JP4954355B1 - Water level plan evaluation support device, water level plan evaluation support method and program - Google Patents

Abstract

[PROBLEMS] To be able to support evaluation of a water level plan.
A water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30 includes an optimum water level database 333 for storing a target water level table 351 for determining a planned water level in each season of the year, and an actual water level acquisition for acquiring an actual water level. Unit 313, a water level plan creation unit 314 that creates a water level plan based on the initial actual water level and the target water level table 351 according to the water level inflow, a pocket amount adjustment unit 316 that calculates the amount of water intake in each season, A water level plan correction unit 317 is provided that changes the water intake amount so as to approximate the end-of-period actual water level and corrects the planned water level according to the changed water intake amount.
[Selection] Figure 14

Description

  The present invention relates to a water level plan evaluation support apparatus, a water level plan evaluation support method, and a program.

  In the operation of water storage facilities such as dams at hydroelectric power stations, the level of the dam water level should be maintained throughout the year from the relationship between the amount of inflow flowing into the dam and the amount of water used by the generator (water intake). The amount of stored water is adjusted according to the planned water level. The planned water level is set to an empirically safe value, and optimization considering the amount of generated power is not performed. On the other hand, as shown in Patent Document 1, a water level table was created by probabilistic dynamic programming so as to maximize the amount of generated power and the amount of power sold, and created based on this water level table It is proposed to operate according to the optimal water level plan.

JP 2010-165346 A

  When evaluating the optimum water level plan using the water level table, it is necessary to compare the power generation amount in the optimum water level plan with the actual operation plan and the conventional water level plan. However, the conventional water level plan and the water level plan using the water level table often have different water levels at the end of the evaluation period, in which case the amount of water used for power generation will be different, and a simple comparison is not possible. Not valid.

  This invention is made in view of such a background, and it aims at providing the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus, the water level plan evaluation assistance method, and program which can support evaluation of a water level plan.

  A main invention of the present invention for solving the above problems is an apparatus for supporting evaluation of a water level plan in a water storage facility, and a water level for determining a planned water level in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period. A water level information storage unit for storing information, an actual water level acquisition unit for acquiring the initial actual water level and the final actual water level that are actual values of the water level in the first and last unit periods of the past, and the initial actual results Based on the water level and the water level information, a water level plan creation unit that creates a water level plan that is a combination of the planned water levels, and for each of the unit periods, the planned water level in the unit period and the unit next to the unit period A water intake amount calculation unit for calculating a water intake amount that is a water amount to be used for hydropower generation based on the planned water level in a period, and a maximum amount in the water level plan. A planned water level correction unit that changes the water intake amount so that the planned water level at the end of the unit period and the actual water level at the end of the period approximate to each other, and corrects the planned water level according to the changed water intake It shall be provided with.

  If the actual water level and the planned water level are the same at the beginning of the period but differ at the end of the period, the amount of water actually used for power generation differs from the amount of water used for power generation according to the water level plan. Cannot be compared. On the other hand, according to the water level plan evaluation support apparatus of the present invention, the planned water level can be corrected so that the final water level of the planned water level matches the final water level of the actual water level. Therefore, the actual water level and the end-of-term water level can be compared.

In the water level plan evaluation support device of the present invention, the actual water level acquisition unit acquires the actual value of the water level in each of the unit periods in the past operation period, and first based on the actual value of the water level. A power generation output unit that calculates a second power generation amount based on the corrected planned water level and outputs the first and second power generation amounts. It may be.
In this case, it is possible to easily determine the superiority of the planned water level by comparing the generated power amount based on the actual water level and the generated power amount based on the planned water level.

  In the water level plan evaluation support apparatus of the present invention, the water level information is a table associating the water level at the beginning of the unit period and the inflow amount into the water storage facility during the unit period with the water level at the end of the unit period. It is good also as being.

  The water level plan evaluation support device of the present invention further includes a water level plan creation unit that converts each of the planned water levels into a stored water amount for each unit period, and the planned water level correction unit is configured to start from the last unit period. For each of the unit periods toward the first unit period, a predetermined step value is added to the water intake amount of the unit period while the end-term planned water level is equal to or higher than the end-of-period actual water level. The planned water level of all the unit periods up to the unit period of time is reduced according to the step value, and the step value is subtracted from the intake amount of the unit period while the planned water level at the end of the period is less than the actual water level at the end of the period. And you may make it increase the said plan water level of all the said unit periods from the said unit period to the said last unit period according to the said step value.

In addition, the water level plan evaluation support device of the present invention stores, for each unit period, a pocket amount storage unit that stores a pocket amount that is a difference between an invalid discharge amount in the unit period and a maximum value of the water storage amount in the water storage facility. And a pocket amount adjusting unit that adjusts the water intake amount so that the planned water level of the unit period is equal to or less than a water level corresponding to a value obtained by subtracting the pocket amount from the maximum value. Also good.
In general, when an actual reservoir is operated, a water level operation is often performed so as to suppress an invalid discharge as much as possible. Therefore, the planned water level can be brought closer to the actual operation performed based on the water level plan by adjusting the planned water level so as to suppress the invalid discharge flow as described above. This makes it possible to evaluate the practical usefulness when the water level plan is actually used.

  Another aspect of the present invention is a method for supporting evaluation of a water level plan in a water storage facility, wherein a computer determines water level information for determining a planned water level that is a water level in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period. And the initial actual water level and the final actual water level, which are actual values of the water level in the first and last unit periods of the past operation period, are acquired, and the plan is based on the initial actual water level and the water level information. A water level plan that is a combination of water levels is created, and for each of the unit periods, the amount of water to be used for hydropower generation based on the planned water level in the unit period and the planned water level in the unit period next to the unit period. Calculate a certain amount of water intake and approximate the planned water level at the end of the period and the actual water level at the end of the period as the planned water level of the last unit period in the water level plan. Changing the intake amount so that, and to correct the planned water level in accordance with the intake amount obtained by said change.

