JP2005098112A - Cogeneration system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a cogeneration system capable of sufficiently reducing consumption energy of a heat/electric power cogenerating device by relatively simple control. <P>SOLUTION: This cogeneration system has a fuel cell 6 for generating electric power and heat, an inverter 10 for systematically linking generating electric power of the fuel cell 6 to a commercial electric power supply line, a hot water storage device for recovering heat generated from a fuel cell 2 as hot water, and a control means 70 for controlling operation of the fuel cell 6. The control means 70 controls the operation of the fuel cell 2 on the basis of a predicted energy reduction quantity being a difference between a predicted consumption energy quantity when operating an electric power plant and an auxiliary heating boiler and a predicted consumption energy quantity when operating the fuel cell 2. The control means 70 also controls the operation of the fuel cell 6 on the basis of the predicted energy reduction ratio being the predicted energy reduction quantity to a predicted hot water storage heat quantity. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a cogeneration system that generates electric power and heat by a combined heat and power supply device.

  In recent years, cogeneration systems using electric power and heat have been proposed and put into practical use in order to effectively use energy and increase its efficiency. This cogeneration system is connected to a commercial power supply line by combining a heat and power supply device that generates electric power and heat (for example, a combination of an internal combustion engine such as a diesel engine and a generator), and a power supply line for commercial use. And a hot water storage device for collecting the heat generated from the combined heat and power supply device and storing it as hot water, and the combined heat and power supply device is controlled by the control means. The combined heat and power device includes a cooling water circulation passage for circulating cooling water, and the hot water storage device includes a hot water storage tank for storing hot water and a hot water circulation passage for circulating hot water in the hot water storage tank, and is provided between both passages. The heat exchanger performs heat exchange between the cooling water flowing through the cooling water circulation channel and the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation channel, and by this heat exchange, the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power supply device is stored as hot water in a hot water storage tank ( For example, see Patent Document 1).

JP 2002-213313 A

  In such a cogeneration system, when the electric power and heat (collected in the form of hot water) generated by the combined heat and power device are consumed as required, the combined heat and power device can be operated efficiently, and therefore The use efficiency of becomes higher. However, when an imbalance occurs in the generated power and heat consumption, the operation efficiency of the combined heat and power supply device is deteriorated, and the energy use efficiency is lowered.

  In the conventional combined heat and power supply apparatus, an operation schedule of the combined heat and power supply apparatus is determined based on past operation results, that is, past load data, and the combined operation of the heat and power supply apparatus is controlled based on the operation schedule. Thus, by controlling based on the past results, it is possible to predict the load state on the operating day to some extent, and to control the operation of the combined heat and power device to some extent.

  However, in the conventional cogeneration system, the operation schedule is determined in consideration of the past load data, but it is not the control for sufficiently reducing the energy consumption in the operation control of the combined heat and power unit, Further improvement of operation control is strongly desired.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a cogeneration system that can sufficiently reduce energy consumption of a combined heat and power supply device with relatively simple control.

A cogeneration system according to claim 1 of the present invention includes a cogeneration apparatus that generates electric power and heat, an inverter for systematically connecting electric power generated from the cogeneration apparatus to a commercial power supply line, and the thermoelectric system. A cogeneration system comprising a hot water storage device for recovering heat generated from the cogeneration device and storing it as hot water, and a control means for controlling the operation of the thermoelectric supply device,
The control means calculates a predicted energy reduction amount that is a difference between a predicted energy consumption amount when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated and a predicted energy consumption amount when the combined heat and power device is operated, and the predicted energy reduction The operation of the cogeneration apparatus is controlled based on the quantity.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 2 of the present invention, the control means calculates a predicted amount of stored hot water stored as hot water when the combined heat and power supply device is operated, and reduces the predicted energy with respect to the predicted amount of stored hot water. A predicted energy reduction ratio that is a quantity is calculated, and the operation of the cogeneration apparatus is controlled based on the predicted energy reduction ratio.

  Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 3 of the present invention, the heat source combined supply device is operated and controlled based on the predicted energy reduction ratio, the current load data and the past load data on the operation date.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 4 of the present invention, the cogeneration device is configured such that its output fluctuates stepwise in a plurality of stages depending on the magnitude of the load, and the control means The predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted energy reduction amount for the increased output from the output.

Moreover, the cogeneration system according to claim 5 of the present invention further includes an auxiliary heating boiler for generating hot water, and the predicted hot water storage amount is a predicted effective hot water amount of heat in consideration of a heat dissipation loss, and the control The means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio P of the specific unit operation time by the following formula:
P = [(Predicted energy consumption E1 when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated) − (
Predicted energy consumption when operating a combined heat and power system E2)] / Specific prediction enabled
Hot water storage heat amount About predicted energy consumption E1 and E2,
E1 = (specific prediction power load / power generation efficiency of power plant) + (specific prediction effective amount of stored hot water / heating)
Boiler hot water supply efficiency) + (specific prediction heating heat load / heating boiler heating efficiency)
E2 = (specific predicted energy consumption of cogeneration equipment) + (specific predicted power purchase / power plant
Power generation efficiency) + [(specific prediction heating heat load)-(heat out of the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power unit
Amount of heat used in the tuft)] / Calculating using the heating efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler.

Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 6 of the present invention, the control means sets the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp of the specific output with respect to the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit of the specific unit operation time to the following formula:
Pp = [(Cogeneration unit for operating power plant and heating boiler at specified output)
(Estimated energy savings when operating)-(Power plant and heating at minimum output)
Predicted energy when operating a combined heat and power system when operating a boiler
Energy reduction)] / [(Estimated effective hot water storage amount at specific output)-(Estimated effective hot water storage amount at minimum output)]
It is characterized by calculating using.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 7 of the present invention, the control means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio and sets an energy reduction ratio threshold based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio. To calculate the current current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means, the load data and the past load data of the operation day Current energy reduction ratio calculation means and operation control means for controlling the operation of the combined heat and power supply device, and when the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, the operation control means The cogeneration system is operated at the minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is less than the energy reduction ratio threshold value. If it is, the operation control means is characterized by operating at operating conditions of the heat source cogeneration apparatus serving as the current energy reduction ratio.

  Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 8 of the present invention, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means is configured to calculate each current output from the minimum output of the cogeneration device based on current load data and past load data on an operation day. The current current energy reduction ratio for the increased output is calculated, and if any of the calculated current energy reduction ratios is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, the operation control means outputs the combined heat and power supply device to the minimum output When at least one of the calculated current energy reduction ratios is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the operation control means has a current energy reduction ratio equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value. And the said heat-source supply apparatus is drive | operated on the driving | running condition of a maximum output state, It is characterized by the above-mentioned.

  Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 9 of the present invention, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means reduces the current energy based on the current power load data, the current heating heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data on the operation day. The ratio is calculated.

  Further, in the cogeneration system according to claim 10 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means includes predicted hot water supply thermal load pick-up means for picking up the predicted hot water supply thermal load at a predetermined operation schedule time, Predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculating means for calculating the predicted effective hot water heat amount taking into consideration the heat dissipation loss of the predicted hot water storage amount, and calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit Predictive hot water supply thermal load pick-up means for picking up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the predetermined operation schedule time in order of time, and predicting effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means. Is picked up by the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means. The predicted effective hot water storage heat amount is calculated in consideration of the heat radiation loss up to the occurrence time of the predicted hot water supply thermal load, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means The predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated.

  Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 11 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means includes a temporary operation schedule setting means for setting a temporary operation schedule of the cogeneration device, The predicted hot water supply thermal load pick-up means sequentially picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the predetermined operation schedule time in the order of passage of time, and the temporary operation schedule setting means performs the prediction in the order of the predicted predicted hot water supply heat load. The predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means sequentially sets a temporary operation schedule including the predicted hot water supply heat load picked up based on the effective hot water storage amount and the predicted energy reduction ratio and taking into account the set temporary operation schedule. All predicted salaries for the operation schedule time When picking up the thermal load, the temporary operation schedule setting means and sets the tentative operation schedule for all of the predicted hot-water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time.

  Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 12 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means calculates a predicted effective required hot water storage amount necessary to cover the predicted hot water supply thermal load at the operation schedule time. Predictive effective necessary hot water storage calorie calculating means, predictive energy reduction ratio selecting means for selecting the predictive energy reduction ratio, and predictive effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means for integrating the predictive effective hot water storage amount When the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up the first predicted hot water supply heat load during the operation schedule time, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means covers the first predicted hot water supply heat load. The required predicted effective hot water storage calorie is calculated, and the predicted effective hot water storage calorific means is the first For each unit operation time before the occurrence of the predicted hot water supply heat load of the eye, the predicted effective hot water storage amount of each power generation output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means is configured to generate the first predicted hot water supply heat load. For each unit operating time until the predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means sequentially select the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order, The predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means integrates the predicted effective hot water storage amount corresponding to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio, and the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means is equal to the predicted effective required hot water storage amount. When or exceeds this, the temporary operation schedule setting means determines the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected. The Te its output state, the minimum output for the prediction energy reduction ratio unit operating time that has not been selected, characterized in that to set as the temporary operation schedule for the 1st predicted hot-water supply heat load.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 13 of the present invention, the predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculating means picks up the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and stores the hot water storage at the start time of the operation schedule time. The amount of heat stored in the tank hot water held by the apparatus is set as a first initial value for the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and the first initial value is taken into consideration in terms of heat radiation loss due to the time before the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply thermal load. The calculated effective first initial value is calculated, and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is calculated based on the first predicted hot water supply thermal load and the effective first initial value. It is characterized by.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 14 of the present invention, when the predicted hot water supply thermal load pickup means picks up the second predicted hot water supply thermal load of the operation schedule time, the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount calculation means. Is a value obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply heat load from an integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integrated and calculated by the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating unit with respect to the first predicted hot water supply heat load, The second initial value for the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is set as a second initial value, and the second initial value is calculated as an effective second initial value in consideration of heat dissipation loss due to the time until the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. And calculating the predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the second predicted hot water supply thermal load based on the second predicted hot water supply thermal load and the effective second initial value. And wherein the Rukoto.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 15 of the present invention, when the predicted hot water supply thermal load pickup means picks up the second predicted hot water supply thermal load of the operation schedule time, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means is The predicted effective hot water storage amount for each power generation output is calculated for each unit operation time before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply thermal load, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means is configured to calculate the second predicted hot water supply. For each unit operation time before the occurrence of a thermal load, for the unit operation time for which the temporary operation schedule is not set, the increment output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit, or the unit for which the temporary operation schedule is set Regarding the operation time, the operation condition of the temporary operation schedule is set as the minimum output, and the increase from the operation condition output is performed. The predicted energy reduction ratio for the output is calculated, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means is selected. When the predicted effective hot water storage amount corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio is integrated, and the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount calculating means is equal to or exceeds the second predicted effective required hot water storage amount, The temporary operation schedule setting means outputs the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and outputs the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected. It is set as a temporary operation schedule for the second predicted hot water supply heat load.

