CN109784806A - Supply chain control method, system and storage medium - Google Patents

Supply chain control method, system and storage medium Download PDF

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Publication number
CN109784806A
CN109784806A CN201811609450.5A CN201811609450A CN109784806A CN 109784806 A CN109784806 A CN 109784806A CN 201811609450 A CN201811609450 A CN 201811609450A CN 109784806 A CN109784806 A CN 109784806A
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source data
supplier
information
inventory
model
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CN109784806B (en
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曹丽霄
曹珂
陆小兵
秦伟林
张云
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Beijing Spaceflight Intelligent Technology Development Co Ltd
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Beijing Spaceflight Intelligent Technology Development Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of supply chain control method, system and storage mediums, and wherein method includes: to obtain sales forecast data using Sale Forecasting Model and based on sale source data information;Supplier's comprehensive score information is obtained using supplier's assessment models and based on supplier's source data information;Conducive to purchasing forecast model and based on buying source data information, sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result;Finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result are obtained using inventory control model and based on inventory's source data information, purchasing forecast result, sale source data information;Supply chain control method, system and storage medium of the invention, can promote supply chain overall operation efficiency, can have directly directiveness to finished product and raw materials inventory control;The probability that other links are abnormal, and timely early warning can be predicted after some is abnormal event, reduce supply chain operating cost, the operational efficiency of General Promotion enterprise.

Description

Supply chain control method, system and storage medium
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of computer technology more particularly to a kind of supply chain control methods, system and storage medium.
Background technique
The users such as supply chain system Facing to Manufacturing quotient, supplier, dealer, retailer, logistics company, terminal user, from The links such as sale, buying, supplier, inventory, logistics realize the full chain management of the manufacturing side to consumption terminal, optimize corporate resources Configuration promotes the efficient collaboration of industrial chain upstream and downstream.Current supply chain management depends on ERP system, to sales data, Procurement data, inventory data and creation data are managed, and are substantially able to satisfy the day-to-day operations demand of enterprise.But for Large-scale production enterprise, traditional business management software such as ERP system is in Supply Chain Planner formulation, supplier management and inventory's week Rate of rotation raising etc. has following weakness: under traditional pushing-type production model, production plan is mainly upper 1 year according to enterprise The production scale of degree and the business indicator of current year enterprise are formulated, and experience professional more abundant are depended on, without big The data analysis of amount is as support;With the transformation of market development and production method, " pushing-type+pull-type " becomes supply chain mainstream mould Formula, sales forecast becomes the core of plan, but the business management softwares such as traditional ERP are unable to satisfy and change demand etc..
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the invention solves a technical problem be to provide a kind of supply chain control method, system and Storage medium.
According to an aspect of the present invention, a kind of supply chain control method is provided, comprising: sale source data information is obtained, Sales forecast data are obtained using Sale Forecasting Model and based on the sale source data information;Obtain supplier's source data letter Breath obtains supplier's comprehensive score information using supplier's assessment models and based on supplier's source data information;It is adopted Purchase source data information, be conducive to purchasing forecast model and based on the buying source data information, the sales forecast data and Supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result;Inventory's source data information is obtained, simultaneously using inventory control model Finished product and raw material store are obtained based on inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information Deposit prediction result.
Optionally, described to obtain sales forecast data using Sale Forecasting Model and based on the sale source data information It include: to obtain historical sales specified number evidence, and establish historical sales volume data sequence;It will be in the historical sales volume data sequence Historical sales specified number obtains cumulative data sequence and establishes linear first-order differential side based on this cumulative data sequence according to adding up Journey;Sliding-model control is carried out to the linear first-order differential equation, and parameter vector is obtained using least square method;Based on described Linear first-order differential equation and the parameter vector construct to obtain grey forecasting model, as the Sale Forecasting Model;It is based on The confidence interval of one-variable linear regression prediction model estimation sales volume;Using confidence interval and according to the grey forecasting model into Row prediction, obtains the sales forecast data.
Optionally, acquisition supplier source data information using supplier's assessment models and is based on the supplier source The comprehensive score information that data information obtains supplier comprises determining that vendors' evaluating index;It establishes and the evaluation index Corresponding evaluate collection, and determine according to the evaluation index and the evaluate collection subordinated-degree matrix of the evaluation index;It is logical It crosses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and determines the weighted value of each evaluation index based on supplier's source data information, be subordinate to according to described It spends matrix and the weighted value generates the judge vector of supplier;Synthesis is calculated according to evaluate collection described in the judge vector sum to comment Valence index determines the comprehensive score of the supplier based on the comprehensive evaluation index and the evaluate collection;Wherein, institute's commentary Valence index includes: price factor, service ability, delivery cycle, supply of material progress, research and development ability, qualitative factor.
Optionally, described to be conducive to purchasing forecast model and be based on the buying source data information, the sales forecast number Accordingly and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result includes: based on buying source historical data information, sale Historical data, supplier's history comprehensive score information and corresponding buying historical information generate training sample;Use deep learning Method is simultaneously trained preset deep learning model based on the training sample, obtains supplier's assessment models;It will be described Preset deep learning model modification is supplier's assessment models, by by the buying source data information, the sale Supplier's assessment models described in volume prediction data and supplier's comprehensive score information input, obtain the purchasing forecast knot Fruit;Wherein, the buying source data information includes: BOM data, the scrappage of product, practical production capacity, physical holding of stock information, supplies Answer period, contract information, product supply progress;The purchasing forecast result includes: buying executive mode, buying hour, supply Quotient's information.
Optionally, it is described using inventory control model and based on inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast result, The sale source data information obtains finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result includes: to obtain inventory's source data, sale, buying Historical data, and obtain storehouse storage space information and finished product and raw materials inventory historical information;By the historical data, described Storehouse storage space information, the finished product and raw materials inventory historical information are instructed as training data using machine learning algorithm Get neural network model;Inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information is defeated Enter to trained neural network model, exports the finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result;Wherein, inventory's source data It include: on-hand inventory, delivery cycle, in way order, production cycle, consumption of raw materials information;The finished product and raw materials inventory are pre- Surveying result includes: finished product and raw materials inventory information, the plan of replenishing.
