JP2011137674A - Environmental concentration prediction apparatus, environmental concentration predicting method, and program of the method - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a technique for predicting environmental concentrations, when the forms of various emission sources are combined. <P>SOLUTION: A concentration distribution of the form (a spot source, an area source, and a line source) of each emission source is computed in S102-S104. The coordinates of each computed concentration distribution are transformed so as to compute a synthesized concentration distribution, acquired by synthesizing each concentration distribution at common coordinates in S106. Computed synthesis concentration distributions and observed values are processed so as to make the concentration distributions smooth, through the use of an advection-diffusion computation technique to compute a combined smooth concentration distribution in S107. A smooth concentration distribution of the form of each emission source is computed, on the basis of the combined smooth concentration distribution to compute the difference between a computed smooth concentration distribution of the form of each emission source and a concentration distribution prior to the transform process as a correction value in S108-S109. Computations are repeated, until the absolute values of all the correction values become less than a preset threshold (S110) and environmental concentrations (S112) are predicted. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for predicting the concentration distribution of air pollutants.

  The simulation technology for predicting the concentration of air pollutants is based on the release form of air pollutants into the atmosphere (form of emission source), point source (when emitted from one point such as a chimney), surface source (release source is And a prediction method suitable for each form of each emission source is disclosed. For example, Non-Patent Document 1 (see “4-6 Diffusion Formula and Diffusion Parameters”) describes a concentration prediction method after diffusion in the form of each emission source.

Pollution Research Center Nitrogen Oxide Exploratory Committee edited, “Nitrogen Oxide Total Regulation Manual [New Edition]”, Pollution Research Center, December 25, 2000

  However, in the actual environment, various emission source forms are mixed. For this reason, it is necessary to predict the concentration (hereinafter referred to as environmental concentration) in a state where the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source are combined. Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for predicting the environmental concentration when various forms of emission sources are combined.

  In order to solve the above-described problem, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus according to the present invention calculates the concentration distribution of each emission source form (point source, surface source, and radiation source), and converts the calculated concentration distribution into coordinates of each calculated concentration distribution. To calculate a combined concentration distribution obtained by combining the concentration distributions at common coordinates. Next, a process for smoothing the concentration distribution is performed on the calculated combined concentration distribution and the actually measured value by using an advection / diffusion calculation method to calculate an overall smooth concentration distribution. Furthermore, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus performs an inverse conversion process on the total smooth density distribution to calculate a smooth density distribution in the form of each emission source, and the calculated smooth density distribution in the form of each emission source and a density distribution before the conversion process. As a correction value. For the actual measurement value, the difference between the actual measurement value and the value of the overall smooth density distribution is calculated as a correction value. Then, the environmental concentration prediction device compares whether or not the absolute values of all the correction values are smaller than a preset threshold value, and the absolute value of any correction value is not smaller than the preset threshold value Correcting the concentration distribution before the conversion process and the actual measurement value with the correction value, applying the advection / diffusion calculation method to the corrected value again to calculate the total smooth density distribution, and calculating the correction value. By repeating, the absolute value of all correction values is made smaller than a preset threshold value. Finally, when the absolute value of all the correction values becomes smaller than a preset threshold value, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus sets the total smooth concentration distribution at that time as the environmental concentration distribution in which the environmental concentration is predicted.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, it becomes possible to provide the technique which estimates the environmental concentration at the time of the form of various discharge sources combining.

It is a figure which shows the outline | summary of the flow which calculates environmental concentration distribution. It is a figure which shows the structure and function of the environmental concentration prediction system in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the processing flow of the environmental concentration prediction apparatus in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S1000 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S2000 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S3000 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S4000 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S4002 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S4003 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S4004 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S5000 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the flow of a detailed process of step S6000 in FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of point source discharge source data. It is a figure which shows an example of surface source discharge source data. It is a figure which shows an example of radiation source discharge source data. It is a figure which shows an example of weather data. It is a figure which shows an example of prediction condition data. It is a top view which shows an example of the coordinate for point sources, and a point source density estimated position. It is a top view which shows an example of the coordinate for surface sources, and a surface source density | concentration estimated position. It is a top view which shows an example of the coordinate for radiation sources, and a radiation source density estimated position. It is a top view which shows an example of the coordinate for environmental concentration, and an environmental concentration estimated position.

