JP2016030473A - Traffic analysis system, traffic analysis program and traffic analysis method - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a traffic analysis system, program and method capable of highly accurately estimating arrival time and starting time of trains.SOLUTION: A traffic analysis system for performing an analysis by collecting movement logs of passengers who utilize means of transportation and using the collected movement logs includes: a course estimation part which estimates a plurality of movement courses from a starting station to an arrival station in the movement logs; and a utilization route estimation part which judges that a movement log is such a movement log as to utilize a route going through a station prior to the arrival station and attaining to the arrival station, when the station prior to the arrival station is the same one in courses having a prescribed threshold or more, of the plurality of movement courses. An actual diagram at every route is estimated based on an alighting time of the movement log at every route produced by the utilization route estimation part.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 8

Description

  The present invention relates to a traffic analysis system, a traffic analysis program, and a traffic analysis method. More specifically, the present invention relates to a traffic analysis system, a traffic analysis program, and a traffic analysis method for estimating arrival time and departure time of a train or the like from a user movement log.

  Various efforts are being made by transport operators to improve the convenience of public transportation and improve the efficiency of operation. For example, by using the history of a traffic IC ticket that has become common in recent years, it is possible to estimate the congestion rate and predict the flow by estimating the travel route of the passenger. Timetable (diagram) information is required to accurately estimate the passenger's travel route. Transport operators have a preset schedule, but it is actually difficult for trains and buses to operate as planned, and many small delays occur due to accidents and traffic jams. It often falls into a situation where it is necessary to carry out unplanned operation. Therefore, it is considered that more accurate analysis will be possible by using the actual schedule that summarizes the actual arrival time and arrival and departure times instead of using the planned operation schedule when estimating the travel route of passengers. It is done. However, in order to collect performance diamonds mechanically, special devices must be installed in vehicles, railway tracks, roads, etc., and there is a problem that requires a large amount of cost and time.

  Patent Document 1 discloses an operation management system with a train delay prediction display function that includes a performance diagram creation means.

  Further, Patent Document 2 discloses a system that estimates the actual schedule based on the number of people getting off from a travel log of a passenger estimated to be a single-line mobile person who has not changed trains.

JP 2000-1168 A PCT / JP2012 / 077650

  The technology described in Patent Document 1 is based on the premise that train location information, station congestion information, garage information, weather information, and other information related to current train operation can be received for the creation of an actual schedule. There is no description about the technology to create a performance diagram.

  The technique described in Patent Document 2 is characterized in that the actual schedule is estimated based on the distribution of the number of people getting off, but in order to remove the movement log of passengers who got off using other routes, a simple transfer is not performed. Only the travel logs of passengers estimated to be route movers are used. For this reason, there is a problem that the travel log used for estimation is smaller than the log of passengers who actually get off using the route.

  In addition, since the peak of the number of people getting off generated by the above means has a deficit or a false peak when compared with the actual arrival time of the train, it is not easy to estimate the actual schedule from the distribution of the number of people getting off.

  This invention is made | formed in view of this point, The objective is to estimate arrival time and departure time, such as a train, with higher precision from a user movement log. .

  A representative example of the means for solving the problems according to the present invention is a traffic analysis system for estimating a track record of a predetermined route using a travel log of a passenger using a transportation facility, A route estimation unit that estimates a plurality of travel routes from a departure station to an arrival station of the travel log, and a route that passes through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is a predetermined threshold or more among the plurality of travel routes Further, the travel log is estimated to be a log that reaches the arrival station using the route, and the travel log estimated when the travel route estimation unit estimated that the route was used. And a performance diagram estimation unit for estimating the performance diagram.

  Or a traffic analysis program for estimating a track record of a predetermined route by using a travel log of a passenger who uses a transportation facility, and estimating a plurality of travel routes from a departure station to an arrival station of the travel log; When the route that passes through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold among the plurality of travel routes, the travel log is a log that reaches the arrival station using the route. A step of estimating and a step of estimating the actual schedule based on the getting-off time of the travel log estimated by the use route estimation unit to use the route are executed by a computer.

  Or a traffic analysis method for estimating a track record of a predetermined route using a travel log of a passenger who uses a transportation facility, the step of estimating a plurality of travel routes from a departure station to an arrival station of the travel log; When the route that passes through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold among the plurality of travel routes, the travel log is a log that reaches the arrival station using the route. A step of estimating, and a step of estimating the actual schedule based on the time when the travel log is estimated to have been used by the use route estimation unit.

