JP2008140032A - Risk analysis method, risk analysis system, and risk analysis program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To rapidly analyze the risk of a project. <P>SOLUTION: An analysis part 18 of a server 13 inputs an instruction showing a lagging indicator to be evaluated from a user terminal device 11, extracts a lagging indicator ID of the lagging indicator shown by the instruction based on a project progress management table stored in a project progress management table storage part 171, extracts a risk ID associated with the lagging indicator ID based on a risk management table stored in a risk management table storage part 172, extracts an index value and a leading indicator coefficient associated with the risk ID from a leading indicator table stored in a leading indicator table storage part 173, and calculates a degree of risk showing the magnitude of risk in the lagging indicator to be evaluated based thereon. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a risk analysis method, a risk analysis system, and a risk analysis program.

Conventionally, when managing the activity progress of a project, the risk has been evaluated by analyzing the progress of the project progress (see, for example, Patent Document 1). This technology manages the progress of the entire software project. As software configuration information, quantitative information (number of steps, scale) and qualitative information (difficulty, outlook) are classified hierarchically, and configuration information. The plan is managed and the progress is managed precisely by managing the results in units.
JP-A-8-234777 (paragraph numbers 0009 to 0038)

  However, in the technique of Patent Document 1, in order to discover a risk that affects the progress of an ongoing project, it is necessary to perform a detailed performance analysis / prediction based on the hierarchical structure of the project. There was a problem that it took. In other words, in order to determine the risk, the deliverables and quality (number of programs, defect density) are tabulated based on the hierarchical structure, and the predicted results are calculated by statistical analysis of the tabulated results. The person in charge of the project needed to understand the current problems of the project and give instructions for countermeasures. However, when the results of the aggregation are known, the project status (changes in priority promotion indicators, lack of resources, etc.) has changed due to new factors that occurred within the aggregation period (specification changes due to customer requests, hospitalization of staff, etc.) In many cases, there were discrepancies between the contents that should be dealt with at present and the contents of the aggregate analysis results and predictions, making it difficult to take appropriate measures.

  In addition, even if the project cycle is shortened and the project management is performed to analyze and predict the results, the project management work increases as the cycle is shortened. The project management was virtually impossible to implement.

  The present invention has been made to solve the problems of the prior art, and its purpose is to promptly analyze the risk of a project.

  In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention associates in advance a lagging indicator that is an item for evaluating the progress of a project and a preceding indicator that indicates an event that causes a risk when the item of the lagging indicator occurs. From the leading index value indicating the degree of occurrence of the event of the leading index, the risk level indicating the magnitude of the risk occurring in the lagging index is calculated.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to quickly analyze a risk from a leading index that becomes a factor affecting the progress of a project.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[Configuration of project progress management system]
First, a system including a project progress management system 14 according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of an overall system configuration including a project progress management system of the present invention. Here, a case where a risk of a software development project is evaluated will be described as an example, but the present invention can be applied to risk evaluation in various projects.

  The user terminal device 11 transmits information input by the user to the server 13 via a network 12 such as the Internet or an intranet, and displays information received from the server 13 via the network 12 using a web browser. Etc. are displayed. Here, the user terminal device 11 is connected to the server 13 via the network 12 and is configured to be able to transmit and receive information between the user terminal device 11 and the server 13. The user terminal device 11 is, for example, a general computer, and includes an input device (not shown) such as a keyboard and a mouse, an output device such as a computer display, a storage device (not shown) such as a memory, and a CPU. Etc., and a processing device (not shown). The user terminal device 11 is equipped with a web browser which is a display interface. Furthermore, here, the user terminal apparatus 11 is arranged and displayed in advance on the display screen with an icon capable of instructing activation of the present system.

  The server 13 calculates based on information received from the user terminal device 11 via the network 12 and transmits the calculation result to the user terminal device 11 via the network 12. The server 13 includes a data storage device (not shown) composed of a hard disk and the like, and an arithmetic device (not shown) composed of a CPU and a memory. The program (risk analysis program) of the project progress management system 14 of the present invention is stored in a data storage device in the server 13 and is executed by the CPU on the memory in the server 13, so that the project progress management system 14 Function occurs. Hereinafter, the project progress management system 14 will be described in detail.

  The project progress management system (risk analysis system) 14 analyzes risks that occur during the progress of the project and manages the progress of the project activities. The project progress management system 14 includes an input / output unit 15, a master management unit 16, a data management unit 17, and an analysis unit 18.

  The input / output unit 15 is an interface for inputting / outputting data transmitted from the user terminal device 11 via the network 12 and data transmitted to the user terminal device 11. The input / output unit 15 includes an input analysis processing unit 151 and an output analysis processing unit 152.

  The input analysis processing unit 151 inputs data transmitted from the user terminal device 11 via the network 12 and outputs the data to the analysis unit 18. The output analysis processing unit 152 inputs the data generated by the analysis unit 18 and transmits it to the user terminal device 11 via the network 12.

  The master management unit 16 manages and stores a character string used when the project risk evaluation result generated by the analysis unit 18 is displayed on the display of the user terminal device 11. The master management unit 16 includes a lagging index name master table storage unit 161, a risk category name master table storage unit 162, a preceding index name master table storage unit 163, and a risk status master table storage unit 164.

  The lagging index name master table storage unit 161 stores a lagging index name master table, which is a table for storing a plurality of lagging index names, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The lagging index name master table stored here stores information on the names of lagging indices that are candidates for evaluation when the risk is evaluated by the analysis unit 18, and the risk evaluation result by the analysis unit 18 is stored in the user. When the screen to be displayed on the display of the terminal device 11 is generated, it is referred to and used by the leading index search processing unit 181 of the analysis unit 18 in order to indicate to the user the name of the delayed index to be evaluated on the display screen.

  Here, referring to FIG. 2 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the lag indicator name master table 21 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram schematically showing an example of a lagging index name master table stored in the lagging index name master table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the lagging index name master table 21 is data that stores a lagging index name 24 that is the name of the lagging index in association with a lagging index ID 23 that is an identifier for identifying the lagging index. In this case, the lag indicator name 24 is managed for each record using the lag indicator ID 23 as key data. The lag index name master table 21 includes a serial number (hereinafter referred to as a serial number) 22, a lag index ID 23, and a lag index name 24.

  The serial number 22 is a numerical value that is managed in association with the lagging index ID 23 and the lagging index name 24 in the lagging index name master table 21. Here, a serial number is assigned to each record in the lagging index name master table 21. . The lag index ID 23 is a number for consistently managing the lag index. The delayed index name 24 is the name of the delayed index corresponding to the delayed index ID 23. Furthermore, here, the master management unit 16 includes an interface that can retrieve the associated lagging index name 24 by designating the lagging index ID 23 in the lagging index name master table 21. Each data of the lagging index name master table 21 can be registered and edited by using spreadsheet software or the like.

  Here, for example, in the record on the first line in FIG. 2, the serial number is “1” (25), the lag index ID “1” (26), and the lag index name is “the number of SCL (total test checklist) creation”. (27).

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The risk category name master table storage unit 162 stores a risk category name master table, which is a table for storing a plurality of risk category names, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The risk category name master table 31 stored here stores information on the name of the risk category to be evaluated for each lag indicator when the analysis unit 18 evaluates the risk. When generating a screen to display on the display of the user terminal device 11, the risk evaluated in each lag indicator is divided into a plurality of divisions in advance, and the name of the division is indicated on the screen to the user by the analysis unit 18. It is referred to and used by the leading index search processing unit 181.

  Here, with reference to FIG. 3 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the risk category name master table 31 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram schematically showing an example of the risk category name master table stored in the risk category name master table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 3, the risk category name master table 31 is data that stores a risk category name 34 that is a name of a risk category in association with a risk category ID 33 that is an identifier for identifying the risk category, Here, the risk category name 34 is managed for each record using the risk category ID 33 as key data. The risk category name master table 31 includes a serial number 32, a risk category ID 33, and a risk category name 34.

  The serial number 32 is a numerical value that is managed in association with the risk category ID 33 and the risk category name 34 in the risk category name master table 31, and here, a serial number is assigned to each record unit in the risk category name master table 31. . The risk classification ID 33 is a number for consistently managing the risk classification. The risk category name 34 is the name of the risk category corresponding to the risk category ID 33. Furthermore, here, the master management unit 16 is provided with an interface that can extract the associated risk category name 34 by designating the risk category ID 33 in the risk category name master table 31. Each data of the risk category name master table 31 can be registered and edited by spreadsheet software or the like.

