JP2003256017A - Producing method for forecasted order product - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an economical producing method for a forecast order product with favorable productivity effectively utilizing raw material of an un-ordered product when combining raw material of an ordered product and the raw material of the un-ordered product and manufacturing them together. <P>SOLUTION: In the producing method for the forecast order product, the raw material of the ordered product and the raw material of the un-ordered product are combined and produced in one lot, and both raw materials are respectively manufactured into the ordered product via a plurality of processes. Future order continuation and its order product quantity are determined from past records of order continuation and its ordered product quantity within a preset past period. Raw material of an order product determined that ordering will continue in the future is produced as the raw material of the un-ordered product until the determined order product quantity is satisfied at most. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2003,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a product of an estimated order in which the surplus amount is estimated from past order results when the production amount of the ordered product is excessive in the production amount of one lot. The present invention relates to a method for producing a predictive order product to be manufactured.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art For example, in an iron mill, molten iron produced in a blast furnace is adjusted in composition in a refining process (for example, a converter) to obtain molten steel, and this molten steel is cast in a continuous casting process to form a plurality of slabs. In the rolling process, each slab is directly or heat-treated and then rolled into a steel plate, and the steel plate is subjected to surface treatment such as painting or plating in the surface treatment process, and is then transported, for example, by a carrier (transporter) such as a ship or car. ) Is shipping. It should be noted that this manufacturing is a made-to-order manufacturing method performed after receiving an order from the user. Explaining this order-made manufacturing method in detail,
When an order from a user is input to, for example, a computer installed in a steelworks, the refining process, continuous casting process, rolling process, surface treatment process, etc. are performed based on the delivery date information attached to this order. The production schedule and its production amount (taking into account the yield etc.) are determined, and molten steel or steel sheet is produced according to the determined production schedule and its production amount (ordered product amount), and the steel product is the product on the delivery date of the order. It is shipped by a carrier such as the ship or car in time.

[0003]

However, the above-described build-to-order manufacturing system has the following problems. Since a large container is used in the converter (refining process) for producing molten steel (an example of the material for custom products) that is the raw material for steel,
A predetermined range amount (for example, 330 to 3) once (1 charge)
There is a facility limitation that must manufacture (refining) 60t) molten steel. On the other hand, the amount of molten steel for manufacturing the product ordered by the user may not be within the above-described predetermined range amount (hereinafter, also referred to as a restricted range amount). For this reason,
The production amount of molten steel for one charge is the amount of molten steel equivalent to the ordered steel material (molten steel tied to the order) plus excess molten steel that is not tied to the order (that is, not ordered). Become. Since this surplus molten steel is not tied to the order as described above, the dimensions (thickness, width, length, etc.)
Since it remains unknown, it is an order that can not be passed to the rolling process and is stored as a slab and can be allocated to this slab (order of the same quality as this storage slab)
It is necessary to heat this slab in a heating furnace at the stage when is input, and to perform the rolling process and the surface treatment process so as to meet the conditions such as the ordered size and the surface treatment.

Further, when rolling a storage slab whose temperature has dropped to about the atmospheric temperature, it is necessary to reheat the storage slab to 1000 ° C. or higher in a heating furnace at the stage when an order is input, and then roll it. It is uneconomical in terms of energy and has a long heating time, which impedes productivity. Further, as mentioned above, since reheating in the heating furnace takes a long time, there is little opportunity to load it in the heating furnace and reheat it during high production. , Had problems that could not be assigned. The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and when the materials of the ordered product and the materials of the non-ordered product are combined to be manufactured at one time, the materials of the products other than the ordered products are effectively utilized and the economy is improved. It is an object of the present invention to provide a method for producing a forecasted ordered product that is efficient, has good productivity, and can respond to short delivery times.

