hours” as the cumulative energization time of the personal computer 10a-13.

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 calculates the probability that the personal computer 10a will fail at the timing when the personal computer 10a-21 fails, from the acquired failure occurrence information. That is, since the personal computer 10a-21 has failed at the cumulative energization time “1000 hours”, the failure tendency determination unit 22 calculates the probability that the personal computer 10a will fail by the cumulative energization time “1000 hours”.

  In the above example, the personal computer 10a-21 fails at the accumulated energization time of “1000 hours”, the personal computer 10a-11 fails at the accumulated energization time of “800 hours”, and the personal computer 10a-13 is “900 hours”. Since the failure is caused by the accumulated energization time, the failure tendency determination unit 22 has a 3% probability that the personal computer 10a will fail by the accumulated energization time “1000 hours” (the number of failures; 3 / the number of operating devices; 100 × 100).

  Next, the failure tendency determination unit 22 accesses the failure rate characteristic database 28 and obtains the probability that the personal computer 10a will fail in the accumulated energization time “1000 hours”. The failure tendency determination unit 22 compares the failure rate calculated from the failure occurrence time information with the failure rate obtained from the failure rate characteristic database 28.

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 sets the failure tendency of the personal computer 10a to “normal failure tendency” when the failure rate calculated from the failure occurrence time information is lower than the failure rate obtained from the failure rate characteristic database 28. For example, if the failure rate calculated from the failure rate characteristic database 28 is 10%, the failure tendency of the personal computer 10a is “normal failure tendency”.

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 sets the failure tendency of the personal computer 10 a to “abnormal failure tendency” when the failure rate calculated from the failure occurrence time information is equal to or higher than the failure rate obtained from the failure rate characteristic database 28. For example, if the failure rate calculated from the failure rate characteristic database 28 is 1%, the failure tendency of the personal computer 10a is “abnormal failure tendency”.

  As described above, the failure tendency determination unit 22 relates to a failure occurrence rate (failure rate correlated with time information) according to the time of the maintenance management target device 10 when the failure rate is equal to or higher than a presumed failure rate. Determines that the failure tendency of the device is “abnormal failure tendency”.

  The output unit 23 outputs the determination result by the failure tendency determination unit 22 to a display device such as a liquid crystal panel, a patrol lamp, or the like. Alternatively, the output unit 23 may notify the determination result by the failure tendency determination unit 22 as an e-mail to a pre-registered e-mail address, or may output it to an external storage device such as a USB memory. .

<Operation of Failure Trend Determination Device 20>
FIG. 12 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the operation of the failure tendency determination apparatus 20.

  When a failure occurs in the maintenance management target device 10, failure information is input to the failure tendency determination device 20. Specifically, the failure diagnosis application installed in the maintenance management target device 10 or the like notifies the failure tendency determination device 20 of automatic sending information. Alternatively, an operator in charge of system recovery work (or a person who has been requested to input data by the operator) inputs failure recovery work information to the failure tendency determination apparatus 20.

  The input unit 21 inputs the failure information (step S101).

  The input unit 21 registers information included in the failure information in various databases (step S102).

  For example, the failure tendency determination unit 22 is activated when failure information is registered (step S103).

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 accesses the target device database 27 and the failure time information database 24, and acquires information necessary for determining the failure tendency (step S104).

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 calculates the failure rate of the maintenance target apparatus 10 in which the failure has occurred based on the information acquired from the failure information database 24 or the like (step S105).

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 acquires a threshold value (normally planned failure rate) necessary for determining the failure tendency from the failure rate characteristic database 28 (step S106).

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 compares the failure rate calculated in step S105 with the threshold acquired in step S106, and determines the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 (step S107).

  The output unit 23 outputs the determination result by the failure tendency determination unit 22 to a display device or the like (step S108).

  The output unit 23 indicates in which part of the maintenance management target device 10 a failure has occurred, regardless of whether the determination result by the failure tendency determination unit 22 is “normal failure tendency” or “abnormal failure tendency”. It may be acquired by accessing the failure site database 25 and output to the outside. Alternatively, the output unit 23 may acquire what kind of failure has occurred in the maintenance management target device 10 by accessing the failure content database 26 and output it to the outside.