  In the cogeneration system according to claim 16 of the present invention, when the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up the second predicted hot water supply heat load of the operation schedule time, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means is The predicted effective hot water storage amount for each power generation output is calculated for each unit operation time until the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means is configured to calculate the second predicted hot water supply. For each unit operation time before the occurrence of thermal load, for the unit operation time for which no provisional operation schedule is set, the increased output from the minimum output in the output range larger than the minimum output of the combined heat and power device, The unit operation time for which the temporary operation schedule is set is based on the operating conditions of the temporary operation schedule. The predicted energy reduction ratio for an increased output from the minimum output in a large output range is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order, and the prediction effective The hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means integrates the predicted effective hot water storage amount corresponding to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio, and the integrated effective value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means is the second predicted effective required hot water storage amount. Is equal to or exceeds this, the provisional operation schedule setting means outputs the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and the unit operation time for which the prediction energy reduction ratio is not selected. Is a temporary operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply thermal loads. And sets as Le.

  Moreover, in the cogeneration system according to claim 17 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means temporarily integrates the temporary operation predicted effective hot water generated when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation schedule. An operation prediction effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means; and a threshold value setting means for setting an energy reduction ratio threshold value, wherein the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means is the first predicted hot water supply. Until the first predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the thermal load can be covered, the temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage amount when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation schedule in the lapse of time from the start time of the operation schedule time is integrated. The integrated value of the temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means becomes equal to the first predicted effective hot water storage heat amount or Beyond, the threshold value setting means, and sets the predicted energy reduction ratio of the minimum value in the operating conditions of the temporary operation schedule to the unit operating time as energy reduction ratio threshold.

  The cogeneration system according to claim 18 of the present invention is characterized in that the combined heat and power supply device is configured such that its output fluctuates steplessly depending on the magnitude of the load.

  According to the cogeneration system according to claim 1 of the present invention, the control means for controlling the combined heat and power supply device is the predicted energy consumption when operating the power plant and the auxiliary heating boiler (in other words, the conventional system). And in a system equipped with a combined heat and power device, the combined heat and power device is not operated) and an estimated energy consumption when the combined heat and power device is operated (in other words, a state where the combined heat and power device is operated) and Because the combined heat and power unit is operated based on the predicted energy reduction amount that is the difference between the two, the operation control of the combined heat and power unit takes into account the predicted energy reduction amount.For example, when the predicted energy reduction amount is large, Operate and stop the operation of the combined heat and power unit when the amount of predicted energy reduction is small (or operate with a reduced output) Therefore, it is possible to operate efficiently save energy cogeneration apparatus. The cogeneration apparatus is a combination of an internal combustion engine and a generator, a combination of an external combustion engine and a generator, a fuel cell, or the like.

  Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 2 of the present invention, the control means is based on a predicted energy reduction ratio that is a predicted energy reduction amount with respect to a predicted hot water storage amount stored when the combined heat and power supply device is operated. Since the cogeneration device is operated, the operation control of the cogeneration device takes into account the predicted energy reduction amount and the predicted hot water storage amount.For example, when the prediction energy reduction ratio is large, the thermoelectric supply device is operated and the predicted energy reduction ratio By stopping the operation of the combined heat and power device (or operating with a reduced output) when the amount is small, the combined heat and power device can be operated more efficiently and with energy saving. In particular, since the control is based on the predicted energy reduction ratio that also takes into account the predicted hot water storage amount, when the predicted hot water storage amount is large even if the energy reduction amount is large, the energy reduction ratio is relatively small and the energy reduction amount is small. However, when the predicted amount of stored hot water is small, the energy reduction ratio becomes relatively large, and this makes it possible to operate the combined heat and power supply when the amount of energy reduction is large and the predicted amount of stored hot water is small. It can drive with good energy saving.

  Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 3 of the present invention, since the combined heat and power supply apparatus is controlled based on the predicted energy reduction ratio, the current load data on the operation date, and the past load data, the control is performed on the operation day. The present load data and the past load data are taken into consideration, and thus, the combined heat and power apparatus can be efficiently operated with energy saving in consideration of the current operation state.

  Further, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 4 of the present invention, the output of the heat transfer device is configured to vary stepwise in a plurality of stages depending on the magnitude of the load. The control means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio based on the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted energy reduction amount for the increased output from the minimum output of the cogeneration apparatus. For example, when the combined heat and power unit is operated constantly, the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio at the minimum output can be omitted, and the calculation can be simplified by calculating the energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output. And control can be made relatively simple. If the maximum output of the combined heat and power device is, for example, 1000 W, for example, the maximum output is 1000 W, the maximum output is, for example, 75% output, 750 W, the maximum output is, for example, 500 W, and the maximum output is, for example, 25 W. In such a case, when the power generation output increases from 250 W to 500 W, the power generation output increases from 250 W to 750 W, and the power generation output increases from 250 W to 1000 W. The predicted energy reduction ratio when it is increased is calculated.

  Moreover, according to the cogeneration system of Claim 5 of this invention, it provides as a system containing an auxiliary heating boiler, and a control means reduces prediction energy using the hot water supply efficiency of an auxiliary heating boiler, and the heating efficiency of an auxiliary heating boiler Since the amount is calculated, the predicted energy reduction amount can be calculated as required. Further, since the predicted effective hot water storage amount considering the heat dissipation loss is used as the predicted hot water storage load, the predicted energy reduction ratio can be accurately calculated as required. When calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio between when the combined heat and power unit is operated and when not operating, the heating boiler when calculating the predicted energy consumption E1 is the auxiliary heating boiler when calculating the predicted energy consumption E2. It will be the same.

  According to the cogeneration system according to claim 6 of the present invention, the predicted energy reduction amount and the minimum amount at the predetermined output with respect to the heat amount difference between the predicted effective hot water amount at the predetermined output and the predicted effective hot water amount at the minimum output. Calculate the predicted energy reduction ratio of the predetermined output with respect to the minimum output based on the energy reduction amount difference with the energy reduction amount at the time of output, so calculate the predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output with respect to the minimum output as required Can do.

  According to the cogeneration system of the seventh aspect of the present invention, the control means includes the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation means and the current energy reduction ratio calculation means, and the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation means is the predicted energy. An energy reduction ratio threshold is set based on the reduction ratio, and the current energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates the current energy reduction ratio based on the current load data and the past load data. When controlling the combined heat and power system, the energy reduction ratio threshold and the current energy reduction ratio are used. If the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, sufficient energy reduction by operation cannot be achieved. Assuming that the combined heat and power unit is operated at the minimum output, and that the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold, it is assumed that energy reduction by operation is achieved, and the combined heat and power unit is the current energy reduction ratio. Operated under operating conditions. Thus, by setting the energy reduction ratio threshold value and controlling the operation of the combined heat and power unit using the threshold value, the combined operation of the combined heat and power unit can be controlled with relatively simple control.

  According to the cogeneration system of claim 8 of the present invention, when the power generation output of the combined heat and power device varies stepwise in a plurality of stages, the current energy reduction ratio is calculated from the minimum output of the combined heat and power device. The current energy reduction ratio is calculated for each increased output. If all of the current energy reduction ratios are smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, it is assumed that sufficient energy saving is not achieved even if the power generation output is operated, and the combined heat and power device is operated at the minimum output. In addition, if at least one of the current energy reduction ratios is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold, the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or greater than the current energy reduction ratio threshold, and the operating condition of the maximum output state is included. By operating and controlling in this way, the amount of hot water stored can be increased while performing energy saving operation, and the occurrence of shortage of hot water during hot water supply can be reduced.

  Moreover, according to the cogeneration system according to claim 9 of the present invention, for the current load data, current power load data consumed by the power equipment and current heating heat load data consumed by the heating equipment are used, As for past load data, predicted hot water heat load data consumed by hot water heat load is used, so the current energy reduction ratio is required based on these current power load data, current heating heat load data, and predicted hot water heat load data. Can be calculated as follows.

  According to the cogeneration system described in claim 10 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means includes a predicted hot water supply thermal load pickup means, a predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means, and a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means. The predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated in the predetermined operation schedule in the order of time, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means calculates the picked up predicted hot water supply heat load before the generation time. The predicted effective hot water storage heat amount is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio of the picked-up predicted hot water supply heat load up to the time before the occurrence time. In this way, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount and the predicted energy reduction ratio are calculated for the predicted hot water supply heat load in the order of passage of time and the energy reduction ratio threshold value is set, so that the threshold value can be set relatively easily and easily. can do.

  According to the cogeneration system according to claim 11 of the present invention, the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means sequentially picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time in the order of passage of time, and the temporary operation schedule setting means includes Based on the predicted effective hot water storage amount and the predicted energy reduction ratio in the order of the predicted predicted hot water supply heat load, and considering the set temporary operation schedule, the temporary operation schedule including the predicted predicted hot water supply heat load is set. Thus, it is possible to set a provisional operation schedule that can cover the predicted hot water supply heat load generated during the operation schedule time with a relatively simple calculation. Moreover, since the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up all of the predicted hot water supply heat loads that occur throughout the operation schedule time, the temporary operation schedule set by the temporary operation schedule setting means has all the predicted hot water supply heat loads of the operation schedule time. Will be considered.

  According to the cogeneration system of claim 12 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means further includes a predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount calculation means, a predicted energy reduction ratio selection means, and a predicted effective hot water storage heat amount. When the predicted hot water supply heat load pick-up means picks up the first predicted hot water supply heat load, the temporary operation schedule considering energy saving is performed for the picked up predicted hot water supply heat load as follows. Is set. The predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculation means calculates the predicted effective required hot water storage calorie required to cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and the predicted effective hot water storage calorie calculation means calculates the first predicted hot water supply heat load before the occurrence. For each unit operation time until, the predicted effective hot water storage amount of each power generation output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means starts from the minimum output for each unit operation time until the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply heat load. The predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output is calculated, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means is the selected predicted energy. Since the predicted effective hot water storage amount corresponding to the reduction ratio is integrated, an operating condition with a large energy reduction ratio is selected. By operating the cogeneration device can be achieved sufficient energy saving. In addition, since the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected until the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means becomes equal to or exceeds the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the combined heat and power system is operated under the selected operating conditions. Thus, the first predicted hot water supply heat load can be covered. Further, the temporary operation schedule setting means sets the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and sets the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected as the temporary operation schedule. Therefore, this temporary operation schedule can achieve sufficient energy saving.