  Here, for example, the record in the first row in FIG. 3 indicates that the serial number is “1” (35), the risk category ID is “1” (36), and the risk category name is “customer” (37). ing.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The leading index name master table storage unit 163 stores a leading index name master table that is a table for storing a plurality of leading index names, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The preceding index name master table stored here stores information on the name of the leading index that causes the lagging index when the analysis unit 18 evaluates the risk. When displaying a leading index input definition screen for inputting / confirming index information on the display of the user terminal device 11, the risk degree calculation processing unit of the analysis unit 18 indicates the name of the leading index to the user on the screen. 182 and used by reference.

  Here, referring to FIG. 4 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the leading index name master table 41 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram schematically illustrating an example of a lagging index name master table stored in the lagging index name master table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 4, the leading index name master table 41 is data that stores the leading index name 44 that is the name of the leading index in association with the leading index content ID 43 that is an identifier for identifying the contents of the leading index. Here, the preceding index name 44 is managed for each record using the preceding index content ID 43 as key data. The leading index name master table 41 includes a serial number 42, a leading index content ID 43, and a leading index name 44.

  The serial number 42 is a numerical value that manages the preceding index content ID 43 and the preceding index name 44 in association with each other in the preceding index name master table 41. Here, a serial number is assigned to each record in the preceding index name master table 41. did. The leading index content ID 43 is a number that consistently manages the lagging index for each content. The leading index name 44 is the name of the lagging index corresponding to the leading index content ID 43. Furthermore, here, the master management unit 16 is provided with an interface that can extract the associated leading index name 44 by specifying the leading index content ID 43 in the leading index name master table 41. Each data of the leading index name master table 41 can be registered and edited by spreadsheet software or the like.

  Here, for example, in the record on the first line in FIG. 4, the serial number is “1” (45), the leading index content ID is “1” (46), and the leading index name is “cold rest” (47). It is shown that.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The risk status master table storage unit 164 stores a risk status master table that is a table for storing a plurality of names of risk states (risk determination results), and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The risk status master table stored here stores name information indicating the risk evaluation result by the analysis unit 18, and displays a screen for displaying the risk evaluation result by the analysis unit 18 on the display of the user terminal device 11. At the time of generation, information indicating the risk status (presence / absence or magnitude of risk) in the evaluation result is displayed on the screen to the user, and information used as a criterion for risk evaluation by the analysis unit 18 is input and confirmed. In order to display a leading index input definition screen for displaying on the display of the user terminal device 11, it is referred to and used by the risk determination processing unit 183 of the analysis unit 18 in order to indicate the name of the risk state to the user on the screen.

  Here, with reference to FIG. 5 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the risk status master table 51 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram schematically showing an example of the risk status master table stored in the risk category name master table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 5, the risk status master table 51 is data that stores a risk status name 54 that is a name of a risk state in association with a risk status ID 53 that is an identifier for identifying the risk state. Then, the risk status ID 53 is managed as the key data, and the risk status name 54 is managed in units of one record. The risk status master table 51 includes a serial number 52, a risk status ID 53, and a risk status name 54.

  The serial number 52 is a numerical value that manages the risk status ID 53 and the risk status name 54 in association with each other in the risk status master table 51. Here, the serial number is assigned to each record in the risk status master table 51. The risk status ID 53 is a number for consistently managing information on the risk state. The risk status name (risk name) 54 is a name indicating a risk state corresponding to the risk status ID 53. Furthermore, here, the master management unit 16 is provided with an interface that allows the associated risk status name 54 to be extracted by designating the risk status ID 53 in the risk status master table 51. Each data of the risk status master table 51 can be registered and edited by spreadsheet software or the like.

  Here, for example, in the record on the first line in FIG. 5, the serial number is “1” (55), the risk status ID is “1” (56), and the risk status name is “no risk” (57). Is shown.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The data management unit (management unit) 17 manages and stores information on the lag indicator and the leading indicator used for the analysis of the project risk by the analysis unit 18 and information used for risk determination. The data management unit 17 includes a project progress management table storage unit 171, a risk management table storage unit 172, a leading index table storage unit 173, and a risk determination table storage unit 174.

  The project progress management table storage unit (project progress management data storage unit) 171 is a project progress which is a table that stores a plurality of information for identifying a lagging indicator, and schedule information and performance information about the lagging indicator in the project in association with each other. The management table is stored, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The project progress management table stored here selects the lagging index to be evaluated for risk evaluation by the leading index search processing unit 181 of the analysis unit 18 and advances whether the project is behind schedule based on the actual results. It is referred to and used when determining whether (progress).

  Here, with reference to FIG. 6 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the project progress management table 61 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram schematically showing an example of the project progress management table stored in the project progress management table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 6, the project progress management table (project progress management data) 61 includes a delay indicator ID 63 which is an identifier for identifying a delay indicator, and information on the schedule and results (schedule 65 and result 66) about the delay indicator. In this example, the schedule and results information is managed in units of one record for each due date, and the lag indicator is classified into a plurality of processes. The name of the process (process 67) is also stored in association with each lagging index ID. The project progress management table 61 includes a serial number 62, a lag indicator ID 63, a date 64, a schedule 65, an actual result 66, and a process 67.

  The serial number 62 associates and manages the delay index ID 63 in the project progress management table 61 and the schedule 65 and the actual result 66 regarding the date due on the date indicated by the day 64 in the delay index indicated by the delay index ID 63. In this example, a serial number is assigned to each record unit in the project progress management table 61. The lag index ID 63 is a number for consistently managing the lag index. The lagging index ID 63 corresponds to the lagging index ID 23 (see FIG. 2) of the lagging index name master table 21 stored in the lagging index name master table storage unit 161. The date 64 is a character string indicating the due date for the lag indicator indicated by the lag indicator ID 63. The schedule 65 is information indicating a schedule of progress on matters that are due on the date indicated by the day 64 in the delay index indicated by the delay index ID 63. The result 66 is information indicating the result of progress corresponding to the schedule 65. Step 67 stores a character string indicating a step of classifying the lag indicator ID 63. Furthermore, here, the data management unit 17 includes an interface that can retrieve each associated data by specifying the step 67 in the project progress management table 61. Each data of the project progress management table 61 can be registered / edited by spreadsheet software.

  Here, for example, in the record in the first row in FIG. 6, the serial number is “1” (68), the delay index ID included in the process of “ST (total test)” (613) is “1” (69), That is, in the lag indicator of the number of SCL (total test checklist) creation (see FIG. 2), the number of SCL creations scheduled to be created by the due date “8/1” (610) is “5” (611). On the other hand, the performance on this date is “0” (612).

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The risk management table storage unit 172 includes information for identifying a lag indicator, information for identifying a risk of the lag indicator, information for classifying each risk into a plurality of categories, and identifying the classified categories of the risks, A risk management table, which is a table for storing a plurality of items in association with each other, is stored, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The risk management table stored here selects a risk corresponding to the lagging index to be evaluated by the preceding index search processing unit 181 of the analysis unit 18, and further selects the evaluation result of the selected risk for each category by the user terminal. It is referred to and used when showing to the user on the display screen of the display of the apparatus 11.

  Here, the risk management table 71 will be described using a specific example with reference to FIG. 7 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate). FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram schematically illustrating an example of a risk management table stored in the risk management table storage unit.

  As illustrated in FIG. 7, the risk management table 71 includes a risk indicator ID 73 that identifies an indicator of a delay indicator that is a candidate for a delay indicator to be evaluated, and an identifier that identifies a risk category of the delay indicator. This is data that stores the category ID 74 and the risk ID 75 that is an identifier for identifying the risk in association with each other. Here, the risk ID 75 is used as key data and is managed in units of one record. The risk management table 71 includes a serial number 72, a lag indicator ID 73, a risk category ID 74, and a risk ID 75.

  The serial number 72 is a numerical value that is managed in association with the delay index ID 73, the risk category ID 74, and the risk category ID 74 in the risk management table 71. Here, a serial number is assigned to each record in the risk management table 71. did. The lagging index ID (lagging index information) 73 is a number for consistently managing the lagging index. The lagging index ID 73 corresponds to the lagging index ID 23 (see FIG. 2) of the lagging index name master table 21 stored in the lagging index name master table storage unit 161. The risk classification ID 74 is a number for consistently managing the classification of the risk of the delay index indicated by the delay index ID 73. This risk category ID 74 corresponds to the risk category ID 33 (see FIG. 3) of the risk category name master table 31 stored in the risk category name master table storage unit 162. The risk ID 75 is a number for consistently managing the risk of the lag indicator indicated by the lag indicator ID 73. Furthermore, here, the data management unit 17 includes an interface that can retrieve the associated risk category ID 74 and risk ID 75 by designating the lag indicator ID 72 in the risk management table 71. Each data of the risk management table 71 can be registered and edited with spreadsheet software.

