JP2003242432A - Demand predicting device, method, computer program and computer readable recording medium - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately execute a demand predicting arithmetic operation when selling a product composed of a plurality of parts by, for example, a BTO system. <P>SOLUTION: The demand predicting arithmetic operation of the product is executed on the basis of the past sale of the product or an order reception result value. A first demand prediction result is calculated by adding external factor information to a calculated demand predictor when necessary. Demand prediction with every part in a decoupling point designated with every segment is calculated as a second demand prediction result. The first demand prediction result of adding the external factor information is added to the second demand prediction result, and is calculated as a third demand prediction result. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2003,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a demand forecasting apparatus, method, and method for forecasting product demand and component demand in order to procure parts and the like necessary for manufacturing in anticipation of demand for products to be sold. The present invention relates to a computer program for realizing these and a computer-readable recording medium, and particularly to demand forecast suitable for a BTO (Build To Order) type production system.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, in the manufacturing industry, a plurality of lineups have been set for the same type of product and a production plan is made in anticipation of customer needs. For example, by purchasing a lineup of low-function, low-priced products from high-function, high-priced products, customers have purchased products of the required rank according to the purpose of use.

However, since the company on the sales side needs to produce a product by prospective production and keep an inventory for each product lineup, especially in the present time where the product life cycle is shortened. , The risk of inventory valuation loss and obsolescence loss is increasing.

Therefore, BTO (Build
An increasing number of companies have adopted the To Order method. B
The TO method is a method of assembling and delivering a product after receiving an order from a customer. In the BTO method, a sales company prepares a group of parts that make up a product in advance, and a customer places an order in the form of which parts are desired for the product. By adopting such a method, it is not necessary for the sales company to have a wide variety of products in inventory as products,
Customers can purchase products that are composed of only the combinations of parts that they really need.

Such a BTO method has been widely adopted, for example, by companies selling computer products, and it is reported that it is particularly advantageous to achieve both abundant product variations and inventory reduction.

[0006] Then, in a company that sells products by BTO, it is necessary to forecast demand and prepare parts for composing the products in advance before supplying the products. Each company mainly performs demand forecast calculation based on past sales performance data and the like. If product A and product B are sold a lot in the past, there is a high possibility that product A and product B will be sold more in the future. The prediction is made by preparing more than the parts constituting other products. Even when selling BTO products, it is possible to obtain the effect of risk avoidance by forecasting demand.

By the way, in the BTO system as described above,
Cases that require different BTO support for each product or customer are not considered. As an example, consider the flow of producing and selling standard and custom-made items for a table using the BTO method. In order to produce a table, parts such as a top plate and legs are made in the parts processing process based on the materials. The processed parts are temporarily stored as inventory parts. The parts are then each painted in a painting process. The painted parts are temporarily stored as painted stock parts. Furthermore, the table painted by combining the top plate and legs in the assembling process is ready for shipment as a finished stock item.

Stocks, painted stocks, and finished stocks are temporarily invented at the end of their respective processes. However, holding inventory keeps the storage space and costs high, so keep it to a minimum. Is preferred. Generally, when deciding which process and how much inventory to keep, the customer purchasing the product wants the period from ordering to delivery to be as short as possible. It is desirable to have a system in place that allows us to ship as soon as an order is placed by having a large inventory.

However, it suffices if the standard products are all painted in standard colors, but if many custom-made products of special colors that are rarely shipped are held in the lower process side, for example, as finished stock products, the storage location・ There is a problem that the inventory storage risk such as cost increases.

Therefore, each company makes a production plan by finding a compromise that can satisfy the customer's wishes and minimizes the inventory storage risk when selling products by the BTO method.

[0011]

However, if the product lineup in which standard products and custom-made products are mixed is sold by the BTO method, the above-mentioned compromise is relatively low risk even if the delivery time of the custom-made products is delayed a little. Standard products are often biased to advantage, and it was very difficult to find a compromise to satisfy both.

Further, as a sudden external factor, if there is a sudden order from a large-scale customer, even standard products may run short and the delivery time may be delayed. Originally, it is preferable to stock standard products in the lower process side and hold only custom-made products that need to be painted in a special color as parts in the higher process.
The demand forecast by the TO method has not been considered so far, and in fact, the demand forecast taking into consideration the situation desired from such a product manufacturing has not been made.

