JP2013088206A - Diffusion situation prediction system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a diffusion situation prediction system for diffusate in which the diffusion situation of diffusate from a diffusion source can be predicted more accurately while regarding a practical aspect important.SOLUTION: A diffusion situation prediction system 10A for diffusate comprises a weather data/diffusate input unit 11, an airflow site data calculation unit 12 and a diffusion site data calculation unit 13. The weather data/diffusate input unit 11 inputs thereto weather data including the wind direction, wind velocity and stability on the target date/time in which radioactive substances are diffused from a diffusion source and the quantity of radioactive substances discharged at that time in a computation area including a target spot where the diffusion source is present. The airflow site data calculation unit 12 calculates airflow site data at intervals of a predetermined time for a predetermined period of time. The diffusion site data calculation unit 13 temporally continuously calculates diffusion site data of radioactive substances by using the obtained airflow site data. On the assumption that the time of disaster occurrence in which radioactive substances are discharged from the diffusion source is deviated at every predetermined time during a predetermined period of time, the airflow site data calculation unit 12 and the diffusion site data calculation unit 13 calculate the diffusion site data at the disaster occurrence time in each deviation.

Description

  The present invention relates to a diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials.

  Conventionally, when hazardous substances are released due to accidents at nuclear power plants or chemical factories, for example, the diffusion range and concentration of the hazardous substances are predicted, and the diffusion situation prediction for predicting the area affected by the harmful substances The system is known.

  This diffusion situation prediction system calculates partial differential equations for analyzing atmospheric phenomena based on meteorological observation data such as meteorological GPV (Grid Point Value) data and AMeDAS (Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System). Over the calculation period from the time of the accident occurrence (for example, the release of radioactive material) to the time ahead of the specified time, the gas conditions (wind direction, wind speed, etc.) at many evaluation points are calculated at regular time intervals to calculate the airflow field data. By calculating diffusion using the obtained airflow field data, the concentration of diffusion material (diffusion field data) is obtained, and the diffusion state of harmful substances released from the accident source is predicted.

  Since the calculation of airflow field data and diffusion field data requires a huge amount of time, for example, an airflow field database and a diffusion field database are prepared in advance, and the diffusion state of diffused substances released into the atmosphere can be quickly determined. A diffusion situation prediction system capable of predicting has been proposed (see Patent Documents 1 and 2).

Japanese Patent No. 4209354 JP 2010-117195 A

  However, in the conventional diffusion state prediction system for diffusing substances, it is assumed that the disaster time is calculated from a known state, and the calculation is such that the disaster time is undecided and the release amount also changes over time. Not targeted. Therefore, there is a need for a diffusion prediction system for creating a hazard map under such conditions. In addition, since the computation when the disaster time changes and the amount of discharge also changes with time is enormous, a practical method with a reduced amount of computation is also required.

  Therefore, there is a need for a diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials that can predict the actual diffusion state of diffusion materials with higher accuracy while taking into account the topographical effects of the surrounding topography of a diffusion source such as a nuclear power plant. It has been.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and is a diffusion state prediction system for a diffusion material capable of making a more accurate prediction with an emphasis on practical use of the diffusion state of a diffusion material from a diffusion source. The purpose is to provide.

  The first invention of the present invention for solving the above-described problem is a calculation area corresponding to a geographical area of a preset area including a target point where a diffusion source for releasing a diffusing material into the atmosphere exists. Meteorological data including the wind direction, wind speed and stability of the target date and time when the diffusion material is released from the diffusion source, and the meteorological data and diffusion material input unit for inputting the amount of the diffusion material released at the target date and time; At least the wind direction, wind speed, and stability are obtained based on the weather data of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit, and based on the obtained wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the meteorological data of the target date and time. An airflow field data calculation unit that obtains airflow field data for each predetermined time period up to a predetermined period by performing an operation using an airflow field calculation model that analyzes atmospheric phenomena; The diffusion field data calculation for obtaining the diffusion field data of the diffusion material by performing the calculation using the diffusion calculation model for calculating the diffusion state of the diffusion material continuously using the respective airflow field data obtained by the unit. And the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit assumes that the disaster time at which the diffusion material is released from the diffusion source has shifted every predetermined time until the predetermined time period. (Since the disaster time is undecided, the disaster time is shifted every predetermined time), the meteorological data at that time and the amount of the diffused material released are input, and the airflow field data calculation unit and the diffusion field data calculation unit are A diffusion state prediction system for a diffusion material, characterized in that diffusion field data at each disaster time input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit is obtained.

  According to a second aspect of the present invention, there is provided a combination including at least wind direction, wind speed, and stability in a calculation area corresponding to a geographical area having a predetermined area including a target point where a diffusion source that discharges diffused substances to the atmosphere exists. A storage unit storing an airflow field database in which airflow field data of a plurality of different cases is obtained in advance, meteorological data on a target date and time when the diffusion material is released from the diffusion source, and the diffusion material on the target date and time The at least wind direction, wind speed, and stability are obtained in advance based on the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit to which the amount of released gas is input and the meteorological data of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit. Airflow field data corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the weather data of the target date and time is obtained from the airflow field database, and the airflow field data corresponding to the predetermined period is determined. An airflow field data calculation unit for obtaining airflow field data at a predetermined predetermined time, and a diffusion calculation model for calculating the diffusion state of the diffusing material from the airflow field data at the target date and time obtained by the airflow field data calculation unit The diffusion field data of the diffusing material is obtained by performing an operation using the airflow field data obtained for each predetermined time by the predetermined period, and the diffusion calculation model is used for the calculation. Diffusion field data obtained in the predetermined time period is calculated by using the diffusion field data obtained in the time period as an initial value and calculating the diffusion field data in the next time period and repeating the calculation to obtain the diffusion field data for the predetermined time period until the predetermined period A field data calculation unit, and the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit has a disaster time when the diffusion material is released from the diffusion source until the predetermined period. , The meteorological data at that time and the amount of the diffused substance released are input, and the diffusion field data calculation unit is input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit. A diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing material, characterized in that diffusion field data for each predetermined period of time until the predetermined period at the time of disaster is obtained.