  Next, the best mode for carrying out the present invention (hereinafter referred to as “embodiment”) will be described in detail with reference to the drawings as appropriate.

(Outline of environmental concentration distribution calculation)
The outline of the flow for calculating the environmental concentration distribution in this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The process for calculating the environmental concentration distribution shown in FIG. 1 is executed in the environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 shown in FIG.

  In step S101, concentration data for each emission source form (point source, plane source, radiation source) and actual measurement data of atmospheric concentration (environmental concentration) when these emission source forms are combined are read. In step S102, a point source concentration distribution is calculated for the point source data read in step S101 using a known analysis solver suitable for point source diffusion prediction, and the calculation result is used as a point source initial concentration distribution. . In step S103, the surface source concentration distribution is calculated for the surface source data read in step S101 using a known analysis solver suitable for the diffusion prediction of the surface source, and the calculation result is used as the surface source initial density distribution. . In step S104, a source concentration distribution is calculated for the source data read in step S101 using a known analysis solver suitable for diffusion prediction of the source, and the calculation result is used as a source initial concentration distribution. . In step S105, the actual measurement data of the atmospheric concentration (environmental concentration) read in step S101 is set as an initial actual measurement value.

  In step S106, conversion processing is performed on the coordinates of the initial density distributions of the forms of the respective emission sources (point source, surface source, and radiation source), and the initial density distributions are synthesized at the common coordinates to calculate the synthesized density distribution. To do. The coordinates here are expressed by, for example, latitude / longitude / height. Details of the conversion process will be described later. In step S107, an advection / diffusion calculation method is applied to the combined concentration distribution calculated in step S106 and the initial actual measurement value set in step S105 to calculate an overall smooth concentration distribution.

  In step S108, an inverse conversion process corresponding to the conversion process in step S106 is performed on the coordinates of the total smooth density distribution to return to the coordinates of the density distribution in the form of each discharge source, and the form of each discharge source ( The smooth density distribution of the point source, surface source, and radiation source is calculated. Details of the inverse transformation process will be described later. In step S109, a correction value is calculated for each predicted position set discretely in the coordinates of the form of each discharge source. For example, the correction value of each emission source form is calculated by subtracting the value at the predicted position of the initial concentration distribution of each emission source form from the value at the predicted position of the smooth density distribution of each emission source form. . The correction value of the actual measurement value is calculated by subtracting the initial actual measurement value from the value at the actual measurement position of the total smooth density distribution.

  In step S110, it is compared whether or not the absolute values of all the correction values are smaller than a preset threshold value. If the absolute value of any correction value is equal to or greater than the threshold (No in step S110), a correction process is executed in step S111. Specifically, a value calculated by adding the correction value at the predicted position to the value at the predicted position of each initial density distribution is set as the value at the predicted position for each initial density. Further, a value calculated by adding the correction value at the actual measurement position of the actual measurement value to the initial actual measurement value is set as the initial actual measurement value. Then, the process returns to steps S102, S103, S104, and S105.

  If the absolute value of all correction values is smaller than the preset threshold value in step S110 (Yes in step S110), the total smooth density distribution calculated in step S107 is set as the environmental density distribution in step S112. The Then, the process ends. Note that the environmental concentration at each predicted position can be calculated (predicted) using the set environmental concentration distribution.

(Environmental concentration prediction system)
Next, the configuration and function of the environmental concentration prediction system that predicts the environmental concentration will be described with reference to FIG.

  The environmental concentration prediction system 1 is a general-purpose arithmetic processing system (computer) or a dedicated arithmetic processing system, and includes an input device 10, an environmental concentration prediction device 20, a data storage device 30, and a display device 40. The input device 10 is a keyboard or a mouse (not shown). The environmental concentration prediction device 20 is configured by a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a main memory (not shown), and executes desired arithmetic processing and controls the input device 10, the data storage device 30, and the display device 40. The data storage device 30 is a storage device and stores data used for arithmetic processing and arithmetic processing results. The display device 40 is a display or the like, and displays an input instruction message, a calculation processing result, and the like.

  The environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 includes a point source concentration prediction unit 21, a surface source concentration prediction unit 22, a source concentration prediction unit 23, a combined concentration distribution calculation unit 24, a smooth concentration distribution calculation unit 25, a correction value calculation unit 26, and a density correction. The calculation unit 27 and the calculation processing unit 28 are provided as functions. The functions of the units 21 to 28 are realized by the CPU developing an application program in the main memory and executing it.

