JP2006350732A - Tire predictive number calculation system and program for calculating tire predictive number - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately calculate the predictive number of tires. <P>SOLUTION: A tire predictive number calculation system 100 calculates the predictive number D of the specific tires sold during a specific period for every tire size on the basis of a tire predictive number A when a new car calculated by a predictive number calculating section 131 when a new car, a tire predictive number B when tire replacement calculated by a tire predictive number calculating section 132 when the tire replacement, and a sales rate C of the specific tire during the specific period determined by sold results of the specific tire during a period before the specific period. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a predicted tire number calculation device and a predicted tire number calculation program for calculating a predicted number of tires to be sold using the number of tires attached to a new vehicle.

Conventionally, for example, the estimated number of new vehicles to be sold is calculated by using information indicating the transition relationship between the vehicle type before replacement and the vehicle type after replacement, and information indicating the retention period of the vehicle before replacement. A new vehicle predicted number calculating device is provided (see, for example, Patent Document 1). As a result, it can be used for production planning and sales planning of new vehicles.
JP 2001-167079 A

  Since the above-mentioned new vehicle predicted number calculating device can calculate the predicted number of new vehicles to be sold, it can be considered that the predicted number of tires according to the predicted number of new vehicles can also be calculated.

  However, the predicted number of tires varies not only with the predicted number of new cars to be sold, but also with the replacement cycle of tires installed on existing cars that have already been sold. The predicted number cannot be calculated with high accuracy.

  Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above points, and an object of the present invention is to provide a predicted tire number calculating apparatus and a predicted tire number calculating program capable of accurately calculating the predicted number of tires. .

  In order to solve the above problems, the present invention not only uses the predicted number of tires to be mounted on a new vehicle sold in a predetermined period, but also in existing vehicles that have been sold in each predetermined period before the predetermined period. It is sold in the future by using the sales rate for each tire size of the specific tire determined by the cycle in which the mounted specific tire is replaced, and also the sales performance of the specific tire in the predetermined period before the predetermined period. The specific tires sold in a given period include not only the predicted number of new cars related to the predicted number of new cars, but also the replacement cycle factors related to the cycle in which specific tires installed in already sold cars are replaced by consumers. Can be calculated accurately for each tire size.

  In the above invention, the specific tire prediction number calculation unit includes a new vehicle tire prediction number calculated by the new vehicle tire prediction number calculation unit, and a replacement tire prediction number calculated by the replacement tire prediction number calculation unit. The predicted number of specific tires sold in the predetermined period may be calculated for each tire size and for each area based on the sales rate for each area in the predetermined period.

  In the above-described invention, the specific tire predicted number calculation unit predicts the first specific tire predicted number that is the predicted number of specific tires sold in a predetermined period and the prediction of specific tires that are sold in a predetermined period before the predetermined period. By multiplying the ratio of the second specific tire predicted number that is the number and the number of sold specific tires in the previous predetermined period, the predicted number of specific tires in the predetermined period is set as the sales number-based specific tire predicted number You may calculate for every tire size.

  According to the present invention, the predicted number of tires can be calculated with high accuracy.

(Configuration of tire prediction number calculation device)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment.

  As illustrated in FIG. 1, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 includes an input unit 110, a storage unit 120, a processing unit 130, and a display unit 140.

  The input unit 110 acquires information related to tires attached to a new car or a used car, and examples thereof include a keyboard. Various types of information may be read by a reading device (not shown).

  The storage unit 120 stores various data acquired by the input unit 110 and various data read by a reading device (not shown).

  The processing unit 130 calculates the predicted number of specific tires that are specific types of tires sold in a specific period (predetermined period) based on various data stored in the storage unit 120. For example, the CPU ( (Not shown), RAM (not shown), ROM (not shown), and the like. The specific tire in the present embodiment will be described as a winter tire (for example, a studless tire) that is difficult to slip on the snow surface. The specific period is described as a year in the present embodiment, but is not limited to this, and may be indicated by a quarter period or the like.

