JP2010198286A - Support method for efficiency-promotion in supply chain - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a support method for efficiency-promotion in a supply chain, which can prevent production delay due to stockout of materials and shipping delay due to shortage of product inventory, even if sales plan variation of rapid quantity sold increase exceeding initially-assumed sales variation occurs, and can minimize disposal loss of products and exclusive materials at the time point of completion of the product life. <P>SOLUTION: Secondary sales variation larger than initially-assumed primary sales variation is assumed to perform demand prediction at a remaining life cycle of a product. On the basis of information on demand, and inventory of the product and the materials, simulation is performed with a supply chain model so that a rate of inventory in a plant within inventory as the entire supply chain is increased, thereby computing and selecting the safe inventory number, inventory locations and temporary distribution routes of the product and materials such that stockout of the product is not caused and the disposal loss of the product and materials at the EOL (End Of Life) time point is minimized. Further, the simulation is performed on the life cycle of the product at a predetermined cycle and a predetermined period. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2010,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention does not cause a product shortage even if the sales plan fluctuates in the product supply chain, and can reduce loss of product and material disposal that occurs at the end of the product life cycle. , Concerning supply chain chain efficiency support methods.

  By the time a product arrives at a customer, multiple operations from procurement of materials including raw materials (hereinafter also referred to as parts) to delivery to the customer, such as material procurement, production, sales and logistics (hereinafter referred to as departments) A series of business activities are performed through coordination of business activities in each business.

  The business is not always limited to one site, and is generally composed of a plurality of sites. For example, the sales department is often composed of a plurality of sales bases.

  Optimization of such a chain of business activities, the so-called supply chain (efficiency) has been studied as an important issue.

  When optimizing a supply chain where there are multiple operations, consider production information such as production volume and delivery date, procurement, production, distribution, sales, etc., and information about their bases from multiple perspectives. It becomes necessary to do. Such a thing is generally called supply chain management (SCM).

  For this reason, in order to optimize the supply chain, a method for creating a supply chain model on a computer and performing simulation on the computer to optimize the supply chain has been developed.

  In the supply chain, if there are weak parts in the chain, such as the flow of information and information, such as unclear stock quantity, the supply chain may be broken. Therefore, in order to optimize the flow of materials and information for business activities such as procurement, production, sales, and logistics of materials, it is necessary to capture the flow of materials in real time for all operations in the supply chain. . Therefore, introduction of an information system package called an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package has been promoted for the core business of a company.

  The ERP package is an integrated business package, which is package software for an enterprise information system that integrates the entire enterprise activities such as sales, production, logistics, and finance. It is intended to integrate systems built separately in each department so that they can be referred to and used by each department. Centralized management of data such as financial accounting and personnel, system upgrades and easy maintenance inspections, etc. It is possible to refer to the work of the department in real time.

  In the supply chain, sales and production plans are prepared in response to orders from customers, and materials are procured from the outside or other material suppliers (hereinafter referred to as suppliers), and production activities are carried out in the production process. .

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a supply chain. In FIG. 1, a customer 21 places an order for a product at a sales base 22 where the product is purchased. The sales base 22 creates a sales plan based on the order from the customer 21 and the sales forecast at the sales base 22 and places an order with the sales department 23. Here, the sales base 22 refers to a sales department in a sales department of a manufacturing company that produces a product, and a sales company such as a distributor or an agency independent of the manufacturing company.

  The sales department 23 creates a demand plan based on orders from a plurality of sales bases 22, an inventory plan in the sales department 23, and orders products from the production department 24. Here, the sales department 23 has a business that supervises orders, entry / exit information, sales information, and the like from each sales base, and has a base warehouse 42 that temporarily stocks products. Accordingly, the warehouse information is also base warehouse information including product inventory information of the base warehouse 42. The sales department 23 is often a department of the manufacturing company. A plurality of sales departments 23 may be provided for each region, for example, for each city, prefecture, etc. in the country, and for each state, county, etc. outside the country.

  The production department 24 considers the factory inventory of products and materials based on the demand plan from the sales department 23, decides the shipment of products, the production quantity at the factory, and orders the materials from the material procurement department 25. The material ordering department orders materials from a plurality of suppliers 26 and procures materials. In FIG. 1, solid arrows indicate the flow of goods, and broken arrows indicate the flow of information such as orders.

  In the example shown in FIG. 1, the place where the production department 24 and the material procurement department 25 are provided is the factory 201, but the material procurement department 25 may be provided in a place different from the factory 201.

  Hereinafter, the stock of products and materials in the production department 24 and the material procurement department 25 is also referred to as stock in the factory 201 (factory stock).

  When placing an order for the product, in general, in addition to the order confirmation information for the product, the procurement side (ordering side) notifies future supply information (forecast information) from the procurement side (ordering side) to the supply side. The forecast information is changed to product order confirmation information (confirmation information) on a predetermined date. As a result, the supply side can make a future production plan, and it is possible to suppress the occurrence of excess inventory and shortage. In the example of FIG. 1, sales prospect information and sales confirmation information from the sales base to the sales department are demand forecast information and demand confirmation information from the sales department to the production department.

  However, orders from customers do not always stay constant, and sales plans may vary. This causes demand and production plan fluctuations when changing from forecast information to confirmed information.

  The so-called product life cycle from the start of sales of products to the end of production (end of sale) is generally considered to go through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. During the decline period, the amount of demand decreases, and the product life in the product life cycle ends, that is, the end of product production, so-called End Of Life (hereinafter also abbreviated as EOL).

