JP2011053970A - System and method for supporting water storage facility operation and program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system, a method and a program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility in such a manner as to reduce ineffective discharges of water. <P>SOLUTION: An operation planning system 30 obtains an expected amount of inflow for each month, accepts the input of a starting water level, obtains an optimal water level corresponding to a water level at the starting point of a unit period for each month from a water-level inflow amount based target water level chart 351 in an optimal water level database 334, and registers the optimal water level in a planned water level database 334. For each month from the final month to the first month, the planned water level is subtracted so that an ineffective amount S of water discharge calculated by applying the water level at the beginning of the month, the expected amount of inflow for the month, and the water level of the next month to a model is less than a predetermined threshold value. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a water storage facility operation support system, a water storage facility operation support method, and a program.

  In order to efficiently perform hydropower generation, a computer-based operation support system is used. For example, in Patent Document 1, a generator operation plan and a water level plan that are automatically calculated based on the amount of discharged water per day, a past generator operation plan and actual data of the water level plan, etc. are displayed, and corrections are made as necessary. Accepting and preparing a power generation operation plan.

JP 2006-39838 A

However, in the apparatus described in Patent Document 1, although the water level is planned according to the amount of water discharged per day and the actual result in the reservoir, no attention is paid to the invalid discharge amount.
The present invention has been made in view of such a background, and an object thereof is to provide a system, a method, and a program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility so that invalid discharge can be reduced.

  A main invention of the present invention for solving the above problems is a system for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein the inflow amount to the water storage facility in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period and In association with the water level at the start time of the unit period, an optimum water level storage unit that stores the optimum water level at the start time of the next unit period of the unit period, and each unit period included in the operation period A predicted inflow amount acquiring unit that acquires a predicted value of the inflow amount, a start water level input unit that receives an input of a water level at the start time of the first unit period of the operation period, and for each unit period, the unit period A plan water level acquisition unit that acquires the optimal water level corresponding to the water level at the start of the water level from the optimal water level storage unit, and each unit period. Based on the planned water level storage unit for storing the planned water level, the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period, the inflow in the unit period, and the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period A model storage unit for storing a model for calculating an ineffective flow rate that is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation, and from the last unit period of the operation period, the first unit of the operation period For each unit period up to a period, the water level at the start of the unit period, the predicted value of the inflow amount for the unit period, and the ineffective discharge flow rate obtained by applying the read optimum water level to the model And an optimum water level adjustment unit that subtracts the planned water level so that the value falls below a predetermined threshold.

  According to the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, it is possible to adjust the planned water level of the optimized water storage facility so that the ineffective flow rate is reduced. As the amount of ineffective discharge increases, water may increase in the area downstream of the water storage facility. , Can reduce the burden of security operations such as rivers.

  Further, in the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the optimum water level adjustment unit, for each of the unit periods from the last unit period to the first unit period, until the invalid discharge flow is below the threshold, The invalid discharge rate may be calculated by subtracting the water level at the start of the unit period by a predetermined unit amount.

および

により表されることとしてもよい。 The water storage facility operation support system includes the maximum water intake amount that is the maximum amount of water intake that is the amount of water used for hydropower generation in the water storage facility, the minimum water intake amount that is the minimum value of the water intake amount, and the maintenance flow rate. The model stored in the model storage unit has a constant for converting the water level to H, the water storage amount to V, and the storage facility to convert the water storage amount to a water level. , ΔV _t , the maintenance flow rate is S 0, the inflow amount is R, the intake amount is Q, the minimum intake amount is Q _min , The maximum water intake amount is Q _max and the invalid discharge flow rate is S.

and

It is good also as being represented by.