  The processing unit 130 in this embodiment includes a new vehicle predicted number calculation unit 131, a replacement tire predicted number calculation unit 132, and a winter tire predicted number calculation unit 133.

The predicted number of new cars calculation unit 131 calculates the predicted number of tires to be installed in a new car based on the predicted number of new cars sold in a specific period and the type of tire size of the tire to be installed in the new car. The number A is calculated for each tire size (refer to the process for calculating the predicted number of new tires shown in FIG. 3 described later).
The replacement tire predicted number calculation unit 132 has the same period as the specific period, and the number of tires attached to the existing car sold in each predetermined period before the specific period and the specific type of tire. Based on the cycle in which the specific tire is replaced, the predicted number of replacement of the specific tire in the specific period is calculated for each tire size as a predicted tire number B at the time of replacement (shown in FIG. 7 described later). (Refer to the process for calculating the estimated number of tires when replacing a tire)

  The winter tire prediction number calculation unit 133 includes a new vehicle time prediction number A calculated by the new vehicle time prediction number calculation unit 131, and a replacement tire prediction number B calculated by the replacement tire prediction number calculation unit 132. Based on the sales rate C for each tire size of the specific tire in the specific period determined by the sales performance of the specific tire in the predetermined period before the specific period, the predicted number D of specific tires sold in the specific period is It is calculated for each tire size (see the winter tire prediction number calculation process shown in FIG. 13 described later).

(Operation of the predicted tire number calculation device)
Next, the operation of the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 in this embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an operation of the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment.

  As shown in FIG. 2, in S100, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 sets the predicted number of tires to be installed in the new car as the predicted number A of new tires based on the predicted number of new cars sold in a specific period. It is calculated for each tire size (calculation process for the predicted number of tires for a new vehicle). Details of this new vehicle time tire predicted number calculation process will be described later.

  In S200, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 determines the number of tires attached to an existing car that has been sold in a period before the specific period, and a cycle in which winter tires that are specific types of tires are replaced. Based on this, the predicted number of replacement tires for winter in a specific period is calculated for each tire size as the predicted tire replacement number B at the time of replacement (processing for calculating the predicted number of replacement tires at the time of replacement). The details of the predicted tire number calculation process at the time of replacement will be described later.

  In S300, the predicted tire number calculating device 100 determines the new tire predicted tire number A calculated in S100, the replacement tire predicted tire number B calculated in S200, and the winter tire in each period before the specific period. The predicted number of winter tires sold in the specific period is calculated as the predicted number D of winter tires based on the sales rate C for each tire size of the winter tire in the specific period determined by the sales performance of Winter tire prediction number calculation processing). Details of the winter tire prediction number calculation process will be described later.

  Next, the process for calculating the predicted number of new tires in S100 will be described in detail. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing processing for calculating the predicted number of new tires in the present embodiment.

  As shown in FIG. 3, in S <b> 101, the predicted tire number calculation apparatus 100 reads from the storage unit 120 the number of new vehicle sales (FIG. 4) for each vehicle type stored in the storage unit 120. Here, as shown in FIG. 4, the number of new vehicle sales by vehicle type is shown for each past quarter.

  In S103, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 calculates the predicted number of new cars sold for a specific period (here, 2005 shown in FIG. 4) for each model based on the number of new cars sold (FIG. 4). To do.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 4, the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 is configured to use a period before the specific period 2005 (..., 1st to 4th 2003, 1st to 4th 2004). Based on the time-series changes in the number of new cars sold in (1), the number of predicted new cars in 2005 is calculated for each model by using regression analysis or the like.

  When the predicted number of new cars does not fall within the preset appropriate numerical value range, the predicted tire number calculating device 100 corrects the predicted number of new cars so that the predicted number of new cars falls within the appropriate numerical range. May be. Alternatively, if the predicted number of new cars does not fall within the preset appropriate numerical range, the predicted number of tires calculation device 100 does not use the calculated predicted number of new cars, but the predicted number of new cars input by the user. May be used.