  Here, for example, in the record in the first line in FIG. 7, the serial number is “1” (76), the delay index ID is “1” (77), that is, the number of SCL (total test checklist) creation (see FIG. 2). ), There is a risk with a risk ID of “1”. This risk is classified into a risk category “3” (78), that is, a risk category related to people (project personnel) (see FIG. 3). Indicates that it is classified.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The leading index table storage unit (preceding index value data storing unit, leading index weight data storing unit) 173 includes information for identifying the risk, information for identifying the leading index indicating an event that causes the risk, An index value indicating how many index events have occurred, the importance of how much the index value of each preceding index event affects the risk, a value indicating the weighting weight of this index value, and the leading index Is stored in association with information indicating the contents of the preceding index table, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The leading index table stored here selects a leading index that is a factor of the lagging index to be evaluated in the risk evaluation by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 of the analysis unit 18, and based on the index value of the leading index. It is referenced and used when calculating the degree of risk that indicates the magnitude of the project risk. Further, the preceding index table generates a screen showing a name indicating the content of the preceding index to the user on the display screen of the user terminal device 11 in the preceding index input definition screen for inputting and confirming the information of the leading index. In some cases, the risk level calculation processing unit 182 of the analysis unit 18 is referred to and used.

  Here, referring to FIG. 8 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the leading index table 81 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram schematically illustrating an example of a leading index table stored in the leading index table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 8, the leading index table (preceding index value data, leading index weight data) 81 includes a leading index ID 83 that is an identifier for identifying the leading index, a leading index content ID 84 that indicates the contents of the leading index, The leading index coefficient 85 indicating the weight of the index value of the leading index, the index value 86 that is the actual value of the leading index, and the risk ID 88 that is an identifier for identifying a risk that is causally related to the leading index are stored in association with each other. Here, it is assumed that the preceding index ID 83 is used as key data and is managed in units of one record. Further, in the preceding index table 81, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 described later is based on the index value of the preceding index. When calculating the degree of risk, a content selection 87 indicating whether or not to adopt the index value of each preceding index is stored in association with the preceding index ID. Was Rukoto. The leading index table 81 includes a serial number 82, a leading index ID 83, a leading index content ID 84, a leading index coefficient 85, an index value 86, a content selection 87, and a risk ID 88.

  The serial number 82 includes the preceding index ID 83 in the preceding index table 81, the preceding index content ID 84 of the preceding index indicated by the preceding index ID 83, the preceding index coefficient 85, the index value 86, the content selection 87, and the risk ID 88. It is a numerical value managed in association with each other, and here, a serial number is assigned to each record in the preceding index table 81. The leading index ID (preceding index information) 83 is a number for consistently managing the leading index. The leading index content ID 84 is a number that consistently manages the lagging index for each content. The preceding index content ID 84 corresponds to the preceding index content ID 43 (see FIG. 4) of the preceding index name master table 41 stored in the preceding index name master table storage unit 163. The leading index coefficient (weight value) 85 is a numerical value indicating the importance of the leading index. The index value (preceding index value) 86 is a numerical value indicating the performance of the leading index. The content selection 87 stores a numerical value indicating whether or not information on a specific row in the leading index table 81 is used for risk calculation by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182. Here, “0” is not used, and “1” is used. The risk ID 88 is a number for managing risk consistently. The leading index that becomes the risk factor indicated by the risk ID 88 is the leading index indicated by the leading index ID 83. The risk ID 88 corresponds to the risk ID 75 (see FIG. 7) of the risk management table 71 stored in the risk management table storage unit 172. In addition, here, the data management unit 17 includes an interface that can retrieve each associated data by specifying the preceding index ID 83 or the risk ID 88 in the preceding index table 81. Each data in the leading index table 81 can be registered and edited with spreadsheet software.

  Here, for example, in the record in the first line in FIG. 8, the leading index that is the cause of the risk having the serial number “1” (89) and the risk ID “1” (815) is the leading index ID “1”. The preceding index content ID of this leading index is “1”, that is, a leading index indicating a rest due to a cold (see FIG. 4), and the actual result (number) of resting due to a cold is an index value “2” ( 813), and the importance of this leading index is the leading index coefficient “1” (812), and the content selection is “1”, that is, this leading index is used for calculating the risk degree. Yes.

  Since the risk ID 75 and the risk ID 88 are the same in the delay index ID 73, the risk ID 75 of the risk management table 71 in FIG. 7, the preceding index ID 83 in the preceding index table 81 in FIG. The ID 73 can be associated with the preceding index ID of the preceding index that causes the delay index indicated by the delay index ID 73. The index correspondence data described in the claims corresponds to the risk management table 71 and the leading index table 81, and the index correspondence data storage unit corresponds to the risk management table storage unit 172 and the leading index table storage unit 173. .

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The risk determination table storage unit 174 is a table that stores a plurality of information that identifies a risk, information that identifies a risk state, and information that indicates a determination criterion for determining that the risk state is present. A certain risk determination table is stored, and is configured by storage means such as a hard disk. The risk determination table stored here is referred to and used when the risk determination processing unit 183 of the analysis unit 18 determines the risk state. Further, the risk determination table is an advance indicator input definition screen for inputting and confirming information serving as a risk evaluation reference, and an image showing the risk evaluation reference on the display screen of the user terminal device 11 to the user. When generating, it is also referred to and used by the risk determination processing unit 183 of the analysis unit 18.

  Here, with reference to FIG. 9 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the risk determination table 91 will be described using a specific example. FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram schematically illustrating an example of a risk determination table stored in the risk determination table storage unit.

  As shown in FIG. 9, the risk determination table 91 includes a risk ID 98 that is an identifier for identifying a risk, a risk status ID 93 that is an identifier for identifying a risk state, and a risk level that is a criterion for determining the risk state. The data is stored in association with the range 94 and the lagging indicator selections 95 to 97. Here, the risk status ID 93 is used as a key to manage each record. The risk determination table 91 includes a serial number 92, a risk status ID 93, a risk degree range 94, a lag indicator selection 95 to 97, and a risk ID 98.

  The serial number 92 includes a risk ID 98 in the risk determination table 91, a risk status ID 93 indicating a risk state indicated by the risk ID 98, a risk degree range 94 as a criterion for determining the risk state, and a lag indicator selection 95 to 97. Is a numerical value managed in association with each other. Here, a serial number is assigned to each record in the risk determination table 91. The risk status ID 93 is a number for consistently managing the risk state. The risk status ID 93 corresponds to the risk status ID 53 (see FIG. 5) of the risk status master table 51 stored in the risk status master table storage unit 164.

  The risk degree range (threshold value information) 94 stores a character string indicating a risk degree range (upper and lower limit range; threshold value) that serves as a reference for determining the risk state indicated by the risk status ID 93. The lag indicator selections 95 to 97 indicate the degree of progress as a reference for determining the risk state indicated by the risk status ID 93. Here, as the degree of progress, the risk determination processing unit 183, which will be described later, determines whether the project is “slow” behind schedule, “scheduled” as scheduled, or “advanced” ahead of schedule. In other words, it was made to correspond to a lag indicator selection (late) 95, a lag indicator selection (as scheduled) 96, and a lag indicator selection (advance) 97, respectively. The lag indicator selection (slow) 95 stores a numerical value indicating whether or not the analysis unit 18 determines that the risk state is indicated by the risk status ID 93 when the progress degree is “slow”. The lag indicator selection (as scheduled) 96 stores a numerical value indicating whether or not the analysis unit 18 determines that the risk state is indicated by the risk status ID 93 when the progress degree is “as scheduled”. The delayed index selection (advance) 97 stores a numerical value indicating whether or not the analysis unit 18 determines that the risk state is indicated by the risk status ID 93 when the progress degree is “advance”. “0” indicates that the risk status indicated by the risk status ID 93 is not determined, and “1” indicates that the risk status indicated by the risk status ID 93 is determined if the criterion of the risk degree range 94 is further satisfied. The risk ID 98 is a number for managing risk consistently. The risk ID 98 includes the risk ID 75 (see FIG. 7) of the risk management table 71 stored in the risk management table storage unit 172, and the risk ID 88 (see FIG. 8) of the preceding index table 81 stored in the risk determination table storage unit 174. Corresponding to the reference). Furthermore, here, the data management unit 17 includes an interface that can retrieve each associated data by specifying the risk status ID 93 or the risk ID 98 in the risk determination table 91. Each data of the risk determination table 91 can be registered and edited with spreadsheet software.

