JP2005063280A - Supply chain evaluation system and program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an evaluation system capable of establishing a supply chain model assuming uncertainty of demand forecast on a computer and verifying various economical effect. <P>SOLUTION: A first business body comprises a means for creating demand forecast information of a specific product and its error information, a means for creating sales plan information on the basis of such information, and its error information, and a means for creating procurement plan information for a second business body on the basis of such information, and its error information. The second business body comprises a means for creating demand forecast information of the product and its error information, a means for creating sales plan information on the basis of such information, and its error information, a means for creating shipment plan information on the basis of such information, and its error information, a means for creating production plan information on the basis of such information, and a means for creating procurement plan information for a third business body on the basis of such information, and its error information. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a supply chain evaluation system and a supply chain evaluation program, and in particular, reproduces a supply chain model simulating the structure, function, and interrelationship of a plurality of sales entities constituting a supply chain on a computer. The present invention relates to a simulation technique that collects various data generated by operating the computer according to preset conditions and analyzes the data to verify the economic effect of the supply chain reform.

In order for industrial products to reach consumers, it is indispensable that there are business entities (companies) such as retailers, distributors, logistics companies, materials and raw material suppliers as well as manufacturers (manufacturers). , Transactions such as purchasing and sales are being carried out several times. In addition, there are a plurality of business entities (special departments) such as sales, management, manufacturing, procurement, and logistics within the same company, and the above transactions are realized through linkages between the business entities.
The connection between various entities required to provide such industrial products to consumers is referred to as the supply chain, and at present, the information is shared among the entities to improve the efficiency of transactions. Suppressing the loss of sales opportunities due to shortage of products and raw materials and the damage caused by the occurrence of defective inventory are actively studied as a problem of so-called supply chain management (SCM).

In order to achieve efficiency in a supply chain in which a large number of actors are intertwined in this way, first, the problems of the current supply chain are extracted, and then improvement measures for solving these problems are executed on a trial and error basis. However, it is impractical to try directly into the supply chain that is actually in operation.
For this reason, a so-called SCM simulator has emerged that reproduces a model that abstractly represents a raw supply chain on a computer, and executes a transaction between each subject under a specific environment.

For example, in the case of a supply chain model creation system disclosed in Patent Document 1, a supply chain model is constructed by selecting a module representing an action of each business subject on a computer screen and linking the modules. In addition, by making each module function according to preset action rules and parameters, various economic indicators (sales, profit, inventory quantity, etc.) generated in each module can be output to the outside.
In addition, during this simulation process, a demand forecast for a specific product is automatically made, a production plan is made according to the sales volume based on this demand forecast, and a procurement plan necessary to achieve this production plan is also prepared. It is planned.
By analyzing the output economic indicators using such an SCM simulator, it is possible to quantitatively grasp what problems are in the current supply chain. It is also possible to confirm in advance whether or not a specific improvement measure will work by re-running the simulation after making changes to the action rules and capacities of each business entity and the linkage structure between each other. It becomes possible.

JP 2002-215858 A

However, although the conventional SCM simulator has a function to automatically make a demand forecast, the subsequent operation is defined on the assumption that the forecast is correct. It was not designed with the possibility that demand forecasts could be missed.
For this reason, even if it is possible to verify relatively simple events such as the efficiency of the logistics route and the suitability of the business flow, the suitability and the stability of the countermeasure plan in case the demand forecast is lost Could not be verified.
In short, in spite of the fact that demand forecasts may be missed in actual business, even though various preventive measures are taken by each sales entity, these cannot be reproduced on the computer with the existing SCM simulator. I have to say that I can only get real-world analysis and improvement measures.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-mentioned conventional problems. A supply chain model is built on a computer on the assumption of uncertainties in demand forecasting, and the risk in the event that demand forecasts fail is shared. It is an object of the present invention to provide a supply chain evaluation system and an evaluation program capable of verifying whether or not the transaction rules are appropriate and the economic effects of planning based on the existence of certain errors.

  In order to achieve the above object, the supply chain evaluation system according to claim 1 sets information defining the configuration, function, and interrelationship of a plurality of business entities in a model database, and based on the setting information. A supply chain evaluation system that reproduces a predetermined supply chain model on a computer and registers the execution result of a simulation generated by operating each business entity in accordance with conditions preset in the model database in the result database , A means for generating demand forecast information for a specific product based on at least sales performance information in the past simulation, and registering it in the result database as demand forecast information of the first sales entity, demand forecast information in the past simulation, Difference from sales performance information Then, the error information related to the demand forecast information is generated and registered in the result database, and the sales plan information of the product is generated based on the demand forecast information. The means for registering in the result database, the error information related to the sales plan based on the error information related to the demand forecast information, the means for registering in the result database, and the product based on the sales plan information Means for generating procurement plan information and registering in the result database as procurement plan information for the first sales entity for the second sales entity, and error information relating to the procurement plan based on the error information relating to the sales plan Generated and registered in the result database, sales result information in the past simulation, or procurement plan information from the first sales entity. A means for generating demand forecast information for the product and registering it in the result database as demand forecast information of the second sales entity, a difference between demand forecast information and sales performance information in the past simulation, or the first Based on the error information related to the procurement plan of the sales entity, the error information related to the demand forecast information is generated and registered in the result database, and the sales plan information of the product is generated based on the demand forecast information. Means for registering in the result database as sales plan information of the second sales entity, means for generating error information relating to the sales plan based on error information relating to the demand forecast information, and registering in the result database , Generating shipping plan information of the product based on the sales plan information and registering it in the result database as shipping plan information of the second sales entity New error information is generated by applying a first safety factor relating to the second sales entity set in the model database to the error information relating to the sales plan information and the error information relating to the sales plan information, and Means for registering in the result database in association with information, production plan information for the product based on the shipping plan information and its error information, and registering in the result database as production plan information of the second sales entity Generating the procurement plan information for the product based on the means, the production plan information, the raw material requirement information set in the model database, and the raw material inventory information stored in the result database; Means for registering in the result database as procurement plan information for the third sales entity of the entity, and error information relating to the sales plan information Means for generating new error information by applying the second safety factor relating to the second business entity set in the model database, and storing it in the result database in association with the procurement plan information. It is characterized by having prepared.