  In FIG. 4, only the predicted number of new cars in 2005 is shown, but the predicted number of new cars in 2006 (or 2007 ...) is also the same as above, with new car sales in each period prior to 2006. It can be calculated for each vehicle type based on the time series change of the number.

  In S <b> 105, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 reads the composition ratio (FIG. 5) of the tire size for each vehicle type from the storage unit 120. Here, as shown in FIG. 5, the composition ratio of the tire size for each vehicle type is shown for each quarter of each year.

  In S107, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 calculates the predicted tire size composition ratio (FIG. 5) for a specific period (in this case, 2005) for each vehicle model based on the tire size composition ratio (FIG. 5) for each vehicle type. calculate.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 5, the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 is configured to use a period before the specific period 2005 (the first period to the fourth period in 2003, the first period to the fourth period in 2004). ) Is used to calculate a predicted tire size component ratio in 2005 (see FIG. 5) for each vehicle type by using regression analysis or the like.

  When the predicted tire tire composition ratio does not fall within the preset proper numerical value range, the tire size prediction apparatus 100 calculates the tire size so that the predicted tire size constituent ratio falls within the proper numerical value range. The predicted composition ratio may be corrected. Alternatively, the predicted tire number calculating device 100 is input by the user without using the calculated predicted tire size ratio when the predicted tire size ratio does not fall within the preset appropriate numerical range. A predicted component size of the tire size may be used.

  In S109, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 calculates the predicted number of tires to be attached to the new car in a specific period based on the predicted number of new cars calculated in S103 and the composition ratio of tire sizes calculated in S107. The predicted number of new tires (see FIG. 6) is calculated for each vehicle type and tire size.

  For example, when the predicted number of cars A in 2005 is 950000 (column 1 in FIG. 4), and the prediction composition ratio of cars A and tire sizes (165 / 70R14) in 2005 is 30% (column 2 in FIG. 5). The predicted number of tires calculation device 100 calculates the predicted composition ratio “30%” of the predicted number of cars “237500” × 4 (number of tires per car) × A cars / tire size (165 / 70R14). Calculated as the estimated number of new tires “114,000” (column 3 in FIG. 6).

  In S111, the calculation is made in S109 based on the new vehicle information including the number of new cars to be remodeled in the specific period, the number of new cars to be newly introduced in the specific period, and the number of tires purchased separately from the new car. Increase or decrease the predicted number of new tires. Note that the predicted tire number calculation device 100 may increase or decrease the predicted number of new tires by a user input operation.

  In S113, the predicted number of new tires for each vehicle type and tire size in S111 is sorted into the predicted number A of new tires for each vehicle size.

  Next, the tire replacement number calculation process at the time of replacement in S200 will be described in detail.

  As shown in FIG. 7, in S201, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 determines that the initial registration year-specific vehicle type possession number data (see FIG. 8) and the initial registration year-specific vehicle type tire size composition ratio data (see FIG. 9). Is read from the storage unit 120.

  Here, the number-of-owned vehicle-type data for each initial registration year (in this case, by prefecture) is data that indicates the number of vehicles that the first-time registration year currently exists and is held for each vehicle type and year. For example, the existing number of cars A owned at the end of March in the first registration year “2003” is 1500000 (FIG. 8, column 4).

  The tire size composition ratio data for each vehicle type for the first registration year is data indicating the composition ratio of the tire size for each vehicle model in the first registration year for each vehicle type and for each year. For example, the composition ratio of the first registration year “2003” of the A car is 30% (165 / 70R14), 30% (175 / 70R14), and 40% (185 / 70R14) (FIG. 9, column 5).

  In S203, the number of tires for each initial registration year (see FIG. 10) based on the number-of-owned vehicle type data for each initial registration year (see FIG. 8) and the tire size composition data for each initial registration year (see FIG. 9). For each vehicle type and tire size.

  For example, the existing number of cars A in the first registration year “2003” is 1500000 (FIG. 8, column 4), and the composition ratio of the tire size (165 / 70R14) in the first registration year “2003” is 30% (FIG. 9 column 5), the predicted tire number calculating device 100 calculates “1500000” × 4 (the number of tires per vehicle) × “30%” from the vehicle A in the first registration year “2003”. The number of tires of the tire size (165 / 70R14) is calculated as “1800000” (FIG. 10, column 6).