  Here, for example, in the record on the first line in FIG. 9, the risk status with the serial number “1” (99), the risk ID “1” (915) is the risk status ID “1” (910), As a criterion for determining that the risk status is “no risk” (see FIG. 5), the risk degree calculated by the risk determination processing unit 183 is “0-3”, that is, 0 or more and 3 or less, and delay The indicator selection (late) 95 is “1”, the delay indicator selection (as scheduled) 96 is “0”, the delay indicator selection (advance) 97 is “0”, that is, the progress is “slow”. Yes.

  In the risk status ID table 53 of the risk status master table 51 of FIG. 5, the risk status name 54, the risk degree range 94 of the risk determination table 91 of FIG. 9, and the risk status ID 93, the risk status ID 53 and the risk status ID 93 match. Therefore, the risk status and the progress determined by the analysis unit 18 are associated with the risk status name 54 that is a name indicating a risk state determined when the risk range 94 and the lag indicator selection 95 to 97 are satisfied. Can do. The risk name determination data described in the claims corresponds to the risk status master table 51 and the risk determination table 91, and the risk name determination data storage unit includes the risk status master table storage unit 164 and the risk determination table storage unit. Corresponds to 174.

  In addition, the table managed in the master management part 16 and the data management part 17 demonstrated here can add and change the number of lines and a character string by the user. For example, by adding / changing the lagging index name 24 in the lagging index name master table 21 (see FIG. 2), it is possible to increase / change the words to be easily understood by the user. Furthermore, the risk type can be increased by adding a combination of the lag index ID 73, the risk category ID 74, and the risk ID 75 in the risk management table 71 (see FIG. 7). Further, by adding a line in the leading index table 81 (see FIG. 8) and inputting new information in the added line, the types of leading indices can be increased. Furthermore, a risk status type can be increased by adding a row in the risk determination table 91 (see FIG. 9) and inputting new information in the added row. As described above, by allowing the user to add / change the contents of the table managed in the master management unit 16, the screen presented to the user can be made easier for the user to understand, and by the user, By adding / changing the contents of the table managed by the data management unit 17, the project progress management system 14 can be used more generally.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The analysis unit 18 is a processing unit of the project progress management system 14, refers to data managed in the master management unit 16 and the data management unit 17, and uses a user through the input analysis processing unit 151 of the input / output unit 15. Based on the information indicating the process input from the terminal device 11 by the user, the risk that occurs for the lag indicator included in the process is determined. The analysis unit 18 includes a preceding index search processing unit 181, a risk degree calculation processing unit 182, and a risk determination processing unit 183.

  The leading index search processing unit 181 is a delay subject to evaluation based on the project progress management table 61 stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171 and the risk management table 71 stored in the risk management table storage unit 172. A lag indicator ID of an index and a risk ID indicating a risk occurring with respect to the lag indicator are extracted. Here, the leading index search processing unit 181 uses information indicating a process input by the user from the user terminal device 11 via the input analysis processing unit 151 of the input / output unit 15 as a command indicating a lagging index to be evaluated. I decided to enter it. Then, the leading index search processing unit 181 extracts a lagging index ID associated with the process information indicated by the command based on the project progress management table 61 stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171. Furthermore, the leading index search processing unit 181 extracts a risk ID associated with the extracted late index ID based on the risk management table 61 stored in the risk management table storage unit 172. The extracted risk ID information is output to the risk degree calculation processing unit 182, and the delayed index ID is output to the risk determination processing unit 183.

  Here, with reference to FIG. 6 and FIG. 7 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), processing of the leading index search processing unit 181 will be described using a specific example. Here, for example, it is assumed that the leading index search processing unit 181 inputs information indicating the process “ST” as a command indicating the lagging index to be evaluated from the user terminal device 11 via the input analysis processing unit 151. Then, based on the project progress management table 61 (see FIG. 6) stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171, the leading index search processing unit 181 has a row in which the process 67 is “ST” (the serial number is “1”). (1), (2), (3), and (4) are extracted. Further, the leading index search processing unit 181 determines the risk ID associated with each of the extracted lagging index IDs based on the risk management table 71 (see FIG. 7) stored in the risk management table storage unit 172. Extract. For example, when the risk ID associated with the lag index ID “1” is first extracted from the extracted lag index IDs “1”, “2”, “3”, and “4”, the preceding index The search processing unit 181 extracts “1”, “2”, and “3” that are risk IDs 75 of the row having the delay index ID 73 of “1” (rows of serial numbers “1” to “3”). Further, the leading index search processing unit 181 extracts a risk ID 75 associated with each of the cases where the lagging index ID 73 is “2”, “3”, and “4”.

  In addition, here, the leading index search processing unit 181 includes the schedule index ID 63 from the project progress management table 61 (see FIG. 6), and the schedule 64 and schedule information of the delay index indicated by the delay index ID. 65, the information on the record 66 is extracted, and the risk classification ID 74 associated with the risk ID 75 is extracted together with the risk ID 75 from the risk management table 71 (see FIG. 7). Further, the leading index search processing unit 181 extracts the lagging index name corresponding to the extracted lagging index ID based on the lagging index name master table stored in the lagging index name master table storage unit 161, and also the risk Based on the risk category name master table stored in the category name master table storage unit 162, the risk category name corresponding to the extracted risk category ID is extracted. Then, the leading index search processing unit 181 generates a screen indicating to the user the lagging index to be evaluated, the schedule and results thereof, and the information on the risk category to be evaluated.

  Here, referring to FIG. 10 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), a screen for presenting the evaluation result generated by the analysis unit 18 to the user will be described using a specific example. FIG. 10 is a schematic diagram schematically showing an example of a screen showing the evaluation result by the analysis unit to the user. When the user clicks on an icon arranged on the display of the user terminal device 11, a command for starting the project progress management system 14 is input to the server 13, and when the project progress management system 14 is started. The web browser 101 opens on the display of the user terminal device 11 and the screen of the project progress management schedule 102 is displayed in the window on the web browser 101. At the time of activation, only the table frame of table 103 and scroll bars 1013, 1014, and 1015 are displayed.

  Further, here, a selection button for switching the contents of the table 103 to each process of the project (estimation process, basic design process, etc.) is displayed in the cell 104 for displaying the process, and the process of the project progress management table 61 is displayed. The character string stored in 67 (see FIG. 6) is displayed as a user selectable process. When the user clicks the selection button of the cell 104 and selects a character string indicating a process, the preceding index search processing unit 181 inputs information on the process from the input analysis processing unit 151 and corresponds to the process. Delayed index ID, date, schedule and performance information attached, delayed index name corresponding to the delayed index ID, risk ID and risk category ID associated with the delayed index ID, and corresponding risk category ID Risk category name to be extracted. FIG. 10 shows the case where the user selects the process “ST”, and the character string “ST” is arranged on the selection button in the cell 104 that displays the process.

  Then, the preceding index search processing unit 181 arranges the extracted character string of the delayed index name in the area 1010 for displaying the delayed index name, and extracts the extracted date in the areas 106 and 1011 for displaying the results of the delayed index. And the information of the schedule and the actual result are arranged, and the character string of the risk category name is arranged in the area 109 for displaying the risk category name. In FIG. 10, character strings are also displayed in the area 1012, but these character strings are displayed after the risk evaluation result is analyzed by the risk determination processing unit 183 described later.

  Here, the project progress management schedule table 102 is based on the information defined in the project progress management table 61 stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171, the lag indicator to be evaluated, the results of the lag indicator, and the risk It is a table | surface which links and displays a status according to a process. By viewing this project progress management schedule 102, the user grasps the progress of the project from the lag indicator, monitors the risk calculated from the leading indicator, examines countermeasures against the risk, and the progress is delayed. It is possible to instruct the change of the countermeasure policy of the indicator and the change of the project schedule.