The point source concentration prediction unit 21 predicts (calculates) the point source concentration with respect to the point source data read from the data storage device 30 by using an analysis solver for calculating the point source concentration distribution.
The surface source density prediction unit 22 predicts (calculates) the surface source density of the surface source data read from the data storage device 30 by using an analysis solver for calculating the surface source density distribution.
The source concentration prediction unit 23 predicts (calculates) the source concentration using the analysis solver for the source concentration distribution calculation with respect to the source data read from the data storage device 30.

The composite density distribution calculation unit 24 performs conversion processing on the coordinates of the density distributions of the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source, synthesizes the density distributions at the common coordinates, and calculates the composite density distribution.
The smooth concentration distribution calculation unit 25 calculates an overall smooth concentration distribution, which is a distribution calculated using an advection / diffusion calculation method for the combined concentration distribution and the actual measurement value. In addition, the smooth density distribution calculation unit 25 performs an inverse conversion process corresponding to the conversion process in the combined density distribution calculation unit 24 on the coordinates of the total smooth density distribution to return to the coordinates of the density distribution in the form of each emission source. From the smooth density distribution, the smooth density distribution of each emission source form (point source, surface source, radiation source) is calculated.

The correction value calculation unit 26 calculates a difference (correction value) between the density distribution and the smooth density distribution in the form of the discharge sources of the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source. Further, the correction value calculation unit 26 calculates a difference (correction value) between the actually measured value and the total smooth density distribution.
The density correction calculation unit 27 determines whether or not the absolute value of the correction value is smaller than a preset threshold value. In addition, the density correction calculation unit 27 corrects the density distribution and the actual measurement value in the form of the discharge sources of the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source using the correction value.
The arithmetic processing unit 28 controls the processing flow of the units 21 to 27.

(Processing flow of environmental concentration prediction device)
Next, the processing flow of the environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 will be described with reference to FIG. 3 (see FIG. 2 as appropriate). In step S1000, the point source concentration prediction unit 21 reads the point source data stored in the data storage device 30 based on an instruction from the input device 10, and calculates a point source initial concentration distribution. In step S2000, the surface source density prediction unit 22 reads the surface source data stored in the data storage device 30 based on an instruction from the input device 10, and calculates the surface source initial density distribution. In step S3000, the source concentration prediction unit 23 reads the source data stored in the data storage device 30 based on an instruction from the input device 10, and calculates the source initial concentration distribution. The detailed procedure of steps S1000, S2000, and S3000 will be described later. In step S3500, the arithmetic processing unit 28 of the environmental concentration prediction device 20 reads the actual measurement data when the forms of the emission sources stored in the data storage device 30 are combined based on an instruction from the input device 10, and performs initial processing. Set as measured value.

  In step S4000, the composite density distribution calculation unit 24 performs a conversion process on the coordinates of the point source initial density distribution, the surface source initial density distribution, and the radiation source initial density distribution calculated in steps S1000, S2000, and S3000, thereby generating a point source. The initial density distribution, the surface source initial density distribution, and the radiation source initial density distribution are synthesized on common coordinates to calculate a synthesized density distribution. The detailed procedure of step S4000 will be described later.

  In step S5000, the smooth density distribution calculation unit 25 applies an advection / diffusion calculation method to the combined density distribution and the initial actually measured value to calculate a total smooth density distribution. The detailed procedure of step S5000 will be described later. In step S5500, the smooth density distribution calculation unit 25 performs an inverse conversion process corresponding to the conversion process in the combined density distribution calculation unit 24 on the total smooth density distribution, and each emission source is determined from the total smooth density distribution. The smooth density distribution of the form (point source, surface source, radiation source) is calculated.

  In step S6000, the correction value calculation unit 26 uses the initial density distribution and the smooth density distribution in the form of the discharge sources of the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source, and uses the initial density distribution and smoothing density distribution in the predicted position. A correction value is calculated by subtracting the value of the smooth density distribution from the value of the density distribution. The correction value calculation unit 26 calculates a correction value by subtracting the value of the total smooth density distribution from the initial actual measurement value at the actual measurement position using the initial actual measurement value and the total smooth density distribution. The detailed procedure of step S6000 will be described later.