  According to the cogeneration system according to claim 13 of the present invention, the predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculating means picks up the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and the tank hot water heat storage at the start of the operation schedule time. Is the first initial value for the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and the first predicted value is based on the effective first initial value and the first predicted hot water supply thermal load in consideration of the heat dissipation loss of the first initial value. Since the predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the hot water supply heat load is calculated, the comparison between the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount calculation means and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount takes into consideration the heat dissipation loss of the first initial value. Thus, an accurate provisional operation schedule can be set.

  According to the cogeneration system of the fourteenth aspect of the present invention, when the second predicted hot water supply heat load of the operation schedule time is picked up, the predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculating means is the first predicted hot water supply. A value obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply heat load from the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integrated by the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means with respect to the heat load is calculated as a second value for the second predicted hot water supply heat load. The predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is calculated based on the effective second initial value considering the heat dissipation loss of the second initial value and the second predicted hot water supply thermal load. Therefore, the comparison between the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means for the second predicted hot water supply heat load and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount takes into consideration the heat dissipation loss of the second initial value. Will, therefore, also the second prediction hot water supply heat load, it is possible to set the correct tentative operation schedule these contrasts.

  According to the cogeneration system of claim 15 of the present invention, when the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is picked up, the predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means is before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply thermal load. For each unit operation time up to, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount for each power generation output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means performs provisional operation for each unit operation time before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply thermal load. For unit operation time for which no schedule is set, the output is increased from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit, and for unit operation time for which the temporary operation schedule is set, the operation condition of the temporary operation schedule is set as the minimum output. Since the predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the output is calculated, the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is calculated. Can be calculated predicted energy reduction ratio of the second predicted hot-water supply heat load, including temporary operation schedule. The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means integrates the predicted effective hot water heat amount corresponding to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. Therefore, an operation condition with a large energy reduction ratio is selected for the second predicted hot water supply heat load. In addition, since the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected until the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means becomes equal to or exceeds the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the combined heat and power unit should be operated under the selected operating conditions. Thus, the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads can be covered. Further, the temporary operation schedule setting means sets the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and sets the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected as the temporary operation schedule. Therefore, this temporary operation schedule takes into account both the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads, and the temporary operation schedule set in this way achieves sufficient energy saving.

  According to the cogeneration system of the sixteenth aspect of the present invention, when the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is picked up, the predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means is before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply thermal load. For each unit operation time up to, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount for each power generation output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means performs provisional operation for each unit operation time before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply thermal load. For the unit operation time for which no schedule is set, the increased output from the minimum output in the output range larger than the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit, and for the unit operation time for which the temporary operation schedule is set, the operation of the temporary operation schedule Calculate the predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output in the output range larger than the condition Therefore, even if it does in this way, the prediction energy reduction ratio with respect to the 2nd prediction hot water supply heat load including the temporary operation schedule with respect to the 1st prediction hot water supply heat load can be calculated, and the calculation is also performed from the minimum output. It is sufficient to take into account the increased output, and the calculation can be simplified to simplify the control of the system. In addition, as described above, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means becomes equal to the predicted effective required hot water storage amount. Or, since the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected until it exceeds this, energy saving can be achieved by operating the combined heat and power supply device under the selected operating conditions, and the first and second predicted hot water supply heat The load can be covered.

  According to the cogeneration system of claim 17 of the present invention, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means includes temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means and threshold value setting means, and temporary operation prediction The effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means provisionally operated in the temporary operation schedule in order of time passage from the start of the operation schedule time until the first predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the first predicted hot water supply heat load can be covered. When the temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage amount is integrated, and the integrated value of the temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage amount calculation means becomes equal to or exceeds the first predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the threshold setting means The minimum predicted energy reduction ratio in the operating conditions of the temporary operation schedule up to this unit operation time is set as the energy reduction ratio threshold value. Therefore, by controlling the operation of the combined heat and power device based on this energy reduction ratio threshold value, energy saving operation can be achieved and the amount of heat necessary to cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load can be stored. Can be stored in.

  Moreover, according to the cogeneration system of Claim 18 of this invention, it can apply also to what changes the electric power generation output of a combined heat and power supply apparatus in a stepless manner.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of a cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. FIG. 1 is a simplified system block diagram schematically illustrating a cogeneration system according to an embodiment. FIG. 2 is a block diagram schematically illustrating a part of a control system of the cogeneration system in FIG. 3 is a block diagram schematically showing control means in the control system of FIG. 2, and FIG. 4 is a simplified explanatory diagram for explaining the predicted power load, the predicted heating heat load, and the predicted hot water supply heat load. FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the predicted effective hot water storage amount for the first predicted hot water supply load, the predicted energy reduction ratio, and the like, and FIG. 6 shows the predicted effective hot water storage amount for the second predicted hot water supply heat load, FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining a predicted energy reduction ratio and the like. FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining a temporary operation hot water storage heat amount, a provisional operation energy reduction ratio, and the like when provisionally operated according to a provisional operation schedule. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a part of the operation control of the cogeneration system of FIG. 1, and FIG. 9 specifically shows the flow of setting the energy reduction ratio threshold in the flowchart of FIG. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing the flow of setting the temporary operation schedule for the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and FIG. 11 is the setting of the temporary operation schedule for the second predicted hot water heat load. It is a flowchart which shows a flow.

  In FIG. 1, the illustrated cogeneration system includes a combined heat and power supply device 2 that generates electric power and heat, and a hot water storage device 4 that collects the heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device 2 and stores it as hot water. The illustrated combined heat and power supply device 2 is composed of a fuel cell 6, and exhaust heat generated in the fuel cell 6 is stored in the hot water storage device 4 as hot water. The cogeneration apparatus 2 may be a combination of an internal combustion engine (for example, a gas engine) and a power generator driven by the internal combustion engine, or a combination of an external combustion engine and a power generator, instead of the fuel cell 6.

  An inverter 10 for grid connection is provided on the output side of the fuel cell 6, and this inverter 10 sets the output power of the fuel cell 6 to the same voltage and the same frequency as the power supplied from the commercial system 12. The commercial system 12 is, for example, a single-phase three-wire system 100 / 200V, and is electrically connected to various electric devices such as a television, a refrigerator, and a washing machine through a commercial power supply line 14. The inverter 10 is electrically connected to the power supply line 14 via the cogeneration supply line 18, and the generated power from the fuel cell 6 is supplied to the power load 16 via the inverter 10 and the cogeneration supply line 18.

  The power supply line 14 is provided with a power load measuring means 20, and this power load measuring means 20 includes power purchased from the commercial system 12, means for measuring generated power not shown, and an electric heater 52 (described later). The load power of the power load 16 is measured from each power calculated by the means for measuring the power consumption of the power load 16. The power load measuring means 20 also detects whether or not a reverse power flow occurs in the current flowing through the power supply line 14, and in this embodiment, the inverter 10 is connected from the fuel cell 6 so that the reverse power flow does not occur. Thus, the power supplied to the power supply line 14 is controlled, and surplus power of the generated power is stored in the hot water storage device 4 as recovered heat as will be described later.

  The illustrated hot water storage device 4 includes a hot water storage tank 22 that stores hot water and a hot water circulation passage 24 that circulates the hot water in the hot water storage tank 22. The bottom of the hot water storage tank 22 and the hot water circulation passage 24 are connected via a hot water outflow passage 26, and the upper portion of the hot water storage tank 22 and the hot water circulation passage 24 are connected via a hot water inflow passage 28. A first on-off valve 30 is disposed in the warm water inflow channel 28. In addition, a second opening / closing valve 32 is provided at a predetermined portion of the hot water circulation passage 24 and a hot water circulation pump 34 for circulating the hot water is provided. With this configuration, when the first on-off valve 30 is in the open state and the second on-off valve 32 is in the closed state, the hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 flows into the hot water outflow passage 26, the hot water circulation passage 24, and the hot water inflow. It is circulated through the flow path 28. When the first on-off valve 30 is closed and the second on-off valve 32 is open, the hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 flows through the hot water outflow passage 26 and is circulated through the hot water circulation passage 24.

  The hot water storage tank 22 is provided with a water supply passage 36 for supplying water (for example, tap water). One end of the water supply passage 36 is connected to the bottom of the hot water storage tank 22 and the other end is a water pipe. Such a water supply source (not shown) is connected.

  The hot water storage tank 22 is further connected with a hot water hot water flow path 40 for discharging hot water. One end of the hot water hot water flow path 40 is connected to the upper part of the hot water storage tank 22, and one or two are connected to the other end. The above-described curans (not shown) are connected, and when the curans are opened, hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is discharged through the hot water hot water flow path 40.

  In this embodiment, an auxiliary heating boiler 42 is provided in the hot water circulation passage 24. Fuel gas such as city gas or combustion oil such as heavy oil is supplied and burned in the auxiliary heating boiler 42, and the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24 is heated by this combustion heat.

  The combined heat and power supply device 2 includes a cooling water circulation passage 46 that circulates the cooling water from the fuel cell 6, and a cooling water circulation pump 48 is disposed in the cooling water circulation passage 46. Thus, the cooling water is circulated through the cooling water circulation passage 46. A heat exchanger 50 is disposed between the cooling water circulation channel 46 and the hot water circulation channel 24, and the heat exchanger 50 flows through the cooling water and the hot water circulation channel 24 flowing through the cooling water circulation channel 46. Heat is exchanged with the hot water, and the exhaust heat of the fuel cell is stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 via the cooling water flowing through the cooling water circulation passage 46 and the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24.

  In this embodiment, an electric heater 52 is provided for recovering surplus electric power generated by the fuel cell 6 with heat. The electric heater 52 is composed of a plurality of electric heaters 54, and these electric heaters 54 are disposed in the cooling water circulation passage 46, and each electric heater 54 is connected to the output side of the fuel cell 6 via the operation switch 56. ing. The plurality of operation switches 56 (which constitute the operation switch means 57) are switched in their open / closed states according to surplus power, and when the surplus power is large (or small), the power consumption of the electric heater 54 is large (or small). The operation is controlled so that The electric heater 52 may be disposed in the hot water storage tank 22 or the hot water circulation passage 24 of the hot water storage device 4 in place of the cooling water circulation passage 46.