  The lag indicator to be evaluated, the results of the lag indicator, and the risk determination result are displayed in the table 103. Table 103 shows a cell 104 for displaying a process, a column 105 for displaying the contents of a lagging indicator, a column 107 for displaying a risk evaluation result (risk status) for each risk category, and item names for which risk has been evaluated. And a column 108 for displaying a lag indicator name. In this table 103, the area 106 is a table area for displaying the date of the delayed index corresponding to the delayed index name displayed in the column 108, the area 1011 is a table area for displaying the actual value and the scheduled value, and the project progress management table 61 ( In FIG. 6), the delay indicator date 64 corresponding to the process displayed in the cell 104, the schedule 65, and the record 66 are displayed. Here, in the area 1011, the schedule and results of the lag indicator are arranged in correspondence with the lag indicator name and date, and the schedule 65 is displayed in the upper row and the record 66 is displayed in parentheses in the lower row. For example, in the cell 1010a, the delayed index name “SCL creation number” (27) in the first row of the delayed index name master table 21 (see FIG. 2) is displayed, and in the upper part of the cell 1011a, the project progress management table 61 is displayed. The schedule “5” (611) on the first line (see FIG. 6) is displayed in parentheses and the actual result “0” (612) on the first line of the project progress management table 61 is displayed in parentheses.

  Further, the area 109 is an area for displaying the risk category name corresponding to the delayed index name in the column 108, and displays the character string of the risk category name 34 in the risk category name master table 31 (see FIG. 3). For example, the risk category name “customer” (37) in the first row of the risk category name master table 31 is displayed in the cell 109a. The area 1012 is a table area that displays the status of the risk corresponding to the lagging index name in the column 108 for each risk category name displayed in the area 109. The area 1012 includes a risk determination processing unit described later. By 183, the character string of the risk status name 54 of the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5) is arranged.

  Further, when the number of delayed index names displayed in the area 1010 is large and cannot be displayed, the scroll bar 1015 can be used for scrolling. When the number of days displayed in the area 106 cannot be displayed, scrolling is performed. If the number of risk categories displayed in the area 109 cannot be displayed, the scroll bar 1013 can be used to scroll.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The risk degree calculation processing unit 182 is a combination of the index value of the leading index and the leading index coefficient corresponding to the risk ID extracted by the leading index search processing unit 181 from the leading index table 81 stored in the leading index table storage unit 173. , And a risk level indicating the magnitude of the risk in the item of the delayed index corresponding to the preceding index is calculated based on the extracted information. The risk degree calculated here is output to the risk determination processing unit 183.

  Further, here, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 refers to the content selection 87 (see FIG. 8) of the preceding index table 81 stored in the preceding index table storage unit 173 and refers to the index value of the preceding index corresponding to the risk ID. Among the combinations of the leading index coefficients, only the combination of the index value and the leading index coefficient designated to be used for calculating the risk degree by the information indicated by the content selection is extracted. Then, the risk level calculation processing unit 182 multiplies the extracted index values and the leading index coefficients of each combination, adds all the multiplication results, and determines the risk level for each risk ID.

  Here, with reference to FIG. 8 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), the processing of the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 will be described using a specific example. Here, for example, it is assumed that the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 inputs the risk ID “1” from the preceding index search processing unit 181. Then, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 has the risk ID 88 of “1” (815) based on the preceding index table 81 (see FIG. 8) stored in the preceding index table storage unit 173, and the content selection 87. The combination of the leading index coefficient “1” (812) and the index value “2” (813) is extracted as the combination of the leading index coefficient 85 and the index value 86 of the row having “1” (814). The risk level calculation processing unit 182 sets “2” obtained by multiplying the preceding index coefficient “1” and the index value “2” as the risk level corresponding to the risk ID “1”.

  In this way, by multiplying the index value by the leading index coefficient, even if there is a leading index event that has a large impact on the risk and a small leading index event for the corresponding lagging index item, this impact is reflected. By setting the advanced index coefficient in advance, the risk level calculation processing unit 182 can calculate a risk level that more accurately indicates the magnitude of the risk that occurs for the item of the delayed index. Note that, as an example of an event of a leading indicator that has a large influence on the risk of a delay indicator item and an event of a small leading indicator, for example, when evaluating a risk related to project personnel, the leading indicator table 81 (FIG. 8). Reference) includes “cold rest” (see FIG. 4) indicated by the leading index ID “1” and “hospital rest” (see FIG. 4) indicated by the leading index ID “2”. Here, we use the number of rested employees as the index value of these leading indicators. Even if the project staff rests due to a cold and rests due to hospitalization, the number of employees is the same as `` rest due to a cold. '' “Risk on hospitalization” is more likely to cause a risk of project staff shortage. For this reason, in the preceding index table 81 (see FIG. 8), the preceding index coefficient 85 is set to “1” in the case of the preceding index ID “1”, and the preceding index coefficient 85 is set in the case of the preceding index ID “2”. The larger value was set to “8”.

  Also, here, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 presents information used for risk evaluation corresponding to a certain risk ID by the user from the user terminal device 11 via the input analysis processing unit 151 of the input / output unit 15. When a command is input, the preceding index content ID 84, the leading index coefficient 85, the index value 86, and the content selection 87 of all rows corresponding to the risk ID 88 from the leading index table 81 (see FIG. 8). Furthermore, the preceding index name 44 corresponding to the extracted preceding index content ID 43 is extracted from the preceding index name master table 41 (see FIG. 4). Then, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 indicates to the user the preceding index names of all the leading indices corresponding to the risk ID indicated by the command, their leading index coefficients and index values, and the content selection information. A leading index input definition screen was generated.

  Here, referring to FIG. 11 (refer to FIG. 1, FIG. 8, and FIG. 10 as appropriate), the leading index input definition screen 112 for presenting information used for risk evaluation to the user will be described using a specific example. . FIG. 11 is a schematic diagram schematically showing an example of a leading index input definition screen that shows the user the leading index information that is referred to when the risk level calculation processing unit calculates the risk level. Here, when the screen presenting the evaluation result generated by the analysis unit 18 as shown in FIG. 10 is displayed on the display of the user terminal device 11, the risk status name of FIG. 10 is displayed. When the user double-clicks one cell in the area 1012 to be executed, the risk ID information corresponding to the risk status name and a command for generating the leading index input definition screen 112 are input to the risk degree calculation processing unit 182. In addition, the web browser 111 is newly displayed, and the leading index input definition screen 112 is displayed in the forefront of the display of the user terminal device 11 in a window on the web browser 111.

  Here, when a command for generating the leading index input definition screen 112 together with the risk ID information is input to the risk level calculation processing unit 182, the risk level calculation processing unit 182 includes the leading index table 81 (see FIG. 8) and From the leading index name master table 41 (see FIG. 4), all leading index content IDs 84 corresponding to the risk ID 88, leading index coefficient 85, index value 86, content selection 87, and extracted leading index content ID. The leading index name 44 associated with (83, 43) is extracted. In FIG. 11, as indicated by ““ ST ”−“ number of SCL creations ”−“ person ”” in the area 113, in the project progress management schedule table 102 of FIG. Tables 114 and 1117 presenting information of the leading index when the cell 1012b having the name “number of SCL creations” and the risk classification “person” is double-clicked are shown.

  Then, in the table 114, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 places the extracted character string of the leading index name in each cell of the column 116 that displays the leading index name, and displays each leading index coefficient in each column 117 that displays the leading index coefficient. The extracted leading index coefficients are respectively arranged in the cells. Further, the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 places the extracted index value in each cell of the column 118 displaying the index value, and checks the information of the content selection extracted in each cell of the column 119 displaying the content selection. Display by box.

  Here, the leading index input definition screen 112 is a screen for defining information for determining a risk state, and mainly includes a table 114 and a table 1117. When the user presses the “close” button 1131, the contents defined in the table 114 and the table 1117 are stored in the preceding index table storage unit 173 and the risk determination table storage unit 174, respectively, and the web browser 111 is closed. The web browser 101 (see FIG. 10) is displayed on the forefront of the display of the user terminal device 11. Here, first, the table 114 generated by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 will be described, and the table 1117 will be described later.

  The table 114 includes a column 115 that displays a serial number that is a number indicating the number of rows, a column 116 that displays a leading index name, a column 117 that displays a leading index coefficient, a column 118 that displays an index value, and a content selection. And a column 119 for displaying the information. The column 116 includes a plurality of cells for displaying the leading index name, and each cell has a selection button for displaying a character string stored in the leading index name 44 of the leading index name master table 41 (see FIG. 4). These character strings are displayed as the name of a preceding index that can be selected by the user. The column 117 is composed of a plurality of cells for displaying the leading index coefficient, and each cell displays the weight of the index value for the leading index name shown in the column 116 and can be numerically input by the user. The numerical value input here is stored in the leading index coefficient 85 of the leading index table 81 (see FIG. 8) by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182.