  Further, in the water storage facility operation support system of the present invention, the model storage unit includes a water level of the water storage facility at the start time of the unit period in addition to the first model that is a model for calculating the invalid discharge flow rate. Storing a second model for calculating the amount of electric power generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric generation based on the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period and the inflow amount in the unit period A probability distribution obtaining unit for obtaining a probability distribution for obtaining a distribution of the probability of occurrence of inflow into the water storage facility in each unit period, and a unit period m (m = 1,...) In the operation period. , N), the water level at the start of the unit period m is Hm, the inflow in the unit period is Rm, Hm and Hm + 1 are changed, and the changed Hm and For each combination of Hm + 1, Rm is changed, Hm, Hm + 1, Rm are applied to the model to calculate the amount of power, and a value obtained by multiplying the amount of power by the occurrence probability of Rm obtained from the probability distribution is calculated. Then, the value obtained by multiplying the electric energy by the occurrence probability calculated for each Rm is totaled to calculate an expected value E (Hm, Hm + 1) of the electric energy according to Hm and Hm + 1, and a unit period m For each of (m = 1,..., N), Hm is changed, and for each changed Hm, E for all i of the combinations of Hi (i = m,..., N). Hm + 1 included in the maximum sum of (Hi, Hi + 1) is determined as the optimum water level corresponding to the Hm, and m, Hm, and the determined optimum water level are associated with each other in the optimum water level storage unit. Optimal to register A position determination unit may further include a.

  Another aspect of the present invention is a method for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein a computer has an inflow amount to the water storage facility and a unit during a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period. In association with the water level at the start time of the period, the optimum water level at the start time of the next unit period of the unit period is stored in the memory, and the inflow amount of each unit period included in the operation period is stored. Obtaining a predicted value, receiving an input of a water level at the start of the first unit period of the operation period, and for each unit period, a plan water level that is the optimum water level corresponding to the water level at the start of the unit period From the memory, storing the planned water level for each unit period in the memory, and the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period Based on the inflow amount in the unit period and the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, a model for calculating an ineffective discharge flow discharged without being used for the hydroelectric power generation is used in the memory. For each unit period from the last unit period of the operation period to the first unit period of the operation period, the water level at the start of the unit period, the inflow amount for the unit period It is assumed that the planned water level is subtracted so that the predicted discharge amount and the read optimum water level are applied to the model so that the invalid discharge flow rate is lower than a predetermined threshold value.

  Another aspect of the present invention is a program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation, wherein the computer has an inflow amount to the water storage facility in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period, and Corresponding to the water level at the start time of the unit period, storing the optimum water level as the water level at the start time of the next unit period in the memory, and for each unit period included in the operation period, A step of obtaining a predicted value of the inflow amount, a step of receiving an input of a water level at a start time of the first unit period of the operation period, and for each unit period, corresponding to a water level at a start time of the unit period. Obtaining a plan water level, which is the optimum water level, from the memory; and the plan water level for each unit period in the memo For the hydroelectric power generation based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start time of the unit period, the inflow amount in the unit period, and the water level at the start time of the next unit period of the unit period. Storing in the memory a model for calculating an ineffective flow rate that is discharged without being used, and each unit from the last unit period of the operation period to the first unit period of the operation period For the period, the water level at the start of the unit period, the predicted value of the inflow for the unit period, and the reactive discharge obtained by applying the read optimum water level to the model is below a predetermined threshold. Thus, the step of subtracting the planned water level is executed.

  Other problems and solutions to be disclosed by the present application will be made clear by the embodiments of the present invention and the drawings.

  According to the present invention, ineffective discharge can be reduced.

2 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of an operation support system 30. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of an operation support system 30. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the plan water level database. It is a figure which shows the flow of the registration process of the optimal water level. It is a figure which shows the flow of a registration process of a plan water level. It is a figure which shows the flow of a calculation process of a plan water level. It is a figure which shows the flow of the adjustment process of a plan water level.

== System configuration ==
Hereinafter, a water storage facility operation support system 30 according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described. The operation support system 30 of this embodiment performs support for appropriately operating the water level in a water storage facility such as a dam. In the operation support system 30 of the present embodiment, the water level that maximizes the expected value of the amount of generated power is stored in the database as an optimal water level, and discharge (invalid discharge) that is not used for power generation is minimized during operation. The water level plan is adjusted accordingly. Specifically, the operation support system 30 is configured so that the amount of generated power in a period (hereinafter, referred to as a long-term operation period. In the present embodiment, one year) targeted for a long-term operation plan is maximized. A simulation is performed for the optimum water level for each period (hereinafter referred to as a medium-term operation period. In this embodiment, it is assumed to be one month), and thereafter the optimum water level in the medium-term operation period is obtained. In the following description, the water level in the water storage facility is assumed to be a discrete value for each predetermined unit amount (for example, 1 meter, 5 meters, etc., hereinafter referred to as a unit water level). The water level in the medium-term operation period that maximizes the amount of power generated in the long-term operation period is obtained by Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP).