In this supply chain evaluation system, each sales entity can formulate its own demand forecast as described above, and formulate a sales plan, a shipment plan, a production plan, and a procurement plan based on this demand forecast. be able to.
In addition, error information for the demand forecast is generated based on past simulation execution result information, and this error information is used as it is or after correction based on the judgment of each business entity (department). Because it is a mechanism that propagates between business entities and between business entities, a supply chain model that assumes that demand forecasts will deviate is built on a computer, its problems are extracted, and the appropriateness of the improvement measures in advance It becomes possible to verify.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 2 is based on the system of claim 1 and, after a predetermined simulation period has elapsed, the supply chain evaluation system from the first sales entity with respect to the second sales entity accumulated in the result database. The procurement plan information and its error information are compared with the order record information from the first business entity for the second business entity, and the first safety factor related to the second business entity set in the model database is obtained. It is characterized by having means for adjusting.
In the second sales entity, the error information associated with the shipping plan is generated by applying the first safety coefficient (correction coefficient) to the error information related to the sales plan as described above.
For this reason, the first safety coefficient is adjusted according to the simulation execution result (the degree of deviation between the procurement plan and the ordering record by the first sales entity), and a function for changing the correction degree with respect to the error information of the sales plan is provided. Thus, the authority to make a judgment different from the sales planning department (sales department) can be given to the shipping planning department, and the economic effect in that case can be verified.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 3 is based on the system according to claim 1 or 2, and is further configured to adjust the price from the model database according to the basic price information of the specific product and the order quantity. The elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the sales entity of No. 2 and the elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the second sales entity for adjusting the price according to the magnitude of the error are read out from the above result database. Means for determining the price of the product by applying the procurement plan information and error information thereof relating to the first sales entity, and the result database as the price for the first sales entity by the second sales entity And a means for registering with the device.
As a result, it is possible to verify the economic effect when error information is reflected in price setting.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 4 is based on the system according to claims 1 to 3, and is a first for adjusting the price from the model database according to the basic price information of the specified raw material and the order quantity. The elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the third sales entity and the elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the third sales entity for adjusting the price according to the magnitude of the error are read out and read out from the above result database Means for determining the price of the raw material by applying the procurement plan information and the error information thereof relating to the second business entity, and the result database as the price for the second business entity by the third business entity And a means for registering with the device.
Also in this case, it is possible to verify the economic effect when error information is reflected in the price setting.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 5 is based on the system of claims 1 to 4, and further includes simulation execution result information accumulated in the result database, procurement plan information of the first sales entity, and When the ordering record from the first sales entity to the second sales entity does not reach the amount obtained by applying the error information to the procurement plan information, the error information is compared with the second information from the first sales entity. Information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid to the sales entity is registered in the result database, and the ordering record from the first sales entity to the second sales entity exceeds the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information. Information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid from the first sales entity to the second sales entity is registered in the result database, and the second sales entity If a shortage occurs within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented to the sales entity, the second sales entity shall pay the prescribed compensation amount to the first sales entity. The present invention is characterized by comprising means for registering the indicated information in the result database.
As a result, it becomes possible to verify in advance the validity of a transaction rule in which the risk based on the uncertainty of demand is shared between the procurement side and the sales side.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 6 is based on the system according to claims 1 to 5, and further includes simulation execution result information accumulated in the result database, procurement plan information of the second sales entity, and When the ordering record from the second sales entity to the third sales entity does not reach the amount obtained by applying the error information to the procurement plan information, the error information is compared with the third information from the second sales entity. Information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid to the business entity is registered in the above result database, and the order record from the second business entity to the third business entity exceeds the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information. Information indicating that a predetermined amount of compensation is to be paid from the second sales entity to the third sales entity is registered in the result database. If there is a shortage within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented to the sales entity, the third sales entity shall pay the prescribed compensation amount to the second sales entity. The present invention is characterized by comprising means for registering the indicated information in the result database.
In this case as well, it is possible to verify in advance the validity of a transaction rule in which a risk based on the uncertainty of demand is shared between the procurement side and the sales side.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 7 is based on the system according to claims 1 to 6, and further, a payment compensation amount for the third business entity by the second business entity accumulated in the result database, Comparing the compensation amount received from the third sales entity for the second sales entity and adjusting the second safety factor relating to the second sales entity set in the model database, Yes.
In the second sales entity, the error information accompanying the procurement plan is generated by applying the second safety coefficient (correction coefficient) to the error information related to the sales plan as described above.
Therefore, the sales plan planning department (sales department) is provided with a function to adjust the second safety factor according to the simulation execution result (balance of compensation amount) and change the correction degree for the error information of the sales plan. It is possible to give the procurement planning department authority to make decisions that are different from the above, and to verify the economic effects in that case.

The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 8 is based on the system of claims 1 to 7, and when generating production plan information based on the shipment plan information and its error information, When production needs to be planned, a high priority is set for each product lot in descending order of error rate, and when production of each product lot can be advanced, the production start date is set in advance in descending order of error rate. It is characterized by having a means for setting late.
As a result, it is possible to verify in advance the effectiveness of a production plan that mitigates shortage risk and defective inventory risk based on demand uncertainty.

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 9, wherein the computer reproduces a predetermined supply chain model based on information defining the configuration, function, and mutual relationship of a plurality of business entities set in the model database, And a supply chain evaluation program that functions as a means for registering in the result database the simulation execution results generated by operating each business entity in accordance with conditions set in the model database in advance. Based on the sales performance information in the system, the demand forecast information of the specific product is generated and registered in the result database as the demand forecast information of the first sales entity, the difference between the demand forecast information and the sales performance information in the past simulation Base Means for generating error information related to the demand forecast information and registering it in the result database; generating sales plan information of the product based on the demand forecast information; and as the sales plan information of the first sales entity Means for registering in the result database, error information for the sales plan based on the error information for the demand forecast information, means for registering in the result database, procurement plan information for the product based on the sales plan information Generating the error information relating to the procurement plan based on the error information relating to the sales plan, the means for registering in the result database as the procurement plan information for the second sales entity of the first sales entity, Based on the means for registering in the result database, the sales performance information in the past simulation, or the procurement plan information from the first sales entity, Means for generating demand forecast information for the second sales entity and registering it in the result database as demand forecast information for the second sales entity, the difference between the demand forecast information and the sales performance information in the past simulation, or the procurement of the first sales entity Means for generating error information related to the demand forecast information based on the error information related to the plan, registering it in the result database, and generating sales plan information of the product based on the demand forecast information; Means for registering in the result database as sales plan information, means for generating error information related to the sales plan based on error information related to the demand forecast information, and registering in the result database based on the sales plan information Means for generating shipping plan information of the product and registering it in the result database as shipping plan information of the second sales entity, the sales plan New error information is generated by applying the first safety factor related to the second business entity set in the model database to the error information related to the information, and the result database is associated with the shipping plan information. Means for registering in the product database, generating the production plan information of the product based on the shipping plan information and its error information, and registering it in the result database as production plan information of the second sales entity, the production plan information, Procurement plan information for the product is generated based on the raw material requirement information set in the model database and the raw material inventory information stored in the result database, and the second sales entity procures to the third sales entity. Means for registering as plan information in the result database, and error information related to the sales plan information, the model database A new safety information is generated by applying a second safety factor relating to the set second sales entity, and the new safety information is associated with the procurement plan information and stored in the result database. .