  According to a third aspect, in the second aspect, the storage unit includes a plurality of cases of diffusion fields having different combinations including at least the wind direction, the wind speed, and the stability in the calculation area. A diffusion field database in which data is obtained in advance is stored, and the diffusion field data calculation unit is based on the weather data of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit, and the diffusion field database obtained in advance Obtaining the diffusion field data corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed and stability of the weather data of the target date and time, and obtaining the diffusion field data at predetermined time intervals up to a predetermined time period, the weather data In the diffusion material input unit, the disaster time at which the diffusion material is released from the diffusion source is shifted every predetermined time until the predetermined period. The meteorological data at that time and the amount of the diffused material released are input, and the diffusion field data calculation unit is configured to input the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit up to the predetermined period at each disaster time. A diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing material, wherein the diffusion field data for each predetermined time during the period is obtained by converting the amount of the diffusing material released at each target date and time.

  4th invention is 2nd or 3rd invention. WHEREIN: The said memory | storage part fixes the said wind speed to the predetermined value among the said weather data, and the airflow of several cases from which the combination of the said wind direction and the said stability differs Field data is stored in an airflow field database obtained in advance, the airflow field data calculation unit obtains airflow field data for each predetermined time until the predetermined period, and the diffusion field data calculation unit A diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing material, characterized in that diffusion field data for each predetermined time until a period is obtained.

  According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, in any one of the first to fourth aspects, the diffusion field data calculation unit is obtained when it is assumed that the disaster time has shifted every predetermined time by the predetermined period. The diffusion state prediction system of a diffusion material is characterized in that all diffusion field data are combined to obtain a maximum diffusion range of the diffusion material.

  According to a sixth invention, in any one of the first to fifth inventions, when the diffusing material is a radioactive material, the diffusion field data calculation unit is exposed based on the result of the obtained diffusion field data. This is a diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing material characterized in that the amount is obtained.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the more highly accurate prediction which made the practical aspect important the diffusion condition of the diffusion material from a diffusion source can be enabled.

FIG. 1 is a diagram simply illustrating a configuration of a diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing substance according to the first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of changes in wind direction, wind speed, and stability for one year. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the disaster occurrence time and the passage of time of the release amount of the radioactive substance. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the disaster time and the elapsed time of the release amount of the radioactive substance when it is assumed that the disaster time has shifted every hour during the year. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a result of annual calculation of the diffusion field of radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time every hour. FIG. 6 is a diagram simply illustrating the configuration of the diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing substance according to the second embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the constructed airflow field database. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the airflow field data classified according to weather conditions and the passage of time. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of diffusion field data. FIG. 10 is a diagram simply illustrating the configuration of the diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing substance according to the third embodiment. FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a diffusion field database. FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between diffusion field data classified according to weather conditions and time passage.

  Hereinafter, embodiments for carrying out the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In addition, this invention is not limited by the content described in the following Examples. In addition, constituent elements in the following embodiments include those that can be easily assumed by those skilled in the art, those that are substantially the same, and those in a so-called equivalent range. Furthermore, the constituent elements disclosed in the following embodiments can be appropriately combined.

<Diffusion state prediction system for diffusing substances>
A diffusion substance prediction system for a diffusing substance according to Example 1 of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In this embodiment, the case where the diffusing substance is a radioactive substance (particle) will be described.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram schematically illustrating the configuration of a diffusion state prediction system for a diffusion material according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, a diffusion substance diffusion state prediction system 10 </ b> A according to the present embodiment includes a meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 11, an airflow field data calculation unit 12, and a diffusion field data calculation unit 13.

(Meteorological data / Diffusion material input section)
The meteorological data / diffusive substance input unit 11 corresponds to a geographical area of a predetermined area including a target point where a diffusion source (for example, a nuclear power plant) that emits a radioactive substance as a diffused substance to the atmosphere exists. In the calculation area, the meteorological data including the wind direction, wind speed and stability at the target date and time when the radioactive material is released from the nuclear power plant, and the release amount of the radioactive material at the target date and time are input.

  In the present embodiment, the target date and time refers to the date and time when the diffusing material (radioactive material) is discharged into the atmosphere from the diffusion source (nuclear power station).

  The meteorological data α of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 11 is transmitted to the airflow field data calculation unit 12. Weather data α transmitted from the weather data / diffusion substance input unit 11 is input to the airflow field data calculation unit 12.

(Airflow field data calculation unit)
The airflow field data calculation unit 12 obtains the wind direction, the wind speed, and the stability based on the meteorological data α of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 11, and the wind direction of the meteorological data α of the obtained target date and time, By calculating with an airflow field calculation model that analyzes atmospheric phenomena based on the wind speed and stability, airflow field data for each hour in one year (365 days) is obtained.

  The stability is determined based on, for example, Passil's atmospheric stability classification. In Passil's atmospheric stability classification, the stability is determined from the wind speed and the amount of solar radiation in the daytime, and from the wind speed and the cloud cover at night. The stability may be calculated from the data elements (particularly wind speed and temperature) of the input weather data.

  By calculating the obtained wind direction, wind speed, and stability using an airflow field calculation model, airflow field data for every hour of one year is obtained.

  As the airflow field calculation model, for example, a conventionally known one is used. For example, a method using numerical fluid analysis (CFD: Computational Fluid Dynamics) by a numerical simulation model may be used.

  When CFD is used in the numerical simulation model, the meteorological data α of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 11 is calculated using the CFD, and the airflow field data at the unsteady time is calculated.

  In CFD, a calculation area corresponding to an actual geographical area (area on the earth's surface) is set in a computer, and the calculation area is divided into a grid, and variables (wind speed, temperature, etc.) at each grid point are divided. Is a calculation method for analyzing airflow field data or diffusion field data by time-integrating differential equations of variables.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of changes in wind direction, wind speed, and stability for one year. As shown in FIG. 2, by calculating the obtained wind direction, wind speed, and stability using an airflow field calculation model, airflow field data for every hour for one year (for 8760 hours) is obtained.