Optionally, using bayesian algorithm, abnormal and other source datas is occurred according to source data and the item between exception occur Part probability Estimation and prior probability training Bayes classifier;When determining that source data occurs abnormal, pass through what is obtained after training Bayes classifier carries out risk profile to there is abnormal source data, and other abnormal source datas occurs in prediction;Based on described Abnormal other source datas acquisition occur correspondingly prevents risk program.Wherein, the source data includes: sale source data, adopts Purchase source data, supplier's source data, inventory's source data.
According to another aspect of the present invention, a kind of supply chain control system is provided, comprising: sales forecast control module is used Source data information is sold in obtaining, obtains sales forecast number using Sale Forecasting Model and based on the sale source data information According to;Supplier's evaluation module using supplier's assessment models and is based on the supplier for obtaining supplier's source data information Source data information obtains supplier's comprehensive score information;Purchasing forecast module is conducive to buying for obtaining buying source data information Prediction model is simultaneously based on the buying source data information, the sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information Obtain purchasing forecast result;Inventory management module using inventory control model and is based on institute for obtaining inventory's source data information It states inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information and obtains finished product and raw materials inventory prediction As a result.
Optionally, the sales forecast control module for obtaining historical sales specified number evidence, and establishes historical sales specified number According to sequence;By the historical sales specified number in the historical sales volume data sequence according to adding up, cumulative data sequence is obtained simultaneously Linear first-order differential equation is established based on this cumulative data sequence;Sliding-model control is carried out to the linear first-order differential equation, And parameter vector is obtained using least square method;It constructs to obtain ash based on the linear first-order differential equation and the parameter vector Color prediction model, as the Sale Forecasting Model;Confidence interval based on one-variable linear regression prediction model estimation sales volume; It is predicted using confidence interval and according to the grey forecasting model, obtains the sales forecast data.
Optionally, supplier's evaluation module, for determining vendors' evaluating index;It establishes and the evaluation index Corresponding evaluate collection, and determine according to the evaluation index and the evaluate collection subordinated-degree matrix of the evaluation index;It is logical It crosses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and determines the weighted value of each evaluation index based on supplier's source data information, be subordinate to according to described It spends matrix and the weighted value generates the judge vector of supplier;Synthesis is calculated according to evaluate collection described in the judge vector sum to comment Valence index determines the comprehensive score of the supplier based on the comprehensive evaluation index and the evaluate collection;Wherein, institute's commentary Valence index includes: price factor, service ability, delivery cycle, supply of material progress, research and development ability, qualitative factor.
Optionally, the purchasing forecast module, for based on buying source historical data information, sales histories data, supply Quotient's history comprehensive score information and corresponding buying historical information generate training sample;Using deep learning method and based on described Training sample is trained preset deep learning model, obtains supplier's assessment models;By the preset deep learning Model modification is supplier's assessment models, by by the buying source data information, the sales forecast data and institute Supplier's assessment models described in supplier's comprehensive score information input are stated, the purchasing forecast result is obtained;Wherein, the buying Source data information include: BOM data, the scrappage of product, practical production capacity, physical holding of stock information, supply cycle, contract information, Product supply progress;The purchasing forecast result includes: buying executive mode, buying hour, supplier information.
Optionally, the inventory management module for obtaining the historical data of inventory's source data, sale, buying, and obtains Storehouse storage space information and finished product and raw materials inventory historical information;The historical data, the storehouse memory space are believed Breath, the finished product and raw materials inventory historical information obtain neural network as training data, using machine learning algorithm training Model;Inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information are input to trained mind Through network model, the finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result are exported;Wherein, inventory's source data include: on-hand inventory, Delivery cycle, in way order, production cycle, consumption of raw materials information;The finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result include: finished product With raw materials inventory information, the plan of replenishing.
Optionally, there is exception and other according to source data for using bayesian algorithm in supply chain dynamic optimization module There is the estimation of the conditional probability between exception and prior probability training Bayes classifier in source data;When determine source data occur it is different Chang Shi carries out risk profile to there is abnormal source data by the Bayes classifier obtained after training, and prediction occurs abnormal Other source datas;Risk program is correspondingly prevented based on other source datas acquisition for exception occur.Wherein, the source number According to include: sale source data, buying source data, supplier's source data, inventory's source data.
According to another aspect of the invention, a kind of supply chain control system is provided, comprising: memory;And it is coupled to institute The processor of memory is stated, the processor is configured to the instruction based on storage in the memory, executes as described above Method.
In accordance with a further aspect of the present invention, a kind of computer readable storage medium is provided, computer program is stored thereon with The step of instruction, which realizes method as described above when being executed by one or more processors.
Supply chain control method, system and storage medium of the invention introduces under the mode of traditional SCM The technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning, it is each from requirement forecasting, plan, supplier management and stock control etc. Link proposes algorithm model, and correlation to each member and relevance impact analysis provide dynamic optimization algorithm model, is promoted Supply chain overall operation efficiency can have directly directiveness to finished product and raw materials inventory control;Go out from system engineering angle Hair considers the correlation in supply chain between each link, and it is different can to predict that other links occur after some is abnormal event Normal probability, and timely early warning reduce supply chain operating cost;The launch period can be shortened, the fortune of General Promotion enterprise Line efficiency.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this Some embodiments of invention without any creative labor, may be used also for those of ordinary skill in the art To obtain other drawings based on these drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention;
Fig. 2A is each schematic diagram using link relevance of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention;
Fig. 2 B is the process signal predicted sales volume of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention Figure;
Fig. 3 A is the process signal evaluated supplier of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention Figure;
Fig. 3 B is that supplier selects appraisement system schematic diagram;
Fig. 3 C is the schematic diagram of analytic hierarchy process (AHP);
Fig. 4 is the flow diagram predicted buying of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention;
Fig. 5 is the flow diagram predicted inventory of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention;
Fig. 6 is the flow diagram of the progress dynamic optimization of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention;
Fig. 7 is the composition schematic diagram of one embodiment of supply chain control system of the invention;
Fig. 8 is the composition schematic diagram of another embodiment of supply chain control system of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Carry out the various exemplary embodiments of detailed description of the present invention now with reference to attached drawing.It should also be noted that unless in addition having Body explanation, the unlimited system of component and the positioned opposite of step, numerical expression and the numerical value otherwise illustrated in these embodiments is originally The range of invention.