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 10 is premised on the program of claim 9, and further, a computer is connected to the first sales entity for the second sales entity stored in the result database after a predetermined simulation period has elapsed. The first plan related to the second business entity set in the model database is compared with the procurement plan information and the error information thereof from the first sales entity with respect to the second business entity. It is characterized by functioning as a means for adjusting the coefficient.

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 11 is based on the program according to claim 9 or 10, and further, the computer adjusts the price from the model database according to the basic price information of the specific product and the order quantity. The elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the second sales entity and the elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the second sales entity for adjusting the price according to the size of the error are read out from the above result database. Means for determining the price of the product by applying the read procurement plan information and its error information relating to the first sales entity, and the result as the price for the first sales entity by the second sales entity It is characterized by functioning as means for registering in a database.

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 12 is based on the program of claims 9 to 11, and further, the computer adjusts the price from the model database according to the basic price information of the specified raw material and the amount of the order quantity. The elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the third sales entity and the elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the third sales entity for adjusting the price according to the size of the error are read out from the above result database. Means for determining the price of the raw material by applying the read procurement plan information and error information relating to the second business entity, and the above result as the price for the second business entity by the third business entity It is characterized by functioning as means for registering in a database.

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 13 is based on the program of claims 9 to 12, and further includes a computer, simulation execution result information stored in the result database, and procurement plan information of the first sales entity. If the ordering record from the first sales entity to the second sales entity does not reach the amount obtained by applying the error information to the procurement plan information, the first sales entity Information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid to the second sales entity is registered in the result database, and the ordering result from the first sales entity to the second sales entity is the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information. If it exceeds, the information indicating that the predetermined compensation amount is paid from the first business entity to the second business entity is registered in the result database, If a shortage occurs within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented to the second sales entity from the first sales entity, the second sales entity will It is characterized by functioning as means for registering information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is paid in the result database.

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 14 is based on the program according to claims 9 to 13, and further includes a computer, simulation execution result information stored in the result database, and procurement plan information of the second sales entity. If the ordering record from the second sales entity to the third sales entity does not reach the amount obtained by applying the error information to the procurement plan information, the second sales entity Information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid to the third business entity is registered in the result database, and the ordering result from the second business entity to the third business entity is the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information. If it exceeds the value, information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid from the second sales entity to the third sales entity is registered in the result database, If there is a shortage within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented by the second sales entity to the third sales entity, the third sales entity It is characterized by functioning as means for registering information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is paid in the result database.

  The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 15 is premised on the program of claims 9 to 14, and further includes a computer with a payment compensation amount for the third business entity by the second business entity stored in the result database. , Comparing the compensation amount received from the third business entity with respect to the second business entity, and functioning as a means for adjusting the second safety factor related to the second business entity set in the model database. It is characterized by having prepared.

  A supply chain evaluation program according to a sixteenth aspect is based on the program according to the ninth to fifteenth aspects. Further, when generating the production plan information based on the shipment plan information and its error information, the computer further includes a plurality of programs on the same day. When it is necessary to plan product production, high priority is set for each product lot in descending order of error rate, and when production of each product lot is possible, production is started in descending order of error rate. It is characterized by functioning as a means for setting the day later.

In the supply chain evaluation system according to claim 1 and the supply chain evaluation program according to claim 9, the business entity can make a unique demand forecast as described above, and based on this demand forecast. Sales plans, shipping plans, production plans, and procurement plans.
In addition, error information for the demand forecast is generated based on past simulation execution result information, and this error information is propagated between sales entities or between business entities as it is or after correction. Therefore, it is possible to construct a supply chain model on the assumption that the demand prediction is off, extract the problems, and verify the validity of the improvement measures in advance.

  In the supply chain evaluation system according to claim 2 and the supply chain evaluation program according to claim 10, according to the execution result of the simulation (the degree of divergence between the procurement plan and the order record by the first sales entity) Ships the authority to make different judgments from the sales planning department (sales department) because it has a function to adjust the first safety factor related to the second sales entity and change the correction level for the error information in the sales plan It can be granted to the planning department and the economic effect in that case can be verified.

  In the supply chain evaluation system according to claims 3 and 4 and the supply chain evaluation program according to claims 11 and 12, it is possible to verify the economic effect when error information is reflected in pricing. Become.

  In the supply chain evaluation system according to claims 5 and 6 and the supply chain evaluation program according to claims 13 and 14, a transaction rule for sharing a risk based on uncertainty of demand between the procurement side and the sales side It is possible to verify in advance the validity of.

  In the supply chain evaluation system according to claim 7 and the supply chain evaluation program according to claim 15, the second safety related to the second business entity according to the execution result of the simulation (balance of compensation amount) Since it has a function to adjust the coefficient and change the correction degree to the error information of the sales plan, the authority to make a judgment different from the sales planning department (sales department) can be given to the procurement planning department, It is possible to verify the economic effect of the case.

  In the supply chain evaluation system according to claim 8 and the supply chain evaluation program according to claim 16, the effectiveness of the production plan for mitigating shortage risk and defective inventory risk based on uncertainties in demand. Can be verified.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of a supply chain evaluation system according to the present invention. This system 10 includes a model formation processing unit 11, a simulation execution unit 12, a demand prediction module 13, and a production planning module 14. A result display processing unit 16, a model database 17, a performance database 18, a result database 19, an input device (mouse or keyboard) 20, and a display 21.

Among these, the model formation processing unit 11, the simulation execution unit 12, the demand prediction module 13, the production planning module 14, and the result display processing unit 16 are configured such that the CPU of a computer (PC or the like) set up with a dedicated application program is the OS And it implement | achieves by performing a required process according to an application program.
The model database 17, the results database 18, and the result database 19 are stored in the hard disk of the computer.

The user of the evaluation system 10 activates the model formation processing unit 11 and displays a supply chain design screen on the display 21 (not shown).
A plurality of symbols representing business entities belonging to the supply chain are displayed around the design screen. The user arranges each symbol on the design screen by a mouse operation and links the symbols.

As the symbols, for example, a sales department (Sales), a management department (Management), a factory department (Plant), a procurement department (Procurement), a logistics department (Logistics), and a warehouse department (Warehouse) are prepared.
The user can construct a supply chain model having an arbitrary configuration by freely combining these symbols.
First, a business entity (company) is formed by associating a plurality of business entities under the concept of Company. Next, by linking the business entities belonging to each business entity, the cooperation structure between companies and departments is reproduced.

FIG. 2 shows a supply chain model 30 formed in this manner, comprising a wholesaler 31, a manufacturer 32, and a raw material supplier 33.
Among these, the wholesaler 31 includes business entities of a sales department 34, a procurement department 35, a warehouse department 36, and a logistics department 37.
The manufacturer 32 includes a sales department 38, a management department 39, a factory department 40, a procurement department 41, a logistics department 42, a first warehouse department 43, and a second warehouse department 44.
Further, the raw material supplier 33 includes a sales department 45, a warehouse department 46, and a logistics department 47.