  According to one embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to estimate arrival time and departure time of a train or the like with higher accuracy from a user movement log.

It is a system configuration figure of a traffic analysis system of an embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure explaining the structure of the traffic type | system | group IC card data of embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the structure of the master data which stores basic information, such as a station and a route of embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the structure of the movement log data of embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the data structure of the plan diagram of embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the movement log production | generation process procedure of embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the utilization route estimation process procedure of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of the utilization route estimation of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the utilization route estimation result of embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the performance diagram estimation processing procedure of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the utilization route estimation result of embodiment of this invention, a plan diagram, and a performance diagram estimation result presentation. It is a flowchart which shows another example of the performance diagram estimation process sequence of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the representative alighting time estimation process of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the time calculation process between the average stations of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows another example of the performance diagram estimation process of embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the boarding train estimation process of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the seating priority path | route of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the detail of the boarding train estimation process of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows an example of the boarding train estimation result of embodiment of this invention.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram of a traffic analysis system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

  In recent years, many users (101) who use transportation are installed in ticket gates for use in transportation or in vehicles using non-contact IC cards or portable terminals (103) having equivalent functions. Passed through the read terminal (102). The data acquired by those ticket gates and in-vehicle terminals is transmitted via the network (104) to the server group (105) managed by each transportation company.

  The traffic analysis system (107) is composed of a data server (111), a calculation server (112), and an information distribution server (113). The traffic analysis system (107) stores usage data of a non-contact IC card or a portable terminal (103) having an equivalent function. Accumulated movement data is accumulated and analyzed. It should be noted that description of functions and configurations of non-contact IC cards, ticket gates, and the like, and information processing technology that are not directly related to the present invention will be omitted.

  When the user (101) carrying the non-contact type IC card (103) passes the ticket gate (102), the location information including the user ID for identifying the IC card (103) and the passage date and time is displayed. ) And is stored as original data in the server (105) managed by the transportation company. These data are transmitted to the data server (111) via the network (104) at the same time as accumulation or at a necessary timing such as every other hour or every other day. A traffic analysis system (107) including a server group of a data server (111), a calculation server (112), and an information distribution server (113) is connected to a network (114), and is connected to a user, a traffic operator (115, 117). Can communicate. Therefore, for example, the traffic operator (115) can link the traffic analysis system (107) with other systems such as an operation management system and an IC card data management system. In the present embodiment, the server group of the data server (111), the calculation server (112), and the information distribution server (113) will be described. However, one or a plurality of servers can be configured to execute the functions of these server groups. It is also possible to do.

  The data server (111) receives user data read by an IC card reader terminal such as a ticket gate via the network (104), and records it in a data storage unit (121) in the server. The collected and stored data includes traffic IC card data (122) and basic master data (123) related to stations, bus stops and routes. In addition, travel log data (124) obtained by primary processing of traffic IC card data (122), schedule diagram (125), performance diagram (126) generated by traffic analysis system (107), and passenger route estimation The route preference pattern data (127) and the like used for the are stored. The basic master data (123) related to the station or route is appropriately updated and recorded from the outside of the system when it is changed or updated.

  In the calculation server (112), processing for generating movement data from data stored in the data server (111), processing for estimating the travel route of passengers, processing for estimating the actual schedule, and the like are performed. The calculation server (112) mainly includes a network interface (I / F (A)) (130), a CPU (131), a memory (132), and a storage unit (133). The network interface is an interface for connecting to a network. The storage unit (133) includes a program group such as a travel log generation program (134), a route estimation program (135), a use route estimation program (136), a performance diagram estimation program (137), and a boarding train estimation program (138). A data storage unit (139) for storing the statistical values and index values obtained as a result of the calculation processing is included. The storage unit is, for example, a hard disk drive, a CD-ROM drive, or a flash memory. Various programs and various data may be divided and recorded on a plurality of recording devices.