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the operation support system 30. As shown in the figure, the operation planning system 30 includes a CPU 301, a memory 302, a storage device 303, a communication interface 304, an input device 305, and an output device 306. The storage device 303 stores various data and programs, for example, a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a CD-ROM drive, and the like. The CPU 301 implements various functions by reading the program stored in the storage device 303 into the memory 302 and executing it. The communication interface 304 is an interface for connecting to a communication network. For example, an adapter for connecting to Ethernet (registered trademark), a modem for connecting to a public telephone line network, and a communication device for performing wireless communication Etc. The input device 305 is a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a microphone, or the like that accepts data input. The output device 306 is, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker that outputs data.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the operation planning system 30. As shown in the figure, the operation planning system 30 includes a specification input unit 311, an inflow distribution acquisition unit 312, a medium-term plan unit 313, a predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 315, an invalid discharge adjustment unit 317, a specification storage unit 331, A model storage unit 332, an optimum water level database 333, and a planned water level database 334 are provided. The specification input unit 311, the inflow amount distribution acquisition unit 312, the medium-term plan unit 313, the predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 315, and the invalid discharge adjustment unit 317 are stored in the storage device 303 by the CPU 201 included in the operation planning system 30. This is realized by reading the program stored in the memory 302 and executing it. The specification storage unit 331, the optimum water level database 333, and the planned water level database 334 are realized as storage areas provided by the memory 302 and the storage device 303 provided in the operation planning system 30. The specification storage unit 331, the model storage unit 332, and the optimum water level database 333 may be managed by a database server different from the operation planning system 30, and the operation planning system 30 may access the database server.

  The specification storage unit 331 stores information (hereinafter referred to as specification information) including setting values of various specifications such as water storage facilities, rivers, and power generation facilities.

  The specification input unit 311 receives input of specification information and registers the received specification information in the specification storage unit 331. The specification input unit 311 may receive input of each item of specification information from the input device 305 such as a keyboard and a mouse, for example, or access the specification information by accessing the host computer of the power company, for example. You may make it acquire.

In addition, the specification input unit 311 previously stores the maximum value of the water level (maximum operating water level; hereinafter referred to as H _max . The unit is m) and the minimum value of the water level (minimum) as the specifications relating to the water storage facility. Operational water level; hereinafter referred to as H _min . The unit is m.) The specification information including the highest operational water level received and the specification information including the lowest operational water level are created and specifications are created. Registered in the storage unit 331, accepts an input of a maintenance flow rate (hereinafter referred to as S0. The unit is m ³ / s) as specifications relating to the river, and creates specification information including the received maintenance flow rate Then, the maximum amount of water that can be used for power generation (maximum water intake; hereinafter referred to as Q _max . The unit is m ³ / s. ), The minimum amount of water available for power generation (minimum water intake; Q _min . The unit is m ³ / s.) The height of water discharge after power generation (water discharge level; hereinafter referred to as H _out . The unit is m.), And the loss drop (hereinafter, _(It is expressed as H _los . The unit is m.) The specification information including the maximum water intake received, the specification information including the minimum water intake, the specification information including the discharge level, and the loss head Is created and registered in the specification storage unit 331.

  The optimum water level database 333 stores the water level after the optimum medium-term operation period corresponding to the month, the water level at the start of the month, and the inflow amount in the month.

  The planned water level database 334 stores the optimum water level for each month (hereinafter referred to as the planned water level) during a predetermined planning period. It is assumed that the water level stored in the planned water level database 334 is read from the optimum water level database 333 and is registered before the actual operation of the water storage facility. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the planned water level database 334. As shown in the figure, the water level of each month is registered in association with the start month, the end month, and the start water level. The start month is the first month in a planning period, and the end month is the last month of the planning period. The starting water level is the water level at the beginning of the month of the starting month.