Simultaneously, it should be appreciated that for ease of description, the size of various pieces shown in attached drawing is not according to reality Proportionate relationship draw.
Be to the description only actually of at least one exemplary embodiment below it is illustrative, never as to the present invention And its application or any restrictions used.
Technology, method and apparatus known to person of ordinary skill in the relevant may be not discussed in detail, but suitable In the case of, technology, method and apparatus should be considered as part of specification.
It should also be noted that similar label and letter indicate similar terms in following attached drawing, therefore, once a certain Xiang Yi It is defined in a attached drawing, then in subsequent attached drawing does not need that it is further discussed.
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention, as shown in Figure 1:
Step 101, sale source data information is obtained, is sold using Sale Forecasting Model and based on sale source data information Sell volume prediction data.Sale source data may include trade order, behavioral data, historical data, marketing strategy, user's portrait Deng, sales forecast data can for per year, season, the sales volume that the moon is unit prediction.
Step 102, supplier's source data information is obtained, using supplier's assessment models and is based on supplier's source data information Obtain supplier's comprehensive score information.Supplier's source data information may include evaluation information, information on services, progress msg, valence Lattice, delivery cycle etc..
Step 103, buying source data information is obtained, is conducive to purchasing forecast model and based on buying source data information, sale Volume prediction data and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result.Purchasing source data can believe for contract, inventory Breath, delivery cycle etc..Purchasing forecast result can be procurement value, material variety, procurement method etc..
Step 104, inventory's source data information is obtained, using inventory control model and based on inventory's source data information, buying Prediction result, sale source data information obtain finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result.Inventory's source data information may include existing In stock, delivery cycle, in way order numbers, monthly quantity consumed, production cycle etc..Finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result packet Include Replenishment Policy, inventory planning etc..
In one embodiment, plan is that supply chain controls most important link, affects the resource of each link of supply chain Configuration, is the primary factor of supply chain optimization.Supply Chain Planner includes marketing plan, production plan, supply and demand plan and buying meter Draw etc., under the new supply chain mode of " pushing-type+pull-type ", marketing plan is the planned source of institute, and is planned dependent on pre- It surveys.Supply chain control method of the invention can carry out accurately sales forecast by gray level model, in conjunction with each data source etc. Procurement plan is formulated, realizes that resource is made rational planning for.
, supplier huge for large enterprise's Supplier Number, which selects to lack effective data, and information supports etc. asks Topic, supply chain control method of the invention are capable of providing flexibly configurable supplier's assessment models, are classified to supplier Effective management of classification improves the preferred efficiency of supplier, copes with the bursting problem of supply network.Supply chain controlling party of the invention Method considers that the correlation in supply chain between member, and some basic member are abnormal thing from system engineering angle After part, the probability that other members are abnormal, and timely early warning, reduce supply chain operating cost.
As shown in Figure 2 A, supply chain control method of the invention for large enterprise supply chain be marketing orientation, buying, Supplier, inventory, each member of logistics respectively propose to calculate from prediction, plan, supplier's assessment, stock control etc. using link Method model, and correlation to each member and relevance impact analysis provide dynamic optimization algorithm model, and it is whole to promote supply chain Operational efficiency.
Prediction class model is divided into Sale Forecasting Model and purchasing forecast model, supports to the efficient integrated of multi-source heterogeneous data With processing.A variety of data acquisition modes such as supporting industry terminal, batch, streaming, log, support Various types of data ETL (extract, Conversion, load) process, support multiple-task scheduling mode, to meet different data processing needs, and can be according to enterprise Demand Quick Extended.
Gray zone Sale Forecasting Model is established in sales forecast for product, will affect sale factor (such as time because Element) it is included in gray system, it handles sales volume as ash colo(u)r specification and brings into prediction model and make inferences and prove, and from just Really it is worth real-time big data analysis system and the realization of supply chain related tool that inclusive and section radius angle verifies the model Technical solution validity.
The gray zone sales forecast of interval number form be can use as a result, considering in actual scene due to different shaped The scrappage of number product is different, and same material makes for the loss difference in the consumption error or production of product type not of the same race With the improvement BOM data structure of range format, and by sales forecast be converted into purchasing forecast process Real-time inventory restraint condition, Practical capacity constraints, remaining capacity constraints, plan production capacity, occupation of capital limitation are converted into the constraint condition with interval number, thus Sales forecast is changed into interval number optimization problem to the association conversion process of purchasing forecast.
By the angle from section possibility degree and inverted constraint, the optimization to the uncertain transmitting of interval number is realized, and pass through Predict that the angle of stability and forecasting accuracy verifies conversion of the section sales forecast to purchasing forecast.It is finally excellent by not knowing On the basis of the gray zone interaction prediction of change, using fiducial inference method, requirement forecasting situation and demand history are comprehensively considered Information is recorded, the method for inventory control under the demand input condition of section is used.Supply chain control method of the invention, utilizes association Prediction result verifies the effective of the method for inventory control, and then verifies from sales forecast to purchasing forecast, arrives storage controlling again The validity and feasibility of interaction prediction model.
In one embodiment, sales forecast data are obtained using Sale Forecasting Model and based on sale source data information It can be there are many method.Fig. 2 B is the stream predicted sales volume of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention Journey schematic diagram, as shown in Figure 2 B:
Step 201, historical sales specified number evidence is obtained, and establishes historical sales volume data sequence.