  Here, in the end of production and sales of a product that reaches the end of its product life (hereinafter also referred to as EOL product), in many cases, production and sales of the next product succeeding the EOL product are started, and the EOL product is Switch to the next product. However, since the next product is a new product, the production start time may fluctuate from the original plan due to sales strategy, production, quality, etc. (in many cases, it will be delayed). For this reason, sales and production fluctuations of the next product occur, and accordingly, sales and production of EOL products may also fluctuate. As described above, fluctuations in sales and production may occur at the time when the product is switched from the EOL product to the next product.

  For this reason, it is possible to prevent delays in production due to shortage of products due to shortage of products and parts (parts) with long delivery lead times due to shortage of products, especially for fluctuations in sales plans, and to reduce inventory costs. Materials and product inventory that can be minimized are desired.

  In addition, the stock and materials of the product at the time of EOL of the EOL product, especially the dedicated material of the corresponding product remain as surplus stock and are discarded to cause a disposal loss. For this reason, it is desired to reduce the waste loss.

  In contrast to the above, calculating the error of the past forecast information, the average value of the error, and the standard deviation of the error from the past forecast information and the order received corresponding thereto, and correcting the current forecast information The calculation of the order quantity is disclosed. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1).

  In addition, it is disclosed that a supply chain model is evaluated based on an evaluation index, an optimal supply chain model is set, and an optimal supply chain is constructed based on the optimal supply chain model (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

  In addition, the computer obtains time information including the time of manufacture or start of use of the product used by the customer, compares the demand forecast period with the obtained time information, and the product life expectancy comes during the demand forecast period Extracting a product is disclosed (for example, refer to Patent Document 3).

JP 2006-39802 A JP 2007-226718 A JP 2004-30002 A

  Patent Document 1 corrects the current forecast information and calculates the order quantity, so that the order receiving side can make a highly accurate order prediction, thereby preventing the occurrence of shortage and excessive inventory. It is intended to effectively suppress. However, in the case of a sudden change in order, it is impossible to predict whether or not a shortage will occur, and a shortage may occur.

  Patent Document 2 optimizes the flow of information and the flow of business activities such as procurement, production, logistics, and sales of an operating supply chain by simulating the form of the operating supply chain as a supply chain model. It is. However, the response to changes in sales and demand is not considered.

  Patent Document 3 provides a demand prediction method with excellent accuracy and efficiency for producing economically in a timely manner in accordance with the required amount. However, there was no mention of adjustment of material inventory in the production department, and there was a risk that material inventory would become excessive.

  Conventionally, in order to cope with a sudden increase in orders for products more than expected, it has been generally performed to have a large number of products and materials in stock. Such a sudden increase in the order of products may occur at the time when the product is switched from the EOL product to the next product as described above. For example, if the production start time of the next product is delayed from the original plan, the EOL product may be increased and connected to the next product. In many cases, the delay in the production start time of the next product is unexpected, and therefore the increase in production of the EOL product is often sudden.

  In addition, the products often have different specifications for each destination (sales destination). For example, for Japan and North America, the power specifications, language displayed on the device, various specifications such as various attachments are different, and for the same North America, for example, the language displayed on the device for Canada and the US Are different, but various specifications such as power supply specifications are different. In this way, the number of specifications that differ for each destination increases as the sales destination of the product becomes global.

  For this reason, the above-mentioned sudden increase in orders for products may occur for a certain specification (destination), and the order may decrease for different specifications (destination).

  As described above, if a method for increasing the number of stocks is used, it is possible to reduce delay in delivery due to a shortage of products. However, the material procurement department has a large safety stock for materials, particularly materials (parts) with a long delivery lead time, so-called long delivery parts. In the production department, products with a long production lead time will have more products as safety stock. In many cases, the stock of products in the production department is generally in the form of a single product, not the final shipment state from the factory, that is, the packaging completion state.

  Here, the production lead time refers to the time, days, etc. required for production per product.

  On the other hand, the sales department will have the product as a safety stock as a countermeasure when the product delivery time is delayed due to a material shortage in the production department. In this way, each department in the supply chain has a safety stock in a form corresponding to each department, and the entire supply chain often has an excessive number of inventory.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of product distribution conventionally performed. In the example shown in FIG. 5, the product inventory is performed at the base warehouse 42 and the sales base 22, and therefore, the increased stock of the product safety stock to cope with the sales plan fluctuation is also calculated for each base warehouse 42 and the sales base 22. I had it. In addition, product distribution was carried out by the usual route.

  Here, if the order increase from the sales base is more than expected, if the delivery date is changed to a delivery time sufficient for procurement from the production department, that is, a long delivery time, There is no problem with the safety stock as expected. However, in general, the delivery date when the order increase is within an assumed range, that is, the normal delivery date is often obtained.

  For this reason, the above-mentioned safety stock in the sales department increased due to sales fluctuations in addition to the quantity corresponding to the difference between the delivery lead time (LT) and the distribution lead time (LT) in procurement from the production department and the delivery date. Often the quantity takes into account minutes.