The inflow amount distribution acquisition unit 312 acquires an inflow amount occurrence probability distribution (hereinafter referred to as an inflow amount distribution). In this embodiment, the inflow amount distribution acquisition unit 312 receives an input of the inflow amount distribution from the user. The inflow amount distribution may be obtained as follows, for example. That is, an average value of the actual values of the monthly inflows over the past 30 years (hereinafter referred to as the actual inflows) is stored in the memory 302 and the storage device 303. From the minimum value that the inflow amount R can take (hereinafter referred to as the minimum inflow amount, expressed as _Rmin ) to the maximum value that the inflow amount R can take (hereinafter referred to as the maximum inflow amount, expressed as _Rmax ). For the inflow amount for each predetermined unit amount (hereinafter referred to as unit inflow amount), the actual inflow amount of ± inflow amount / 2 of the inflow amount is counted, and the quotient obtained by dividing the counted number by 30 is the inflow amount. It is calculated as an occurrence probability.

  The medium-term plan unit 313 creates an optimum water level plan for each medium-term operation period. The medium-term plan unit 313 uses the inflow amount distribution and a statistical model stored in the model storage unit 332 to be described later to create an optimal water level plan by probabilistic dynamic programming, and an optimal water level database 333 is registered. The medium-term plan unit 313 registers the planned water level in the planned water level database 334 based on the water level registered in the optimum water level database 333. Details of the processing by the medium-term planning unit 313 will be described later.

  The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 315 acquires a predicted value (predicted inflow amount) of the inflow amount R for each day. The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 315 can accept an input of the predicted inflow amount from, for example, a keyboard or a mouse. The predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 315 may acquire the predicted inflow amount by accessing another computer that predicts the inflow amount, or stores the actual inflow amount in the memory 302 or the storage device 303. For example, the actual inflow of the same day of the previous year may be used as the predicted inflow. Further, the predicted inflow amount may be calculated by a simulation using the actual inflow amount. The model storage unit 332 stores the following models B1 to B10.

モデルＢ２は、最高運用水位Ｈ_ｍａｘに基づいて貯水量の上限（以下、上限貯水量といい、Ｖ_ｍａｘと表記する。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

モデルＢ３は、最低運用水位Ｈ_ｍｉｎに基づいて貯水量の下限（以下、下限貯水量といい、Ｖ_ｍｉｎと表記する。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

Model B1 is for calculating the operational water level H based on the water storage amount V (water level calculation model), and is represented by the following equation. Note that a is a constant specific to the water storage facility.

The model B2 is for calculating the upper limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the upper limit water storage amount and expressed as V _max ) based on the maximum operational water level _Hmax , and is represented by the following equation.

Model B3 is for calculating the lower limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the lower limit water storage amount and expressed as V _min ) based on the minimum operating water level _Hmin , and is represented by the following equation.

モデルＢ５は、流入量Ｒから維持流量Ｓ０および貯水量差ΔＶを引いた水量（Ｒ０）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

Model B4 is based on the amount of stored water from 0:00 to 24:00 on the first day (that is, 0:00 on the next day). , And expressed as ΔV), and is expressed by the following equation, where V _t is the amount of water stored at 0:00 on a certain date t.

The model B5 is for calculating a water amount (R0) obtained by subtracting the maintenance flow rate S0 and the water storage amount difference ΔV from the inflow amount R, and is represented by the following equation.

すなわち、Ｒ０が、最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎ以上であり、かつ、最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘ以下である場合には、Ｒ０が取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合には最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎが取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最大取水量よりも大きい場合には最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘが取水量Ｑとなる。ただし、Ｒ０が最低運転出力Ｑ０_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合は、取水量Ｑは０となる。 The model B6 is for determining the water intake Q based on the minimum water intake Q _min , the maximum water intake Q _max , the minimum operation output Q0 _min and R0 (water intake calculation model), and is expressed by the following equation. The

That, R0 is, and the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} or more, and equal to or less than the maximum intake amount _{Q max} is, R0 is intake amount Q, and the minimum intake if R0 is smaller than the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} The amount Q _min becomes the water intake amount Q, and when R0 is larger than the maximum water intake amount, the maximum water intake amount Q _max becomes the water intake amount Q. However, when R0 is smaller than the minimum operation output Q0 _min , the water intake Q is 0.