  When each program group is executed, data to be analyzed is read from the data server (111), temporarily stored in the memory (132), and each program (134, 135, 136, 137) is stored in the CPU (131). 138) are read into the memory and executed to implement various functions. The execution timing of these programs may be performed every time new data is added to the request timing of the operator (119), the user, or the traffic operator (115, 117) or to the data server (111), for example. Alternatively, as a batch process, the process may be automatically performed at a predetermined time every day.

  The information distribution server (113) includes a network interface (I / F (B)) (145), a CPU (146), a memory (147), and a recording device (148). The network interface is an interface for connecting to a network. The recording device records various programs and various data, such as a hard disk drive, a CD-ROM drive, and a flash memory. Various programs and various data may be divided and recorded on a plurality of recording devices.

  The information distribution server (113) is used by a traffic operator or a user (115, 117) via a mobile information terminal (116) or a stationary information terminal (118) via a network (114) to generate a schedule or It is for referring to the analysis results such as the human flow analysis and delay situation using the actual record. The recording device (148) includes a display screen generation program (141) and an information distribution program (142). The CPU (146) executes various functions by reading various programs recorded in the recording device (148) into a memory and executing them.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the structure of traffic system IC card data (122) which is representative data stored in the data server (111). First, the traffic IC card data (122) has a log ID (201), a target user ID (202), an ID (203) of a station and a bus stop linked from information on which data reading terminal has passed, It includes information such as the usage time (204) that has passed through the reading terminal and the usage type (205) such as entry or exit. Here, the usage type is information indicating the type of processing such as “entrance” or “participation” for a ticket gate or an entrance gate, and “purchase” for a product sales terminal, for example. The traffic system IC card data (122) may be transmitted every time new data is generated, or may be transmitted all at once in the middle of the night when usage is reduced. On the data server (111) side, storage processing may be performed in accordance with the transmission timing.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the types of master data (123) stored in the data server (111) and their data structures. First, the position master (300), which is basic data relating to places where transportation means such as stations, bus stops, and roads can be used, is a station / bus stop ID (301), a station / bus stop name (302), an owned company (303), an address, etc. Information (304), latitude and longitude information (305), and the like. When there is a change in the configuration of a station, bus stop, route, or road, data is added or corrected as needed. The route master (310), which is basic data relating to the route, is a route type (314) for distinguishing between a route ID (311) for identifying a route, a route name (312), an operating company (313), a railway route or a bus route. ) And other information. A station / bus stop-route relation master (320), which is basic data for associating a station and a route, is a route ID (321) for identifying the route, a station / bus stop ID (322) included in the route, and a station / bus stop. Information such as a sequence number (323) for managing the order, a type (324) for identifying whether to stop or pass, and a required time (325) from the start point. For example, when there is a change in a station, a bus stop, a route, or a road, the master data (123) is input, updated, and recorded from the outside of the system shown in FIG. 1 each time the change is made.

