JP2007265115A - System and method for predicting number of persons in disaster area - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To predict the number of persons existing in an assumed disaster area based on real time information acquired immediately after disaster occurrence. <P>SOLUTION: This system 1 for predicting the number of disaster victims comprises a disaster area information storage section 29 for storing information showing a predicted disaster area predicted to be affected by a disaster, a number inquiry section 15 for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices existing in the disaster area determined by information stored by the disaster area information storage section 29, a number-of-disaster-victims prediction section 17 for predicting the number of persons existing in the disaster area based on the acquired number of mobile communication devices, and an output processing section 18 for outputting the prediction result. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for predicting the number of people existing in a disaster area at the time of a disaster, and in particular, based on this, grasping in real time the number of mobile communication devices existing in the disaster area immediately after the disaster occurs. It relates to the technology to predict.

  In the event of a disaster, public organizations (municipalities, the Cabinet Office, the police, the fire department, the Self-Defense Forces), etc. that deal with disasters grasp the number of disaster victims that are expected and respond appropriately to the number of disaster victims. Rescue activities need to be performed. Here, disaster relief activities to be performed vary depending on the scale of the number of disaster victims. Therefore, immediately after the occurrence of a disaster, it is indispensable to quickly grasp the number of victims in order to take an appropriate initial response.

  Therefore, conventionally, for example, survey results of public institutions such as “number of workers, number of students enrolled, number of registered resident cards, population by time zone, population by day of the week” for each specific area of the disaster area, statistical information by notification, etc. The number of people is grasped using static information.

Further, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses a disaster countermeasure support apparatus that uses a result of damage prediction simulation in order to obtain a demand amount such as supplies necessary for disaster recovery.
JP 2003-281324 A

  However, with the conventional prediction method, the accuracy of predicting the number of victims is not always sufficient. Especially in metropolitan areas and the suburbs, there is a great difference in population density between daytime and nighttime, and people move rapidly according to the time of day. Therefore, there is a limit to improving the accuracy of the prediction based on static information as in the prior art.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for predicting the number of people existing in an assumed disaster area based on real-time information acquired immediately after the occurrence of a disaster.

  The system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area according to one embodiment of the present invention is specified based on storage means for storing predicted disaster area information indicating an expected disaster area where a disaster due to a disaster is expected, and the predicted disaster area information. Means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices present in the predicted disaster area; prediction means for predicting the number of persons existing in the predicted disaster area based on the acquired number of mobile communication devices; and the prediction Output means for outputting a prediction result by the means.

  In a preferred embodiment, a means for acquiring earthquake occurrence information including seismic intensity information of an earthquake, and an expected damage area where the damage caused by the earthquake is expected based on the acquired earthquake occurrence information, are stored in the storage means. You may make it further provide the anticipated disaster area specific | specification means stored as anticipated disaster area information.

  In a preferred embodiment, the earthquake occurrence information includes predicted seismic intensity information of each location predicted before the arrival of the S wave of the earthquake based on the observed P wave of the earthquake, and the number of mobile communication devices is calculated. The acquiring means acquires the number of mobile communication devices existing in the predicted disaster area before the S wave of the earthquake reaches the predicted disaster area, and the prediction means is configured to acquire the earthquake in the predicted disaster area. The number of people existing in the affected area may be predicted immediately before the arrival of the S wave.

  In a preferred embodiment, the earthquake occurrence information includes predicted or observed seismic intensity information of each place, and the predicted damaged area specifying means defines an area where the predicted or observed seismic intensity is equal to or higher than a predetermined seismic intensity as the predicted damaged area. You may make it.

  In a preferred embodiment, the predicted disaster area includes a plurality of basic areas, and the means for obtaining the number of mobile communication devices is in order from the basic area where the degree of damage is considered to be large among the predicted disaster areas. The number of mobile communication devices may be acquired.