[0005]

According to the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the present invention, which meets the above-mentioned object, the material of the ordered product and the material of the product other than the ordered product are tied together and produced in one lot,
A method of producing a predicted ordered product in which both of these materials are individually ordered products through a plurality of processes, and in the future, order continuation and its order are determined based on the continuation of actual orders within a preset period in the past and the ordered product quantity. Determine the quantity of products ordered,
The material of the ordered product that is determined to continue to be ordered will be produced as the material of the product other than the ordered product at most until the determined ordered product amount is satisfied. In this way, by predicting the future order continuation and the ordered product quantity based on the continuation of the actual order within the preset period in the past and the ordered product quantity, information on the product that is likely to receive an order Since it is possible to grasp in advance, the material of the product other than the order manufactured together with the material of the ordered product can be used as the material of the product that is likely to receive the order.

[0006] Here, in the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the present invention, when the actual number of months of the order within the preset period is equal to or greater than the preset number of months and there is an order in the latest month within the period. In addition, it is preferable to determine that the product will continue to be ordered in the future. As a result, since the order status of each product can be grasped, it is possible to accurately select a product that is likely to receive an order in the future. In the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the present invention, it is preferable that the future ordered product quantity is determined from the average ordered product quantity in the month in which an order is placed within a preset period. This allows
Since it is possible to grasp the probable order product quantity that can be manufactured in advance, it is possible to manufacture the probable order product that is likely to be ordered in the future in an amount that may be required. Further, in the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the present invention, the tendency of the ordered product quantity within a preset period increases with an increase toward the latest month in this period, and decreases with a decrease. Products that have been divided into even trends that do not have the same order and will continue to be ordered in the future, and if the actual number of months of the order is the same, may be preferentially produced in the order of increasing tendency, equal tendency, and decreasing tendency. preferable. In this way, by dividing the tendency of the ordered product quantity and determining the priority of the expected order products to be produced according to this division, it is possible to manufacture from the expected order products that are likely to receive orders in the future.

In the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the present invention, it is preferable that a product produced from a material other than the ordered product is allocated to the order when the product is ordered. In this way, since the product is manufactured and stored before receiving the order request, it is possible to immediately respond to the order request and provide the product. Furthermore, in the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the present invention, the material of the ordered product and the material of the product other than the order are molten steel produced in the converter, and the material of the ordered product and the material of the product other than the order are tied together. It is preferable to bring the amount produced as one lot as one lot close to the maximum amount of the production constraint for one charge of the converter. In this way, the production amount of the material of the ordered product and the material of the non-ordered product are brought close to the maximum amount of the production restrictions of the converter, so that the production equipment can be effectively utilized.

[0008]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Next, referring to the attached drawings, an embodiment in which the present invention is embodied will be described to provide an understanding of the present invention. Here, FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram up to product manufacturing to which a method for producing a predicted ordered product according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied, and FIG. 2 shows a method for designing molten steel to which the method for producing a predicted ordered product is applied. It is a flowchart.

As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, the method for producing a predicted order product according to an embodiment of the present invention is product information of a product (for example, thin plate) for which an order (main order) has been placed by a user. (For example, steel type (component), product type, size, order quantity, etc.)
Based on the above, it is applied when manufacturing ordered products at a steel mill, and ties together molten steel, which is an example of the material of the ordered product, and excess molten steel, which is an example of the material of products other than the ordered product. , A refining container, such as a converter, is produced (refined) in one lot (1 charge), and both of these materials are individually ordered through a plurality of processes (for example, continuous casting process, rolling process, surface treatment process, etc.). Is the way to do it. In addition, this forecast order product production method determines the future order continuation and the ordered product quantity from the continuation of the actual order within the preset period in the past and the ordered product quantity, and the order continues in the future. Then, the material of the determined ordered product is produced as the material of the product other than the ordered product at most until the determined ordered product amount is satisfied. The details will be described below.