  In the present embodiment, the predetermined period is set to one year, the predetermined time is set to one hour, and 8760 hours of airflow field data is obtained. However, the present embodiment is not limited to this, The predetermined period may be any number of days, weeks, or years, and the predetermined time may be any number of minutes, hours, weeks, or years.

  The airflow field data dt calculated by the airflow field data calculation unit 12 is transmitted to the diffusion field data calculation unit 13.

(Diffusion field data calculation unit)
The diffusion field data calculation unit 13 uses the respective airflow field data dt obtained by the airflow field data calculation unit 12 to perform radioactivity by performing a calculation using a diffusion calculation model that calculates the diffusion state of the radioactive substance continuously in time. Obtain diffusion field data of materials. The diffusion field data indicates the diffusion situation (diffusion region, diffusion concentration) of the radioactive substance, and the diffusion situation of the radioactive substance can be predicted from this diffusion field data.

  As a diffusion calculation model, a conventionally known one is used. For example, a HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Concentration Transport Model) code developed by Colorado State University and US ATMET Corporation, a normal diffusion formula of the following formula (1) Examples include a method using (analysis solution) and a method using CFD by a numerical simulation model.

  When the normal diffusion formula (analysis solution) of the following formula (1) is used as the diffusion calculation model, the steady-state calculation for 8760 hours is performed using this formula, and the diffusion field data is obtained from the calculation result. You may create it.

ここで、式（１）中、ｘ、ｙ、ｚは座標であり、Ｃは濃度であり、Ｕは風速であり、Ｑは放出量であり、Ｈｅは放出源高さであり、σ_yは水平方向拡散幅（気象状態によって決まる量）であり、σ_zは鉛直方向拡散幅（気象状態によって決まる量）である。

Here, in Equation (1), x, y, and z are coordinates, C is a concentration, U is a wind speed, Q is an emission amount, He is an emission source height, and σ _y is The horizontal diffusion width (amount determined by weather conditions), and σ _z is the vertical diffusion width (amount determined by weather conditions).

  When CFD is used in the numerical simulation model, each non-steady airflow field data dt obtained by the airflow field data calculation unit 12 is calculated using the CFD, and the non-steady diffusion field data is calculated.

  In the diffusion material prediction system 10A according to the present embodiment, the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 11 has an accident occurrence time (disaster time) during which a radioactive material is released from a nuclear power plant until one year. Is assumed to be shifted every hour, the meteorological data at that time and the amount of radioactive material released are input, and the airflow field data calculation unit 12 and the diffusion field data calculation unit 13 are connected to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 11. The diffusion field data at each disaster time entered in is obtained. Since the disaster time is undecided, calculation is performed assuming that the disaster time is shifted every hour.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the time of the disaster and the passage of time of the amount of radioactive material released, and FIG. 4 is based on the assumption that the time of the disaster has shifted every hour up to one year It is a figure which shows description of the relationship between the disaster time of this and the time passage of the discharge | release amount of a radioactive substance. As shown in FIG. 3, when it is assumed that the radioactive material is generated from the diffusion source at the disaster time 1 (January 1, 1:00) and the disaster time 2 (January 2, 2:00), The release amount peaks immediately after each disaster time 1 and 2, and decreases with time. Therefore, assuming that radioactive materials are generated from the nuclear power plant at disaster times 1 and 2, respectively, as shown in FIG. 4, the disaster time is changed every hour from a predetermined time (for example, 1 January on January 1). Shifting to 8760 times of calculation (calculation for effective release duration) until 365 days (December 31, 24:00). As a result, diffusion field data at each disaster time 1, 2-8760 can be obtained.

  FIG. 5 shows an example of the result of annual calculation (for 8760 hours) of the radioactive substance diffusion field when the radioactive substance is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, disaster time j). As shown in FIG. 5, from diffusion field data obtained by calculating annual diffusion (for 8760 hours) every hour when radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, disaster time j). The diffusion state (diffusion region, diffusion concentration) of the radioactive substance when the radioactive substance is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, disaster time j) in the calculation area can be obtained.

  Further, the diffusion field data calculation unit 13 can calculate the exposure dose from the diffusion field data from the diffusion state of the radioactive substance in the calculation region.

Also, the annual average concentration of radioactive material when radioactive material is released at the disaster time j is C ^j, and the concentration for one hour at time i when the radioactive material is released at the disaster time j Is C ^j _i , the annual average concentration C ^j of the radioactive substance can be expressed by the following formula (2). Below, the case where an evaluation object is made into an annual average value is demonstrated. The same approach can be adopted when the evaluation targets are different.

（式中、ｉ、ｊは１〜８７６０の整数である。）

(In the formula, i and j are integers of 1 to 8760.)

The maximum range of influence (maximum concentration) of annual average concentration C ^j of radioactive material in disaster time j is represented by the following formula (3).
^{Cmax = Max (C j) ···} (3)
(In the formula, j is an integer of 1 to 8760.)

  Accordingly, the diffusion field data calculation unit 13 calculates all diffusion field data obtained by calculating every hour from the disaster time during a year at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j). By combining them, it is possible to extract the maximum influence range for each direction of the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j). Thereby, the diffusion field data indicating the maximum influence range of the radioactive substance when the radioactive substance is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) can be created as a hazard map.

  The maximum influence range of the radioactive substance can be set as appropriate. For example, a range exceeding the evaluation standard of the radioactive substance is set.

  As described above, according to the diffusion state prediction system 10A for the diffusion material according to the present embodiment, the diffusion state of the radioactive material that is the diffusion material from the nuclear power plant (diffusion source) is more accurately focused on practical aspects. Prediction becomes possible. That is, the diffusion material prediction system 10A according to the present embodiment provides the weather when the radioactive material is released every predetermined time from a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) to a predetermined period. Diffusion field data is calculated based on conditions, the amount of radioactive substance released, etc., and the calculation is performed as faithfully as possible according to actual conditions. Therefore, the diffusion field data obtained by the diffusion field data calculation unit 13 is predetermined. It is possible to obtain diffusion field data close to the actual state of diffusion of radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at the time of disaster (for example, disaster time j), and to obtain the exposure dose in the calculation region .