  Another aspect of the present invention is a program for supporting evaluation of a water level plan in a water storage facility for determining a plan water level that is a water level in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period in a computer. A step of storing water level information; a step of acquiring an initial actual water level and an end actual water level which are actual values of the water level in the first and last unit periods of the past operation period; and the initial initial actual water level and the water level information Based on the plan water level plan that is a combination of the planned water levels, and for each of the unit periods, based on the planned water level in the unit period and the planned water level in the unit period next to the unit period Calculating a water intake amount that is used for hydropower generation, and the last unit period in the water level plan Changing the water intake amount so that the planned water level at the end of the period and the actual water level at the end of the period approximate to each other, and correcting the planned water level according to the changed water intake; To do.

  Other problems and solutions to be disclosed by the present application will be made clear by the embodiments of the present invention and the drawings.

  According to the present invention, evaluation of a water level plan can be supported.

It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus. It is a figure which shows the software structure of the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the item memory | storage part. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the results database 335. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the optimal water level database 333. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the plan water level database. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the pocket quantity database 336. FIG. It is a figure explaining the flow of the process performed by the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus. It is a figure which shows the flow of the acquisition process of a specification. It is a figure which shows the flow of the creation process of a water level plan. It is a figure which shows the flow of a calculation process of an invalid discharge flow rate. It is a figure which shows the flow of the adjustment process of the plan water level according to an invalid discharge flow rate. It is a figure which shows the flow of the adjustment process of the plan water level according to pocket amount. It is a figure which shows the flow of the correction process of a water level plan. It is a figure which shows the flow of the correction process which increases a water intake amount. It is a figure which shows the flow of the correction process which decreases water intake. It is a figure which shows the flow of the output process of electric power generation amount. It is a figure which shows the flow of the correction | amendment process which increases the water intake in the case of determining a step value dynamically. It is a figure which shows the flow of the correction | amendment process which reduces the water intake in the case of determining a step value dynamically.

  Hereinafter, the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus 30 which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention is demonstrated. The water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30 of this embodiment supports evaluation of a water level plan (hereinafter simply referred to as a water level plan) in a water storage facility such as a dam used for hydroelectric power generation.

  The water level plan is created based on the water level table. The water level table shows the water level at the beginning of each season (unit period) during the one-year evaluation period (operation period), the amount of water flowing into the water storage facility at that season, and the last time of that season (that is, the next season). It is the table | surface which matches the water level in the first time point of). The water level table can be created so that the amount of generated power and the amount of power sold are maximized by probabilistic dynamic programming as described in, for example, Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2010-165346. The water level table can also be created by an experienced engineer.

  The evaluation of the water level plan created based on the water level table was conducted according to the amount of power generated by the actually operated water level (hereinafter referred to as the actual water level) and the water level plan. This is performed by comparing the calculated power generation amount in the case (hereinafter referred to as the planned power generation amount). In addition, you may make it compare not an electric power generation amount but a power sale price.

  Here, the water level of the water level plan for a certain evaluation period (hereinafter referred to as the planned water level) is changed from the initial planned water level (hereinafter referred to as the initial planned water level) to the initial actual water level (hereinafter referred to as the initial actual water level). Even if they are adjusted, the planned water level at the end of the term (hereinafter referred to as the planned water level at the end of the term) may not match the actual water level at the end of the term (hereinafter referred to as the actual water level at the end of the term). If the actual water level at the end of the fiscal year is higher than the planned water level at the end of the fiscal year, the amount of water used for actual power generation by operating the actual water level is less than the amount of water expected to be used for power generation in the water level plan. Will increase that much. Conversely, if the actual water level is lower than the planned water level, the amount of water actually used is greater than the amount of water used in the water level plan, and the amount of power generated by the water level plan is reduced accordingly. Therefore, there will naturally be a difference in the amount of generated power by the difference in the water level at the end of this period, and if the actual amount of generated power is simply compared with the plan, the validity of the evaluation is lacking.

  Therefore, in the water level plan evaluation support system of the present embodiment, by correcting the water level plan so that the planned water level at the end of the water level plan is as close as possible to the actual water level, the amount of power generated by the water level plan and the actual water level during the evaluation period are (Hereinafter, the combination of the actual water levels is referred to as the operation results.) The amount of power generated by the operation is compared so that the water level plan can be evaluated.

== Hardware ==
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of the water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30. The water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30 includes a CPU 301, a memory 302, a storage device 303, a communication interface 304, an input device 305, and an output device 306. The storage device 303 stores various data and programs, for example, a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a CD-ROM drive, and the like. The CPU 301 implements various functions by reading the program stored in the storage device 303 into the memory 302 and executing it. The communication interface 304 is an interface for connecting to a communication network. For example, an adapter for connecting to Ethernet (registered trademark), a modem for connecting to a public telephone line network, and a communication device for performing wireless communication Etc. The input device 305 is a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a microphone, or the like that accepts data input. The output device 306 is, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker that outputs data.

== Software ==
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30. The water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30 includes a specification acquisition unit 311, an inflow amount acquisition unit 312, an actual water level acquisition unit 313, a water level plan creation unit 314, an invalid discharge adjustment unit 315, a pocket amount adjustment unit 316, a water level plan correction unit 317, The power generation amount output unit 318, the specification storage unit 331, the model storage unit 332, the optimum water level database 333, the planned water level database 334, the result database 335, and the pocket amount database 336 are provided. The specification acquisition unit 311, the inflow amount acquisition unit 312, the actual water level acquisition unit 313, the water level plan creation unit 314, the invalid discharge adjustment unit 315, the pocket amount adjustment unit 316, the water level plan correction unit 317, and the generated power amount output unit 318. Is realized by the CPU 301 included in the water level plan evaluation support device 30 reading out the program stored in the storage device 303 to the memory 302 and executing it. In addition, the specification storage unit 331, the optimum water level database 333, the planned water level database 334, the performance database 335, and the pocket amount database 336 are realized as storage areas provided by the memory 302 and the storage device 303 provided in the water level plan evaluation support device 30. The The specification storage unit 331, the model storage unit 332, the optimum water level database 333, the planned water level database 334, the result database 335, and the pocket amount database 336 are managed by a database server different from the water level plan evaluation support device 30, and the water level plan The evaluation support apparatus 30 may access the database server.