  In a preferred embodiment, the predicted disaster area includes a plurality of basic areas, and the means for obtaining the number of mobile communication devices includes the mobile communication devices in order from the basic area having the highest population density among the predicted disaster areas. You may make it acquire the number of.

  In a preferred embodiment, the predicted disaster area may include a plurality of basic areas, and the basic areas may include an underground shopping area, a subway, or a building that constitutes a single basic area. In this case, the predicting unit can predict the number of people existing in each basic area, and the output unit can output the number of people predicted for each basic area.

  In a preferred embodiment, the means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices acquires the number of mobile communication devices in order from a basic area that is considered to have a high degree of damage, among the predicted damaged areas. In a basic area that seems to have the same degree, the number of mobile communication devices may be acquired by giving priority to a basic area that is composed of an underground mall or a subway alone.

  In a preferred embodiment, the basic area may be a cell unit covered by one base station of the mobile communication device.

  Hereinafter, a disaster victim number prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overall configuration of a disaster victim number prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment. This system 1 predicts a disaster area due to a disaster immediately after the occurrence of a disaster such as an earthquake, and obtains the number of people in the disaster area in real time immediately after the disaster occurs, such as a mobile phone or a PHS. Predict based on the number of communication devices.

  The disaster victim number prediction system 1 is configured by, for example, a general-purpose computer system, and individual components or functions in the disaster victim number prediction system 1 described below are realized by, for example, executing a computer program. .

  As shown in FIG. 1, the disaster victim number prediction system 1 includes a disaster area prediction unit 11, a cell conversion unit 13 that identifies a cell phone cell included in the disaster area, and the number of cell phones in the identified cell. The number inquiry unit 15 for querying, the number of affected people prediction unit 17 for predicting the number of people in the affected area, the output processing unit 18, the affected area designation unit 19, the disaster impact information storage unit 21, and the basic area information A storage unit 23, a cell phone number storage unit 25 for each cell, and a disaster area information storage unit 29 are provided.

  The disaster impact information storage unit 21 stores information unique to each area where damage is expected to be expanded or suppressed, such as terrain information to be considered when predicting damage due to an earthquake. For example, the disaster impact information storage unit 21 may store information indicating the strength of the ground in each basic area, the degree of housing congestion, the ratio of old buildings, the susceptibility to tsunamis, and the like. Alternatively, a coefficient indicating the extent of damage expansion or suppression based on these pieces of information may be stored.

  The disaster area prediction unit 11 acquires earthquake occurrence information from the external system 3 that provides weather information and the like, and identifies a disaster area that is expected to be damaged by this earthquake based on the earthquake occurrence information.

  Here, the earthquake occurrence information is, for example, a prediction based on a P wave (initial tremor) observed in the vicinity of the earthquake's epicenter and predicting the seismic intensity of each place where the S wave (main motion) has not reached at that time It may be so-called pre-arrival earthquake information including seismic intensity information, or it may include seismic intensity information of various locations actually observed.

  The disaster area prediction unit 11 predicts the extent of damage in each area based on the seismic intensity information or the predicted seismic intensity information included in the earthquake occurrence information. For example, the disaster area prediction unit 11 converts the seismic intensity of each place included in the seismic intensity information into the seismic intensity for each basic area divided into predetermined sections, and for each basic area, the degree of damage based on the seismic intensity, For example, the level is divided into about 10 levels. Furthermore, the disaster area prediction unit 11 refers to the disaster impact information storage unit 21 and corrects the disaster level of each basic area. Then, for example, a basic area having a damage level of a predetermined level or higher (for example, a level of damage 5 or higher) is set as the damaged area.

  Here, the basic area may be determined based on, for example, an administrative section or may be determined based on an arbitrary original section. The basic area may correspond one-to-one with a cell phone cell (a range covered by one base station) described later.

  The disaster area prediction unit 11 stores the predicted disaster area and the predicted disaster level of each disaster area in the disaster area information storage unit 29.