  FIG. 4 is a view showing a data structure for storing the movement log data (124) stored in the data server (111). The travel log data (124) includes a log ID (401) for identifying a log, a target user ID (402), a boarding date and time (403) indicating the start of use of the transportation means at the departure point, and a transportation means at the arrival point. Alighting date and time (404) indicating the time when the use of the bus is terminated, a payment amount (405) indicating a charge required for moving, a boarding station / bus stop ID1 (406), a getting off station / bus stop ID1 (407), a boarding station / bus stop ID2 (408), information such as an alighting station / bus stop ID2 (409) is included. The movement log data (124) is data after primary processing generated using the traffic system IC card data (122) and the like.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a data structure for storing the plan diagram (125) stored in the data server (111). The plan diagram data (125) includes information of a diagram ID (501) for identifying a diagram, its route ID (502), a stop station or bus stop (503), an arrival time (504), and a departure time (505). It is out.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining the processing procedure of the movement log generation program (134) that generates the movement log data (124) from the traffic IC card data (122) and stores it in the data server (111). Here, a description will be given on the assumption that the storage processing in the data server (111) is performed by batch processing once every predetermined time every day. First, all data are rearranged in order of user ID and time with reference to the user ID (202) and use time (204) included in the newly collected traffic IC card data (122) (processing step 601). Next, the following same process is repeated for the number of user IDs for the data rearranged in process step 601 (process step 602). First, a list type variable corresponding to the boarding station / bus stop ID, boarding date / time, getting-off station / bus stop ID, and getting off date / time is initialized (processing step 603). Next, the following same processing is repeated for the data arranged in time order (processing step 604). First, cases are classified according to the value of the usage type (205) (processing step 605), and each processing is performed. If the value of the usage type (205) is admission, first, it is confirmed whether there is a previous participation log in the log of the same user and the same day (processing step 606), and the participation log exists. In this case, it is determined whether or not the difference between the getting-off date and time and the boarding date and time of the current log is within a predefined threshold (processing step 607). This threshold value is a value for determining connection of a plurality of transportation facilities, and is preferably provided within a range of several minutes to several tens of minutes, for example. If the difference between the date and time when the previous entry log and the current log are within the threshold, the value is added to the boarding station / bus stop ID and boarding date list. (Processing Step 608). When the threshold value is exceeded, it is considered that there is sufficient time from the previous movement, so it can be determined that the previous movement information should be divided here. Therefore, the value of the variable is stored in the movement log data (124) (processing step 609), and the variable is initialized again (processing step 610). If there is no corresponding previous entry log, a value is added to the boarding station / bus stop ID and boarding date / time list (processing step 611). If the value of the usage type (205) is participation, values are added to the variables of the getting-off station / bus stop ID and the getting-off date / time (processing step 612). If the value is set in the variable when the repetitive processing for one user ID is completed, the value of the variable is stored in the movement log data (processing step 613). Here, the log ID (201) is held as a serial number. Here, the threshold value t for determining whether or not it is a series of movements is set in advance as a standard transfer time. With this threshold value t, the allowable range of transfer times can be adjusted. The threshold value t related to the standard transfer time is a positive value, and may be a value common to all the traffic networks, or may be different for each area.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining the processing procedure of the use route estimation program (136) for estimating the use route of each travel log using the travel log data (124). The processing is repeated for the number of movement logs (processing step 701). First, a route from the boarding station to the getting-off station is searched based on a plurality of search criteria (processing steps 702 and 703). In the present embodiment, description will be made assuming that there are three types of route selection criteria: time priority criteria, transfer frequency priority criteria, and charge priority criteria. The route selection criteria that can be used are not limited to these three. Next, it is determined whether or not a route having the same movement direction exists for all the searched routes in a predetermined threshold or more (processing step 704).

  Here, details of the processing step 704 will be described in detail with reference to FIG. FIG. 8 shows a result of searching for a movement route from the boarding station (801) to the getting-off station (802) based on the time priority standard, the transfer frequency priority standard, and the charge priority standard. The time priority route (803) moves to the station C (808) on the route 1 (809), changes to the route 2 (811), and reaches the exit station (802). The transfer priority route (804) and the charge priority route (805) are the same, and the route 3 (810) is used to reach the disembarking station (802). Consider that the actual schedule is estimated for the route 3 when there is such a route.

  In this case, with the technique described in Patent Document 2, the movement log from the boarding station to the getting-off station in FIG. 8 could not be used for estimation of the actual schedule of the route 3. This is because the route from the boarding station includes routes that pass through the stations C and B using the routes 1 and 2, and thus cannot be uniquely identified as a log using the route 3.

  On the other hand, in the traffic analysis system according to the present embodiment, in processing step 704, in order to determine whether or not the travel direction of the searched route is the same, in order to determine whether the route is the same as the previous station (in the estimation of route 3) Confirms station A). By confirming which station is likely to be the station in front of the getting-off station, it is estimated which line is used to arrive at the getting-off station. As a specific method, a predetermined route is set in advance, and an appropriate route (a route having some reasonable advantage compared to other routes such as the number of transfers, a fee, or time) is station A. This is performed by determining whether or not the probability of passing through exceeds the threshold value. In the example of FIG. 8, two of the three routes (transfer frequency priority route (804) and toll priority route (805)) are station A (806) in front of the alighting station, and route 3 (810) is used. Arriving at the getting-off station (802), one of the three routes (time priority route (803)) is station B at the station in front of the getting-off station and using route 2 (811) to the getting-off station (802) Has arrived. At this time, for example, if the predetermined threshold is 0.5, two of the three routes (0.67) exceed the threshold, and thus there is a high probability that the route has traveled at least via station A. In other words, the probability of using route 3 (810) is high. Therefore, the log is estimated to be a log of a user who arrives at the getting-off station (802) using the route 3 (810). At this time, the getting-off time of the log is recorded as an arrival time candidate of the getting-off station on the route (processing step 705).