From another point of view, even if the same product is delivered, the BTO in consideration of the fact that the customer of the customer and the general customer give priority to the delivery time to the customer. It is difficult to adopt the method. In other words, since the demand forecast originally only forecasts future demand based on past sales results, there was no distinction between customers and general customers.

Thus, although it has been desired to provide the BTO method in consideration of the circumstances originally desired from the manufacture of the product and the circumstances of the customer, there has been no system having the functions up to that point.

Further, the BTO method does not assume that intermediate parts are shipped as products. In other words, the products delivered to customers are so-called final products, and in many cases, customer demand is handled uniformly. For example, in the case of general furniture sales such as tables, the top plate is delivered to the customer,
It is a combination of legs. On the contrary, it is not considered in the first place to sell only the components configured by the BTO method. For example, it is not considered to purchase only the top plate at the BTO of the company that sells the table.

Even in such a situation, there are cases where the customer's needs further expand and the customer desires to purchase a product that can be purchased and used in the form of parts instead of the final product. In this case, if you suddenly receive an order from a large customer who wants to purchase only the intermediate parts as a product, there is a shortage of intermediate parts that you want to use with other products, or you can withstand supplying intermediate parts as products. There may be cases where inventory is originally less than the number of orders.

Therefore, even if an attempt is made to deliver another product by BTO, the final product cannot be produced due to a shortage of intermediate parts, or even if a large number of intermediate parts are ordered, a new quantity can be added before the delivery. If it has to be produced, the early delivery effect, which is one of the merits of the BTO method, may be lost.

In response to such conventional demand forecasting, the applicant of the present application discloses in the Japanese Patent Application No. 2001-186420 the past product sales in order to forecast the product demand of a plurality of products composed of a plurality of parts. It discloses a technology for forecasting demand based on actual results and past component usage results.

In the conventional demand forecasting apparatus, the demand forecasting is performed only on the basis of the order record information of the final product, whereas in Japanese Patent Application No. 2001-186420, when there is an external factor such as a sudden large order, the The value including the factor information is added to the product sales actual value to calculate the demand forecast result, and the demand forecast calculation result obtained from the “used” actual value of the parts used in the past is compared to find the difference. If there is, the result obtained from the actual product sales value side is adopted.

In the invention disclosed in Japanese Patent Application No. 2001-186420, inputting an external factor as option information is considered, but the demand forecast calculation is performed from the final product order information. However, the issues specific to BTO, which are different for each product and each customer, are not considered.

As an invention relating to the calculation of the required number of materials peculiar to the BTO method, for example, Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2000-163497.
There is one disclosed in the issue. This publication discloses a technique for calculating a material requirement when an apparatus having a multi-stage material configuration is sold by the BTO method. The technology of this publication does not predict the expected product demand in the future, but calculates the required number of materials by how many times each material is required for the product already ordered and produced. It is a thing.

As described above, the conventional demand forecasting apparatus or method is not necessarily suitable for the BTO system sales form which has been increasingly adopted in recent years, and it has not been possible to accurately forecast demand.

According to the present invention, when a standard product and a custom-made product are mixed, or a product group in which intermediate parts can be one product is lined up, which product will be sold in the future by the BTO method? -The purpose is to be able to accurately obtain a demand forecast of how much customer demand is expected for parts.

[0024]

A demand forecasting apparatus according to the present invention is based on a past record value storage means for storing past sale or order record values of products, and a past record value stored in the past record value storage means. Demand forecast calculation means for performing demand forecast calculation, external factor addition means for adding external factor information to the demand forecast value calculated by the demand forecast calculation means, and decoupling point designation means for designating decoupling points And a forecast adjustment value adding unit that adds a forecast adjustment value to the demand forecast calculation result, and the demand forecast calculated by the demand forecast calculation unit based on the actual value stored in the previous period actual value storage unit for the product. The external factor information is added to the value by the external factor adding means to calculate a first demand forecast calculation result, and the decoupling point is calculated for the parts constituting the product. The demand forecast calculation means calculates the demand forecast for each component at the decoupling point designated by the second demand forecast calculation means, and the forecast adjustment value adding means is used to calculate the second demand forecast. It is characterized in that the first demand forecast calculation result is added to the calculation result as a forecast adjustment value and is calculated as the third demand forecast result.

