JP4944416B2 - Tire replacement number calculation device and tire replacement number calculation program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a tire replacement number calculation device and a tire replacement number calculation program for calculating the number of tires mounted on a vehicle.

  Conventionally, a new vehicle forecast that calculates the predicted number of new vehicles to be sold by using information indicating the transition relationship between the vehicle type before replacement and the vehicle type after replacement, and information indicating the retention period of the vehicle before replacement A number calculation device has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). Thereby, since the demand of a new vehicle can be predicted, it can be used for a production plan, a sales plan, etc. of a new vehicle.

By the way, in order to predict the demand for tires mounted on a vehicle, a regular replacement cycle of tires already sold (for example, replacement of tires every two years) is acquired for each tire size, and a certain period There has been proposed a tire replacement number calculating device that calculates the number of tire replacements for each tire size.
JP 2001-167079 A

  However, the vehicle owner does not always change tires according to a regular change cycle, and is actually irregular (for example, the first change after 3 years, the second change after 7 years, etc.) Sometimes tires are replaced. For this reason, the tire replacement number calculating device cannot accurately calculate the number of tires to be replaced when a certain time elapses even if a regular replacement cycle is used.

  Accordingly, the present invention has been made in view of the above points, and an object thereof is to provide a tire replacement number calculating device and a tire replacement number calculating program capable of calculating the number of tire replacements with higher accuracy. .

  In order to solve the above problems, the present invention selects a vehicle life random number to determine a vehicle life time, selects a tire life random number based on the vehicle life time, and determines a tire replacement time. In order to determine the irregular tire replacement time using a relationship close to the vehicle's life time, the number of tire replacements is calculated with high accuracy in accordance with the actual processing that tires are actually irregularly replaced. can do.

  In addition, the present invention provides an irregular tire within a range not exceeding the vehicle life time period by sequentially determining the tire replacement time for each sold vehicle until the accumulated time of the tire replacement time exceeds the vehicle life time. Since the replacement time can be determined, the number of tire replacements can be calculated with higher accuracy.

  According to the present invention, the number of tire replacements can be calculated with higher accuracy.

(Configuration of tire replacement number calculation device)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a tire replacement number calculating device 100 according to the present embodiment. As illustrated in FIG. 1, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 includes an input unit 10, a storage unit 20, a processing unit 30, and a display unit 40.

  The input unit 10 acquires information about a vehicle or a tire, and examples thereof include a keyboard.

  The storage unit 20 corresponds to a vehicle life curve (FIG. 4 to be described later) constituted by a vehicle life time that is a vehicle life time and a predetermined number of vehicle life random numbers (here, uniform random numbers) corresponding to the vehicle life time. Tire replacement curve (a figure to be described later) composed of a tire replacement time, which is a replacement time of a tire mounted on a vehicle, and a predetermined number of tire life random numbers (here, uniform random numbers) corresponding to the tire replacement time. Information corresponding to 5) is stored. The vehicle life time and the tire replacement time may be configured by random numbers.

  In the present embodiment, the vehicle life random number or the uniform random number corresponding to the vehicle life random number is associated with an actual vehicle life distribution that is a distribution of actual life periods of a plurality of sold vehicles. In addition, the tire life random number or a uniform random number corresponding to the tire life random number is associated with an actual tire life distribution that is a distribution of actual life times of tires mounted on a plurality of sold vehicles.

  In addition, although the said actual vehicle life distribution is comprised by the Weibull distribution and the said actual tire life distribution is comprised by normal distribution, it is needless to say that it is not limited to this.

  The processing unit 30 includes a vehicle life time determination unit 31, a tire replacement time determination unit 32, and a tire replacement number calculation unit 33. For example, a CPU (not shown), a RAM (not shown), a ROM (Not shown).

  The vehicle life time determination unit 31 sequentially selects the vehicle life random numbers to thereby sell vehicles sold in each predetermined period (for example, registered year t) (for example, the vehicle type A registered for the first time shown in FIG. 6 described later). Vehicle lifetimes of the vehicle A1, the vehicle A2,.

  The tire replacement time determination unit 32 sequentially selects tire life random numbers based on the vehicle life time determined by the vehicle life time determination unit 31 to thereby determine the tires mounted on each of the sold vehicles in each predetermined period. Determine when to change tires.

  For example, the tire replacement time determination unit 32 sets the tire replacement time for each tire until the vehicle life time determined by the vehicle life time determination unit 31 exceeds the cumulative time of the tire replacement time corresponding to the selected vehicle life random number. Determine sequentially.