  The shipment LT is the time and days required for a product ordered from the sales department to be shipped to the production department and shipped from the factory (production department). is there. Logistics LT is the time and days required for a product to be shipped from a factory (production department) and received at a sales department (base warehouse). Also, the quantity corresponding to the difference between the sum of the shipping LT and the logistics LT and the delivery date is, for example, 2 days for the shipping LT, 5 days for the logistics LT, and 4 days for the delivery date. The quantity of minutes. This is the case where the order and the order are on the same day, and if they are different, it may be necessary for the number of days.

  In addition, as described above, the life cycle of a product is generally considered to end the product life through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. Hereinafter, the time when the product life ends is also referred to as EOL time.

  For this reason, as described above, if each department has a certain safety stock, materials, particularly materials dedicated to the product and unsold products may remain as surplus stock during EOL. In many cases, the dedicated material and the excess product inventory are discarded and become a disposal loss. In particular, product disposal loss is expensive.

  In addition, during the decline of the product life cycle, the number of products issued from the sales department (base warehouse) generally decreases, and the sales department also reduces the product inventory, and the product to the production department. We will also reduce orders. However, the material procurement department often has a large amount of material safety stock as a response to a sudden increase in product orders. Furthermore, for materials with long delivery lead times, orders may be placed as usual with information before the demand declines. Many parts with long delivery times have high unit prices, such as electronic parts, and the disposal loss sometimes increases.

  As described above, the change of the safety stock is slow when it is performed at the time of demand fluctuation, and as described above, the surplus stock increases and the disposal loss may increase.

  In Patent Documents 1 to 3, the safety stock of the dedicated materials and products at each stage of the life cycle is not considered, and it is difficult to reduce the loss of disposal of the dedicated materials and products at the time of the EOL. Met.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above situation, and prevents delays in production due to a shortage of materials and shipment delays due to a shortage of product inventory even if a sales plan fluctuation with a sudden increase in sales exceeding the initially assumed fluctuation in sales occurs. An object of the present invention is to provide a supply chain efficiency support method capable of minimizing the loss of disposal of products and dedicated materials at the end of product life.

  The above object is achieved by the following method.

1. When the sales plan for product sales and the demand plan for product procurement shift from prospective information (forecast information) to finalized information, there may be fluctuations. An efficiency improvement method for improving the efficiency of a supply chain consisting of a plurality of operations,
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
With respect to the sales plan and the demand plan at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain, assuming a primary fluctuation range in which the sales plan and the demand plan are changed, and a secondary fluctuation range in which the primary fluctuation range is increased, Creating primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information and storing them in the storage means;
Create simulation data based on ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package product, production, and distribution route information, primary change information, and secondary change information that store product, production, distribution route, and material information Creating simulation data by means and storing it in the storage means;
In the life cycle of the product, formulating demand forecast information for the period from the beginning to the end of the remaining production and storing it in the storage means;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range is performed on a computer without causing a shortage of the product when the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range occurs, and Calculating the number of safety stocks that minimize the inventory cost of products and materials;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, the demand prediction information, and the material information, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width is performed on a computer, and the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width occurs. The total number of products in the factory, out of the total number of products in the entire supply chain and the converted number of materials converted to the number of products in stock, without causing product shortages Calculate the number of products, material safety stock and product inventory location and quantity that will minimize the disposal cost of the product and the material at the end of product production, and the distribution route of the product and material. Selecting, and
A method for supporting efficiency in a supply chain, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed in a cycle for each predetermined unit period.

  2. The primary fluctuation information includes a primary fluctuation sales plan based on the primary fluctuation width, a primary fluctuation demand plan, and a primary fluctuation production plan based on the primary fluctuation demand plan, and the secondary fluctuation information is based on the secondary fluctuation width. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to 1, further comprising a secondary variable sales plan, a secondary variable demand plan, and a secondary variable production plan based on the secondary variable demand plan.

  3. 3. The supply chain efficiency support method according to item 1 or 2, wherein the plurality of operations include material procurement operations, production operations, sales operations, sales base operations, and logistics operations relating to the respective operations.

  4). The material information includes material-specific / common information regarding whether the material is a dedicated material for the product or a common material with other products including the next product, the number of lots ordered, the material unit price, and the material delivery lead time. 4. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of items 1 to 3, wherein

  5. 5. The supply chain efficiency support according to any one of 1 to 4, wherein the product information includes data used for the product, the quantity of the material, a process chart of the product, and configuration data. Method.

  6). The production information includes production plan information of product production volume and delivery date, stock information of materials, order information, delivery date information and price information, and product inventory information in production and sales. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of the above.

  7). 7. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 6, wherein the information on the distribution route includes a distribution lead time and a distribution cost of a distribution route of products and materials.

  8). In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. 8. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 7.

  According to the above, using the supply chain model, in order to increase the proportion of product inventory at the factory in the product inventory of the entire supply chain, the safety stock number of products and materials in a predetermined cycle in the product life cycle Simulate inventory location. As a result, the stock amount of products and materials can be minimized without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations (secondary fluctuations) more than expected occur in the entire supply chain, and the product life cycle It is possible to reduce the loss of disposal of products and materials (mainly dedicated materials) when the process is completed (during EOL). In addition, in order to increase the ratio of product inventory at the factory, it becomes easier to respond to changes in destinations due to fluctuations in product destinations, in addition to material stocks, reducing hand loss of products. Can be planned.

It is the schematic which shows an example of a supply chain. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the physical distribution of the product performed conventionally. It is a figure of the example which used the temporary distribution route (air mail) for the product shipment from a factory. It is a figure of the example which used the temporary distribution route (air mail) for the product shipment from a factory. An example of the flowchart which aims at the efficiency improvement of the supply chain which concerns on this invention is shown. It is a figure which shows transition of forecast information and material order confirmation information.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings, but the present invention is not limited thereto.

