JP2005025645A - Information providing system and information processing system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide the problem that there is no means to visualize and analyze a complicated phenomenon in a practical form in a short time, whereas a market background which becomes important in providing a commodity or service by advertisement is a social phenomenon involving large-scale data. <P>SOLUTION: An information acquisition device capable of acquiring information from an information providing means is combined with an information processor having an information processing means with which the information acquisition device can be connected based on the information acquired from the information providing means, in which the information processing means stores, visualizes and analyzes the result of information processing performed by the information acquisition device with the information processing means, whereby a means for collecting, analyzing and visualizing data of the complicated phenomenon such as the social phenomenon in real time is provided. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

【０２０７】次にパラメーター入力モジュールで、選択した方程式の各項のパラメーターを入力する。
【０２０８】具体例として、流体力学の支配方程式であるナビエストークス方程式には、Ｒｅ：レイノルズ数（粘性と密度の関数）、ｕ：速度，ｐ：圧力，Ｔ：温度，Ｋ：外力、というパラメーターがある。
【０２０９】方程式のパラメーター埋めるために、パターン認識モジュールで認識したパターンを基に、パラメーター設定モジュールが、データ収集手段が収集したデータを構成するそれぞれのパラメーターのうち、現象を説明するのに最適と思われるパラメーターを方程式の各パラメーターに振り当てる。
【０２１０】例えば、粘性を市場現象の要因として情報の伝播に置き換えて考える場合、例えば情報が市場の中を素早く伝わる（流れる）のとゆっくりと伝わる（流れる）との違いとして置き換えることが考えられ、密度は一定地域（例えば５００メッシュ）のなかのターゲット人口の密度と考えられる。
【０２１１】
圧力は、購買の意志決定に影響を及ぼす情報の量として考えることが出来る。具体例としては、ＴＶＣＭや新聞雑誌で多くの広告を投下することや、地域に密着した強力なプロモーション、或いはＴＶ番組で非常に好意的に取り上げられたなど、情報を投下された消費者に購買意志に影響を与える情報量の量を圧力として考える。
【０２１２】また、ナビエストークス方程式の変形として熱などの移動や拡散を記述する移流拡散方程式がある。移流拡散方程式にはｆ：移流速度関数、ｖ：拡散係数、ｕ：速度、ｐ：圧力というパラメーターがある。
【０２１３】移流拡散方程式を利用して、現象を説明するのに最適と思われるパラメーターの例を挙げると、例えば移流速度関数には商品や地域の特性によって異なる関数として、
【０２１４】拡散係数は競合商品との価格差の関数、速度は販売の速度を司るメッシュ内における商品販売店舗のシェア 、圧力は広告投下量や情報提供装置からの情報提供量などを当てはめることが考えられる。

参考２：移流拡散方程式
【０２１５】また自然科学の方程式にはこの他に初期条件と境界条件と言うパラメーターがあるが、マーケティング現象の記述の際には初期条件入力は、全くゼロ（新製品の場合には商品が市場に存在していない状態）として入力する、或いは実際の商品のある時点における流通量の分布などを初期条件として入力する、或いは分布が一様であるとして入力することなどが考えられる。また、境界条件については本実施の形態では、２次元の地図上で現象の展開を計算するため、四辺それぞれを境界条件として定める等の方法が考えられる。
【０２１６】さらに上述のような自然科学に基づいたモデルや方程式以外に、既存の経済仮説やマーケティング仮説に基づいて、或いは操作者の経験に基づいて方程式の各パラメーターにデータ収集モジュールで収集したデータのパラメーターを組み合わせることも可能である。
【０２１７】自然科学のモデルや方程式以外に、経済仮説やマーケティング仮説に基づいてパラメーターを埋める場合には、現象に関連が深いと思われる、或いは市場の現象に影響を与えていると考えられる要因を、仮説に基づいてそれぞれの項に当てはめる。
【０２１８】以上の様な方法で、方程式記憶設定モジュールとパラメーター入力モジュールは、仮定した方程式とパラメーターのセットを出力し、パラメーターセット記憶部に記憶させる。
【０２１９】この時、方程式記憶設定モジュールとパラメーター入力モジュールは、パターン認識結果や仮説に基づいて、現象を記述すると仮定する複数の条件の異なる方程式とパラメーターのセット（＝パラメーターセット１、２・・・ｎ）を出力する事が出来る。
【０２２０】この複数の、パラメーターセット（＝現象を動かす法則と要因と要因の関係の仮説セット）を、予測シミュレーションモジュールに入力してシミュレーションする事により、仮説や仮定した方程式及びパラメーターがどの程度を説明しているのかを確認することが出来る。
＜予測シミュレーション手段＞
【０２２１】図２３は 予測シミュレーション手段のブロック図である。
パラメーター（要因）抽出手段が出力した、現象を記述すると仮定する複数の条件の異なる方程式とパラメーターのセット（＝パラメーターセット１、２・・・ｎ）を計算条件ファイルとして、計算条件ファイル入力部に入力して、シミュレーション計算の方程式とパラメーターのセットとする。
【０２２２】さらに、シミュレーション計算のデータとして、過去の実績データを収集手段から入力する。
【０２２３】シミュレーション計算モジュールは、過去のデータと計算条件ファイルを利用して、現象を記述すると仮定する複数の条件の異なる方程式とパラメーターのセット（＝パラメーターセット１、２・・・ｎ）の各々に対して、現象の予測シミュレーションを行う。
【０２２４】シミュレーション結果ファイルは時間軸に沿った現象の状況予測ファイルとして複数（例えば１日を単位として１ヶ月分であれば、３０個）出力される。
【０２２５】シミュレーション計算モジュールは、現象を記述すると仮定する複数の条件の異なる方程式とパラメーターのセット（＝パラメーターセット１、２・・・ｎの各々に対して、現象の予測シミュレーションを行い、シミュレーション結果ファイルを生成する。
【０２２６】生成されたシミュレーション結果ファイルは、条件を変えて現象を予測したファイルとしてパラメーターセット毎に時系列にまとめられ、シミュレーション結果ファイル出力部に記憶され、現象が自然現象と相似であるかどうかを現象チェック部によって熱力学的チェックを受け様にすることも可能である。熱力学的チェックについては後述する。
【０２２７】シミュレーション結果ファイル出力部に記憶された、ファイルは可視化手段によって現象を（例えば一ヶ月分）予測したアニメーションとして可視化される。
【０２２８】実際の社会や市場の現象は多くの要因が複雑に相互作用し合う現象であるため、各要因のバランスが大きく現象の推移に影響を及ぼすことが考えられるので、パラメーター（要因）抽出は非常に困難な作業となる。
【０２２９】本発明の各手段を利用して、現象を説明する方程式とパラメーター（要因）とパラメーターの相互作用の重み付けを変化させた複数のパラメーターセットを作り、様々なパラメーターセットに対応する予測シミュレーションを行うことで現象の変化の振る舞いについて多くの知見を得ることが出来る。
【０２３０】例えば実際に企業が本発明を利用する際に、シミュレーション中で特に重要であるのはパラメーターの変化に対する現象の振る舞いの変化である。具体的には、そのパラメーターを少し変化させただけで大きく現象の振る舞いが変わってしまうパラメーター。もう一つは色々なパラメーターを変化させてもほとんど変化しない現象の振る舞いである。
【０２３１】マーケティングにおいては、前者は少しの間違いが結果に大きな影響を及ぼすため非常に注意すべきパラメーターであり、時間と労力をかけて意志決定すべき要因であるし。後者はパラメーターの選択に関わらず安定的な現象であると考えられるので、このような現象面について会議や意志決定といった経営資源を費やす危険を避けるべきであることがわかる。
＜パラメーター検証作業＞
【０２３２】現象を記述すると仮定する複数の条件の異なる方程式とパラメーターのセット（＝パラメーターセット１、２・・・ｎ）が、現象を記述する方程式と、現象の変化を説明するパラメーターとしてどの程度正しいかを検証する方法については様々な方法が考えられるが、実施の形態の例として２つの方法について説明する。
【０２３３】現象の（例えば一ヶ月分）の変化を予測シミュレーションした後に、実際の（例えば一ヶ月分）の現象データを双方とも視覚化して比較し、最も実際の現象の変化に近いパターンをパターン認識モジュールが抽出することにより。パラメーターセットの方程式とパラメーターを現象を説明するパラメーターセットであるとする。
＜視覚化の具体例＞
【０２３４】予測シミュレーションを視覚化したアニメーションは、現象のパターン（特徴）の認識を容易にするために、例えば５００ｍメッシュのマトリックス上に、例えば圧力に相当するパラメーターを等高線、密度に相当するパラメーターを色の濃淡などで表示して、それぞれのパラメーターの時系列な変化をアニメーションで表す事が考えられる。
さらに、予測と実際の販売量の差などを色の濃度で表示する、予測と実際の販売量が大きく異なる地域或いは時系列のみを強調して表示することなども考えられる。
＜自然科学モデルを応用する意義＞
【０２３５】社会や市場の現象を説明する方法として、なぜ自然科学におけるモデル及び法則や方程式を応用するのかを、課題と効果と実用化の手段、という３つの側面から説明する。
【０２３６】課題としては、社会科学の研究の中で、果たして社会現象に法則性があるか、或いはどの様な法則があるのかと言う問題は長年に渡って議論されている。
【０２３７】特に社会に与える重要性から経済現象における法則とその応用については、非常に重要視されている。
【０２３８】従来では、社会現象は一般的には自然現象と異なり、人間の価値観や行動に大きく左右されるため、通常の自然現象とは本質的に異なると考えられてきた。このため心理学的的な理論（仮説）に基づいて社会現象を分析するなどの試みが多く行われてきた。
【０２３９】しかし、社会現象の変化が急速になりつつある現在では、従来的な分析手法による分析や予測の結果が実際の経済現象と整合しないために、その理論によって行政や企業が建てた戦略が有効に機能できず、社会に大きな混乱が惹起されるという問題も顕在化している。
【０２４０】一方、一部の研究者は経済現象などの社会現象に、自然現象に見られる現象が存在しているという理論（仮説）を提唱している。
【０２４１】例えば、自己組織化現象を理解する基礎となる非平衡現象の研究でノーベル賞を受賞したイワン・プリゴジンが「混沌からの秩序（みすず書房）」で言及しているように、一部の研究者は経済現象などの社会現象に自然現象と相似な現象が存在していると考えている。
【０２４２】また、社会現象には自然現象に多く見られるカオス的な現象が存在しているために、予測が困難であるという理論（仮説）を提唱している社会科学の研究者も多い。
【０２４３】カオス現象とは例えば流体の流れにおける乱流のような、単純な方程式で記述可能であり、決定論的であるにも関わらず、予測が非常に困難である現象である。
【０２４４】しかし、これらの社会現象に自然科学的な現象と相似な現象が存在しているかを、検証する技術的な手段は過去には存在していなかった。
【参考文献３】
Ｉ．プリゴジン Ｉ．スタンジェール １９８４ 混沌からの秩序 みすず書房
【０２４５】以上のような課題に対して本発明を適用することにより、実際に社会現象に自然現象と相似な現象の存在の可否を検証することが可能になる・
【０２４６】長年に渡って研究が行われてきた自然科学のモデルや方程式で記述可能であるとすれば、社会現象の性質について大きな知見を得ることが出来るばかりでなく、社会や市場の変化を方程式によって詳細にシミュレーションすることが可能になり、人間の社会現象に対する理解や、社会構造そのものが大きく進歩する可能性がある。
【０２４７】さらに、社会や市場の動きや変化を論理的に理解することによって社会や経済の混乱を最小限に収めるために役立てることも可能になる。
【０２４８】実用化の手段としては、上述してきたような本発明による情報処理システムを用いて、社会現象を分析することで、社会や市場の現象に自然科学の法則に対応するような法則性が存在するかが明らかにする手段を備える。
【０２４９】具体的には、仮定した方程式とパラメーターによってシミュレーションした現象が、熱力学の第一法則：エネルギー保存則を満たしているかをチェックする。
【０２５０】もし満たしている場合は熱力学の第一法則：エントロピー増大則を満たしているかをチェックする。
【０２５１】どちらかの法則を満たさない場合はこの現象は基本的に自然科学的現象ではないと言える。また、双方の法則を満たす場合、この現象は自然科学的な現象である可能性がある。
【０２５２】また、シミュレーションした現象にカオス的な振る舞いがあるかどうかは、シミュレーション結果ファイルを直接確認する或いは、視覚化した現象の時系列的な振る舞いをパターン認識する或いは、ユーザーが視認することによってカオス的な現象であるかを確認する事が出来る。
＜アイドマ理論モデル＞
【０２５３】上述したような方程式とパラメーターを利用して具体例として、市場の現象としてある商品の販売量を左右する要因として商品の購買を促す情報として広告と口コミとその投下量及び強度について流体力学モデルに即した仮説を立て、仮説にそって現象をシミュレーションし、実際の販売量と比較する事によって仮説の正しさ、つまり現象を左右すると仮定した要因が実際に現象にどの程度の影響を与えるかを知るという方法論を説明する。
【０２５４】商品の販売量と情報の関係ついては、ＡＩＤＭＡ（アイドマ）と呼ばれる有名なマーケティング理論（仮説）がある。これは消費者に情報を提供することによって、消費行動を喚起できるとする理論である。
【０２５５】アイドマ理論は具体的には広告宣伝や口コミによって消費者へ商品に関する情報を伝播させ、Ａｔｔｅｎｔｉｏｎ：注意、Ｉｎｔｅｒｅｓｔ：興味、Ｄｅｓｉｒｅ：欲求、Ｍｅｍｏｒｉｙ：記憶 と喚起を行い、その効果によってＡｃｔｉｏｎ：購買行動を起すという段階を説明している理論である。
【０２５６】このアイドマ理論を基に、実際に企業は莫大な費用を投じて広告を大量に投下し自社のサービス・商品を消費者に訴求している。
【０２５７】このアイドマ理論をモデル化すると、例えば図２７に示すようなモデル及び方程式として表すことが出来る。
【０２５８】さらに、商品の購買を促す情報としては多くの要素があるが、株式会社インフォプラントによる
『口コミ調査２００２』（２００３）によると購入意志の決定においては、テレビＣＭ（４３．３％）の次に、「口コミ」（３４．７％）が影響している、しかしインターネットやメールは認知や興味のきっかけとなるはあっても、購入意志の決定においては１０％以下と低く有力な情報源とはまだなりえていない。
【０２５９】しかし、一部の食品を除いて、一般的な商品は人口すべてを購買対象としていない。つまりその商品を購入する見込みユーザーが存在する。例えばビールであれば２０歳以上の年齢の男性が主な見込みユーザーであり、化粧品であれば若年層から中年層の女性が主な見込みユーザーである。
【０２６０】これらの見込みユーザーに商品情報を効果的に届けるように広告などのプロモーションが行われ、結果として購買行動が惹起され、販売量が増加するというモデルが現在実際に行われている企業における販売戦略である。
【０２６１】つまりアイドマモデルに基づいて現象を計算するには、まず商品の見込みユーザーがどの地域にどの程度の量存在しているかを明確にする必要がある。
【０２６２】そこで、ＧＩＳ（地図情報システム）の地図属性データを利用する、５年に一度行われる国勢調査により、日本全国を５００ｍＸ５００ｍの矩形に分割し、各矩形内の性別、５歳区分年齢別、職業別の人口がそれぞれ何人居住しているか、さらに昼間人口と夜間人口の差を知ることが出来る。
【０２６３】さらに、ＧＩＳ（地図情報システム）の地図属性データとしては、各矩形内の税収から推定した、各矩形内の平均年収や、商業統計調査による、各矩形内の商業施設の数、その平均面積及び売り上げを知ることが出来る。
【０２６４】図２８に、首都圏を５００ｍＸ５００ｍの矩形に分割し、各矩形内の総人口を色別に表示した図を、図２９に同じく首都圏を５００ｍＸ５００ｍの矩形に分割し、各矩形内の店舗数を色別に表示した図を示す。
【０２６５】ここで、上述した情報伝搬から販売量を導くモデル（仮説）を式として表す。
【０２６６】
販売量＝購買行動量＝購入ターゲット人口Ｘ購買率
【０２６７】
購買率＝（マクロ情報伝達量（マス広告）＋ミクロ情報伝達量（口コミ））