  The column 118 includes a plurality of cells that display index values. Each cell displays the number of indexes for the preceding index name shown in the column 116 and can be numerically input by the user. The numerical value input here is stored in the index value 86 of the preceding index table 81 by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182. Column 119 is composed of a plurality of cells for displaying content selections, and each cell displays a check box indicating whether or not to adopt the leading index for the leading index name shown in column 116 when calculating the risk degree. In addition, it is possible to set whether or not to adopt by selecting and checking by the user. The content selected here is stored in the content selection 87 of the preceding index table 81 by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182. When checked, “1” is stored in the content selection 87 of the leading index table 81, and “0” is stored if there is no check.

  For example, in the row where the serial number is “1” (1110), the preceding index name “cold rest” (47) of the preceding index name master table 41 (see FIG. 4) is selected and displayed in the cell 1111. Is displayed with the leading index coefficient “1” (812) of the leading index table 81 (see FIG. 8). In addition, the index value “2” (813) of the preceding index table 81 is displayed in the cell 1113, and the check box is checked in the cell 1114 based on the content selection “1” (814) of the preceding index table 81. Is displayed. Also, in the row where the serial number is “2” (1115), the leading index value in the leading index with the leading index name “pause on admission” is large, so the risk is high, and the number of persons is one, but the content selection cell No check is displayed in the check box of, indicating that it is not adopted when calculating the risk level. Furthermore, when the number of preceding index names shown in the column 116 cannot be displayed, the scroll bar 1116 can be used to scroll.

  This table 114 allows the user to confirm the risk factor and state. Moreover, the accuracy of the risk degree can be improved by adding and deleting the leading index added to the risk by the user. For example, by adding a content selection check in the column 119, the risk level can be defined in a form that matches the substance.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the description will be continued. The risk determination processing unit 183 extracts schedule information and schedule information of the delay index from the project progress management table stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171, determines the progress, and calculates the progress and risk level. Based on the risk degree calculated by the processing unit 182, the risk state is determined based on the risk determination table stored in the risk determination table storage unit 174. The result determined here is output to the output analysis processing unit 152 of the input / output unit 15.

  Here, the risk determination processing unit 183 adds a value obtained by adding the numerical values indicating the schedule of the delayed index extracted from the project progress management table and the numerical value indicating the actual result for each of the delayed indexes selected by the preceding index search processing unit 181. Whether the project is behind schedule, on schedule, or ahead of schedule is determined based on whether the difference from the total value is greater than, equal to, or less than zero.

  Here, when calculating the degree of progress used to determine the risk of the cell in the area 1012 of the project progress management schedule 102 shown in FIG. 10, the risk determination processing unit 183 uses the project progress management table 61 shown in FIG. , For the row with the same delay index ID 63 as the delay index ID corresponding to the selected cell, the value of the scheduled 65 is added (A), the value of the record 66 is further added (B), and (A) to (B) If the value obtained by subtracting is greater than 0, the degree of progress is determined as “slow”, if 0, “as scheduled”, and if smaller than 0, “advance”. Then, the risk determination processing unit 183 repeatedly performs the same calculation for all the delayed index IDs extracted by the preceding index search processing unit 181.

  For example, since the cell 1012b of the project progress management schedule 102 corresponds to the delay index ID “1”, the risk determination processing unit 183 schedules the line whose delay index ID 63 of the project progress management table 61 is “1”. 65 is added (A = 5 + 5 + 0 + 0 = 10), and the result 66 is added (B = 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 0), and the result of subtracting (B) from (A) is greater than 0. Determined as “slow”.

  Furthermore, the risk determination processing unit 183 determines the risk state based on the risk determination table stored in the risk determination table storage unit 174 from the determined progress degree and the risk degree calculated by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182. judge. Here, the risk determination processing unit 183 is calculated by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 among the lines that match the risk ID extracted by the preceding index search processing unit 181 in the risk determination table 91 (see FIG. 9). The risk level falls within the range of the risk level range (lower limit-upper limit) 94, and the lag indicator (late) 95, the lag indicator (as planned) 96, and the lag indicator (advance) 97 corresponding to the determined progress degree The line having the value “1” is specified, and the risk status ID 93 of this line is extracted. Then, the risk determination processing unit 183 extracts the risk status name 54 corresponding to the extracted risk status ID 53 in the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5).

  For example, in the risk determination table 91, when the risk ID extracted by the preceding index search processing unit 181 is “1”, the line having the risk ID 98 of “1” has the serial number “1” (99) and the serial number “ 2 ”(916) and the serial number“ 3 ”(917). Furthermore, when the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 calculates the risk degree as “2” and the risk determination processing unit 183 determines that the progress degree is “slow”, the risk determination processing unit 183 determines that the risk degree is a risk It is applied to the range of the degree range (lower limit-upper limit) 94 (0-3 (912)), and the delay number (slow) 95 is “1” (913) and the serial number is “1” (99) rows The risk status ID “1” (910) is extracted. Furthermore, the risk determination processing unit 183 extracts the risk status name “no risk” (57) corresponding to the extracted risk status ID “1” (56) in the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5). .

  As described above, the risk determination processing unit 183 determines the risk by using the risk degree, and reflects the information of the leading index that causes the risk although not reflected in the actual result in the risk determination. Can do. For example, in the row of the serial number “3” (1126) in the table 1117 of FIG. 11, even if the progress degree is determined to be “advance”, if the risk degree is 8 or more (1128, 1129), “risk (high) ) "(1127). In other words, even if the results are ahead of schedule at the time of risk assessment, for example, if there are many events that can cause risks such as a shortage of project personnel, they are not yet reflected in the results. There is a risk of things. In such a case, it has not been possible to analyze that there is a risk until it has been reflected in the result by the conventional method of evaluating the risk from only the actual result, but in the present invention, since the risk is determined using the risk degree, Risks can be discovered earlier than the judgment based on the counting results. Furthermore, here, by determining the risk based on both the risk level and the progress level, it is possible to more accurately determine the risk by reflecting the result totals in the risk determination.

  Further, here, the risk determination processing unit 183 arranges the extracted risk status name on the screen generated by the preceding index search processing unit 181 and generates a screen showing the risk evaluation result to the user. It was decided.

  Here, referring to FIG. 10 (refer to FIG. 1 as appropriate), a screen for presenting a risk evaluation result analyzed by the risk determination processing unit 183 to the user will be described using a specific example. In addition, in the table 103 of FIG. 10, the row 108 in which the delayed index name is displayed, the column 105 in which the schedule and results of the delayed index are displayed, the cell 104 in which the process is displayed, and the risk category name are displayed. In the area 109, a character string has already been arranged by the preceding index search processing unit 181. Then, the risk determination processing unit 183 places the extracted risk status name in the corresponding cell in the area 1012.

  For example, when the risk determination processing unit 183 extracts the risk status ID “1” for the risk ID “1”, the risk determination processing unit 183 corresponds to the risk status ID “1” (56) in the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5). The risk status name “No risk” (57) is extracted. Then, the risk determination processing unit 183 arranges the extracted character string of the risk status name “no risk” in the cell 1012b corresponding to the risk ID “1” in the area 1012 of the table 103 in FIG.

  Each cell in the area 1012 is associated with a risk ID 75 in the risk management table 71 (see FIG. 7). For example, the cell 1012b is associated with the risk ID “1”. That is, as shown in the row of the serial number “1” (76) of the risk management table 71, the risk ID “1” (79) is the lag index ID “1” (77) and the risk category ID “3” (78). ). On the other hand, the row included in the cell 1012b in FIG. 10 shows information about the lag indicator of the lag indicator name “SCL creation number” (1010a), and as shown in FIG. 2, the lag indicator name “SCL creation number” ( The delay index ID of 27) is “1” (26). Further, the column included in the cell 1012b shows information on the risk category of the risk category name “person” (109b), and the risk category ID of the risk category name “person” (39) as shown in FIG. Is “3” (38). In this way, by associating each cell in the region 1012 with the risk ID, the risk determination processing unit 183 assigns the risk to the cell at the position corresponding to the lag indicator and the risk category based on the risk ID. A risk status name indicating a determination result can be arranged.