First, as shown in FIG.
For example, information on an ordered product (hereinafter, also simply referred to as a product) required one to two months ahead is input (order processing) to a host computer arranged in a steel mill. The product information input to the host computer of the steel mill is taken out by the computer that is the distributed system server connected to this host computer and is stored in this computer. On the other hand, the production is continued based on the actual orders (order entry information) within the preset period in the past (the past half year from N months to (N-5) months in this embodiment) accumulated in this computer. The sex is judged, for example, once a month after all the orders for the month are prepared. Here, this order information is shown in Table 1. In addition, products 1 to 6 in Table 1 indicate products (thin plates) having the same steel type.

[0011]

[Table 1]

The production continuity (continuation judgment) is judged from a continuation category indicating the number of months the ordered product is manufactured within a preset period, and a continuation tendency indicating an increase or decrease in the ordered product amount within the preset period. It The continuation category is indicated by the number of months each product is manufactured within 6 months regardless of the amount of each product manufactured (ordered product). Therefore, product 1 is 6, product 2 is 3, product 3 is 3, product 4 is 3, product 5 is 4, and product 6 is 5. Here, if the actual number of months of the order within the preset period is equal to or greater than the preset number of months (for example, 3) and there is an order in the latest month (N month) within the period, the product will be sold in the future. Decides to continue the order at.

As for the continuation tendency, the ordered product quantity for 6 months is divided into 3 categories every 2 months (N month + (N-1) month, (N-2) month +
(N−3) month, (N−4) month + (N−5) month), the fluctuation of the manufacturing (order) quantity of each ordered product is judged and shown as a symbol. Here, the tendency of the ordered product quantity in 6 months is classified as follows. An increasing tendency U (Up) is defined as a case in which the value increases as it approaches the latest month within this period, that is, a case in which product 3 continuously increases every two months. In addition, if it decreases, that is, 2 as in product 1 and product 5.
If it decreases continuously every month, the decreasing tendency D (Dow
n). Then, other than this, when there is no change, that is, when the numerical value every two months is the same as in the product 2, and when the numerical value every two months increases or decreases, the equal tendency E is set. It should be noted that the product 4 and the product 6 are Z because the product having no ordered product quantity in the latest month (N month) is Z. As described above, the increase / decrease of the ordered product quantity is divided into each product, and the product that is determined to continue the order in the future has the tendency of increasing, equality, and decreasing when the actual number of months of the order is the same. Production is carried out in order of priority as a prospective order. That is, the expected production is performed in the order of the products 1, 5, 3, 2.

Further, the future ordered product quantity of each product is determined from the average ordered product quantity of the ordered months in 6 months, that is, the monthly continued quantity. The monthly continuation amount is represented by a numerical value obtained by dividing the cumulative total of the ordered product quantity of each product for 6 months by the number of ordered months. Therefore, the products 1 to 6 are 200,
It becomes 150, 200, 200, 80, 50. The unit is ton. Therefore, the maximum production amount of products that are judged to have continuity is the above-mentioned numerical value. As a result, the products determined to have continuity are input from the above-mentioned computer together with the manufacturing conditions of each product, and are input to the host computer as an expected order.

Next, the design of one lot, that is, the amount of refining with one charge of the converter, will be described using this expected order and the above-mentioned main order. This is the maximum amount (3) within the above-mentioned restriction range for one charge of the converter, which is the amount produced by tying the molten steel of the ordered product and the molten steel of the expected ordered product together as one lot.
It is designed to approach 60 tons). Therefore, first, find the amount of molten steel for producing the ordered product, and if this amount of molten steel is less than the lower limit of the converter 1 charge constraint range, make use of the expected order so that it falls within the converter constraint range. To Hereinafter, description will be given with reference to FIG.

First, in step (ST) 1, the ordered products are combined (assembled) aiming at the maximum (Max) amount of the converter restricted range amount, and the molten steel amount required for manufacturing the ordered products is determined. . Next, in step (ST) 2, if the amount of molten steel required for this combined custom-ordered product satisfies the maximum amount within the constraint range of the converter, the amount of molten steel required to manufacture the custom-ordered product is determined. Therefore, the determination of the amount of molten steel to be refined by one charge of the converter is completed. On the other hand, step (S
In T) 2, the molten steel amount of this combined order product is
If the maximum amount of the restriction range of the converter is not satisfied, in step (ST) 3, it is determined whether or not there is an expected order of the same steel type as the ordered product, which is determined to be continuous due to the above-mentioned production continuity. . Here, if it is determined that there is no expected order of the same steel type, it is determined in step (ST) 5 whether the amount of molten steel to be manufactured satisfies the minimum (Min) amount of the converter constraint range amount.