  Therefore, it is difficult to predict the time of the disaster, but regardless of the occurrence of the disaster, always create the diffusion field data when radioactive material is released from the nuclear power plant, and grasp the maximum impact range of the radioactive material can do. Moreover, if necessary, diffusion field data can be created in consideration of temporal changes in the amount of radioactive material released from nuclear power plants. For this reason, when an accident occurs, radioactive materials are released from the nuclear power plant, and evacuation of residents in the diffusion area can be performed accurately when it is diffused.

  In the present embodiment, the case where the diffusion state of the radioactive material released from the nuclear power plant as the diffusing material is predicted has been described. However, the present embodiment is not limited to this, for example, a chimney of a factory. When gas body (smoke) discharged from the atmosphere diffuses into the atmosphere, it can be applied to calculate the gas body concentration at each point or to analyze the diffusion status of diffusing substances in the environmental assessment analysis. it can.

<Diffusion state prediction system for diffusing substances>
The diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing material according to Example 2 of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The description of the diffusion state prediction system for the diffusion material according to the present embodiment is omitted for the configuration common to the diffusion state prediction system for the diffusion material according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention shown in FIG.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram simply illustrating the configuration of the diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 6, the diffusion substance diffusion state prediction system 10B according to the present embodiment includes a storage unit 21A, a meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22, an airflow field data calculation unit 23, and a diffusion field data calculation unit. 24A. The meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22 is the same as the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 11, the airflow field data calculation unit 23 is the same as the airflow field data calculation unit 12, and the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A is a diffusion. This is the same as the field data calculation unit 13.

(Memory part)
The storage unit 21A has different combinations including wind direction, wind speed, and stability in a calculation area corresponding to a geographical area of a preset area including a target point where a nuclear power plant that discharges radioactive materials into the atmosphere exists. An airflow field database DB in which airflow field data of a plurality of cases is obtained in advance is stored.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the constructed airflow field database DB. As shown in FIG. 7, the airflow field database DB has different wind directions (16 directions: 1 to 16), wind speeds (6 wind speed classes: 1 to 6), and stability (6 stability: 1 to 6), 576. It consists of airflow field data (d (1-1-1) to d (16-6-6)) of streets (16 ways × 6 ways × 6 ways = 576 ways). Each airflow field data (for example, d (1-1-1)) is an airflow field in a specific wind direction, wind speed, and stability (for example, the wind direction is one direction, the wind speed is one class, and the stability is one stability). It is the three-dimensional airflow data of the calculation object area | region calculated by the calculation model.

  The storage unit 21A stores the airflow field database DB obtained in advance in this way.

  In the present embodiment, the weather condition classification of the airflow field data is 16 directions, the wind speed is 6 wind speed classes, the stability is 6 stability, and the total is 576, but this embodiment is limited to this. The wind direction is classified in the range of 4 to 32 directions, the wind speed is classified in the range of 3 to 9 and the stability is changed from “unstable” to “stable”. For example, you may classify | categorize within the range of 3 steps or more and 9 steps or less. It can be changed as appropriate in consideration of the geographical situation of the calculation area.

  In this embodiment, the airflow field database DB uses airflow field data in which the weather condition classification is 576 cases with different combinations of wind direction, wind speed, and stability, but this embodiment is not limited to this. Instead, it may change according to the weather condition classification.

(Meteorological data / Diffusion material input section)
The meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22 receives the meteorological data of the target date and time when the radioactive substance is released from the nuclear power plant, and the release amount of the radioactive substance at the target date and time.

  The meteorological data α input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22 is transmitted to the airflow field data calculation unit 23. The airflow field data calculation unit 23 receives meteorological data α of the target date and time from the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22.

(Airflow field data calculation unit)
The airflow field data calculation unit 23 obtains the wind direction, the wind speed, and the stability based on the meteorological data α of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22, and the meteorological data of the target date and time from the airflow field database DB obtained in advance. Airflow field data corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the data is obtained, and airflow field data for each predetermined hour in a predetermined year (365 days) is obtained.

  The wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the target date and time are obtained in the same manner as the airflow field data calculation unit 12 in the first embodiment based on the weather data of the target date and time.

The airflow field data calculation unit 23 performs the following calculation to obtain airflow field data corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the weather data α of the target date and time. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the airflow field data classified according to weather conditions and the passage of time.
(1) First, from the “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the meteorological data α, which is input as the first hour of the radioactive material from the nuclear power plant at a predetermined disaster time 1 (for example, January 1, 1 o'clock) Corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the weather data α from the airflow field database DB including the airflow field data classified in 576 weather conditions with different “wind direction, wind speed and stability” stored in the storage unit 21A. The airflow field data d which is “wind direction, wind speed and stability” is extracted. The extracted airflow field data d is transmitted to the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A as airflow field data dt.
(2) If there is no airflow field data d having “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” of weather data α, “wind direction, wind speed” of weather data α And a plurality of airflow field data having “wind direction, wind speed and stability” very close to “and stability”. Then, new airflow field data that has the same “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” as the “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” of the weather data α are obtained by interpolating the plurality of extracted airflow field data. This new airflow field data is transmitted to the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A as the airflow field data dt.
(3) Next, from the “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” of the weather data α after the next hour (that is, the second hour after a predetermined disaster time 1 (for example, January 1, 1 o'clock)), Airflow field data d having “wind direction, wind speed and stability” corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the weather data α is extracted from the airflow field database DB stored in the storage unit 21A. The extracted airflow field data d is transmitted to the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A as airflow field data dt.
(4) As described above, airflow field data having “wind direction, wind speed and stability” corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the weather data α in the next hour is selected from the airflow field database DB. Then, the airflow field data d is extracted from the airflow field database DB and transmitted to the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A as the airflow field data dt.