  Furthermore, as shown in FIG. 10, in the project progress management schedule 102, the risk is evaluated by dividing it into a plurality of risk categories for one lagging indicator, and is associated with the risk category name as shown in FIG. By arranging the risk status name as the evaluation result, it is possible to easily show to the user in which risk category the risk occurs in each item indicated by each lagging index name.

  Here, the area 1012 is composed of a plurality of cells displaying the risk status name, and each cell is based on the result of analysis by the analysis unit 18 and the lag indicator name shown in the area 1010 and the area 109. A character string indicating a risk determination result for each of the risk category names shown in FIG. The project progress management schedule 102 is displayed and updated at the timing when the user selects the process of the cell 104 or when the user clicks the close button 1131 on the preceding index input definition screen 112 (see FIG. 11).

  Further, here, the risk determination processing unit 183 is a command that presents information used for risk assessment corresponding to a certain risk ID from the user terminal device 11 by the user via the input analysis processing unit 151 of the input / output unit 15. Is extracted from the risk determination table 91 (see FIG. 9), the risk status ID 93, the risk degree range 94, and the lag indicator selection 95 to 97 for all the rows corresponding to the risk ID 98, Furthermore, the risk status name 54 corresponding to the risk status ID 93 is extracted from the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5). The risk determination processing unit 183 then inputs a leading index that indicates to the user the risk degree range indicating the risk criterion corresponding to the risk ID indicated by the command and the lag indicator selection corresponding to the risk status name. A definition screen was generated.

  Here, referring to FIG. 11 (refer to FIGS. 1 and 9 as appropriate), the leading index input definition screen 112 for presenting information used for risk evaluation to the user will be described using a specific example. In the table 114 of FIG. 11, the character string has already been arranged by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182. Then, the risk determination processing unit 183 has a command to generate the leading index input definition screen 112 together with the risk ID information when the user double-clicks one cell in the area 1012 displaying the risk status name in FIG. When input to the risk determination processing unit 183, the risk determination processing unit 183 reads all risk statuses corresponding to the risk ID 98 from the risk determination table 91 (see FIG. 9) and the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5). The ID 93, the risk degree range 94, and the lagging index selections 95 to 97 are extracted, and the risk status name 54 corresponding to the extracted risk status ID (93, 53) is further extracted. Then, the risk determination processing unit 183 arranges character strings indicating the extracted risk status name and the content of the risk degree range in the column 1119 and the column 1120 in the table 1117, and further, information on the lag indicator selection is a check box. Is displayed in the column 1121.

  Here, the table 1117 includes a column 1118 for displaying a serial number that is a number indicating the number of rows, a column 1119 for displaying a risk status name, a column 1120 for displaying a risk degree range (lower limit-upper limit), and a lag indicator state. And a column 1121 for displaying (actual result). The column 1119 includes a plurality of cells that display risk status names, and each cell has a selection button that displays a character string stored in the risk status name 54 of the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5). These character strings are displayed as risk status names that can be selected by the user. A column 1120 includes a plurality of cells that display a risk level range (lower limit-upper limit), and each cell displays a character string that indicates a risk level range corresponding to the risk status name shown in the column 1119, and a user. You can enter numerical values. The numerical value input here is stored in the risk degree range (lower limit-upper limit) 94 of the risk determination table 91 (see FIG. 9) by the risk determination processing unit 183.

  The column 1121 is composed of a plurality of cells for displaying the lagging indicator state (actual), and each cell is set to “delayed”, “planned” as a criterion for determining the risk state of the risk status name shown in the column 1119. Whether or not to add the state of progress of each of “street” and “advance” is displayed by a check box, and it is possible to set whether or not to add by checking and selecting by the user. The contents selected here are stored by the risk determination processing unit 183 in the lag indicator selection (delay) 95, the lag indicator selection (as scheduled) 96, and the lag indicator selection (advance) 97 of the risk determination table 91. If checked, “1” is stored in the lag indicator selection (late) 95, lag indicator selection (as scheduled) 96, and lag indicator selection (advance) 97 of the risk judgment table 91, and “0” is stored if there is no check. Is done.

  For example, in the row 1122 with the serial number “1”, the risk status name is “No risk” (1123), the risk degree range is “0-3” (1124), and only the progress degree “slow” is checked. (1125). This is because, when the risk degree calculated by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 is 0 or more and 3 or less and the progress degree is “slow”, the risk determination processing unit 183 displays the risk status name. As shown, "No risk" is extracted. If the number of risk status names shown in the column 1119 cannot be displayed, scrolling can be performed using the scroll bar 1130.

  Then, the user confirms the leading index input definition screen 112 in FIG. 11 in correspondence with the risk evaluation result displayed in the project progress management schedule 102 (see FIG. 10). Measures such as review can be considered. For example, “no risk” in the cell 1012b indicating the risk determination result for “person” in the “number of SCL creations” in the step “ST” is displayed when the user double-clicks the cell 1012b. By referring to the table 114 shown in FIG. 11, the risk factor and state can be confirmed, and by referring to the table 1117, the criterion for determining the risk can be confirmed. Further, in Table 1117, since the user can edit the criterion for determining the risk, the determination accuracy of the risk can be improved. For example, by editing the risk degree range shown in the column 1120 by the user, the risk can be determined in a more realistic manner.

  By configuring the project progress management system 14 as described above, the project progress management system 14 does not wait for the results to be aggregated, but can be an event that affects the performance of the lag indicator (leading indicator). Risk can be evaluated by focusing on changes in As described above, by evaluating the risk by paying attention to the factors, the project progress management system 14 does not need to spend time for calculating and analyzing the results of the project, and can easily find the risk. As a result, the project progress management system 14 can support flexible project management in accordance with the current situation in which the project manager (user) can quickly recognize the risk and correct the direction to avoid the risk.

  The present invention can be used as a project progress management system for promoting various projects such as a project involving various management elements such as personnel procurement and customer adjustment. In particular, a high effect can be expected in large-scale system development in which the risk of project promotion greatly affects the progress of the entire project.

[Operation of project progress management system]
Next, the operation of the project progress management system 14 in the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing the operation of the project progress management system according to the present invention.

  First, when an icon placed on the display of the user terminal device 11 is clicked by the user, a command generated by the user terminal device 11 to start the project progress management system 14 is sent via the network 12 to the server 13. Sent to. The server 13 receives this information and activates the project progress management system 14 by the input analysis processing unit 151 of the input / output unit 15. Then, the project progress management system 14 generates a screen of the table frame of the table 103 of the project progress management table 102, and the output analysis processing unit 152 of the input / output unit 15 transmits this screen information to the user terminal via the network 12. It transmits to the apparatus 11 (step S121).

  Further, when the information on the process to be evaluated selected by the user is transmitted from the user terminal device 11 to the server 13 via the network 12, the project progress management system 14 uses the input analysis processing unit 151 to execute this process. The process information is received, and the preceding index search processing unit 181 of the analysis unit 18 corresponds to the process 67 based on the project progress management table 61 (see FIG. 6) stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171. Information on the delayed index ID 63, the date 64, the schedule 65, and the record 66 that are attached is extracted. Then, the project progress management system 14 sorts the delayed index ID 63 unit by the preceding index search processing unit 181 and then extracts the extracted date 64, the schedule 65, and the actual record 66 in the area 106 and area of the project progress management table 102, respectively. A screen arranged at 1011 is generated.

  Furthermore, the project progress management system 14 corresponds to the lagging index ID 23 extracted from the lagging index name master table 21 (see FIG. 2) stored in the lagging index name master table storage unit 161 by the preceding index search processing unit 181. The attached lagging index name 24 is extracted, and a screen arranged in the area 1010 is generated. Then, the project progress management system 14 detects the risk associated with the delayed index ID 73 extracted from the risk management table 71 (see FIG. 7) stored in the risk management table storage unit 172 by the preceding index search processing unit 181. A category ID 74 and a risk ID 75 are extracted. Further, the project progress management system 14 corresponds to the risk category ID 33 extracted from the risk category name master table 31 (see FIG. 3) stored in the risk category name master table storage unit 162 by the leading index search processing unit 181. The attached risk category name 34 is extracted, and a screen arranged in the area 109 in ascending order of the risk category ID 33 is generated (step S122).