Although the supply chain model 30 having a relatively simple configuration is illustrated here for convenience of illustration, a supply chain model having a more complicated configuration is actually formed.
For example, a large number of sales departments, factory departments, management departments, procurement departments, warehouse departments, and logistics departments can be established within the same sales entity.
It is also possible to build a supply chain model with multiple wholesalers, manufacturers, raw material suppliers, or retailers.

Each business entity is composed of an agent program having its own behavior rules and autonomous learning function, and the behavior pattern, capacity, and ability can be adjusted by changing parameter settings.
Specifically, a parameter setting screen that can be changed is displayed by right-clicking the symbol of each business entity on the above design screen, and the user realizes the desired supply chain by selecting and inputting an arbitrary value. To do.

When the user constructs one supply chain model as described above, the model formation processing unit 11 stores all data related to the model in the model database 17.
Next, the user requests the system 10 to execute a simulation. At this time, the user designates a simulation period (for example, three months).
Upon receiving this, the simulation execution unit 12 reads the supply chain model stored in the model database 17 and executes the simulation for a specified period.
Specifically, a timing control program called a scheduler is activated, an agent program that plays each business subject is activated according to a preset business flow, and necessary processing is instructed thereto.

Hereinafter, a typical processing procedure of the simulation will be described based on the supply chain model 30 of FIG.
First, the sales department 34 of the wholesaler 31 refers to the performance data of the past certain period related to the specific product stored in the performance database 18, or the simulation execution result data of the past certain period stored in the result database 19, Demand forecast information for the next three months is generated. At this time, error information (error rate) with respect to the demand prediction information is also calculated based on the difference between the past demand prediction and the simulation execution result. The sales department 34 can also output necessary information to the demand prediction module 13 to generate demand prediction information and its error information.
Next, the sales department 34 generates sales plan information and its error information based on this demand prediction information and its error information, and outputs them to the procurement department 35.
Receiving this, the procurement department 35 generates procurement plan information by referring to the inventory information obtained from the warehouse department 36, presents it to the sales department 38 of the manufacturer 32 together with the error information, and places a planned order.

The sales department 38 of the manufacturer 32 accepts the procurement plan information from the wholesaler 31 as demand prediction information as it is, or refers to the execution result data of the past simulation and generates demand prediction information for the next three months. At this time, error information (error rate) with respect to the demand prediction information is also calculated based on the difference between the past demand prediction and the simulation execution result. The sales department 38 can output necessary information to the demand prediction module 13 to generate demand prediction information and its error information.
Next, the sales department 38 generates sales plan information and its error information based on this demand prediction information and its error information, and outputs them to the management department 39.
In response to this, the management department 39 refers to the production capacity information of the factory department 40 set in the model database 17 to generate shipping plan information and its error information, and outputs it to the factory department 40.
The factory department 40 outputs the shipment plan information and error information to the production plan module 14 to generate production plan information.
The procurement department 41 refers to the production plan information, confirms the inventory information from the first warehouse department 43, generates the procurement plan information, and presents it to the sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 together with predetermined error information. And place a planned order.

The sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 checks the inventory information from the warehouse department 46 and instructs the distribution department 47 to deliver if sufficient inventory exists.
In response to this, the logistics department 47 instructs the warehouse department 46 to ship the necessary raw materials and delivers it to the first warehouse department 43 of the manufacturer 32.
This raw material is input to the factory section 40 of the manufacturer 32.
The factory department 40 processes raw materials and manufactures products according to the production plan.
The products manufactured by the factory department 40 are stored in the first warehouse department 43 via the logistics department 42, and then, under the direction of the logistics department 42, the products of the wholesaler 31 via the second warehouse department 44 are stored. Delivered to warehouse department 36.
The sales department 34 that has received an order from the retailer delivers the product stored in the warehouse department 36 via the logistics department 37 to the retailer.

In this way, in the supply chain model 30, transactions are performed between the procurement department of one sales entity and the sales department of another sales entity, and products and raw materials are delivered to the other party via the logistics and warehouse departments. Is done.
Along with this, the flow of money, such as payment of purchase costs and recording of necessary expenses, is also simulated.
In addition, the flow of information such as delivery instructions, plan information, and error information notification between business entities is also simulated.

Result information generated in the execution process of the simulation is stored one by one in the result database 19 and can be displayed on the display 21 via the result display processing unit 16.
That is, when the user selects the necessary information type and display format via the input device 20 and requests the system 10 to display, the result display processing unit 16 extracts the necessary information from the result database 19, Is converted to the specified display format and output to the display 21.
As a result, the user confirms not only the overall economic effects obtained from the operation of the supply chain model 30, but also the economic indicators (sales, profits, sales volume, inventory volume, etc.) at each business entity level It becomes possible to do.

Next, the mechanism of demand forecast information generation in the evaluation system 10 will be described with reference to the block diagram of FIG.
For example, the sales department 38 of the manufacturer 32 instructs the demand prediction module 13 to generate future demand prediction information regarding a specific product.
In response to this, the demand forecasting module 13 stores the past data 50 stored in the past database 18 (for example, the past one year) or the past simulation result data 51 stored in the past database 19. By substituting into a predetermined demand prediction algorithm, for example, forecast information 52 of demand for the next three months and its error information (error rate) 53 are calculated. The demand forecast information 52 and the error information 53, which are calculation results, are stored in the result database 19.
The error information 53 is calculated based on, for example, a difference between demand prediction information in a past simulation and simulation result information (sales performance information).

  Instead of using the demand prediction module 13, the sales department 38 of the manufacturer 32 outputs the procurement plan information 54 and its error information 55 output from the procurement department 35 of the wholesaler 31 and stored in the result database 19 as they are. It can also be accepted as 32 demand forecast information 52 and error information 53 and stored in the result database 19.

Next, the sales department 38 of the manufacturer 32 is specific to the sales department 38 set in the model database 17 with respect to the demand forecast information 52 and its error information 53 stored in the result database 19 as shown in FIG. By applying the sales plan adjustment rate information 56, sales plan information 57 and its error information 58 are generated and stored in the result database 19.
Note that when the demand forecast information 52 and its error information 53 are not adjusted, the value of the sales plan adjustment rate information 56 is set to 1.0. As a result, “demand forecast information 52 and its error information 53 = sales plan information 57 and its error information 58”.

