JP2010113393A - Efficiency enhancement support method for supply chain - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an efficiency enhancement support method of a supply chain which prevents production delay due to the deficiency of materials and shipping delay due to the shortage of product inventory even when sales plan variations exceeding initially estimated sales variations occur, and which minimizes the waste loss of the product in a time point when a product life is terminated, and the product is switched to a succeeding product. <P>SOLUTION: The efficiency enhancement support method of a supply chain includes: estimating secondary sales variations exceeding initially estimated primary sales variations; predicting demands in the residual life cycle of a product; performing simulation with a supply chain model based on the information of demands and the inventory of a product and materials; calculating the number of security inventory of the product and materials, the half-finished product stage and the place of inventory and the number of inventory of half-finished product, and the physical circulation route of the product and materials to prevent the deficiency of the product from being generated, and to minimize the waste loss of the product and exclusive materials at an EOL(End Of Life); and executing the simulation in each prescribed cycle and period on the life cycle of the product. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2010,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention does not cause a product shortage even if the sales plan fluctuates in the product supply chain, and can reduce the loss of product and material disposal that occurs at the end of the product life cycle. , Concerning supply chain chain efficiency support methods.

  By the time a product arrives at a customer, multiple operations from procurement of materials including raw materials (hereinafter also referred to as parts) to delivery to the customer, such as material procurement, production, sales and logistics (hereinafter referred to as departments) A series of business activities are performed through coordination of business activities in each business.

  The business is not always limited to one site, and is generally composed of a plurality of sites. For example, the sales department is often composed of a plurality of sales bases.

  Optimization of such a chain of business activities, the so-called supply chain (efficiency) has been studied as an important issue.

  When optimizing a supply chain where there are multiple operations, consider production information such as production volume and delivery date, procurement, production, distribution, sales, etc., and information about their bases from multiple perspectives. It becomes necessary to do. Such a thing is generally called supply chain management (SCM).

  For this reason, in order to optimize the supply chain, a method for creating a supply chain model on a computer and performing simulation on the computer to optimize the supply chain has been developed.

  In the supply chain, if there are weak parts in the chain, such as the flow of information and information, such as unclear stock quantity, the supply chain may be broken. Therefore, in order to optimize the flow of materials and information for business activities such as procurement, production, sales, and logistics of materials, it is necessary to capture the flow of materials in real time for all operations in the supply chain. . Therefore, introduction of an information system package called an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package has been promoted for the core business of a company.

  The ERP package is an integrated business package, which is package software for an enterprise information system that integrates the entire enterprise activities such as sales, production, logistics, and finance. It is intended to integrate systems built separately in each department so that they can be referred to and used by each department. Centralized management of data such as financial accounting and personnel, system upgrades and easy maintenance inspections, etc. It is possible to refer to the work of the department in real time.

  In the supply chain, sales and production plans are prepared in response to orders from customers, and materials are procured from the outside or other material suppliers (hereinafter referred to as suppliers), and production activities are carried out in the production process. .

  FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a supply chain. In FIG. 1, a customer 21 places an order for a product at a sales base 22 where the product is purchased. The sales base 22 creates a sales plan based on the order from the customer 21 and the sales forecast at the sales base 22 and places an order with the sales department 23. Here, the sales base 22 refers to a sales department in a sales department of a manufacturing company that produces a product, and a sales company such as a distributor or an agency independent of the manufacturing company.

  The sales department 23 creates a demand plan based on orders from a plurality of sales bases 22, an inventory plan in the sales department 23, and orders products from the production department 24. Here, the sales department 23 has a business that supervises orders, entry / exit information, sales information, and the like from each sales base, and has a base warehouse 42 that temporarily stocks products. Accordingly, the warehouse information is also base warehouse information including product inventory information of the base warehouse 42. The sales department 23 is often a department of the manufacturing company. A plurality of sales departments 23 may be provided for each region, for example, for each city, prefecture, etc. in the country, and for each state, county, etc. outside the country.

  The production department 24 considers the factory inventory of products and materials based on the demand plan from the sales department 23, decides the shipment of products, the production quantity at the factory, and orders the materials from the material procurement department 25. The material ordering department orders materials from a plurality of suppliers 26 and procures materials. In FIG. 1, solid arrows indicate the flow of information such as orders, and broken arrows indicate the flow of goods.

  When placing an order for the product, in general, in addition to the order confirmation information for the product, the procurement side (ordering side) notifies future supply information (forecast information) from the procurement side (ordering side) to the supply side. The forecast information is changed to product order confirmation information (confirmation information) on a predetermined date. As a result, the supply side can make a future production plan, and it is possible to suppress the occurrence of excess inventory and shortage. In the example of FIG. 1, sales prospect information and sales confirmation information from the sales base to the sales department are demand forecast information and demand confirmation information from the sales department to the production department.

  However, orders from customers do not always stay constant, and sales plans may vary. This causes demand and production plan fluctuations when changing from forecast information to confirmed information.

  The so-called product life cycle from the start of sales of products to the end of production (end of sale) is generally considered to go through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. During the decline period, the amount of demand decreases, and the product life in the product life cycle ends, that is, the end of product production, so-called End Of Life (hereinafter also abbreviated as EOL).