Step 202, the historical sales specified number in historical sales volume data sequence is obtained into cumulative data sequence according to adding up It arranges and is based on this cumulative data sequence and establish linear first-order differential equation.
Step 203, to linear first-order differential equation carry out sliding-model control, and using least square method obtain parameter to Amount.
Step 204, it constructs to obtain grey forecasting model based on linear first-order differential equation and parameter vector, it is pre- as sale Survey model.
Step 205, the confidence interval based on one-variable linear regression prediction model estimation sales volume, by combining unitary linear Regressive prediction model and grey forecasting model are combined prediction, obtain sales forecast data.It is pre- in conjunction with one-variable linear regression Surveying model and being combined prediction with grey forecasting model can be existing a variety of methods.
Sale Forecasting Model can be using multiple linear regression model, G (1, N) gray model, three kinds of BP neural network calculations Method model.After three prediction model training terminate, system can check training result mean square error (MSE) automatically, work as MSE It is worth smaller, then prediction model accuracy is higher, and prediction effect is better, recommends optimal algorithm automatically.
For example, Sale Forecasting Model uses grey forecasting model.Gray prediction is a kind of The method that system is predicted.Gray prediction is associated point by the different degree of development trend between identification system factor Analysis, and generation processing is carried out to initial data and carrys out the rule that searching system changes, the data sequence for having stronger regularity is generated, so After establish corresponding Differential Equation Model, to predict the situation of things future developing trend.It is observed anti-with even time interval It should predict a series of quantitative values construction grey forecasting model of characteristics of objects, the characteristic quantity at the prediction following a certain moment, or reach The time of a certain characteristic quantity.One-variable linear regression prediction refers to that the scatter plot of two pairs of variable datas shows trends of straight line When, using least square method, find empirical equation between the two, i.e. one-variable linear regression prediction model.According to independent variable Variation, to estimate the prediction technique of dependent variable variation.
Requirement to data source can be reduced using Grey System Model algorithm, and realized on the basis of precision of prediction Quantization to fluctuating error range.In enterprise, it can be used for the data source of sales forecast typically from historical form or ERP Historical data, data source property is more single, and the purchase quantity of certain high value materials, the frequency are often very low, causes data volume Deficient, data modeling difficulty awkward situation.Therefore, to manufacturing enterprise sales forecast and purchasing forecast in, using gray scale system Model of uniting is a kind of optimal selection.
Using time series buying historical data as single argument, GM (1,1) model is established based on Grey Prediction Algorithm.GM(1, 1) model really goes matched curve to obtain predicted value to the end with univariate differential equation of first order.One is established based on interval estimation First linear regression curves prediction model, the result obtained based on one-variable linear regression curve prediction model are set as confidence interval; Foundation obtains the combination forecasting method that gray model is combined with one-variable linear regression, carries out significance test, if received, Obtain the confidence interval under Interval Grey interval prediction model.
In one embodiment, supplier's source data information is obtained, using supplier's assessment models and is based on supplier source The comprehensive score information that data information obtains supplier can be there are many method.Fig. 3 A is supply chain control method of the invention The flow diagram that supplier is evaluated of one embodiment, as shown in Figure 3A:
Step 301, vendors' evaluating index is determined.Evaluation index can be there are many index.
Step 302, evaluate collection corresponding with evaluation index is established, and determines that evaluation refers to according to evaluation index and evaluate collection Target subordinated-degree matrix.
Step 303, the weighted value of each evaluation index, root are determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and based on supplier's source data information The judge vector of supplier is generated according to subordinated-degree matrix and weighted value.
Step 304, according to vector sum evaluate collection calculating comprehensive evaluation index is judged, comprehensive evaluation index and evaluation are based on Collect the comprehensive score for determining supplier;Wherein, evaluation index include: price factor, service ability, delivery cycle, supply of material progress, Research and development ability, qualitative factor etc..
Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), abbreviation AHP refer to element related with decision resolving into the levels such as target, criterion, scheme, The decision-making technique of qualitative and quantitative analysis is carried out on basis herein.Supplier's assessment is carried out to first have to determine evaluation index body System.The principle for constructing parameter system is as follows: most simple property: i.e. in the case where being able to satisfy assessment requirement and given demand substantially, to the greatest extent Amount is assessed with less key index.Measurability: i.e. selection is easy the index quantitatively calculated and is easy accurately really as far as possible Fixed key index, it is subjective random to reduce.Objectivity: i.e. each index can more accurately reflect the items of evaluated system Energy, feature and property.Completeness: i.e. each index more should be able to comprehensively reflect the full content of evaluated system.Independence: i.e. Each index in index system should be as independent as possible, reduces the degree of overlapping of index intension, in order to determine index weights.
Obtain more realistic weight.Constructing parameter system is actually to construct the set of factors U=for judging object { u1, u2 ..., um }, each factor in set of factors is from the relevant parameter that can really reflect power of suppliers.For example, If using a certain type supplier as research object, it is assumed that consider that content includes qualitative factor, price factor, production capacity, research and development Ability, service ability etc..The vendors' evaluating index system of building is as shown in 3B figure.User can be according to itself enterprises characteristics Customized vendors' evaluating index system optimizes.
After constructing vendors' evaluating index system, not yet determine each evaluation index parameter for evaluation object Influence degree.Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) aim at obtain parameter system in the bottom (solution layer) relative to top (destination layer) Weights of importance, as shown in Figure 3 C.The step of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is as follows: analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is opposite to each factor in each level Importance is judged that these judge the matrix by way of introducing suitable scale and constituting numerical value, i.e. judgment matrix.Judgement Matrix is the essential information of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and carries out the important evidence of relative Link Importance calculating.It can use existing more Kind method development of judgment matrix, Judgement Matricies have very strong subjectivity, it is therefore necessary to be carried out by the expert in industry Judgement avoids subjective judgement fault from influencing assessment result bring as far as possible.
For example, select assessment indicator system parameter system shown in figure to judge supplier, third layer parameter needle To the resulting jdgement matrix of the second layer parameter as shown in table one and following table two, the second layer parameter is commented for the first layer parameter is resulting Matrix is sentenced as shown in following table three.