モデルＢ８は、１日の終了時点における運用水位、放水位Ｈ_ｏｕｔおよび損失落差Ｈ_ｌｏｓに基づいて、有効落差ｈｎを算出するためのものであり、日付ｔの０時における運用水位をＨ_ｔとし、水位を海抜高さに変換するための所定の定数をｂとして、次式により表される。

モデルＢ９は、取水量Ｑおよび有効落差ｈｎに基づいて１日に発電される発電電力Ｐｎを算出するためのものであり、発電の変換効率に係る係数をｃ、重力加速度をｇとして、次式により表される。

モデルＢ１０は、発電電力Ｐｎに基づいて１日に発電される発電電力量Ｅｎを算出するためのもの（電力量算出モデル）であり、次式により表される。

The model B7 is for calculating the amount of water discharged in the water storage facility on the day (hereinafter referred to as normal discharge flow or invalid discharge flow, expressed as S) based on R0 and the water intake amount Q. Is expressed by the following equation.

Model B8 is for calculating the effective head hn based on the operating water level at the end of the day, the discharge water level H _out and the loss head H _los , and the operating water level at 0:00 on date t is H _t. , Where b is a predetermined constant for converting the water level to the sea level, and is expressed by the following equation.

The model B9 is for calculating the generated power Pn generated on the basis of the water intake amount Q and the effective head hn, where c is a coefficient relating to the conversion efficiency of power generation and g is a gravitational acceleration. Is represented by

Model B10 is for calculating the amount of generated power En generated per day based on the generated power Pn (power amount calculation model), and is represented by the following equation.

== Optimal water level registration process ==
The medium-term plan unit 313 determines a water level that maximizes the expected value of the amount of generated power and registers it in the optimum water level database 333. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the flow of the registration process for the optimum water level. In the example of FIG. 4, the long-term operation period is assumed to be composed of n medium-term operation periods. That is, in this embodiment, n = 12.

The medium-term planning unit 313 sets 0 to ST indicating the stage of calculation processing (S3601). The medium-term plan unit 313 increments ST (S3602), and sets all values that the water level H can take, with F _m being a cumulative value of power generation from n month to m month (hereinafter referred to as cumulative power generation amount). That is, for each value of the unit water level from H _min to H _max and all possible values of the inflow rate R, that is, for each unit inflow rate from R _min to R _max , the stage, the water level H, and The accumulated power generation amount F _{n + 1} (ST, H, R) for n + 1 (13) month corresponding to the inflow amount R is set to 0 (S3603). The medium term planning unit 313 sets n (12) to m (S3604).

The medium-term plan unit 313 sets the minimum water level H _min to the m-month water level H _m (S3605), and sets the minimum inflow rate R _min to the m-month inflow rate R _m (S3606). The inflow amount distribution acquisition unit 312 acquires the conditional probability P (R _{m + 1} | R _m ) when the inflow amount in m month is R _m for all possible values of the inflow amount R _{m + 1 in the} next month m + 1. (S3607). The medium-term plan unit 313 changes the inflow amount R _{m + 1} and adds up the sum of the expected values of the accumulated power generation amount F _{m + 1 up to m + 1 January} ΣP (R _{m + 1} | R _m ) F _{m + 1} (ST, H _{m + 1} , R _{m + 1} ), M month water level H _m , the next month water level H _{m + 1} , and m month generated power amount B (H _m , R _m , H _{m + 1} ) calculated based on m month inflow R _m added value, i.e. _{B (H m, R m,} H m + 1) + ΣP ( hereinafter, referred to as calculated cumulative _{value.) (R m + 1 |} R m) F m + 1 (ST, H m + 1, R m + 1) is the maximum _{H m + 1} And the maximum calculated cumulative value is defined as F _m (ST, H _m , R _m ) (S3608).