  FIG. 9 is a table showing an example of changes in order forecast information (hereinafter also referred to as forecast) and order confirmation information (hereinafter also referred to as order confirmation). FIG. 9 shows an example in which the order interval, the forecast transmission interval, and the delivery lead time are set to one week. These intervals are appropriately set depending on the types of products and materials, and are, for example, two weeks or one month. The intervals may be different. In FIG. 9, the order confirmation is denoted as PO and the forecast as FC.

  In accordance with the ordering plan prepared by the first order, PO1 for order confirmation is ordered in one week of the planned ordering, and a forward FC1 is transmitted. PO1 is delivered in 2 weeks. In 2 weeks, FC1 is changed to PO2 and an order is placed, and a forecast FC2 is transmitted. PO2 is delivered in 3 weeks. The same goes for the following. FIG. 9 shows an example in which delivery is completed in nine weeks.

  In the example of FIG. 9, the ordering is performed by creating a material requirement plan by MRP (Material Requirements Planning) or the like based on the production plan every week.

  Further, order information such as reservation information (reservation) may be provided between forecast and order confirmation. In this case, as an example, Forecast is not a commitment to purchase materials, and reservation is a commitment to purchase, but is not a commitment, and order confirmation may be a commitment to both purchase and timing.

  Figures 2, 3, and 4 show the process from material procurement to production process, including demand and production plans where product ordering information shifts from forecast to order confirmation and demand and production fluctuations may occur due to sales plan fluctuations. FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of a supply chain efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of a supply chain of products that reach customers (product shipping destinations). The block diagram is divided into FIGS. 2, 3 and 4 for the purpose of illustration, but FIGS. 2, 3 and 4 are integrated. For the supply chain 20, refer to FIG. The supply chain 20 has a plurality of operations including a material procurement operation, a production operation, a sales operation, a sales base operation, and a logistics operation related to each operation.

  The database 1 in FIG. 3 is a storage means for storing the various data and information described above, and the data and information of the ERP package 2 are also transmitted as necessary via the relay program 6 and the data conversion unit 7 which is a simulation data creation means. It is captured. In addition, simulation data created by the data converter 7 described later is also captured. Of the data and information of the ERP package 2, data and information that are not used by the data conversion unit 7 may be directly taken into the database 1 via the relay program 6 without using the data conversion unit 7.

  In the present embodiment, data exchange between the ERP package 2 and the data conversion unit 7 is performed by connecting online via the relay program 6, but may be offline. In that case, the data output from each of the ERP package 2 and the data conversion unit 7 is recorded in a recording means, for example, a data management sheet, and the input of each of the ERP package 2 and the data conversion unit 7 which are opposed to each other based on the recording Data is input from a means such as a keyboard.

  The ERP package 2 is an integrated business package, has an integrated database, and stores product information, production information, distribution route information, material information, and the like.

  The product information includes materials used for the product for each destination of the product, the quantity of the material, a product process chart, configuration data, and the like. The production information includes a production plan of a product and a delivery date, production lead time, material delivery route, delivery lead time, inventory, ordering, delivery date, price information, product inventory information in production and sales, and the like. The distribution route information includes information on the distribution lead time and distribution cost for each product and material of the normal distribution route and the temporary distribution route used for product shipment and material procurement from the production department 24 to the base warehouse 42. The material information includes information on whether each material is a dedicated material for the product or a common material with other products including the next product.

  Here, as described above, the product inventory in the production department is generally performed in the form of a single product, not the final shipment state from the factory, that is, the packaging completion state. Therefore, the products stocked in the production department can be easily modified to change specifications such as destination change.

  In addition, in the case of inventory with materials, not only can production be performed according to the required destination, but also the materials can be easily transferred to other products. However, in the case of stock of materials, a production lead time is required to make a product.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 creates a sales plan based on the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain 20. The sales plan is created for the EOL product and the next product after the sales of the next product are started.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 is provided in, for example, a sales management department in the sales base 22. The sales plan is transmitted to the demand plan creation unit 41. The unit period is a predetermined period in which a product production / sales plan is created, and production / sales are carried out by continuing the unit period. For example, it is set as appropriate according to the type, form, etc. of the product, such as every month, every three months, etc. The unit period is not always a fixed length. For example, the unit period may be changed at each stage of the product life cycle, introduction period, growth period, maturity period, decline period, and the like. Alternatively, the actual demand may vary every time.

  The demand plan creation unit 41 creates a demand plan based on the sales plan, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the entry / exit information, and taking into account sales fluctuations. Further, it is determined in which stage of the product life cycle the EOL product is assumed in advance, and EOL stage information is created. The demand plan includes forecast information and confirmation information for EOL products, and production request plan information for the next product. The EOL stage information can be created in a department other than the demand plan creation unit 41.

  The base warehouse 42 temporarily stores the product delivered from the production department 24 and ships the product in response to a shipping request (order received) from the sales base 22. Information on the base warehouse 42 includes product inventory information, receipt / shipment information, and the like. The demand plan creation unit 41 and the base warehouse 42 are provided in the sales department 23, for example, the procurement management department.

  The demand plan and EOL stage information are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5.