  A heating device 58 for using warm water flowing through the hot water circulation channel 24 for heating is connected to the hot water circulation channel 24 of the hot water storage device 4 via a heat exchanger 64. The heating device 58 is, for example, a floor heating device, a bathroom heating dryer, or the like, and a heating heat exchanger 64 is provided between the heating circulation passage 62 and the hot water circulation passage 24 of the heating device 58, and heat for heating is provided. The exchanger 64 exchanges heat between the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24 and the hot water flowing through the heating circulation passage 62, and the heating device 58 is heated using the heat of the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation passage 24. The

  The above-described cogeneration system is controlled by the control means 70. 2 and 3, the control means 70 is constituted by, for example, a microcomputer, and the operation control means 72, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76, and the timer means 78. , A first memory 80 and a second memory 82 are provided. The operation control means 72 controls the inverter 10 and controls the operation switch means 57, and also controls the operation of the fuel cell 6, the cooling water circulation pump 48 and the like as will be described later. The operation control means 72 includes an operation switching signal generation means 84 and an energy reduction ratio comparison means 86 that compares the energy reduction ratio threshold value with the current energy reduction ratio. As will be described later, the operation switching signal generation means 84 generates a signal switching signal for switching the operation when the current energy reduction ratio becomes equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold, and based on this operation switching signal, the operation of the fuel cell 6 is generated. Switch operation.

  Further, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 sets an energy reduction ratio threshold value that becomes a reference when the operating state of the fuel cell 6 is switched. In this embodiment, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 includes a predicted power load calculation means 90 and a predicted heat load calculation means 92, and the predicted heat load calculation means 92 includes the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 and Predicted hot water supply heat load calculating means 96 is included. The predicted power load calculation means 90 calculates future predicted power load data using the power consumption due to the use of the past power load 16. The heat of the combined heat and power supply device 2 is related to being used for heating and hot water supply, and a heating heat load and a hot water supply heat load are predicted as heat loads, and the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 includes a heating device 58 (for example, a floor heating device). The predicted heating heat load data in the future is calculated using the past heating heat load data by the use of the bathroom heating dryer), and the predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 96 is a hot water supply heat load by the hot water supply in the past hot water use. Calculate future predicted hot water supply heat load data using the data.

  As shown in FIG. 4, the predicted power load calculation means 90, the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94, and the predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 96 have a predetermined operation schedule time (for example, from the present time (for example, 0 o'clock) to the future) 12 hours) predicted power load data, predicted heating heat load data, and predicted hot water supply heat load data are calculated, and prediction of those load data is performed for each unit operation time of the operation schedule time. In this embodiment, the operation schedule time is set to 12 hours, the unit operation time is set to 1 hour, the power load, the heating heat load and the hot water supply heat load from the present time to 12 hours ahead are predicted, and the prediction of these loads is performed. Although it is performed every hour, the operation scale time may be set to 8 hours, for example, and the unit operation time may be set to 0.5 hours, 0.25 hours, or the like. In this embodiment, as will be understood from the following description, the heating device 58 is not operated, that is, a state in which the predicted heating heat load is not generated is described. However, the heating device 58 is operated similarly. Can be applied.

  The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 also includes a predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means 104 and a predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106. The predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means 104 calculates the predicted hot water storage heat load generated when the combined heat and power supply device 2 is operated, and calculates the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount considering the heat radiation loss due to the heat radiation over time. By using the predicted effective hot water storage amount as described above, the predicted energy reduction ratio described later can be accurately calculated. However, in order to simplify this calculation, the predicted hot water storage amount (without considering the heat dissipation loss) is used. May be.

Further, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio using the following equation (1). That is, the predicted energy reduction ratio P is
P = [(Predicted energy consumption E1 when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated) − (
Predicted energy consumption when operating a combined heat and power system E2)] / Specific prediction enabled
Hot water storage amount (1)
Here, the predicted energy consumptions E1 and E2 are considered for a specific unit operation time, respectively.
E1 = (specific prediction power load / power generation efficiency of power plant) + (specific prediction effective amount of stored hot water / heating)
Boiler hot water supply efficiency) + (specific prediction heating heat load / heating boiler heating efficiency)
... (2)
E2 = (specific predicted energy consumption of cogeneration equipment) + (specific predicted power purchase / power plant
Power generation efficiency) + [(specific prediction heating heat load)-(heat out of the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power unit
Amount of heat used in the bunch)] / heating efficiency of auxiliary heating boiler (3)
Thus, considering the case where the combined heat and power supply device 2 is operated and the case where it is not operated, the case where the combined heat and power supply device 2 is not operated is when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated, and the heating boiler at this time becomes the auxiliary heating boiler 42.

In this embodiment, the fuel cell 6 is configured so that its power generation output varies stepwise depending on the size of the load, and is configured to be always operated. The predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio of the specific output with respect to the minimum output of the fuel cell 6 using the following equation (4). That is, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp in this case is
Pp = [(Cogeneration unit for operating power plant and heating boiler at specified output)
(Estimated energy savings when operating)-(Power plant and heating at minimum output)
Predicted energy when operating a combined heat and power system when operating a boiler
Energy reduction)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at specific output) − (Predicted effective hot water storage amount at minimum output)] (4)
It becomes.

Assuming that the maximum output of the fuel cell 6 is 1000 W, for example, the maximum output is 1000 W, the maximum output is, for example, 75% output, 750 W, the maximum output is, for example, 50 W output, 500 W, and the maximum output is, for example, 25% output. In such a case, when the power generation output is increased from 250 W to 500 W, the power generation output is increased from 250 W to 750 W, and the power generation output is also configured. When the predicted energy reduction ratio when the power increases from 250 W to 1000 W is calculated and the specific output is, for example, 500 W, the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp at this time is
Pp = [(Cogeneration of heat and power when operating a power plant and a heating boiler at 500 W output)
Predicted energy reduction when operating the device)-(Power generation at 250 W output)
When operating the combined heat and power system compared to when operating the heating plant and heating boiler
Predicted energy reduction amount)] / [(Predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W output)-(
Predicted effective hot water storage amount at 250 W output)] (5)
It becomes.

  The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 further has a tank hot water storage heat amount calculation means 108 for calculating the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 as hot water, and a prediction effective necessary to cover the predicted hot water supply heat load. Predictive effective required hot water storage calorific value calculation means 110 for calculating the required hot water storage heat quantity, predictive hot water supply heat load pick-up means 112 for picking up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated throughout the operation schedule time, and a predicted energy reduction ratio Predictive energy reduction ratio selection means 114, predictive effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 116 for integrating the predicted effective hot water storage amount, and integrated predicted hot water storage amount for comparing the integrated predicted effective hot water heat amount with the predicted effective hot water storage amount. Temporary operation schedule for setting the temporary operation schedule of the judging unit 118 and the combined heat and power supply device 2 And a Yuru setting means 120.

  The tank hot water storage heat amount calculation means 108 calculates the tank hot water storage heat amount based on the temperature and amount of hot water in the hot water storage tank 22. Further, the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means 112 sequentially picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time in the order of time passage, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means 110 predicts the required effective heat supply to cover the predicted hot water supply heat load. Calculate the required amount of stored hot water. For example, when the first predicted hot water supply heat load (predicted hot water supply heat load between 3 and 4 o'clock) of the predicted hot water supply heat load shown in FIG. The amount of heat stored in the tank hot water at the reference time (0 o'clock) is subtracted from the predicted hot water supply heat load. At this time, the amount of heat stored in the tank hot water decreases due to heat dissipation loss until the time when the predicted hot water supply heat load occurs, so it is desirable to use the effective amount of heat stored in the tank considering the heat dissipation loss as the amount of heat stored in the tank hot water. .

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio in descending order of the calculated value of the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means 116 predicts the effective effective hot water storage amount according to the operating condition of the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. When the integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water amount, the integrated predicted hot water amount determining unit 118 compares the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water amount calculating unit 116 with the predicted effective required hot water amount. Repeats the selection of the predicted energy reduction ratio by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114, and when this integrated value becomes equal to or exceeds the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the selection by the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 is terminated. In this embodiment, in connection with the combined operation of the combined heat and power device 2 (fuel cell 6), the specific output (for example, 1000 W, 750 W, and 500 W) with respect to the minimum output of the combined heat and power device 2 as the predicted energy reduction ratio. Therefore, the estimated effective hot water storage heat amount at the minimum output of the combined heat and power supply device 2 is added to the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means 116, and the integrated predicted hot water storage heat amount determining means 118 adds this value. The calculated value is compared with the predicted effective required hot water storage amount. And the temporary operation schedule setting means 120 is based on the operation state of the prediction energy reduction ratio selected about the thing including all the prediction hot water supply thermal loads of operation schedule time, about the unit operation time with which the prediction energy reduction ratio was selected. The operation state that is the predicted energy reduction ratio is set as the temporary operation schedule, and the unit output time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected is set as the temporary operation schedule.

  In this embodiment, the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 further sets the energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the temporary operation schedule, and further sets a temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means. 122, provisional operation predicted hot water storage heat amount determination means 124 and threshold value setting means 126 are included. Temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means 122 sequentially integrates the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage heat amount generated when operating according to the temporary operation schedule in the order of passage of time. The integrated value obtained by the operation predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 122 is compared with the predicted effective required hot water storage amount of the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and when this integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, provisional operation is performed. Accumulation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount is repeatedly performed, and when this integrated value is equal to or exceeds the predicted hot water supply heat load, this integration is terminated. Then, the threshold value setting means 126 sets the smallest value among the predicted energy reduction ratios in the range integrated by the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means 122, for example, the energy reduction ratio threshold value for the unit operation time at 0:00. This energy reduction ratio threshold value is used for controlling the operation of the cogeneration apparatus 2 (fuel cell 6), for example, at 0 to 1 o'clock.

  Further, the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76 of the control means 70 is the same as the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation setting means 106, based on the current energy reduction ratio, which is the minimum output of the cogeneration apparatus 2 (fuel cell 6) in this embodiment. The current energy reduction ratio for the increased output of is calculated. In this embodiment, the power generation output of the cogeneration apparatus 2 is configured to be variable in four stages of 1000 W, 750 W, 500 W, and 250 W, and in this connection, as an increased output from the minimum output, 250 W to 500 W. , The current energy reduction ratio is calculated when the power changes from 250 W to 500 W, or from 250 W to 1000 W.