  In step S7000, the density correction calculation unit 27 determines whether or not the absolute values of all correction values are smaller than a preset threshold value. If the absolute value of one of the correction values is equal to or greater than a preset threshold value (No in step S7000), in step S8000, the density correction calculation unit 27 selects each of the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source. The initial density distribution and the initial measured value of the emission source form are corrected by the respective correction values, and set to new point source initial density distribution, surface source initial density distribution, source initial density distribution, and initial measured value, respectively. . However, in this embodiment, the correction using this correction value is performed only for the correction value that is larger than the threshold value. After step S8000, the process returns to step S4000. If the absolute values of all correction values are smaller than a preset threshold value (Yes in step S7000), the process proceeds to step S9000. In step S9000, the density correction calculation unit 27 sets the total smooth density distribution calculated in step S5000 as the environmental density distribution and stores it in the data storage device 30. Further, the density correction calculation unit 27 may output the environmental density distribution to the display device 40. The arithmetic processing unit 28 controls the processing flow of steps S1000 to S9000 executed by the units 21 to 27.

  Here, the correspondence between each step shown in FIG. 1 and each step shown in FIG. 3 will be described. Steps S101 and S102 correspond to step S1000. Steps S101 and S103 correspond to step S2000. Steps S101 and S104 correspond to step S3000. Steps S101 and S105 correspond to step S3500. Step S106 corresponds to step S4000. Step S107 corresponds to step S5000. Step S108 corresponds to step S5500. S109 corresponds to step S6000. Step S110 corresponds to step S7000. Step S111 corresponds to step S8000. Step S112 corresponds to step S9000.

  Next, a detailed processing flow of steps S1000, S2000, S3000, S4000, S5000, and S6000 will be described. First, the detailed processing flow of step S1000 will be described with reference to FIG. 4, but an example of the point source emission source data shown in FIG. 13 read in steps S1001 to S1003 in advance, the weather data shown in FIG. An example and an example of the prediction condition data shown in FIG. 17 will be described.

  In the point source discharge source data shown in FIG. 13, the point source position coordinates (X, Y, Z), discharge amount, temperature, and discharge speed are associated with each point source number. In the weather data shown in FIG. 16, the coordinates (X, Y, Z) of the weather observation position, the wind direction, the wind speed, the atmospheric stability, and the temperature are associated with each weather number. Further, in the prediction condition data shown in FIG. 17, diffusion calculation methods, exhaust gas rising heights, wind speed height corrections, and the like are stored as conditions items used in the diffusion prediction method.

  First, as shown in FIG. 4, in step S1001, the point source concentration prediction unit 21 uses the point source position, the discharge amount, and the temperature as the point source discharge source data (see FIG. 13) stored in the data storage device 30. Read the discharge speed. In step S <b> 1002, the point source concentration prediction unit 21 reads the wind direction, wind speed, and atmospheric stability as weather data (see FIG. 16) stored in the data storage device 30. In step S1003, the point source concentration prediction unit 21 reads prediction condition data (see FIG. 17) stored in the data storage device 30.

  In step S1004, a point source equidistant grid (coordinates) is created around the first point source position read in step S1001, and a point source density predicted position is set. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 18, an equidistant grid is generated in the point source coordinates, the length of the grid is set to a predetermined value, and the center of the grid is set to the point source concentration predicted position (in FIG. 18). X). However, FIG. 18 shows only a plan view of coordinates. In step S1005, the point source concentration prediction unit 21 applies the analysis solver of the diffusion prediction method used as the prediction method in the point source to the data read in steps S1001 to S1003, and is set in step S1004. The density at the point density prediction position is predicted, and the point source density distribution is calculated. However, the wind speed is constant. Then, the point source concentration prediction unit 21 stores the calculated point source concentration distribution in the data storage device 30.

  Next, the detailed processing flow of step S2000 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S2001, the surface source position, surface smoke source length, discharge amount, temperature, and discharge speed of the surface source discharge source data shown in FIG. 14 are read. In step S2002, the wind direction, wind speed, and atmospheric stability of the weather data shown in FIG. 16 are read. In step S2003, the prediction condition data shown in FIG. 17 is read.