When the sales plan information 57 and its error information 58 are generated, the management department 39 is activated, and as shown in FIG. 5, the first safety coefficient information 59 and the factory stored in the model database 17 are stored therein. By applying the department acceptance rate information 60, the shipping plan information 61 and its error information 62 are generated and stored in the result database 19.
This first safety factor information 59 is a barometer that represents the reliability of the management department 39 with respect to the sales department 38, and when the management department 39 reproduces a supply chain with high confidence in the sales department 38, This safety factor is set to 1.0. On the other hand, when the management department 39 reproduces a supply chain that does not trust the sales department 38 much, the safety factor is set to deviate from 1.0.
Further, the underwriting rate information 60 of the factory department means an allocation ratio when the manufacturer 32 has a plurality of factory departments. If there is only one factory department, the underwriting rate is naturally 100%.

When the shipping plan information 61 and its error information 62 are generated, the factory department 40 is activated and outputs them to the production plan module 14 to instruct the generation of production plan information as shown in FIG.
In response to this, the production planning module 14 generates production plan information for hedging out-of-stock risks and defective inventory risks caused by planning errors, and returns them to the factory department 40 (details will be described later).
Upon receiving this, the factory department 40 registers the production plan information 63 in the result database 19. In addition, after procurement of raw materials, products are manufactured according to the plan.

When a production plan is drafted by the factory department 40, the procurement department 41 is activated, and the production plan information 63, the sales plan error information 58, and the first warehouse department 43 are reported from the result database 19, as shown in FIG. In addition to reading out the raw material inventory information 64, the raw material requirement information 65, the second safety factor information 66, the purchase ratio information 67 by other company's sales department, and the order quantity exceeds the plan. Model database 17 includes additional unit price information 68 for other company sales departments, compensation unit price information 69 for other company sales departments when order quantity is less than planned, and compensation unit price information 70 for other company sales departments unable to deliver due to shortage The procurement plan information 71 and its error information 72 addressed to the sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 are generated in consideration of these, and registered in the result database 19.
The procurement plan information 71 includes information such as the type, quantity, and procurement deadline of raw materials necessary for product production.

The second safety coefficient information 66 is a correction coefficient for emphasizing or mitigating the error information 58 related to the sales plan information 57. When this is larger than 1, the error width is expanded and the raw material supplier 33 Whereas it is reported to the sales department 45, when it is smaller than 1, the error margin is reduced and it is reported.
The purchase ratio information 67 for each sales department of another company means an allocation ratio in the case of purchasing raw materials from a plurality of raw material suppliers. When purchasing raw materials from a single supplier, the purchase ratio is 100%.
The surcharge unit price information 68 to the sales department of other companies when the order quantity exceeds the plan is that the final transaction quantity (order quantity) exceeds the original procurement plan quantity plus an error, This means a penalty amount paid by the manufacturer 32 to the raw material supplier 33 and is set in the model database 17 in advance.
Compensation unit price information 69 for the sales department of other companies when the order quantity is less than the plan is the manufacturer's information when the final transaction quantity (order quantity) is less than the original procurement plan quantity minus the error. 32 means the penalty amount paid to the raw material supplier 33.
Compensation unit price information 70 when the other company's sales department could not deliver due to a shortage is based on the information from the raw material supplier 33 when the shortage occurs within the amount of the original procurement plan amount plus an error. 32 means the penalty amount that can be received.

Upon receiving the procurement plan information 71 and the error information 72, the sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 determines the price according to the ordering conditions and sells the raw material based on the price.
That is, as shown in FIG. 8, the sales department 45 includes the procurement plan information 71 and its error information 72 presented from the procurement department 41 of the manufacturer 32, the basic price information 73 stored in the model database 17, the volume The discount elasticity coefficient information 74 and the risk premium elasticity coefficient information 75 are read to generate price information 76 for the transaction and register it in the result database 19.
Here, the elasticity coefficient information 74 of the volume discount is information for correcting the basic price in accordance with the amount of transaction, and is set so that the price decreases as the transaction amount increases.
On the other hand, the elasticity coefficient information 75 of the risk premium is information for correcting the basic price according to the error information 72, and is set such that the price is lower as the error rate is smaller.

  The management department 39 of the manufacturer 32 has a learning function. That is, as shown in FIG. 9, the shipping plan information 61 self-established every fixed period, the order record information 77 in the simulation so far, and the current inventory information 78 are read from the result database 18, and The first safety coefficient information 59 and the adjustment rate change sensitivity information 79 in learning are read from the model database 17, and the first safety coefficient information 59 is self-adjusted in consideration of these information.

For example, if the order received is significantly lower than the original shipment plan and the inventory volume has increased, this means that the safety stock is too large, so the safety factor has been modified to be updated and registered in the model database 17. To do.
On the other hand, if there is a shortage of orders that exceeds the original shipment plan, this means that the safety stock is not enough. Register for update.

Here, when the adjustment sensitivity change sensitivity information 79 in learning is set high, the above correction degree increases, whereas when it is set low, the correction degree appears weak.
Therefore, in order to reproduce the management department 39 that reacts quickly (or lightly) to changes in the environment, this sensitivity may be set relatively high.
On the other hand, in order to reproduce the management department 39 that is insensitive (or cautious) to changes in the environment, this sensitivity is set to be relatively low.

  The procurement department 41 of the manufacturer 32 also has a learning function. That is, as shown in FIG. 10, penalty amount information 80 paid to the sales departments of other companies at regular intervals, penalty amount information 81 received from the sales departments of other companies, and price information 82 for each sales department of other companies. Is read from the result database 18, and the second safety coefficient information 66 and the purchase ratio information 67 for each sales department are read from the model database 17, and the second safety coefficient information 66 and the sales department information for each sales department are taken into account. The purchase ratio information 67 is corrected and registered in the model database 17.

In other words, if the payment penalty is high, it means that the error rate presented to the sales department of the other company is too small, so the procurement department 41 makes a correction to increase the second safety factor 66 in the positive direction. Apply.
On the other hand, if the receiving penalty is high, it is determined whether or not correction is necessary in view of the price. That is, in the sales department of other companies, the price is set lower as the error rate presented by the procurement department is smaller as described above. Therefore, the second safety factor information 66 has been corrected to decrease in the negative direction. The first strategy is to lower the price by lowering the error rate presented in. On the other hand, when the price is within the allowable range, there may be an option of deferring the second safety coefficient information 66 and earning a penalty.
When there are a plurality of sales departments that conduct transactions, the procurement department 41 can compare each price, payment penalty amount, and receipt penalty amount, and make corrections that increase the purchase ratio information 67 from the more advantageous sales department.

In this evaluation system 10, the buyer-side procurement department can conclude a transaction rule with the seller-side sales department to share the risk due to demand uncertainty.
Although partially overlapping with the description so far, the transaction procedure between the procurement department 41 of the manufacturer 32 and the sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 is organized here in accordance with the flowchart of FIG.

First, the procurement department 41 of the manufacturer 32 presents the procurement plan information 71 and the error information 72 to the sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 (S10).
Receiving this, the sales department 45 of the raw material supplier 33 sets the price of the raw material according to the total amount and error rate of the transaction described in the procurement plan (S12), and starts the transaction (S14).