This current energy reduction ratio is calculated using current power load data and current heating thermal load data as current load data, and predicted hot water supply thermal load data obtained by calculating past load data as past load data. Based on the load data, the current heating heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data, the above formulas (1) to (5) are applied. The application of the above formula when calculating the current energy reduction ratio is as follows. For the application of equations (1) to (3), the current energy reduction ratio PA is
PA = [(Current energy consumption EA1 when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated) −
(Current energy consumption EA2 when the combined heat and power unit is operated)] / Specific present
Effective amount of stored hot water (1A)
The current energy consumption EA1, EA2 is
EA1 = (specific current power load / power generation efficiency of the power plant) + (specific current hot water calorific value / heating boiler)
Hot water supply efficiency) + (specific heating heating load / heating boiler heating efficiency) (2A)
EA2 = (specific current energy consumption of cogeneration equipment) + (specific power purchase / power plant
(Electric efficiency) + [(specific heating heating load)-(out of the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power unit for heating
Amount of heat used)] / heating efficiency of auxiliary heating boiler (3A)
The current energy reduction ratio PpA of the specific output with respect to the minimum output is
PpA = [(Combined heat and power supply when operating a power plant and a heating boiler at a specific output
(Current energy savings when operating the plant)-(minimum power plant and additional energy
Current energy when operating a combined heat and power system compared to when operating a heat boiler
Energy saving amount)] / [(Current effective hot water storage amount at specific output)-(At minimum output)
Current effective hot water storage amount)] ... (4A)
For example, if the specific output is 500 W, the current energy reduction ratio PpA is
PpA = [(combination of heat and power when operating a power plant and a heating boiler at 500 W output)
Current energy savings when operating the feeder)-(250W output)
When operating a combined heat and power system for operating a power plant and a heating boiler
Current energy reduction amount of mushroom)] / [(Current effective hot water storage amount at 500 W output) − (Current effective hot water storage amount at 250 W output)] (5A)
Thus, considering the case where the combined heat and power supply device 2 is operated and the case where it is not operated, the case where the combined heat and power supply device 2 is not operated is when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated, and the heating boiler at this time becomes the auxiliary heating boiler 42.

  When calculating the current energy reduction ratio, the current power load data and heating heat load data change every moment. For example, the power load data and heating heat load data from 5 to 20 minutes before the current time are averaged. It is preferable to use the current power load data and the current heating heat load data.

  In this embodiment, the first memory 80 of the control means 70 includes predicted power load data, predicted heat load data (predicted heating heat load data, predicted hot water supply heat load data), tank hot water storage amount, predicted energy reduction amount, and prediction effective. Stores hot water storage, predicted energy reduction ratio, predicted effective required hot water storage, estimated effective hot water storage integrated value, temporary operation predicted effective hot water storage integrated value, energy reduction ratio threshold, current power load data, current heating heat load data, etc. Is done. In addition, the second memory 82 calculates an operation schedule time (12 hours), a unit operation time (1 hour), a time for averaging current power load data and heating heat load data, and an energy reduction ratio. Various application formulas are stored. The timer means 78 keeps time, and the time measured is used for controlling the cogeneration system.

  Next, control of the above-described cogeneration system will be described with reference to FIGS. 1, 3, and 4 to 11. When operating the cogeneration system, first, the energy reduction ratio threshold value is set by the energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 74 (step S1) (see FIG. 8). The energy reduction ratio threshold value is set according to the flowchart shown in FIG. That is, the predicted power load calculation means 90 is based on the past load data of the power load 16, and the predicted power load for each unit operation time (for example, one hour) of the operation schedule time (for example, the previous 12 hours from the current time). The data is calculated (step S1-1), and the predicted heating heat load calculating means 94 is a unit operation of the operation schedule time based on the heating heat load data of the past heating device (floor heating device, bathroom heating dryer, etc.). Predicted heating heat load data for each hour is calculated (step S1-2) (in this embodiment, the heating device is not operated and the predicted heating heat load is zero), and the predicted hot water supply heat The load calculating means 96 calculates predicted hot water supply thermal load data for each unit operation time of the operation schedule time based on past hot water supply data (step S1-3). The predicted power load data by the predicted power load calculation means 90, the predicted heating heat load data by the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data by the predicted hot water supply heat load calculation means 96, for example, are as shown in FIG. . The calculation of the predicted heating heat load data by the predicted heating heat load calculation means 94 is to predict the operating state of various heating devices and calculate the predicted heating heat load data using the operating state of the heating device. Good.

  When the predicted power load data, the predicted heating heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply load data in each unit operation time of the operation schedule time are calculated in this way, a predetermined predicted hot water supply heat load is picked up (step S1-4). The predicted hot water supply heat load pick-up means 112 picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the operation schedule time in the order of passage of time. First, the first (3-4 o'clock) hot water supply heat load is picked up, and this predicted prediction A temporary operation schedule is set for the hot water supply heat load (step S1-5).

  Setting of the temporary operation schedule for the first predicted hot water supply heat load is performed as shown in FIG. When setting the temporary operation schedule, first, the tank hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 is calculated (step S1-5-1). The tank hot water calorie calculating means 108 calculates a tank hot water heat amount based on the amount and temperature of hot water in the hot water tank 22 (for example, in order to measure the amount and temperature of hot water, the hot water tank 22 is spaced in the depth direction). A plurality of temperature sensors are provided), and the tank hot water storage amount is as shown in the tank hot water storage amount column of FIG.

  Next, in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated, the calculation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount is performed for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 3 o'clock). (Step S1-5-2). In this embodiment, the combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6) is configured to be operable with four-stage power generation outputs of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W. Therefore, the predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculation means 104 is provided for each unit. Calculate the predicted amount of stored hot water for each power generation output during the operation time, and calculate the predicted effective amount of stored hot water taking into account the heat dissipation loss of the time from the unit operating time to the time before the predicted hot water supply heat load is generated. Calculate. The predicted amount of stored hot water can be calculated based on the predicted power load, predicted hot water supply heat load and predicted heating heat load for each unit operation time, and the power generation output of the combined heat and power supply device 2 for that unit operation time. In addition, heat loss occurs in the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 22 as time elapses, and this heat dissipation loss increases as the time until the predicted hot water supply heat load is increased. The energy reduction ratio threshold value to be set can be set more accurately. The predicted effective hot water storage calorie calculated in this way is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted effective hot water storage calorie in FIG.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 3 o'clock) in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. In step S1-5-3, a predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the calculated predicted energy reduction amount (step S1-5-4). In this embodiment, as described above, the combined heat and power supply device 2 is configured to be operable with the four-stage power generation output of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W. Therefore, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means 106 is configured to operate each unit. The predicted energy reduction amount for each power generation output is calculated during the operation time, and the calculated predicted energy reduction amount is, for example, as shown in the column of energy reduction amount in FIG. The energy reduction amount Q is, as understood from the above description, Q = (predicted energy consumption E1 when operating the power plant and auxiliary heating boiler) − (predicted when operating the combined heat and power supply device) It becomes energy consumption amount E2) and is calculated for each power generation output. After calculating the energy reduction amount in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 further uses the above equation (4) to specify a specific output for the minimum output (for example, 250 W) of the combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6). The predicted energy reduction ratio (for example, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W) is calculated, and the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio is, for example, as shown in the column of the predicted energy reduction ratio in FIG.

  After the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio is picked up in order to set the energy saving operation schedule (step S1-5-5). That is, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the calculation value with the largest predicted energy reduction ratio as the first, “1.40” in this embodiment, and stores it according to the operating condition of the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. The predicted effective hot water storage heat amount is integrated (step S1-5-6). In this embodiment, when integrating the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount calculation means 110 calculates the predicted effective required hot water storage amount necessary to cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load. The predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculation means 110 sets the tank hot water storage heat amount (for example, 1000 cal) at the start of the operation schedule time as the first initial value for the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and based on this first initial value, An effective first initial value (for example, 964 kcal) taking into consideration a heat dissipation loss (for example, 36 kcal) before the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is calculated, and an effective first value is calculated from the first predicted hot water supply thermal load. Subtract 1 initial value to calculate the predicted effective required hot water storage amount. Then, the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is compared with the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount (step S1-5-7), and the combined heat and power supply device 2 is always operated during this comparison. In relation to the above, since the predicted effective hot water storage amount at least with the minimum output is generated, the integrated predicted hot water storage amount integrating means 116 has the minimum output in the time zone until the first predicted hot water supply heat load is generated ( 250 W), for example, 105 kcal as the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 0 to 1 o'clock, 107 kcal as the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 1 o'clock to 2 o'clock, and 108 kcal as the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 2 to 3 o Predicted effective hot water storage amount that increases in accordance with the predicted energy reduction ratio selected for this integrated value (ie, predictive output at 500 W output) The amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at a minimum output of 250 W from the stored hot water amount, for example, 241 kcal, is integrated, and a comparison determination between this integrated value and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount (specifically, the first value effective for this integrated value) A comparison determination between the value obtained by adding the initial values and the first predicted hot water supply heat amount load) is performed.

  The integrated predicted hot water storage amount determination means 118 can cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load, in other words, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means 116 is equal to or equal to the predicted effective required hot water storage amount. If this integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the process returns to step S1-5-5, and steps S1-5-5 to S1-5-7 are repeated. When this integrated value is equal to or larger than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the process proceeds to step S1-5-8.

  In this embodiment, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.40” (power generation output 500 W in a unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock) is first selected, and this selection increases the predicted effective hot water storage amount that increases from the predicted effective hot water storage amount at the minimum output. In other words, 241 kcal obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W is integrated, and the integrated value 1525 kcal (effective first initial value + effective hot water at the minimum output at 0-3 hours) The amount of heat + the amount of increase in the effective hot water storage amount) and the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal) are compared. In this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is smaller than the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore, the process returns from step S1-5-7 to step S1-5-5. The second largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected.

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the second largest calculated value of the predicted energy reduction ratio as the second, “1.39” in this embodiment, and the operating conditions ( Accumulation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount (the amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W) stored by the power generation output 500 W in the unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock (step S1) -5-6), this integrated value (1525 + 238) kcal and the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal) are compared. Also in this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is smaller than the first predicted hot water supply heat load. The third largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected.

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the third largest calculation value of the predicted energy reduction ratio as the third, “1.31” in this embodiment, and the operating condition ( The predicted effective hot water storage amount stored by the power generation output 750 W in the unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock (500 W is selected for the unit operation time of 2 to 3 o'clock. The amount of heat obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W is further added (step S1-5-6), and this integrated value (1525 + 238 + 314) kcal is compared with the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal). The In this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 becomes larger than the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore, the process proceeds from step S1-5-7 to step S1-5-8. A temporary operation schedule for the predicted hot water supply heat load is set.