On the other hand, if it is determined that there is a prospective order of the same steel type, in step (ST) 4, the prospective ordered product is incorporated aiming at the maximum (Max) amount of the converter restricted range amount. At this time, since the expected order product to be produced is determined by the method described above, there are, for example, the number of coils (products) in the past order, the weight of each coil, etc. ) Calculate and determine how many coils can be collected so as to approach the maximum amount of excess molten steel that is obtained by subtracting the amount of molten steel required to manufacture the ordered product from the amount. Then, in step (ST) 5, if the amount of molten steel required for the ordered product or the amount of molten steel required for the ordered product and the prospective ordered product meets the minimum (Min) amount of the converter constraint range amount, The determination of the amount of molten steel to be smelted with one charge of the furnace is completed. On the other hand, in step (ST) 5, if the molten steel amount does not meet the minimum (Min) amount of the converter constraint range amount, a surplus material that satisfies the minimum (Min) amount (for example, the last read expected order product) is incorporated. , The determination of the amount of molten steel to be refined with one charge of the converter is completed. By the above method, the expected order is utilized to perform the lot formation, so that it is possible to apply the surplus molten steel that is normally manufactured without receiving an order to a product that is likely to receive an order. The lot organization can be stored and used as, for example, a computer as lot information.

As described above, the prospective ordered product manufactured from the surplus molten steel is inventoried after the stock state is set to one of the states of packing, coil, slab, etc. based on the past production product information. It is stored as information and can be assigned when there is an actual order for this product (see Fig. 1). It should be noted that the predicted order products that were produced (prospect order products)
Can also be used in place of the product that has actually been ordered, for example, instead of the product whose quality does not satisfy the predetermined components, so that it is possible to expand the range of use of the product manufactured from the excess molten steel.

Although the present invention has been described with reference to one embodiment, the present invention is not limited to the configuration described in the above embodiment, but is described in the scope of claims. Other embodiments and modifications that are conceivable within the scope of the matters described above are also included. For example, in the above-described embodiment, the case where molten steel is used as the material for the ordered product and the non-ordered product has been described. However, it is also possible to use the material of the ordered product and the material of the product other than the ordered product by tying them together, for example, a material manufactured in a food factory, a chemical factory or the like, or a slab design. Further, in the above-described embodiment, the determination of the production continuity is defined as the continuity when the continuation classification is 3 or more, and the continuity is not determined in the other cases. But,
Depending on the amount of excess molten steel generated, for example, the continuous classification is 5 or 6
As described above, it is of course possible to change the determination of production continuity according to the situation.

[0020]

According to the method for producing a predicted order product according to claims 1 to 6, the future order continuation and the order thereof are continued based on the continuation of the actual order within the preset period in the past and the ordered product quantity. By predicting the product volume, it is possible to know in advance information about products that are likely to receive an order, so use the material of the product other than the order manufactured together with the material of the ordered product as the material of the product that is likely to receive the order. it can. For this reason, for example, in steel mills, it is possible to effectively utilize the molten steel produced in the refining vessel, and to continuously supply excess molten steel that has not been used as a raw material for products without receiving an order in the past. Can be processed in a plurality of steps arranged on the downstream side. Therefore, each step (for example, rolling) while maintaining the high temperature state of the slab without significantly relieving the heat of the excess molten steel, that is, without reheating like the slab stored without determining the manufacturing conditions, is performed. Can be processed with
It is economical and has good productivity.