【０２６８】この現象をシミュレーションするために、パラメーター（要因）抽出手段の方程式設定手段を利用して、ナビエストークス方程式或いは移流拡散方程式にパラメーター（要因）抽出手段のパラメーター設定手段を利用してパラメーターを設定する。
【０２６９】次に、各メッシュの購買ターゲット人口と情報伝達（情報提供システムからの情報提供量と広告投下量）量から販売予測計算する方程式を設定する。
【０２７０】具体的には商品の情報伝達量を計算する移流拡散方程式を作成して、首都圏を５００ｍＸ５００ｍの矩形に分割し、各矩形内の購買を促す情報伝達量を計算し販売予測量を計算する。
＜本発明の応用＞
【０２７１】本発明による情報処理装置は単体で利用することのみならず、計算機などの機械に社会現象などのような複雑な様々な形で分析し予測させるための、構成要素として利用することが可能である。
【０２７２】具体的には本発明を複雑な社会現象の可視化およびシミュレーションのための基礎ツールとして位置付けることにより。様々なモデルやツールの取り込みによって、機能を拡張する事が出来る。
【０２７３】
連携するツールの例としては、ＰＯＳシステムやＧＩＳシステム以外にも、例えば販売戦略の策定実行ツールとしてのＣＲＭ（カスタマーリレーションシップ）システムや、ＥＲＰ（エンタープライズリソースプランニング）システム。
【０２７４】さらには競合商品との相互関係をモデル化する、ゲーム理論やニューロネットなどと連携して本発明のシステムの高度な利用を実現すること
が考えられる。
【０２７５】当然、連携するシステムなどの関連のアプリケーションが、本発明の各機能を利用して、さらに社会的に要求の高い応用や、高度な応用を実現することが可能である。
【０２７６】また、情報処理装置３５００は、単数で構成されてもよく、また、複数で構成されてもよい。すなわち、ネットワークに接続された単数のコンピューターだけで情報処理装置３５００及びデータベース３５１０を構成してもよい。
【００２７７】また、複数のコンピューターを組み合わせて情報処理装置３５００及び／又はデータベース３５１０を構成してもよい。
【０２７８】また、各手段を別々のハードウェア（コンピューター）に実装し連結して使用しても良い。さらに比較的計算処理量が大きいＧＩＳメッシュ上のデータ計算或いは非線形方程式の計算などを並列計算機で行うことにより、計算処理時間を短縮することが出来る。
【０２７９】また本発明による情報処理の出力、つまり社会現象などのような複雑な現象を分析及び、視覚化及び、パターン及び／又はパラメーター抽出、現象を記述する方程式を生成した結果は人間が利用するのみならず、コンピューターなどのような情報処理装置が社会現象のような複雑な現象の知見や意味や傾向や背景を学習し、社会現象を計算によって処理する際にも応用出来る。
【０２８０】近年、コンピューターなどのような情報処理装置によって人間の諸活動の補助を行わせようとする試みが多く為されている。
【０２８１】しかしその際に非常に困難であったのが、人間の活動や行動や言動の基礎として実際に存在する社会的な背景（コンテクスト）を、コンピューターなどのような情報処理装置が計算可能なパラメーターとして供給することが非常に困難であると言う課題があった。
【０２８２】例えば、ある消費者の情報収集活動や購買活動の記録を情報処理して、その消費者が興味を持ちそうな情報や商品を推奨するサービスが実用化されつつある。しかし人間の行動に大きな影響をもたらす、社会的な背景を情報処理するためには、社会的な背景そのものを情報処理（計算）可能な形式に変換する必要がある。
【０２８３】しかし、社会現象のデータをほぼリアルタイムに現実に即した形で収集して、社会現象の複雑さが充分に反映された形で分析し、社会的な背景そのものを情報処理（計算）可能な形式に変換する手段を構築することは従来困難であった。
【０２８４】しかし上述してきたように、本発明の情報処理装置を利用すれば、社会現象などのような複雑な現象を分析した出力を、そのまま計算機による計算に供することが可能になる
【０２８５】このため、本発明による情報処理装置は単体で利用することのみならず、従来であれば困難だった、計算機などの機械に社会現象などのような複雑な現象を認知させるための構成要素として利用する事が可能である。
【０２８６】社会科学における応用、社会学における様々な仮説を本発明によって検証することが出来る。
＜本発明に関わる装置、方法、システムのビジネスモデル＞
【０２８７】本発明に関わる情報処理装置の運用者の運用益を創出させるために、情報提供者への課金する方法と、本発明に関わる情報交換を行う消費者にインセンティブをもたらす方法について説明する。
【０２８８】上述してきたような情報提供（取得）の仕組みを実際にビジネスとして行う場合には、システムの構築及び運用などの費用を賄うビジネスモデルが必要である。
【０２８９】また、多くの消費者に情報の取得、情報へのアクセスを行わせるためには、単なる利便性以外にも何らかのインセンティブが存在することが好ましい。
【０２９０】そこで本発明を実際にビジネスとして行う場合には、情報提供に関わる金銭の授受を行うビジネスモデルを付与することが有効である。
【０２９１】ここでは、２つの例について説明する、しかし本発明のシステムを運用することにより様々な売り上げや利益を創出する方法が考えられる。
【０２９２】情報提供手段から、消費者の所持する情報取得装置が情報を取得する（リーチ）回数ごとに、上述したようにリーチ（情報提供回数）がカウントされ、情報処理手段３５００は、情報（広告）提供者（図ではＡ社）に、リーチ（情報提供回数）に応じた一定の金額を情報提供手数料として請求する。
【０２９３】又は、情報提供手段から取得した情報を元に、消費者が所持する情報取得装置が情報（広告）提供者（図ではＡ社）のサーバーにアクセスを行った（情報処理手段３５００がリダイレクトした）回数に応じて、情報処理手段３５００は、情報（広告）提供者（図ではＡ社）に、リーチ（情報提供回数）に応じた一定の金額を情報提供手数料として請求する。
【０２９４】この時、消費者が所持する情報取得装置への還元は、消費者の住所などの個人属性をあらかじめ取得し金銭による還元という手段を取ることも可能である。
【０２９５】或いは情報取得装置のＩＤに対しネットワーク上で使用できるポイントなどを付与する事も可能である。
【０２９６】また、本発明のシステムの運用者が情報取得装置の運用者である場合には、情報取得回数や情報提供者へのアクセスに応じて、情報取得装置使用料金の一部相殺（例えば携帯電話の通話料に対する課金の一部相殺）などの手段によって消費者の情報交換活動に対するインセンティブを与えることも可能である。
【０２９７】具体例としては、以下のような形態が考えられる。
【０２９８】消費者の情報取得装置９が、Ａ社の広告を行っている情報提供手段６ａから、情報を取得した場合、システム運用者は消費者に対する情報提供１回ごとにＡ社から１０円を徴収する。さらにシステム運用者は情報を取得した消費者（の情報取得装置）へのインセンティブとして、Ａ社から聴取した１０円の内の一定割合をペイバックする。
【０２９９】さらに、
情報取得した消費者がＡ社のサーバーへアクセスするとシステム運用者は消費者に対する情報提供１回ごとにＡ社から２０円を徴収する。
【０３００】さらにシステム運用者は情報を取得した消費者（の情報取得装置）へのインセンティブとして、Ａ社から聴取した２０円の内の一定割合をペイバックする。
【０３０１】この時ペイバックは何らかのポイント制度などによって実現しても良いし、システム運用者が携帯電話事業者などである場合にはインセンティブポイントに相当する通話料金を割引するなどの方法によって実現しても良い。
【発明の効果】
【０３０２】説明してきたように、本発明により、有効な情報提供システムを実現できた。さらに広告などのような情報提供の効果を測定する方法が実現し、情報提供が効果的にされたか？情報はどのような人々に提供されたのかなどを直感的に知ることが可能になった。
【０３０３】広告などにより商品やサービスを提供する際に重要になる、消費者間での流行などのような現象を視覚化する方法が可能になった。
【０３０４】広告などにより商品やサービスを提供する際に重要になる、市場背景について分析する際に、統計手法のような線形的な分析では過去の傾向を知ることは出来てもその理由を知ることが可能なった。
【０３０５】広告などにより商品やサービスを提供する際に重要になる、市場背景は大規模なデータを伴う社会現象であり、そのような複雑な現象を短時間で現実に即した形で視覚化し分析する手段を提供する事が出来た。
【０３０６】上述のように本発明は宣伝広告などの情報提供に非常に高い効果をもたらすばかりではなく、消費者がどの様な商品やサービスに興味を持っているのかを知ることが出来る。さらに、消費者の興味が、地域別に、消費者の属性に、時間経過によってどの様な変化をしているのかを視覚的に概観することが出来る。
【０３０７】本来、非線形である社会現象を非線形的に捉え、社会現象を全体的な視点で分析できる。非線形系に特有の摂動敏感性や経路依存性の現象などの発見を促す。
【０３０８】静的・線形的統計手法よりも精度が高い予測を得ることが出来る
、さらに可視化・アニメーションにより専門家のみが理解できる難解な出力ではなく、社会科学者や実際の意思決定者が、その経験を生かして社会現象うぃ直感的に理解できる。
【０３０９】経済政策・経営戦略におけるマーケティングリサーチの道具として本発明を利用した場合、
現実の市場環境の動き変化を可視化するため、消費動向調査、競合商品調査などをおこなう事が出来る。また、
政策・戦略の策定フェーズ
では本発明を仮説・検証を繰り返すことで、より精度の高い政策や戦略の意思決定を行うための予測シミュレーションを行う道具として利用できる。
【０３１０】また政策・戦略の実行フェーズでは本発明を
政策・戦略実行過程において、社会の流れの変化を可視化し、適切な対処を行うためモニタリングを行うための道具として利用できる。
結果の分析・評価フェーズでは本発明を
による政策・戦略の結果や成果の可視化により、有効かつ効率的な新規政策・戦略策定に向けた示唆を与える評価・分析を行う道具として利用できる。
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】情報提供手段と情報取得装置、及び情報取得装置とネットワークで接続可能な情報処理装置を略示的に示したブロック図
【図２】情報処理装置を含む情報提供システムの概念図
【図３】情報提供装置毎の情報提供回数（リーチ）比較表
【図４】情報提供装置毎の情報提供回数（リーチ）比較グラフ
【図５】Ａ旅行社の情報提供装置毎の情報提供回数（リーチ）比較グラフ
【図６】販売装置と情報処理装置を組み合わせたシステムの概念図
【図７】情報提供装置毎の消費者アクション比較表
【図８】情報提供装置毎の消費者アクション比較グラフ
【図９】リーチした消費者の属性表
【図１０】リーチした消費者の属性別グラフ１
【図１１】リーチした消費者の属性別グラフ２
【図１２】個人を特定しない消費者属性の例
【図１３】地域別（狭域）に被情報提供傾向を表示した図の例
【図１４】地域別（広域）にリーチの傾向を表示した図の例
【図１５】地域別に被情報提供傾向を表示した図の例
【図１６】地域別に被情報提供効果を表示した図の例
【図１７】地域別に被情報提供効果を予測して表示した図の例
【図１８】情報処理システムの概念図
【図１９】情報処理システムにおける情報の流れ
【図２０】データ収集手段
【図２１】視覚化手段
【図２２】パラメーター（要因）抽出手段
【図２３】予測シミュレーション手段
【図２４】データ収集フローチャート
【図２５】可視化・パラメーター抽出フローチャート
【図２６】パラメーター検証作業フローチャート
【図２７】アイドマ理論モデル
【図２８】ＧＩＳシステム画面例１（人口分布）
【図２９】ＧＩＳシステム画面例２（店舗の分布）
【符号の説明】
３００はインターネットあるいは電話網などのネットワーク、
３５０は情報処理装置
３５００は情報処理装置
３５１０は情報処理システムに関わる記録を集中的に管理するデーターベース
３７０及び３７１は携帯電話の基地局或いはホットスポットなどの無線中継装置、
３７５及び３７６は携帯電話のあるいはホットスポットのゲートウェイサーバー、
Ｓ１、Ｓ２は所持者が所持する情報取得装置、
９１は情報取得装置のディスプレイ、
９２は情報取得装置のメモリ、
９３は情報取得装置のＣＰＵ、
９８は情報取得装置の近距離無線通信の送受信インターフェイス、
９９は情報取得装置の操作部、[0001]
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system for providing information and an apparatus and system for information processing.
[0002]
[Prior art]
In the market, it is very important to notify consumers of products and services, to recognize the existence of products and services, and to stimulate their interest and willingness to purchase.
Furthermore, in today's complex market and rapidly changing, it is more important to quickly detect changes in consumer needs and preferences and feed them back to products and services.
[0005] However, advertising advertisements, which are the main means for informing consumers of products and services, recognizing the existence of products and services, and inspiring interest and purchase motivation, have been provided by information providers. Often done unilaterally for providers, and relied on methods such as questionnaires to measure the effectiveness of information provision.
Conventionally, the work of analyzing and predicting the market and economy, which are social phenomena, has been analyzed as a linear phenomenon based on statistical methods.
The major purpose of analysis and analysis for such complex systems such as social phenomena is to cope with the situation predicted in the future in order that companies and governments will be in a better (desirable) state in the future. It is for preparing and producing countermeasures.
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
However, the conventional techniques as described above have the following problems.
There was no way to measure the effectiveness of providing information such as advertisements. Has information provision been made effective? It was difficult to know more intuitively personality in a short time, such as to whom the information was provided.
There has been no method for visualizing a phenomenon such as a fashion among consumers, which is important when providing goods or services by advertisement or the like.
When analyzing the market background, which is important when providing goods and services through advertisements, etc., even if a linear analysis such as a statistical method can identify past trends, it knows the reasons. It was difficult.
The market background, which is important when providing goods and services through advertisements, is a social phenomenon with large-scale data. Such complex phenomena can be visualized in a short time in a realistic manner. There was no means to analyze.