  In S205, the number of tires (see FIG. 10) for each vehicle type and tire size in S203 is sorted into the number of tires for each tire size (see FIG. 11).

  In S207, replacement cycle data (see FIG. 12) is read from the storage unit 120. Here, as shown in FIG. 12, the replacement cycle data includes a cycle in which winter tires sold in a certain period are replaced (a replacement cycle), and a rate at which winter tires are replaced in the cycle ( Replacement rate) for each tire size. This replacement rate is calculated as follows: when a winter tire is purchased by a predetermined number of consumers in a certain period (the number of consumers who replace winter tires in a certain replacement cycle based on that period / the predetermined number Number) × 100%.

  In S209, based on replacement cycle data (see FIG. 12), the predicted number of winter tires to be replaced in a specific period is calculated for each tire size as a predicted replacement tire number B at the time of replacement.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 12, the rate at which winter tires of tire size 165 / 60R14 are replaced every year is 2% (FIG. 12, column 9), and is registered for the first time one year before the specific period. Since the number of tires in the year “2004” is 980000 (FIG. 11, column 7), “2%” × “980000” is a part of the estimated number of tires B at the time of replacement in 2005, which is a specific period, “19600” ".

  Similarly, the rate at which winter tires of the same tire size are replaced every two years is 8% (column 10 in FIG. 12), and tires in the first registration year “2003” two years ago for a specific period. Therefore, “8%” × “1900000” is calculated as a part “152000” of the predicted number of tires B at the time of replacement in 2005, which is a specific period.

  Thus, based on the replacement rate for each replacement cycle of the tire size 165 / 60R14 and the number of tires in each period prior to the specific period, the estimated number of tires at the time of replacement in 2005, which is the specific period. B (“19600” + “152000”...) Is calculated.

  Next, the winter tire prediction number calculation process in S300 will be described in detail.

  As shown in FIG. 13, in S301, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 determines the predicted number A of new vehicle tires A (S100) in a specific period (here, 2005) and the predicted number B of tires at replacement in the specific period ( S200) and the sales rate C of the winter tire determined by the sales performance of the winter tire are read from the storage unit 120 for each tire size.

  In S303, the predicted tire number calculating device 100 determines the number of predicted new tires A for a new vehicle in the specific period, the predicted number B of replacement tires in the specified period, and the winter tire determined by the sales performance of winter tires. Based on the sales rate C, the predicted number of winter tires sold in the specific period is calculated for each tire size as the predicted winter tire number D.

  For example, the predicted number of winter tires D for the specific period is calculated as follows: (A predicted number of new tires for new cars in the specific period A + predicted number B of tires for replacement during the specific period) × Winter tire sales rate C for each tire size To do.

  As described above, in the present invention, the demand forecast for winter tires can be accurately performed based on the demand forecast for summer tires. Specifically, if the number of winter tires produced based on the expected number of winter tires is calculated to be greater than the actual number sold, the excess winter tires not sold will be Stock. In this case, a warehouse for securing an excess amount of winter tires is required, and extra costs are required. Furthermore, if excessive winter tires are remodeled and there is not much demand for winter tires in the following year, a large loss will be incurred.

  On the other hand, if the number of winter tires produced based on the predicted number of winter tires is calculated to be less than the actual number sold, many winter tires will be missed. You will not be able to receive the benefits you need. For this reason, in particular, it is very important to accurately calculate the predicted number of winter tires sold in the winter season.

  In the present invention, not only the estimated number of tires to be installed in a new vehicle sold in a specific period, but also a cycle in which winter tires installed in existing vehicles sold in each period prior to the specific period are replaced. Furthermore, by using the sales rate of winter tires determined based on the sales performance of winter tires in the period prior to the specific period, the predicted number of winter tires sold in the specific period is accurate for each tire size. It can be calculated well.