Service ability The rate of complaints? Problem resolving ability?
The rate of complaints? 1 1/3
Problem resolving ability? 3 1
One judgment matrix example --- service ability of table
Two judgment matrix example --- supplier evaluation of table
Three judgment matrix example --- price factor of table
Since when practical problem solves, the judgment matrix of construction not necessarily has consistency, it is therefore desirable to carry out consistent Property examine.Consistency refer to expert in judge index importance, it is harmonious between each judgement, do not occur conflicting knot Fruit.When judgment matrix does not have crash consistency, the characteristic root corresponding to judgment matrix can also change.Therefore, can lead to The variation for crossing judgment matrix characteristic root carrys out the degree of consistency of test and judge.Coincident indicator CI is introduced as measurement judgment matrix Deviate the index of consistency, is defined as:
Wherein, λmaxFor the maximum value of judgment matrix characteristic root, n is the order of judgment matrix.The maximum feature of judgment matrix Root λmaxCalculating formula are as follows:
Wherein, (AW)iIndicate i-th of element of vector AW.CI value is bigger, shows that judgment matrix deviates crash consistency Degree is bigger;CI value is smaller, shows that the consistency of criterion matrix is better.When judgment matrix has crash consistency, CI=0. Due to the judgment matrix for different orders, the uniform error of people's judgement is different.Therefore, measuring different order judgment matrixs is It is no that there is satisfied consistency, need to introduce the Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI of judgment matrix.For 1~9 rank judgment matrix, The value of RI is listed in the following table respectively.
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RI 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45
The value table of four-RI of table
For 1,2 rank matrixes, RI is formal, because 1,2 rank judgment matrixs always have crash consistency.Work as order When greater than 2, the ratio between coincident indicator CI and same order average homogeneity index RI of judgment matrix are known as random consistency ration, note For CR.WhenWhen, that is, think that sentencing RI breaks matrix with satisfied consistency.Otherwise it just needs to adjust judgment matrix, Until there is satisfied consistency until it.It is successively successively calculated along recursive hierarchy structure, finally calculates bottom factor phase For the relative importance of top factor, i.e. total hierarchial sorting.For the decision problem of 3 levels, the 3rd layer of note to the 2nd layer, 2nd layer is respectively W to the 1st layer of weight vectors3-2And W2-1, then the 3rd layer is W to the 1st layer of weight vectors3-1=W3-2*W2-1。 Similarly, n-th layer can be acquired to the 1st layer of weight vectors.For example, the 3rd layer parameter joins the 1st layer in the parameter system shown in Several weights is as shown in table 11, and total weight vectors are [0.14,0.41,0.21,0.20,0.05].Following table is total hierarchial sorting power Weight example.
Table five-total hierarchial sorting weight table
In one embodiment, supplier is assessed in conjunction with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Step includes: building parameter system;Establish subordinated-degree matrix;Parameters weighting is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP);Determine opinion rating point It is worth vector;Calculate Comprehensis pertaining vector;Calculate comprehensive grading value.Supplier's assessment is carried out to first have to determine that evaluation refers to recommendation Mark system.
Constructing parameter system is actually to construct the set of factors U={ u1, u2 ..., u m } for judging object, in set of factors Each factor is from the relevant parameter that can really reflect power of suppliers.It establishes subordinated-degree matrix and establishes evaluation rank collection V ={ v1, u2 ..., vm } is evaluated for each factor in set of factors U={ u1, u2 ..., u m }, obtains jdgement matrix:
For example, being { excellent, good, in, poor, bad } for the evaluation rank collection that certain parameter system is established.Pass through several relevant peoples Member judges each parameter, and statistics obtains the frequency that each opinion rating occurs, as shown in following table six.
The frequency table that six-opinion rating of table occurs
Such data can be obtained from SAP system, can be for statistical analysis to relevant parameter according to big data algorithm, Objective results are directly given, chose mode by expert's subjective judgement in the past to change.
In one embodiment, be conducive to purchasing forecast model and based on buying source data information, sales forecast data with And supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result can be there are many method.Fig. 4 is supply chain controlling party of the invention The flow diagram that buying is predicted of one embodiment of method, as shown in Figure 4:
Step 401, based on buying source historical data information, sales histories data, supplier's history comprehensive score information and Corresponding buying historical information generates training sample.
Step 402, preset deep learning model is trained using deep learning method and based on training sample, is obtained Obtain supplier's assessment models.
It step 403, is supplier's assessment models by preset deep learning model modification, by the way that source data letter will be purchased Breath, sales forecast data and comprehensive score information input supplier, supplier assessment models obtain purchasing forecast result.
Purchasing source data information includes: BOM (Bill of Material, bill of materials) data, the scrappage of product, reality Border production capacity, physical holding of stock information, supply cycle, contract information, product supply progress etc.;Purchasing forecast result includes: that buying is held Line mode, buying hour, supplier information etc..
There are many deep learning models, such as deep learning model includes: convolutional neural networks CNN, DBN, circulation nerve Network RNN, autocoder, production confrontation network G AN etc..Preset deep learning model includes three layers of neuron models, Three layers of neuron models include input layer model, middle layer neuron models and output layer neuron model, every layer of mind Input of the output as next layer of neuron models through meta-model, the neuron and buying source data of input layer model Information, sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information are corresponding, the neuron of output layer neuron model and buying Prediction result is corresponding.Three layers of neuron models can be the sub-network knot of multiple neural net layers with full connection structure Structure, middle layer neuron models are full articulamentum.
In one embodiment, can according to sales forecast result etc. obtain purchasing forecast as a result, according to accurate BOM, Sales forecast is expanded to production materials procurement by practical production capacity, physical holding of stock etc..In purchasing forecast model, optimization aim is set The neat set rate for being set to sales order improves.Therefore, it needs to introduce accurate BOM data in the constraint condition of purchasing forecast model And scrappage (the production process proportion of goods damageds) setting of products of different specifications etc..