Furthermore, since the substance of a social phenomenon is a nonlinear phenomenon in which the phenomenon changes due to the complex interaction of many elements (parameters), for example, a small element greatly affects the change of the phenomenon. There are many things.
Further, the characteristic of such a non-linear phenomenon is that it is deterministic and analyzable, but it is often sensitive to the initial value and is very difficult to predict.
Therefore, there is a problem that the problem cannot often be grasped only by statistical or linear analysis.
As a concrete example, an analytical method using statistical analysis has been advanced and refined, but it is difficult for a decision maker in the field to intuitively understand the phenomenon. Visualization is mostly static drawing. Many estimations and predictions require strong distribution assumptions
Etc.
The biggest adverse effects are that statistical methods inherently involve the difficulty of determining factors that change market and social phenomena, and that small and large factors interact in complex ways. It is difficult to capture the phenomenon dynamically.
Further, in the statistical method, a phenomenon that changes in time series is greatly generalized and analyzed to roughly grasp the phenomenon and to analyze in detail a section of a micro part of the phenomenon. It is difficult to visualize the relationship between changes and their factors.
Furthermore, in the linear statistical method, the change in the phenomenon is deterministically analyzed, and the time series possibility of the complicated change phenomenon cannot be sufficiently predicted. .
In the case of only the conventional analysis method having the above-described problems, as soon as the result of the analysis is actually obtained (in a relatively short time), it often deviates greatly from the prediction range. It was difficult for the government to prepare for the future.
Accordingly, the present invention provides an information processing system for analyzing social phenomena by a new method.
[Means for Solving the Problems]
An information processing apparatus according to the present invention comprises:
An information acquisition device capable of acquiring information from the information providing means;
It has information processing means that the information acquisition device can connect to based on information acquired from the information providing means
Results of information processing performed by information acquisition device with information processing means
The information processing means stores, visualizes, and analyzes.
[0022]
The information processing apparatus according to the present invention
Having information providing means having a plurality of unique identification information and a plurality of information acquisition devices;
Further, each information providing device provides information including unique identification information to the information acquisition device.
Further, the information processing means acquires the identification information of the information providing device from the information acquiring device.
The information processing means stores, visualizes and analyzes information including identification information unique to the information providing means.
[0023]
The information processing apparatus according to the present invention
A plurality of information providing means and an information acquisition device having a plurality of unique identification information,
Furthermore, the information processing means acquires the identification information of the information acquisition device from the information acquisition device.
The information processing means stores, visualizes, and analyzes information including unique identification information of the information acquisition device.
[0024]
The information processing apparatus according to the present invention is characterized in that the unique identification information of the information providing means includes or can be indicated by information indicating a position where the information characteristic means exists.
[0025]
The information processing apparatus according to the present invention is characterized in that the information processing means stores, visualizes and analyzes the information processing result in time series.
[0026]
An information processing system according to the present invention is an information processing system that visualizes and simulates a phenomenon, and has a configuration thereof.
Means for collecting data necessary for analysis of phenomena, means for converting phenomenon data into a format that can be processed, and means for visualizing the converted data
A means of recognizing patterns of visualized phenomena
A means for storing patterns of recognized phenomena;
Means for comparing patterns of stored phenomena and extracting patterns of approximate phenomena; means for selecting and setting an equation describing a pattern of phenomena from a result of comparison from previously stored equations;
If there is no equation describing the phenomenon,
Means to set each parameter of the equation;
A means to perform prediction simulation of phenomena based on the set equations and parameters and the collected data;
A means of visualizing the results of predictive simulations
Means to compare the latest data with the simulated phenomena based on equations common to the patterns and / or parameters of the searched or generated phenomena
An information processing system comprising any or all of the above.
An information processing system including any or all of the above.
[0027]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
<Information acquisition device capable of acquiring information from information providing means>
The information acquisition device capable of acquiring information from the information providing means is preferably implemented by a device that is always portable by the user. Specific examples thereof include a mobile phone, a PDA, and an IC card (including a non-contact type). It is conceivable to carry out the present invention using an imaging means such as an RF (wireless) tag, a micro RF tag, a camera, and an information acquisition device combining them.
<Information provision means>
The information providing means are walls, POS devices, elevators, product display shelves, and show windows in streets, underground malls, stores, store facilities, and public facilities such as stations and airports. Printed items such as posters and books, image display devices such as TVs and kiosks, panels and billboards for advertising, etc. installed on various places such as cars such as buses and trains, walls themselves, objects, pillars and floors For example, it is conceivable that various items existing in the real world are provided with means for directly communicating with devices or information processing apparatuses possessed by the user and used as information providing means.
Also, depending on the embodiment of the present invention, as an opposite form described above, a device that is always portable by the user is used as an information providing means, and it is used in a street, an underground mall, a store, a store facility, a station, an airport. Walls, POS devices, elevators, merchandise display shelves, show windows in public facilities. Printed items such as posters and books, image display devices such as TVs and kiosks, panels and billboards for advertising, etc. installed on various places such as cars such as buses and trains, walls themselves, objects, pillars and floors Etc. can be used as an information acquisition device.
<Means that make it possible to obtain information from information providing means>
In order for the information processing apparatus possessed by the user to acquire information from these information providing means, various means such as a method using short-range wireless communication and a method using image processing means are available. Can be considered. Specific examples are given below.