  The failure tendency determination apparatus 20 may be configured to store the determination history calculated by the failure tendency determination unit 22 so that the determination history can be confirmed from the outside.

<Modification>
The description according to the first embodiment is an exemplification, and various modifications can be considered.

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 determines the failure tendency using the accumulated energization time. For example, the failure tendency determination unit 22 uses the “operation period” stored in the failure time information database 24 to indicate the failure tendency. You may judge. Alternatively, the failure tendency determination unit 22 calculates the number of working days of the maintenance management target device 10 from the “working date” registered in the target device database 27 and the “failure occurrence date” in the failure time information database, and the failure tendency. It may be used for the determination. In this case, the failure tendency determination unit 22 counts the number of days from the working day to the failure occurrence date, and calculates the number of working days.

  The failure tendency determination unit 22 includes a simple elapsed time, a time during which power is supplied to the apparatus, a cumulative energization time, a cumulative index value related to the operating time (for example, a central processor operating rate cumulative value or a hard disk access count cumulative value), etc. The failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 may be determined based on the above.

  Further, the failure tendency determination unit 22 may determine the failure tendency for each part constituting the device, instead of determining the failure tendency of the entire maintenance management target device 10. Specifically, the failure tendency determination unit 22 acquires information on a site (part, module, etc.) where a failure has occurred from the failure site database 25. For example, referring to FIG. 5, it is understood that the cause of the failure that occurred in the personal computer 10a-21 is the hard disk. Therefore, the failure tendency determination unit 22 determines a failure tendency in units of hard disks of the personal computer 10a.

  Specifically, by accessing the failure occurrence site database 25, the failure tendency determination unit 22 recognizes that the cause of the failure of the personal computer 10a-11 is also in the hard disk. Next, the failure tendency determination unit 22 accesses the failure information database 24 to acquire failure occurrence information when the personal computer 10a has failed due to a hard disk.

  In the example of FIG. 4, the personal computer 10 a-11 has failed at the cumulative energization time “800 hours” and the personal computer 10 a-21 has failed at the cumulative energization time “1000 hours”. The failure rate of the hard disk of the personal computer 10a during the energization time “1000 hours” is calculated as 2%. Next, the failure tendency determination unit 22 compares the calculated failure rate with the failure rate of the hard disk obtained from the failure rate characteristic database 28 (failure rate calculated from the failure rate characteristic) to determine a failure tendency related to the hard disk.

  Further, the failure tendency determination unit 22 may determine the failure tendency for each cause of the failure (for each content of the failure). In this case, the failure tendency determination unit 22 determines the failure tendency based on the information obtained from the failure content database 26 and the information obtained from the failure time information database 24 in the same manner as the failure tendency determination for each part. To do. Further, the failure tendency determination unit 22 may determine a failure tendency for each failure content of a part constituting the maintenance management target device 10. In this case, the failure tendency determination unit 22 determines a failure tendency based on information obtained from each of the failure time information database 24, the failure occurrence site database 25, and the failure content database 26.

  The failure rate of the maintenance management target device 10 is considered to correlate with information related to the time of the maintenance management target device 10 (operation period, cumulative energization time, etc.) due to the lifetime of parts and the like. Then, the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 is determined using the failure occurrence information. Furthermore, it is conceivable that the time zone in which the room temperature fluctuations due to the effect of air conditioning and the apparatus operating load during the day affect the failure of the maintenance management target apparatus 10 and its constituent parts.

  Further, regarding the failure rate of the parts constituting the apparatus, it is considered that there is a correlation between time and failure. For example, among the constituent parts (components) of the apparatus, the capacitor is deteriorated according to the time during which the voltage is applied, or the secondary battery capacity is decreased according to the number of times of charging / discharging. Therefore, the failure tendency determination unit 22 may determine the failure tendency of a part constituting the maintenance management target device 10 from the failure device identification information, the failure occurrence time information, and the failure occurrence part information.

  Further, the failure tendency determination unit 22 may determine the failure tendency for each cause that has occurred in the constituent parts of the maintenance management target device 10 from the failure device identification information, failure occurrence information, failure occurrence site information, and failure content information. Good.

  The input unit 21 of the first embodiment may input one of them without inputting the failure recovery work information and the automatic delivery information.