  Subsequently, the project progress management system 14 uses the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 of the analysis unit 18 to extract the risk extracted in step S122 from the preceding index table 81 (see FIG. 8) stored in the preceding index table storage unit 173. All the lines that are associated with one risk ID 88 of the IDs and whose content selection 87 is “1” are specified. Then, the project progress management system 14 extracts the leading index coefficient 85 and the index value 86 of the identified line by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 and multiplies the leading index coefficient 85 and the index value 86 for each line. Further, the project progress management system 14 adds the results of multiplication by the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 to obtain a risk degree. Then, the project progress management system 14 uses the risk degree calculation processing unit 182 to sequentially calculate risk degrees for all risk IDs extracted in step S122 by the same method (step S123).

  Subsequently, the project progress management system 14 is extracted in step S122 from the project progress management table 61 (see FIG. 6) stored in the project progress management table storage unit 171 by the risk determination processing unit 183 of the analysis unit 18. A value obtained by summing up the values of all the schedules 65 associated with one of the lagging index IDs out of the lagging index IDs, adding up the values of the results 66 of the same row, and adding up the numerical values indicating the schedules The value obtained by subtracting the value obtained by adding the numerical values indicating the actual results from is calculated. Then, the project progress management system 14 determines the degree of progress as “delayed” if the value calculated by the risk determination processing unit 183 is greater than 0, “as planned” if it is 0, and “advanced” if it is less than 0. To do. Then, the project progress management system 14 uses the risk determination processing unit 183 to sequentially determine the degree of progress for all the delayed index IDs extracted in step S122 by the same method (step S124).

  Further, the project progress management system 14 uses the risk determination processing unit 183 to select one of the risk IDs extracted in step S122 in the risk determination table 91 (see FIG. 9) stored in the risk determination table storage unit 174. The line associated with the risk ID 98 is specified, the line whose risk level calculated in step S123 is within the range indicated by the risk level range (lower limit-upper limit) 94 is specified, and further, From among the rows, the value of the item that matches the degree of progress determined in step S124 is “1” among the lag indicator (late) 95, the lag indicator (as scheduled) 96, and the lag indicator (advance) 97. And the risk status ID 93 of this row is extracted. Then, the project progress management system 14 sequentially extracts risk status IDs 93 for all risk IDs extracted in step S122 by the risk determination processing unit 183 in the same manner (step S125).

  Subsequently, the project progress management system 14 uses the risk determination processing unit 183 to change the risk status ID 53 extracted in step S125 from the risk status master table 51 (see FIG. 5) stored in the risk status master table storage unit 164. The associated risk status name 54 is extracted. Then, the project progress management system 14 corresponds to the risk ID in the region 1012 (see FIG. 10) of the screen generated in step S122 by using the risk determination processing unit 183 to extract the character string of the risk status name 54. Place in cell. Then, the project progress management system 14 sequentially arranges the character strings of the risk status IDs 93 in the cells corresponding to the risk IDs for all risk IDs extracted in step S122 by the risk determination processing unit 183, and the input / output unit 15 The output analysis processing unit 152 outputs the result to the user terminal device 11 via the network 12 (step S126).

It is the block diagram which showed the example of the whole system structure containing the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the lagging index name master table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the risk classification name master table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the lagging index name master table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the risk status master table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the project progress management table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the risk management table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the precedence index table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the risk determination table of the project progress management system of this invention. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of a screen which shows the evaluation result of the risk of the project progress management system of this invention to a user. It is the schematic diagram which showed typically the example of the precedence index input definition screen which shows the information of the precedence index referred in the case of calculation of the risk degree of the project progress management system of this invention to a user. It is the flowchart which showed operation | movement of the project progress management system of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

14 Project progress management system (risk analysis system)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 15 Input / output part 151 Input analysis process part 152 Output analysis process part 16 Master management part (management part)
161 Delayed index name master table storage unit 162 Risk category name master table storage unit 163 Leading index name master table storage unit 164 Risk status master table storage unit 17 Data management unit 171 Project progress management table storage unit (project progress management data storage unit)
172 Risk management table storage unit 173 Precedence index table storage unit (preceding index value data storage unit, leading index weight data storage unit)
174 Risk determination table storage unit 18 Analysis unit 181 Precedence index search processing unit 182 Risk degree calculation processing unit 183 Risk determination processing unit

Claims (6)

A risk analysis method for analyzing a risk that occurs in the progress of a project using a computer including a data management unit and an analysis unit,
The management unit
An index for storing the lagging index information for identifying the lagging index serving as an item for evaluating the progress of the project and the preceding index information for identifying the leading index indicating the event that causes the lagging index as an index correspondence data A corresponding data storage unit;
A leading index value data storage unit that stores a leading index value indicating the degree of occurrence of the event indicated by the leading index and the leading index information indicating the leading index in association with each other and stores the leading index value data;
And having
The analysis unit
A command indicating the delay indicator to be evaluated is input from the outside,
In the index corresponding data stored in the index corresponding data storage unit, the preceding index value data storage unit stores the preceding index information associated with the delayed index information indicating the delayed index indicated by the command. Extracting the preceding index value associated in the precedent index value data,
A risk analysis method, comprising: calculating a risk degree indicating a magnitude of a risk in an item indicated by the lag indicator based on the extracted preceding indicator value. In the calculation of the degree of risk, the management unit associates a weight value for weighting the preceding index value with respect to each preceding index, and preceding index information indicating the preceding index, and the preceding index weight data Further having a leading index weight data storage unit for storing as
When the analysis unit extracts the preceding index value, the preceding index weight data stored in the preceding index weight data storage unit is associated with the preceding index information indicating the preceding index of the preceding index value. Further extract weight values,
When calculating the risk degree, for each of the preceding indices, the extracted preceding index value and the weight value are multiplied, and the multiplication result is added to all the preceding indices to obtain the risk degree. The risk analysis method according to claim 1, wherein: The management unit associates threshold information indicating a threshold of the risk degree with a risk name that is a name indicating a magnitude of the risk when the risk degree is within the range of the threshold as risk name determination data. It further has a risk name determination data storage unit for storing,
The said analysis part extracts the said risk name corresponding to the threshold value information in which the calculated said risk degree is contained in the risk name determination data memorize | stored in the said risk name determination data storage part. Or the risk-analysis method of Claim 2. The management unit further includes a project progress management data storage unit that stores information indicating a schedule and a result in an item indicated by the delay indicator of the project as project progress management data in association with the delay indicator information. ,
The risk name determination data storage unit stores the threshold information, information on the progress status of the project item, and the risk name in association with each other, and stores it as risk name determination data.
The analysis unit
In the project progress management data stored in the project progress management data storage unit, the schedule and performance information associated with the delay index information indicating the delay index indicated by the command is extracted,
Determining the progress status of the item indicated by the lag indicator based on the extracted schedule and results information;
In the risk name determination data stored in the risk name determination data storage unit, the progress state information corresponding to the threshold information of the threshold included in the calculated risk degree and including the determined progress state The risk analysis method according to claim 3, wherein the risk name corresponding to is extracted. A risk analysis system comprising a data management unit and an analysis unit,
The management unit
Index correspondence that stores lagging indicator information that identifies a lagging indicator that is an item for evaluating the progress of a project and preceding indicator information that identifies a leading indicator that indicates an event that causes the lagging indicator as index correspondence data A data storage unit;
A leading index value data storage unit that stores a leading index value indicating the degree of occurrence of the event indicated by the leading index and the leading index information indicating the leading index in association with each other and stores the leading index value data;
And having
The analysis unit
A command indicating the delay indicator to be evaluated is input from the outside,
In the index corresponding data stored in the index corresponding data storage unit, the preceding index value data storage unit stores the preceding index information associated with the delayed index information indicating the delayed index indicated by the command. Extracting the preceding index value associated in the precedent index value data,
A risk analysis system that calculates a risk level indicating a magnitude of a risk in an item indicated by a lag indicator based on the extracted preceding indicator value. To analyze the risks that occur in the course of the project,
An index for storing the lagging index information for identifying the lagging index serving as an item for evaluating the progress of the project and the preceding index information for identifying the leading index indicating the event that causes the lagging index as an index correspondence data A corresponding data storage unit;
A leading index value data storage unit that stores a leading index value indicating the degree of occurrence of the event indicated by the leading index and the leading index information indicating the leading index in association with each other and stores the leading index value data;
On a computer with
An external input of a command indicating the slowness indicator to be evaluated;
In the index corresponding data stored in the index corresponding data storage unit, the preceding index value data storage unit stores the preceding index information associated with the delayed index information indicating the delayed index indicated by the command. Extraction of the preceding index value associated in the performed preceding index value data;
Based on the extracted leading index value, calculation of a risk level indicating the magnitude of risk in the item indicated by the lagging index,
Risk analysis program characterized by causing

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