  Here, in the end of production and sales of a product that reaches the end of its product life (hereinafter also referred to as EOL product), in many cases, production and sales of the next product succeeding the EOL product are started, and the EOL product is Switch to the next product. However, since the next product is a new product, the production start time may fluctuate from the original plan due to sales strategy, production, quality, etc. (in many cases, it will be delayed). For this reason, sales and production fluctuations of the next product occur, and accordingly, sales and production of EOL products may also fluctuate. As described above, fluctuations in sales and production may occur at the time when the product is switched from the EOL product to the next product.

  For this reason, it is possible to prevent delays in production due to shortage of materials with long delivery lead times, so-called long delivery parts, and delays in shipment due to shortages of products, especially against fluctuations in sales plans. Materials and product inventory that can be minimized are desired.

  In addition, the stock and materials of the product at the time of EOL of the EOL product, especially the dedicated material of the corresponding product remain as surplus stock and are discarded to cause a disposal loss. For this reason, reduction of the waste loss is desired.

  In contrast to the above, calculating the error of the past forecast information, the average value of the error, and the standard deviation of the error from the past forecast information and the order received corresponding thereto, and correcting the current forecast information The calculation of the order quantity is disclosed. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1).

  In addition, it is disclosed that a supply chain model is evaluated based on an evaluation index, an optimal supply chain model is set, and an optimal supply chain is constructed based on the optimal supply chain model (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

In addition, the computer obtains time information including the time of manufacture or start of use of the product used by the customer, compares the demand forecast period with the obtained time information, and the product life expectancy comes during the demand forecast period Extracting a product is disclosed (for example, refer to Patent Document 3).
JP 2006-39802 A JP 2007-226718 A JP 2004-30002 A

  Patent Document 1 corrects the current forecast information and calculates the order quantity, so that the order receiving side can make a highly accurate order prediction, thereby preventing the occurrence of shortage and excessive inventory. It is intended to effectively suppress. However, in the case of a sudden change in order, it is impossible to predict whether or not a shortage will occur, and a shortage may occur.

  Patent Document 2 optimizes the flow of information and the flow of business activities such as procurement, production, logistics, and sales of an operating supply chain by simulating the form of the operating supply chain as a supply chain model. It is. However, the response to changes in sales and demand is not considered.

  Patent Document 3 provides a demand prediction method with excellent accuracy and efficiency for producing economically in a timely manner in accordance with the required amount. However, there was no mention of adjustment of material inventory in the production department, and there was a risk that material inventory would become excessive.

  Conventionally, in order to cope with a sudden increase in orders for products more than expected, it has been generally performed to have a large number of products and materials in stock. Such a sudden increase in the order of products may occur at the time when the product is switched from the EOL product to the next product as described above. For example, if the production start time of the next product is delayed from the original plan, the EOL product may be increased and connected to the next product. In many cases, the delay in the production start time of the next product is unexpected, and therefore the increase in production of the EOL product is often sudden.

  In addition, the products often have different specifications for each destination (sales destination). For example, for Japan and North America, the power specifications, language displayed on the device, various specifications such as various attachments are different, and for the same North America, for example, the language displayed on the device for Canada and the US Are different, but various specifications such as power supply specifications are different. In this way, different specifications for each destination increase as the sales destination of the product becomes global.

  For this reason, the above-mentioned sudden increase in orders for products may occur for a certain specification (destination), and the order may decrease for different specifications (destination).

  As described above, if a method for increasing the number of stocks is used, it is possible to reduce delay in delivery due to a shortage of products. However, the material procurement department has a large safety stock for materials (parts) having a long delivery lead time, so-called long delivery parts. In the production department, for products with a long production lead time, a lot of semi-finished products and products will be held as safety stock in the process. On the other hand, the sales department will have the product as a safety stock as a countermeasure when the product delivery time is delayed due to a material shortage in the production department. In this way, each department in the supply chain has a safety stock in a form corresponding to each department, and the entire supply chain often has an excessive number of inventory.

  The semi-finished product refers to a product before final shipment specification, that is, a product that has not been subjected to the entire production process but can be stored in that state. For example, before assembling to a predetermined destination specification in the production process, that is, before the destination is limited, before packing to the predetermined destination specification, that is, the destination is within a certain limited range Etc.

  The semi-finished product may be in a certain stage before the destination is limited, for example, a stage before assembling expensive parts common to other products.

  Although it is difficult to change the destination of a product that has been finally shipped to a destination, the destination of the semi-finished product can be changed according to the stage.

  Here, if the increase in orders from the sales base is more than expected, and if the delivery date is sufficient to be able to handle the procurement from the production department, the safety stock in the sales department mentioned above is the expected safety stock. There is no problem with this, but in general there are many cases where a normal delivery date is used.

  For this reason, the above-mentioned safety stock in the sales department increased due to sales fluctuations in addition to the quantity corresponding to the difference between the delivery lead time (LT) and the distribution lead time (LT) in procurement from the production department and the delivery date. Often the quantity takes into account minutes.