(Diffusion field data calculation unit)
The diffusion field data calculation unit 24A performs diffusion of the radioactive material by calculating the airflow field data dt at the target date and time obtained by the airflow field data calculation unit 23 using a diffusion calculation model that calculates the diffusion state of the radioactive material. Find field data.

  Further, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A performs an operation using the diffusion calculation model using each airflow field data dt obtained every hour by one year, and the diffusion field data dKt obtained in the previous time zone. Is used as an initial value to calculate diffusion field data for the next time zone, and by repeating this, diffusion field data for each hour in one year is obtained. That is, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A uses the diffusion field data obtained at the nth hour of a predetermined disaster time (for example, January 1, 1 o'clock) as an initial value after the next hour (n + 1 hour). ), The next diffusion field data is updated, and the annual diffusion calculation (effective emission duration) is continuously performed. Note that n is an integer of 0 or more.

  As a result, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A hazards the diffusion field data as shown in FIG. 9 at each disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22. Ask as a map.

  In the diffusion material prediction system 10B according to the present embodiment, the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22 has a predetermined disaster time (for example, disaster time j) at which the radioactive material is released from the nuclear power plant. When annual calculation (8760 hours) is performed assuming that there is a shift every hour during one year, the meteorological data α and the amount of radioactive material released at that time are input, and the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A Each diffusion field data for every hour in one year at each disaster time (for example, disaster time j) input to the data / diffusion substance input unit 22 can be obtained.

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 3, when it is assumed that the radioactive material is generated from the nuclear power plant at the disaster time 1 (January 1, 1:00) and the disaster time 2 (January 1, 2:00), For example, the amount of radioactive material released reaches a peak immediately after each disaster time 1 and 2, and decreases with time. Therefore, assuming that the radioactive materials are generated from the nuclear power plant at the disaster times 1 and 2, respectively, as shown in FIG. 8, the disaster time is changed every hour from a predetermined time (for example, 1:00 on January 1). As a result, 8760 times of annual calculation (calculation for effective release duration) until 365 days (December 31, 24:00) are performed. Thereby, each diffusion field data in each disaster time 1-8760 can be calculated | required.

  Therefore, the airflow field data calculation unit 23 corresponds to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of weather data at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) from the airflow field database DB stored in advance in the storage unit 21A. By using field data, diffusion field data obtained by calculating annual diffusion (for 8760 hours) of radioactive materials every hour when radioactive materials are released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, disaster time j) Can be easily obtained. Therefore, the diffusion state (diffusion region, diffusion concentration) of the radioactive substance when the radioactive substance is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) in the calculation region can be easily obtained.

  The diffusion field data calculation unit 24A can calculate the exposure dose from the diffusion field data based on the diffusion state of the radioactive substance in the calculation region.

  In addition, depending on the weather conditions in the calculation area including the nuclear power plant, the classification of weather may be reduced. In such a case, the number of cases with different combinations of wind direction, wind speed and stability is further reduced. And diffusion field data can be calculated more quickly.

Assuming that the annual average concentration of radioactive material at the disaster time j is C ^j and the concentration for one hour at the time i at the disaster time j is C ^j _i , the annual average concentration C ^j of the radioactive material is expressed by the following formula ( 2). Below, the case where an evaluation object is made into an annual average value is demonstrated. The same approach can be adopted when the evaluation targets are different.

（式中、ｉ、ｊは１〜８７６０の整数である。）

(In the formula, i and j are integers of 1 to 8760.)

The maximum range of influence (maximum concentration) of annual average concentration C ^j of radioactive material in disaster time j is represented by the following formula (3).
^{Cmax = Max (C j) ···} (3)
(In the formula, j is an integer of 1 to 8760.)

  Therefore, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A calculates all diffusion field data obtained by calculating every hour from the disaster time during a year at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j). By combining them, it is possible to extract the maximum influence range in each direction of the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j), and a hazard that does not depend on the disaster time You can create a map. Thereby, diffusion field data indicating the maximum influence range of the radioactive substance when the radioactive substance is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) can also be created as a hazard map.

  The maximum influence range of the radioactive substance can be set as appropriate. For example, a range exceeding the evaluation standard of the radioactive substance is set.

  As described above, according to the diffusion state prediction system 10B according to the present embodiment, it is possible to more accurately and efficiently predict the diffusion state of the radioactive material that is the diffusion material from the nuclear power plant (diffusion source). it can. That is, in the diffusion state prediction system 10A for the diffusing material according to Example 1, the annual calculation of 8760 cases (for one year) is performed with one year after one hour at each predetermined disaster time (for example, disaster time j). carry out. The diffusion state prediction system 10B for the diffusing material according to the present embodiment classifies the annual calculation of the airflow field of 8760 cases performed at each predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) into the airflow field of 576 cases. Therefore, the calculation amount of the airflow field can be reduced. Thereby, the diffusion state of the radioactive substance can be predicted more efficiently in a short time. As a result, the diffusion field data obtained by the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A is a diffusion that approximates the actual diffusion state of the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j). Field data can be obtained and the exposure dose in the calculation area can be obtained.

  Therefore, it is difficult to predict the time of the disaster, but always create diffusion field data when radioactive materials are released from nuclear power plants more efficiently in a short time, and grasp the maximum influence range of radioactive materials be able to. Moreover, if necessary, diffusion field data can be efficiently created in a short time, taking into account the temporal change in the amount of radioactive material released from the nuclear power plant. For this reason, it is possible to accurately evacuate residents in the diffusion area when radioactive materials are released from the nuclear power plant and diffused.

<Diffusion state prediction system for diffusing substances>
A diffusion state prediction system for a diffusing substance according to Example 3 according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Further, the diffusion substance prediction state prediction system according to the present embodiment will not be described with respect to the configuration common to the diffusion substance diffusion state prediction system according to Embodiments 1 and 2 of the present invention shown in FIGS.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram simply illustrating the configuration of the diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 10, the diffusion substance diffusion state prediction system 10C according to the present embodiment includes a storage unit 21B, a meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22, an airflow field data calculation unit 23, and a diffusion field data calculation unit. 24B. The weather data / diffusion substance input unit 22 is the same as the weather data / diffusion substance input unit 11, and the airflow field data calculation unit 23 is the same as the airflow field data calculation unit 12.