  The specification storage unit 331 stores information (hereinafter referred to as specification information) including setting values of various specifications such as water storage facilities, rivers, and power generation facilities. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the specification storage unit 331.

  The specification acquisition unit 311 receives input of specification information and registers the received specification information in the specification storage unit 331. The specification acquisition unit 311 may receive input of each item of specification information from the input device 205 such as a keyboard or a mouse, for example, or access the specification information by accessing a host computer of the power company, for example. You may make it acquire.

In addition, the specification acquisition part 311 prescribes | regulates beforehand the maximum value of the water level which can be operated in a water storage facility (maximum operation water level; hereinafter, _Hmax . The unit is m. As a specification regarding a water storage facility, a unit is m. Can be set), and the minimum value of the water level (minimum operating water level; hereinafter referred to as H _min . The unit is m. Can be set for each season.) The specification information including the water level and the specification information including the minimum operational water level are created and registered in the specification storage unit 331, and the maintenance flow rate (hereinafter referred to as S0. The unit is m) as the specifications relating to the river. ³ / s.), The specification information including the received maintenance flow rate is created and registered in the specification storage unit 331, and the maximum value that can be given to the generator as the specifications relating to the power generation equipment of water (maximum water intake; _{hereinafter, Q ma} .. Referred to as the unit is m ^{3 /} s and can be set for each season), a minimum amount of water to be supplied to the generator (the minimum intake amount;.. Hereinafter referred to as Q _min units m ³ / s, which can be set for each season), the height of water discharged after power generation (water discharge level; hereinafter referred to as _Hout , the unit is m), and the loss head (hereinafter referred to as H _los ). The unit is m.), The specification information including the maximum water intake, the specification information including the minimum water intake, the specification information including the discharge level, and the loss The specification information including the head is created and registered in the specification storage unit 331, and the calculation start year (hereinafter referred to as t0) and the calculation end year (hereinafter, Nensu) are used as the specification for calculation. And the number of unit periods (seasonal) included in one year (number of periods; below) Kikan.), The number of days (period days) of each unit period (season), and a coefficient used for adjusting the water intake amount described later (water intake adjustment coefficient; hereinafter referred to as “a”) are accepted. , Specification information including accepted calculation start year, specification information including calculation end year, specification information including number of periods, specification information including period days, and specification information including intake amount adjustment coefficient Are created and registered in the specification storage unit 331.

モデルＢ２は、最高運用水位Ｈ_ｍａｘに基づいて貯水量の上限（以下、上限貯水量といい、Ｖ_ｍａｘと表記する。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

モデルＢ３は、最低運用水位Ｈ_ｍｉｎに基づいて貯水量の下限（以下、下限貯水量といい、Ｖ_ｍｉｎと表記する。）を算出するためのものであり、次式により表される。

モデルＢ４は、１日の０時から２４時（すなわち次の日の０時）の貯水量に基づいて、単位期間の開始時点から終了時点までの貯水量の差（以下、貯水量差といい、ΔＶと表記する。）を算出するものであり、ある日付ｔの０時における貯水量をＶ_ｔとして、次式により表される。

The model storage unit 332 stores the following models B1 to B10.
Model B1 is for calculating the operational water level H based on the water storage amount V (water level calculation model), and is represented by the following equation. Note that a is a constant specific to the water storage facility.

The model B2 is for calculating the upper limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the upper limit water storage amount and expressed as V _max ) based on the maximum operational water level _Hmax , and is represented by the following equation.

Model B3 is for calculating the lower limit of the water storage amount (hereinafter referred to as the lower limit water storage amount and expressed as V _min ) based on the minimum operating water level _Hmin , and is represented by the following equation.

Model B4 is based on the amount of stored water from 0:00 to 24:00 on the first day (that is, 0:00 on the next day). , And expressed as ΔV), and is expressed by the following equation, where V _t is the amount of water stored at 0:00 on a certain date t.

モデルＢ６は、最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎ、最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘ、最低運転出力Ｑ０_ｍｉｎおよびＲ０に基づいて、取水量Ｑを決定するためのもの（取水量算出モデル）であり、次式により表される。

すなわち、Ｒ０が、最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎ以上であり、かつ、最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘ以下である場合には、Ｒ０が取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合には最小取水量Ｑ_ｍｉｎが取水量Ｑとなり、Ｒ０が最大取水量よりも大きい場合には最大取水量Ｑ_ｍａｘが取水量Ｑとなる。ただし、Ｒ０が最低運転出力Ｑ０_ｍｉｎよりも小さい場合は、取水量Ｑは０となる。The model B5 is for calculating a water amount (R0) obtained by subtracting the maintenance flow rate S0 and the water storage amount difference ΔV from the inflow amount R, and is represented by the following equation.

The model B6 is for determining the water intake Q based on the minimum water intake Q _min , the maximum water intake Q _max , the minimum operation output Q0 _min and R0 (water intake calculation model), and is expressed by the following equation. The

That, R0 is, and the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} or more, and equal to or less than the maximum intake amount _{Q max} is, R0 is intake amount Q, and the minimum intake if R0 is smaller than the minimum intake quantity _{Q min} The amount Q _min becomes the water intake amount Q, and when R0 is larger than the maximum water intake amount, the maximum water intake amount Q _max becomes the water intake amount Q. However, when R0 is smaller than the minimum operation output Q0 _min , the water intake Q is 0.