  As described above, the traffic analysis system according to the present embodiment is a traffic analysis system that estimates the actual schedule of a predetermined route using a travel log of passengers who use a transportation facility. A route estimation unit (135) that estimates a plurality of travel routes to the route, and when a route that passes through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold among the plurality of travel routes, Use route estimation unit (136) that estimates that the route reaches the arrival station using the route, and results that estimate the actual time schedule based on the travel log getting off time estimated by the use route estimation unit to use the route And a diamond estimation unit (137).

  Or a traffic analysis method (including a program for executing the traffic analysis method and a storage medium for storing the program) for estimating the actual schedule of a predetermined route using a travel log of passengers using the transportation facility. A step (702) of estimating a plurality of travel routes from the departure station to the arrival station of the travel log, and of the plurality of travel routes, a route passing through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold value In this case, based on the step (704) of estimating that the travel log is a log that reaches the arrival station using the route, and the time when the travel log estimated that the use route estimation unit used the route, And a step (1001-1005) of estimating a record schedule.

  Such a feature makes it possible to increase the number of logs used for estimation as compared with the estimation using a log that only has a route using the route as in Patent Document 2, and as a result, the accuracy of estimation is further improved. It becomes possible.

  Here, when the getting-off time of the travel log actually records the ticket gate appearance time, an error occurs from the train arrival time. Therefore, in processing step 705, the moving log getting off time may be corrected based on predetermined information. As the predetermined information, for example, the average travel time from the arrival platform to the ticket gate at the getting-off station can be used.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of a result of the use route estimation process of the use route estimation program (136). For each station on each route, the number of travel logs estimated to have been alighted at that station using that route at each time is recorded. In general, passengers are expected to enter from the ticket gates without staying after getting off the train, so it is considered that a large number of travel logs are concentrated near the train arrival time.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining an example of the processing procedure of the record diagram estimation program (137). The actual schedule estimation procedure is processed for each route (processing step 1001). First, a minute correction is added to the schedule diagram of the route (processing step 1002). As a method of adding the correction, a method of shifting the arrival / departure time back and forth by several seconds to several minutes for the entire diagram, for each train, or for each station can be considered. Next, the degree of coincidence between the corrected schedule and the time of getting off the travel log using the route estimated by the use route estimation program (136) is calculated (processing step 1003). As the degree of coincidence, the number of travel logs in which the train arrival time and the getting-off time of the modified plan schedule coincide can be used. Since the time of getting off of the travel log includes an error, it may be determined that the difference between the train arrival time and the getting-off time of the planned schedule corrected by providing a predetermined threshold is within the threshold if there is an error. If the degree of coincidence is the largest among the degree of coincidence calculated so far, the correction plan diagram is recorded as an actual diagram (processing step 1005). Finally, the correction plan diagram that maximizes the degree of coincidence is recorded in the data server (111) as a performance diagram (126). In general, since the plan diagram and the actual diagram are not significantly different from each other, it is possible to estimate the actual diagram with higher accuracy by this method.

  FIG. 11 shows an example of an estimation result presentation screen of the use route estimation program (136) and the actual schedule estimation program (137) by the display screen generation program (141). The operator (119) can select a route by a pull-down menu (1102) in the screen (1101). The use route estimation result (1104), the plan diagram (1105), and the actual diagram estimation result (1106) of the selected route are displayed in the display screen (1103). When there is an error in the result diagram estimation result, the operator (119) can correct the result diagram (1106) using the cursor (1107). When the actual schedule is corrected, there is information that can be easily grasped by the operator, such as whether it should be corrected forward in the time axis or vice versa, and the accuracy of the correction is improved. A GUI that can intuitively modify the performance diagram is useful.

  FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining another example of the processing procedure of the record diagram estimation program (137). The actual schedule estimation procedure is processed for each route (processing step 1201). Next, processing for each station is performed on the route (processing step 1202). The representative getting-off time is determined from the getting-off time of the use log for each station (processing step 1203). The representative disembarkation time refers to the disembarkation time that represents the subset when the travel log is divided so that those close to each other are included in the same subset.