  The shipping LT is the time (days) from when the sales department places an order to the production department and the product is shipped from the production department. The logistics LT is the product shipped from the production department to the sales department (base warehouse). This is the time (days) until arrival. Also, the quantity corresponding to the difference between the sum of the shipping LT and the logistics LT and the delivery date is, for example, 2 days for the shipping LT, 5 days for the logistics LT, and 4 days for the delivery date. The quantity of minutes. This is the case where the order and the order are on the same day, and if they are different, it may be necessary for the number of days.

  In addition, as described above, the life cycle of a product is generally considered to end the product life through the stages of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. Hereinafter, the time when the product life ends is also referred to as EOL time.

  For this reason, as described above, if each department has a certain safety stock, materials, particularly materials dedicated to the product and unsold products may remain as surplus stock during EOL. In many cases, the dedicated material and the excess product inventory are discarded and become a disposal loss. In particular, product disposal loss is expensive.

  In addition, during the decline of the product life cycle, the number of products issued from the sales department (base warehouse) generally decreases, and the sales department also reduces the product inventory, and the product to the production department. We will also reduce orders. However, the material procurement department often has a large amount of material safety stock as a response to a sudden increase in product orders. Furthermore, for materials with long delivery lead times, orders may be placed as usual with information before the demand declines. Long-delivery parts often have high unit prices, such as electronic parts, and waste loss may increase.

  As described above, the change of the safety stock is slow when it is performed at the time of demand fluctuation, and as described above, the surplus stock increases and the disposal loss may increase.

  In Patent Documents 1 to 3, the safety stock of the dedicated materials and products at each stage of the life cycle is not considered, and it is difficult to reduce the loss of disposal of the dedicated materials and products at the time of the EOL. Met.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above situation, and prevents delays in production due to a shortage of materials and shipment delays due to a shortage of product inventory even if a sales plan fluctuation with a sudden increase in sales exceeding the initially assumed fluctuation in sales occurs. An object of the present invention is to provide a supply chain efficiency support method capable of minimizing the loss of disposal of products and dedicated materials at the end of product life.

The above object is achieved by the following method.
1. When the sales plan for product sales and the demand plan for product procurement shift from prospective information (forecast information) to finalized information, there may be fluctuations. An efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of a supply chain consisting of a plurality of business operations, wherein a supply chain model that models the supply chain is set on a computer, and the beginning of a unit period in the supply chain For the sales plan and the demand plan, assuming a primary fluctuation range in which the sales plan and the demand plan are changed, and a secondary fluctuation range in which the primary fluctuation range is increased, primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information are obtained. A step of creating and storing the information in the storage means, and ERP (Enterpr) storing information on products, production, distribution routes, materials, and semi-finished products se Resource Planning) creating simulation data by the simulation data creating means based on the product, production, and distribution route information of the package and the primary fluctuation information and the secondary fluctuation information, and storing the simulation data in the storage means; , The step of formulating demand forecast data in the period from the beginning to the end of the remaining production of the product, and the supply chain model corresponding to the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range on the computer based on the simulation data Performing a simulation and calculating a safety stock number that minimizes inventory costs of products, semi-finished products, and materials without causing shortage of the product when the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range occurs, and In the supply chain model, the simulation data, the demand forecast Based on the measurement data, information on the material and the semi-finished product, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width is performed on a computer, and a product shortage occurs when the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width occurs. And calculating the product, the safety stock number of the material, the semi-finished product stage and the inventory location and the number of the product, and the material and the material distribution route when the production cost of the product and the material is minimized. And a series of processing in the above steps is performed in a cycle for each predetermined unit period.
2. The primary fluctuation information includes a primary fluctuation sales plan based on the primary fluctuation width, a primary fluctuation demand plan, and a primary fluctuation production plan based on the primary fluctuation demand plan, and the secondary fluctuation information is based on the secondary fluctuation width. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to 1, comprising a secondary variable sales plan, a secondary variable demand plan, and a secondary variable production plan based on the secondary variable demand plan.
3. 3. The supply chain efficiency according to claim 1, wherein the information on the semi-finished product includes information on a semi-finished product stage of the semi-finished product and production lead time from the semi-finished product stage to completion as the product. Support method.
4). 4. The supply chain efficiency support according to any one of 1 to 3, wherein the plurality of operations include material procurement operations, production operations, sales operations, sales base operations, and logistics operations related to each operation. Method.
5). The material information includes material-specific / common information regarding whether the material is a dedicated material for the product or a common material with other products including the next product, the number of lots ordered, the material unit price, and the material delivery lead time. 5. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 4, characterized in that:
6). 6. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 5, wherein the product information includes data used for the product, the quantity of the material, a process chart of the product, and data of the configuration. .
7). The production information includes production plan information of product production volume and delivery date, stock information of material, ordering information, delivery date information and price information, semi-finished product inventory information of semi-finished product and inventory location, production and sales information. 7. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 6, wherein product inventory information is included.
8). 8. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 7, wherein the distribution route information includes a distribution lead time and a distribution cost of distribution routes of products, semi-finished products, and materials.
9. In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. 9. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of 1 to 8.