Term plan unit 313 adds the unit inflow into the inflow amount _{R m} (S3609), if _{R m} does not exceed the maximum inflow _{R max} (S3610: NO), it repeats the processing from step S3607, exceeds lever (S3610: YES), adds the unit level to _{H m} (S3611). The medium-term plan unit 313 repeats the processing from step S3606 if H _m does not exceed the maximum operational water level H _max (S3612: NO), and decrements m if it exceeds (S3612: YES) (S3613). .

If m is greater than 1 (S3614: NO), medium-term planning unit 313 repeats the processing from step S3605. If m becomes 1 (S3614: YES), the medium-term plan unit 313 determines the total amount of generated power for the year at the stage, that is, the amount of accumulated power generated from n (12) months to January F ₁ (ST, H _{m 1} , R _m ) total value F ₁ (ST), and the total accumulated electric power F ₁ (ST−1, H _m , R _m ) in the previous stage is the total value F ₁ (ST−1). calculated and in _which, whether the absolute value of a value obtained by dividing F 1 (ST) from _F 1 (ST-1) a value obtained by subtracting the _F 1 (ST-1) is below a predetermined threshold, the It is determined whether or not the cumulative amount of power generated by the process has become steady (S3615). When the accumulated power generation amount has become steady (S3615: YES), the medium-term plan unit 313 associates m, H _m , and R _m with all m, H _m , and R _m , and performs steps in the stage. H _{m + 1} determined in S3608 is registered in the optimization database 333 (S3616).

  As described above, the optimum water level combination is registered in the optimum water level database 333.

== Plan water level registration process ==
FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the flow of registration processing of the planned water level by the medium-term planning unit 313.
The medium-term plan unit 313 accepts input of the first month (start month) of the plan period to be ts (S4001), and accepts input of the last month (end month) of the plan period to be te (S4002). In addition, the medium-term plan unit 313 receives an input of the water level at the beginning of the start month and sets it as H _ts (S4003).

Next, the predicted inflow amount acquisition unit 315 acquires a predicted value of the inflow amount R for each month from the start month ts to the end month te (S4004). The medium-term plan unit 313 performs the planned water level registration process shown in FIG. 6 (S4005). In other words, the medium-term plan unit 313 sets m to ts (S4201), reads the next water level m + 1 month stored in the optimum water level database 333, and sets the read water level to Hm _{+ 1} (S4202). Then, m is incremented (S4203). If m comes after te (S4204), the process ends.

The medium-term planning unit 313 sets the variable m to the start month ts (S4006), sets the difference between the start month ts and the end month te to n (S4007), applies H _m and R _m to the various models described above, and R0 And the intake amount Q is calculated, and the calculated R0 and intake amount Q are applied to the model B7 to calculate the invalid discharge flow rate S (S4008). If S is not 0 (S4009: NO), it is shown in FIG. The planned water level is adjusted (S4010).

  The medium-term plan unit 313 sets m to the variable t (S4401), and when t becomes equal to ts (S4402: YES), the process is terminated.

On the other hand, not equal t is a ts (S4402: NO), the water level Ht at t is not less than the minimum operating level _{H min} (S4403: NO), in terms of minus units level from _{H t} (S4404) , H _m and R _m are applied to the various models described above to calculate R0 and water intake Q, and the calculated R0 and water intake Q are applied to model B7 to calculate an invalid discharge S (S4405). If S does not become 0 (S4406: NO), the processing from step S4403 is repeated.

  When the invalid discharge flow rate S becomes 0 (S4406: YES), the medium-term plan unit 313 decrements t (S4407), applies Rt and Ht to the various models described above, R0 and water intake amount. Q is applied to the model B7, the invalid discharge S is calculated to calculate R0 and the water intake Q, and the calculated R0 and the water intake Q are applied to the model B7 to calculate the invalid discharge S (S4408). ). If the invalid discharge flow rate S becomes 0 (S4409: YES), the medium-term plan unit 313 ends the process.

The medium-term plan unit 313 increments m (S4011), and if m does not exceed n (S4012: NO), repeats the processing from step S4008, and if m exceeds n (S4012: YES), H _ts to H _{te + 1} are registered in the planned water level storage unit 235 (S4013).