An information providing unit that displays information to be provided to the information providing unit as a character string or a symbol and provides information using an image capturing unit attached to the device or the apparatus is possible.
At this time, an image capturing means such as a camera is assigned to the information acquisition device possessed by the user, and a character string or image is assigned to the information providing means to directly acquire information.
As specific examples of character strings and images, information such as URLs, IP addresses and telephone numbers are character strings. Alternatively, an image in which information such as a URL, an IP address, or a telephone number is coded by a specific method such as a one-dimensional barcode or a two-dimensional barcode can be considered.
A method for describing information in a two-dimensional barcode is disclosed in, for example, Japanese Patent Application Nos. 2002-207955 and 2002-183661.
As a means for giving a character string or an image to the information providing means, a method of printing in advance can be considered. When it is desired to provide different information depending on the situation, the information providing means is provided with a character string or image generating means, or the information providing means is provided with a character string or image storing means so that a CRT, a liquid crystal display device, etc. A method of displaying a character string or an image on the screen can be considered.
Next, the device or apparatus possessed by the user is the OCR (optical character reader: optical reading means) software, the bar code analysis software, etc. Is used to convert an information character string such as a URL, IP address, or telephone number or a coded image into a data format that can be used by the device or apparatus, and acquire detailed information.
More specifically, the information acquisition apparatus acquires the information by displaying “http: //” or “www.www” displayed on an image such as a print medium or image display means displayed on the information providing means. The character string of the URL defined by the subsequent character string is extracted, and the image processing means is used to capture as text information, or the one-dimensional barcode or two-dimensional barcode displayed as an image is read and image processing is performed. This is a method for extracting data using means.
When an information acquisition means by image processing is used, for example, an advertisement page such as a magazine or an image display device such as a TV has a URL defined by the character string after “http: //” described above. An information acquisition device that prints or displays character strings, one-dimensional barcodes, two-dimensional barcodes, etc., and has image capturing means such as a camera, and captures images including data such as character strings and barcodes described above. Then, data analysis or decoding is performed using image processing means such as an OCR (optical character reading means) or barcode decoder, and the analyzed or decoded data is sent to a server on the network where detailed information is stored. It can be used as a connection means.
In addition to the above method, a short-range wireless interface corresponding to the information providing means is provided, and the short-range wireless interface is also provided to the information processing apparatus possessed by the user so that information can be directly acquired. Can be considered.
As an example of the short-range wireless interface, an infrared communication interface, a Bluetooth communication interface, a wireless LAN communication interface, and the like can be considered.
[Reference 1]
Japanese Patent Application No. 2002-036302
Furthermore, even if the information acquisition device possessed by the user does not incorporate character string or two-dimensional barcode analysis software, means for allowing the device or device possessed by the user to be connected to a network such as the Internet. If you have it, you can add the analysis software to the server on the network, send the image captured from the information acquisition device owned by the user to the server on the network, and the code analyzed by the analysis server on the network server A similar effect can be obtained by sending a reply to the information acquisition device possessed by the user.
Similarly, an IC card or an RF (wireless) tag having the same mechanism as that of the IC card can be substituted.
An information providing unit and an information acquiring apparatus provided with the information acquiring unit as described above will be described below with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram schematically showing an information providing unit, an information acquisition apparatus, and an information processing apparatus connectable to the information acquisition apparatus via a network according to the present invention.
In FIG. 1, 6 is an information providing means using a printed matter such as a poster as a specific example, 61 is a display section of the information providing means, and in addition to the printed matter, an image display such as a CRT or a liquid crystal screen is provided. It is conceivable to use a device or the like.
Reference numeral 8 denotes means for providing information from the information providing means to the information acquisition apparatus possessed by the user. Specific examples include a specific character string such as a two-dimensional barcode and URL, an IC card or an IC card reader, an RF tag or an RF tag reader, as described above.
S1 is a device or apparatus possessed by the user, and here a cellular phone is used as an example of the embodiment for the sake of concrete explanation.
91 is a mobile phone display device, 92 is a mobile phone information processing device and communication means, and 99 is a mobile phone interface (such as a 10 key).
Reference numeral 98 denotes a means for the mobile phone S 1 to acquire information from the information providing means 6. As a specific example, as described above, an image capturing means for a specific character string such as a two-dimensional barcode or URL, an IC card or an IC card reader, an RF tag or an RF tag reader, or the like can be used.
Reference numeral 300 denotes a network such as the Internet, and reference numeral 301 denotes a server on the network that stores detailed information relating to information displayed on the information providing means. Reference numeral 3500 denotes an information processing apparatus whose function will be described later.
370 is a mobile phone base station, and 375 is a gateway for connecting to a network such as the Internet.
Examples of specific usage methods of the information providing means are given below.
The consumer who has the information acquisition device S1 is interested in the cheap flight ticket of Company A, which is the display content of the information providing means 6, and wishes to acquire more detailed information or actually purchase the cheap flight ticket. If you want to. Conventionally, after confirming and memorizing and taking note of the displayed telephone number or URL, the user operates a device or device possessed by a user such as a mobile phone and inputs the telephone number or URL for details. It required a step of getting information or making a purchase.
However, by using the information providing means 8 of the information providing means 6 and the information acquiring means 98 of the mobile phone S1 possessed, the telephone number and URL can be easily obtained from the information providing means.
Furthermore, unique identification information (ID) that can identify the information providing means individually is given to the information providing means 6 in advance, and the information provided to the information acquisition device possessed by the user is identified by the information providing means. By including the information, the information provision effect can be measured using the information processing device 3500 as described later.
This makes it possible to obtain useful information on the development of effective advertising methods, the market, and marketing.
A specific example of information including identification information of the information providing means will be given. Here, the case where the information sent from the information providing means 6 to the mobile phone S1 is a URL uniquely indicating the server 301 or the information processing apparatus 3500 on the Internet will be described.
At this time, the URL parameter sent from the information providing means 6 to the information acquisition device S1 is, for example, a URL having the following structure.
Http: // www. kanri. co. jp / Travel / kakuyasu / 6a
“Http://www.kanri.co.jp” is the URL of the information processing apparatus 3500.
“Travel /” indicates the content that was advertised by the information providing means 6. In this example, it is shown that it is product information of a cheap flight ticket of Company A.
"/ 6a" is identification information of the information providing means, and indicates that the information acquisition device S1 has acquired this URL from the information providing means 6a.
The consumer who has received the above-mentioned URL from the information providing means 6a uses the network connection means of the information acquisition apparatus S1 to process the information processing apparatus 3500 described in “http://www.kanri.co.jp”. To access.
The information processing device 3500 that has received the access information is that the information acquisition device S1 has accessed the information providing unit identification number 6a and / or information provided by the information providing unit 6a is company A. Is stored in a storage device (not shown) in the information processing device 3500. Of course, the database 3510 may be provided outside the information processing apparatus 3500 to serve as a storage device.
Next, the connection of the information acquisition device S1 is redirected to the Web server 301 of Company A ("Travel /").
Further, by storing the detailed information data stored in the server 301 in the database 3510, processing is performed only by the information acquisition apparatus and the information processing apparatus. It is also possible to omit communication.
It is possible to construct an information processing system for confirming the status of advertising and measuring the effect in real time by installing a large number of information providing means as described above on signboards and image devices for advertising in the real world. Is possible.
FIG. 2 is a block diagram schematically showing an information processing system for measuring the effect of information providing activities such as advertisements in real time.
In FIG. 2, reference numeral 3500 denotes an information processing apparatus that centrally manages information processing activities by the information acquisition apparatus, and is usually implemented in the form of a server on a network by a computer. Reference numeral 3510 denotes a database that centrally manages records related to the information processing system.
S1, S2 and S3 are information acquisition devices possessed by different consumers.
Some of the information providing means provide information (advertisement advertisement) of the same product of the same company, and other information provision means provide information (advertisement advertisement) of the same product of another company. )I do.
For example, in FIG. 12, the information providing means 6a and 6e provide information (advertisement advertisement) for the company A product, the information providing means 6b and 6d provide information for the company S product (advertisement advertisement), and the information providing means 6c. 6f represents a state where information is provided (advertisement advertisement) for the product of Company T.
In addition, it is naturally possible to provide information (advertisement advertisement) on the same product of the same company using advertisements with different display methods, for example, images, designs, copyrights, and appearance talents.
351 to 353 are Web servers of information providers of Company A, Company B, and Company C, which provide detailed information and / or advertisements related to information (advertisement advertisements) performed by the information providing means. EC (Electric Commerce) function to purchase (reserve) existing products. Usually implemented by a computer in the form of a server on the network.
A method for using the information processing apparatus system and the operation thereof according to the present invention will be described below.
A consumer who possesses the information acquisition device S1 has a taste in seeing the advertisement of the cheap flight ticket of the company A by the information provision means A, and uses the information acquisition device S1 possessed from the information provision means. URL (access destination parameter) and information providing means identification information are received.
At this time, the URL parameter sent from the information providing means to the information acquisition apparatus is, for example, a URL having the following structure.
Http: // www. kanri. co. jp / Travel / kakuyasu / 6a
“Http://www.kanri.co.jp” is the URL of the information processing apparatus 3500 that centrally manages the information processing system.
“Travel /” indicates the content that was advertised by the information providing means 6a. In this example, it is shown that the consumer who possesses the information acquisition device S1 is requesting the product information of the A company's cheap air ticket.
"/ 6a" indicates that the information acquisition device S1 has acquired this URL from the information providing means 6a.
The consumer who has received the above-mentioned URL from the information providing means 6a concentrates information transmission described in “http://www.kanri.co.jp” using the network connection means of the information acquisition device S1. The information processing apparatus 3500 of the business operator to be managed is accessed.
The information processing apparatus 3500 that has received the access records in the database 3510 that the information acquisition apparatus S1 has accessed by providing information of the identification number 6a of the information providing means.
Next, the connection of the information acquisition device S1 is redirected to the Web server of Company A ("Travel /").
As another implementation method, the information processing apparatus 3500 communicates with servers 351, 352, and 353 of each company in response to a request from the information acquisition apparatus S1, and provides or purchases detailed information for the information acquisition apparatus 9. Information processing such as (reservation) is performed. Alternatively, it is possible to omit communication with the servers of each company by storing the data stored in the servers of each company.
As described above, by centrally managing the information processing apparatus 3500 and the database 3510. It is possible to measure the effect of providing information such as advertisements, and to obtain useful information about marketing.
The results of processing the reach (information providing) frequency data and measuring the effect of providing information such as advertisements are shown in FIG. 3, FIG. 4 and FIG.
FIG. 3 is an information provision frequency (reach) comparison table for each information provision means.
FIG. 4 is a graph comparing the number of times of providing information (reach) for each information providing means.
It is.
FIG. 5 is a data comparison chart for information provision for each information provision means, in which the information provision is data for each commodity, and specifically, a cheap airline ticket commodity of A Travel Agency is advertised.
In the example of the figure, the data of the number of times of information provision (or the number of information provision persons) for each information provision means is visualized so that the information provision means (location), date, and contents can be compared.
Referring to this table, it is possible to quantitatively measure what kind of information providing (advertising) means has attracted the interest of consumers and when to obtain information, and further, the effect of advertising Can be measured and compared.
As described above, the information providing means is networked as shown in FIG. 2, and information processing is performed by the information processing apparatus 3500, so that the information is provided almost in real time when the information is provided, as shown in FIGS. As shown in FIG. 5, it is possible to compare the number of times of information provision (reach) for each information providing means, product, and advertisement.
An EC (Electric Commerce) function is added to the information processing apparatus 3500 and the server 301 described above, and the information acquisition apparatus communicates with the server 301 via the information processing apparatus 3500 to obtain detailed product information. It is also possible to perform information processing such as product reservation and purchase. Of course, if the information acquisition apparatus has a settlement means, it is possible to settle on the spot.
Since there are many applications for the EC (electric commerce) function in the server 301, a detailed description is omitted.