Another demand forecasting apparatus of the present invention is a BT
It is a demand forecasting device for forecasting the demand of a product or a component in order to sell a product or a component of the product by an O (Build To Order) system, and is based on the actual value sold or ordered in the past by the BTO system. For calculating the demand forecast of the product, means for forecasting the demand of the parts at the decoupling point, and means for adding the external factor information to the demand forecast of the product as necessary to calculate the forecast adjustment value. And a means for reflecting the forecast adjustment value on the demand forecast value of the component.

According to the demand forecasting method of the present invention, the demand forecasting calculation of the product is performed based on the past sales or order record value of the product, and the external factor information is added to the calculated demand forecasting value as needed. Procedure for calculating the first demand forecast result, a procedure for calculating the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point as the second demand forecast result, and the first demand forecast result for the second demand forecast result And a procedure for calculating the result as a third demand forecast result.

The computer program of the present invention calculates the demand forecast of the product based on the past sales or order actual value of the product and adds external factor information to the calculated demand forecast value as necessary. A process of calculating the first demand forecast result, and a process of calculating the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point as the second demand forecast result,
It is characterized in that it causes a computer to execute a process of adding the first demand forecast result to the second demand forecast result and calculating it as a third demand forecast result.

The computer-readable recording medium of the present invention performs the demand forecast calculation of the product based on the past sales or received order value of the product, and external factor information is added to the calculated demand forecast value as necessary. To calculate the first demand forecast result, a process of calculating the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point as the second demand forecast result, and the first demand forecast result to the second demand forecast result. It is characterized in that a program for causing a computer to execute a process of adding to the demand forecast result and calculating as a third demand forecast result is stored.

According to the present invention described above, it is possible to obtain a highly accurate demand forecast result by forecasting the demand for each decoupling point, which can be reflected in the parts supply plan and the product production plan. I can do it now.

[0030]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Although various products to be sold by the BTO system are conceivable, here, a case where a custom-made product made to order and a product sold as standard are mixed are described as an example. Moreover, not only the final product but also the intermediate parts will be described as products that can be sold by the BTO method. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and various BTO systems can be used.
It can be applied to the demand forecast in sales. When products are sold in the above-described form, the same product or similar products may have different delivery dates, and there may be circumstances such as prioritizing according to the customer.

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram for explaining the present embodiment, which relates to an apparatus for performing demand forecasting calculation, and is actually realized by a computer. In FIG. 1, a central processing unit 1, a product configuration information database (hereinafter, the database is referred to as “DB”) 2,
The order record information DB 3, the input unit 4, the output unit 5, the external factor information 6 and the like are included. Each unit may be configured by hardware or software.

Product configuration information DB2, order record information DB3
Are each configured using a relational database or the like. The product configuration information DB 2 stores information such as the number of parts constituting the product, the definition of the manufacturing process procedure, the decoupling point, and the assembly lead time for each product and each part. Further, in the order record information DB 3, information on products ordered in the past or information on products sold has been stored as record values. These pieces of information may be considered the same as those used in a general demand forecasting device. If the sales and order data is stored on the side of the sales system for selling by the BTO method, that data may be used as it is.

The input means 4 is mainly an input device of a computer and is a keyboard, a mouse, an interface for receiving information from a communication line, an information recording medium, or the like. The output means 5 is a computer display, a printer, a communication line, an interface for transmitting information to an information recording medium, or the like.

The external factor information 6 indicates that when a demand forecast calculation is performed, a large order is suddenly received, or the end-of-sale information (a certain product is not sold anymore due to a model change, etc. This is the information that should be input when there is information such as switching to). In the conventional demand forecast calculation, the calculation is performed only on the basis of the past actual value, but here, such external factor information is also used as important information.

The central processing means 1 is composed of a common parts demand forecasting calculation means 10, a final product demand forecasting means 11, a forecast value adjusting means 12, a demand forecast value determining means 13 and the like. The common component demand forecast calculation means 10 has a function for forecasting demand for common components, and the final product demand forecasting means 11 has a function for forecasting demand for the final product. These functions are realized by the software that performs the demand forecast calculation,
They may be different software or the same software. In this embodiment, another means is provided for the sake of clarity. Prediction value adjusting means 1
2. The demand forecast value determination means 13 will be described in detail later.