The data basis that order produces neat set rate is BOM, and BOM is formed as the material of production in purchasing forecast model In play important role, BOM is known that every kind of product when what procedure needs how many material.BOM data is enterprise The important factor of industry purchase quantity operation, and the material quantity provided based on BOM is all standard number, enterprise produces due to process The coefficient of losses of the limitation of technique and employee's level, the different materials of identical product is different, and same material is in not identical product Coefficient of losses it is also different, furthermore the data structure of BOM is complicated, and complicated BOM includes multilayer dose inventory, in every layer of bill of materials Material it is not unique, this result in sales forecast result by BOM be converted into material procurement prediction result when be doped with A large amount of unascertained informations from BOM, production and inventory, while multilayer BOM result is unfavorable for the operation of interval number.Therefore it closes Reason BOM data structure is reconstructed will directly influence the accuracy of purchasing forecast, i.e., the neat set rate that final order is completed.
In one embodiment, using inventory control model and based on inventory's source data information, purchasing forecast result, sale Source data information obtains finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result can be there are many method.Fig. 5 is that supply chain of the invention controls The flow diagram that inventory is predicted of one embodiment of method, as shown in Figure 5:
Step 501, obtain inventory's source data, the historical data of sale, buying, and obtain storehouse storage space information and at Product and raw materials inventory historical information.
Step 502, using historical data, storehouse storage space information, finished product and raw materials inventory historical information as training Data obtain neural network model using machine learning algorithm training.
Step 503, inventory's source data information, purchasing forecast result, sale source data information are input to trained mind Through network model, finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result are exported.
Inventory's source data includes: on-hand inventory, delivery cycle, in way order, production cycle, consumption of raw materials information etc.;At Product and raw materials inventory prediction result include: finished product and raw materials inventory information, the plan of replenishing etc..
Inventory control model can be for neural network model etc., and machine learning algorithm can be gone point using the rule that study obtains Analysis prediction unknown data.Using historical data, storehouse storage space information, finished product and raw materials inventory historical information as training number According to, using machine learning algorithm training obtain neural network model.By inventory's source data information, purchasing forecast result, sale source Data information is input to trained neural network model, exports finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result.Neural network model Can there are many, such as CNN, RNN, GAN etc..
Fig. 6 is the flow diagram of the progress dynamic optimization of one embodiment of supply chain control method of the invention, such as Shown in Fig. 6:
Step 601, using bayesian algorithm, abnormal and other source datas is occurred according to source data and the item between exception occur Part probability Estimation and prior probability training Bayes classifier.
Bayes classifier is bayes predictive model, i.e. supply chain dynamic optimization model.Bayes predictive model is fortune A kind of prediction carried out with Bayesian statistics.Bayesian statistics makes full use of not merely with model information and data information Prior information.By the method for proof analysis, the prediction result of bayes predictive model and common regressive prediction model is carried out Compare, the results showed that bayes predictive model has apparent superiority.
Step 602, abnormal to occurring by the Bayes classifier obtained after training when determining that source data occurs abnormal Source data carry out risk profile, there are other abnormal source datas in prediction.
Step 603, risk program is correspondingly prevented based on other source datas acquisition for exception occur.Prevent risk program can With to send alarm or provide emergency plan etc..Source data includes: sale source data, buying source data, supplier's source data, library Deposit source data etc..
Under the conditions of some certain can occur for the supply chain dynamic optimization model based on Bayes to link a certain in supply chain When part thing, the probability of happening of other links is obtained.For example, in supplier's link, since certain supplier's supply of material progress occurs Risk, can be seller's seven sale 10 days, can quickly obtain the influence to other links by bayesian algorithm.I.e. when determining supplier There is exception in supply of material progress in source data, passes through the Bayes classifier obtained after training to the supplier's source number for exception occur Supply of material progress in carries out risk profile, and the delivery cycle etc. in the abnormal buying source data of prediction appearance is likely to occur different Often, risk program is correspondingly prevented based on acquisitions such as the delivery cycles occurred in abnormal buying source data, can be supplied to send The alarm of goods cycle delay provides another supplier etc..
Use bayesian algorithm generate supply chain dynamic optimization model and prediction there are other abnormal source datas can be with Are as follows: determine the characteristic attribute (various source datas) of supply chain dynamic model;Characteristic attribute data are divided into training sample and test Template;The prior probability P (xi) and P (yi) of characteristic attribute event x and y are calculated classification;All strokes are calculated to each characteristic attribute The conditional probability divided;To calculating P of all categories (x | yi) P (yi);Using P (x | yi) P (yi) maximal term as x generic.
If x={ a1, a2..., amIt is an item to be sorted, and each a is a characteristic attribute of x.There is category set C ={ y1, y2..., yn}.Calculate P (y1| x): P (y2| x) ..., P (yn|x)。
If P (yk| x)=max { P (y1| x), P (y2| x) ..., P (yn| x) }, then x ∈ yk
Each conditional probability is calculated with the following method: finding the item set to be sorted classified known to one, this collection Conjunction is called training sample set;Statistics obtains the conditional probability estimation of each characteristic attribute under of all categories.I.e.
P(a1|y1), P (a2|y1) ..., P (am|y1);P(a1|y2), P (a2|y2) ..., P (am|y2);...;P(a1| yn), P (a2|yn) ..., P (am|yn)
If each characteristic attribute is conditional sampling, following derivation is had according to Bayes' theorem:
Because denominator is constant for all categories, as long as because molecule maximization all may be used by we.Again because of each feature Attribute is conditional sampling, so having:
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 7, the present invention provides a kind of supply chain control system 70, comprising: sales forecast Control module 71, supplier's evaluation module 72, purchasing forecast module 73, inventory management module 74 and supply chain dynamic optimization module 75.Sales forecast control module 71 obtains sale source data information, using Sale Forecasting Model and based on sale source data information Obtain sales forecast data.Supplier's evaluation module 72 obtains supplier's source data information, simultaneously using supplier's assessment models Supplier's comprehensive score information is obtained based on supplier's source data information.