  According to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the predicted value of the future inflow amount is used to increase the expected value of the power generation amount in the long-term operation period, and the combination of the water levels at the start time and end time of the medium-term operation period Can be requested. Therefore, the operator of the water storage facility should operate the water storage facility at the start of the medium-term operation period with reference to the optimum water level database 333 and using the water level one month later corresponding to the water level at that time as the target water level. As a result, it is possible to increase the amount of generated power for one year. Therefore, even if the experience of the water storage facility operator is shallow, it can be easily adjusted to the optimum water level.

  Further, according to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, it is possible to formulate a water level plan based on objective data as compared with the case where the water level is planned based on the intuition and experience of the water storage facility operator. Further, in the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, by using the stochastic dynamic programming method, even when the predicted value of the future inflow is obtained as a probability distribution, the expected value of the generated power in the water storage facility is obtained. The optimal water level plan to be increased can be easily derived.

  Further, according to the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, it is possible to adjust the planned water level of the optimized water storage facility so that the invalid discharge becomes the minimum (in this embodiment, “0”). If the amount of ineffective discharge increases, water may increase in the downstream area of the water storage facility. Therefore, by adjusting the planned water level so that the ineffective discharge flow is reduced, safety in the downstream area can be ensured and safety can be ensured. Increase in business and the like can be suppressed.

  Further, in the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the water level is optimized in advance so that the expected value of the generated power is maximized, and the water storage is performed after adjusting so as to minimize the invalid discharge during operation. The facility can be operated. It is known that the prediction value such as the inflow amount becomes higher as the prediction date is closer, and the safety in the downstream area can be surely ensured by adjusting at the time of operation. On the other hand, by performing the optimization of the water level in advance, it is possible to plan the water level only by reading the optimized water level at the time of operation.

  In the present embodiment, the operation planning system 30 is realized by a single computer, but may be realized by a plurality of computers.

  In the operation planning system 30 of the present embodiment, the long-term operation period is one year and the medium-term operation period is one month. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and an arbitrary length can be set. For example, the long-term operation period may be six months or three months, and the medium-term operation period may be three months, seasonal (10 days), or one week.

  Although the present embodiment has been described above, the above embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

30 Operation Planning System 301 CPU
302 Memory 303 Storage Device 304 Communication Interface 305 Input Device 306 Output Device 311 Specification Input Unit 312 Inflow Distribution Acquisition Unit 313 Medium-term Planning Unit 315 Predicted Inflow Acquisition Unit 331 Specification Storage Unit 332 Model Storage Unit 333 Optimal Water Level Database 334 Planning Water level database

Claims (6)

A system for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydroelectric power generation,
The optimum water level at the start time of the next unit period after the unit period is stored in association with the inflow amount to the water storage facility in the unit period constituting the predetermined operation period and the water level at the start time of the unit period. An optimal water level storage unit,
For each unit period included in the operation period, a predicted inflow amount acquisition unit that acquires a predicted value of the inflow amount;
A start water level input unit for receiving an input of a water level at the start time of the first unit period of the operation period;
For each unit period, a planned water level acquisition unit that acquires a planned water level that is the optimal water level corresponding to the water level at the start time of the unit period from the optimal water level storage unit;
A planned water level storage unit for storing the planned water level for each unit period;
Based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period, the inflow in the unit period, and the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, the water is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation. A model storage unit for storing a model for calculating an ineffective discharge flow rate;
For each unit period from the last unit period of the operation period to the first unit period of the operation period, a water level at the start of the unit period, a predicted value of the inflow amount for the unit period, and An optimal water level adjustment unit that subtracts the planned water level so that the ineffective discharge obtained by applying the read optimal water level to the model is below a predetermined threshold;
A water storage facility operation support system characterized by comprising: The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 1,
The optimum water level adjustment unit is configured to determine a water level at a start time of the unit period for each unit period from the last unit period to the first unit period until the invalid discharge rate is lower than the threshold. Subtracting each step to calculate the invalid discharge flow rate,
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 1,
Various items for storing the specifications of the water storage facility, including the maximum water intake amount that is the maximum amount of water intake that is the amount of water used for hydropower generation in the water storage facility, the minimum water intake amount that is the minimum value of the water intake amount, and the maintenance flow rate. With a former storage
The model stored in the model storage unit includes a water level H, a water storage amount V, a constant for converting the water storage amount to a water level in the water storage facility, and a water storage that increases between time t and time t + 1. ΔV _t , the maintenance flow rate is S 0, the inflow amount is R, the intake amount is Q, the minimum intake amount is Q _min , the maximum intake amount is Q _max , and the invalid discharge amount is S is the formula