  The temporary operation schedule setting unit 120 outputs the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected. In this embodiment, the unit operation time of 0-1 o'clock is 250 W, the unit operation time of 1-2 o'clock is 500 W, and the unit operation time is 2-3 o'clock. Is set as a provisional driving schedule.

  Returning to FIG. 9, when the provisional operation schedule for the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is set in this way, the process proceeds to step S <b> 1-6, and whether there is another predicted hot water supply thermal load at the predetermined operation schedule time. If it is determined that there is another predicted hot water supply thermal load, the process returns to step S1-4. If there is no other predicted hot water supply thermal load, the process proceeds to step S1-7.

  In this embodiment, in addition to the first predicted hot water supply thermal load (in the time zone from 3 to 4 o'clock), there is an estimated hot water supply thermal load in the time zone from 8 to 9 o'clock. Returning to S-4, the next predicted hot water supply heat load in the operation schedule time is picked up. That is, the predicted hot water supply thermal load pickup means 112 picks up the second predicted hot water supply heat load (in the time zone from 8 to 9 o'clock) in the order of the operation schedule time, and the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads. A temporary operation schedule is set for the predicted hot water supply heat load including (step S1-5).

  The setting of the temporary operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads is performed as shown in FIG. In FIG. 11, first, the initial tank hot water storage heat amount for the second predicted hot water storage load is calculated (step S1-5-11). In this case, the first predicted hot water supply heat load is 2000 kcal, for example. Since the heat amount of 2077 kcal is stored in the hot water storage tank 22 as the predicted effective hot water storage amount with respect to the second predicted hot water supply heat load, the initial tank hot water storage amount in this case, that is, the second initial value, is an integration of the predicted effective hot water storage amount. The value is obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply heat load from the value, and in this embodiment, for example, 77 kcal.

  Next, in the time zone from the start of the operation schedule time to before the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated, the predicted effective hot water storage amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 8 o'clock). (Step S1-5-12). The combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6) is configured to be operable with four-stage power generation outputs of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W. Even in this case, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means 104 is as described above. Similarly, the predicted amount of stored hot water for each power generation output is calculated at each unit operation time, and the calculated amount of predicted stored hot water takes into account the heat dissipation loss during the period from the unit operation time to the time before the predicted hot water supply heat load is generated. The predicted effective hot water storage calorie is calculated, and the predicted effective hot water storage calorie calculated in this way is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted effective hot water storage heat in FIG.

  Next, the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 8 o'clock) in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. (Step S1-5-13), a predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the calculated predicted energy reduction amount (Steps S1-5-14 and Steps S1-5-15). In this embodiment, as described above, the combined heat and power supply device 2 is configured to be operable with the four-stage power generation output of 250 W, 500 W, 750 W, and 1000 W. Therefore, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 is operated in each unit operation. The predicted energy reduction amount for each power generation output in time is calculated, and the calculated predicted energy reduction amount is, for example, as shown in the column of energy reduction amount in FIG. Then, after calculating the energy reduction amount in this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 further calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio using the above equation (4). At this time, a large output is not set as the power generation output of the combined heat and power unit 2 (in other words, the minimum output of 250 W is set or the power generation output is not set), unit operation time (0 to 1 o'clock, As for each unit operation time at 3 to 8 o'clock, the predicted energy reduction when the combined output of the cogeneration device 2 (fuel cell 6) is increased from a minimum output (for example, 250 W) to a specific output (for example, 500 W, 750 W, 1000 W) About unit operation time (each unit operation time from 1 to 3) in which the ratio is calculated (step S1-5-14) and the output (for example, 500 W or 750 W) larger than the minimum output is set as the power generation output Is a predicted energy reduction ratio when the combined output from the set output of the combined heat and power unit 2 is increased to a specific output (step S1-5-15), Predicted energy reduction ratios are, for example, it is as shown in the column of the predicted energy reduction ratio of FIG. If the maximum output of 1000 W is set as the set power generation output, operation exceeding this output cannot be performed, so the set operating condition is maintained, and the predicted energy reduction ratio is not calculated.

  When the predicted energy reduction ratio is thus calculated, the pickup is performed (step S1-5-16). That is, also in this case, the predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 selects the first calculated value with the largest predicted energy reduction ratio, in this embodiment “1.41” (500 W operation at 7-8 o'clock). Then, the predicted effective hot water storage amount stored according to the selected operating condition of the predicted energy reduction ratio is integrated (step S1-5-17). In this embodiment, when integrating the predicted effective hot water storage amount, the predicted effective necessary hot water storage amount calculation means 110 calculates the predicted effective required hot water storage amount necessary to cover the second predicted hot water supply heat load. That is, the predicted effective required hot water storage calorific value calculation means 110 corresponds to the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and the tank hot water storage heat amount remaining when the hot water in the hot water storage tank 22 is used (that is, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means 116). Is a calculated value obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply thermal load from the integrated value, and in this embodiment, 77 kcal) is set as the second initial value for the second predicted hot water supply thermal load, Based on the effective second initial value (for example, 43 kcal) in consideration of the heat dissipation loss (for example, 34 kcal) before the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated based on the second predicted hot water supply thermal load The predicted effective required hot water storage amount is calculated by subtracting the effective second initial value from (for example, 3000 kcal). Then, a comparison is made between the integrated value by the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 116 and the predicted effective required hot water storage amount (step S1-5-18), and at the time of this comparison, the first predicted hot water supply thermal load (ie, , The temporary operation schedule described above is set for the 0-3 o'clock time zone), and the combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6) is operated at least at the minimum output for the remaining time zone. Therefore, the integrated prediction hot water storage amount integration means 116 predicts the minimum output (250 W) in each unit operation time in the time zone (time zone from 3 to 8 o'clock) before the occurrence of the second predicted hot water supply thermal load. Effective hot water storage amount, that is, for example, 103 kcal as predicted effective hot water storage amount at 3-4 o'clock, for example, 104 kcal as predicted effective hot hot water heat amount at 4-5 o'clock, 105 kca, as predicted effective hot water storage amount at 5-6 o'clock For example, 107 kcal as the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 6-7 o'clock, and 108 kcal, for example, as the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 7-8 o'clock, for example, are accumulated in advance, and the prediction increases corresponding to the predicted energy reduction ratio selected for this integrated value. Effective heat storage heat amount (ie, heat amount obtained by subtracting predicted effective hot water heat amount at minimum output of 250 W from predicted effective hot water heat amount at output of 500 W, for example, 241 kcal) is integrated, and determination of comparison between this integrated value and predicted effective required hot water heat amount ( Specifically, a comparison between a value obtained by adding the effective second initial value to the integrated value and the second predicted hot water supply thermal load) is performed.

  The integrated predicted hot water storage amount determination means 118 can cover the second predicted hot water supply heat load, in other words, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculation means 116 is equal to or equal to the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount. If the integrated value is smaller than the predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the process returns to step S1-5-5, and the selection of the predicted energy reduction ratio is repeatedly performed as described above. Advances to step S1-5-8 when becomes greater than or equal to the predicted effective required hot water storage amount.

  In this embodiment, the predicted energy reduction ratio “1.41” (the power generation output 500 W in the unit operation time of 7 to 8 o'clock) is first selected, and this selection increases the predicted effective hot water heat amount that increases from the predicted effective hot water heat amount at the minimum output. (That is, 241 kcal obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water storage amount at 500 W) is added, and the integrated value 811 kcal (effective second initial value + effective at the minimum output of 3 to 8 hours) The amount of stored hot water + the amount of increase in effective hot water storage) is compared with the second predicted hot water supply heat load (3000 kcal). In this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 116 is smaller than the second predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore the process returns from step S1-5-18 to step S1-5-16. The second largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected.

  The predicted energy reduction ratio selection means 114 is the second largest calculated value with the predicted energy reduction ratio being the second, in this embodiment “1.40” (500 W operation in a unit operation time of 5-6 o'clock). Then, the accumulated predicted effective hot water quantity stored according to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio operating condition (heat quantity obtained by subtracting the predicted effective hot water quantity at 250 W from the predicted effective hot water quantity at 500 W) is further accumulated (step S1-5-17), this integrated value (811 + 235) kcal and the second predicted hot water supply heat load (3000 kcal) are compared. Also in this comparison determination, the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means 116 is smaller than the second predicted hot water supply heat load, and therefore the process returns from step S1-5-18 to step S1-5-16 again, and then The third largest predicted energy reduction ratio is selected. In this way, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting unit 114 sets “1” as the third largest calculated value until the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating unit 116 is equal to or larger than the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount. .39 ”(500 W operation at a unit operation time of 3 to 4 o'clock), and“ 1.38 ”(500 W operation at a unit operation time of 4 to 5 o'clock) as the fourth largest calculated value, “1.37” (500 W operation at a unit operation time of 6 to 7 o'clock) as a large calculation value, and “1.22” (750 W operation at a unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock) as a seventh operation value , “1.18” (1000 W operation in unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock) as the eighth largest calculated value, and “0.95” (unit of 7 to 8 o'clock) as the ninth largest calculated value luck 750W operation in time), and selects "0.86" the (750W operation in the unit operating time o'clock 3-4) as a large calculated value to the 10 th.

  When the predicted energy reduction ratios are selected in descending order and the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount calculating means 116 is equal to or larger than the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the process proceeds to step S1-5-19. The operation schedule setting means 120 outputs the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, and the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the prediction energy reduction ratio is not selected, or the operation of the set temporary operation schedule. The state is set as a provisional operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply heat loads, and in this embodiment, as shown in FIG. About 1000W operation for unit operation time of hour, and 750W operation for unit operation time of 2-3 hours, About to 4 unit operation time of o'clock and so on 500W operation of, these operating state is set as a temporary driving schedule.

