JP2002015108A - Device and method for analyzing enterprise value - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an enterprise value analyzing device and an enterprise value analyzing method which make business financial analysis technique and enterprise value evaluation technique precise, standard and integratedly utilizable. SOLUTION: This enterprise value analyzing device is provided with a past finance index analytical function 51 capable of performing a standard business finance analytical approach, an enterprise value evaluation analytical function 52 capable of estimating an enterprise value, future ranking, a theoretical stock price, etc., by preparing future projection (future financial statement), and an enterprise data preparing function 53 capable of inputting and combining financial statements. The function 52 can perform sensitivity analysis of an enterprise value, the assessment of in-pride/capital cost rate, the short time analysis of a competition advantageous term, a capital configuration analysis, etc.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a corporate value analyzing apparatus and a corporate value analyzing method relating to a corporate financial analysis or a corporate value evaluation analysis, and more particularly to a future balance sheet based on a past financial numerical trend of a company or an arbitrary input numerical value. The present invention relates to an enterprise value analysis device and an enterprise value analysis method for preparing a profit and loss statement and supporting various enterprise value simulation analysis based on the statement.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art [Corporate financial analysis] Corporate analysis specialists who belong to financial institutions generally called corporate analysts or securities analysts, rating analysts who evaluate the rating of long-term bonds of companies, and management of business companies Practical staff such as the Planning Department or the Finance Department can calculate financial indicators such as ROE, financial leverage, and cash flow from materials such as securities reports of individual operating companies using accounting information. Perform a financial assessment of a company through chronological or cross-sectional analysis.
Depending on the purpose of conducting corporate financial analysis, the approach to be taken may be different.However, the emphasis differs depending on the position. Application may make a difference.

[Corporate valuation analysis] A general operating company decides on the amount and means of financing, sells a business portfolio, invests in a new business, or acquires a corporate merger, and further optimizes corporate assets, as corporate management financial problems. When dealing with such issues, one way to solve the problem is to check how the corporate value changes when such actions are taken. As an academic field, it is treated as an important theme of Corporate Finenas.However, because it is extremely difficult, in practice, it is often difficult to estimate the corporate value using a simple or ad hoc evaluation analysis model. Many.

[0004]

The above-described conventional corporate financial analysis and corporate value evaluation analysis have the following problems. [Corporate financial analysis] Because the emphasis differs from position to position, there is a difference in opinion on the financial evaluation of a company, particularly between the person in charge of the operating company and the company analyst or rating analyst. Aside from differences in qualitative opinion, the differences in data handling and model differences in a quantitative approach are barren, and the resulting miscommunication can be dangerous.

[Corporate valuation analysis] Ad hoc models developed by professionals of financial institutions and consulting firms, or professionals of advanced business companies, are scattered. Despite being the most important issue, the lack of recursiveness of the evaluation results makes it less useful. An object of the present invention is to solve the problems of the prior art as described above,
It is an object of the present invention to provide an enterprise value analysis device and an enterprise value analysis method that enable refinement, standardization, and integrated use of enterprise financial analysis technology and enterprise value evaluation technology.

[0006]

In the present invention, first, in order to reduce friction in corporate financial analysis,
Assuming the use of business company practitioners, the standard corporate financial analysis approach performed by general corporate analysts or rating analysts has been enabled. In doing so, through reducing the disparity in the quantitative approach, companies are encouraged to have a common understanding of the valuation with the capital market side, and financial actions that are agreed by the capital market side Can be optimized.

[0007] In addition, regarding the corporate value evaluation analysis, a future projection (future financial statements) is created based on the idea of financial behavior in the corporate financial analysis.
Its corporate value, future rating, and theoretical stock price can be estimated. For the corporate value calculation and future rating estimation, a plurality of standard evaluation models are prepared and can be selected according to the user's application. Further, a simulation by changing practically effective parameters such as a capital cost rate and a growth rate of operating revenue, that is, a sensitivity analysis of a corporate value can also be performed.