  FIG. 2 shows an example of the disaster area information storage unit 29.

  The disaster area information storage unit 29 has, as data items, a basic area name 291, a disaster level 292, and an expected number of disaster victims 293. In the basic area name 291, the name of the basic area included in the disaster area is set. The number of disaster victims 293 is calculated by the disaster victim number prediction unit 17 described later.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of the basic area information storage unit 23.

  As shown in the figure, the basic area information storage unit 23 includes, as data items, a basic area name 231, a cell No. 232 that is identification information of a cell phone in the basic area, a time zone 233, and a day of the week 234. And a population density 235, the number of contracts 236, and a mobile phone penetration rate 237.

  That is, the basic area information storage unit 23 stores the cell number, the population density of each spare by time zone, the number of mobile phone contracts and the diffusion rate for each basic area.

  For example, the time zone 233 may be divided into daytime, nighttime, and midnight, or a specific time zone (9: 0 to 17:00 in the time zone 1) may be designated.

  In addition, an underground mall, a subway, a building, and the like may be each independently used as one basic area. Buildings such as underground shopping streets, subways, and high-rise buildings are expected to be particularly severely damaged by earthquakes. In some cases, underground shopping malls, subways, buildings, etc. are each configured with a dedicated base station. This is because it is easy to predict the number of people.

  Referring again to FIG. 1, the cell conversion unit 13 refers to the basic area information storage unit 23 and converts the basic area registered as the disaster area in the disaster area information storage unit 29 to the cell number of the mobile phone. When cell conversion is performed, the cell conversion unit 13 notifies the cell number to the number inquiry unit 15 of cell numbers in the order of conversion.

  Here, the cell conversion unit 13 may perform cell conversion in descending order of the damage level 292, for example. This is because the higher the level of damage, the higher the degree of urgency in grasping the number of victims, and the possibility of damage to the mobile phone infrastructure when shaking by S waves occurs, so it is necessary to obtain it before the disaster. . Further, when the disaster level is the same, a basic area constituted by an underground shopping mall or a subway alone may be given priority over other basic areas. This is because underground streets and subways are more dangerous than the ground and are prone to confusion, so it is necessary to determine the number of victims at an early stage. Furthermore, the cell conversion unit 13 may perform cell conversion in descending order of population density 234 in the time zone when the earthquake occurred.

  The number inquiry unit 15 notifies the cell number to the system 5 of the cellular phone company, and receives a report of the number of cellular phones existing in each cell No at that time. The number inquiry unit 15 may make an inquiry to the mobile phone company system 5 in the order received from the cell conversion unit 13. The number inquiry unit 15 stores the number of mobile phones received from the mobile phone company system 5 in the mobile phone number storage unit 25. As will be described later, when a report is received a plurality of times from the mobile phone company system 5, the number inquiry unit 15 stores the received information in the mobile phone number storage unit 25 in each case.

  FIG. 4 shows an example of the mobile phone number storage unit 25.

  As shown in the figure, the mobile phone number storage unit 25 includes, as data items, a cell number 251, a number 252, and a date and time 253 when information on the number is acquired from the mobile phone company system 5.

  Here, when the mobile phone company system 5 receives an inquiry from the number inquiry unit 15, the mobile phone company system 5 immediately reports the number of mobile phones in the cell that each base station grasps at that time (first). Second report). This is particularly effective when the earthquake occurrence information provided from the weather information providing system 3 is earthquake information before reaching the main motion. This is because the mobile phone infrastructure itself may be damaged by an earthquake, so that the number of mobile phones in the affected area can be ascertained before S waves reach each place.

  In addition, after making the first report as described above, the mobile phone company system 5 again sends an inquiry signal to the mobile phone existing in each cell to confirm the number of mobile stations. You may report the number of times. This is because if the mobile phone infrastructure was not damaged by the earthquake, or if the confirmation was completed before the arrival of the S wave, the second report was more mobile than in the first report. This is because the accuracy of the number of telephones is considered high.