Then, after the transaction based on the procurement plan is completed, the transaction performance is evaluated, and when the procurement department 41 does not reach the amount that added the error rate to the procurement plan initially presented (S16), the seller side has a bad inventory. Therefore, a penalty amount is added to the buyer-side procurement department 41 (S18).
Conversely, if the transaction results exceed the amount that takes into account the error rate in the procurement plan (S20), the sales department 45 will still be forced to take an unexpected response. It is added (S18).
On the other hand, if a shortage occurs within the range of the amount that takes into account the error rate in the procurement plan (S22), the result is that the buyer side is deprived of the sales opportunity. It is added (S24).

Further, according to the evaluation system 10, it is possible to take measures for hedging out-of-stock risk and defective inventory risk due to demand uncertainty in the production planning process.
Hereinafter, a production planning method by the production planning module 14 will be described.
First, when the production planning module 14 is instructed by the factory department 40 of the manufacturer 32, the production planning module 14 formulates a production plan necessary for shipping products according to the shipping plan as described above.
At this time, considering the error rate of the shipping plan, a production plan is prepared by adjusting the shipping plan in order to prevent shortage.
In addition, when there are a plurality of product lots to be produced on the same day, the risk of being a missing item is high in descending order of error rate, so the priority is set higher in the order of products with the highest error rate. If the production capacity of the factory is not sufficient, production is performed in the order of the above priority, and the remaining portion is sent to the next day's production.
On the other hand, when there is a surplus in the production capacity of the factory, the production is carried out in advance, taking into consideration the number of days the product arrives in the store, but in this case, the higher the error rate, the higher the risk of defective inventory. Therefore, the advance production (early production) start date is set late.

The above will be described based on a specific example. For example, when the shipping plan for the products 1 to 5 is prepared by the management department 39 as shown in Table 1 of FIG. Since there is a stock quantity of 500 pieces, even if no production is performed, it can be covered by the stock until May 9th, but there will be a shortage of 50 pieces on May 10th, so after that Production needs to be done.
Similarly, it is necessary to produce product 2 on or after May 12, product 3 on or after May 9, product 4 on or after May 11, and product 5 on or after May 10 It becomes.

Error information is added to the shipment plan for each product, and as shown in Table 2, the error amount is actually added to the shipment plan amount in Table 1 in order to avoid shortage when the demand fluctuates upward. It is necessary to secure the additional shipping amount.
As a result, the production start date is after May 9 for product 1, after May 6 for product 2, after May 9 for product 3, and after May 9 for product 4. Each will be faster.
On the other hand, since the error rate is set low for the product 5, the production start date remains on May 10 as in the case of Table 1.

Table 3 shows the amount of production required for each product on a daily basis, and it can be understood that production is required only for the product 2 between May 6th and May 8th.
On the other hand, on May 9th, production of product 1 to product 4 is required. In this case, in order to reduce the risk of shortage, the priority of production is ascending in descending order of error rate as follows. Is set.
Priority 1 → Product 4 lot (error rate: 2)
Priority 2 → Product 2 lot (error rate: 0.5)
Priority 3 → Product 1 lot (error rate: 0.2)
Priority 4 → Product 3 lot (error rate: 0.1)
Therefore, if there is no room in the production schedule of the factory department 40, production will be started in order of the above priority on May 9, and lots that could not be produced on the same day will be sent to production on the next 10th. It becomes.

However, since each product is in stock as of April 30, there is a margin in the production capacity of the factory department 40 from May 1st to May 5th.
For this reason, each product is produced ahead of schedule taking into account the deadline days (days until delivery). For example, in the case of the product 2, since the deadline is 7 days, the May 6 lot and the May 7 lot can be produced in advance on May 1. On the other hand, if the lot of May 8 is not produced after May 2, it will expire at the time of delivery, and will become a defective stock.

Further, regarding the production lot on May 9, product 1 (deadline number: 8 days) can be produced in advance on May 1, and product 2 (deadline days: 7 days) in advance. On March 2nd, product 3 (expiration days: 9 days) will be producible on April 30, and product 4 (expiration days: 7 days) will be producible on May 2. Therefore, the production possible range of each product is as follows.
Product 1: May 1 to May 9 Product 2: May 2 to May 9 Product 3: April 30 to May 9 Product 4: May 2 to May 9

In this way, if the production capacity of the factory department 40 has room, it is possible to set the production start date before the production request date within the range satisfying the deadline days of each product. In order to reduce the risk of defective inventory as much as possible, products with a higher error rate are set ahead of production start date (early production start date) later.
In the case of a lot whose production request date is May 9, the earliest production start date of the product 3 lot with the lowest error rate is set earliest, and the earliest production start date of the product 4 lot with the highest error rate is the earliest. It will be set later.

  In short, when a production plan is drawn up by the production plan module 14, priority is given to reducing the risk of shortage, and the priority is set higher in the order of product lots with higher error rates and production is advanced. When determining the start date, in order to reduce the risk of defective inventory, the start date is set later for product lots with a higher error rate.

Note that the deadline in Table 3 is set to be shorter than the deadlines in Tables 1 and 2, assuming that the demand falls downward and the actual deadline is corrected according to the plan error rate. This is because it adds.
For example, the actual deadline of product 1 is 10 days, but by dividing this by (1 + error rate of product 1: 0.2), the deadline of 8 days is derived.

  This supply chain evaluation system 10 is a mechanism that transmits error information of the sales plan set by the in-house sales department as described above to the management department, factory department, and procurement department, so there is uncertainty in demand. This makes it possible to perform a more realistic SCM simulation that incorporates.

In addition, the production planning module 14 can formulate a production plan that avoids the occurrence of missing parts and defective inventory by using the error information transmitted from the management department 39. The effectiveness of the production plan that hedges the risk and the risk of defective inventory) can be verified in advance.
Moreover, the error information transmitted from the management department 39 is not the error information set by the sales department 38, but is adjusted by the management department 39 based on the past simulation results. It is possible to make a preliminary assessment of the appropriateness of judgment and economic effects.

Furthermore, when the procurement department 41 conducts transactions with the sales department 45 of other companies, this error information is presented to the other party, and transaction conditions are set according to the error rate, resulting in uncertainty in demand. It is also possible to verify the effectiveness of trading rules that share risk.
In addition, the procurement department 41 does not present the error information transmitted from the sales department 45 as it is, but can adjust the error rate based on past simulation results, so the procurement department 41 has certain authority. It is possible to evaluate in advance the economic effects of such cases.