Further, by inputting a stock price such as a market stock price instead of the theoretical stock price, it is also possible to calculate a so-called implied capital cost ratio included in the stock price. In addition, the analysis of shortening the competitive advantage period and the use of a trade-off model, which is one of the basic approaches to optimal capital structure theory, make it possible to analyze the capital structure based on the theoretical stock price and financial leverage. .

[0009]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below in detail. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the entire system including the enterprise value analysis device to which the present invention is applied.
The enterprise value analysis device of the present invention is realized by, for example, mounting software described later on a commercially available PC (Personal Computer) / server 10. Known PCs / servers 10 include:
CPU 11, memory 12, CRT, KB (Key Port) I
F (interface) circuit 13, HDD (heart test life)
14, a LAN (local area network) IF15, a circuit such as an FDD (Floppy Disk Life), and the like, which are connected by a bus. The CRT / KBIF circuit 13 is connected to a CRT display 17, a KB 18 and a mouse 19. The LANIF 15 is connected to, for example, an in-house LAN 25.

The LAN 25 is connected to various terminals / servers 21, a DB server 22 for managing an in-house DB (database) 23, and a router 24. The router 24 is connected to the Internet 30. The Internet 30 has terminals 40 and 41 and a commercial DB site 4 for managing a commercial DB 43.
2 are connected. The PC / server 10 can read data necessary for implementing the present invention from, for example, the in-house DB 23 or the commercial DB 43, and
Can remotely access the PC / server 10 to execute the software of the present invention.

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of a program constituting the enterprise value analysis device of the present invention. The functions of the software of the present invention are roughly divided into three: past financial index analysis 51, enterprise value evaluation analysis 52, and enterprise data creation 53.
There is one. The past financial index analysis 51 includes three types of index calculation, financial index ranking analysis, and financial index decomposition analysis. The corporate value evaluation analysis 52 includes future financial statement preparation, calculation of assumed rating, and calculation of corporate value index. Is done.

These functions are stored in the HDD,
For example, it is realized by nine function file groups of a spreadsheet program such as EXCEL (registered trademark) and 25 data file groups. The contents of the function file group and the data file group will be described below. The data file group is created for each year.

The files constituting the function file group are as follows. (1) a file for starting the device,
(2) Equipment menu screen, (3) Main screen of past financial analysis and financial index decomposition analysis, (4) Historical financial index ranking analysis, (5)
Mainly graph output part of corporate financial analysis function, (6) graph output part of enterprise value evaluation analysis function, (7) screen for creating future projection, (8) main screen of enterprise value evaluation analysis, (9) credit Main screen of score analysis.

The data file group includes the following.
(1) Financial figures on a non-consolidated basis for the year n years ago (public data), (2) Financial figures on a consolidated basis for the year n years ago (public data), (3) n years ago Data of voluntarily extracted companies based on sole consolidation (n is 1 to
8: Therefore, there are a total of 24 files. ) (2
5) Arbitrarily input corporate financial data (both single and consolidated) The table layout of the data file group will be described. FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing the contents of various index calculation processes. For example, as a layout of a single settlement base year-by-year file, each file has three spreadsheets. The first sheet contains the balance sheet (BS) and income statement (PL) data on the securities report published by the companies for the number of companies published at the end of the year. FIG.
9 is an explanatory diagram showing an item list of the first sheet.

The second sheet stores various financial index numerical data created from the data of the first sheet for the number of companies. The second sheet includes, for example, the following items. Company code, company name, current ratio, quick ratio, equity ratio, fixed ratio, capital cost, debt cost, fixed asset turnover, depreciation, inventory turnover, product turnover, trade receivable turnover, total Capital turnover, gross profit margin, operating profit margin, recurring profit margin, net profit margin, ROA, ROE, sales growth rate, recurring profit growth rate, total assets, sales, recurring profit,
Industry, D / E ratio, cash flow ratio, interest coverage, cash amount, CB rating, number of constituents, EBTDA, cash on hand, FCF, operating cash flow, investment cash flow, financial cash flow, foreign exchange increment, ROI, CFROl, total assets,
Liquidity on hand, Dead capacity ratio, Dependency on borrowing, Net assets ratio, Operating income before amortization of sales, EPI, EP
2, EP3, EP4, EPOCI, EPOC2, EPO
C3, EPOC4. The calculation formulas for calculating the above-mentioned various indices from the data of the first sheet are well-known. For example, by registering each of these well-known calculation formulas in each cell of spreadsheet software, the data of the first sheet can be used to calculate the second sheet Are obtained.