  Here, a method of determining the representative getting-off time will be described in detail with reference to FIG. A clustering method is suitable as a method for determining the representative getting-off time. When the number of daily operations on the route is known, a clustering method such as a K-means method or a mixed Gaussian model is used. When the number of operations is unknown, a clustering method such as a Dirichlet process mixture model is used. be able to. Since these known clustering methods can use known techniques, detailed description thereof is omitted. By applying the clustering method, the getting-off time of the usage log on the route can be divided into a plurality of clusters (from the top to the middle in FIG. 13). Next, by determining the representative value of the divided cluster, the representative getting-off time can be obtained (lower row in FIG. 13). As the representative value determination method, an average value, a median value, a mode value, etc. of the drop-off times in the cluster are suitable. Thus, by obtaining the representative getting-off time from the getting-off time of the use log of the route, it is possible to remove an error in the use route estimation result included in the use log.

  Next, the record schedule estimation program (137) performs processing for each station (processing step 1204). A correlation between the representative departure time of a station and the next station is obtained, a time difference τ at which the correlation is maximum is obtained, and the time difference τ is set as an average required time between the station and the next station (processing step 1205). The correlation when the time difference is τ is calculated by Equation 1.

Here, X (t) is an array in which the representative getting-off times of the stations are stored, and X (t) is 1 when the time t is the representative getting-off time. Y (t) is an array in which the representative drop-off time of the station next to the station is stored. If the average required time of the station and the next station is τ, and the time t is the representative drop-off time of the station, it is expected that the time t + τ is the representative drop-off time of the next station. Therefore, the correlation is maximized when τ is the average required time between the station and the next station. An example of the correlation calculation result is shown in FIG.

  Next, the performance diagram estimation program (137) creates a performance diagram by searching for a representative getting-off time whose time difference is close to the average required time between stations calculated in the processing step 1205 (processing step 1206). Since there is a possibility that the representative getting-off time includes a defect, it is possible to correct the actual schedule by interpolating the defect (processing step 1207). A processing conceptual diagram of processing step 1206 and processing step 1207 is shown in FIG. Create a timetable by connecting the next station's representative departure time (1502) such that the time difference (1503) from the representative departure time (1501) of a station is the average required time between stations calculated in processing step 1205. To do. Interpolation is performed for the missing portion of the representative getting-off time (1504).

  As described above, the actual schedule estimation program (137) estimates the actual schedule using the planned schedule when the planned schedule is available, and the representative getting-off time and the average required time between stations even when the planned schedule is not available. It is possible to estimate the actual schedule by calculating.

  FIG. 16 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing procedure (138) of the boarding train estimation program. The processing is repeated for the number of movement logs (processing step 1601). First, a route search is performed for each route preference pattern recorded in the route preference pattern data (127) stored in the data server (111) (processing steps 1602, 1603). The route preference pattern data (127) stores passenger route selection criteria that are taken into consideration when searching for a route. The route selection criteria are “time priority criteria” that selects the route that arrives at the station that gets off the earliest, “transfer priority criteria” that selects the route with the least number of transfers, “price priority criteria” that selects the route with the cheapest charge, In addition to the “congestion avoidance criteria” for selecting the route with the most vacant trains, in order to be seated in a congested train, go from the boarding station in the opposite direction to the disembarking station, and secure a return seat to the first station on the route “Sitting priority standards” that prioritize doing things can be considered. For route search based on time priority criteria, transfer priority criteria, toll priority criteria, and congestion avoidance criteria, the railway network is represented in a graph structure by using stations as nodes and tracks connecting stations as edges, and weights between stations It can be realized by solving the shortest path problem with an algorithm such as the Dijkstra method by setting the required time, the number of transfers, the charge, and the degree of congestion, respectively. Since a known technique can be used for solving the shortest path problem, detailed description thereof is omitted.