In addition, as a method of performing payment with a general-purpose information acquisition device that can realize the information acquisition device of the present invention, a method using infrared rays (IrFm) or the like can be used from IrDa (infrared communication data organization). It has already been proposed. IrFm published by IrDa (payment method using a mobile terminal using infrared rays) can be referred to on the Internet.
[Reference 2]
http: // www. irda. org / FMPAY / FM_Webpage. html
Further, as shown in FIG. 6, the information providing means may be realized by sales means such as a show window.
As described above, the information processing apparatus may store and visualize activities such as information acquisition from the information providing means by the information acquisition apparatus, access to the information processing apparatus 3500 and the server 301, and product purchases. I can do it.
In FIGS. 7 and 8, how many information acquisition devices for each information providing means have reached the provided information, accessed the information processing device 3500, and further purchased (reserved) products? The number and comparison are shown in a table and a graph.
As described above, the reach to the information providing means, the access to the information processing apparatus, the real number and the rate of reservation (purchase), and the respective actions are shown for each installation location of each information providing means. You can know the number of times.
Referring to this table, it is quantitatively measured what kind of information providing (advertisement advertisement) means has attracted the interest of the consumer at what place, when and how much. In addition, it is possible to compare whether access and purchase have been led (effects on consumption behavior of each advertisement).
<Information processing device that acquires consumer attribute information>
Furthermore, if the information processing apparatus 3500 can know the attributes (gender, age, occupation, etc.) of the consumer who has made reach (information acquisition), access or purchase (reservation), the information processing apparatus. The 3500 can also be useful for industrial activities.
Conventionally, consumer attribute information is obtained by using a membership card and a membership card management system, or by inputting consumer attribute information information on a server on the Internet and giving an ID or password. Methods such as managing information in a database have been taken.
It is also possible to use the MAC (device identification code) address or telephone number of the information acquisition device as the ID of the information acquisition device.
By using these methods in the present invention, an ID or password such as a membership number is given to an information acquisition device or a consumer who has the information acquisition device in advance and stored in the database 3510 for information acquisition. It is possible to check the attribute information of the information provider by recording the database 3510 and assigning the ID by inputting the ID and password when connecting to the information processing apparatus 3500.
In addition, it is also possible to embed an ID in the connection program of the information acquisition apparatus, the information processing apparatus confirms the ID at the time of connection, and assigns the ID of the database 3510 and the attribute information.
By confirming the attributes of the information acquirer (the person who owns the information acquisition apparatus), storing it in the information processing apparatus, and processing the information. Specifically, as shown in FIGS. 9, 10, and 11, it is possible to know the consumer attribute that performs the reach, access, and reservation (purchase) actions for each information providing unit.
FIG. 9 is a table showing the number of times of reaching each information providing means and the sex and age of the consumers who have reached the information.
FIG. 10 and FIG. 11 are graphs showing the number of times of reach and the sex and age of the consumers who have been reached for each information providing means that advertises S cosmetics.
In this way, if information processing is performed by comparing the price of the place or medium (information provision) where the information provision means is installed and the attributes of the consumers who have made reach, access, or reservation (purchase), information processing will depend It can contribute to effective industrial activities by analyzing trends and in which media advertising is most effective. In addition, it is possible to determine what kind of information (advertisement advertisement) method has reached what kind of attribute, and has generated access / purchase.
As described above, the present invention provides a reference for quantitatively determining whether or not information provision (advertisement) has achieved the desired effect in the real world, and provides the information provision (advertisement) method, advertisement place, It makes it possible to judge qualitatively how the characters used will affect consumer behavior.
Furthermore, the handling of personal information of consumers as described above is a very big problem in today's information society. Therefore, in the present invention, an individual as shown in FIG. 12 is specified. It can also handle consumer attribute information that cannot.
One of the objects of the present invention is to largely grasp the tendency of the entire market (market), and the consumer attribute information necessary for such an object does not need to specify an individual person. Obtain sufficient information processing output for measuring the effectiveness of information provision, marketing, hypothesis verification, etc. for gender, general age (for example, 5 years old), general occupation, general address, etc. Is possible.
<Information device apparatus characterized by storing and visualizing and analyzing information including position information of information characteristic means in identification information of information providing means>
[0110] Further, by including information about the position where each information providing means exists in the information provided to the information acquisition device, more effective information processing can be performed by the information processing device.
For example, as an example of information that can specify the position, a GIO (Geo) code (a place on the earth coded based on latitude and longitude information) can be used. The GIO code describes the location where each information providing means exists, transmits information to the information acquisition device, and transmits the GIO code together when the information acquisition device is connected to the information processing device. Thus, the information processing apparatus can perform information processing including the position information of the information providing means.
A specific example of the GIO code is shown. For example, when the information providing means is installed in “Nishi 13 Kita 1-1, Obihiro-shi, Hokkaido”, the position is “Y (latitude) = 143.18623”. , X (longitude) = 42.929215 ”. When another information providing means is installed in “2-2-2 Kamiyacho, Naka-ku, Hiroshima, Hiroshima Prefecture”, “Y (latitude) = 132.45915, X (longitude) = 34.390308” Uniquely represented by the code that says.
Information on the installation location of the information providing means can be transmitted to the information acquisition device and the information processing device by such a method that the GIO code is described together as two-dimensional barcode data.
Naturally, by storing the GIO code and the unique identification information of each information providing means in advance in a state that can be assigned to the database 3510 or the like, only the unique identification information is obtained from the information providing means. It is also possible to allocate the position of the information providing means by the information processing apparatus.
When the information processing device specifies the position of the information providing means, the information processing result can be visualized on the map information system.
Specifically, the information processing apparatus 3500 is given the function of a map information system. Data related to information provision and / or information processing of the information providing means and the information acquisition device is processed and visualized on the map information system attached to the information processing device 3500.
If necessary, how to reach advertisements in the actual market by displaying on a monitor (not shown) or printing from a printer (not shown), etc. In addition, it will be possible to visualize how consumer interests in the market change very effectively.
As for the map information system, a method for displaying various data on the map data has already been disclosed.
[Reference 3]
JP-A-5-242162
[Reference 4]
JP-A-10-63182
[Reference 5]
JP 2001-350909 A
[Reference 6]
JP 2001-344328 A
By visualizing the information provision effect related to the information provision means on the map information system, a market useful for industrial activities that would have been difficult to obtain without large scale market research. You will be able to obtain various knowledge about the in real time.
<Consumer behavior analysis>
For example, FIG. 13 shows an example of the information providing status of the information providing means on the map. Information providing means is installed at the center of each pie chart. The pie chart is a graph classified by attribute of the consumer who has the information acquisition device that has reached the information provided by the information providing means, and represents the ratio by the attribute of the consumer that has reached the pie chart.
As shown in FIG. 13, it is possible to know in what kind of place the information providing means is installed and which attribute tends to obtain the reach of the consumer.
Furthermore, if time-dependent data such as morning, night, and day of the week is accumulated in the database 3510 and the information processing apparatus shortens the time and displays it on a map as a moving image, the time It becomes possible to intuitively grasp the change in the information provision tendency between the information provision means and the consumer depending on the day of the week and the consumer.
A large amount of such time-series information provision data and / or information processing data and / or consumer attribute data is accumulated in a long-term database 3510, and the time axis and local scale are appropriately set. By processing and displaying a moving image on the map information system, it becomes possible to dynamically visualize changes in consumer interest in the actual market, which has been difficult until now.
Furthermore, in the example of FIG. 14, the number of reach of the information providing means advertising the same product is represented by color on the map information system.
Each small circle is the place where the information providing means is installed. This visual processing makes it easy to compare the reach effect of the information providing means.
FIG. 15 is an example of a diagram in which the same data as FIG. 14 is visualized in a wide area on a high-scale map. This visualization process makes it possible to know in real time what kind of products and information the consumer is interested in depending on the region.
In the example of FIG. 15, a high numerical reach is recorded in Saitama Prefecture for providing information on the same product. In contrast, Chiba Prefecture has recorded a fairly low reach for providing information on the same product.
Thus, from such visualization processing data by the information processing apparatus, it can be inferred that the interest in this product is relatively higher in Saitama Prefecture than in Chiba Prefecture.
In other words, it is possible to know the regional disparity of interest of consumers from the reach number for the information providing means.
By processing data output from such an information processing apparatus, marketing research, which has previously been difficult to conduct a detailed survey without enormous costs and time, can be performed in real time at a relatively low cost. Will be able to.
Furthermore, based on the processing data output of such an information processing apparatus, it is possible to make a marketing hypothesis in a short period from planning of various products and services to production and sales. Can be expected.
Furthermore, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of marketing hypotheses, which has been difficult in the past.
Further, as described above, by comparing the data of FIG. 15 in time series such as hour, day, week, month, year, etc., it is possible to know the transition of the interests of consumers in each region. . Specifically, if the daily data is 1 second and the data for one year is displayed as a moving image, the transition of consumer interest in a certain region in 365 seconds can be visualized.
In other words, it is possible to visualize and analyze how the fashion spreads from the urban area to the peripheral area based on actual numerical data.
There has been almost no mechanism for visualizing such a large-scale and realistic social phenomenon almost in real time.
As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to visualize the dynamics of social phenomena that have been difficult to grasp in the past, such as trends in consumer interest or trends in each region.
In addition, by visualizing and analyzing changes in consumer preferences over time, it is possible to observe the appearance of epidemic occurring in the urban area and propagating to the surrounding area, or the disappearance of the epidemic. I can do it.
Further, if the consumer attributes are analyzed simultaneously as described above, a certain attribute (for example, a young female group) will have a fashion for a certain product, and interest will be transmitted to consumers of other attributes. You can observe how you do or do not.
That is, it is possible to visualize the preferences and needs and changes of the products and services, and to visualize the preferences and needs and changes of each consumer attribute.
Then, by applying various analysis methods to the information processing apparatus 3500, it is possible to make predictions.
In many map information systems, the 5-year-old population of residents every 1 km 2 can be calculated and processed for each region as data. By analyzing the data of the information providing means based on the resident data, it becomes possible to analyze the characteristics of each region, such as the tendency of consumers who reach the information providing means and their regional characteristics.
The present invention can also be used as a mechanism for predicting effects such as advertisements.
FIG. 16 shows the number of reach when the information providing means installed in a certain region (here in a certain prefecture) provides the content related information of a certain product at the same time on a certain day of the week. It is shown in different colors by municipality. The region with the highest reach is shown in the darkest color.
In other words. It can be said that this is a visualization of the disparity of the number of consumers reaching the content-related information of such products by municipality. At this time, the reach number of the municipalities where the information providing means does not exist is zero.
By accumulating such analysis results, various statistical methods well known in the art are used. You can find out the consumer's interest tendency by municipality.
Various methods have been proposed for predicting a certain tendency using a statistical method, such as JP-A-2002-342557, JP-A-2002-230121, and JP-A-2002-163434. .
Therefore, by using these prediction methods, when the information provider or advertisement provider provides information related to a certain product or service at a certain time zone in a certain region, how much reach or information is provided. It is possible to predict whether an effect can be obtained.
FIG. 17 shows the predicted numerical values displayed on a map. By using such prediction data, a provider of products, services, and information such as companies can provide products, services, and information more accurately to the needs of consumers.
As described above, it is difficult in the past because the information processing apparatus collects and analyzes transactions performed between the information mediating means in the ubiquitous environment such as the information providing means and the information acquiring apparatus possessed by the user. Various information processing can be performed almost in real time.
<Information processing system for analyzing social phenomena using nonlinear equations>
Furthermore, as described above, not only the record of transaction processing performed between the information mediating means in the ubiquitous environment such as the information providing means and the information acquisition device possessed by the user, Analyzing the mechanism of various dynamic social phenomena such as epidemic propagation phenomenon by processing data of data collection / processing system such as sales system with the information processing device according to the present invention Can be made possible.