It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the supply chain evaluation system which concerns on this invention. It is a block diagram which shows an example of a supply chain model. It is a block diagram explaining the mechanism of demand forecast planning. It is a block diagram explaining the structure of a sales plan planning. It is a block diagram explaining the mechanism of shipping plan planning. It is a block diagram explaining the structure of production planning. It is a block diagram explaining the structure of a procurement plan drafting. It is a block diagram explaining the mechanism of price determination. It is a block diagram explaining the mechanism of learning in a management department. It is a block diagram explaining the mechanism of learning in a procurement department. It is a flowchart explaining the transaction rule concluded between the buyer's procurement department and the seller's sales department. It is a graph which shows the specific example of a production plan planning process.

Explanation of symbols

10 Supply chain evaluation system
12 Simulation execution part
13 Demand forecast module
14 Production planning module
16 Result display processing section
17 Model database
18 Performance database
19 Results database
20 Input device
21 display
30 Supply chain model
31 Wholesalers
32 Manufacturer
33 Raw material suppliers
34 Wholesaler sales department
35 Wholesaler's procurement department
36 Wholesaler's warehouse department
37 Logistics department of wholesalers
38 Manufacturer's sales department
39 Manufacturer's management department
40 Manufacturer's factory department
41 Procurement department
42 Logistics department
43 First warehouse department
44 Second warehouse department
45 Sales department of raw material supplier
46 Warehouse department of raw material supplier
47 Logistics department of raw material supplier
50 Past performance data
51 Result data from past simulations
52 Demand forecast information
53 Error information of demand forecast information
54 Procurement plan information
55 Error information of procurement plan information
56 Sales plan adjustment rate information
57 Sales plan information
58 Error information of sales plan information
59 First safety factor information
60 Underwriting rate information for factory department
61 Shipping plan information
62 Error information of shipping plan information
63 Production plan information
64 Raw material inventory information
65 Raw material requirement information
66 Second safety factor information
67 Purchase Ratio Information by Sales Department of Other Companies
68 Additional unit price information to sales departments of other companies when order quantity exceeds plan
69 Compensation unit price information to sales department of other companies when order quantity is less than planned
70 Compensation unit price information when another company's sales department could not deliver due to a shortage
71 Procurement plan information
72 Procurement plan information error information
73 Basic price information
74 Volume discount elasticity coefficient information
75 Elasticity coefficient information of risk premium
76 Pricing Information
77 Order information
78 Current inventory information
79 Adjustment sensitivity change information for learning
80 Payment penalty information for each sales department
81 Received penalty information by sales department
82 Price information by sales department

Claims (16)