  Returning to FIG. 9 again, when the provisional operation schedule is set for the first and second predicted hot water supply thermal loads in this way, there is no other predicted hot water supply thermal load in the predetermined operation schedule time. Accordingly, the process proceeds from step S1-6 to step S1-7. In step S1-7, the provisional operation predicted effective hot water storage amount when provisional operation is performed according to the provisional operation schedule is performed, and the tank storage heat amount and the heat radiation loss at the start of the operation schedule time are considered. The initial value is used, and the predicted effective hot water storage amount in consideration of the heat radiation loss before the first predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated is used. Referring to FIG. 7, provisional operation predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means 122 adds the predicted effective hot water storage amount (105 kcal) generated by the 250 W operation of the unit operation time of 0 to 1 to the first initial value (964 kcal). Then, the temporary operation predicted hot water storage heat amount determination means 124 determines whether this integrated value can cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load (2000 kcal). And when it cannot be covered, it returns to step S1-7, and temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration | calculation calculating means 122 is the prediction hot water supply heat | fever which generate | occur | produces by 1000W operation | movement of the next unit operation time (unit operation time of 1 to 2 o'clock). The load (976 kcal) is integrated, and at this time, the integrated value becomes 2045 kcal, and the first predicted hot water supply thermal load can be covered. If it can be covered in this way, it will progress to step S1-9 and the threshold value setting means 126 will be the minimum estimated energy reduction ratio "1. in the range of the time slot | zone which can cover the 1st estimated hot water supply load. 18 ”is set as the energy reduction ratio threshold, and for example, for the first unit operation time (0 to 1 o'clock) of the operation schedule period, the combined heat and power supply device 2 (fuel cell 6) is used by using this energy reduction ratio threshold. ) Is controlled.

  When setting this energy reduction ratio threshold value, the setting of the temporary operation schedule for the second and subsequent predicted hot water supply thermal loads is not a method according to the flowchart shown in FIG. 10 (and the table shown in FIG. 6). The method shown in the flowchart of FIG. 13 (and the table shown in FIG. 12) may be used. By using this method, the processing can be performed relatively easily and simply. 12 and 13, the initial tank hot water storage amount for the second predicted hot water storage load is calculated (step S1-5-111), and the second predicted hot water supply heat load is generated from the start of the operation schedule time. In the previous time zone, calculation of the predicted effective hot water storage amount is performed for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 8 o'clock) (step S1-5-112), and the calculated predicted effective hot water storage amount is, for example, It becomes as shown in the column of the prediction effective hot water storage amount of FIG. Next, in the time period from the start of the operation schedule time to before the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated, the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for each unit operation time (each time from 0 to 8 o'clock). (Step S1-5-113) The calculated predicted energy reduction amount is, for example, as shown in the column of predicted energy reduction amount in FIG. The contents from step S1-5-111 to step S1-5-113 are substantially the same as the contents from step S1-5-11 to step S1-5-13 in FIG.

  Thereafter, a predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on the calculated predicted energy reduction amount (steps S1-5-114 and S1-5-115). The predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means 106 calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio using the above equation (4). At this time, a large output is not set as the power generation output of the combined heat and power unit 2 (in other words, the minimum output of 250 W is set or the power generation output is not set), unit operation time (0 to 1 o'clock, For each unit operation time at 3 to 8 o'clock, when the output increases in the output range larger than the minimum output, that is, when the output increases from the minimum output (eg, 250 W) to the specific output (eg, 500 W, 750 W, 1000 W) Is calculated (step S1-5-114). Moreover, the unit operation time (each unit operation time at 1 to 3 o'clock) in which an output (for example, 500 W or 750 W) larger than the minimum output is set as the power generation output is larger than the output of the set operation condition. The predicted energy reduction ratio when the output is increased from the minimum output to the specific output in the output range is calculated (step S1-5-15). For example, when the temporary operation schedule shown in FIG. (2 o'clock) is set to 500 W output, so the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated when it rises from 250 W to 7500 W and 1000 W, and for unit operating time (2 to 3 o'clock), 750 W output is set. Therefore, the energy reduction ratio is calculated when the power rises from 250 W to 1000 W. The predicted energy reduction ratio calculated in this way is, for example, as shown in the column of the predicted energy reduction ratio in FIG. Even in this case, if the maximum output of 1000 W is set as the set power generation output, operation exceeding this output cannot be performed, so the set operating condition is maintained and the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated. There is nothing.

  When the calculation of the predicted energy reduction ratio is thus performed, the process proceeds to step S1-5-116, and the pickup of the predicted energy reduction ratio is performed in the same manner as described above, and then from step S1-5-117 to step S1- 5-119 is executed to set the temporary operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply thermal loads, and the contents of steps S1-5-116 to S1-5-119 are the same as those in FIG. The contents are substantially the same as the contents of steps S1-5-16 to S1-5-19.

  Returning to FIG. 8, when the energy reduction ratio threshold value is set in this way, the current energy reduction ratio is calculated (step S2). The calculation of the current energy reduction ratio is performed by the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76, and applying the formula (4A) as described above, based on the current power load data, the current heating heat load data, and the predicted hot water supply heat load data, Calculation of the current energy reduction ratio (in this embodiment, the current energy reduction ratio when changing from 250 W to 500 W, from 250 W to 750 W, and from 250 W to 1000 W) for the increased output from the minimum output of the cogeneration device 2 Done. Then, it is determined whether or not these current energy reduction ratios are equal to or greater than the set energy reduction ratio threshold (step S3).

  The energy reduction ratio comparison means 86 of the operation control means 72 compares the current energy reduction ratio with the set energy reduction ratio threshold, and if any of the current energy reduction ratios is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, Proceeding from step S3 to step S4, it is assumed that the energy saving operation is not achieved even if the cogeneration apparatus 2 is operated at an output larger than the minimum output, and the operation switching signal generation means 84 generates a minimum output operation switching signal, and the operation control means 72 Operates the cogeneration apparatus 2 (fuel cell 6) at a minimum output of, for example, 250 W.

  On the other hand, when the current energy reduction ratio calculated by the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76 is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S3 to step S5, and whether or not there are a plurality of output states equal to or greater than the threshold value. Is determined, and when there is one output state equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S5 to step S6, and the combined heat and power supply device 2 is operated in the operation state of the current energy reduction ratio. For example, if the current energy reduction ratio when it is changed from 250 W to 500 W (or 750 W, 1000 W) is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the operation switching signal generation means 84 may output the intermediate first output operation switching signal (or intermediate output). 2 output operation switching signal, maximum output operation switching signal) is generated, and based on this operation switching signal, the operation control means 72 causes the combined heat and power supply device 2 to be 500 W which is an intermediate first output (or 750 W which is an intermediate second output). And the maximum output is 1000 W).

  Further, when there are a plurality of output states equal to or higher than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process proceeds from step S5 to step S7, where the current energy reduction ratio is equal to or higher than the energy reduction ratio threshold value and the maximum The cogeneration apparatus 2 is operated in the output state. For example, when the current energy reduction ratio when changing from 250 W to 500 W or when changing from 250 W to 750 W is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the operation switching signal generating means 84 will switch the operation switching operation of the maximum output state. A signal, that is, an intermediate second output operation switching signal is generated, and based on the operation switching signal, the operation control means 72 operates the cogeneration device 2 at 750 W which is an intermediate second output. Thus, by selecting the maximum output state that is equal to or greater than the energy reduction ratio threshold, it is possible to increase the amount of hot water generated while achieving energy saving, and to reduce the shortage of hot water during hot water supply.

  Until it is time to reset the energy reduction ratio threshold, the process returns from step S8 to step S2, and the current energy reduction ratio calculation means 76 calculates the current energy reduction ratio (step S2). Step S8 is repeatedly performed. Then, when it is time to reset the energy reduction ratio threshold value, the process returns from step S8 to step S1, and the above-described steps S1 to S8 are repeatedly performed.

  As mentioned above, although embodiment of the cogeneration system according to this invention was described, this invention is not limited to these embodiment, A various deformation | transformation thru | or correction | amendment are possible without deviating from the scope of this invention.

  For example, in the above-described embodiment, the power generation output of the combined heat and power supply device 2 has been described as being applied to a configuration in which the power generation output varies in four stages. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the power generation output is in two stages or three stages. In addition, the present invention can be similarly applied to a case that fluctuates in five steps or more. Further, the present invention is not limited to such a step-like variation, and the present invention can be similarly applied to a step-variable variation according to a load variation.

  It can be used for a cogeneration system equipped with a combined heat and power generation device that generates electricity and heat. By using the predicted energy reduction amount that is the difference, it is possible to efficiently control the combined heat and power supply apparatus with energy saving, which is useful for the energy saving operation of the cogeneration system.

1 is a simplified system diagram schematically showing the best mode of a cogeneration system according to the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows a part of control system of the cogeneration system of FIG. 1 simply. It is a block diagram which shows simply the control means in the control system of FIG. It is a simple explanatory view for explaining prediction electric power load, prediction heating heat load, and prediction hot water supply heat load. It is a figure for demonstrating the predicted effective hot water storage amount, predicted energy reduction ratio, etc. about the 1st predicted hot water supply load. It is a figure for demonstrating the prediction effective hot water storage amount about the 2nd prediction hot water supply heat load, a prediction energy reduction ratio, etc. FIG. It is a figure for demonstrating temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount, temporary operation energy reduction ratio, etc. when it is made to perform temporary operation along a temporary operation schedule. It is a flowchart which shows a part of operation control of the cogeneration system of FIG. It is a flowchart which shows concretely the flow of the setting of the energy reduction ratio threshold value in the flowchart of FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the setting of the temporary driving schedule with respect to the 1st prediction hot water supply heat load. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the setting of the temporary driving schedule with respect to the 2nd prediction hot water supply heat load. It is a figure for demonstrating the predicted effective hot water storage amount, the predicted energy reduction ratio, etc. about the 2nd predicted hot water supply heat load by the system of a deformation | transformation form. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the setting of the temporary driving schedule with respect to the 1st and 2nd prediction hot water supply thermal load by the system of a modification.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 2 Cogeneration apparatus 4 Hot water storage apparatus 6 Fuel cell 10 Inverter 16 Electric load 22 Hot water storage tank 24 Hot water circulation flow path 42 Auxiliary heating boiler 46 Cooling water circulation flow path 50 Heat exchanger 52 Electric heater 58 Heating apparatus 70 Control means 72 Operation control means 74 Energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means 76 Current energy reduction ratio calculation means
90 predicted power load calculating means 92 predicted heat load calculating means 94 predicted heating heat load calculating means 96 predicted hot water heat load calculating means 104 predicted effective hot water storage heat quantity calculating means 106 predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means 112 predicted hot water heat load picking means 114 predicted energy Reduction ratio selecting means 116 Predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means 118 Predicted integrated hot water storage heat amount determining means 120 Temporary operation schedule setting means 126 Threshold setting means

Claims (18)