  Although the configuration in which various databases are included in the failure tendency determination apparatus has been described with reference to FIG. 3, all or a part of the databases illustrated in FIG. 3 may be constructed in an external database server.

  The processing performed by each unit such as the input unit 21, the failure tendency determination unit 22, and the output unit 23 of the failure tendency determination device 20 is performed by using the hardware installed in the computer installed in the failure tendency determination device 20. It is realizable with the computer program which executes. That is, it is sufficient if there is a means for executing the function performed by the failure tendency determination unit 22 or the like with some hardware and / or software.

  Further, by installing the above-described computer program in the storage unit of the computer, the computer can function as a failure tendency determination device. Furthermore, the failure tendency determination method can be executed by a computer by causing the computer program to be executed. The program can be downloaded through a network or updated using a storage medium storing the program.

  As described above, the failure tendency determination device 20 according to the first embodiment prepares failure rate characteristics for each maintenance management target device 10 and its constituent parts in advance, and stores failures that are accumulated while operating the system. The failure rate at the present time of the maintenance management target device 10 or the like is calculated from the details (failure information history). The failure tendency determination device 20 determines the failure tendency of the device by comparing the calculated failure rate with an assumed failure rate (a failure rate prepared in advance). Therefore, even when the failure tendency of the maintenance management target apparatus 10 is abnormal, the system administrator and the operator can quickly grasp the fact. As a result, the implementation of unnecessary measures and the oversight of devices that require measures are suppressed.

[Second Embodiment]
Next, a second embodiment will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  The failure tendency determination apparatus 20 according to the first embodiment determines the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 at the current time based on the failure history of the maintenance management target device 10 accumulated in various databases. The failure tendency determination device 20a according to the second embodiment determines a failure tendency of the maintenance management target device 10 in the future based on information estimated from the failure history of the maintenance management target device 10. In addition, since there is no difference in the basic structure of the failure tendency determination apparatus 20 and the failure tendency determination apparatus 20a, the description corresponding to FIG. 3 regarding the failure tendency determination apparatus 20a is omitted.

  The failure tendency determination device 20a according to the second embodiment inputs a time for performing failure trend prediction of the maintenance management target device 10 from an operator or the like. The failure tendency determination apparatus 20a determines, for example, the failure tendency after one year from the present time regarding the personal computer 10a based on the input time.

  Specifically, the failure tendency determination unit 22a according to the second embodiment calculates an expected failure rate characteristic from the history information accumulated in various databases, and is designated by the calculated failure rate characteristic. Estimate the failure rate at. The failure tendency determination unit 22a accesses the failure information database and acquires data related to the maintenance management target apparatus 10 for which the failure tendency is to be estimated. The failure tendency determination unit 22a estimates a failure rate characteristic of the maintenance management target device 10 by applying a least square method to the acquired data.

  For example, when the cumulative energization time-failure rate relationship for the server 10b is graphed, the black circle in FIG. 13 is obtained. The failure tendency determination unit 22a calculates an approximate straight line 201 indicating the failure rate characteristic of the server 10b from the failure history related to the server 10b. The failure tendency determination unit 22a compares the failure rate estimated from the approximate straight line 201 with the failure rate obtained from the failure rate characteristic database 28, so that the failure related to the server 10b in the future (cumulative energization time t3 in FIG. 13). Determine the trend.

  In some cases, the failure rate characteristic of the maintenance management target device 10 can be expressed by a quadratic or higher curve. In this case, the failure tendency determination unit 22a calculates the count of the quadratic curve so that the sum of the squares of the difference between the value of the quadratic curve for each predetermined time and the failure rate at the time point becomes the minimum. That is, the failure tendency determination unit 22a may calculate the failure rate characteristic of the maintenance management target device 10 using a second-order or higher curve. However, it may not be appropriate to express the failure rate characteristic of the maintenance management target device 10 using a cubic or higher-order curve because a change in the value of the estimated portion becomes large.

  As in the first embodiment, not only the maintenance management target device 10 itself, but also failure rate characteristics may be calculated for each component and failure content, and these failure rates may be extrapolated.

  As described above, the failure tendency determination apparatus 20a according to the second embodiment determines a future failure tendency using the failure rate characteristics calculated from the failure history related to the maintenance management target device 10. Therefore, the failure tendency determination device 20a can determine the failure tendency related to the maintenance management target device 10 with higher accuracy.