  The tire replacement number calculating unit 33 calculates the number of tire replacements to be replaced at the tire replacement time determined by the tire replacement time determining unit 32 for each tire size.

(Operation of the tire replacement number calculation device)
Next, operation | movement of the tire replacement number calculation apparatus 100 in this embodiment is demonstrated. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an operation of the tire replacement number calculating device 100 in the present embodiment.

  As shown in FIG. 2, in S <b> 1, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 determines the vehicle life time of each sold vehicle in each predetermined period by selecting the vehicle life random number shown in FIG. 4. This vehicle life time is a time based on a registration year (for example, t years) which is a predetermined period.

  Here, FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the newly registered number of sold vehicles in this embodiment for each vehicle type and each registered year. “Newly registered number” is the number of vehicles that have been sold for the first time. “Registration year” is the year when the sold vehicle was first registered.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a vehicle life curve in the present embodiment. The vehicle life random number shown in FIG. 4 is associated with the vehicle life time so that the determination probability of a specific time (for example, 4 to 14 years) in the vehicle life time is higher than the determination probability in a time other than the specific time. ing. Although the vehicle life random number is sequentially changed in increments of 0.01, it is needless to say that the present invention is not limited to this.

  Specifically, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 refers to FIG. 3 when calculating the vehicle life time of the vehicle type A corresponding to the sold vehicle of the registration year t (current year) which is a predetermined period. Then, the vehicle life random number shown in FIG. 4 is arbitrarily selected for the number corresponding to the newly registered number (67517) of the vehicle type A in the registration year t, and the vehicle life time corresponding to the selected vehicle life random number is determined.

For example, as shown in FIG. 6, when the tire replacement number calculating device 100 calculates the vehicle life time L _A1 of the first vehicle type A (hereinafter referred to as vehicle A1) in the registration year t, it is shown in FIG. Of the vehicle life random numbers, 0.66 is arbitrarily selected, and 7 years corresponding to the 0.66 is determined as the vehicle life time L _A1 . The vehicle life time L _A1 is a time based on a registration year t which is a predetermined period.

The tire replacement number calculating device 100 _determines the vehicle life times L _A2, ..., _{LA 67517} of the _second vehicle A ₂ ,..., 67517th vehicle A _{67517 in} the registration year t by the same process as described above. Furthermore, the vehicle life time of other vehicle types (vehicle type B, vehicle type C,...) In the registration year t, and each of the registration years (registration years t−1, t−2,...) Before the registration year t. The vehicle life time of the vehicle type is also determined by the same process as described above (see FIG. 7).

  In S <b> 3, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 determines the tire replacement timing of the tires installed in each of the sold vehicles in each predetermined period by using the tire life random number shown in FIG. 5.

  Here, FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a tire replacement curve (tire replacement timing probability distribution curve) in the present embodiment. The tire life random number shown in FIG. 5 is associated with the tire replacement time so that the determination probability of the specific time (here 2 to 4 years) at the tire replacement time is higher than the determination probability at a time other than the specific time. ing. The uniform random number is sequentially changed in increments of 0.01. Of course, the random number is not limited to this.

  Specifically, when the tire replacement number calculating device 100 calculates the tire replacement time of the tire mounted on the vehicle type A in the registration year t, which is a predetermined period, the vehicle type in the registration year t with reference to FIG. For each newly registered number of A (67517), one or a plurality of tire life random numbers shown in FIG. 5 are selected, and the tire replacement time corresponding to the selected tire life random numbers is determined.

For example, as illustrated in FIG. 6, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 includes tire replacement times L _a1-0 , L _a1-1, L _a1- of tires attached to the _first vehicle A1 in the registration year t. ₂ is calculated, 0.66 of the tire life random numbers shown in FIG. 5 is arbitrarily selected, and _3.6 years corresponding to the 0.66 is determined as the tire replacement time _La1-0 . The tire replacement time _La1-0 is a time based on a registration year t which is a predetermined period. Note that the lowercase alphabetic characters (a, b, c) in FIG. 6 indicate the tire size.

If the tire replacement time L _a1-0 does not exceed the vehicle life time L _A1 , the tire replacement number calculation device 100 selects the tire life random number shown in FIG. 5 and selects the same as in the above processing. The year corresponding to the random tire life random number is determined as the tire replacement time _La1-1 . The tire replacement number calculating device 100 sequentially determines tire replacement times until the cumulative timing of the determined tire replacement times L _a1-0, L _a1-1 ... _{Exceeds the} vehicle life time L _A1 .