At this time, not only the record of transaction processing performed between the information mediating means in the ubiquitous environment such as the information providing means as described above and the information acquisition device possessed by the user, but also the POS (point Data of a data collection / processing system such as an OBS system can be stored in the database 3510 and processed by the information processing apparatus 3500.
Hereinafter, as described above, the record data of the processing performed between the information mediating means in the ubiquitous environment such as the information providing means and the information acquisition device possessed by the user is described in the statistics as described above. An information processing system capable of analyzing a complicated dynamic social phenomenon such as a trendy propagation phenomenon by performing information processing using a method other than the conventional method is an information processing apparatus 3500. The method of mounting is described below.
In addition, the information processing system according to the present invention only records data of processing performed between the information mediating means in the ubiquitous environment such as the information providing means as described above and the information acquiring apparatus possessed by the user. The information processing device 3500 processes data of a data collection / processing system such as a POS (Point of Sales) system, or an information mediating means in a ubiquitous environment and an information acquisition device possessed by the user. It is also possible to analyze social phenomena as the relationship of various factors by integrally processing both the recording data and the POS data of the processing performed between the two.
The information processing system as described above gives an overview of the movements and changes in society and the market, where the government and companies obtain knowledge about the society and the market. Build hypotheses about the laws and factors that drive society and markets, and perform simulations based on those hypotheses. It is possible to meet the needs such as evaluating the correctness of the hypotheses of the laws and factors that move the society and the market by comparing the simulation result with the actual movements of the society and the market.
This information processing system has the following effects.
Intuitive understanding of the phenomena occurring in society and the market is promoted by the marketers and decision makers of the government and companies.
By visualizing the behavior of complex phenomena with animation, it is possible to promote intuitive estimation and prediction by decision makers in the field.
<System configuration example>
An information processing system that analyzes a phenomenon involving large-scale data as a nonlinear phenomenon can be realized as a combination of the following means, for example.
Means for collecting data necessary for the analysis of the phenomenon;
Means for converting phenomenon data into a format that can be processed;
Means for visualizing the converted data; means for recognizing the pattern of the visualized phenomenon;
Means for storing the pattern of the recognized phenomenon and means for extracting the pattern of the approximate phenomenon by comparing the patterns of the stored phenomenon
Means for selecting and setting an equation describing the pattern of the phenomenon from the comparison result from the equations stored in advance;
If there is no equation describing the phenomenon, means for setting a new equation;
Means for setting each parameter of the equation;
A means for performing a simulation for predicting a phenomenon based on the set equations and parameters and the collected data;
Means for visualizing the result of the prediction simulation;
Means for comparing the latest data with the phenomenon simulated based on the equation common to the pattern and / or parameters of the phenomenon searched or generated
Of the above-described means, one function can be used as a plurality of means for the same function.
Among the above-mentioned means, each means is combined in accordance with the required information processing, the social phenomenon is visualized as it is, the factors that change the phenomenon are extracted, and the change of the phenomenon is simulated based on the extracted factors. Provides an information processing system that provides an intuitive overview of complex phenomena such as social phenomena by repeatedly visualizing simulation results, ascertains the factors that have a major impact on the changes, and predicts the changes in those phenomena I can do it.
As an information processing system for analyzing social phenomena as nonlinear phenomena by combining the above-described means, an information apparatus system for analyzing marketing phenomena will be described below with reference to the drawings.
FIG. 18 shows an outline of the information processing system as a block diagram.
The database in the figure is an information storage device 3510 that stores data associated with information provision by the information providing device, and data storage means (specifically, a database or the like) such as a POS system or a GIS system. Reference numeral 1000 denotes data collection means, 1100 denotes visualization means, 1200 denotes parameter extraction means, and 1300 denotes phenomenon simulation means.
FIG. 19 is a block diagram showing the flow of processing on the information processing system described above.
Further, FIG. 24 is a flowchart showing the data collection process. FIG. 25 is a flowchart showing the visualization, parameter extraction, and simulation processes. FIG. 25 is a flowchart showing the parameter verification operation.
Next, the mechanism of the system will be described with reference to a data flow diagram and a block diagram showing details of each means.
<Data collection means>
First, FIG. 20 is a block diagram of the data collecting means. The data collection means includes a data collection module, a data format engine, and a data storage unit.
The data collection module collects data possessed by the information providing system, such as the location of information providing means and the number of times of information provision, from a database 3510 that centrally manages records relating to the information providing system using queries and scripts.
At this time, not only the information from the information providing system but also the actual sales data from the POS system and the data of the amount of advertisement dropped from other than the information providing system such as TVCM and newspaper advertisement may be inputted.
Further, the installation location of the information providing apparatus is plotted on the XY coordinates on the two-dimensional plane by using the address coordinate conversion function of GIS (Map Information System).
Furthermore, the GIS (map information system) nationwide is divided into 500m rectangles, and various information in the mesh, total population, population by sex and age, average annual income, number of stores, store sales It is possible to collect map attribute information such as FIG. 28 and FIG. 29.
Further, the data format engine converts the data collected from each system into a format that can be processed by an information processing system such as visual means.
At this time, the data is based on three-dimensional coordinates including two-dimensional and time axes on the map, and the attributes of each data are arranged in a format that expands on the coordinates, and stored in the data storage unit.
The data collection means collects information providing system data, advertisement drop data, POS data, and GIS data, so that any attribute, age, gender, occupation, income, How many people live (map information system).
What kind of advertisements are dropped there (advertising drops such as TVCM).
What kind of information people are interested in (what information was accessed from the information providing system / information providing apparatus).
Then, it is possible to make data which is a combination of data in line with the market flow such as what kind of product is purchased by whom and where (POS system).
<Visualization means>
FIG. 21 is a block diagram of the visualization means. The visualization means includes a data input unit, a visualization (video data generation) module, an operation module, and a video data output unit.
The data input unit is based on the three-dimensional coordinates including the two-dimensional and time axes on the map accumulated in the data collecting means, and aligns the attributes of each data in a format that expands the coordinates. Data collected from the system is input and sent to the visualization (video data generation) module to visualize changes in the data over time as animations.
As a specific example, the information provision status, the advertisement dropping status, the product sales status, etc. on the 3D coordinates obtained by adding the time change to the 2D coordinates of the whole country (map) equivalent to the GIS system divided into 500m meshes. Visualize various data changes in the market (on the map) as various data changes (phenomena).
When visualizing a visualization phenomenon along the time axis by animation, various time axes that make it easy to capture the change of the phenomenon, for example, a change for one day is displayed in one second, for one year. It is possible to perform temporal compression, such as displaying the transition of this phenomenon in 6 minutes.
The visualization (video data generation) module includes visualization engines such as a mesh drawing engine, a contour calculation engine, a particle calculation engine, a vector calculation engine, and a shading calculation engine.
The visualization (video data generation) module can also be implemented with existing natural science phenomenon visualization software, such as fluid visualization software that exists in the past.
The animation data generated by the visualization (video data generation) module is converted into a data format suitable for the display device by the video data output unit.
The animation data can be viewed on the monitor as it is, and the video data output unit converts it into a format that can be processed by the GIS system (for example, animation JPEG) and re-inputs it to the GIS system. It is also possible to see the map layer and the map attribute information layer.
<Parameter (factor) extraction means>
FIG. 22 is a block diagram of parameter (factor) extracting means.
The parameter (factor) extraction means includes a pattern recognition module, an equation setting module, a parameter setting module, an equation storage selection module, a parameter input module, and a parameter set storage unit.
The processing process of the parameter (factor) extraction means starts with the pattern of the data that is accumulated by the pattern recognition module in the data storage section of the data collection means and the pattern of the animation image that visualizes the data as a time-series phenomenon. Recognize pattern features.
As a pattern recognition method, a pattern of a natural phenomenon is stored in advance in a pattern recognition module.
Specific examples of the pattern include, for example, a laminar flow pattern, a Kalman flow pattern, a turbulent flow pattern, and the like. The Ising model, which is a magnetic model, includes thermodynamic patterns such as thermal diffusion patterns and advection patterns, patterns of changes to thermal equilibrium, and patterns of non-equilibrium (dissipative behavior) phenomena. The pattern of phase transition in, and the pattern of percolation in the percolation model can be considered.
As a method of comparing the stored pattern with the phenomenon pattern of the collected data, a method of measuring the similarity of the image by reading the image pattern output from the visualization means and calculating the fractal dimension of the image Another possible method is to extract the visual features of an image by visual data mining the video. Furthermore, a method of recognizing a specific pattern by visually recognizing an animation image output from a visualization means by a human is also possible.
As a result of pattern recognition, when a visualized phenomenon such as a Kalman flow pattern or a turbulent flow pattern is recognized, this phenomenon may be analyzed and simulated by a hydrodynamic model.
Therefore, for example, an equation describing a hydrodynamic model is set as an equation describing a phenomenon from the equation setting module.
The equations describing the hydrodynamic model are, for example, the Navier-Stokes equation or the advection diffusion equation as a modification thereof. Details of these equations will be described later.
The set equations are stored in the equation memory selection module, and can be automatically selected simultaneously with pattern recognition by associating (associating) with a specific pattern.
Furthermore, the equations describing the phenomena are not only natural science equations or equations selected by pattern recognition, but, for example, equations based on existing economic hypotheses and marketing hypotheses, equations derived from existing statistical analysis methods, etc. It is also possible to set from the equation setting module.
In addition, since the equation memory selection module stores previously set equations as equations describing the phenomenon, these equations can be arbitrarily selected.
An equation is selected by the equation memory selection module in which the phenomenon is described by the above-described method or the phenomenon is supposed to be described.
Here, a specific example will be given by taking a hydrodynamic equation as an example.
Fluid dynamics uses Navier-Stokes equations (nonlinear equations) describing various fluid phenomena as governing equations, and flows of liquids, gases and powders, specifically laminar flow as a linear flow, chaotic The turbulent flow as a simple flow is also described.
Fluid mechanics has been studied for many years, and there are many achievements in analyzing fluid phenomena by applying the Naviestokes equation.
Furthermore, the words used in the actual economy and management have a way of understanding and expressing the phenomenon of society and market as a flow,
For example, in economic phenomena, economic waves, trends, trends, etc., and in management, the flow of people, goods and money, the flow of information, the flow of technology and knowledge, the flow of value, and even the supply chain and process, Expressions such as upstream and downstream are typical.
In this way, in the real world field, the idea of understanding the phenomenon as a dynamic flow has taken root, and the method of capturing the phenomenon hydrodynamically is easy to be familiar with the field.
Reference 1: Navier Stokes equation

Next, in the parameter input module, parameters for each term of the selected equation are input.
As a specific example, the Navier Stokes equation, which is the governing equation of fluid dynamics, includes parameters of Re: Reynolds number (function of viscosity and density), u: velocity, p: pressure, T: temperature, K: external force. There is.
In order to fill the parameters of the equation, based on the pattern recognized by the pattern recognition module, the parameter setting module is most suitable for explaining the phenomenon among the respective parameters constituting the data collected by the data collecting means. Assign the possible parameters to each parameter in the equation.
[0210] For example, when viscosity is replaced with information propagation as a factor of a market phenomenon, for example, it is conceivable to replace it as the difference between information being transmitted (flowing) quickly and flowing slowly (flowing) in the market. The density is considered to be the density of the target population within a certain area (eg 500 mesh).
[0211]
Pressure can be thought of as the amount of information that affects purchasing decisions. Specific examples include purchasing a large number of advertisements in TV commercials and newspaper magazines, strong promotions closely associated with the local community, and very favorable features on TV programs. The amount of information that influences the will is considered as pressure.
Further, there is an advection diffusion equation describing movement and diffusion of heat as a modification of the Navier-Stokes equation. The advection diffusion equation has parameters of f: advection velocity function, v: diffusion coefficient, u: velocity, p: pressure.