  A part or all of the above embodiments can be described as in the following supplementary notes, but is not limited thereto.

[Appendix 1]
An input unit for inputting failure information of the maintenance target device;
A determination unit that determines, based on a history of the failure information, whether a failure tendency that has occurred in the maintenance target device is a failure tendency within a presumed range or a failure tendency outside a presumed range;
A failure tendency determination device comprising:
[Appendix 2]
The determination unit
Based on the failure information history, calculate a first failure rate of the maintenance target device at a predetermined time,
From the failure rate characteristics of the same type of device as the maintenance management target device, obtain a second failure rate of the same type of device at the predetermined time,
The failure tendency determination device according to appendix 1, wherein the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device is determined by comparing the first and second failure rates.
[Appendix 3]
The failure information includes at least failure device identification information for identifying the maintenance management target device, and failure occurrence time information relating to a failure time that has occurred in the maintenance management target device,
The input unit registers the pair of the faulty device identification information and the fault occurrence information in the first database every time the fault information is input,
The failure tendency determination device according to appendix 2, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency of the maintenance target device based on the failure device identification information and the failure occurrence time information.
[Appendix 4]
The determination unit is registered in the first database and the failure occurrence time information satisfies a predetermined number of maintenance management target devices; a predetermined number of maintenance management target device operations; The failure tendency determination device according to appendix 3, wherein the first failure rate is calculated from:
[Appendix 5]
The failure information further includes failure occurrence site information relating to a site that constitutes the maintenance management target device and that caused the failure,
The input unit registers the pair of the faulty device identification information and the fault occurrence site information in a second database every time the fault information is input,
The failure tendency determination apparatus according to appendix 3 or 4, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency of a part constituting the maintenance management target apparatus based on the failure occurrence time information and the failure occurrence part information.
[Appendix 6]
The failure information further includes failure content information regarding the cause of the failure of the maintenance target device,
The input unit registers the pair of the faulty device identification information and the fault content information in a third database every time the fault information is input,
The failure tendency determination device according to appendix 5, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency of a cause that has occurred in the maintenance management target device based on the failure occurrence information and the failure content information.
[Appendix 7]
The determination unit according to appendix 6, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency related to a cause that has occurred in a component part of the maintenance target device based on the failure occurrence information, the failure occurrence part information, and the failure content information apparatus.
[Appendix 8]
The determination unit
Based on the history of the failure information, calculate the failure rate characteristics of the maintenance target device,
From the calculated failure rate characteristic of the maintenance management target device, a future third failure rate related to the maintenance management target device is estimated,
The failure tendency determination device according to any one of appendices 2 to 7, wherein a failure tendency of the maintenance target device is determined by comparing the third failure rate and the second failure rate.
[Appendix 9]
The failure according to any one of appendices 1 to 8, wherein the determination unit uses any one of a bathtub curve, an approximate straight line, and an approximate quadratic curve as a failure rate characteristic in the same type device of the maintenance management target device. Trend judgment device.
[Appendix 10]
The failure tendency determination apparatus according to any one of appendices 1 to 9, further comprising an output unit that outputs a failure tendency determination result by the determination unit to any of a display device, an external storage device, and a pre-registered mail address. .
[Appendix 11]
The input unit is
The failure according to any one of appendices 1 to 10, wherein information that is automatically generated by the maintenance management target device or a monitoring device of the maintenance management target device or information that an operator inputs is input as the failure information. Trend judgment device.
[Appendix 12]
A step of inputting failure information of the maintenance target device;
Determining whether a tendency of a failure that has occurred in the maintenance target device is a failure trend within a presumed range or a failure trend outside a presumed range based on the history of the failure information;
Disability trend judgment method including
[Appendix 13]
A process of inputting failure information of the maintenance target device;
A process of determining whether a tendency of a failure that has occurred in the maintenance target device is a failure tendency within a presumed range or a failure tendency outside a presumed range based on the history of the failure information;
For causing a computer that controls the failure tendency determination apparatus to execute
In addition, the form of Supplementary Note 12 and the form of Supplementary Note 13 can be developed into the form of Supplementary Note 2 to the form of Supplementary Note 11, similarly to the form of Supplementary Note 1.