Purchasing forecast module 73 obtains buying source data information, is conducive to purchasing forecast model and based on buying source data letter Breath, sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result.Inventory management module 74 obtains library Source data information is deposited, using inventory control model and based on inventory's source data information, purchasing forecast result, sale source data information Obtain finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result.
In one embodiment, sales forecast control module 71 obtains historical sales specified number evidence, and establishes historical sales volume Data sequence.Sales forecast control module 71 according to adding up, obtains the historical sales specified number in historical sales volume data sequence Linear first-order differential equation is established to cumulative data sequence and based on this cumulative data sequence.Sales forecast control module 71 is to one Rank linear differential equation carries out sliding-model control, and obtains parameter vector using least square method.Sales forecast control module 71 It constructs to obtain grey forecasting model based on linear first-order differential equation and parameter vector, as Sale Forecasting Model.Sales forecast Confidence interval of the control module 71 based on one-variable linear regression prediction model estimation sales volume.Sales forecast control module 71 uses Confidence interval is simultaneously predicted according to grey forecasting model, and sales forecast data are obtained.
Supplier's evaluation module 72 determines vendors' evaluating index.Supplier's evaluation module 72 is established and evaluation index phase Corresponding evaluate collection, and determine according to evaluation index and evaluate collection the subordinated-degree matrix of evaluation index.Supplier's evaluation module 72 The weighted value that each evaluation index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and based on supplier's source data information, according to subordinated-degree matrix and power The judge vector of weight values generation supplier.Supplier's evaluation module 72 refers to according to vector sum evaluate collection calculating overall merit is judged Number, the comprehensive score of supplier is determined based on comprehensive evaluation index and evaluate collection;Wherein, evaluation index include: price factor, Service ability, delivery cycle, supply of material progress, research and development ability, qualitative factor etc..
Purchasing forecast module 73 is based on buying source historical data information, sales histories data, supplier's history comprehensive score Information and corresponding buying historical information generate training sample.Purchasing forecast module 73 is using deep learning method and based on training Sample is trained preset deep learning model, obtains supplier's assessment models.Purchasing forecast module 73 is by preset depth Degree learning model is updated to supplier's assessment models, comprehensive by that will purchase source data information, sales forecast data and supplier It closes score information and inputs supplier's assessment models, obtain purchasing forecast result;Wherein, buying source data information includes: BOM number According to, the scrappage of product, practical production capacity, physical holding of stock information, supply cycle, contract information, product supply progress etc.;Buying is pre- Surveying result includes: buying executive mode, buying hour, supplier information etc..
Inventory management module 74 obtains inventory's source data, the historical data of sale, buying, and obtains storehouse memory space letter Breath and finished product and raw materials inventory historical information.Inventory management module 74 by historical data, storehouse storage space information, finished product and Raw materials inventory historical information obtains neural network model as training data, using machine learning algorithm training.Stock control Inventory's source data information, purchasing forecast result, sale source data information are input to trained neural network model by module 74, Export finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result;Wherein, inventory's source data include: on-hand inventory, delivery cycle, way order, Production cycle, consumption of raw materials information etc.;Finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result include: finished product and raw materials inventory information, mend Goods plan etc..
Supply chain dynamic optimization module 75 uses bayesian algorithm, abnormal and other source datas occurs according to source data and occurs Conditional probability estimation and prior probability training Bayes classifier between exception.Supply chain dynamic optimization module 75 is when the source of determination When data occur abnormal, risk profile is carried out to there is abnormal source data by the Bayes classifier obtained after training, in advance Measure existing other abnormal source datas.Supply chain dynamic optimization module 75 is obtained correspondingly based on there are other abnormal source datas Prevent risk program.Wherein, source data includes: sale source data, buying source data, supplier's source data, inventory's source data etc..
Fig. 8 is the module diagram according to another embodiment of supply chain control system disclosed by the invention.Such as Fig. 8 institute Show, which may include memory 81, processor 82, communication interface 83 and bus 84.Memory 81 for storing instruction, is located Reason device 82 is coupled to memory 81, and processor 82 is configured as realizing above-mentioned supply based on the instruction execution that memory 81 stores Chain control method.
Memory 81 can be high speed RAM memory, nonvolatile memory (NoN-volatile memory) etc., deposit Reservoir 81 is also possible to memory array.Memory 81 is also possible to by piecemeal, and block can be combined into virtually by certain rule Volume.Processor 82 can be central processor CPU or application-specific integrated circuit ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), or be arranged to implement the one or more of supply chain control method disclosed by the invention Integrated circuit.
In one embodiment, the present invention provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, and computer readable storage medium is deposited Computer instruction is contained, the supply chain control method in as above any one embodiment is realized when instruction is executed by processor.
Supply chain control method, system and storage medium provided by the above embodiment, in the mould of traditional SCM Under formula, the technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning are introduced, from requirement forecasting, plan, supplier management and inventory Each links such as management propose algorithm model, and correlation to each member and relevance impact analysis provide dynamic optimization algorithm mould Type promotes supply chain overall operation efficiency, can have directly directiveness to finished product and raw materials inventory control;From system engineering Angle is set out, and is considered the correlation in supply chain between each link, can be predicted other links after some is abnormal event The probability being abnormal, and timely early warning reduce supply chain operating cost;The launch period can be shortened, General Promotion enterprise The operational efficiency of industry.
Method and system of the invention may be achieved in many ways.For example, can by software, hardware, firmware or Software, hardware, firmware any combination realize method and system of the invention.The said sequence of the step of for method is only In order to be illustrated, the step of method of the invention, is not limited to sequence described in detail above, especially says unless otherwise It is bright.In addition, in some embodiments, also the present invention can be embodied as to record program in the recording medium, these programs include For realizing machine readable instructions according to the method for the present invention.Thus, the present invention also covers storage for executing according to this hair The recording medium of the program of bright method.