  According to the above, the simulation is performed at a predetermined cycle, and based on the information of demand at each point in the life cycle of the product, the stock of products and materials, the semi-finished product stage, the stock location and the number of stock, By optimizing the temporary distribution route of products and the number of products in stock at the base warehouse and production department, the number of products in stock can be minimized without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations exceed expectations. It can be. Thereby, it is possible to reduce the loss of product disposal when the product life cycle ends. It is also possible to reduce the disposal loss of dedicated materials.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings, but the present invention is not limited thereto.

  FIG. 6 is a table showing an example of changes in order forecast information (hereinafter also referred to as forecast) and order confirmation information (hereinafter also referred to as order confirmation). FIG. 6 shows an example in which the order interval, the forecast transmission interval, and the delivery lead time are set to one week. These intervals are appropriately set depending on the types of products and materials, and are, for example, two weeks or one month. The intervals may be different. In FIG. 6, the order confirmation is denoted as PO and the forecast as FC.

  In accordance with the ordering plan prepared by the first order, PO1 for order confirmation is ordered in one week of the planned ordering, and a forward FC1 is transmitted. PO1 is delivered in 2 weeks. In 2 weeks, FC1 is changed to PO2 and an order is placed, and a forecast FC2 is transmitted. PO2 is delivered in 3 weeks. The same goes for the following. FIG. 6 shows an example in which delivery is completed in nine weeks.

  In the example of FIG. 6, the ordering is performed by creating a material requirement plan by MRP (Material Requirements Planning) or the like based on the production plan every week.

  Further, order information such as reservation information (reservation) may be provided between forecast and order confirmation. In this case, as an example, Forecast is not a commitment to purchase materials, and reservation is a commitment to purchase, but is not a commitment, and order confirmation may be a commitment to both purchase and timing.

  Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 show material ordering to production, including demand and production plans where product ordering information shifts from forecast to order confirmation and demand and production fluctuations may occur due to sales plan fluctuations. It is a block diagram showing one embodiment of a supply chain efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of the supply chain of a product that reaches a customer (product shipping destination) through a process. The block diagram is divided into FIGS. 2, 3 and 4 for the purpose of illustration, but FIGS. 2, 3 and 4 are integrated. For the supply chain 20, refer to FIG.

  In FIG. 3, the database 1 is a storage means for storing the various data and information described above, and the data and information of the ERP package 2 are also necessary via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7 which is a simulation data creation means. In response. In addition, simulation data created by the data converter 7 described later is also captured. Of the data and information of the ERP package 2, data and information that are not used by the data conversion unit 7 may be directly taken into the database 1 via the relay program 6 without using the data conversion unit 7.

  The ERP package 2 is an integrated business package, has an integrated database, and stores product information, production information, distribution route information, material information, semi-product information, and the like. The product information includes materials used for the product, the quantity of the material, a process chart of the product, data of the configuration, and the like. The production information includes product production volume, production lead time, delivery date information, material delivery route, delivery lead time, inventory, ordering, delivery date, price information, semi-finished product quantity, inventory location information, Product inventory information for production and sales. The distribution route information includes information on the distribution lead time and the distribution cost for each product and material in the normal distribution route and the temporary distribution route, which are used for the shipment of products from the production department 24 to the base warehouse 42 and material procurement. . The material information includes information on whether the material is a dedicated material for the product or a common material with other products including the next product, and the semi-finished product information includes a semi-finished product stage of the semi-finished product and the semi-finished product. Information on production lead time from the stage to completion as the product is included.

  The semi-finished product stage is preset and stored in the ERP package 2. For example, as described above, the semi-finished product stage is a final state where destinations are not limited at all, a thing before assembling expensive parts common to other products before the final state, and a destination change is constant. Stages such as those limited in scope. Accordingly, the remaining production lead time for the product at each stage is determined. Most of the semi-finished products are stocked in the production department, but if the change in destination is limited to a certain range, it may be stocked in the base warehouse 42.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 creates a sales plan based on the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain 20. The sales plan is created for the EOL product and the next product after the sales of the next product are started.

  The sales plan creation unit 3 is provided in, for example, a sales management department in the sales base 22. The sales plan is transmitted to the demand plan creation unit 41. The unit period is a predetermined period in which a product production / sales plan is created, and production / sales are carried out by continuing the unit period. For example, it is set as appropriate according to the type, form, etc. of the product, such as every month, every three months, etc. The unit period is not always a fixed length. For example, the unit period may be changed at each stage of the product life cycle, introduction period, growth period, maturity period, decline period, and the like. Alternatively, the actual demand may vary every time.

  The demand plan creation unit 41 creates a demand plan based on the sales plan, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the entry / exit information, and taking into account sales fluctuations. Further, it is determined in which stage of the product life cycle the EOL product is assumed in advance, and EOL stage information is created. The demand plan includes forecast information and confirmation information for EOL products, and production request plan information for the next product.

  The base warehouse 42 temporarily stores the product delivered from the production department 24 and ships the product in response to a shipping request (order received) from the sales base 22. Information on the base warehouse 42 includes product inventory information, receipt / shipment information, and the like. The demand plan creation unit 41 and the base warehouse 42 are provided in the sales department 23, for example, the procurement management department.

  The demand plan and EOL stage information are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5.