The third sheet is based on the average data by industry based on the individual company brand base data on the second sheet.
It is stored for each of the three categories. The items on the third sheet are the first two items on the second sheet, "Company code" and "Company name".
Is the same as the second sheet, except that is changed to “industry code” and “industry name”.

The layout of the consolidated settlement base year-specific file is basically the same as the above-described single settlement basis year-specific file, but only the following items which are special items of the consolidated settlement are compared with the sole settlement base database. Many. Income tax, allowance for doubtful accounts (current), allowance for doubtful accounts (fixed), consolidation adjustment account (asset), consolidation adjustment account (liability), foreign exchange adjustment account (asset), foreign exchange adjustment account (liability), minority interest ,
Consolidated adjustment income, minority interest income, equity investment income, foreign exchange adjustment income.

The layout of the arbitrary database file includes a financial numerical data sheet and a financial index sheet for each year in the file. The financial figures sheet has the same format as the first sheet on a consolidated basis, and the financial index sheets have the same format as the second sheet on a consolidated basis.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the contents of various financial index calculation processes. In S10, the user is prompted to enter the company code of the company for which the index is to be calculated. S1
In step 1, the user is required to specify one of the following: independent / connected / arbitrary. In S12, the data file corresponding to the information input in S12 is opened, and the data is read into the entire memory. In S13, S10
Identify the desired company code data entered in
In S14, the designated desired financial index is calculated by the same method as the above-described method of calculating the index in the second sheet to complete the financial index table. In S15, the display of the financial index table or the graph is performed. / Output such as printing. Note that a graph display function of well-known spreadsheet software can be used for generating the graph.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing the contents of a form and a graph output by various financial index calculation processes.
FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the individual company balance sheet. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the individual company profit and loss statement. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the individual company fund management table. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the individual company fund management graph. FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of the individual company main basic index table.

FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company main basic index graph. FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of the individual company main application index table. FIG.
FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company main applied index graph. FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the individual company simplified cash flow statement. FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company simplified cash flow graph.

FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor comparison balance sheet. FIG. 18 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the competitor's comparative income statement. FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of the competitor comparison main basic index table. FIG.
It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of a display of a competitor comparison main basic index graph. FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor comparison main applied index table. FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of a competitor comparison main applied index graph. FIG. 23 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of the industry comparison analysis. FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing the calculation logic of the industry comparison analysis.

As described above, in the past financial index analysis function, for example, a listed public company alone base 3300
5 based on the financial statement data of the past 6 periods, a multi-faceted and comprehensive financial analysis is possible for the 2400 companies on a consolidated basis.

The financial index decomposition analysis function includes EPS and EP.
There are two functions. EPS is a stock price per share, which is known as Dupont decomposition, but it was previously limited to only cross section decomposition at a certain point in time. However, in the present invention, by decomposing in time series,
It is possible to pursue the cause of "Why each indicator has made such a transition". In addition, EP is a standard corporate value index, but its decomposition is commonly called value driver analysis, and it is possible to use time-series analysis instead of using only sectional decomposition at a certain point in time. It was developed to become.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the functions of ranking analysis and decomposition analysis. The financial index ranking analysis is a function of outputting a plurality of financial indices of a plurality of companies and sorting the table according to a financial index arbitrarily selected by a user, as shown in FIG. 74, to create a ranking table. . FIG. 74 is an example in which consolidated financial indicators of companies belonging to the power and gas industry are tabulated, and sorting is performed in descending order by capital ratio. FIG.
FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an output example of a cross-sectional analysis of EPS decomposition. FIG. 26 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an output example of the time series analysis of the EPS decomposition. FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an output example of the cross-sectional analysis of the EP decomposition. FIG. 28 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an output example of the time series analysis of the EP decomposition.