  Based on the demand plan, the production plan creation unit 5 creates production plans for the EOL product and the next product in consideration of the constraints of material procurement, factories and logistics, and the product inventory status in the production department 24. Restrictions on material procurement include parts production capacity and material delivery lead time. The factory constraint conditions include production lead time, process maximum production capacity, process production capacity switching condition, and the like. Distribution restrictions include product shipment and distribution lead time, distribution capability, warehouse inventory capability, and the like. The production plan creation unit 5 is provided, for example, in the production management department in the production department 24.

  The sales plan, demand plan, EOL stage information, base warehouse, and production plan information are input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7. These plans and information are applied to the supply chain 20 of the target product at the beginning of the unit period.

  For the sales plan, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a fluctuation range of the sales plan in the sales, and the fluctuation in the virtual sales is set. The fluctuations in the sales are set as a primary sales fluctuation of an assumed primary fluctuation range and a secondary sales fluctuation of a secondary fluctuation range obtained by increasing the primary fluctuation range, and a primary fluctuation sales plan (primary fluctuation information) and A secondary variable sales plan (secondary variable information) is created.

  The primary fluctuation range of the primary sales fluctuation is for the EOL product and the next product, referring to the customer order fluctuation at the sales base 22, the sales fluctuation of the similar product in the past, and the like. It is set as appropriate in consideration of the total sales volume of the EOL product and the next product. For example, the change in sales volume is set to 1.5 times the initial plan.

  The secondary fluctuation range of the secondary sales fluctuation is based on the EOL product, referring to the expected delay in the production start time of the next product, the maximum production capacity that the production department 24 can produce, etc. It is set as appropriate in consideration of the maximum number of future sales. For example, the change in sales volume is set to twice the initial plan.

  Next, similarly, the demand plan creation unit 41 uses the primary and secondary variable sales plans, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the inbound / outbound information to generate the primary variable demand plan (primary fluctuation information) and the secondary variable demand plan (two Next fluctuation information) is created.

  The primary and secondary variable demand plans are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5. The production plan creation unit 5 creates a primary fluctuation production plan (primary fluctuation information) and a secondary fluctuation production plan (secondary fluctuation information) based on the primary and secondary fluctuation demand plans and the constraint conditions.

  Each variation and each plan is input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 through the relay program 6 and the data conversion unit 7.

  The data conversion unit 7 serving as simulation data creation means creates simulation data based on the product information and the production information, sales, demand, and production plan information stored in the ERP package 2. The plan information on sales, demand, and production refers to information on each plan at the beginning, fluctuation in primary fluctuation range (primary fluctuation), and fluctuation in secondary fluctuation width (secondary fluctuation). The simulation data is a data table obtained by converting each information data into numerical values and symbols so that the data can be used on a computer. For example, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan are coded and linked to the data of each plan to create a data table.

  A data conversion unit 7 is provided, and the data conversion unit 7 is connected to the ERP package 2, the sales plan creation unit 3, the demand plan creation unit 41, the base warehouse 42, and the production plan creation unit 5 to simulate using the latest information. Data can be created. For example, even when the design change occurs and the data of the ERP package 2 is corrected, the data conversion unit 7 can always create simulation data based on the latest data of the ERP package 2. For this reason, simulation close to an actual system and with high accuracy becomes possible. Also, by creating simulation data in advance, it is possible to reduce the load for creating simulation data when performing a simulation, which will be described later, and to perform a quick simulation.

  The model creation unit 8 sets a supply chain model on a computer based on the simulation data based on information such as a supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. The supply chain model simulates an actual supply chain on a computer as a virtual supply chain. The actual flow of goods in the supply chain, each operation, etc. can be simulated on a computer.

  The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 8 is a model that performs simulation based on the primary sales fluctuation, and the supply of products and materials is normally set by a distribution route. The material procurement is a normal procurement condition, that is, a preset procurement condition that is applied when the production plan is not changed and production is constant. In the normal procurement conditions, the number of material ordering lots, the material unit price for the ordering lot number, and the material delivery lead time are set in advance. Here, the number of lots refers to the quantity of one lot.

  Hereinafter, the supply chain model is also referred to as model 1.

  Here, there are various logistics routes such as sea mail, automobile mail, air mail, etc. Generally, the logistics route has a long logistics lead time, for example, shipping costs are low, and the logistics lead time is short, for example, air mail. And so on. For this reason, usually, a logistics lead time is long as a logistics route but a logistics cost is low. For example, a shipping service is often used as a regular logistics route. On the other hand, in the present embodiment, the distribution route (air mail or the like) that is temporarily used although the distribution lead time is short but the distribution cost is high is referred to as a temporary distribution route.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 9, the simulation period, for example, to which period the primary sales fluctuation setting is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period is to be simulated, setting of initial stock of materials and products, Set simulation conditions such as setting and changing parameters such as sales volume settings for a unit period.

  In the simulation unit 10, simulation is performed using the model 1 on a computer based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions.

  According to the simulation, the number of safety stocks (primary variable safety stock) that minimizes the stock cost of products and materials without causing shortage of the product at the time of primary sales fluctuation is calculated. In addition, the disposal amount of products and materials at the time of EOL is calculated.

  Here, the number of safety stocks (primary variable safety stock) can be converted into safety stock days (primary variable safety stock days) based on the daily production amount at the time of change.