モデルＢ８は、１日の終了時点における運用水位、放水位Ｈ_ｏｕｔおよび損失落差Ｈ_ｌｏｓに基づいて、有効落差ｈｎを算出するためのものであり、日付ｔの０時における運用水位をＨ_ｔとし、水位を海抜高さに変換するための所定の定数をｂとして、次式により表される。

モデルＢ９は、取水量Ｑおよび有効落差ｈｎに基づいて１時間に発電される発電電力Ｐｎを算出するためのものであり、発電の変換効率に係る係数をｃ、重力加速度をｇとして、次式により表される。

モデルＢ１０は、発電電力Ｐｎに基づいて１日に発電される発電電力量Ｅｎを算出するためのもの（電力量算出モデル）であり、次式により表される。

The model B7 is for calculating the amount of water discharged in the water storage facility on the day (hereinafter referred to as normal discharge flow or invalid discharge flow, expressed as S) based on R0 and the water intake amount Q. Is expressed by the following equation.

Model B8 is for calculating the effective head hn based on the operating water level at the end of the day, the discharge water level H _out and the loss head H _los , and the operating water level at 0:00 on date t is H _t. , Where b is a predetermined constant for converting the water level to the sea level, and is expressed by the following equation.

The model B9 is for calculating the generated power Pn generated in one hour based on the water intake Q and the effective head hn, where c is a coefficient relating to conversion efficiency of power generation and g is a gravitational acceleration. It is represented by

Model B10 is for calculating the amount of generated power En generated per day based on the generated power Pn (power amount calculation model), and is represented by the following equation.

  The actual result database 335 stores the actual water level and the actual value of the generated electric energy (hereinafter referred to as “actual generated electric energy”). FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the result database 335. As shown in the figure, the result database 335 stores the actual water level and the actual generated power amount in association with each season. Note that another computer different from the water level plan evaluation support device 30 may manage the result database 335 and acquire the actual water level and the actual power generation amount from the other computer (actual water level acquisition unit).

  The actual water level acquisition unit 313 acquires the actual water level and registers the acquired actual water level in the actual database 335. The actual water level acquisition unit 313 may receive, for example, an input of the actual water level from the user, or may access another computer that manages the actual water level and acquire the actual water level.

The optimum water level database 333 (corresponding to the water level information storage unit of the present invention) corresponds to the season, the water level at the start of the season, and the inflow amount (m ³ / day) for one day in the season. Remember the optimal water level for the next season. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the optimum water level database 333. As shown in the figure, in the optimum water level database 333, the water level inflow in which the optimum water level H _{m + 1} in the next season is set for each season _m in association with the water level H _m and the inflow amount R _m in the season. A target water level table 351 by quantity is stored. As will be described later, by reading out the optimum water level H _{m + 1} of the next season m + 1 corresponding to the season m, the water level H _m at the start of the season m, and the inflow amount R _m from the optimum water level database 333, It becomes possible to acquire the target water level at the final time point. Therefore, a water level plan can be created by determining the water level H ₁ at the beginning of the evaluation period and reading the water level H _m at each seasonal m in the evaluation period from the optimum water level database 333.

  The inflow amount acquisition unit 312 acquires the inflow amount R for each season. The inflow amount acquisition unit 312 can accept input of the inflow amount from, for example, a keyboard or a mouse. Further, the inflow rate acquisition unit 312 may access, for example, a computer that manages the actual value of the inflow rate, or another computer that performs prediction of the inflow rate, and acquires the actual value or predicted value of the inflow rate. Good. The inflow amount acquisition unit 312 stores the actual inflow amount in the memory 302 or the storage device 303, and for the future season, for example, the actual inflow amount such as the same day of the previous year is read as the predicted inflow amount. Also good. Further, the predicted inflow amount may be calculated by a simulation using the actual inflow amount.

The water level plan creation unit 314 creates a water level plan according to the initial plan water level. In the present embodiment, it is assumed that the initial planned water level coincides with the initial actual water level. The water level plan creation unit 314 may accept an input of the initial planned water level from the user, or may read the initial initial actual water level from the actual database 335 and set it as the initial initial planned water level. From the optimum water level database 333, the water level plan creation unit 314 sets the initial planned water level as the first seasonal m water level H _m and corresponds to the water level H _m and the inflow amount R _m of the seasonal m acquired by the inflow amount acquisition unit 312. The water level plan is created by reading out the water level H _{m + 1} of the season m + 1 as the planned water level of the season m + 1.

  The planned water level database 334 stores the water level plan. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the planned water level database 334. As shown in the figure, the water level at each season is registered in association with the start season, end season, and start water level. The start season is the first season of the evaluation period, and the end season is the last season of the evaluation period. The starting water level is the initial planned water level.

  The invalid discharge adjustment unit 315 adjusts the planned water level so as to reduce the invalid discharge flow. The ineffective discharge adjustment unit 315 calculates the ineffective discharge flow in each season in the water level plan, and adjusts the planned water level so that the stored water volume is increased within the range of the maximum stored water volume when the inactive discharge volume is generated. To do. The adjustment process by the invalid discharge adjustment unit 315 may be omitted.

The pocket amount database 336 stores a difference (hereinafter referred to as a pocket amount) between the upper limit water storage amount V _{max, m} and the invalid discharge amount S in the season m. In the water level plan, by setting the planned water level to a value equal to or less than the value obtained by subtracting the water level for the pocket amount from the maximum operating water level _Hmax , it becomes possible to suppress the invalid discharge flow rate. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the pocket amount database 336. As shown in the figure, the pocket amount database 336 stores the pocket amount in association with each season.