(Memory part)
The storage unit 21B is a diffusion field in which diffusion field data of a plurality of cases having different combinations including the wind direction, the wind speed, and the stability in the calculation region are obtained from the airflow field database DB and each airflow field data of the airflow field database DB. A database DBK is stored.

  The storage unit 21B constructs an airflow field database DB as shown in FIG.

  The wind direction (16 directions: 1 to 16), wind speed (6 wind speed classes: 1 to 6), and stability (6 stability: 1 to 6) as shown in FIG. 7 are included in the airflow field database DB. By substituting 576 different airflow field data (d (1-1-1) to d (16-6-6)) into the diffusion equation for calculating the diffusion state of the radioactive substance, respectively, it is shown in FIG. 576 kinds of diffusion field data (dK (1-1-1) to dK (16-6-6)) having different wind directions, wind speeds, and stability are obtained. Each diffusion field data (for example, dK (1-1-1)) is an airflow field in a specific wind direction, wind speed, and stability (for example, the wind direction is one direction, the wind speed is one class, and the stability is one stability). It is the three-dimensional airflow data calculated by the calculation model.

  The storage unit 21B stores the diffusion field database DBK previously obtained in this way.

  In addition, the diffusion field database DBK may convert the unit release amount of the radioactive substance into each airflow field data of the airflow field database DB, for example.

  In the present embodiment, the weather condition classification of the diffusion field data is the same as the weather condition classification of the airflow field data, the wind direction is 16 directions, the wind speed is 6 wind speed classes, the stability is 6 stability, and a total of 576 ways. However, the present embodiment is not limited to this. Like the weather condition classification of the airflow field data, the wind direction is classified into a range of, for example, 4 to 32 directions, and the wind speed is, for example, 3 to 9 Classification may be made within the range of the class or less, and the stability may be classified from “unstable” to “stable”, for example, within a range of 3 to 9 levels. It can be changed as appropriate in consideration of the geographical situation of the calculation area.

  In this embodiment, the diffusion field database DBK uses diffusion field data in which the weather condition classification is 576 cases with different combinations of wind direction, wind speed and stability, but this embodiment is not limited to this. Instead, it may change according to the weather condition classification.

(Meteorological data / Diffusion material input section)
The meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22 receives the meteorological data of the target date and time when the radioactive substance is released from the nuclear power plant, and the release amount of the radioactive substance at the target date and time.

  The meteorological data α input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 22 is transmitted to the airflow field data calculation unit 23. The airflow field data calculation unit 23 receives meteorological data α of the target date and time from the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22.

(Airflow field data calculation unit)
The airflow field data calculation unit 23 is the same as the airflow field data calculation unit 23 of the second embodiment. That is, the airflow field data calculation unit 23 obtains the wind direction, the wind speed, and the stability based on the weather data α of the target date and time input to the weather data / diffusion material input unit 22, and obtains the target date and time from the airflow field database DB obtained in advance. The airflow field data corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed and stability of the meteorological data is obtained, and the airflow field data for every predetermined hour in the predetermined year (365 days) is obtained.

  The airflow field data dt calculated and extracted by the airflow field data calculation unit 23 is transmitted to the diffusion field data calculation unit 24B.

(Diffusion field data calculation unit)
Based on the weather data α of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24 B obtains the “wind direction, wind speed and Corresponding to the “stability”, diffusion field data dKt for the unit emission amount of 576 cases with different combinations of at least wind direction, wind speed and stability obtained in advance is obtained.

  Further, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24B obtains diffusion field data dKt for every hour of a predetermined year.

The diffusion field data calculation unit 24B performs the following calculation to obtain diffusion field data corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the weather data of the target date and time. FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between diffusion field data classified according to weather conditions and time passage.
(1) From the “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the meteorological data α input from the diffusion source as the first hour at a predetermined disaster time 1 (for example, January 1, 1 o'clock) from the diffusion source, the storage unit From the diffusion field database DBK including diffusion field data classified into 576 weather conditions with different “wind directions, wind speeds and stability” stored in 21B, “wind direction, wind speed and stability” corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the weather data α is stored. Diffusion field data dK with “wind speed and stability” is extracted. The extracted diffusion field data dK is output as diffusion field data dKt.

(2) If there is no diffusion field data dK having “wind direction, wind speed and stability” corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of weather data α, “wind direction, wind speed” of weather data α And a plurality of diffusion field data having “wind direction, wind speed and stability” very close to “and stability”. Then, new diffusion field data having the same “wind direction, wind speed and stability” as the “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the weather data α are obtained by interpolating the extracted plurality of diffusion field data. The new diffusion field data is output as diffusion field data dKt.
(3) Next, from the “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” of the weather data α after the next hour (that is, the second hour after a predetermined disaster time 1 (for example, January 1, 1 o'clock)), The diffusion field data dK having “wind direction, wind speed and stability” corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of the weather data α is extracted from the diffusion field database DBK stored in the storage unit 21B. The extracted diffusion field data dK is output as diffusion field data dKt.
(4) As described above, the diffusion field data dK having the “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” corresponding to the “wind direction, wind speed, and stability” of the weather data α after the next hour is obtained from the diffusion field database DBK. The diffusion field data dK is extracted from the diffusion field database DBK and output as diffusion field data dKt.

  In the diffusion material prediction system 10C according to the present embodiment, the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit 22 has a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) at which the radioactive material is released from the nuclear power plant. When the annual calculation (for 8760 hours) is performed assuming that the hour is shifted every hour during one year, the meteorological data α and the amount of radioactive material released at that time are input, and the airflow field data calculation unit 23 stores the storage unit. The airflow field data dt corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the meteorological data of the target date and time is obtained from the airflow field database DB stored in advance in 21B, and the diffusion calculation of the unit release amount of the radioactive substance in the airflow field is performed. The diffusion field data dKt is obtained from the diffusion field database DBK while taking into consideration. And the diffusion field data calculation part 24B calculates | requires each diffusion field data for every hour of 1 year in each disaster time (for example, disaster time j) input into the meteorological data / diffusion substance input part 22. it can.