  In step S2004, an equidistant grid (coordinates) for the surface source is created around the first surface source position read in step S2001, and the surface source density predicted position is set. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 19, an equidistant grid is generated in the coordinates for the surface source, the length of the grid is set to a predetermined value, and the center of the grid is set to the surface source concentration predicted position (in FIG. 19). X). However, FIG. 19 shows only a plan view of coordinates. In step S2005, the surface source concentration prediction unit 22 applies the analysis solver of the diffusion prediction method used as the prediction method in the surface source to the data read in steps S2001 to S2003, and is set in step S2004. The density at the predicted surface density prediction position is predicted, and the surface source density distribution is calculated. However, the wind speed is constant. Then, the surface source concentration prediction unit 22 stores the calculated surface source concentration distribution in the data storage device 30.

  Next, the detailed processing flow of step S3000 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S3001, the source position and discharge amount of the source discharge source data shown in FIG. 15 are read. In step S3002, the wind direction, wind speed, and atmospheric stability of the weather data shown in FIG. 16 are read. In step S3003, the prediction condition data shown in FIG. 17 is read.

  In step S3004, prediction points are generated at equal intervals in the direction orthogonal to the radiation source from the radiation source center position for each radiation source read in step S3001, and the radiation source concentration prediction position is set (see FIG. 20; 20 shows only a plan view of coordinates.) In step S3005, the diffusion that is used as a prediction method in the radiation source for the data read by the radiation source concentration prediction unit 23 in steps S3001 to S3003. By applying an analysis solver of the prediction method, the density at the line density prediction position set in step S3004 is predicted, and the source density distribution is calculated. However, the wind speed is constant. Then, the source concentration prediction unit 23 stores the calculated source concentration distribution in the data storage device 30.

  Next, the detailed processing flow of step S4000 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S4001, in order to synthesize the concentration distribution of each emission source form, the coordinates of each emission source form are converted to generate common coordinates (environment concentration coordinates) representing the combined concentration distribution. Read the predicted position of the common coordinates (environmental concentration predicted position). For example, as shown in FIG. 21, the coordinates for the environmental concentration are obtained by converting the coordinates of the point source, the surface source, and the radiation source so that the point source density distribution, the surface source density distribution, and the radiation source density distribution are on the common coordinates. Can be plotted. However, FIG. 21 shows only a plan view of coordinates.

  In step S4002, the point source initial density at the predicted environmental density position is calculated. In step S4003, the surface source initial density at the predicted environmental density position is calculated. In step S4004, the source initial density at the predicted environmental density position is calculated. In step S4005, the point source initial density, the surface source initial density, and the radiation source initial density at the predicted environmental density position are added to calculate a composite density distribution. Then, the calculated composite concentration distribution is stored in the data storage device 30. The conversion process described above is the process of steps S4001 to S4005. A more detailed processing flow of steps S4002, S4003, and S4004 will be described later.

  A detailed processing flow of step S4002 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S4021, the point source initial density and the point source density predicted position are read from the data storage device 30. In step S4022, a position closest to the environmental concentration prediction position is searched from among point source concentration prediction positions in the −X direction (left side of the environmental concentration prediction position) of the environmental concentration prediction position, and a distance from the environmental concentration prediction position is calculated. To do. In step S4023, a position closest to the predicted environmental concentration position is searched for among the point source concentration predicted positions in the + X direction (right side of the predicted environmental concentration position) of the predicted environmental concentration position, and the distance from the predicted environmental concentration position is calculated. . In step S4024, a point source density predicted position in the −Y direction (below the environmental density predicted position) of the environmental density predicted position is searched for a position closest to the environmental density predicted position, and the distance from the environmental density predicted position is determined. calculate. In step S4025, a position closest to the predicted environmental density position is searched for among the point source predicted density positions in the + Y direction (above the predicted environmental density position) of the predicted environmental density position, and the distance from the predicted environmental density position is calculated. .

  In step S4026, the point source concentrations of the four points closest in the ± X direction ± Y direction are weighted and averaged so as to be inversely proportional to the length of each distance, and the point source concentration at the predicted environmental concentration position is calculated. In step S4027, it is determined whether or not there is an environmental concentration predicted position for which the point source density has not been calculated. If there is an uncalculated environmental concentration predicted position (Yes in step S4027), steps S4022 to S4026 are repeated. If there is no uncalculated environmental concentration predicted position (No in step S4027), the process ends.