Further, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 also _applies the tire replacement timings L _b2, ..., L _c67517 of the tires mounted on the _second vehicle A ₂ ,..., 67517th vehicle A ₆₇₅₁₇ in the registration year t. In addition, the tire replacement timing of tires mounted on other vehicle types (vehicle type B, vehicle type C,...) In the registration year t, and the registration year (registration year t) before the registration year t are determined. −1, t−2,...), The tire replacement timing of the tires mounted on each vehicle type is also determined by the same processing as described above (see FIG. 7).

  In S7, the tire replacement number calculating apparatus 100 determines that the tire replacement timing based on a certain registered year t is t + 1,..., T + m,..., T + n,. Based on the above, the number of tires to be replaced at those tire replacement times is tabulated for each registered year, each tire replacement time, each vehicle type, and each tire (see FIG. 8).

  Then, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 counts the number of tire replacements for each registered year, each tire replacement time, each vehicle type, and each tire shown in FIG. 8 for each tire replacement time and each tire size (see FIG. 9). ). As shown in FIG. 9, when the tire replacement time t is the current year, the number of tire replacements corresponding to the later tire replacement times t + 1... Is used as the predicted number.

  According to the present embodiment, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 selects the vehicle life random number to determine the vehicle life time, selects the tire life random number based on the vehicle life time, and determines the tire replacement time. decide. As a result, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 determines the irregular tire replacement time using a relationship close to the actual vehicle life time, and therefore, in actuality, the tire is not necessarily periodically replaced. The number of tire replacements can be calculated with high accuracy according to the processing content.

  Further, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 sequentially determines the tire replacement time for each sold vehicle until the cumulative tire replacement time exceeds the vehicle life time. Thereby, the tire replacement number calculating device 100 can determine an irregular tire replacement time within a range not exceeding the vehicle life time, and therefore can calculate the tire replacement number with higher accuracy.

  Next, a comparison result between the tire replacement number calculated according to the present invention and the actually measured tire replacement number will be described. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between a time-series change in the number of tire replacements for each calculated tire size and a time-series change in the number of tire replacements for each actually measured tire size. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a relationship between a time-series change in the total number of tire replacements calculated and a time-series change in the total number of tire replacements actually measured.

  As shown in FIG. 10, the time-series change of the number of tire replacements for each tire size (predicted a to predicted e) and the corresponding number of tire replacements for each actually measured tire size (measured a to measured e). Comparing with serial changes, it can be seen that both are substantially the same. Further, as shown in FIG. 11, when the time-series change in the calculated total number of tire replacements is compared with the time-series change in the actually measured total number of tire replacements, both are substantially the same. You can also see that Therefore, it can be seen that the number of tire replacements is accurately calculated according to the present invention.

(Example of change)
In addition, although the tire replacement number calculation apparatus 100 in this embodiment uses only one vehicle life curve (vehicle remaining rate curve), it is not limited to this, and the vehicle life curve set for each vehicle type is used. Also good. In this case, since the tire replacement number calculating device 100 can use the vehicle life curve set for each vehicle to bias the determination probability of the vehicle life time among the vehicle types, the vehicle life time can be determined. It can be calculated with high accuracy for each vehicle type.

  In addition, although the tire replacement number calculation apparatus 100 in this embodiment uses only one tire replacement curve, it is not limited to this, You may use the tire replacement curve set for every tire size. In this case, since the tire replacement number calculating device 100 can use the tire replacement curve set for each tire size, the tire replacement timing determination probability can be biased among the tire sizes. The timing can be calculated with high accuracy for each tire size.

  Note that the tire replacement number calculating device 100 may calculate the number of tire replacements for each tire size not only in the whole country but also in each prefecture or region.

(program)
The tire replacement number calculation program that operates in the tire replacement number calculation apparatus 100 functions as the vehicle life time determination unit 31, the tire replacement time determination unit 32, and the tire replacement number calculation unit 33. The tire replacement number calculating program may be recorded on a recording medium. Examples of the recording medium include a hard disk, a flexible disk, a compact disk, an IC chip, and a cassette tape.