Description of the invention is given for the purpose of illustration and description, and is not exhaustively or will be of the invention It is limited to disclosed form.Many modifications and variations are obvious for the ordinary skill in the art.It selects and retouches It states embodiment and is to more preferably illustrate the principle of the present invention and practical application, and those skilled in the art is enable to manage The solution present invention is to design various embodiments suitable for specific applications with various modifications.

Claims (10)

1. a kind of supply chain control method characterized by comprising
Sale source data information is obtained, obtains sales forecast number using Sale Forecasting Model and based on sale source data information According to;
Supplier's source data information is obtained, is supplied using supplier's assessment models and based on supplier's source data information Quotient's comprehensive score information;
Buying source data information is obtained, it is conducive to purchasing forecast model and pre- based on the buying source data information, the sales volume Measured data and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result;
Inventory's source data information is obtained, using inventory control model and is based on inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast As a result, the sale source data information obtains finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result.
2. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described using Sale Forecasting Model and based on sale source number Include: according to information acquisition sales forecast data
Historical sales specified number evidence is obtained, and establishes historical sales volume data sequence;
By the historical sales specified number in the historical sales volume data sequence according to adding up, obtains cumulative data sequence and be based on This cumulative data sequence establishes linear first-order differential equation;
Sliding-model control is carried out to the linear first-order differential equation, and parameter vector is obtained using least square method;
It constructs to obtain grey forecasting model based on the linear first-order differential equation and the parameter vector, it is pre- as the sale Survey model;
It is using confidence interval and pre- according to the grey based on the confidence interval of one-variable linear regression prediction model estimation sales volume It surveys model to be predicted, obtains the sales forecast data.
3. method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that acquisition supplier source data information is commented using supplier Estimate model and the comprehensive score information for obtaining supplier based on supplier's source data information includes:
Determine vendors' evaluating index;
Evaluate collection corresponding with the evaluation index is established, and institute's commentary is determined according to the evaluation index and the evaluate collection The subordinated-degree matrix of valence index;
The weighted value that each evaluation index is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and based on supplier's source data information, according to institute It states subordinated-degree matrix and the weighted value generates the judge vector of supplier;
Comprehensive evaluation index is calculated according to evaluate collection described in the judge vector sum, based on the comprehensive evaluation index and described Evaluate collection determines the comprehensive score of the supplier;
Wherein, the evaluation index include: price factor, service ability, delivery cycle, supply of material progress, research and development ability, quality because Element.
4. method as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that described to be conducive to purchasing forecast model and be based on buying source number It is believed that breath, the sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result include:
It is gone through based on buying source historical data information, sales histories data, supplier's history comprehensive score information and corresponding buying History information generates training sample;
Preset deep learning model is trained using deep learning method and based on the training sample, obtains supplier Assessment models;
It is supplier's assessment models by the preset deep learning model modification, by believing the buying source data It ceases, supplier's assessment models described in the sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information input, described in acquisition Purchasing forecast result;
Wherein, the buying source data information includes: BOM data, the scrappage of product, practical production capacity, physical holding of stock information, supplies Answer period, contract information, product supply progress;The purchasing forecast result includes: buying executive mode, buying hour, supply Quotient's information.
5. method as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that described using inventory control model and based on inventory source number It is believed that breath, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information obtain finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result includes:
Inventory's source data, the historical data of sale, buying are obtained, and obtains storehouse storage space information and finished product and raw material store Deposit historical information;
Using the historical data, the storehouse storage space information, the finished product and raw materials inventory historical information as training Data obtain neural network model using machine learning algorithm training;
Inventory's source data information, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information are input to trained mind Through network model, the finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result are exported;
Wherein, inventory's source data includes: on-hand inventory, delivery cycle, in way order, production cycle, consumption of raw materials information; The finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result include: finished product and raw materials inventory information, the plan of replenishing.
6. method as claimed in claim 5, which is characterized in that further include:
Using bayesian algorithm, according to source data occur abnormal and other source datas occur the estimation of the conditional probability between exception and Prior probability trains Bayes classifier;
When determining that source data occurs abnormal, carried out by the Bayes classifier obtained after training to there is abnormal source data There are other abnormal source datas in risk profile, prediction;
Risk program is correspondingly prevented based on other source datas acquisition for exception occur.
Wherein, the source data includes: sale source data, buying source data, supplier's source data, inventory's source data.
7. a kind of supply chain control system characterized by comprising
Sales forecast control module using Sale Forecasting Model and is based on the sale source for obtaining sale source data information Data information obtains sales forecast data;
Supplier's evaluation module using supplier's assessment models and is based on the supply for obtaining supplier's source data information Quotient's source data information obtains supplier's comprehensive score information;
Purchasing forecast module, for obtaining buying source data information, being conducive to purchasing forecast model and being based on the buying source data Information, the sales forecast data and supplier's comprehensive score information acquisition purchasing forecast result;
Inventory management module using inventory control model and is based on inventory's source data for obtaining inventory's source data information Information, the purchasing forecast result, the sale source data information obtain finished product and raw materials inventory prediction result.
8. system as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that
The sales forecast control module for obtaining historical sales specified number evidence, and establishes historical sales volume data sequence;By institute The historical sales specified number in historical sales volume data sequence is stated according to adding up, obtains cumulative data sequence and based on this cumulative number Linear first-order differential equation is established according to sequence;Sliding-model control is carried out to the linear first-order differential equation, and using minimum two Multiplication obtains parameter vector;It constructs to obtain grey forecasting model based on the linear first-order differential equation and the parameter vector, As the Sale Forecasting Model;Confidence interval based on one-variable linear regression prediction model estimation sales volume;Use confidence area Between and predicted according to the grey forecasting model, obtain the sales forecast data.
9. a kind of supply chain control system characterized by comprising
Memory;And it is coupled to the processor of the memory, the processor is configured to based on the storage is stored in Instruction in device executes such as method described in any one of claims 1 to 6.
10. a kind of computer readable storage medium, is stored thereon with computer program instructions, which is handled by one or more The step of method described in claim 1 to 6 any one is realized when device executes.
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