  A detailed processing flow of step S4003 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S4031, the surface source initial density and the surface source density predicted position are read from the data storage device 30. In step S4032, a position closest to the environmental concentration prediction position is searched from the surface source concentration prediction positions in the −X direction (left side of the environmental concentration prediction position) of the environmental concentration prediction position, and the distance from the environmental concentration prediction position is calculated. To do. In step S4033, a position closest to the environmental concentration prediction position is searched for from among the surface source concentration prediction positions in the + X direction (right side of the environmental concentration prediction position) of the environmental concentration prediction position, and a distance from the environmental concentration prediction position is calculated. . In step S4034, a position closest to the environmental density prediction position is searched from among the surface source density prediction positions in the −Y direction (below the environmental density prediction position) of the environmental density prediction position, and the distance from the environmental density prediction position is determined. calculate. In step S4035, a position closest to the predicted environmental density position is searched from the surface source predicted density positions in the + Y direction (above the predicted environmental density position) of the predicted environmental density position, and the distance from the predicted environmental density position is calculated. .

  In step S4036, the surface source concentrations at the four points closest in the ± X direction ± Y direction are weighted and averaged so as to be inversely proportional to the length of each distance, and the surface source concentration at the environmental concentration predicted position is calculated. In step S4037, it is determined whether or not there is an estimated environmental concentration position whose surface source density has not been calculated. If there is an estimated environmental concentration position that has not been calculated (Yes in step S4037), steps S4032 to S4036 are repeated. If there is no uncalculated environmental concentration predicted position (No in step S4037), the process ends.

  A detailed processing flow of step S4004 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S4041, the source initial density and the source density predicted position are read from the data storage device 30. In step S4042, a position closest to the predicted environmental concentration position is searched from among the predicted source density positions in the −X direction (left side of the predicted environmental concentration position) of the predicted environmental concentration position, and the distance from the predicted environmental concentration position is calculated. To do. In step S4043, a position closest to the predicted environmental concentration position is searched from among the predicted source density positions in the + X direction (right side of the predicted environmental concentration position) of the predicted environmental concentration position, and the distance from the predicted environmental concentration position is calculated. . In step S <b> 4044, a position closest to the environmental concentration prediction position is searched for among the source concentration prediction positions in the −Y direction (below the environmental concentration prediction position) of the environmental concentration prediction position, and the distance from the environmental concentration prediction position is determined. calculate. In step S4045, a position closest to the predicted environmental density position is searched from among the predicted source density positions in the + Y direction (above the predicted environmental density position) of the predicted environmental density position, and the distance from the predicted environmental density position is calculated. .

  In step S4046, the four closest source densities in the ± X direction ± Y direction are weighted and averaged so as to be inversely proportional to the lengths of the respective distances, and the source concentration at the predicted environmental concentration position is calculated. In step S4047, it is determined whether or not there is an environmental concentration prediction position for which the source density has not been calculated. If there is an environmental concentration prediction position that has not yet been calculated (Yes in step S4047), steps S4042 to S4046 are repeated. If there is no uncalculated environmental concentration predicted position (No in step S4047), the process ends.

  Next, the detailed processing flow of step S5000 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S5001, the combined density distribution is read from the data storage device 30 and set to the initial density distribution. In step S5002, meteorological data is read from the data storage device 30, and an analysis solver using an advection calculation method generally known as a prediction method for fluid is applied to the read meteorological data, so The wind speed distribution is calculated. In the wind speed distribution calculated in step S5002, unlike the case where the wind speed is constant used in steps S2002, S3002, and S4002, conditions for changing the wind speed are considered.

  In step S5003, an analysis solver using an advection / diffusion calculation method, which is generally known as a prediction method for fluids, is used for the wind speed distribution, initial concentration distribution and initial measured value calculated in step S5002. The total smooth density distribution is calculated. In step S5004, the difference between the temporary total smooth density distribution and the initial density distribution is calculated. In step S5005, it is determined whether or not the difference calculated in step S5004 is small and a steady state is reached (whether the difference is smaller than a preset threshold). If the steady state has not been reached (No in step S5005), in step S5006, the provisional total smooth density distribution is set to the initial density distribution. Then, the process returns to step S5003. When the steady state is reached (Yes in step S5005), in step S5007, the provisional total smooth density distribution is set to the total smooth density distribution. Then, the total smooth density distribution is stored in the data storage device 30.