  The result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (primary variable safety stock quantity), and if it is necessary to change the conditions and perform simulation, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the conditions again and performs the simulation. be able to. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The simulation result information is fed back as a primary variable safety stock setting value or a primary variable safety stock days setting value, stored in the database 1, and further transferred to the ERP package 2 for storage. The simulation result transferred to the ERP package 2 is taken into the supply chain 20 and reflected in actual product inventory planning, material requirement planning, order confirmation, and forecasting.

  Next, based on the information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1 by the model creation unit 12, a supply chain model for performing simulation based on the secondary sales fluctuation is set on a computer based on the simulation data. The The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 12 is referred to as model 2.

  The model 1 and the model 2 are named differently for the sake of explanation, but the structure of the supply chain is the same.

  In the model 2, material information is added to the model 1 described above. As described above, the material information is information on whether the product is a dedicated part of the product or a common part with other products including the next product, and if the common part is the common part, the other using the common part. Includes data on product type and number used.

  In addition, the model 2 has a temporary distribution route (air mail, etc.) added to the distribution route for products and materials in addition to the model 1 described above, and the product is supplied through the normal distribution route (shipping service, etc.) and the temporary distribution route. And material logistics lead time and costs, as well as base warehouse information.

  Model 2 has the function of calculating the logistics cost and the inventory cost of the product and material, the function of reducing the material safety stock of the production department 24, the safety stock of the product and the product safety stock of the base warehouse 42, and the function of reducing the waste loss during the EOL of the product. Have. Here, the disposal loss means the total cost (disposal amount) of products and materials (mainly dedicated materials) to be discarded.

  At the time of EOL of the product, if the material is common material with other products, it is possible to prevent surplus inventory by diverting it to other products, etc., but dedicated materials can be diverted to some after-sales services etc. Otherwise, it is discarded, resulting in disposal loss. In addition, unsold products have a disposal loss, but the disposal loss of the product is particularly high.

  The inventory of products that have been final shipped for a given destination, such as the inventory of products in the base warehouse 42, is to change the surplus goods to another destination even if the demand at that destination decreases. In many cases, the cost for remodeling changes, the cost of transporting products for remodeling, etc. are high and difficult. For this reason, the products that are stocked in the base warehouse 42 and become surplus products often have a disposal loss during EOL.

  However, as mentioned above, the product inventory in the production department is generally performed in the form of a single product, so the specification changes such as the destination change in form and work place. Can be easily modified at low cost. In addition, since stock in materials is stock in factories, not only can production be performed in accordance with the required destination, but materials can be easily transferred to other products.

  As described above, the product stock and the material stock in the factory can reduce the waste loss during the EOL compared to the product stock in the base warehouse 42.

  However, in the case of the inventory of the product (product single unit state) in the production department with respect to the stock of the product (final shipment state) in the base warehouse 42, it is necessary to consider the shipment lead time and the distribution lead time. In the case of stock in materials, it is necessary to consider the production lead time in addition to the shipment lead time and the distribution lead time. Here, the production lead time and the shipment lead time are usually constant and are not often changed.

  Therefore, in order to reduce the waste loss during EOL, when the product inventory and material inventory in the factory are increased compared to the product inventory in the base warehouse 42, it is necessary to optimize the logistics route including the temporary logistics route. It becomes.

  Further, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast information in the remaining life cycle of the EOL product from the beginning of the unit period to the EOL is formulated. The demand forecast information includes a schedule until the end of sales for each destination of the product. As a result, a more detailed demand forecast can be formulated. For the demand forecast information, an application program (demand forecast tool) that realizes a known demand forecast method that has been generally proposed is selected according to product characteristics, added to model 2, and used on a computer. It is formulated.

  The simulation condition setting unit 13 sets the simulation period, for example, to which period the secondary sales fluctuation is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period, etc. Set parameters such as route (temporary airmail) cost, unit period production volume setting, and simulation conditions such as change.

  In the simulation unit 14, a simulation is performed using the model 2 on a computer based on the simulation data, the simulation condition and demand prediction information, and the material information.

In the simulation, based on the secondary sales fluctuation in the unit period and the demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle, when the secondary sales fluctuation occurs, there is no product shortage and at the end of production of the product (EOL) The safety stock number (secondary variable safety stock number) of the product and material that minimizes the disposal loss (disposal cost) of the product and the material is calculated. In the calculation of the secondary variable safety stock number, among the total stock number that is the sum of the product stock number and the material stock number converted into the product stock number in the entire supply chain, In order to increase the ratio of the stock quantity, the safety stock quantity of the material, the stock location and the stock quantity of the product, that is, the stock quantity in each of the factory and the base warehouse 42 are calculated, and the temporary distribution route of the product is selected.
As in the simulation, when the proportion of the number of safety stocks in the factory is increased, compared to the stock of products (final shipment state) in the base warehouse 42, the normal distribution route copes with the sales fluctuation of the sales base. Can be difficult in time. For this reason, it is selected assuming a temporary distribution route such as air mail.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example in which a temporary logistics route (air mail) is used for product shipment from a factory in response to sales fluctuations. The completed single product is packed in a shipment state and delivered to a plurality of sales bases 22 from the factory warehouse using air mail. At this time, it may be delivered via the base warehouse 42 instead of being delivered directly to the sales base 22.