  Furthermore, not only the predicted number of new cars to be sold in a specific period, but also the number of new cars that will be remodeled in a specific period and the number of new cars that are newly introduced in a specific period will be sold in a specific period. The number of new cars can be calculated more accurately, and the predicted number of winter tires sold in a specific period can be calculated more accurately.

  Note that the predicted number of winter tires in the embodiment is not limited to the process shown in FIG. That is, the process for calculating the predicted number of winter tires in this modified example is the number of winter tires actually sold in the period prior to the specific period (2005), sold in the specific period and the previous period. The predicted number of winter tires sold in the specific period may be calculated using the predicted number of winter tires. Hereinafter, this modified example will be described in detail.

  As shown in FIG. 14, in S311, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 calculates the predicted tire number A (S100) at the time of new vehicle in the specific period, the predicted tire number B (S200) at the time of replacement in the specific period, and winter. The sales ratio C of winter tires in a specific period determined by the sales performance of tires for tires is read from the storage unit 120 for each tire size.

  Further, the storage unit 120 stores, for each tire size, the predicted number A ′ of new tires at the time of the previous vehicle, the predicted number B ′ of replacement tires at the previous period, and the sales rate C ′ of winter tires at the previous period. Read from.

  The estimated number of new tires A ′, the estimated number of replacement tires B ′ at the time of replacement, and the sales rate C ′ of winter tires are the estimated number of tires A at the time of new vehicle, the estimated number B of replacement tires, and the sales rate of winter tires. This is calculated by the same process as the process until C is calculated (see FIG. 13).

  In S313, the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 determines that the winter tires to be sold in the specific period based on the predicted number A of new tires, the predicted number B of replacement tires, and the sales rate C of winter tires in the specific period. The predicted number of tires is calculated for each tire size as the first winter tire predicted number D (first specific tire predicted number).

  For example, the first winter tire prediction number D = (new vehicle tire prediction number A + replacement tire prediction number B) × winter tire sales rate C in the specific period is calculated for each tire size. The process of S313 is the same as the process of S303 described above.

  In S315, prediction of winter tires sold in the previous period based on the predicted number A ′ of new vehicle tires, the estimated number B ′ of replacement tires in the previous period, and the sales rate C ′ of winter tires in the previous period. The number is calculated for each tire size as the second winter tire predicted number D ′ (second specific tire predicted number).

  For example, the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 may calculate the second winter tire predicted number D ′ = (new vehicle tire predicted number A ′ + replacement tire predicted number B ′) × winter tire sales rate in the previous period. C ′ is calculated for each tire size. The process of S315 is the same as the process of S303 described above.

  In S317, based on the first winter tire prediction number D calculated in S313 and the second winter tire prediction number D ′ calculated in S315, winter is performed from a period before the specific period to the specific period. The rate at which the predicted number of tires is increased (elongation rate E = D / D ′) is calculated for each tire size.

  In S319, the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 is sold in the specific period by multiplying the growth rate E calculated in S317 by the sales number F of winter tires sold in the previous period. The predicted number of winter tires is calculated for each tire size as a sales number-based winter tire predicted number G (sales number-based specific tire predicted number).

  In this case, by using not only the predicted number of specific tires in numerical analysis but also the actual number of winter tires sold in the past, the predicted number of winter tires sold in a specific period can be improved with higher accuracy. Can be calculated.

  Note that the predicted tire number calculating device 100 does not calculate the sales number-based winter tire predicted number G calculated by this process when the above-described growth rate E exceeds a threshold (for example, 200%). The predicted number D of winter tires calculated by the process shown in FIG. 13 may be adopted.

(First change example)
In addition, the process of the estimated tire number calculation apparatus in the embodiment is not limited to the process illustrated in FIG. 2, and may be the process illustrated in FIG. 15. That is, the process of the predicted tire number calculation device in this modification may execute the process of S400 shown in FIG. 15 in addition to the processes of S100 to S300 shown in FIG. Note that the processes from S100 to S300 shown in FIG. 15 are the same as the processes from S100 to S300 shown in FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 15, in S400, the predicted tire number calculation device 100 determines the predicted winter tire number D (see FIG. 13) calculated in S300 (or the sales number-based winter tire predicted number G (see FIG. 14)). ) Is multiplied by the sales rate H for each region in the specific period, the number of winter tires sold for each region in the specific period is calculated as the predicted number of winter tires D (or sales-based winter) Calculated for each tire size as the predicted number of tires G).