  Next, the detailed processing flow of step S6000 will be described with reference to FIG. In step S6001, based on the ratio of the concentration distribution values in the form of each emission source in the combined density distribution at the predicted environmental concentration position calculated in step S4005, the smooth density in the form of each emission source from the total smoothing density distribution. Calculate the distribution.

  In step S6002, the point source smooth density (point source smooth density distribution) at the point source density predicted position is calculated from the point source smooth density distribution. Specifically, the point source concentration predicted positions are averaged by weighting the point source smooth densities of the four environmental concentration predicted positions closest in the ± X direction ± Y direction so as to be inversely proportional to the length of each distance. The point source smooth density (point source smooth density distribution) is calculated. In step S6003, the surface source smooth density (surface source smooth density distribution) at the surface source density predicted position is calculated from the surface source smooth density distribution. Specifically, the surface source density predicted positions are averaged by weighting the surface smoothness densities of the four environmental density predicted positions closest in the ± X direction ± Y direction so as to be inversely proportional to the length of each distance. The surface source smooth density (source smooth density distribution) is calculated. In step S6004, the source smooth density (source smooth density distribution) at the predicted source density position is calculated from the source smooth density distribution. Specifically, the source density density at the four nearest environmental density predicted positions in the ± X direction ± Y direction is weighted so as to be inversely proportional to the length of each distance, and the source density predicted position is averaged. The source smoothing density (source smoothing density distribution) is calculated. Note that the above-described inverse transformation process is the process of steps S6001 to S6004.

  In step S6005, the point source density correction value is calculated by subtracting the point source initial density from the point source smooth density at the point source density predicted position. In step S6006, at the surface source density prediction position, the surface source initial density is subtracted from the surface source smooth density to calculate a correction value of the surface source density. In step S6007, the source density correction value is calculated by subtracting the source initial density from the source smoothness density at the source density prediction position. As for the actual measurement value, in step S6008, the initial actual measurement value is subtracted from the total smooth density at the actual measurement value measurement position to calculate a correction value for the actual measurement value. The calculated correction value is stored in the data storage device 30.

  As described above, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 according to the present embodiment calculates the concentration distribution of each emission source form (point source, surface source, and radiation source), performs the conversion process on the calculated coordinates of each concentration distribution, A combined concentration distribution is calculated by combining the concentration distributions at a common coordinate. Next, a process for smoothing the concentration distribution is performed on the calculated combined concentration distribution and the actually measured value by using an advection / diffusion calculation method to calculate an overall smooth concentration distribution. Furthermore, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 performs inverse conversion processing on the total smoothing density distribution to calculate the smoothing density distribution in the form of each emission source, and the calculated smoothing density distribution in the form of each emission source and the density before the conversion process. The difference from the distribution is calculated as a correction value. For the actual measurement value, the difference between the actual measurement value and the value of the overall smooth density distribution is calculated as a correction value. Then, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 compares whether or not the absolute values of all the correction values are smaller than a preset threshold value, and the absolute value of any correction value is not smaller than the preset threshold value. In this case, the concentration distribution before the conversion processing and the actual measurement value are corrected with the correction value, and the advection / diffusion calculation method is again applied to the corrected value to calculate the total smooth concentration distribution, and the correction value is calculated. Is repeated so that the absolute values of all correction values become smaller than a preset threshold value. Finally, when the absolute value of all correction values becomes smaller than a preset threshold value, the environmental concentration prediction apparatus 20 sets the total smooth concentration distribution at that time as the environmental concentration distribution in which the environmental concentration is predicted. The environmental concentration is predicted.

  According to such a configuration, since the composite concentration distribution is calculated on the common coordinates by performing conversion processing on the coordinates of the concentration distribution of each emission source form, even if various emission source forms are combined, It can respond flexibly. In addition, since the total smooth concentration distribution is calculated by applying the advection / diffusion calculation method to the combined concentration distribution obtained by combining the concentration distributions of the forms of each emission source and the actual measurement value, when only the combined concentration distribution is used Compared to the above, the actual measurement result can be reflected in the total smooth density distribution.