  The pocket amount adjusting unit 316 (corresponding to the pocket amount adjusting unit and the water intake amount calculating unit of the present invention) adjusts the planned water level according to the pocket amount. The pocket amount adjustment unit 316 adjusts the planned water level so as to reduce the water storage amount by increasing the water intake amount within the range of the maximum water intake amount when the water storage amount exceeds the value obtained by subtracting the pocket amount from the maximum water storage amount. To do. Note that the adjustment processing by the pocket amount adjustment unit 316 can also be omitted.

  The water level plan correction unit 317 (corresponding to the planned water correction unit of the present invention) corrects the water level plan so that the planned water level at the end of the term is as close as possible to the actual water level.

  The generated power output unit 318 calculates and outputs the generated power according to the corrected water level plan. Further, the generated power amount output unit 318 calculates the total amount of generated power in the period corresponding to the water level plan from the result database 335, and outputs it together with the generated power amount based on the water level plan.

== Evaluation support processing ==
FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining the flow of processing performed by the water level plan evaluation support apparatus 30. The specification acquisition unit 311 acquires each specification used for the calculation (S41), and the water level plan creation unit 314 is classified by the water level inflow amount stored in the optimum water level database 333 according to the input initial plan water level. A water level plan is created based on the target water level table 351 (S42), and the invalid discharge adjustment unit 315 calculates an invalid discharge for each season of the water level plan (S43) and adjusts the planned water level according to the invalid discharge. (S44) The pocket amount adjustment unit 316 adjusts the water level plan according to the pocket amount for each season (S45), and the water level plan correction unit 317 approximates the end-of-period planned water level and the end-of-term actual water level. (S46), the generated power output unit 318 calculates the generated power based on the operation results and the generated power based on the water level plan, and outputs the calculated generated power (S47). Details will be described below.

== Specification Acquisition Process (S41) ==
FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a flow of specification acquisition processing in step S41 of FIG. The specification acquisition unit 311 reads each piece of specification information from the specification storage unit 331 (S411), and reads the pocket amount (i) corresponding to each season i from the pocket amount database 336 (S412). The specification acquisition unit 311 performs the following processing for each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensu. The specification acquisition unit 311 calculates the maximum water storage amount (t, i) for each season i in year t (S413), and calculates the minimum water storage amount (t, i) (S414). Note that the maximum water storage amount (t, i) is obtained by applying the maximum operating water level H _{max, i} for the season i to the model B2, and the minimum water storage amount (t, i) is the minimum operation for the season i. The water level H _{min, i} can be calculated by applying it to the model B3. The specification acquisition unit 311 reads the actual water level in the first season of the year t from the actual database 335, applies the read actual water level to the model B1, converts it into a water storage amount, and stores the water amount corresponding to the initial planned water level. (T, 1) is set (S415). The specification acquiring unit 311 reads the actual water level at the end of year t (the beginning of year t + 1) from the actual database 335, applies the read actual water level to model B1 and converts it into the amount of stored water, and sets this to the planned water level at the end of the year. The corresponding target water storage amount (t) is set (S416). The inflow amount acquisition unit 312 acquires the inflow amount (t, i) in each season i of year t (S417). By repeating the above processing for each year t, specifications used for processing to be described later are input.

== Water level plan creation process (S42) ==
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a flow of a water level plan creation process in step S42 of FIG. The water level plan creation unit 314 performs the following processing for each season i from 1 to Kikan in each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensu. The water level plan creation unit 314 sets the stored water amount (t, i) to V (S421), sets the inflow amount (t, i) to R (S422), and applies V to the model B1 to convert it to the water level H1 (S423). ). The water level plan creation unit 314 reads out the target water levels corresponding to H1 and R from the target water level table 351 for each water level inflow corresponding to the season i in the optimum water level database 333 and sets it as H2 (S424). The water level plan creation unit 314 converts the target water level H2 into the water storage amount using the model B1, B2 or B3, and sets the water storage amount (t, i) of the next season i + 1 (S425). By repeating the above processing, a water level plan is created based on the water level table stored in the optimum water level database 333.

== Correction process according to invalid discharge (S43, S44) ==
FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the flow of the process for calculating the invalid discharge flow rate in step S43 of FIG. The ineffective discharge adjustment unit 315 has an inflow amount (t, i), a water storage amount (t, i), a water storage amount (for each season i from 1 to Kikan in each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensu. t, i + 1) and the maximum water intake amount (i) are applied to the models B4 to B7 to calculate the ineffective discharge (t, i) in the season i of the year t (S431).

  FIG. 12 is a diagram showing the flow of the planned water level adjustment process according to the invalid discharge flow rate in step S44 of FIG. The invalid discharge adjustment unit 315 performs the following processing for each season i from 1 to Kikan in each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensu.

  When the water storage amount (t, i + 1) is smaller than the maximum water storage amount (t, i + 1) (S441: YES), the invalid discharge adjusting unit 315 has a water storage amount (t, k + 1) for the season k from i to Kikan. If it is smaller than the maximum water storage amount (t, k + 1) (S442: YES), the invalid discharge flow rate (t, i) is added to the water storage amount (t, k + 1) (S443). The invalid discharge adjustment unit 315 sets the stored water amount (t, k + 1) as the maximum stored water amount (t, k + 1) when the stored water amount (t, k + 1) exceeds the maximum stored water amount (t, k + 1). .

  The ineffective discharge adjusting unit 315 converts the inflow (t, i), the stored water (t, i), the maximum water intake (i), and the stored water (t, i + 1) into models B4 to B7 for the season i of the year t. Applying, the ineffective flow rate (t, i) in season i of year t is calculated (S444).

  By repeating the above processing, the water storage amount (t, i) in each season i of each year t increases the water storage amount within a range not exceeding the maximum water storage amount (t, i), and the invalid discharge flow (t , I) is made as small as possible.

== Correction Processing According to Pocket Amount (S45) ==
FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the flow of the planned water level adjustment process according to the pocket amount in step S45 of FIG. The pocket amount adjusting unit 316 performs the following processing for each season i from 1 to Kikan in each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensu.