Information that defines the structure, functions, and interrelationships of multiple sales entities is set in the model database, and a predetermined supply chain model is reproduced on the computer based on these setting information. In the supply chain evaluation system that registers the execution result of the simulation generated by operating according to the conditions set in the model database in the result database,
Means for generating demand forecast information of a specific product based on sales result information in at least a past simulation and registering it as demand forecast information of a first sales entity in the result database;
A means for generating error information related to the demand prediction information based on the difference between the demand prediction information and the sales performance information in the past simulation, and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating sales plan information of the product based on the demand forecast information and registering it in the result database as sales plan information of the first sales entity;
Means for generating error information related to the sales plan based on error information related to the demand forecast information, and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating procurement plan information for the product based on the sales plan information and registering the result in the result database as procurement plan information for the second sales entity of the first sales entity;
Means for generating error information relating to the procurement plan based on error information relating to the sales plan information and storing the error information in the result database;
Means for generating demand forecast information of the product based on sales performance information in the past simulation or procurement plan information from the first sales entity and registering it in the result database as demand forecast information of the second sales entity When,
Based on the difference between the demand forecast information and the sales performance information in the past simulation or the error information concerning the procurement plan of the first sales entity, the error information concerning the demand forecast information is generated and registered in the result database. Means,
Means for generating sales plan information of the product based on the demand forecast information and registering it in the result database as sales plan information of a second sales entity;
Means for generating error information related to the sales plan based on error information related to the demand forecast information, and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating shipping plan information of the product based on the sales plan information and registering it in the result database as shipping plan information of a second sales entity;
New error information is generated by applying the first safety factor related to the second sales entity set in the model database to the error information related to the sales plan information, and is associated with the shipment plan information. Means for registering in the result database;
Means for generating production plan information of the product based on the shipping plan information and its error information, and registering it in the result database as production plan information of a second sales entity;
Based on the production plan information, the raw material requirement information set in the model database, and the raw material inventory information stored in the result database, the procurement plan information of the product is generated, and the second sales entity Means for registering in the result database as procurement plan information for 3 sales entities;
New error information is generated by applying the second safety factor related to the second sales entity set in the model database to the error information related to the sales plan information, and is associated with the procurement plan information. Means for storing in the result database;
Supply chain evaluation system characterized by having   After a predetermined simulation period, procurement plan information and error information from the first business entity for the second business entity accumulated in the result database, and an order from the first business entity to the second business entity 2. The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 1, further comprising means for comparing the performance information and adjusting a first safety factor related to the second sales entity set in the model database. To adjust the price according to the basic price information of the specific product from the above model database, the elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the second sales entity for adjusting the price according to the order quantity, and the size of the error The elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the second sales entity is read out, and the procurement plan information related to the first sales entity read out from the result database and the error information thereof are applied to the information to determine the price of the product. Means to determine,
Means for registering the price in the result database as a price for the first business entity by the second business entity;
The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 1 or 2, further comprising: To adjust the price according to the basic price information of the specified raw material from the above model database, the elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the third sales entity for adjusting the price according to the amount of the order, and the size of the error The elasticity premium coefficient coefficient information related to the third sales entity is read out, and the procurement plan information related to the second sales entity read out from the result database and the error information thereof are applied to the information to determine the price of the raw material. Means to determine,
Means for registering the price in the result database as a price for the second business entity by the third business entity;
The supply chain evaluation system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising:   The execution result information of the simulation accumulated in the result database is compared with the procurement plan information and error information of the first sales entity, and the ordering record from the first sales entity to the second sales entity shows the procurement plan. If the amount obtained by applying the error information to the information is not reached, information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is paid from the first sales entity to the second sales entity is registered in the result database, and the first When the ordering record from the sales entity to the second sales entity exceeds the amount of error plan applied to the procurement plan information, the first sales entity pays a predetermined compensation amount to the second sales entity. In the case where there is a shortage within the range in which error information is applied to the procurement plan information presented from the first sales entity to the second sales entity, the information indicating that is registered in the result database. First 5. The supply chain according to claim 1, further comprising means for registering, in the result database, information indicating that the second sales entity pays a predetermined compensation amount to the sales entity. Evaluation system.   The execution result information of the simulation accumulated in the result database is compared with the procurement plan information and error information of the second sales entity, and the ordering record from the second sales entity to the third sales entity shows the procurement plan. If the amount obtained by applying the error information to the information has not been reached, information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is to be paid from the second sales entity to the third sales entity is registered in the result database, and the second database When the ordering record from the sales entity to the third sales entity exceeds the amount of error plan applied to the procurement plan information, the second sales entity pays a predetermined compensation amount to the third sales entity. In the case where there is a shortage within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented from the second sales entity to the third sales entity, First 6. The supply chain according to claim 1, further comprising means for registering, in the result database, information indicating that the third sales entity pays a predetermined compensation amount to the sales entity. Evaluation system.   Compare the payment compensation amount for the third sales entity by the second sales entity accumulated in the result database with the compensation amount received from the third sales entity for the second sales entity, and set in the model database 7. The supply chain evaluation system according to claim 6, further comprising means for adjusting a second safety factor relating to the second sales entity.   When generating production plan information based on the above shipping plan information and its error information, if it is necessary to plan the production of multiple products on the same day, high priority is set for each product lot in descending order of error rate. The supply chain according to any one of claims 1 to 7, further comprising means for setting a production start date late in order of increasing error rate when each product lot can be produced in advance. Evaluation system. Means for reproducing a predetermined supply chain model based on information defining the configuration and functions of a plurality of sales entities set in the model database, and the mutual relationship, and each sales entity is preset in the model database. In the supply chain evaluation program that functions as a means for registering the execution result of the simulation generated by operating according to the specified condition in the result database,
Further, means for generating demand forecast information of a specific product based on sales performance information in at least past simulations and registering the computer in the result database as demand forecast information of the first sales entity,
Means for generating error information related to the demand prediction information based on the difference between the demand prediction information and the sales performance information in the past simulation, and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating sales plan information of the product based on the demand forecast information and registering it in the result database as sales plan information of the first sales entity;
Means for generating error information related to the sales plan based on error information related to the demand forecast information, and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating procurement plan information of the product on the basis of the sales plan information and registering it in the result database as procurement plan information of the first sales entity for the second sales entity;
Means for generating error information related to the procurement plan based on the error information related to the sales plan and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating demand forecast information of the product based on sales performance information in the past simulation or procurement plan information from the first sales entity and registering it in the result database as demand forecast information of the second sales entity ,
Based on the difference between the demand forecast information and the sales performance information in the past simulation or the error information concerning the procurement plan of the first sales entity, the error information concerning the demand forecast information is generated and registered in the result database. means,
Means for generating sales plan information of the product based on the demand forecast information and registering it in the result database as sales plan information of a second sales entity;
Means for generating error information related to the sales plan based on error information related to the demand forecast information, and registering it in the result database;
Means for generating shipping plan information of the product based on the sales plan information and registering it in the result database as shipping plan information of a second sales entity;
New error information is generated by applying the first safety factor related to the second sales entity set in the model database to the error information related to the sales plan information, and is associated with the shipment plan information. Means for registering in the result database;
Means for generating production plan information of the product based on the shipping plan information and its error information, and registering it in the result database as production plan information of a second sales entity;
Based on the production plan information, the raw material requirement information set in the model database, and the raw material inventory information stored in the result database, the procurement plan information of the product is generated, and the second sales entity Means for registering in the above result database as procurement plan information for 3 sales entities;
New error information is generated by applying the second safety factor related to the second sales entity set in the model database to the error information related to the sales plan information, and is associated with the procurement plan information. Means for storing in the result database;
Supply chain evaluation program characterized by functioning as   After a predetermined simulation period has passed, the computer stores procurement plan information and error information from the first sales entity for the second sales entity stored in the result database, and the first sales entity for the second sales entity. 10. The supply chain evaluation according to claim 9, wherein the supply chain evaluation is made to function as a means for adjusting the first safety factor related to the second sales entity set in the model database by comparing with ordering result information from program. The computer determines the basic price information of the specific product from the model database, the volume discount elasticity coefficient information for the second sales entity for adjusting the price according to the order quantity, and the price according to the size of the error. Read the elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the second sales entity for adjustment, and apply the procurement plan information and error information related to the first sales entity read from the result database to the product Means of determining the price of
Means for registering the price in the result database as a price for the first business entity by the second business entity;
The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 9 or 10, wherein The computer determines the basic price information of the specified raw material from the model database, the elasticity coefficient information of the volume discount related to the third sales entity for adjusting the price according to the order quantity, and the price according to the size of the error. By reading the elasticity coefficient information of the risk premium related to the third sales entity for adjustment, and applying the procurement plan information and error information relating to the second sales entity read out from the result database to the raw material, Means of determining the price of
Means for registering the price in the result database as a price for the second business entity by the third business entity;
The supply chain evaluation program according to any one of claims 9 to 11, wherein the supply chain evaluation program is functioned as:   The computer compares the simulation execution result information stored in the result database with the procurement plan information and error information of the first sales entity, and the ordering record from the first sales entity to the second sales entity is obtained. When the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information has not been reached, information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is paid from the first sales entity to the second sales entity is registered in the result database, If the ordering record from the first business entity to the second business entity exceeds the amount of error plan applied to the procurement plan information, the first business entity will give a predetermined compensation to the second business entity. Information indicating that the amount is to be paid is registered in the result database, and a shortage has occurred within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented from the first sales entity to the second sales entity. 13. The method of claim 9, wherein information indicating that the second sales entity pays a predetermined compensation amount to the first sales entity is registered as means for registering in the result database. Supply chain evaluation program described in any one of the above.   The computer compares the execution result information of the simulation stored in the result database with the procurement plan information and error information of the second sales entity, and the ordering record from the second sales entity to the third sales entity is obtained. When the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information has not been reached, information indicating that a predetermined compensation amount is paid from the second sales entity to the third sales entity is registered in the result database, If the ordering record from the second business entity to the third business entity exceeds the amount of error plan applied to the procurement plan information, the second business entity will give a predetermined compensation to the third business entity. Information indicating that the amount is to be paid is registered in the result database, and there is a shortage within the amount of error information applied to the procurement plan information presented from the second sales entity to the third sales entity. 14. The method according to claim 9, further comprising causing the second sales entity to function as means for registering information indicating that the third sales entity pays a predetermined compensation amount in the result database. Supply chain evaluation program described in any one of the above.   The computer compares the payment compensation amount for the third business entity by the second business entity stored in the result database with the compensation amount received from the third business entity for the second business entity, and the model 15. The supply chain evaluation program according to claim 14, wherein the supply chain evaluation program is caused to function as a means for adjusting a second safety factor relating to a second business entity set in the database. When the computer generates production plan information based on the shipping plan information and its error information, when it is necessary to plan the production of multiple products on the same day, each product lot is given priority in descending order of error rate. 16. The method according to any one of claims 9 to 15, wherein when the production of each product lot is possible, it is made to function as a means for setting the production start date late in order of increasing error rate. Supply chain evaluation program.

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