  Based on the demand plan, the production plan creation unit 5 creates production plans for the EOL product and the next product in consideration of the constraints of material procurement, factories and logistics, and the product inventory status in the production department 24. Restrictions on material procurement include parts production capacity and material delivery lead time. The factory constraint conditions include production lead time, process maximum production capacity, process production capacity switching condition, and the like. Distribution restrictions include product shipment and distribution lead time, distribution capability, warehouse inventory capability, and the like. The production plan creation unit 5 is provided, for example, in the production management department in the production department 24.

  The sales plan, demand plan, EOL stage information, base warehouse, and production plan information are input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 via the relay program 6 and the data converter 7. These plans and information are applied to the supply chain 20 of the target product at the beginning of the unit period.

  For the sales plan, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a fluctuation range of the sales plan in the sales, and the fluctuation in the virtual sales is set. The fluctuations in the sales are set as a primary sales fluctuation of an assumed primary fluctuation range and a secondary sales fluctuation of a secondary fluctuation range obtained by increasing the primary fluctuation range, and a primary fluctuation sales plan (primary fluctuation information) and A secondary variable sales plan (secondary variable information) is created.

  The primary fluctuation range of the primary sales fluctuation is for the EOL product and the next product, referring to the customer order fluctuation at the sales base 22, the sales fluctuation of the similar product in the past, and the like. It is set as appropriate in consideration of the total sales volume of the EOL product and the next product. For example, the change in sales volume is set to twice the initial plan.

  The secondary fluctuation range of the secondary sales fluctuation is based on the EOL product, referring to the expected delay in the production start time of the next product, the maximum production capacity that the production department 24 can produce, etc. It is set as appropriate in consideration of the maximum number of future sales. For example, the change in sales volume is set to three times the initial plan.

  Next, similarly, the demand plan creation unit 41 uses the primary and secondary variable sales plans, the product inventory information of the base warehouse 42, and the inbound / outbound information to generate the primary variable demand plan (primary fluctuation information) and the secondary variable demand plan (two Next fluctuation information) is created.

  The primary and secondary variable demand plans are transmitted to the production plan creation unit 5. The production plan creation unit 5 creates a primary fluctuation production plan (primary fluctuation information) and a secondary fluctuation production plan (secondary fluctuation information) based on the primary and secondary fluctuation demand plans and the constraint conditions.

  Each variation and each plan is input to the database 1 and the ERP package 2 through the relay program 6 and the data conversion unit 7.

  The data conversion unit 7 serving as simulation data creation means creates simulation data based on the product information and the production information, sales, demand, and production plan information stored in the ERP package 2. The plan information on sales, demand, and production refers to information on each plan at the beginning, fluctuation in primary fluctuation range (primary fluctuation), and fluctuation in secondary fluctuation width (secondary fluctuation). The simulation data is a data table obtained by converting each information data into numerical values and symbols so that the data can be used on a computer. For example, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan are coded and linked to the data of each plan to create a data table. Further, for example, the semi-finished product stage and its production lead time, the number of stocks, and the stock location can be created as a semi-finished product data table.

  A data conversion unit 7 is provided, and the data conversion unit 7 is connected to the ERP package 2, the sales plan creation unit 3, the demand plan creation unit 41, the base warehouse 42, and the production plan creation unit 5 to simulate using the latest information. Data can be created. For example, even when the design change occurs and the data of the ERP package 2 is corrected, the data conversion unit 7 can always create simulation data based on the latest data of the ERP package 2. For this reason, simulation close to an actual system and with high accuracy becomes possible. Also, by creating simulation data in advance, it is possible to reduce the load for creating simulation data when performing a simulation, which will be described later, and to perform a quick simulation.

  The model creation unit 8 sets a supply chain model on a computer based on the simulation data based on information such as a supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. The supply chain model simulates an actual supply chain on a computer as a virtual supply chain. The actual flow of goods in the supply chain, each operation, etc. can be simulated on a computer.

  The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 8 is a model that performs a simulation based on the primary sales fluctuation, and the material procurement is a normal procurement condition, that is, the production plan is not changed and the production is kept constant. The procurement conditions set in advance are used. In the normal procurement conditions, the number of material ordering lots, the material unit price for the ordering lot number, and the material delivery lead time are set in advance.

  Here, the number of lots refers to the quantity of one lot.

  In addition, supply of products and materials is usually set by a distribution route. Hereinafter, the supply chain model is also referred to as model 1.

  Here, there are various logistics routes such as sea mail, automobile mail, air mail, etc. Generally, the logistics route has a long logistics lead time, for example, shipping costs are low, and the logistics lead time is short, for example, air mail. And so on. For this reason, usually, a logistics lead time is long as a logistics route but a logistics cost is low. For example, a shipping service is often used as a regular logistics route. On the other hand, in the present embodiment, the distribution route (air mail or the like) that is temporarily used although the distribution lead time is short but the distribution cost is high is referred to as a temporary distribution route.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 9, the simulation period, for example, to which period the sales fluctuation is set, or to which unit period after the initial unit period, etc., and the initial inventory of materials, semi-finished products, products, etc. Setting of simulation conditions such as setting, setting of parameters such as setting of sales amount of unit period, and the like are performed.

  In the simulation unit 10, simulation is performed using the model 1 on a computer based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions.