The disaster victim number prediction unit 17 refers to the mobile phone number storage unit 25 and the basic area information storage unit 23, and is based on the number of mobile phones in the disaster area. ) Predict the number of For example, the number of victims prediction unit 17 calculates the number of mobile phones for each basic area based on the number of mobile phones for each cell. And based on the penetration rate 237 of each basic area corresponding to the current day of the week and time, the number of people for each basic area is predicted by the following formula. The calculated number of disaster victims is stored in the disaster area information storage unit 29.
Number of victims = Number of mobile phones / Penetration rate

  The output processing unit 18 displays the disaster area information stored in the disaster area information storage unit 29 on the display device and causes the printer to print it. For example, the output processing unit 18 may output the number of disaster victims along with the disaster level of each basic area for each basic area.

  The disaster area designation unit 19 registers the disaster area and the disaster level in the disaster area information storage unit 29 according to the user's designation. For example, instead of the prediction by the disaster area prediction unit 11, the prediction result by another prediction system, the prediction result based on the user's experience, and the like can be registered using the disaster area designation unit 19.

  Thereby, this system can be utilized also at the time of disasters other than an earthquake, for example. In other words, upon receiving notification of the occurrence of a disaster such as a typhoon, a large-scale fire, or an accident at a nuclear power plant, the disaster area and the disaster level are predicted by some method, and registered by using the disaster area designating unit 19, The number of victims of each disaster can be predicted.

  The disaster area designation unit 19 can also be used to correct the prediction result by the disaster area prediction unit 11.

  FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a procedure for predicting the number of victims based on earthquake occurrence information. The procedure of the process in the disaster victim number prediction system 1 having the above-described configuration will be described with reference to FIG.

  First, when an earthquake occurs, earthquake occurrence information provided by the weather information providing system 3 is received (S11).

  When the earthquake occurrence information is received, the stricken area prediction unit 11 identifies the seismic intensity of a predetermined basic area based on the seismic intensity information of each place included in the earthquake occurrence information (S12). Then, based on the seismic intensity of each basic area and the disaster impact information stored in the disaster impact information storage unit 21, the damage level of each basic area is specified (S13). The disaster area prediction unit 11 registers a basic area with a disaster level of a specified level or more as a disaster area in the disaster area information storage unit 29 together with the disaster level (S14).

  The cell conversion unit 13 refers to the basic area information storage unit 23 and identifies the cell phone cell belonging to the affected area by the cell number (S15).

  The number inquiry unit 15 inquires of the mobile phone company system 5 about the number of mobile phones in the cell belonging to the disaster area, acquires each number, and stores it in the mobile phone number storage unit 25 (S16).

  Based on the number of mobile phones for each basic area and the penetration rate of mobile phones stored in the basic area information storage unit 23, the number of victims prediction unit 17 predicts the number of victims for each basic area, The data is stored in the storage unit 29 (S17).

  Based on the disaster area information stored in the disaster area information storage unit 29, the output processing unit 18 displays the disaster area, the expected disaster level for each disaster area, and the number of victims expected to exist in the disaster area. The data is output to the apparatus or printer (S18).

  According to the present embodiment, the number of mobile phones that are actually present in the disaster area is predicted with extremely high accuracy by grasping the number of mobile phones in real time at almost the time when the disaster occurred, instead of static statistical information. can do. As a result, an effective and efficient disaster countermeasure system can be established in a very short time after a disaster occurs.

  The above-described embodiments of the present invention are examples for explaining the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention only to those embodiments. Those skilled in the art can implement the present invention in various other modes without departing from the gist of the present invention.