  The pocket amount adjusting unit 316 calculates a water intake amount (t, i) in season i of year t (S4501). The amount of water intake (t, i) is determined based on models B4 to B6 based on the amount of water stored in season i (t, i), the amount of water stored in next season i + 1 (t, i), the amount of inflow (t, i), and the maintenance flow rate S0. It can be calculated by applying. The pocket amount adjusting unit 316 sets a value obtained by subtracting the next pocket amount (i + 1) from the maximum water storage amount (t, i + 1) in the next season i + 1 (S451). The pocket amount adjustment unit 316 has a water storage amount (t, i + 1) of the next season i + 1 larger than the adjustment value, and a water intake amount (t, i) of the season i is equal to or less than the maximum water intake amount (i) (S4503). : YES), the water intake amount (t, i) is taken as 0 (S4504), and the difference between the adjusted value and the water storage amount (t, i + 1) is added to the water amount (t, i) (S4505). The pocket amount adjusting unit 316 sets the water intake amount (t, i) as the maximum water intake amount (i) when the water intake amount (t, i) exceeds the maximum water intake amount (i). The pocket amount adjusting unit 316 sets the difference between the water intake (t, i) and water intake 0 as the increased water intake (S4506), and based on the models B6 and B6, the amount of decrease (ΔV) from the increased water intake is reduced. The amount of water is calculated and set as a reduced amount of stored water (S4507). When the value obtained by subtracting the minimum water storage amount (t, k) from the water storage amount (t, k) for the season k from i to Kikan is smaller than the reduced water storage amount (S4508: YES) ), A value obtained by subtracting the minimum water storage amount (t, k) from the water storage amount (t, k) is set as a reduced water storage amount (S4509), and the reduced water storage amount is subtracted from the water storage amount (t, k) (S4510).

  By repeating the above processing, the water storage amount (t, i) at each season i of each year t is within a range not exceeding the maximum water intake amount so as not to exceed the maximum water storage amount minus the pocket amount. Adjusted.

== Water Level Plan Correction Process (S46) ==
FIG. 14 is a diagram showing the flow of the water level plan correction process in step S46 of FIG. For each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensuu, the water level plan correction unit 317 determines that the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) corresponding to the planned water level at the end of year t is equal to or greater than the target water storage amount (t). (S461: YES), correction processing for increasing the water intake amount is performed (S462), and when the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) is smaller than the target water storage amount (t) (S461: NO), the water intake amount is decreased. Correction processing is performed (S463).

  FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a flow of correction processing for increasing the water intake amount in step S462 of FIG. The water level plan correction unit 317 performs the following processing for each season i from Kikan to 1. The water level plan correction unit 317 has a water intake amount (t, i) smaller than the maximum water intake amount (i), and a water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) corresponding to the planned water level at the end of the period is equal to or greater than the target water storage amount (t). In the case (S4621: YES), a value (step value) obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake (i) of season i by the water intake adjustment coefficient a is added to the water intake (t, i) (S4622). Based on the models B6 and B6, the water level plan correction unit 317 calculates the amount of decrease in water storage (ΔV) from the value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake (i) by the water intake adjustment coefficient a, and calculates the reduced water storage amount. (S4623). In step S4622, if the difference between the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) and the target water storage amount (t) is smaller than a × maximum water intake amount (i), the water intake amount (t, i) is The difference between the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) and the target water storage amount (t) is added. Moreover, when the water intake (t, i) after addition exceeds the maximum water intake (i), in step S4623, the reduced water storage is performed based on the difference between the maximum water intake (i) and the water intake (t, i). The amount is calculated, and the maximum water intake amount (i) is set as the water intake amount (t, i) in step S4622.

  The water level plan correction unit 317 subtracts the reduced water storage amount from the water storage amount (t, k + 1) for each season k from Kikan to i (S4624). If the value obtained by subtracting the reduced water storage amount from the water storage amount (t, k + 1) is smaller than the minimum water storage amount (t, k + 1), the water level plan correction unit 317 stores water for that k. The difference between the amount (t, k + 1) and the minimum water storage amount (t, k + 1) is set as the reduced water storage amount, and the value obtained by converting the reduced water storage amount into the water amount is added to the water intake amount (t, i). Thus, the processing from step S4622 may be performed again.

  By repeating the above process, if the planned water level at the end of the fiscal year is equal to or higher than the actual water level at the end of the fiscal year, the amount of water intake in each season is increased in order from the end of the fiscal year, and the water level is lowered to approximate be able to.

  FIG. 16 is a diagram showing a flow of correction processing for reducing the water intake amount in step S463 of FIG. The water level plan correction unit 317 performs the following processing for each season i from Kikan to 1. The water level plan correction unit 317 has a water intake amount (t, i) larger than 0 and the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) corresponding to the planned water level at the end of the period is equal to or less than the target water storage amount (t) (S4631: YES) ), The value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake (i) of season i by the water intake adjustment coefficient a is subtracted from the water intake (t, i) (S4632). Based on the models B6 and B6, the water level plan correction unit 317 calculates the amount of increase (ΔV) of the water storage amount from the value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake amount (i) by the water intake amount adjustment coefficient a, and the increased water storage amount. (S4633). In step S4632, if the difference between the target water storage amount (t) and the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) is smaller than a × maximum water intake amount (i), the water intake amount (t, i) is The difference between the target water storage amount (t) and the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) is subtracted. Further, when the subtracted water intake (t, i) is less than the minimum water intake (i), in step S4633 the increased water storage based on the difference between the water intake (t, i) and the minimum water intake (i). The amount is calculated, and in step S4622, the minimum intake amount (i) is set as the intake amount (t, i).