  By the simulation, the number of safety stocks (primary variable safety stock) that minimizes the stock cost of products, semi-finished products, and materials without causing shortage of the products at the time of primary sales fluctuation is calculated. In addition, the disposal amount of products and materials at the time of EOL is calculated.

  Here, the number of safety stocks (primary variable safety stock) can be converted into safety stock days (primary variable safety stock days) based on the daily production amount at the time of change.

  The result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and examines the result of the simulation (primary variable safety stock quantity), and if it is necessary to change the conditions and perform simulation, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the conditions again and performs the simulation. be able to. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The simulation result information is fed back as a primary variable safety stock setting value or a primary variable safety stock days setting value, stored in the database 1, and further transferred to the ERP package 2 for storage. The simulation result transferred to the ERP package 2 is taken into the supply chain 20 and reflected in actual product inventory planning, material requirement planning, order confirmation, and forecasting.

  Next, based on the information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1 by the model creation unit 12, a supply chain model for performing simulation based on the secondary sales fluctuation is set on a computer based on the simulation data. The The supply chain model set by the model creation unit 12 is referred to as model 2.

  The model 1 and the model 2 are named differently for the sake of explanation, but the structure of the supply chain is the same.

  In the model 2, material information and semi-finished product information are added to the model 1 described above. The material information is information on whether it is a dedicated part of the product for each material or a common part with another product including the next product, and if it is the common part, the model of the other product that uses the common part Contains data on the number used. The semi-finished product information includes a semi-finished product stage of the semi-finished product and information on a production lead time from the semi-finished product stage to completion as the product.

  In addition, the model 2 has a temporary distribution route (air mail, etc.) added to the distribution route for products and materials in addition to the model 1 described above, and the product is supplied through the normal distribution route (shipping service, etc.) and the temporary distribution route. And material logistics lead time and costs, as well as base warehouse information.

  Model 2 is a function for calculating the logistics cost and the inventory cost of products and materials, a function for reducing the material safety stock of the production department 24, a product safety stock and a product safety stock of the base warehouse 42, and a function of reducing the waste loss during EOL of the product. Have

  The waste loss reduction function can cope with assumed secondary sales fluctuations and minimizes the product waste loss at the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24 at the time of product EOL, and the disposal loss of dedicated materials at the production department 24. To calculate the safety stock number of products and the safety stock number of dedicated materials.

  Here, the disposal loss means the disposal amount of the discarded products and dedicated materials. At the time of EOL of the product, if the material is common material with other products, it is possible to prevent surplus inventory by diverting it to other products, etc., but dedicated materials can be diverted to some after-sales services etc. Otherwise, it is discarded, resulting in disposal loss. In addition, the unsold product has a disposal loss, but as described above, the disposal loss of the product is particularly expensive.

  Here, as mentioned above, it is difficult to change the surplus goods to other destinations even if the demand at the destination is reduced, as for the inventory of the products that are in the final shipment state for a predetermined destination. is there. However, the semi-finished product before the final shipment state can change the destination according to the stage.

  For this reason, since the stock in a semi-finished product can be matched with the destination by the sales trend of each destination, the stock in a product can be reduced and it can lead to the reduction of the disposal loss of a product. Also, depending on the stage of the semi-finished product, it may be diverted to other products including the next product. The semi-finished product is usually stocked in the production department 24. Depending on the stage, the semi-finished product can be stocked in another department, for example, the base warehouse 42.

  However, the inventory of semi-finished products needs to take into consideration the production lead time until the product is completed, the distribution route for shipment after the product is completed, and the distribution lead time. The inventory location of semi-finished products also needs to be considered according to the stage. As described above, in order to reduce the waste loss of the product, in order to stock the semi-finished product, it is necessary to optimize the semi-finished product stage, the semi-finished product inventory location and quantity, and the temporary distribution route of the product.

  Furthermore, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle of the EOL product from the beginning of the unit period to the EOL is formulated. For the demand forecast data, an application program (demand forecasting tool) that realizes a known demand forecasting method that has been generally proposed is selected according to product characteristics, added to model 2, and used on a computer. It is formulated.

  In the simulation condition setting unit 13, the simulation period, for example, to which period the secondary sales fluctuation is set, or to which unit period after the first unit period, etc. Set the simulation conditions such as stage, temporary logistics route (temporary airmail) cost, parameters such as production volume setting per unit period, etc.

  In the simulation unit 14, a simulation is performed using the model 2 on a computer based on the simulation data, the simulation condition and demand prediction data, the material information, and the semi-finished product information.

  Based on the secondary sales fluctuation in the unit period and demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle in the simulation, the base warehouse 42 and the production department at the time of EOL without causing a product shortage when the secondary sales fluctuation occurs. The semi-finished product stage and inventory location and quantity of the semi-finished product at which the product disposal loss at 24 is minimized, the temporary distribution route of the product, and the safety stock quantity of the product in the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24 are calculated. At the same time, the safety stock number of materials and temporary logistics routes are calculated.

  The result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and evaluates the simulation results (half-finished product stage and inventory location and number of products, inventory number of products and special materials, temporary logistics route), and further simulation is necessary under different conditions. If there is, the simulation condition setting unit 13 can set the conditions again to perform the simulation. Thereby, the range of evaluation can be expanded.