In the present embodiment, as a form in which custom-made products made to order and products sold as standard are mixed, FIG.
Take for example the sale of furniture as shown in. Big parts 7
0, small parts 72, intermediate parts 71 (hereinafter referred to as "large parts 70, middle parts 71, small parts 72", etc.) large, medium and small size as a standard lineup of shelves One part 70, one middle part 71
Product A73 in which four small parts 72 are combined, product B7 in which one large part 70 and two middle parts 71 are combined
4, there is a product C75 in which two middle parts 71 and eight small parts 72 are combined.

Further, a combination of relatively frequently used parts is set as a common part in advance, a common part X76 in which two small parts 72 are combined, a common part Y77 in which two middle parts 71 are combined, and two common parts X76. , A common part Z78 in which one middle part 71 is combined is prepared. Since the common component Z78 is a component that uses the common component X76, in contrast to the component having such a hierarchical component configuration, the "primary common component" will be described below in the order of production in the upper process side. "Secondary common component", ..., "nth common component", etc. will be referred to. If the customer wants a combination other than the standard product or a color scheme not found in the standard product, the product is a custom-made product made to order.

Information about what kind of parts each product is composed of is stored in the product composition information DB 2.

FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining the manufacturing process of the product A73. Since the product A73 uses parts of large, medium, and small sizes, the parts are procured from the supplier 80 at the production factory 81. Only the parts are shown here, but other materials will be procured as necessary.

When the parts can be procured, first the small parts 72 are
Combine the two to assemble the common part X76. Common parts X
It will take one day to assemble 76. Next, common part X
Common part Z78 by combining two and one middle part 71
Assemble. This assembly will take 3 days. Further, one large component 70 is combined with the common component Y77 to complete the final product A73. This last step shall take 3 days. Therefore, it takes a total of 7 days after the parts are procured until the product A73 can be shipped. The time required for these steps is called the assembly lead time. It takes another day to deliver the product A73 until it reaches the customer 82. Although a lead time is also generated when procuring parts, the lead time related to this procurement is not considered here for the sake of simplification of the description.

Similarly, for the product B74, when the parts are procured, first, two common parts 71 are combined to assemble the common part Y77. It will take two days to assemble the common part Y77. The product B74 is completed by combining one large part 70 with the common part Y77. The lead time from parts procurement to completion is 5 days.

The product C75 has two production methods.
The first method is to use two common parts X76 and a common part Z78.
This is a method of combining one and one middle part 71. The second method is a method of combining four common parts X76 and one common part Y77. In the first method, the lead time from component procurement to completion is 6 days, but in the second method it is 5 days. Thus, even the same product may have some patterns of steps.

Next, the flow of the demand forecast calculation process will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. The demand forecast here is a forecast of future demand for all products or some products based on past orders, etc., and based on the results calculated here, production plans, supply plans, etc. Planned.

First, the configuration information of the product for which the demand is predicted is extracted from the product configuration information DB2 and the product is developed into parts and divided into parts and common parts. For example, in the case of the product A73, information that one large part 70, one middle part 71, and four small parts 72 are used is obtained (step S1). In addition,
The product for which the demand is predicted is a product listed as a past order record stored in the order record information DB 3, and is a single or plural product selected as necessary.

Next, the decoupling point is determined for each segment (step S2). A segment is a concept in which products are grouped for each customer or each product. For example, a group of products provided to a specific customer or a common part to some extent is used, but some parts are different. Is a group of product groups produced using. These groupings can be arbitrarily set for each customer or each product according to the purpose.

The decoupling point is a point where the demand (customer) side and the supply (sales company) side meet each other on the time axis of the production process as viewed from the requirements of both sides. It is similar to the "compromise point" described in the prior art, but the conventional "compromise point" is for the company to keep the inventory of parts that compose standard products and custom-made products as well as possible in balance. On the other hand, the decoupling point is arbitrarily set for each standard product group for standard products and for each custom-made product group for custom-made products. Therefore, if there are two standard products that are exactly the same but differ only in the color scheme, they will have different decoupling points, and if there is a product to be painted in a special color as a custom-made product, that special product will have another decoupling point Can have, or can all have the same decoupling point.

For example, if the product is to be provided in a coloring according to the customer's request, the supplier may prepare the parts or the product just waiting for painting.
The decoupling point is the state of the nth common component immediately before the painting process. If it takes 7 days from the start of painting to the delivery to the customer, including the delivery, the decoupling point is the n-th common component in the process 7 days back from the customer's order.