  The water level plan correction unit 317 adds the increased water storage amount to the water storage amount (t, k + 1) for each season k from Kikan to i (S4634). In addition, the water level plan correction | amendment part 317 is the maximum water storage amount about k, when the value which added the additional water storage amount to the water storage amount (t, k + 1) exceeds the maximum water storage amount (t, k + 1) exists. The difference between (t, k + 1) and the stored water volume (t, k + 1) is set as the increased stored water volume, and the value obtained by converting the increased stored water volume into the water volume is subtracted from the intake water volume (t, i). The process from step S4632 may be redone.

  By repeating the above process, if the planned water level at the end of the period is below the actual water level at the end of the period, the planned water level at the end of the period is approximated with the actual water level at the end of the period by decreasing the water intake in each season and increasing the water level. Can be made.

== Output Power Generation Processing (S47) ==
FIG. 17 is a diagram showing a flow of the output processing of the generated power amount in step S47 of FIG. The generated power output unit 318 performs the following processing for each year t from the start year t0 to the end year Nensu. For each season i from 1 to Kikan, the generated power output unit 318 stores water (t, i), stored water (t, i + 1), inflow (t, i), and invalid discharge flow in models B4 to B6. The amount of water intake (t, i) is calculated by applying (t, i) (S471). In addition, when applying to models B4 to B6, the amount of stored water (t, i) is adjusted to the unit (m ³ / day) of the inflow amount (t, i) using the quotient divided by the number of days in the period (i). calculate. The power generation amount output unit 318 calculates the daily power generation amount by applying the calculated water intake amount (t, i) to the models B9 and B10, and multiplies it by the number of days in the period (i). The amount of generated power in season i is calculated and set as the planned amount of generated power (S472). The generated power output unit 318 reads the actual generated power corresponding to the season i of the year t from the actual database 335 (S473). The generated power output unit 318 repeats the above process for each season i, and then the planned generated power (t, i) and actual generated power (t, i) for year t (1 ≦ i ≦ Kikan) Are summed (S474), and the total value of the planned power generation amount and the total value of the actual power generation amount are output (S475). The generated power output unit 318 may output the planned generated power and the actual generated power for each season.

  As described above, for each year, the amount of power generated when operating according to the water level plan corrected so that the planned water level at the end of the year approximates the actual water level at the end of the year and the amount of power generated by actual operation are output. When the water level is planned based on the target water level table 351 by the water level inflow amount, the user can easily grasp whether the generated power amount increases or decreases from the actual result. Therefore, the user can easily evaluate the superiority of the water level plan with respect to the actual water level by comparing the water level plan with the operation results. Moreover, since the water level plan is created based on the water level table, the effectiveness of the water level table can be evaluated.

  Moreover, in the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus 30 of this embodiment, a plan water level can be adjusted so that an ineffective discharge flow rate may be suppressed. In general, when an actual reservoir is operated, a water level operation is often performed so as to suppress an invalid discharge as much as possible. Therefore, by adjusting the planned water level so as to suppress the invalid discharge flow as described above, the planned water level can be adjusted to a realistic water level when the operation is actually performed based on the water level plan. Thereby, a more realistic comparison can be performed.

  In this embodiment, the water level plan is compared with the actual water level actually used. However, this is used when two different water level plans created by the first and second water level tables are compared. You can also. In this case, for example, the processing described in this embodiment may be performed with the water level of the first water level plan as the actual water level and the water level of the second water level plan as the planned water level.

  Moreover, in this embodiment, although 1 year was made into the evaluation period, it is not restricted to this, Arbitrary periods, such as a half year and 2 years, can also be made into an evaluation period. Similarly, in this embodiment, the unit period is assumed to be seasonal, but any unit period such as a month, a week, or a day may be used.

  In the present embodiment, the correction is made so that the planned water level at the end of the term and the actual water level at the end of the term are approximated. However, the correction may be repeated until they completely match.

  In this embodiment, the water intake is adjusted by a value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake by the water intake adjustment coefficient a. However, the water intake may be adjusted using a predetermined constant (step value). Good. Moreover, you may make it change the value which adjusts a water intake amount dynamically. For example, when the end-of-period planned water level and the end-of-period actual water level are matched, the adjustment value can be determined according to the difference between the end-of-period planned water level and the end-of-period actual water level. 18 and 19 are diagrams showing a modification of the processing of FIGS. 15 and 16 when the step value is dynamically determined. In the process of FIG. 18, before step S4622 of FIG. 15, A is calculated by subtracting the target water storage amount (t) from the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) corresponding to the period-end planned water level (S501), and in step S4622 Instead of the step value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake (i) of season i by the water intake adjustment coefficient a, a step value obtained by dividing A by a predetermined value m is calculated. In step S4623, the quotient obtained by dividing A by m From the above, the amount of decrease in water storage (ΔV) is calculated and used as a decrease in water storage. In the process of FIG. 19, before step S4632 in FIG. 16, A is calculated by subtracting the water storage amount (t, Kikan + 1) corresponding to the planned water level at the end of the period from the target water storage amount (t) (S511), and step S4632 Then, instead of the step value obtained by multiplying the maximum water intake (i) of season i by the water intake adjustment coefficient a, a step value obtained by dividing A by a predetermined value m is calculated. In step S4633, A is divided by m. From the quotient, the amount of water increase (ΔV) is calculated to obtain the increased water storage amount. By repeating the processes of FIGS. 14, 17, and 18, the adjustment value can be converged and the end-of-period planned water level can be matched with the end-of-period actual water level.

  In this embodiment, the water level plan is created based on the water level table. However, the water level plan created by any method such as manual may be corrected. In this case, for example, it becomes possible to verify the effectiveness of a water level plan created by an engineer based on experience.

  In this embodiment, it is assumed that the planned water level and the actual water level coincide at the beginning of the term, but this is not limiting, and the planned water level and the actual water level coincide at the end of the term or somewhere in the term. It only has to be.