Next, the enterprise value evaluation analysis function (52) will be described. FIG. 29 is an explanatory diagram showing a framework of the enterprise value evaluation analysis. When the user performs the corporate value evaluation analysis using the present system, first, the past financial index analysis 70 (51) is executed, for example, a trend analysis is performed, and “profit plan” is performed based on the analysis result. , A capital strategy, a dividend policy, and a capital policy are set 71. Next, based on this financial strategy, P
The LUG (calculation adjustment subject) setting 72 is performed. PLUG is an adjustment valve for maintaining consistency between the balance sheet, which is the future financial statements, and the income statement. The two tables need to be accounting related, but to be consistent,
One subject on the balance sheet needs to be a dependent variable that depends on other variables. PLUG about this subject
Call.

Next, preparation 73 of future financial statements including a future balance sheet and a profit and loss statement is performed. Then, based on the future financial statements, the main financial index value and the assumed rating at the future time are obtained (74). In addition, the capital cost and the bankruptcy probability are estimated 75 and the corporate value is evaluated 76. Finally, an evaluation 77 of the financial strategy initially set is performed from these evaluation results, and the financial strategy is modified (71) based on the evaluation result, and the evaluation is repeated.

FIG. 30 is a flowchart showing the contents of the future financial statement preparation part in the enterprise value evaluation analysis processing. In S30, the company code is input, and in S31, the corresponding financial data is obtained. In S32, the financial data is processed, and in S33, the past financial index data is displayed. The above processing method is the same as the processing shown in FIG. FIG. 33 shows the past financial data 1 (BS, P for the past five terms) in the future financial statement preparation process.
It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of a display of L). FIG. 34 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the past financial data 2 (past dividend policy and capital composition) in the future financial statement creation processing. FIG.
Is past financial data 3 in the future financial statement preparation process
It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of a display of (past capital investment situation).

In S34, it is determined whether or not to perform D / E ratio control. If so, the process proceeds to S35. In S35, any one of “Liquidity at hand”, “Short-term debt”, and “Other liquidity debt” is selected as PLUG. FIG. 36 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a screen (71, 72) for setting a financial strategy and a PLUG in a future financial statement preparation process.

In S36, a future financial data input screen is displayed. FIG. 37 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a future financial statement (projection) creation screen. In S37, future financial data is input. FIG. 37 shows an example of the case where the liquidity at hand is selected for PLUG. In this case,
First, the balance sheet accounts include accounts receivable, inventories, other current assets, land, intangible assets, investments, etc., allowance for doubtful accounts, foreign exchange adjustment accounts (asset), accounts payable, short-term loans,
With respect to other current liabilities, long-term debt + corporate bonds, convertible bonds, other fixed liabilities, foreign exchange adjustment account (liability portion), and minority interests, users arbitrarily enter forecast values in the future financial data cell in FIG. Also, about the income statement,
Net sales, operating income, interest income, interest expense, other non-operating income, extraordinary income, minority interests, and other adjustments, as well as other dividends, effective tax rates, depreciation, capital investment, and executive compensation input. However, the present apparatus can automatically generate future numerical values of the above-mentioned various accounts by trend analysis of past data even if the user does not make an input himself. In FIG. 37, there is a method selection in the eighth column of the table.
The future numerical value calculated based on the past five-year average growth rate based on the recent numerical value of the actual result is output. When the method selection is set to 0 and an arbitrary elongation percentage in the column cell to the right thereof is input, a future numerical value calculated based on the input elongation percentage is output. It can also automatically set the ratio to sales. When any of the above items is automatically or randomly entered, the other items in the balance sheet and the income statement are determined by the well-known basic accounting formula incorporated in the spreadsheet program. In S38, a projection is automatically created according to the set PLUG logic, while maintaining the consistency between BS and PL.