The decoupling points are predetermined for each segment and are registered in the product configuration information DB2 or the like. Therefore, when the product for which the demand is predicted is determined, the decoupling point specified by the grouping to which the product belongs may be automatically extracted from the product configuration information DB2. It is also possible to change the decoupling point each time and execute the demand forecasting calculation. In that case, the decoupling point information is input via the input means 4.

Generally, common parts are assembled in multiple stages,
And if the lead time varies by product or customer,
The availability of common parts increases when stocking common parts in the upstream process of production as much as possible.

For example, it is assumed that there are four common parts that make up the final product and that each common part has three variations. In this case, the common parts are 4 ×
There are 12 kinds of 3 kinds, and the final product can be manufactured with 81 kinds of 3 4 to the 4th power. As described above, the number of final products (or common parts) that can be manufactured by combining common parts is larger than that of common parts (or common parts in the downstream process) in terms of types. In other words, it is possible to stock a small number of common parts in the upstream process,
This is because it can be used for a wide range of final products or common parts in downstream processes.

Further, since the mere parts which are further upstream of the primary common parts constitute the primary common parts which have completely different functions and configurations, there are a great many types compared with the types of the primary common parts. It has the characteristic that it holds.

Therefore, it is possible to obtain a highly accurate result because there are fewer parameters when the demand prediction is performed on the common component and the common component on the upstream side rather than the product. The decoupling point is one of the indexes to select which process should be calculated when the demand forecast is made for this common component.

Next, the assembly lead time is determined for each common part (step S3). The demand forecast is calculated based on past performance values. For example, it is assumed that the demand forecast on February 11th, which is one week after the product A73, is performed based on the assumption that the order achievement value “100 pieces” on February 4th. Product A
Since the assembly lead time for assembling the final product from the secondary common part 73 is 3 days, the common part Z will be the actual value on February 1st.
This means that 100 78 have been consumed. Going back further, the assembly lead time from the primary common part assembly to the secondary common part is 3 days, so on January 29th, the actual value is the common part X7.
It means that 6 6 were consumed. Further, it can be seen that 400 small parts 72 were consumed on January 28, one day before. Focusing only on the product A73, it is easy to predict the demand for the amount of consumption in each process retroactively, but in reality, many products such as the product B74, the product C75, ... Are lined up and consume common parts. In addition, since the lead time differs for each process of each product, simply forecasting the demand from the actual value of the final product may lead to a shortage because the parts that should exist are used by other products. Absent. Therefore, the assembly lead time is further determined for each common part of the products divided in step S1.

When the product B74 and the product C75 are assembled using the common part Y77, and if the decoupling points of both products are common after the primary common part assembly, the decoupling point of the product B74 is the same. That is, the lead time of the common component Y77 is determined, and similarly, the lead time of the common component Y77 at the decoupling point of the product C75 is determined.

Similarly to the decoupling point, the assembly lead time for each common part may be extracted from the information stored in the product configuration information DB 2 in advance, or the information input from the input means 4 may be used.

In this way, when the information of the decoupling point and the assembly lead time for each segment of the product for which the demand forecast is made is determined, the common parts are obtained from the past order record stored in the order record information DB 3 for the common part. Demand forecast calculation is performed using the demand forecast calculation means 10 (step S4).

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the flow of producing the product A73 in more detail. Product A73 is a large part 70
, One middle part 71, and four small parts 72, which are assembled in three steps. First, in the first step, the small parts 72 are used to assemble two common parts X76. This process is one day. In the next second step, one common part Z78 is assembled using the common part X76 and the middle part 71. This process takes 3 days. In the third step, the product A is assembled using the common part Z78 and the large part 70.
This process takes 3 days. The decoupling point of the grouping to which the product A73 belongs is set at the time when the first process is completed, and if there is no offset for the assembly lead time, the demand forecast calculation in step S4 is performed with the common component X76. Large parts 70 and middle parts 71
For each of the.

On the other hand, the demand forecast calculation is also performed using the final product demand forecast calculation means 11 based on the past order record of the final product itself (step S5). This demand forecast calculation has been performed conventionally. For example, as a result of performing the demand prediction calculation for the product A, a result such as “a demand for 100 products A can be expected” is obtained at some point in the future.

The calculation result in step S5 is simply based on the past order record, but in reality, there are sudden large orders, some products are sold out, etc., so the external factor information 6 It is necessary to adjust the demand forecast result by adding these types of information. Therefore, the external factor information 6 is input through the input means 4 and the predicted value adjustment means 12 calculates the predicted adjustment value (step S6). For example, if 20 orders are suddenly generated for product A, information "+20" is output as the predicted adjustment value. In particular, if there is no external factor information 6, the process directly proceeds to the next step.