  In FIG. 6, for example, the production LT is 3 weeks (3 W), the shipping LT is 0.5 weeks (0.5 W), the normal logistics LT is 3 weeks (3 W), and the logistics LT from the base warehouse 42 to the sales base 22 ( Hereinafter, the delivery LT) is 0.5 weeks (0.5 W). In this case, the stock in the base warehouse 42 is delivered to the sales base 22 at 0.5 W. Product inventory in the factory is delivered to the sales base 22 at 4 W on the normal distribution route. The stock of parts in the factory is delivered to the sales base 22 as a product at 7 W. As described above, the base warehouse 42 and the sales base 22 each have a safety stock corresponding to the secondary sales fluctuation in order not to cause a shortage when the secondary sales fluctuate. In addition, product distribution was carried out by the usual route. For this reason, the disposal loss (disposal cost) of the product increased at the time of EOL of the product.

  On the other hand, in the present invention, waste loss is minimized during EOL as long as there is no product shortage at the time of secondary sales fluctuation, and the ratio of product inventory at the factory out of product inventory in the entire supply chain is As the number of products and materials increases, the number of safety stocks (secondary variable safety stocks) and inventory locations are calculated, and the simulation of selecting temporary logistics routes such as air mail is performed. For example, when air mail is used in the example of FIG. 6, assuming that the temporary logistics LT for air mail is 1 W, product inventory at the factory is delivered to the sales base 22 at 1 W. The stock of parts in the factory is delivered to the sales base 22 as a product at 4W. In this way, by using the temporary logistics route and increasing the proportion of the safety stock in the factory out of the safety stock in the entire supply chain, that is, the proportion of the safety stock at the base warehouse 42 and the sales base 22 is reduced. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the loss of product disposal (disposal cost) during EOL of the product.

  FIG. 7 shows an example in which a warehouse, for example, a delivery warehouse 43 is provided between the factory and the base warehouse 42. It is supplied from the distribution warehouse 43 to a plurality of base warehouses 42. Even in this case, the warehouse close to the factory 201 is the largest in the factory 201 on the upstream side of the base warehouse 42 as long as the temporary distribution route (air mail) is used and no product shortage occurs during the secondary sales fluctuation. The distribution warehouse 43 has the next largest number. As a result, it is possible to reduce a product disposal loss (disposal cost) during product EOL.

  The result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (secondary variable safety stock quantity, product inventory location and quantity, temporary logistics route), and if it is necessary to change the conditions for simulation, the simulation is performed again. A condition can be set and simulated by the condition setting unit 13. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The simulation results show that the number of safety stocks of products corresponding to fluctuations in secondary sales, the number of safety stocks at the base warehouse 42, the temporary distribution route of products, the number of safety stocks of materials including exclusive materials at the production department 24 As feedback and stored in the database 1. Further, it is transferred to and stored in the ERP package 2 and reflected in the supply chain 20.

  Reflection to the supply chain 20 may be part or all, and may be set as appropriate. The temporary distribution route is applied to the supply chain 20 when a secondary sales fluctuation occurs.

  In the simulation of the above-described models 1 and 2, the simulation is performed by extracting from the database 1 the information on the bases constituting the supply chain, the information on the communication environment, the communication environment information, and the distribution information on the distribution state. It is preferable to carry out. As a result, a simulation that is closer to the actual system and highly accurate is possible.

  Furthermore, a sales plan is created according to the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 of the supply chain 20 described above, and the simulation is performed based on the demand forecast in the life cycle of the product, assuming primary sales fluctuation and secondary sales fluctuation. A series of optimization processes for performing optimization of the supply chain 20 is performed at predetermined intervals and reflected in the supply chain 20. The predetermined cycle is the stage of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline in the life cycle of the above-mentioned product every time the actual demand fluctuation (actual sales fluctuation) of the customer 21 occurs in the supply chain 20 every certain period. Or a combination of these. The predetermined period is preferably set as appropriate in consideration of the market position, demand, characteristics, product life, etc. of the product. Moreover, it is preferable to shorten the said predetermined period in the decline period of a product, ie, near EOL.

  As described above, the proportion of product inventory at the factory increases in the product inventory of the entire supply chain based on information on demand at each point in the product life cycle, inventory of products and materials, distribution routes, etc. As described above, the simulation is performed at a predetermined cycle using the supply chain model. As a result, the stock amount of products and materials can be minimized without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations (secondary fluctuations) more than expected occur in the entire supply chain, and the product life cycle It is possible to reduce the loss of disposal of products and materials (mainly dedicated materials) when the process is completed (during EOL). In addition, in order to increase the proportion of product inventory at the factory, it is easy to respond to changes in destinations due to fluctuations in product destinations, in addition to material stocks, reducing hand loss of products. Can be planned.

  FIG. 8 shows an example of a flow chart for improving the efficiency of the supply chain using the supply chain efficiency support method shown in FIGS. It is assumed that necessary data and information are captured from the ERP package 2 in the database 1.

  In step S101, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan for the product (EOL product) and the next product according to the actual demand of the customer 21 in the supply chain 20 are created.

  In step S102, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a primary sales fluctuation, and a primary fluctuation sales plan is set.

  In step S103, a primary fluctuation demand plan and a primary fluctuation production plan are created based on the primary fluctuation sales plan.

  In step S104, the data conversion unit 7 creates simulation data based on the product information, production information, sales, demand, and production plans of the ERP package 2.

  In step S105, the model creation unit 8 creates a supply chain model (model 1) that models the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1.