  Here, the route search based on the seating priority criterion will be described in detail with reference to FIG. When the route (1703) from the boarding station (1701) to the getting-off station (1702) is congested, the route (1705) going to the starting station (1704) in the reverse direction and going back to the getting-off station (1702) is selected. Therefore, priority is given to seating at the first departure station (1704) rather than an increase in travel time. Such a seating priority route (1705) can be searched by adding a round trip route between the boarding station (1701) and the first departure station (1704) in the searched general route (1703). The seating priority route (1705) is selected when the number of stations between the boarding station (1701) and the first departure station (1704) is small, or when the number of stations from the boarding station (1701) to the departure station (1704) is large. Therefore, if the number of stations between the boarding station (1701) and the first station (1704) is not more than a predetermined threshold, or the number of stations from the boarding station (1701) to the getting-off station (1704) is predetermined. You may make it search only when it is more than this threshold value. Depending on the transportation company, such a return ride may be prohibited. In this case, the present invention does not recommend the prohibited act to the user, but the purpose of the transportation operator to grasp the actual situation of such a return ride by adding a seating priority criterion to the route search candidate. To do.

  Next, the boarding train estimation program (138) performs boarding train estimation for each searched route (processing steps 1604 and 1605). Details of the boarding train estimation will be described with reference to FIG. First, the train with the closest departure time (1802) after the boarding time (1801) is specified using the boarding time (1801) of the travel log and the actual time diagram (126) estimated by the actual time schedule estimation program (137). When the boarding time (1801) of the travel log is actually the ticket gate entrance time, a value obtained by adding a predetermined estimated travel time can be used. Actually, there is a variation in the travel time from the passenger's ticket gate to the boarding area, so it is not always possible to board the train at the departure time (1802) closest to the boarding time (1801). Therefore, the train at the next departure time (1803) is also added to the boarding train candidate. Similarly, at the transfer station (1804), trains having a plurality of departure times are added to the train candidates. The number of trains added to the boarding train candidate can be given by a threshold value or the like. Next, when the travel log drop-off time (1805) is an entry time, an entry time (1807) obtained by adding a predetermined estimated travel time to the arrival time (1806) of the boarding train candidate and an entry time (1805) ) And the closest one is a boarding train. Finally, the closest travel log entry time (1805) to the boarding train estimation candidate entry time (1807) is output as the boarding train. In the present embodiment, the closest travel log entry time (1805) and the boarding train estimation candidate participation time (1807) are output as the boarding train. However, the boarding train estimation method is not limited to this. The boarding train may be determined based on a predetermined priority order from among a plurality of boarding train estimation candidates in which the difference between the starting time (1805) and the boarding train estimation candidate participation time (1807) is within a predetermined threshold. In the present embodiment, the route search (processing step 1603) and the boarding train estimation (processing step 1605) using the performance diagram (126) are performed separately, but the performance diagram (126) is used during the route search (processing step 1603). It is also possible to perform a search considering the above.

  FIG. 19 shows an example of an estimation result presentation screen of the boarding train estimation program (138) by the display screen generation program (141). When the operator (119) selects an arbitrary station (1902) on the route map in the screen (1901), the route selection ratio of passengers at the station is displayed in the screen (1903) as a stacked area graph (1904). The The horizontal axis of the stacked area graph (1904) represents the time, and the vertical axis represents the breakdown of the route selection criteria estimated from the travel log of the station passenger at that time in terms of the number of people. A GUI as shown in FIG. 19 is useful because the ratio of route selection criteria at a desired station and the state of the change can be easily grasped. The method of presenting the ratio of the route selection criterion is not limited to the stacked area graph, and a pie chart or the like may be used. Further, not only the route selection ratio of passengers but also the route selection ratio of passengers getting off may be presented, and the operator (119) may select not only the station but also the route.