and

Represented by
Water storage facility operation support system characterized by The water storage facility operation support system according to claim 1,
In addition to the first model, which is a model for calculating the ineffective flow rate, the model storage unit includes a water level of the water storage facility at the start time of the unit period, a start time of the unit period next to the unit period A second model for calculating the amount of electric power generated in the unit period by the hydroelectric power generation based on the water level in the unit period and the inflow amount in the unit period,
A probability distribution obtaining unit for obtaining a probability distribution for obtaining a distribution of occurrence probability of the inflow amount to the water storage facility in each unit period;
For each of the unit periods m (m = 1,..., N) in the operation period, the water level at the start of the unit period m is Hm, the inflow in the unit period is Rm, and Hm and Hm + 1 are changed and changed. For each combination of Hm and Hm + 1, Rm is changed, Hm, Hm + 1, and Rm are applied to the model to calculate the electric energy, and the electric energy is multiplied by the occurrence probability of Rm obtained from the probability distribution. The expected value F (Hm, Hm + 1) of the electric energy corresponding to Hm and Hm + 1 is calculated by summing the values obtained by multiplying the electric energy by the occurrence probability calculated for each Rm. For each unit period m (m = 1,..., N), Hm is changed, and for each changed Hm, all combinations of Hi (i = m,..., N) are selected. i Hm + 1 included in the largest sum of F (Hi, Hi + 1) is determined as the optimum water level corresponding to the Hm, and the optimum water level is associated with m, Hm, and the determined optimum water level. An optimum water level determination unit to be registered in the storage unit;
A water storage facility operation support system characterized by comprising: A method for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation,
Computer
A memory that is optimal as a water level at the start time of the next unit period after the unit period is associated with the inflow amount to the water storage facility in the unit period constituting the predetermined operation period and the water level at the start time of the unit period. Remember
For each unit period included in the operation period, obtain a predicted value of the inflow amount,
Accepts the input of the water level at the start of the unit period at the beginning of the operation period;
For each unit period, obtain the planned water level that is the optimal water level corresponding to the water level at the start of the unit period from the memory,
Storing the planned water level for each unit period in the memory;
Based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period, the inflow in the unit period, and the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, the water is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation. A model for calculating an invalid discharge flow is stored in the memory;
For each unit period from the last unit period of the operation period to the first unit period of the operation period, a water level at the start of the unit period, a predicted value of the inflow amount for the unit period, and Subtracting the planned water level so that the ineffective discharge obtained by applying the read optimum water level to the model is below a predetermined threshold;
Water storage facility operation support method characterized by A program for supporting the operation of a water storage facility for hydropower generation,
On the computer,
A memory that is optimal as a water level at the start time of the next unit period after the unit period is associated with the inflow amount to the water storage facility in the unit period constituting the predetermined operation period and the water level at the start time of the unit period. The step of storing in
Obtaining a predicted value of the inflow amount for each unit period included in the operation period;
Receiving a water level input at the start of the unit period at the beginning of the operation period;
For each unit period, obtaining a planned water level that is the optimal water level corresponding to the water level at the start of the unit period from the memory;
Storing the planned water level for each unit period in the memory;
Based on the water level of the water storage facility at the start of the unit period, the inflow in the unit period, and the water level at the start of the unit period next to the unit period, the water is discharged without being used for the hydropower generation. Storing in the memory a model for calculating an invalid discharge flow rate;
For each unit period from the last unit period of the operation period to the first unit period of the operation period, a water level at the start of the unit period, a predicted value of the inflow amount for the unit period, and Subtracting the planned water level so that the reactive discharge obtained by applying the read optimum water level to the model falls below a predetermined threshold;
A program for running

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