Examples of parameters that seem to be optimal for explaining the phenomenon using the advection diffusion equation are as follows: For example, the advection velocity function is a function that varies depending on the characteristics of the product and region.
[0214] The diffusion coefficient is a function of the price difference with competing products, the speed is the share of the merchandise store in the mesh that controls the sales speed, and the pressure can be applied to the amount of advertisement dropped or the amount of information provided from the information providing device. Conceivable.

Reference 2: Advection diffusion equation
In addition, the natural science equation has other parameters called initial conditions and boundary conditions. However, when describing marketing phenomena, the initial condition input is completely zero (in the case of a new product, the product is marketed). Or the distribution of the actual amount of merchandise at a certain point in time as an initial condition, or the distribution is assumed to be uniform. Regarding the boundary condition, in this embodiment, in order to calculate the development of the phenomenon on the two-dimensional map, a method of defining each of the four sides as the boundary condition can be considered.
In addition to the models and equations based on the natural science as described above, the data collected by the data collection module for each parameter of the equation based on the existing economic hypothesis and marketing hypothesis, or based on the experience of the operator. It is also possible to combine these parameters.
In addition to natural science models and equations, when parameters are filled based on economic hypotheses and marketing hypotheses, factors that are considered to be closely related to the phenomenon or that influence the market phenomenon Is applied to each term based on a hypothesis.
With the above method, the equation storage setting module and the parameter input module output the assumed equation and parameter set, and store them in the parameter set storage unit.
At this time, the equation storage setting module and the parameter input module are based on a pattern recognition result and a hypothesis, and a plurality of equations and parameter sets (= parameter sets 1, 2,.・ N) can be output.
By inputting this plurality of parameter sets (= the laws that move the phenomenon and the hypothesis set of the relationship between the factors) into the prediction simulation module and simulating, the extent of the hypotheses and the assumed equations and parameters can be determined. You can check if you are explaining.
<Prediction simulation means>
FIG. 23 is a block diagram of the prediction simulation means.
The parameter (factor) extraction means outputs a plurality of equations with different conditions and parameter sets (= parameter sets 1, 2,... N) assumed to describe the phenomenon as calculation condition files in the calculation condition file input section. Input and use as a set of simulation calculation equations and parameters.
Furthermore, past performance data is input from the collecting means as simulation calculation data.
The simulation calculation module uses a past data and a calculation condition file to each of a plurality of equations and parameter sets (= parameter sets 1, 2,... N) that are assumed to describe a phenomenon. The simulation of the prediction of the phenomenon is performed.
A plurality of simulation result files (for example, 30 for one month with one day as a unit) are output as a situation prediction file of phenomena along the time axis.
The simulation calculation module performs a prediction simulation of a phenomenon for each of a plurality of equations and parameter sets (= parameter sets 1, 2,. Generate a file.
The generated simulation result file is summarized in time series for each parameter set as a file in which the phenomenon is predicted by changing the conditions, stored in the simulation result file output unit, and whether the phenomenon is similar to the natural phenomenon or not. It is also possible to receive a thermodynamic check by the phenomenon check unit. The thermodynamic check will be described later.
The file stored in the simulation result file output unit is visualized as an animation predicting a phenomenon (for example, for one month) by the visualizing means.
Since actual social and market phenomena are phenomena in which many factors interact in a complex manner, the balance of each factor is considered to have a large effect on the transition of the phenomenon, so parameters (factors) are extracted. Is a very difficult task.
By using each means of the present invention, an equation for explaining the phenomenon, a plurality of parameter sets in which the weight of the interaction between the parameters and the parameters (factors) are changed, and prediction simulation corresponding to various parameter sets are made. By doing this, we can obtain a lot of knowledge about the behavior of changes in phenomena.
For example, when a company actually uses the present invention, what is particularly important in the simulation is a change in the behavior of a phenomenon with respect to a change in a parameter. Specifically, a parameter that changes the behavior of a phenomenon by changing the parameter slightly. The other is the behavior of a phenomenon that hardly changes even when various parameters are changed.
In marketing, the former is a very careful parameter because a few mistakes can have a big effect on the result, and it is a factor that needs to be determined over time and effort. Since the latter is considered to be a stable phenomenon regardless of the parameter selection, it is understood that the danger of spending management resources such as meetings and decision-making on such a phenomenon should be avoided.
<Parameter verification work>
A number of equations and parameter sets (= parameter sets 1, 2,... N) under different conditions that are assumed to describe a phenomenon are expressed as equations describing the phenomenon and parameters explaining the change of the phenomenon. Various methods can be considered as a method for verifying whether or not it is correct, but two methods will be described as examples of the embodiment.
After predictive simulation of the change in the phenomenon (for example, for one month), both the actual (for example, for one month) phenomenon data are visualized and compared, and the pattern closest to the change in the actual phenomenon is patterned. By extracting the recognition module. Let the parameter set equations and parameters be parameter sets that describe the phenomenon.
<Specific examples of visualization>
In order to facilitate the recognition of the phenomenon pattern (features), the animation that visualized the prediction simulation has, for example, a parameter corresponding to pressure and a parameter corresponding to density on a 500 m mesh matrix. It may be possible to display the time-series changes of each parameter with animation by displaying the color shades.
Furthermore, the difference between the forecast and the actual sales volume may be displayed with a color density, or only the region or time series in which the forecast and the actual sales volume are significantly different may be highlighted.
<Significance of applying the natural science model>
As a method for explaining social and market phenomena, the reason why the model and the laws and equations in natural science are applied will be explained from three aspects: problems, effects, and means for practical use.
As a problem, in social science research, the question of whether social phenomena have laws or what kind of laws has been discussed for many years.
In particular, from the importance given to society, the laws in economic phenomena and their applications are regarded as very important.
Conventionally, since social phenomena are generally different from natural phenomena and greatly influenced by human values and behavior, it has been considered that they are essentially different from ordinary natural phenomena. For this reason, many attempts have been made to analyze social phenomena based on psychological theories (hypotheses).
However, at the present time when changes in social phenomena are becoming rapid, the results of analysis and prediction using conventional analysis techniques are inconsistent with actual economic phenomena. The problem is that the system cannot function effectively and causes great disruption in society.
On the other hand, some researchers have proposed the theory (hypothesis) that there is a phenomenon found in natural phenomena in social phenomena such as economic phenomena.
For example, as Ivan Prigogin, who won the Nobel Prize for his research on the non-equilibrium phenomenon that is the basis for understanding the self-organization phenomenon, mentioned in "Order from Chaos (Misuzu Shobo)" Researchers think that there are phenomena similar to natural phenomena in social phenomena such as economic phenomena.
Many social science researchers have proposed the theory (hypothesis) that it is difficult to predict because there are chaotic phenomena often seen in natural phenomena.
The chaotic phenomenon is a phenomenon that can be described by a simple equation such as turbulent flow in a fluid flow and is very difficult to predict despite being deterministic.
However, no technical means existed in the past to verify whether these social phenomena have phenomena similar to natural scientific phenomena.
[Reference 3]
I. Prigodin Stanger 1984 Order from Chaos Misuzu Shobo
By applying the present invention to the problems as described above, it becomes possible to verify whether or not there is actually a phenomenon similar to a natural phenomenon in a social phenomenon.
If it is possible to describe with the models and equations of natural science that has been researched for many years, not only can we obtain great knowledge about the nature of social phenomena, but also the changes in society and market. It becomes possible to perform detailed simulations using equations, and there is a possibility that human understanding of social phenomena and the social structure itself will greatly advance.
Furthermore, logical understanding of social and market movements and changes can also help to minimize social and economic disruptions.
As a means for practical use, the above-mentioned information processing system according to the present invention is used to analyze social phenomena, so that the laws of the natural science correspond to the laws of natural science. A means for clarifying whether or not exists is provided.
Specifically, it is checked whether the phenomenon simulated by the assumed equations and parameters satisfies the first law of thermodynamics: the law of conservation of energy.
If the condition is satisfied, it is checked whether the first law of thermodynamics: the law of entropy increase is satisfied.
If neither rule is satisfied, it can be said that this phenomenon is basically not a natural scientific phenomenon. If both laws are satisfied, this phenomenon may be a natural scientific phenomenon.
Whether the simulated phenomenon has chaotic behavior can be confirmed by directly checking the simulation result file, by recognizing the time-series behavior of the visualized phenomenon, or by the user visually recognizing it. You can check if it is a chaotic phenomenon.
<Idoma Theory Model>
As a specific example using the equations and parameters as described above, as information that prompts the purchase of a product as a factor that influences the sales amount of a product as a market phenomenon, it is a fluid about advertisements, word-of-mouth, the amount dropped, and the strength. Establishing a hypothesis in accordance with the dynamic model, simulating the phenomenon according to the hypothesis, and comparing the actual sales volume with the correct amount of the hypothesis, that is, how much influence the factor assumed to influence the phenomenon actually affects the phenomenon Explain the methodology of knowing what to give.
There is a famous marketing theory (hypothesis) called AIDMA (idoma) regarding the relationship between the sales volume of goods and information. This is the theory that consumption behavior can be stimulated by providing information to consumers.
Specifically, the Idoma theory propagates information about a product to consumers through advertisements and word-of-mouth, and performs Attention: Attention, Interest: Interest, Desire: Desire, Memory: Recall, and Action: It is a theory that explains the stage of purchasing behavior.
[0256] Based on this Idoma theory, companies actually spend a huge amount of money to drop advertisements and appeal their services and products to consumers.
When this idler theory is modeled, it can be expressed, for example, as a model and equation as shown in FIG.
Furthermore, there are many elements as information for prompting the purchase of goods.
According to “Word-of-mouth Survey 2002” (2003), “TV” (43.3%) is followed by “word-of-mouth” (34.7%) in the decision to purchase, but the Internet and e-mail are recognized. Although it is a cause of interest, it is still less than 10% in the decision to purchase, and it has not yet become a powerful information source.
However, with the exception of some foods, general merchandise does not cover the entire population. In other words, there is a prospective user who purchases the product. For example, men who are over 20 years old are the main prospective users in the case of beer, and women from young to middle age are the main prospective users in the case of cosmetics.
[0260] In a company where a model in which promotions such as advertisements are performed so as to effectively deliver product information to these prospective users, and as a result, purchase behavior is induced and sales volume increases is actually being carried out. It is a sales strategy.
That is, in order to calculate a phenomenon based on the Idoma model, it is first necessary to clarify how much a potential user of a product is present in which region.
Therefore, according to the national census conducted once every five years using the map attribute data of GIS (Map Information System), the whole of Japan is divided into rectangles of 500m x 500m. , You can know how many people in each occupation live, and the difference between daytime and nighttime population.
Further, as map attribute data of GIS (Map Information System), the average annual income in each rectangle estimated from the tax revenue in each rectangle, the number of commercial facilities in each rectangle by the commercial statistics survey, You can know the average area and sales.
FIG. 28 is a diagram in which the Tokyo metropolitan area is divided into rectangles of 500 m × 500 m, and the total population in each rectangle is displayed by color. The figure which displayed the number according to the color is shown.
Here, a model (hypothesis) for deriving the sales volume from the information propagation described above is expressed as an equation.
[0266]
Sales volume = Purchase behavior volume = Purchase target population X Purchase rate
[0267]
Purchasing rate = (macro information transmission (mass advertising) + micro information transmission (word-of-mouth))
In order to simulate this phenomenon, the parameter setting means of the parameter (factor) extraction means is used to set the parameter to the Navier Stokes equation or the advection diffusion equation using the parameter setting means of the parameter (factor) extraction means. Set.
Next, an equation for calculating sales prediction is set from the purchase target population of each mesh and the amount of information transmission (information provision amount and advertisement drop amount from the information provision system).
Specifically, an advection diffusion equation for calculating the information transmission amount of the product is created, the metropolitan area is divided into rectangles of 500 m × 500 m, and the information transmission amount for encouraging purchase in each rectangle is calculated to calculate the sales forecast amount. calculate.