In this way, the demand forecast result for each common component can be obtained in steps S1 to 4, and the forecast adjustment value based on the demand forecast of the final product can be obtained in steps S5 to S6. Although the description is given in the order of steps S1 to S6, it goes without saying that steps S1 to S4 and steps S5 to S6 may be processed in parallel, or steps S5 to S6 may be processed before step S.
You may process 1-4.

Next, the forecast adjustment value obtained in step S6 is reflected in the demand forecast result obtained in step S4 (step S7). Here, first, the product is divided into common parts based on the product configuration information stored in the product configuration information DB 2 with respect to the predicted adjustment value. In the above-mentioned example of the predicted adjustment value, there is the information “+20” for the product A, so that the common part Z78 that constitutes it, for example, is also “+20”.
Is expanded to the information. On the other hand, the result that 100 common parts Z78 are required is output from step S4. In this case, the forecast adjustment value is added (reflected) to the demand forecast calculation result of the common component output from step S4, and the result that 120 common components Z78 are required is obtained.

When the demand forecast value for each common part is corrected,
The safety stock amount is calculated for each common part (step S8), and the result is used to create a supply plan (step S9).
Calculation of the safety stock amount and calculation of the supply plan may be a commonly used method.

It should be noted that the idea of predicting the demand from the information on the final product and the information on the parts and adopting one of them as a positive value when there is a difference between the two results is described in Japanese Patent Application No. 2001-186420. However, in Japanese Patent Application No. 2001-186420, the demand forecast result obtained from the past product sales record value is compared with the demand forecast result obtained from the “use” record value of the parts used in the past. If there is a difference, the result obtained from the product sales record value side is adopted as “positive”.

On the other hand, in the present application, the demand forecast is made based on the past "order" or "sales" results for both the final product information and the component information. The difference is that demand is forecasted for each component at the decoupling point. By using this method, it is possible to obtain a highly accurate demand forecast result for each decoupling point.

In the present embodiment, an example of selling a plurality of final products from a plurality of parts by the BTO method has been described, but according to the present invention, the parts themselves are sold as final products. Can obtain highly accurate demand forecast results. For example, in the product A73, the common part X76 and the common part Z78 are used as parts. However, if a customer wants to purchase only the part Z78, such an assumption is made in the demand forecast of the conventional technology. Therefore, if the part Z78 is shipped, a material shortage may occur when other products are produced, or a delay may occur with respect to the lead time for material procurement.

Even in this case, even if the common component is regarded as the final product and the decoupling point is set further upstream, it is possible to predict the demand of the common component with high accuracy. In other words, even if the common parts are exactly the same, if the product used is product A or product B, or if the common part itself is sold as a product, the decoupling point defined for each segment Since it is allowed to be different, it can be a demand forecast target on the upstream side of the process or a demand forecast target on the downstream side. This flexible demand forecast has allowed us to improve accuracy.

As described above, according to this embodiment,
By performing demand forecasting for each decoupling point, it is possible to obtain highly accurate demand forecasting results, which can be reflected in parts supply plans and product production plans.

The embodiment described above is composed of a CPU of a computer or MPU, RAM, ROM, etc., and can be realized by operating a program recorded in the RAM or ROM. Therefore, the program can be realized by recording a program that causes a computer to perform the above-mentioned functions in a recording medium and causing the computer to read the program. As a recording medium, C
A D-ROM, a floppy (R) disk, a hard disk, a magnetic tape, a magneto-optical tape, a non-volatile memory card, etc. can be used.

Further, a program product in which the above-described embodiment is realized by a computer executing a program and performing processing is included in the embodiment of the present invention.
As the program product, the program itself for realizing the functions of the above-described embodiments, a computer loaded with the program, a transmission device capable of providing the program to a computer communicably connected via a network, and the transmission There is a network system including a device.

Further, not only the functions of the above-described embodiments are realized by the computer executing the supplied program, but also the OS (operating system) or other application software in which the program code runs in the computer. It is needless to say that such program code is included in the embodiment of the present invention even when the functions of the above-described embodiment are realized in cooperation with the above.