  In this case, by using the sales rate H for each region in a specific period, the predicted number of winter tires to be sold in a specific region and the predicted number of winter tires to be produced in a specific company are calculated. It is possible to calculate with high accuracy. As a result, a more appropriate sales plan or production plan can be drafted.

(Second modification)
As shown in FIG. 16 (a), the predicted tire number calculating device in the embodiment uses a regression analysis or the like based on a time-series change in the number of new car sales in each period prior to the specific period. Calculates the predicted number of new cars in a specific period (the total number of new cars predicted for the first to fourth period 2005 shown in FIG. 16, see S103 in FIG. 3). Instead, the following changes may be made.

  That is, the predicted tire number calculation device in this modification example is based on the actual number of new car sales in any one of the specific periods described above, and in each period of the specific period already calculated by using regression analysis or the like. The predicted number of new cars may be changed.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 16 (a), after the predicted number of new cars in the first period to the fourth period of 2005, which is the specific period, is calculated, the specific period is shown in FIG. 16 (b). If there is a new car sales unit actually sold in the first period of 2005, the estimated tire number calculation device will calculate the actual new car sales unit in the first period of 2005 and the first year of 2005. Based on the actual number of new car sales in each previous year, a regression analysis or the like is used to change the predicted number of new cars already calculated for the second through fourth quarters of 2005 (FIG. 16 (c)). And (d) is the same as FIG. 16 (b)).

  In this case, the predicted tire number calculation device changes the predicted number of new cars already calculated based on the actual number of new cars sold in any one of the specific periods, so that A can be calculated more appropriately.

  In the present embodiment and each modified example, the specific tire is described as a winter tire, but the specific tire may be a summer tire or the like without being limited thereto.

  Note that the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 may add the number of winter tires in stock to the calculated predicted winter tire number D or sales number-based winter tire predicted number G.

(program)
The predicted tire number calculating program operating in the predicted tire number calculating apparatus 100 functions as a new tire predicted tire number calculating unit 131, a replacement tire predicted number calculating unit 132, and a winter tire predicted number calculating unit 133. is there. The predicted tire number calculation program may be recorded on a recording medium. Examples of the recording medium include a hard disk, a flexible disk, a compact disk, an IC chip, and a cassette tape.

  Although an example of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not particularly limited, and the specific configuration and the like of each part can be appropriately changed in design. Further, the configuration of the embodiment and the configuration of each modified example can be combined. Further, the actions and effects of the embodiment and each modified example are merely a list of the most preferable actions and effects resulting from the present invention, and the actions and effects according to the present invention are those described in the embodiment and each modified example. It is not limited to.

It is a figure which shows schematic structure of the tire estimated number calculation apparatus in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows operation | movement of the tire predicted number calculation apparatus in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the new vehicle time tire prediction number calculation process in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the number of new car sales according to vehicle type in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the component ratio of the tire size according to vehicle type in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the prediction number of tires at the time of a new vehicle for every year and every vehicle type in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the tire number calculation process at the time of replacement by purchase in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the vehicle number possession number data for every first registration year in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the tire size composition ratio data according to the first registration year every vehicle type in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the number of tires for every first registration year in this embodiment, every vehicle type, and every tire size. It is a figure which shows the number of tires for every first registration year and every tire size in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows replacement cycle data in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the winter tire prediction number calculation process in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the other example of the winter tire prediction number calculation process in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows operation | movement of the tire predicted number calculation apparatus in a 1st modification. It is a figure which shows the prediction number of new vehicles in the 2nd example of a change.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 ... Tire prediction number calculation apparatus, 110 ... Input part, 120 ... Memory | storage part, 130 ... Processing part, 131 ... New vehicle time prediction number calculation part, 132 ... Replacement tire prediction number calculation part, 133 ... Winter tire prediction number Calculation unit, 140 ... display unit