1 Environmental concentration prediction system 10 Input device 20 Environmental concentration prediction device 21 Point source concentration prediction unit (prediction unit)
22 Surface source concentration prediction unit (prediction unit)
23 Source concentration prediction unit (prediction unit)
24 Synthetic density distribution calculation unit 25 Smooth density distribution calculation unit 26 Correction value calculation unit 27 Density correction calculation unit 30 Data storage device (storage unit)
40 Display device

Claims (3)

An environmental concentration prediction device for calculating an environmental concentration when different forms of emission sources of air pollutants are combined,
A storage unit that stores data of each emission source, measured data of environmental concentration when the emission sources are combined, and a preset threshold;
A prediction unit that reads out data of each emission source from the storage unit and calculates a concentration distribution for each form of the emission source using an analysis solver that predicts a concentration distribution for each form of the emission source;
A combined concentration distribution calculation unit that performs conversion processing on the calculated coordinates of the concentration distribution for each form of the emission source and calculates a combined concentration distribution by combining the concentration distributions at the common coordinates;
Using the advection / diffusion calculation method, the calculated combined concentration distribution and the actually measured data read from the storage unit are processed so as to make the combined concentration distribution smooth, and the total smoothed concentration distribution is calculated. A smooth density distribution calculation unit that performs a reverse conversion process on the calculated coordinates of the total smooth density distribution and calculates a smooth density distribution for each form of the discharge source on the coordinates of the form of each discharge source,
A difference a obtained by subtracting the smoothing density distribution of each emission source form from the concentration distribution of each emission source form before the conversion process, and a difference b obtained by subtracting the value of the total smoothing density distribution from the value of the actual measurement data A correction value calculation unit to be calculated;
The difference a and the difference b are compared with the threshold value, and based on the comparison result, using the difference a and the difference b, the value of the concentration distribution in the form of each emission source before the conversion process and the actual measurement A density correction calculator for correcting the data value;
Until the absolute values of all the differences are smaller than the threshold value, the prediction unit, the combined concentration distribution calculation unit, and the smoothed concentration are calculated for the corrected concentration distribution of each emission source and the corrected actual measurement data value. An environmental concentration prediction apparatus comprising: a distribution calculation unit, a correction value calculation unit, and a calculation processing unit that calculates an environmental concentration by repeating processing in the concentration correction calculation unit. An environmental concentration prediction method used in an environmental concentration prediction apparatus for calculating an environmental concentration when different forms of emission sources of air pollutants are combined,
The environmental concentration prediction apparatus
A storage unit that stores data of each emission source, measured data of environmental concentration when the emission sources are combined, and a preset threshold;
A prediction unit that reads out data of each emission source from the storage unit and calculates a concentration distribution for each form of the emission source using an analysis solver that predicts a concentration distribution for each form of the emission source;
A combined concentration distribution calculation unit that performs conversion processing on the calculated coordinates of the concentration distribution for each form of the emission source and calculates a combined concentration distribution by combining the concentration distributions at the common coordinates;
Using the advection / diffusion calculation method, the calculated combined concentration distribution and the actually measured data read from the storage unit are processed so as to make the combined concentration distribution smooth, and the total smoothed concentration distribution is calculated. A smooth density distribution calculation unit that performs a reverse conversion process on the calculated coordinates of the total smooth density distribution and calculates a smooth density distribution for each form of the discharge source on the coordinates of the form of each discharge source,
A difference a obtained by subtracting the smooth density distribution of each emission source form from the concentration distribution of each emission source form before the conversion process, and a difference b obtained by subtracting the value of the total smooth density distribution from the value of the actual measurement data A correction value calculation unit to be calculated;
The difference a and the difference b are compared with the threshold value, and based on the comparison result, using the difference a and the difference b, the value of the concentration distribution in the form of each emission source before the conversion process and the actual measurement A density correction calculator for correcting the data value;
With
Until the absolute values of all the differences are smaller than the threshold value, the prediction unit, the combined concentration distribution calculation unit, and the smoothed concentration are calculated for the corrected concentration distribution of each emission source and the corrected actual measurement data value. An environmental concentration prediction method, wherein environmental concentration is calculated by repeating processing in a distribution calculation unit, the correction value calculation unit, and the concentration correction calculation unit.   A program for causing an environmental concentration prediction apparatus as a computer to execute the environmental concentration prediction method according to claim 2.

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