  The information of the simulation result includes the semi-finished product stage and the stock location and the stock quantity of the semi-finished product corresponding to the secondary sales fluctuation, the minimum safe stock quantity of the product in the base warehouse 42, the temporary logistics route, and the dedicated material for the production department 24. It is fed back as a safety stock number of materials including materials and a temporary logistics route for procurement, stored in the database 1, and further transferred to the ERP package 2 for storage. Furthermore, it is reflected in the supply chain 20. Reflection to the supply chain 20 may be part or all, and may be set as appropriate. The temporary distribution route is applied to the supply chain 20 when a secondary production change occurs.

  In the simulation of the above-described models 1 and 2, the simulation is performed by extracting from the database 1 the information on the bases constituting the supply chain, the information on the communication environment, the communication environment information, and the distribution information on the distribution state. It is preferable to carry out. As a result, a simulation that is closer to the actual system and highly accurate is possible.

  Furthermore, a sales plan is created according to the actual demand (order) of the customer 21 of the supply chain 20 described above, and the simulation is performed based on the demand forecast in the life cycle of the product, assuming primary sales fluctuation and secondary sales fluctuation. A series of optimization processes for performing optimization of the supply chain 20 is performed at predetermined intervals and reflected in the supply chain 20. The predetermined cycle is the stage of introduction, growth, maturity, and decline in the life cycle of the above-mentioned product every time the actual demand fluctuation (actual sales fluctuation) of the customer 21 occurs in the supply chain 20 every certain period. Or a combination of these. The predetermined period is preferably set as appropriate in consideration of the market position, demand, characteristics, product life, etc. of the product. Moreover, it is preferable to shorten the said predetermined period in the decline period of a product, ie, near EOL.

  In this way, the above simulation is performed at a predetermined cycle, and based on demand information, product and material inventory at each point in the product life cycle, the semi-finished product stage, the inventory location and the number of products, By optimizing the temporary distribution route, and the number of products in stock at the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24, the number of products in stock can be minimized without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations exceed expectations. It can be. Thereby, it is possible to reduce the loss of product disposal when the product life cycle ends. It is also possible to reduce the disposal loss of dedicated materials.

  FIG. 6 shows an example of a flowchart for improving the efficiency of the supply chain using the supply chain efficiency support method shown in FIGS. It is assumed that necessary data and information are captured from the ERP package 2 in the database 1.

  In step S101, a sales plan, a demand plan, and a production plan for the product (EOL product) and the next product according to the actual demand of the customer 21 in the supply chain 20 are created.

  In step S102, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a primary sales fluctuation, and a primary fluctuation sales plan is set.

  In step S103, a primary fluctuation demand plan and a primary fluctuation production plan are created based on the primary fluctuation sales plan.

  In step S104, the data conversion unit 7 creates simulation data based on the product information, production information, sales, demand, and production plans of the ERP package 2.

  In step S105, the model creation unit 8 creates a supply chain model (model 1) that models the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1.

  In step S106, the simulation condition setting unit 9 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set for a simulation period, an opening inventory, a parameter setting such as a sales amount for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S107, the simulation unit 10 performs a simulation using the model 1 based on the simulation data and the simulation conditions. As a result of the simulation, the product and the semi-finished product do not cause a product shortage at the time of primary sales fluctuation. The number of safety stocks (primary variable safety stock) that minimizes the stock cost of materials is calculated.

  In step S108, the result evaluation unit 11 evaluates and evaluates the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number). Further, if it is necessary to change the conditions for simulation (step S108; No), the conditions are set again in step S106 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S108; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S109.

  In step S110, the simulation result (primary variable safety stock number) is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S111, the result of the simulation (the number of variable safety stocks) is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  In step S112, the demand plan creation unit 41 assumes a secondary sales fluctuation for the product, and a secondary fluctuation sales plan is set.

  In step S113, a secondary fluctuation demand plan and a secondary fluctuation production plan are created based on the secondary fluctuation sales plan fluctuation.

  In step S114, the model creation unit 12 creates a supply chain model (model 2) obtained by modeling the supply chain on the computer based on information such as the supply chain configuration stored in the database 1. In the model 2, material information, semi-finished product information, and a temporary logistics route are added to the model 1 described above. The model 2 has a function of reducing the waste loss at the time of product EOL. Further, with reference to the above-mentioned EOL stage information, demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle from the beginning of the unit period to EOL is formulated.

  In step S115, the simulation condition setting unit 13 sets the simulation conditions by the person in charge. The simulation conditions are set such as a simulation period, an initial safety stock quantity setting, a semi-finished product stage, a temporary logistics route (temporary air mail) cost, a parameter setting such as a sales volume setting for a unit period, and the like.

  In step S116, a simulation using the model 2 is performed in the simulation unit 14 based on the simulation data, the simulation condition and demand prediction data, the material information, and the semi-finished product information. Based on the secondary sales fluctuation in the unit period and the demand forecast data in the remaining life cycle, the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24 at the time of EOL without causing a product shortage when the secondary sales fluctuation occurs. The semi-finished product stage and the inventory location and the number of products, the temporary distribution route of the product, and the number of products in the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24 are calculated. At the same time, the safety stock number of materials and temporary logistics routes are calculated.