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 3, when it is assumed that radioactive materials are generated from the nuclear power plant at the disaster time 1 (January 1, 1:00) and the disaster time 2 (January 1, 2:00) The amount of radioactive material released reaches a peak immediately after each disaster time 1 and 2, and decreases with time. Therefore, assuming that radioactive materials are generated from the nuclear power plant at the disaster time 1 and 2, respectively, as shown in FIG. 12, the disaster time is set every hour from a predetermined time (for example, 1:00 on January 1). Shift every time and perform 8760 annual calculations (calculation for effective release duration) until 365 days later (24 o'clock on December 31) to obtain each diffusion field data at each disaster time 1-8760 be able to.

  Therefore, the airflow field data calculating unit 23 and the diffusion field data calculating unit 24B are meteorological events at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) from the airflow field database DB and the diffusion field database DBK stored in the storage unit 21B in advance. By using the airflow field data d and diffusion field data dK corresponding to the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the data, the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) Diffusion field data in which diffusion is calculated every hour (for 8760 hours) can be easily obtained. Therefore, the diffusion state (diffusion region, diffusion concentration) of the radioactive substance when the radioactive substance is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) in the calculation region can be easily obtained.

  Further, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24B can calculate the exposure dose from the diffusion field data based on the diffusion state of the radioactive substance in the calculation region.

  In addition, depending on the weather conditions in the calculation area including the nuclear power plant, the classification of weather may be reduced. In such a case, the number of cases with different combinations of wind direction, wind speed and stability is further reduced. And diffusion field data can be calculated more quickly.

The weather classification condition of the diffusion field data stored in the diffusion field database DBK is No. The unit release amount of radioactive material at K, where Rd _k is the one-hour concentration at unit wind speed, and C ^j is the annual average concentration of radioactive material when radioactive material is released at the disaster time j Assuming that the concentration for one hour at the time i when the radioactive material is released at the disaster time j is C ^j _i , the annual average concentration C ^j of the radioactive material is expressed by the following equation (2). Then, the concentration C ^j _i for one hour at the time i when the radioactive substance is released at the disaster time j can be expressed as the following formula (4). Below, the case where an evaluation object is made into an annual average value is demonstrated. The same approach can be adopted when the evaluation targets are different.

（式中、ｉ、ｊは１〜８７６０の整数である。）

(In the formula, i and j are integers of 1 to 8760.)

The maximum range of influence (maximum concentration) of annual average concentration C ^j of radioactive material in disaster time j is represented by the following formula (3).
^{Cmax = Max (C j) ···} (3)
(In the formula, j is an integer of 1 to 8760.)

  Therefore, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24B calculates all diffusion field data obtained by calculating every hour from the disaster time during a year at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j). By combining them, it is possible to extract the maximum influence range in each direction of the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j), and a hazard that does not depend on the disaster time You can create a map. This also makes it possible to create a hazard map indicating the maximum influence range of the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j).

  The maximum influence range of the radioactive substance can be set as appropriate, as described above. For example, a range exceeding the evaluation standard of the radioactive substance is set.

  As described above, according to the diffusion state prediction system 10C for the diffusing substance according to the present embodiment, when the airflow field data dt and the diffusion field data dKt are obtained, the airflow field database DB prepared in advance and the airflow field are used. Corresponding to “wind direction, wind speed and stability” of meteorological data α of the target date and time at a given disaster time (for example, disaster time j) from the diffusion field database DBK calculated by diffusion of unit release amount of radioactive materials By simply extracting the airflow field data dt and the diffusion field data dKt that are “wind direction, wind speed and stability”, the calculation when the disaster time is different is simplified, and the annual calculation of the diffusion field of 576 cases The amount of calculation can be reduced by using a database. Thereby, since the airflow field data dt and the diffusion field data dKt can be obtained in a short time, the diffusion state of the radioactive substance can be further efficiently obtained in a short time. As a result, the diffusion field data obtained by the diffusion field data calculation unit 24B is a diffusion that approximates the actual diffusion state of the radioactive material when the radioactive material is released at a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j). The field data can be obtained more quickly and easily, and the exposure dose in the calculation area can be obtained quickly.

  Therefore, it is possible to always efficiently create diffusion field data when radioactive material is released from a nuclear power plant in a short time, and to quickly grasp the maximum influence range of the radioactive material. For this reason, it is possible to evacuate residents in the diffusion area more quickly and accurately when radioactive materials are released from the nuclear power plant and diffused.

<Diffusion state prediction system for diffusing substances>
A diffusion substance prediction system for a diffusing substance according to Example 4 of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In addition, regarding the diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials according to the present embodiment, the description of the configuration in common with the diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials according to Embodiments 1 to 3 of the present invention shown in FIGS. To do.

  As shown in FIG. 6, in the diffusion state prediction system 10B of the diffusion material according to the second embodiment, the storage unit 21A sets the wind speed of the weather data to a predetermined value, as shown in FIG. (For example, it is fixed to 1), and 96 types (16 types × 6 types = 96 types) of airflow field data with different combinations of wind direction (for example, 16 directions) and stability (for example, 6 stability) are obtained in advance. Stored in the airflow field database.

  The airflow field data calculation unit 23 obtains hourly airflow field data for one year from a predetermined disaster time (for example, the disaster time j) based on the airflow field database stored in the storage unit 21A.

  Based on the obtained airflow field data, the diffusion field data calculation unit 24A considers the unit release amount of the radioactive substance in the representative weather (wind speed is 1 m / s, for example), the wind direction (for example, 16 directions), The diffusion field data of 96 kinds (16 kinds × 6 kinds = 96 kinds) of radioactive substances different from the stability (for example, 6 stability) are obtained, and the exposure dose corresponding to this is calculated.

  Further, since the radioactive material diffuses and the concentration decreases as the wind speed increases, the difference in wind speed is corrected by being converted to be inversely proportional to the wind speed.