  101: User, 102: Reading terminal, 103: Mobile terminal, 104: Network, 105: Server group, 107: Traffic analysis system, 111: Data server, 112: Calculation server, 113: Information distribution server, 114: Network, 115: 117: Transportation company, 121: Data storage unit, 122: Transportation IC card data, 123: Master data, 124: Movement log data, 125: Planning diagram, 126: Performance diagram, Route preference pattern data, 130: I / F, 131: CPU, 132: memory, 133: storage unit, 134: travel log generation program, 135: route estimation program, 136: use route estimation program, 137: actual schedule estimation program, 138: boarding train estimation program 139: Data storage unit, 141: Display screen generation process 142: information distribution program, 145: I / F, 146: CPU, 147: memory, 201: log ID, 202: user ID, 203: station / bus stop ID, 204: use time, 205: use type, 300 : Station / bus stop master, 301: Station / bus stop ID, 302: Station / bus stop name, 303: Owner company, 304: Location, 305: Latitude / longitude, 310: Route master, 311: Route ID, 312: Route name, 313 : Operating company, 314: Route type, 320: Station / bus stop / route related master, 321: Route ID, 322: Station / bus stop ID, 323: Order, 324: Type, 325: Time required from start point, 401: Log ID: 402: user ID, 403: boarding date / time, 404: getting off date / time, 405: payment amount, 406: boarding station / bus stop ID1, 407: getting off -Bus stop ID1, 408: Boarding station-Bus stop ID2, 409: Alighting station-Bus stop ID2, 501: Schedule ID, 502: Route ID, 503: Stop station, 504: Arrival time, 505: Departure time, 601-1005: Step 1101: Screen 1102: Pull-down menu 1103: Display screen 1104: Route usage estimation result 1105: Planned diagram 1106: Result diagram estimation result 1107: Cursor 1201-1207: Step, 1501: Typical departure time 1502: representative getting-off time of next station, 1503: time difference, 1504: interpolation, 1601-1605: step, 1701: boarding station, 1702: getting-off station, 1703: route, 1704: first station, 1705: seating priority route, 1801 : Boarding time, 1802: departure time, 1803: next departure time, 1804: boarding station, 1805: participation time, 1806: arrival time, 1807: participation time, 1901: screen, 1902: station, 1903: screen, 1904: graph.

Claims (10)

A traffic analysis system that estimates the actual schedule of a given route using a travel log of passengers who use transportation,
A route estimation unit that estimates a plurality of travel routes from a departure station to an arrival station of the travel log;
When the route passing through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold among the plurality of travel routes, the travel log is estimated to be a log that reaches the arrival station using the route. A route estimation unit to
A traffic analysis system, comprising: a track record schedule estimation unit configured to estimate the track record schedule based on the getting-off time of the travel log estimated by the use route estimation unit to use the route. The traffic analysis system according to claim 1,
The traffic analysis system, wherein the plan diagram is corrected so that the degree of coincidence between the getting-off time of the travel log for each route and the plan diagram is maximized, and the corrected plan diagram is used as the actual diagram. The traffic analysis system according to claim 1,
The movement log for each route is divided so that those that are close to each other are included in the same subset, and a calculation for obtaining a representative departure time that represents the subset is performed. A traffic analysis system that uses train arrival time estimation results. The traffic analysis system according to claim 1,
A traffic analysis system characterized in that a calculation for obtaining a correlation between adjacent stations in the movement log for each route is performed, and a time difference at which the correlation is maximized is defined as an average required time between the adjacent stations. The traffic analysis system according to claim 1,
The traffic analysis system further comprising: a display unit that displays the time of getting off the travel log for each route and the planned diagram or the actual diagram on the same screen. The traffic analysis system according to claim 5,
The traffic analysis system further comprising a correction unit for correcting the actual schedule on the screen. The traffic analysis system according to claim 1,
For each of the travel logs,
When searching for a plurality of routes from the departure station to the arrival station based on a criterion including at least one of a time priority criterion, a transfer priority criterion, a charge priority criterion, a congestion avoidance criterion, or a seating priority criterion, A traffic analysis system further comprising a boarding train estimation unit that estimates a train on which the passenger corresponding to the travel log has boarded by using a diagram. The traffic analysis system according to claim 7,
The traffic analysis system further comprising a display unit for displaying a ratio of the route selection criterion estimated as a result of the boarding train estimation. It is a program that estimates the actual schedule of a given route using the travel log of passengers using transportation,
Estimating a plurality of travel routes from a departure station to an arrival station of the travel log;
When the route passing through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold among the plurality of travel routes, the travel log is estimated to be a log that reaches the arrival station using the route. And steps to
A program that causes a computer to execute the step of estimating the actual schedule based on the getting-off time of the travel log estimated that the use route estimation unit has used the route. A traffic analysis method for estimating a performance schedule of a predetermined route using a travel log of a passenger using a transportation facility,
Estimating a plurality of travel routes from a departure station to an arrival station of the travel log;
When the route passing through the station in front of the arrival station on the route is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold among the plurality of travel routes, the travel log is estimated to be a log that reaches the arrival station using the route. And steps to
And a step of estimating the actual schedule based on the getting-off time of the travel log estimated that the use route estimation unit has used the route.

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