[0071]

As described above, in the present invention, the demand forecast calculation of the product is performed based on the past sales or order record value of the product, and the external factor information is added to the calculated demand forecast value as necessary. To calculate the first demand forecast result,
Also, the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point specified for each segment is calculated as the second demand forecast result, and the first demand forecast result with external factor information added to the second demand forecast result. Since it is calculated as the third demand forecast result by adding, it is possible to obtain a highly accurate demand forecast result by performing demand forecast for each decoupling point, and it is possible to obtain parts supply plans and product production. You can now reflect it in your plans.

In particular, even if the same product is used, BT is different for each customer, such as giving priority to product production for customers.
It has become possible to accurately forecast demand for O-type sales.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of a demand prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a demand prediction processing operation according to the embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a product configuration of furniture described in the embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a diagram schematically illustrating a manufacturing process of a product.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing in detail the manufacturing process of the furniture product A used in the embodiment of the present invention.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 Central processing means 2 Product configuration information database 3 Order record information database 4 input means 5 Output means 6 External factor information 10 Common parts demand forecast calculation means 11 Final product demand forecast calculation means 12 Prediction value adjustment means 13 Demand forecast value determination means 70 large parts 71 Middle parts 72 small parts 73 Product A 74 Product B 75 Product C 76 Common parts X 77 Common parts Y 78 Common parts Z 80 Suppliers 81 production plant 82 customers

   ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continued front page    (72) Inventor Atsushi Yamato             2-20-15 Shinkawa, Chuo-ku, Tokyo Nippon Steel             Solutions Co., Ltd.

Claims (7)

[Claims] 1. A performance value storage means for storing past sales or order performance values of a product, and a demand forecast calculation means for performing demand forecast calculation based on the past performance values stored in the performance value storage means. External factor adding means for adding external factor information to the demand forecast value calculated by the demand forecast computing means, decoupling point designating means for designating a decoupling point, and a forecast adjustment value for the demand forecast computation result And an external factor by the external factor adding unit for the demand forecast value calculated by the demand forecast computing unit based on the actual value stored in the previous period actual value storage unit for the product. The first demand forecasting calculation result is calculated by adding information, and the decoupling point designated by the decoupling point designating means is specified for the parts constituting the product. The demand forecast for each part at the point of interest is calculated as the second demand forecast calculation result by the demand forecast calculation means, and the first demand is added to the second demand forecast calculation result using the forecast adjustment value adding means. A demand forecasting device, characterized in that a forecasting calculation result is added as a forecast adjustment value and is calculated as a third demand forecasting result. 2. The past sales or order record values of products stored in the record value storage means are BTO (Build To Orde)
The demand forecasting device according to claim 1, wherein the demand forecasting device is information on a product sold or ordered by the method r). 3. The demand forecasting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the product is composed of a plurality of parts, and the parts themselves are sold or ordered as products. . 4. A demand forecasting device for forecasting the demand of a product or a component in order to sell a product or a component constituting the product by a BTO (Build To Order) system, which is sold or ordered in the past by the BTO system. A means for calculating the demand forecast of the product based on the actual value obtained, a means for forecasting the demand of the parts at the decoupling point, and a forecast adjustment by adding external factor information to the demand forecast of the product as needed. A demand forecasting apparatus comprising: a unit that calculates a value; and a unit that reflects the forecast adjustment value in a demand forecast value of the component. 5. A first demand forecast by performing demand forecast calculation of the product based on past sales of the product or an actual received order value and adding external factor information to the calculated demand forecast value as needed. A procedure for calculating the result, a procedure for calculating the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point as a second demand forecast result, and adding the first demand forecast result to the second demand forecast result And a procedure of calculating it as a demand forecast result of the demand forecast method. 6. A first demand forecast by performing a demand forecast calculation of the product based on past sales of the product or an actual received order value and adding external factor information to the calculated demand forecast value as needed. A process of calculating the result, a process of calculating the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point as a second demand forecast result, and a process of adding the first demand forecast result to the second demand forecast result A computer program for causing a computer to execute the process of calculating as the demand forecast result of. 7. A first demand forecast by performing a demand forecast calculation of the product based on past sales of the product or an actual received order value and adding external factor information to the calculated demand forecast value as needed. A process of calculating the result, a process of calculating the demand forecast for each part at the decoupling point as a second demand forecast result, and a process of adding the first demand forecast result to the second demand forecast result A computer-readable recording medium storing a program for causing a computer to execute a process of calculating as a demand forecast result.