  In step S106, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set for a simulation period, an opening inventory, a parameter setting such as a sales amount for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S107, the simulation unit 10 performs a simulation using the model 1 based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions. As a result of the simulation, there is no product shortage at the time of primary sales fluctuation, The number of safety stocks (primary variable safety stock) that minimizes inventory costs is calculated.

  In step S108, the result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and evaluates the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number). Further, if it is necessary to change the conditions for simulation (step S108; No), the conditions are set again in step S106 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S108; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S109.

  In step S110, the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number) is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S111, the result of the simulation (primary variable safety stock number) is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  In step S112, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a secondary sales fluctuation for the product, and a secondary fluctuation sales plan is set.

  In step S113, a secondary fluctuation demand plan and a secondary fluctuation production plan are created based on the secondary fluctuation sales plan fluctuation.

  In step S114, the model creation unit 12 creates a supply chain model (model 2) obtained by modeling the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. In the model 2, material information and a temporary distribution route are added to the model 1 described above. The model 2 has a function of reducing the waste loss at the time of product EOL. Further, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle from the beginning of the unit period to EOL is formulated.

  In step S115, the simulation condition setting unit 13 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set such as a simulation period, an initial safety stock quantity setting, a temporary logistics route (temporary air mail) cost, and a parameter setting such as a sales volume setting for a unit period.

  In step S116, a simulation using the model 2 is performed by the simulation unit 14 based on the simulation data, the simulation conditions and demand prediction information, material information, temporary logistics route information, and base warehouse information. Based on the secondary sales fluctuation in the unit period and the demand forecast information in the remaining life cycle, the simulation results in no loss of product when the secondary sales fluctuation occurs, and the loss of disposal of products and materials during EOL. The minimum number of safe stocks of products and materials is calculated. In addition, the product inventory location and quantity are calculated, and a temporary logistics route (air mail) is selected.

  In step S117, the result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and examines the simulation results (secondary variable safety stock number, product inventory location and quantity, temporary logistics route). If it is necessary to change the conditions for further simulation (step S117; No), the conditions are set again in step S115 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S117; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S118.

  In step S119, the simulation result is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S120, the simulation result is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  In this way, the simulation is performed at a predetermined cycle, and at each point in the product life cycle, even if sales fluctuation occurs, the product does not run out of stock, and the product inventory in the entire supply chain is the factory inventory. Optimize product inventory location and quantity, and product temporary distribution routes so that the proportion of product inventory increases. As a result, the number of products and materials in stock can be minimized without causing a product shortage even if sales fluctuations more than expected occur. Further, it is possible to reduce the loss of disposal of products and materials when the product life cycle ends.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Database 2 ERP package 3 Sales plan creation part 5 Production plan creation part 6 Relay program 7 Data conversion part 8, 12 Model creation part 9, 13 Simulation condition setting part 10, 14 Simulation part 11, 15 Result evaluation part 20 Supply chain 21 Customers 22 Sales bases 23 Sales departments 24 Production departments 25 Material procurement departments 26 Suppliers 41 Demand planning department 42 Base warehouse 201 Factory

Claims (8)

When the sales plan for product sales and the demand plan for product procurement shift from prospective information (forecast information) to finalized information, there may be fluctuations. An efficiency improvement method for improving the efficiency of a supply chain consisting of a plurality of operations,
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
With respect to the sales plan and the demand plan at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain, assuming a primary fluctuation range in which the sales plan and the demand plan are changed, and a secondary fluctuation range in which the primary fluctuation range is increased, Creating primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information and storing them in the storage means;
Create simulation data based on ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package product, production, and distribution route information, primary change information, and secondary change information that store product, production, distribution route, and material information Creating simulation data by means and storing it in the storage means;
In the life cycle of the product, formulating demand forecast information for the period from the beginning to the end of the remaining production and storing it in the storage means;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range is performed on a computer, and when the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range occurs, the product does not run out, and Calculating the number of safety stocks that minimize the inventory cost of products and materials;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, the demand forecast information, and the material information, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width is performed on a computer, and when the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width occurs The total number of products in the factory, out of the total number of products in the entire supply chain and the converted stock number converted to the product stock number, without causing product shortages The product, the safety stock number of the material, the stock location of the product, and the stock number are calculated and the distribution route of the product and the material is calculated. Selecting, and
A method for supporting efficiency in a supply chain, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed in a cycle for each predetermined unit period.   The primary fluctuation information includes a primary fluctuation sales plan based on the primary fluctuation width, a primary fluctuation demand plan, and a primary fluctuation production plan based on the primary fluctuation demand plan, and the secondary fluctuation information is based on the secondary fluctuation width. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, comprising a secondary variable sales plan, a secondary variable demand plan, and a secondary variable production plan based on the secondary variable demand plan.   3. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the plurality of operations include a material procurement operation, a production operation, a sales operation, a sales base operation, and a logistics operation related to each operation.   The information on the material includes material-specific / common information on whether the material is dedicated material for the product or common material with other products including the next product, the number of lots ordered, the material unit price, and the material delivery lead time. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the supply chain efficiency is improved.   The efficiency of the supply chain according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the product information includes material used for the product, the quantity of the material, a process chart of the product, and data of the configuration. Support method.   The production information includes production plan information of product production amount and delivery date, material inventory information, ordering information, delivery date information and price information, and product inventory information in production and sales. 6. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 5 above.   7. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, wherein the information on the distribution route includes a distribution lead time and a distribution cost of a distribution route of products and materials.   In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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