<Application of the present invention>
The information processing apparatus according to the present invention can be used not only as a single unit but also as a component for causing a machine such as a computer to analyze and predict in various complex forms such as social phenomena. Is possible.
Specifically, by positioning the present invention as a basic tool for visualization and simulation of complex social phenomena. Functions can be expanded by incorporating various models and tools.
[0273]
Examples of linked tools include a CRM (customer relationship) system and an ERP (enterprise resource planning) system as sales strategy formulation and execution tools, in addition to the POS system and GIS system.
Furthermore, in order to realize the advanced use of the system of the present invention in cooperation with game theory, neuronet, etc., which models mutual relations with competing products.
Can be considered.
Naturally, related applications such as a cooperating system can use the functions of the present invention to realize more socially demanding applications and advanced applications.
Further, the information processing apparatus 3500 may be composed of a single unit or a plurality of units. That is, the information processing apparatus 3500 and the database 3510 may be configured with only a single computer connected to the network.
Further, the information processing apparatus 3500 and / or the database 3510 may be configured by combining a plurality of computers.
Further, each means may be mounted on separate hardware (computer) and used in combination. Furthermore, the calculation processing time can be shortened by performing data calculation on a GIS mesh having a relatively large calculation processing amount or calculation of a nonlinear equation with a parallel computer.
Also, the output of information processing according to the present invention, that is, the analysis of complex phenomena such as social phenomena, visualization, pattern and / or parameter extraction, and the result of generating equations describing the phenomenon are used by humans. In addition, it can be applied to information processing devices such as computers that learn knowledge, meanings, trends, and backgrounds of complex phenomena such as social phenomena and process social phenomena by calculation.
In recent years, many attempts have been made to assist various human activities with an information processing apparatus such as a computer.
However, what was very difficult at that time was that an information processing device such as a computer could calculate the social background (context) that actually exists as the basis of human activity, behavior and behavior. There is a problem that it is very difficult to supply as a difficult parameter.
For example, a service for recommending information and products that a consumer is likely to be interested in by processing information collection activities and purchase activity records of a consumer is being put into practical use. However, in order to process information on the social background that has a great influence on human behavior, it is necessary to convert the social background itself into a format that can be processed (calculated).
However, social phenomenon data is collected in real-time and in real-time form, analyzed in a way that fully reflects the complexity of social phenomena, and the social background itself is processed (calculated). It has been difficult to build a means for converting to a possible format.
However, as described above, if the information processing apparatus of the present invention is used, an output obtained by analyzing a complicated phenomenon such as a social phenomenon can be directly used for calculation by a computer.
For this reason, the information processing apparatus according to the present invention is not only used alone, but also configured to allow a machine such as a computer to recognize a complicated phenomenon such as a social phenomenon, which has been difficult in the past. It can be used as an element.
Various hypotheses in social science applications and sociology can be verified by the present invention.
<Business Model of Apparatus, Method, and System Related to the Present Invention>
A method for charging the information provider and a method for providing incentives to consumers who exchange information according to the present invention in order to generate an operational benefit for the operator of the information processing apparatus according to the present invention will be described. .
[0288] When the above-described information provision (acquisition) mechanism is actually performed as a business, a business model that covers costs for system construction and operation is necessary.
[0289] In addition, it is preferable that some incentives exist other than simple convenience in order to allow many consumers to acquire and access information.
Therefore, when the present invention is actually carried out as a business, it is effective to provide a business model for giving and receiving money related to information provision.
Here, two examples will be described. However, various sales and profits can be created by operating the system of the present invention.
As described above, the reach (number of times of information provision) is counted from the information providing means every time the information acquisition device possessed by the consumer acquires (reach) information. A certain amount of money according to the reach (number of times of information provision) is billed as an information provision fee to the advertisement provider (company A in the figure).
Alternatively, based on the information acquired from the information providing means, the information acquisition device possessed by the consumer accesses the server of the information (advertisement) provider (Company A in the figure) (the information processing means 3500 has The information processing means 3500 charges an information (advertisement) provider (Company A in the figure) as an information provision fee according to the reach (number of times of information provision).
At this time, the return to the information acquisition device possessed by the consumer can take a means of acquiring personal attributes such as the consumer's address in advance and returning in money.
Alternatively, points that can be used on the network can be given to the ID of the information acquisition apparatus.
If the operator of the system of the present invention is the operator of the information acquisition apparatus, the information acquisition apparatus usage fee is partially offset (for example, depending on the number of times of information acquisition and access to the information provider) It is also possible to give incentives to consumers' information exchange activities by means such as partially offsetting billing for mobile phone call charges.
As specific examples, the following forms are conceivable.
When the consumer information acquisition device 9 acquires information from the information providing means 6a that advertises the company A, the system operator pays 10 yen from the company A every time information is provided to the consumer. To collect. Furthermore, the system operator pays back a certain percentage of 10 yen heard from the company A as an incentive to the consumer (information acquisition apparatus) who acquired the information.
In addition,
When a consumer who has acquired information accesses the server of company A, the system operator collects 20 yen from company A for each information provided to the consumer.
[0300] Furthermore, the system operator pays out a certain percentage of the 20 yen heard from the company A as an incentive to the consumer (information acquisition apparatus) who acquired the information.
At this time, the payback may be realized by some point system or the like, and when the system operator is a mobile phone operator or the like, the payback is realized by a method such as discounting a call charge corresponding to an incentive point. Also good.
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the present invention, an effective information providing system can be realized. Furthermore, has a method for measuring the effect of providing information such as advertisements realized and made the information provision effective? It became possible to know intuitively what kind of people the information was provided to.
[0303] A method of visualizing a phenomenon such as a fashion among consumers, which is important when providing a product or service by an advertisement or the like, has become possible.
[0304] When analyzing the market background, which is important when providing products and services through advertisements, etc., even if a linear analysis such as a statistical method can identify past trends, it knows the reasons. It was possible.
[0305] The market background, which is important when providing products and services through advertisements, is a social phenomenon involving large-scale data, and such complex phenomena can be visualized in a short time in a realistic manner. We were able to provide a means of analysis.
As described above, the present invention not only has a very high effect in providing information such as advertisements, but also knows what products and services the consumer is interested in. Furthermore, it is possible to visually overview how the consumer's interest changes over time in the consumer's attributes by region.
[0307] Social phenomena that are inherently nonlinear can be grasped nonlinearly, and social phenomena can be analyzed from an overall perspective. Encourage the discovery of phenomena such as perturbation sensitivity and path dependence that are characteristic of nonlinear systems.
Predictions with higher accuracy than static / linear statistical methods can be obtained.
Furthermore, it is not difficult to understand only by experts through visualization / animation, but social scientists and actual decision makers can make use of their experiences to intuitively understand social phenomena.
When the present invention is used as a marketing research tool in economic policy / management strategy,
In order to visualize changes in the actual market environment, it is possible to conduct surveys of consumption trends and competitive products. Also,
Policy / strategy development phase
Then, by repeating the hypothesis and verification of the present invention, the present invention can be used as a tool for performing a prediction simulation for making a more accurate policy and strategy decision making.
In the policy / strategy execution phase, the present invention is used.
It can be used as a tool for monitoring in order to visualize changes in social flows and take appropriate measures in the course of policy and strategy execution.
In the result analysis and evaluation phase, the present invention is
By visualizing the results and results of policies / strategies, the system can be used as an evaluation and analysis tool that provides suggestions for effective and efficient new policy / strategy development.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a block diagram schematically showing an information providing unit, an information acquisition apparatus, and an information processing apparatus connectable to the information acquisition apparatus via a network.
FIG. 2 is a conceptual diagram of an information providing system including an information processing apparatus.
FIG. 3 is an information provision frequency (reach) comparison table for each information provision device.
FIG. 4 is an information provision frequency (reach) comparison graph for each information provision device.
FIG. 5 is an information provision frequency (reach) comparison graph for each information provision device of A Travel Agency
FIG. 6 is a conceptual diagram of a system combining a sales apparatus and an information processing apparatus.
FIG. 7 is a consumer action comparison table for each information providing device.
FIG. 8 is a consumer action comparison graph for each information providing device.
FIG. 9: Reached consumer attribute table
FIG. 10: Reached consumer attribute graph 1
[Fig. 11] Reached consumer attribute graph 2
FIG. 12 shows an example of a consumer attribute that does not specify an individual.
FIG. 13 is an example of a diagram displaying information provision trends by region (narrow region).
FIG. 14 is an example of a diagram showing reach trends by region (wide area).
FIG. 15 is an example of a diagram displaying information provision trends by region.
FIG. 16 is an example of a diagram showing the effect of providing information by region.
FIG. 17 is an example of a diagram in which the effect of providing information is predicted and displayed by region.
FIG. 18 is a conceptual diagram of an information processing system.
FIG. 19 is a flow of information in the information processing system.
FIG. 20 Data collection means
FIG. 21 Visualization means
FIG. 22: Parameter (factor) extraction means
FIG. 23: Prediction simulation means
FIG. 24 is a data collection flowchart.
FIG. 25 is a flowchart of visualization and parameter extraction.
FIG. 26: Parameter verification work flowchart
FIG. 27: Idoma theory model
FIG. 28: GIS system screen example 1 (population distribution)
FIG. 29: GIS system screen example 2 (store distribution)
[Explanation of symbols]
300 is a network such as the Internet or telephone network,
350 is an information processing apparatus
3500 is an information processing apparatus
3510 is a database that centrally manages records related to information processing systems.
370 and 371 are mobile phone base stations or wireless relay devices such as hot spots,
375 and 376 are mobile phone or hotspot gateway servers,
S1 and S2 are information acquisition devices owned by the owner,
91 is a display of the information acquisition device,
92 is a memory of the information acquisition device,
93 is the CPU of the information acquisition device,
98 is a transmission / reception interface for short-range wireless communication of the information acquisition device;
99 is the operation unit of the information acquisition device,

Claims (6)

An information acquisition device capable of acquiring information from the information providing means;
The information processing means has information processing means that can be connected to the information acquisition device based on the information acquired from the information providing means, and the information processing means stores the result of information processing performed between the information acquisition device and the information processing means. Information processing system characterized by visualization and analysis. In the invention of claim 1,
Having information providing means having a plurality of unique identification information and a plurality of information acquisition devices;
Further, each information providing device provides information including unique identification information to the information acquisition device, and the information processing means acquires the identification information of the information providing device from the information acquisition device, whereby the information processing means An information processing system for storing, visualizing and analyzing information including unique identification information. In the invention of claim 1,
A plurality of information providing means and an information acquisition device having a plurality of unique identification information,
Further, the information processing means acquires the identification information of the information acquisition apparatus from the information acquisition apparatus, so that the information processing means stores, visualizes and analyzes information including the unique identification information of the information acquisition apparatus. system. 4. The information providing system according to claim 1, wherein the identification information unique to the information providing means includes or can be indicated by information indicating a position where the information characteristic means exists. 5. The information processing system according to claim 1, wherein the information processing means stores, visualizes and analyzes the information processing result in time series. An information processing system for visualizing and simulating phenomena, including means for collecting data necessary for analyzing the structure of the structure, means for converting the data of the phenomena into a format that can be processed, and visualizing the converted data A means for recognizing the pattern of the visualized phenomenon, a means for storing the pattern of the recognized phenomenon, a means for comparing the patterns of the stored phenomenon and extracting an approximate phenomenon pattern, and a phenomenon from the result of the comparison If there is no means to select and set an equation that describes the pattern from pre-stored equations and an equation to describe the phenomenon, a new means to set the equation and a means to set each parameter of the equation are set Visualize the means of predictive simulation of phenomena based on equations, parameters, and collected data, and the results of predictive simulation The information processing system comprising a phenomenon which is simulated on the basis of common equations in the pattern and / or parameters of the search or generated phenomenon means, any or all of the means for comparing latest data.

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