Particularly, in the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to claim 2, since the order status of each product can be grasped,
You can accurately select products that are likely to receive orders in the future. Therefore, for example, the manufacturing conditions of products manufactured by rolling slabs can be judged based on the continuity of ordered products without depending on the idea of the operator (exclude personality), and the products that are not shipped can be reduced, It is economical because the inventory turnover ratio can be improved. In the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the third aspect, since the quantity of ordered products that can be manufactured in advance can be grasped, it is possible to manufacture only the products that are likely to be ordered in the future in an amount that may be required. Therefore, it is possible to grasp the expected quantity of ordered products that is likely to be required in advance, so that it is economical to reduce the risk of producing a large amount of inventory by, for example, manufacturing too much. In the predictive ordered product manufacturing method according to claim 4, by dividing the tendency of the ordered product quantity and determining the priority order of the products to be manufactured according to this classification, a prospective order that is highly likely to receive an order in the future. Can be manufactured from products. Therefore, for example, it is economical because it is possible to reduce the risk of generating a large amount of inventory by manufacturing a large number of prospective ordered products having low priority.

In the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to the fifth aspect, since the product is manufactured and stored before receiving the order request, it is possible to immediately respond to the order request and provide the product. In this way, since the order request can be immediately dealt with, it is possible to improve the ability of the customer to deal with the request for short delivery time. In the method for producing a predicted ordered product according to claim 6, since the production amount of the raw material of the ordered product and the raw material of the product other than the ordered product is brought close to the maximum amount of the production restrictions of the converter, the production equipment can be effectively utilized. . Therefore, the production amount of molten steel can be brought close to the upper limit value of the production constraint, and the production equipment can be effectively utilized, so that the molten steel can be produced efficiently, and the production cost can be reduced, which is economical.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram up to product manufacturing to which a method for manufacturing a predicted ordered product according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a molten steel design method to which the method for producing the same predicted ordered product is applied.

   ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continued front page    (72) Inventor Koji Sato             1 Nishinosu, Oita City, Oita Prefecture Nippon Steel So             Solutions Oita Branch F term (reference) 3C100 AA08 AA34 BB02 BB05 BB39                       EE10

Claims (6)

[Claims] 1. A method for producing a predictive ordered product in which a material for an ordered product and a material for a product other than an ordered product are tied together to produce one lot, and both materials are individually ordered products through a plurality of steps. From the continuation of the actual order within the preset period in the past and the ordered product quantity, the future order continuation and the ordered product quantity are determined, and the material of the ordered product determined to continue in the future A method for producing a predicted ordered product, characterized in that production is performed as a material of a product other than the above until the determined ordered product amount is satisfied at most. 2. The method for producing a predicted ordered product according to claim 1, wherein the actual number of months of an order within a preset period is equal to or greater than a preset number of months, and there is an order in the latest month within the period. A method of producing a predictive ordered product, characterized in that the product is determined to continue to be ordered in the future. 3. The forecast ordered product production method according to claim 1, wherein the future ordered product amount is calculated from the average ordered product amount of the ordered month within a preset period. A method for producing a predictive ordered product, characterized by making a decision. 4. The method for producing a predicted ordered product according to claim 1, wherein the tendency of the ordered product quantity within the preset period approaches the latest month within this period. Increasing increasing tendency, decreasing decreasing tendency,
Products that have been divided into uniform trends that do not change, and that it is decided that the order will continue in the future, and the actual number of months of the order is the same, priority is given to the increasing tendency, the equality tendency, and the decreasing tendency in this order. A method for producing a predictive ordered product, which is characterized by producing. 5. The method for producing a predictive ordered product according to claim 1, wherein a product produced from a material other than the ordered product is ordered when the ordered product is ordered. A method for producing a predictive ordered product, which is characterized in that 6. The method for producing a predicted ordered product according to claim 1, wherein the material of the ordered product and the material of the product other than the ordered product are molten steel manufactured in a converter. A predicted order product characterized by bringing together the material of the ordered product and the material of the product other than the ordered product to produce the quantity as one lot close to the maximum quantity of the manufacturing constraint of one charge of the converter. Production method.