1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a disaster victim number prediction system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. An example of the disaster area information storage unit 29 is shown. An example of the basic area information storage unit 23 is shown. An example of the mobile phone number storage unit 25 is shown. It is a flowchart which shows the prediction process procedure of the number of victims based on earthquake occurrence information.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Disaster victim number prediction system 3 Weather information provision system 5 Mobile telephone company system 11 Disaster area prediction part 13 Cell conversion part 15 Number inquiry part 17 Disaster victim number prediction part 18 Output processing part 19 Disaster area designation part 21 Disaster influence degree information storage Unit 23 Basic area information storage unit 25 Mobile phone number storage unit 29 Disaster area information storage unit

Claims (11)

Storage means for storing predicted disaster area information indicating an expected disaster area where a disaster due to a disaster is expected;
Means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices existing in the predicted disaster area identified based on the predicted disaster area information;
Prediction means for predicting the number of people in the predicted disaster area based on the number of the acquired mobile communication devices,
A system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area, comprising: output means for outputting a prediction result by the prediction means. Means for acquiring earthquake occurrence information including seismic intensity information;
The expected disaster area specifying means for specifying an expected disaster area where the earthquake is expected to be damaged based on the acquired earthquake occurrence information and storing the expected damage area information in the storage means as the expected damage area information. System for predicting the number of people in a disaster area. The earthquake occurrence information includes predicted seismic intensity information of each place predicted before the arrival of the S wave of the earthquake based on the observed P wave of the earthquake,
The means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices acquires the number of mobile communication devices existing in the predicted disaster area before the S wave of the earthquake reaches the predicted disaster area,
3. The system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area according to claim 2, wherein the prediction means predicts the number of people in the disaster area immediately before the S wave of the earthquake reaches the predicted disaster area. The earthquake occurrence information includes predicted or observed seismic intensity information of each place,
3. The predicted number of people in a disaster area according to claim 2, wherein the predicted disaster area specifying means sets the area where the predicted or observed seismic intensity is equal to or greater than a predetermined seismic intensity as the predicted disaster area. The predicted disaster area includes a plurality of basic areas,
The means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices is configured to acquire the number of mobile communication devices in order from a basic area where the degree of damage is considered to be large in the predicted disaster area. Number prediction system. The predicted disaster area includes a plurality of basic areas,
3. The system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area according to claim 2, wherein the means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices acquires the number of mobile communication devices in order from a basic area having a high population density in the predicted disaster area. The predicted disaster area includes a plurality of basic areas,
The basic area includes an underground mall, a subway or a building that constitutes one basic area alone,
The prediction means predicts the number of people existing in each basic area,
3. The system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area according to claim 2, wherein the output means outputs the number of people predicted for each basic area.   The means for acquiring the number of mobile communication devices acquires the number of mobile communication devices in order from the basic area where the degree of damage is considered to be large among the predicted damaged areas, and the degree of damage seems to be the same. 8. The system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area according to claim 7, wherein the number of mobile communication devices is acquired by giving priority to a basic area composed of an underground mall or a subway alone.   The system for predicting the number of people in a disaster area according to any one of claims 5 to 8, wherein the basic area is a cell unit covered by one base station of a mobile communication device. Storing the expected disaster area information indicating the expected disaster area where the disaster is expected to occur in a storage means;
Acquiring the number of mobile communication devices existing in the predicted disaster area based on the predicted disaster area information stored in the storage means;
Predicting the number of people in the predicted disaster area based on the number of the acquired mobile communication devices; and
Outputting the prediction result, and a method for predicting the number of people in a disaster area. A computer program,
Storing the expected disaster area information indicating the expected disaster area where the disaster is expected to occur in a storage means;
Acquiring the number of mobile communication devices existing in the predicted disaster area based on the predicted disaster area information stored in the storage means;
Obtaining the number of mobile communication devices present in the predicted disaster area;
Predicting the number of people in the predicted disaster area based on the number of the acquired mobile communication devices;
A computer program for predicting the number of people in a disaster area, causing the computer to execute the step of outputting the prediction result.

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