  Therefore, according to the diffusion state prediction system of the diffusion material according to the present embodiment, it is not necessary to classify the annual weather according to the wind speed class, and it is only necessary to calculate the diffusion amount of the radioactive material according to the wind direction and the stability. It is possible to further simplify the annual calculation of the diffusion field performed at the time of the disaster (for example, the disaster time j) and reduce the amount of calculation. For this reason, the airflow field data dt and the diffusion field data dKt can be obtained in a short time, and the diffusion state of the radioactive substance can be further efficiently obtained in a short time. As a result, diffusion field data approximate to the actual state of radioactive material diffusion can be obtained more quickly and easily, and the exposure dose in the calculation region can be obtained.

10A to 10C Diffusion substance diffusion state prediction system 11 Meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit 12 Airflow field data calculation unit 13 Diffusion field data calculation unit 21A, 21B Storage unit 22 Weather data / diffusion material input unit 23 Airflow field data calculation unit 24A , 24B Diffusion field data calculation unit α Meteorological data dt Airflow field data dKt Diffusion field data

Claims (6)

Wind direction and speed of the target date and time when the diffused material is released from the diffused source in a calculation area corresponding to a geographical area of a preset area including the target point where the diffused source that releases the diffused substance into the atmosphere exists And meteorological data including the stability, and a meteorological data / diffusing substance input unit for inputting the amount of the diffused substance released at the target date and time,
At least the wind direction, wind speed, and stability are obtained based on the weather data of the target date and time input to the weather data / diffusion material input unit, and based on the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the meteorological data of the obtained target date and time. An airflow field data calculation unit that obtains airflow field data for each predetermined time period up to a predetermined period by performing an operation using an airflow field calculation model that analyzes atmospheric phenomena;
The diffusion field data of the diffusing material is obtained by performing a calculation using a diffusion calculation model that calculates the diffusion state of the diffusing material in a time-continuous manner using each of the airflow field data obtained by the airflow field data calculation unit. The required diffusion field data calculation unit,
Have
In the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit, when it is assumed that the disaster time at which the diffusing substance is released from the diffusion source has shifted every predetermined time until the predetermined period, the meteorological data at that time and An amount of the diffusion material released is input,
The diffusion field prediction system for a diffusion material, wherein the airflow field data calculation unit and the diffusion field data calculation unit obtain diffusion field data at each disaster time inputted to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit . Airflow in multiple cases with different combinations including at least wind direction, wind speed, and stability in a calculation area corresponding to a geographical area of a preset area including a target point where a diffusion source that emits diffused substances to the atmosphere exists A storage unit storing an airflow field database in which field data is obtained in advance;
Meteorological data / diffusion material input unit for inputting the meteorological data of the target date and time when the diffusion material is released from the diffusion source, and the release amount of the diffusion material at the target date and time;
Based on the meteorological data of the target date and time input to the meteorological data / diffusion material input unit, at least the wind direction, wind speed and stability are obtained, and the wind direction, wind speed of the meteorological data of the target date and time are obtained from the airflow field database obtained in advance. An airflow field data calculation unit for obtaining airflow field data corresponding to the stability, and obtaining airflow field data at predetermined time intervals up to a predetermined period;
While calculating the diffusion field data of the diffusing material by performing an operation using the diffusion calculation model for calculating the diffusion state of the diffusing material, the airflow field data at the target date and time obtained in the airflow field data calculation unit, Using the diffusion calculation model using each of the airflow field data obtained every predetermined time until a predetermined period, using the diffusion field data obtained in the previous time zone as an initial value, A diffusion field data calculation unit for calculating diffusion field data for the predetermined time period until the predetermined period while calculating the diffusion field data of the time zone and repeating it,
Have
In the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit, when it is assumed that the disaster time at which the diffusing substance is released from the diffusion source has shifted every predetermined time until the predetermined period, the meteorological data at that time and An amount of the diffusion material released is input,
The diffusion field data calculation unit obtains diffusion field data for each predetermined time period up to the predetermined period at each disaster time input to the meteorological data / diffusive substance input unit. Diffusion situation prediction system. In claim 2,
The storage unit stores a diffusion field database in which diffusion field data of a plurality of cases having different combinations including at least a wind direction, a wind speed, and stability in the calculation region are stored in each airflow field data of the airflow field database. ,
The diffusion field data calculation unit is configured to calculate the wind direction, wind speed, and stability of the weather data of the target date and time from the diffusion field database obtained in advance based on the weather data of the target date and time input to the meteorological data and diffusion material input unit. The diffusion field data for the unit discharge amounts of a plurality of cases with different combinations including at least the wind direction, wind speed, and stability obtained in advance is obtained, and diffusion is performed at predetermined time intervals up to a predetermined time period. Is for field data,
In the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit, when it is assumed that the disaster time at which the diffusing substance is released from the diffusion source has shifted every predetermined time until the predetermined period, the meteorological data at that time and An amount of the diffusion material released is input,
The diffusion field data calculation unit is configured to convert the diffusion field data for each predetermined time period up to the predetermined period at each disaster time input to the meteorological data / diffusion substance input unit into the diffusion field at each target date and time. A system for predicting the diffusion status of a diffusing material, characterized by converting the amount of material released. In claim 2 or 3,
The storage unit stores the airflow field data of a plurality of cases in which a combination of the wind direction and the stability is different and the wind speed is fixed to a predetermined value in the weather data in a predetermined airflow field database,
The airflow field data calculation unit obtains airflow field data for each predetermined time until the predetermined period,
The diffusion field data calculation unit obtains diffusion field data for each predetermined period of time until the predetermined period. In any one of Claims 1 thru | or 4,
The diffusion field data calculation unit obtains the maximum diffusion range of the diffusion material by combining all the diffusion field data obtained when it is assumed that the disaster time has shifted every predetermined time by the predetermined period. A diffusion state prediction system for diffusion materials characterized by In any one of claims 1 to 5,
When the diffusion material is a radioactive material,
The diffusion field data calculation unit obtains an exposure amount based on the obtained result of the diffusion field data.

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