  Although an example of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not particularly limited, and the specific configuration and the like of each part can be appropriately changed in design. Further, the configuration of the embodiment and the configuration of each modified example can be combined. Further, the actions and effects of the embodiment and each modified example are merely a list of the most preferable actions and effects resulting from the present invention, and the actions and effects according to the present invention are those described in the embodiment and each modified example. It is not limited to.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the tire replacement number calculation apparatus in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows operation | movement of the tire replacement number calculation apparatus in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the new registration number for every vehicle model and every registration year in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the vehicle life curve in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the tire exchange curve in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the vehicle life time in this embodiment, and a tire replacement time. It is a figure which shows the vehicle life time in this embodiment, and a tire replacement time. It is a figure which shows the tire replacement number in this embodiment for every registration year, every vehicle type, every tire, and every tire replacement time. It is a figure which shows the tire replacement number in this embodiment for every tire size and every tire replacement time. It is a figure which shows the prediction result and actual measurement result of the tire replacement number in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the prediction result and actual measurement result of the tire replacement number in this embodiment.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Input part, 20 ... Memory | storage part, 30 ... Processing part, 31 ... Vehicle life time determination part, 32 ... Tire replacement time determination part, 33 ... Tire replacement number calculation part, 40 ... Display part, 100 ... Tire replacement number calculation apparatus

Claims (8)

A vehicle life curve composed of a vehicle life time that is a vehicle life time and a predetermined number of vehicle life random numbers corresponding to the vehicle life time, and a tire replacement time that is a replacement time of a tire mounted on the vehicle; A storage unit for storing a tire replacement curve composed of a predetermined number of tire life random numbers corresponding to a tire replacement time;
A vehicle life time determination unit that determines the vehicle life time of each of the sold vehicles by selecting the vehicle life random number for each sold vehicle sold in each predetermined period;
Based on the vehicle life time determined by the vehicle life time determination unit, the tire replacement time of tires mounted on each of the sold vehicles in each predetermined period by sequentially selecting the tire life random number. A tire replacement time determination unit that determines the
A tire replacement number calculating unit that calculates, for each tire size, the number of tires to be replaced at the tire replacement time determined by the tire replacement time determining unit;
The vehicle life random number is a uniform random number, and an elapsed year from a registration year, which is a year in which a plurality of the sold vehicles are first registered, is associated with a remaining number of the plurality of sold vehicles. Associated with the elapsed year according to the actual vehicle life distribution curve,
The tire life random number is a uniform random number, and is associated with a replacement time according to an actual tire life distribution curve that is a distribution of replacement times of tires mounted on the plurality of sold vehicles .
The vehicle life curve is set for each vehicle type,
The tire replacement number calculating device , wherein the tire replacement curve is set for each tire size .   The tire replacement time determination unit determines the tire replacement time until the vehicle life time determined by the vehicle life time determination unit exceeds the cumulative time of the tire replacement time corresponding to the selected vehicle life random number. The tire replacement number calculating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the tire replacement number is sequentially determined for each tire.   The tire replacement number calculating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the actual vehicle life distribution is configured by a Weibull distribution.   The tire replacement number calculating device according to claim 1, wherein the actual tire life distribution is constituted by a normal distribution. Computer
A vehicle life curve composed of a vehicle life time that is a vehicle life time and a predetermined number of vehicle life random numbers corresponding to the vehicle life time, and a tire replacement time that is a replacement time of a tire mounted on the vehicle; A storage unit for storing a tire replacement curve composed of a predetermined number of tire life random numbers corresponding to a tire replacement time;
A vehicle life time determination unit that determines the vehicle life time of each of the sold vehicles by selecting the vehicle life random number for each sold vehicle sold in each predetermined period;
Based on the vehicle life time determined by the vehicle life time determination unit, the tire replacement time of tires mounted on each of the sold vehicles in each predetermined period by sequentially selecting the tire life random number. A tire replacement time determination unit that determines the
It functions as a tire replacement number calculation unit that calculates the number of replacements of the tire to be replaced at the tire replacement time determined by the tire replacement time determination unit for each tire size,
The vehicle life random number is a uniform random number, and an elapsed year from a registration year, which is a year in which a plurality of sold vehicles are registered for the first time, is associated with a remaining number among a plurality of sold vehicles. Associated with the elapsed years according to the actual vehicle life distribution curve,
The tire life random number is a uniform random number, and is associated with a replacement time according to an actual tire life distribution curve that is a distribution of replacement times of tires mounted on the plurality of sold vehicles .
The vehicle life curve is set for each vehicle type,
The tire replacement number calculation program , wherein the tire replacement curve is set for each tire size .   The tire replacement time determination unit determines the tire replacement time until the vehicle life time determined by the vehicle life time determination unit exceeds the cumulative time of the tire replacement time corresponding to the selected vehicle life random number. 6. The tire replacement number calculation program according to claim 5, wherein the tire replacement number calculation program is sequentially determined for each tire.   The tire replacement number calculation program according to claim 5, wherein the actual vehicle life distribution is configured by a Weibull distribution.   6. The tire replacement number calculation program according to claim 5, wherein the actual tire life distribution is constituted by a normal distribution.

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