A combined heat and power device for generating electric power and heat, an inverter for systematically connecting the power generated from the combined heat and power device to a commercial power supply line, and recovering and storing the heat generated from the combined heat and power device as hot water A cogeneration system comprising: a hot water storage device; and a control means for controlling the operation of the cogeneration device.
The control means calculates a predicted energy reduction amount that is a difference between a predicted energy consumption amount when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated and a predicted energy consumption amount when the combined heat and power device is operated, and the predicted energy reduction A cogeneration system that controls the operation of the cogeneration device based on the quantity.   The control means calculates a predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water when operating the combined heat and power supply device, calculates a predicted energy reduction ratio that is the predicted energy reduction amount with respect to the predicted hot water storage amount, and the predicted energy reduction ratio The cogeneration system according to claim 1, wherein operation control of the combined heat and power supply device is performed based on the control.   3. The cogeneration system according to claim 2, wherein the control means controls the operation of the heat source combined device based on the predicted energy reduction ratio, the current load data and the past load data on the operation date.   The combined heat and power device is configured such that its output fluctuates stepwise in a plurality of stages depending on the size of the load, and the control means includes the predicted hot water storage amount and the predicted energy for the increased output from the minimum output. The cogeneration system according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the predicted energy reduction ratio is calculated based on a reduction amount. An auxiliary heating boiler for generating hot water is further provided, and the predicted hot water storage amount is a predicted effective hot water storage amount considering heat dissipation loss, and the control means sets the predicted energy reduction ratio P for a specific unit operation time as formula,
P = [(Predicted energy consumption E1 when the power plant and the heating boiler are operated) − (
Predicted energy consumption when operating a combined heat and power system E2)] / Specific prediction enabled
Hot water storage heat amount About predicted energy consumption E1 and E2,
E1 = (specific prediction power load / power generation efficiency of power plant) + (specific prediction effective amount of stored hot water / heating)
Boiler hot water supply efficiency) + (specific prediction heating heat load / heating boiler heating efficiency)
E2 = (specific predicted energy consumption of cogeneration equipment) + (specific predicted power purchase / power plant
Power generation efficiency) + [(specific prediction heating heat load)-(heat out of the exhaust heat of the combined heat and power unit
The cogeneration system according to any one of claims 2 to 4, wherein calculation is performed using the heating efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler. The control means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio Pp of the specific output with respect to the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit of the specific unit operation time by the following formula:
Pp = [(Cogeneration unit for operating power plant and heating boiler at specified output)
(Estimated energy savings when operating)-(Power plant and heating at minimum output)
Predicted energy when operating a combined heat and power system when operating a boiler
Energy reduction)] / [(Estimated effective hot water storage amount at specific output)-(Estimated effective hot water storage amount at minimum output)]
The cogeneration system according to claim 5, wherein the calculation is performed using   The control means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio, and sets an energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means for setting an energy reduction ratio threshold value based on the calculated predicted energy reduction ratio; Based on data and past load data, current energy reduction ratio calculation means for calculating a current current energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power device, and operation control of the combined heat and power device And when the current energy reduction ratio is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, the operation control means operates the combined heat and power unit with a minimum output, and the current energy reduction ratio is If the energy reduction ratio threshold value or more, the operation control means causes the heat source combined supply device to Cogeneration system according to claim 3, characterized in that operating at operating conditions as a reduction ratio.   The current energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates a current current energy reduction ratio for each increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit based on current load data and past load data on an operation day, and calculates If any of the calculated current energy reduction ratios is smaller than the energy reduction ratio threshold, the operation control means operates the combined heat and power unit with a minimum output, and at least one of the calculated current energy reduction ratios is When the energy reduction ratio threshold value or more, the operation control means operates the heat source combined device with the current energy reduction ratio equal to or more than the energy reduction ratio threshold value and the operation condition of the maximum output state. The cogeneration system according to claim 7.   The current energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates the current energy reduction ratio based on current power load data, current heating heat load data, and predicted hot water supply heat load data on an operation day. Cogeneration system.   The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means calculates a predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means for picking up a predicted hot water supply heat load at a predetermined operation schedule time, and a predicted effective hot water storage amount taking into consideration a heat dissipation loss of the predicted hot water storage amount. A predicted effective hot water storage calorific value calculating means, and a predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means for calculating the predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the minimum output of the combined heat and power supply device, the predicted hot water supply The thermal load pick-up means picks up the predicted hot water supply heat load generated through the predetermined operation schedule time in the order of the passage of time, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means picks up the predicted hot water supply heat picked up by the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means. Prediction considering heat loss up to the time before load generation 8. The code according to claim 7, wherein an effective hot water storage heat amount is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates the predicted energy reduction ratio before the time of occurrence of the predicted predicted hot water supply thermal load. Generation system.   The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means includes temporary operation schedule setting means for setting a temporary operation schedule of the cogeneration device, and the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means is generated through the predetermined operation schedule time. The estimated hot water supply thermal load is sequentially picked up in the order of time, and the temporary operation schedule setting means is set based on the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount and the predicted energy reduction ratio in the order of the predicted hot water supply heat load picked up. In consideration of the temporary operation schedule, sequentially set a temporary operation schedule including the predicted hot water supply thermal load picked up, when the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up all predicted hot water supply heat load of the operation schedule time, Temporary operation schedule setting means Cogeneration system according to claim 10, characterized in that setting the temporary operation schedule for all of the predicted hot-water supply heat load generated through operation schedule time.   The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means further includes a predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount calculating means for calculating a predicted effective required hot water heat amount required to cover the predicted hot water supply thermal load during the operation schedule time, and the predicted energy reduction ratio. Predictive energy reduction ratio selection means for selecting the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means for integrating the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the predicted hot water supply thermal load pickup means of the operation schedule time When the first predicted hot water supply heat load is picked up, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculating means calculates the predicted effective required hot water heat amount necessary to cover the first predicted hot water supply heat load, and the predicted effective hot water storage The calorific value calculation means is configured for each unit operation time before the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply heat load. The predicted effective hot water storage amount of output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculating means calculates the predicted amount of increase from the minimum output for each unit operation time before the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply thermal load. An energy reduction ratio is calculated, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means is set to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. When the corresponding predicted effective hot water storage heat amount is integrated, and the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount calculating means becomes equal to or exceeds the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount, the temporary operation schedule setting means is configured to reduce the predicted energy reduction. For the unit operation time for which the ratio is selected, the output status is determined based on whether the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected. Cogeneration system according to claim 11, the minimum output for the unit operating time, and sets a temporary operating schedule for the 1st predicted hot-water supply heat load was.   When the first predicted hot water supply heat load calculating unit picks up the first predicted hot water supply heat load, the predictive effective hot water storage heat amount calculation unit calculates the first hot water supply heat amount stored in the hot water storage device at the start of the operation schedule time. The first initial value for the load is calculated, and the first initial value is calculated as an effective first initial value in consideration of the heat dissipation loss due to the time before the occurrence of the first predicted hot water supply thermal load, and the first predicted value is calculated. 13. The cogeneration system according to claim 12, wherein the predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the first predicted hot water supply heat load is calculated based on the hot water supply heat load and the effective first initial value.   When the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up the second predicted hot water supply heat load of the operation schedule time, the predicted effective required hot water storage heat amount calculation means calculates the prediction for the first predicted hot water supply heat load. A value obtained by subtracting the first predicted hot water supply heat load from the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water heat amount integrated and calculated by the effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means is a second initial value for the second predicted hot water supply heat load, The second initial value is calculated as an effective second initial value in consideration of a heat radiation loss due to the time until the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated, and the second predicted hot water heat load and the effective second heat load are calculated. 14. The cogeneration system according to claim 13, wherein the predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the second predicted hot water supply heat load is calculated based on an initial value.   When the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up the second predicted hot water supply heat load of the operation schedule time, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means For the unit operation time, a predicted effective hot water storage amount for each power generation output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means performs the temporary operation for each unit operation time until the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. For unit operation time for which no schedule is set, the output is increased from the minimum output of the combined heat and power unit. For unit time for which the temporary operation schedule is set, the operation condition of the temporary operation schedule is set as the minimum output. The predicted energy reduction ratio for the increased output from the condition output is calculated, and the predicted energy is calculated. The reduction ratio selecting means sequentially selects the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means integrates the predicted effective hot water heat amount corresponding to the selected predicted energy reduction ratio. When the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculating means becomes equal to or exceeds the second predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the temporary operation schedule setting means has selected the predicted energy reduction ratio. For the unit operation time, the output state is set, and for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected, the minimum output is set as a provisional operation schedule for the first and second predicted hot water supply thermal loads. 15. The cogeneration system according to claim 14, characterized in that   When the predicted hot water supply heat load pickup means picks up the second predicted hot water supply heat load of the operation schedule time, the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount calculation means For the unit operation time, a predicted effective hot water storage amount for each power generation output is calculated, and the predicted energy reduction ratio calculation means calculates the temporary operation schedule for each unit operation time until the second predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated. For the unit operation time for which no is set, the increased output from the minimum output in the output range larger than the minimum output of the cogeneration device, and for the unit operation time for which the temporary operation schedule is set, the temporary operation schedule The increased output from the minimum output in the output range larger than the operating conditions of Calculating a measured energy reduction ratio, the predicted energy reduction ratio selecting means sequentially selecting the calculated predicted energy reduction ratios in descending order, and the predicted effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means selecting the predicted energy reduction ratio When the integrated value of the predicted effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means becomes equal to or exceeds the second predicted effective hot water storage heat amount, the provisional operation schedule setting means Is the output state for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is selected, the minimum output for the unit operation time for which the predicted energy reduction ratio is not selected, and the first and second predicted hot water supplies. The cogeneration system according to claim 14, wherein the cogeneration system is set as a temporary operation schedule for a heat load. Yonshisutemu.   The energy reduction ratio threshold value calculation setting means includes provisional operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means for integrating the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount generated when the temporary operation is performed according to the temporary operation schedule, and an energy reduction ratio threshold value. The temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage heat amount integration calculating means covers the first predicted effective required hot water storage amount for the first predicted hot water supply heat load. Until the tentative operation predicted effective hot water storage heat amount when the temporary operation schedule is temporarily operated in the tentative operation schedule in order of time elapsed from the start of the operation schedule time, the integrated value of the temporary operation prediction effective hot water storage amount integration calculation means is When it becomes equal to or exceeds the first predicted effective required hot water storage amount, the threshold value setting means is configured to perform the temporary operation up to the unit operation time. Cogeneration system according to claim 15 or 16 and sets the predicted energy reduction ratio of the minimum value in the Schedule as energy reduction ratio threshold.   The cogeneration system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the cogeneration device is configured such that its output varies steplessly depending on the size of a load.

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