Claims (8)

Based on the predicted number of new cars sold in a given period and the type of tire size of the tires to be attached to the new car, the predicted number of tires to be attached to the new car is calculated for each tire size as the predicted number of tires at the time of the new car. New vehicle tire prediction number calculation unit,
Based on the number of tires installed in existing vehicles sold in each predetermined period prior to the predetermined period and a cycle in which a specific tire that is a specific type of tire is replaced, the specific period is determined in the predetermined period. The estimated number of tires at the time of replacement calculated for each tire size as the predicted number of tires at the time of replacement as the predicted number of tires at the time of replacement,
The predicted number of tires at the time of new vehicle, the predicted number of tires at the time of replacement, and the sales rate for each tire size of the specific tire determined by the sales performance of the specific tire in a predetermined period before the predetermined period. A predicted tire number calculating device, comprising: a specific tire predicted number calculating unit that calculates, for each tire size, the predicted number of the specific tires sold in the predetermined period.   The specific tire prediction number calculation unit includes the new vehicle time tire prediction number calculated by the new vehicle time tire prediction number calculation unit, and the replacement tire prediction number calculated by the replacement tire prediction number calculation unit. The predicted number of the specific tires sold in the predetermined period is calculated for each tire size and for each area based on the sales rate for each area in the predetermined period. The tire predicted number calculating device described.   The specific tire predicted number calculating unit is configured to predict a first specific tire predicted number that is a predicted number of the specific tires sold in the predetermined period and a prediction of the specific tires that are sold in a predetermined period before the predetermined period. Multiplying the ratio of the number of second specific tires, which is the number of tires, with the number of sold specific tires in the previous predetermined period, the number of sales of the specific tires in the predetermined period is specified based on the number of sales. 2. The predicted tire number calculating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the predicted tire number is calculated for each tire size.   The predicted tire number calculating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the specific tire is a winter tire. Computer
Based on the predicted number of new cars sold in a given period and the type of tire size of the tires to be attached to the new car, the predicted number of tires to be attached to the new car is calculated for each tire size as the predicted number of tires at the time of the new car. New vehicle tire prediction number calculation unit,
A cycle that is the same period as the predetermined period, and the number of tires mounted on an existing car that has been sold in each predetermined period before the predetermined period, and a cycle in which a specific tire that is a specific type of tire is replaced. Based on the above, the replacement tire prediction number calculation unit for calculating the predicted number of replacement of the specific tire in the predetermined period for each tire size as the replacement tire prediction number,
Predicted number of tires for new vehicle calculated by the predicted number of tires for new vehicle, calculation of predicted number of tires for replacement by the predicted number of tires for replacement by tire, and a predetermined time before the predetermined period Specific that calculates the predicted number of the specific tires to be sold in the predetermined period for each tire size based on the sales rate for each tire size of the specific tires determined by the sales performance of the specific tire in the period A program for calculating the predicted number of tires, which functions as a predicted number of tires calculation unit.   The specific tire prediction number calculation unit includes the new vehicle time tire prediction number calculated by the new vehicle time tire prediction number calculation unit, and the replacement tire prediction number calculated by the replacement tire prediction number calculation unit. 6. The predicted number of the specific tires sold in the predetermined period is calculated for each tire size and for each area based on the sales rate for each area in the predetermined period. The program for calculating the predicted number of tires described.   The specific tire predicted number calculating unit is configured to predict a first specific tire predicted number that is a predicted number of the specific tires sold in the predetermined period and a prediction of the specific tires that are sold in a predetermined period before the predetermined period. Multiplying the ratio of the number of second specific tires, which is the number of tires, with the number of sold specific tires in the previous predetermined period, the number of sales of the specific tires in the predetermined period is specified based on the number of sales. 6. The predicted tire number calculation program according to claim 5, wherein the predicted tire number is calculated for each tire size.   The said specific tire is a winter tire, The program for tire prediction number calculation of Claim 5 characterized by the above-mentioned.

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