  In step S117, the result evaluation unit 15 evaluates and evaluates the result of the simulation (the semi-finished product stage, the inventory location and the inventory quantity, the inventory quantity of the product and the dedicated material, and the temporary logistics route). If it is necessary to change the conditions for further simulation (step S117; No), the conditions are set again in step S115 and the simulation is performed. If re-simulation is not required (step S117; Yes), the simulation result is stored in the database 1 in step S118.

  In step S119, the simulation result is transferred from the database 1 to the ERP package 2 and reflected in the data and information of the ERP package 2.

  In step S120, the simulation result is reflected in the supply chain 20.

  In this way, the above simulation is performed at a predetermined cycle, and based on demand information, product and material inventory at each point in the product life cycle, the semi-finished product stage, the inventory location and the number of products, By optimizing the temporary distribution route, and the number of products in stock at the base warehouse 42 and the production department 24, the number of products in stock can be minimized without causing product shortages even if sales fluctuations exceed expectations. It can be. Thereby, it is possible to reduce the loss of product disposal when the product life cycle ends. It is also possible to reduce the disposal loss of dedicated materials.

It is the schematic which shows an example of a supply chain. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of the efficiency improvement support method of the supply chain which concerns on this invention. An example of the flowchart which aims at the efficiency improvement of the supply chain which concerns on this invention is shown. It is a figure which shows transition of forecast information and material order confirmation information.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Database 2 ERP package 3 Sales plan creation part 41 Demand plan creation part 42 Base warehouse 43 Supplier information creation part 5 Production plan creation part 6 Relay program 7 Data conversion part 8, 12 Model creation part 9, 13 Simulation condition setting part 10, 14 Simulation Department 11, 15 Result Evaluation Department 20 Supply Chain 21 Customer 22 Sales Base 23 Sales Department 24 Production Department 25 Material Procurement Department 26 Supplier

Claims (9)

When the sales plan for product sales and the demand plan for product procurement shift from prospective information (forecast information) to finalized information, there may be fluctuations. An efficiency support method for improving the efficiency of a supply chain consisting of a plurality of operations leading to
Setting a supply chain model that models the supply chain on a computer;
With respect to the sales plan and the demand plan at the beginning of the unit period in the supply chain, assuming a primary fluctuation range in which the sales plan and the demand plan are changed, and a secondary fluctuation range in which the primary fluctuation range is increased, Creating primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information and storing them in the storage means;
Based on each product, production, and distribution route information of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) package that stores information on products, production, distribution routes, materials, and semi-finished products, and primary fluctuation information and secondary fluctuation information, Creating simulation data with the simulation data creating means and storing it in the storage means;
Formulating demand forecast data in the period from the beginning to the end of the remaining production of the product;
In the supply chain model, based on the simulation data, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range is performed on a computer, and when the fluctuation of the primary fluctuation range occurs, the product does not run out, and the product Calculating the number of safety stocks that minimizes inventory costs for semi-finished products and materials,
In the supply chain model, based on each information of the simulation data, the demand forecast data, the material and the semi-finished product, a simulation corresponding to the fluctuation of the secondary fluctuation width is performed on a computer, and the secondary fluctuation width Products that do not cause product shortages when fluctuations occur, and at the end of product production, the disposal costs of the products and materials are minimized. Calculating the number, product and material distribution route,
A method for supporting efficiency in a supply chain, wherein a series of processing in the steps is performed in a cycle for each predetermined unit period. The primary fluctuation information includes a primary fluctuation sales plan based on the primary fluctuation width, a primary fluctuation demand plan, and a primary fluctuation production plan based on the primary fluctuation demand plan, and the secondary fluctuation information is based on the secondary fluctuation width. 2. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, comprising a secondary variable sales plan, a secondary variable demand plan, and a secondary variable production plan based on the secondary variable demand plan. 3. The supply chain according to claim 1, wherein the information on the semi-finished product includes a semi-finished product stage of the semi-finished product and information on a production lead time from the semi-finished product stage to completion of the product. Efficiency improvement support method. The supply chain efficiency according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the plurality of operations include material procurement operations, production operations, sales operations, sales base operations, and logistics operations related to each operation. Support method. The information on the material includes material-specific / common information on whether the material is dedicated material for the product or common material with other products including the next product, the number of lots ordered, the material unit price, and the material delivery lead time. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein: The efficiency of the supply chain according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the product information includes material used for the product, the quantity of the material, a process chart of the product, and data of the configuration. Support method. The production information includes production plan information of product production volume and delivery date, stock information of material, ordering information, delivery date information and price information, semi-finished product inventory information of semi-finished product and inventory location, production and sales information. 7. The supply chain efficiency support method according to claim 1, further comprising product inventory information. The supply chain efficiency support according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the information on the distribution route includes distribution lead time and distribution cost of distribution routes of products, semi-finished products, and materials. Method. In the simulation, the supply chain base information stored in the storage means, information related to the communication environment status, communication environment information, and distribution information related to the distribution status are extracted and added to perform the simulation. The supply chain efficiency support method according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

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