  The disclosure of the cited patent document is incorporated herein by reference. Within the scope of the entire disclosure (including claims) of the present invention, the embodiments and examples can be changed and adjusted based on the basic technical concept. In addition, various combinations or selections of various disclosed elements (including each element in each claim, each element in each embodiment or example, each element in each drawing, etc.) within the scope of the entire disclosure of the present invention. Is possible. That is, the present invention of course includes various variations and modifications that could be made by those skilled in the art according to the entire disclosure including the claims and the technical idea. In particular, with respect to the numerical ranges described in this document, any numerical value or small range included in the range should be construed as being specifically described even if there is no specific description.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Maintenance management object apparatus 10a, 10a-1-10a-100 Personal computer 10b, 10b-1-10b-100 Server 10c, 10c-1-10c-100 Printer 20, 20a, 100 Failure tendency judgment apparatus 21, 101 Input part 22, 22a Failure tendency determination unit 23 Output unit 24 Failure information database (DB)
25 Failure occurrence site database (DB)
26 Obstacle Content Database (DB)
27 Target device database (DB)
28 Failure rate characteristic database (DB)
102 Determination unit 201 Approximate straight line

Claims (10)

An input unit for inputting failure information of the maintenance target device;
A determination unit that determines, based on a history of the failure information, whether a failure tendency that has occurred in the maintenance target device is a failure tendency within a presumed range or a failure tendency outside a presumed range;
A failure tendency determination device comprising: The determination unit
Based on the failure information history, calculate a first failure rate of the maintenance target device at a predetermined time,
From the failure rate characteristics of the same type of device as the maintenance management target device, obtain a second failure rate of the same type of device at the predetermined time,
The failure tendency determination device according to claim 1, wherein the failure tendency of the maintenance management target device is determined by comparing the first and second failure rates. The failure information includes at least failure device identification information for identifying the maintenance management target device, and failure occurrence time information relating to a failure time that has occurred in the maintenance management target device,
The input unit registers the pair of the faulty device identification information and the fault occurrence information in the first database every time the fault information is input,
The failure tendency determination device according to claim 2, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency of the maintenance target device based on the failure device identification information and the failure occurrence time information.   The determination unit is registered in the first database and the failure occurrence time information satisfies a predetermined number of maintenance management target devices; a predetermined number of maintenance management target device operations; The failure tendency determination device according to claim 3, wherein the first failure rate is calculated from The failure information further includes failure occurrence site information relating to a site that constitutes the maintenance management target device and that caused the failure,
The input unit registers the pair of the faulty device identification information and the fault occurrence site information in a second database every time the fault information is input,
The failure determination device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency of a part constituting the maintenance management target device based on the failure occurrence time information and the failure occurrence part information. The failure information further includes failure content information regarding the cause of the failure of the maintenance target device,
The input unit registers the pair of the faulty device identification information and the fault content information in a third database every time the fault information is input,
The failure tendency determination device according to claim 5, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency of a cause that has occurred in the maintenance management target device based on the failure occurrence information and the failure content information.   The failure tendency according to claim 6, wherein the determination unit determines a failure tendency related to a cause that has occurred in a component part of the maintenance management target device based on the failure occurrence information, the failure occurrence part information, and the failure content information. Judgment device. The determination unit
Based on the history of the failure information, calculate the failure rate characteristics of the maintenance target device,
From the calculated failure rate characteristic of the maintenance management target device, a future third failure rate related to the maintenance management target device is estimated,
The failure tendency determination device according to any one of claims 2 to 7, wherein a failure tendency of the maintenance target device is determined by comparing the third failure rate and the second failure rate. A step of inputting failure information of the maintenance target device;
Determining whether a tendency of a failure that has occurred in the maintenance target device is a failure trend within a presumed range or a failure trend outside a presumed range based on the history of the failure information;
Disability trend judgment method including A process of inputting failure information of the maintenance target device;
A process of determining whether a tendency of a failure that has occurred in the maintenance target device is a failure tendency within a presumed range or a failure tendency outside a presumed range based on the history of the failure information;
For causing a computer that controls the failure tendency determination apparatus to execute

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