For example, when the planned water level and the actual water level are made coincident at the end of the period, the water level is determined from the end of the period toward the beginning of the period based on the water level plan table, and the water level at the beginning of the period is adjusted. In the process shown in FIG. 10, the water level plan creation unit 314 calculates the water level H _i and the inflow amount R of the seasonal i from the target water level table 351 according to the water level inflow amount of the seasonal i-1 for each season i from Kikan to 1. The water level H _i-1 of the corresponding season i- ₁ is determined. Moreover, the water level plan correction | amendment part 317 makes it process about the season i from 1 to Kikan in the process of FIGS. 15 and 16, and makes corrections in order from the initial water level. As a result, the planned water level at the end of the term and the actual water level at the end of the term are matched, and the planned water level at the beginning of the term and the actual water level can be approximated.

  In addition, when the planned water level and the actual water level are matched at the beginning of the period, the water level from the matched season to the end of the period is planned and corrected by the processing described in the present embodiment, and is matched from the season. The water level up to the beginning of the period is planned and corrected in the same manner as when the planned water level and the actual water level at the end of the period are matched as described above. Thereby, even when the water level is planned in accordance with the actual water level in the beginning of the period, the planned water level and the actual water level can be approximated at both the beginning and the end of the period.

  Although the present embodiment has been described above, the above embodiment is intended to facilitate understanding of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and the present invention includes equivalents thereof.

30 Water level plan evaluation support device 311 Specification acquisition unit 312 Inflow amount acquisition unit 313 Actual water level acquisition unit 314 Water level plan creation unit 315 Invalid discharge adjustment unit 316 Pocket amount adjustment unit 317 Water level plan correction unit 318 Power generation amount output unit 331 Specifications Storage unit 332 Model storage unit 333 Optimal water level database 334 Planned water level database 335 Performance database 336 Pocket volume database 351 Target water level table by water level inflow

Claims (7)

A device for supporting evaluation of a water level plan in a water storage facility,
A water level information storage unit for storing water level information for determining a planned water level that is a water level in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period;
An actual water level acquisition unit for acquiring an initial actual water level and an end-of-term actual water level that are actual values of the water level in the first and last unit periods of the past operation period;
A water level plan creation unit that creates a water level plan that is a combination of the planned water levels, based on the initial actual water level and the water level information;
For each of the unit periods, an intake amount calculation unit that calculates an intake amount that is the amount of water used for hydropower generation based on the planned water level in the unit period and the planned water level in the unit period next to the unit period; ,
The intake water amount is changed so that the planned water level at the end of the last unit period in the water level plan is close to the planned water level at the end of the term and the actual water level at the end of the term, and the planned water level is corrected according to the changed intake amount. A planned water level correction unit,
A water level plan evaluation support device characterized by comprising: The water level plan evaluation support device according to claim 1,
The actual water level acquisition unit acquires the actual value of the water level in each of the unit periods in the past operation period,
Power generation that calculates a first generated power amount based on the actual value of the water level, calculates a second generated power amount based on the corrected planned water level, and outputs the first and second generated power amounts An energy output unit;
A water level plan evaluation support device characterized by further comprising: It is the water level plan evaluation assistance apparatus in any one of Claim 1 or 2,
The water level information is a table associating a water level at the beginning of the unit period and an inflow amount into the water storage facility during the unit period with a water level at the end of the unit period;
Water level plan evaluation support device characterized by The water level plan evaluation support device according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
For each of the unit periods, further comprising a water level plan creation unit that converts each of the planned water levels into a stored water amount,
The planned water level correction unit is
For each unit period from the last unit period to the first unit period,
While the planned water level at the end of the period is equal to or higher than the actual water level at the end of the period, a predetermined step value is added to the water intake amount of the unit period, and the planned water levels of all the unit periods from the unit period to the last unit period According to the step value,
While the planned water level at the end of the period is less than the actual water level at the end of the period, the step value is subtracted from the intake amount of the unit period, and the planned water levels of all the unit periods from the unit period to the last unit period are calculated. Increasing according to the step value;
Water level plan evaluation support device characterized by The water level plan evaluation support device according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
For each unit period, a pocket amount storage unit that stores a pocket amount that is a difference between an invalid discharge amount in the unit period and a maximum value of the water storage amount in the water storage facility,
A pocket amount adjusting unit for adjusting the water intake amount so that the planned water level of the unit period is equal to or less than a water level corresponding to a value obtained by subtracting the pocket amount from the maximum value;
A water level plan evaluation support device characterized by further comprising: A method for supporting evaluation of a water level plan in a water storage facility,
Computer
Storing water level information for determining a planned water level, which is a water level in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period;
Obtain the initial actual water level and the final actual water level that are the actual values of the water level in the first and last unit period of the past operation period,
Based on the initial actual water level and the water level information, create a water level plan that is a combination of the planned water level,
For each of the unit periods, a water intake amount that is the amount of water used for hydropower generation is calculated based on the planned water level in the unit period and the planned water level in the unit period next to the unit period,
The intake water amount is changed so that the planned water level at the end of the last unit period in the water level plan is close to the planned water level at the end of the term and the actual water level at the end of the term, and the planned water level is corrected according to the changed intake amount. To do,
Water level plan evaluation support method characterized by A program for supporting the evaluation of water level plans in water storage facilities,
On the computer,
Storing water level information for determining a planned water level which is a water level in a unit period constituting a predetermined operation period;
Obtaining an initial period actual water level and an end period actual water level that are actual values of the water level in the first and last unit periods of the past operation period;
Creating a water level plan that is a combination of the planned water levels based on the initial actual water level and the water level information;
For each of the unit periods, calculating a water intake amount that is the amount of water used for hydropower generation based on the planned water level in the unit period and the planned water level in the unit period next to the unit period;
The intake water amount is changed so that the planned water level at the end of the last unit period in the water level plan is close to the planned water level at the end of the term and the actual water level at the end of the term, and the planned water level is corrected according to the changed intake amount. And steps to
A program for running

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