FIG. 62 is an explanatory diagram showing a projection creation logic, that is, a method of calculating each index of BS and PL. The logic for creating a projection will be described with reference to sales receivables as an example. As shown in FIG. 62, for the receivable, a numerical value can be set based on a planned numerical value (arbitrarily input by the user), regression 1, regression 2, and past growth rate average. Here, the regression 1 means “regression in which the dependent variable is the variable and the explanatory variable is sales”, as also noted below FIG. That is, from the time-series data of past sales and trade receivables, the correlation (trade receivable = regression coefficient x sales) is derived, and future trade receivables are calculated by giving future sales as given. How to In addition, as noted in Regression 2, it means “Regression with the dependent variable as the variable width of the variable and the explanatory variable as the sales variation width”, which indicates the past change in sales and change in trade receivables. This method is to calculate the future receivables by deriving the correlation (receivable change width = regression coefficient x sales change width) from the time series data of the width and setting future sales as given. . As described above, the user can prepare various future financial statements by freely selecting each financial subject.
FIG. 63 is an explanatory diagram showing the projection creation logic when PLUG = hand liquidity, that is, the calculation procedure of each index of BS and PL. FIG. 64 is an explanatory diagram showing the projection creation logic when PLUG = short-term borrowing, that is, the calculation procedure of each index of BS and PL. FIG. 65 is an explanatory diagram showing the points to be considered in calculation of the projection creation logic.

In S39, the prepared future financial statements are output. FIG. 38 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a result display after preparing future financial statements. In this example, BS and PL up to seven years from a specific company are created.

In S40, a check analysis of future financial statements is performed based on various outputs as described below. FIG. 39 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of a balance sheet graph after the creation of future financial statements. FIG. 40 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the profit and loss statement graph after preparing future financial statements. FIG.
FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a main index table after preparing future financial statements. FIG. 42 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the main index graph after the preparation of future financial statements.

FIG. 43 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the fund management table after preparing future financial statements. FIG. 44 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the fund management table graph after the creation of future financial statements. FIG. 45 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the simplified cash flow table after preparing future financial statements. FIG. 46 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a simplified cash flow graph after preparing future financial statements. FIG. 47 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a rating estimation result after preparing future financial statements. The estimation of the rating will be described later.

As described above, the future financial statement creation function of the present invention makes it possible to perform a corporate value simulation much more easily than in the past by using past corporate financial figures. Also, in order to prepare future financial statements, multiple logics are provided for setting PLUGs and estimating the future of each indicator, making it possible to construct a very flexible projection (future plan). In addition, there is also a function to check the reality of the prepared future financial statements by using the future PL graph, future BS composition diagram, future financial basic index, future fund management table, and future simplified cash flow table.

In S41, it is determined whether or not the created future financial data is to be saved as a scenario. If it is to be saved, the flow shifts to S42 to display a scenario management screen. FIG. 48 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a display screen for scenario management. In S43, the user names the created future financial data on the screen of FIG.
In, the scenario data is stored in a scenario DB. FIG. 60 is an explanatory diagram showing the storage item names of the scenario data. In the apparatus of the present invention, using this scenario management function, an optimistic scenario, a pessimistic scenario, a moderate scenario thereof, and the like can be assumed and evaluated for a financial plan, and a comparative analysis of corporate value and the like can be easily performed. Become.

FIG. 31 is a flowchart showing the contents of the enterprise value index calculation part in the enterprise value evaluation analysis processing. In S50, it is determined whether or not to use the saved scenario data. If not, the process proceeds to S51, where a desired company code is input, and a process of creating future financial statements shown in FIG. 30 is executed. If the scenario data is used, the process proceeds to S52, where a scenario management screen shown in FIG. 48 is displayed. In S53, the scenario name is input (designated). In S54, the scenario data is obtained from the scenario DB. I do.

At S55, future financial data is set (read). In S56, the assumed rating is calculated, and the evaluation is performed. In an embodiment of the present invention,
The numerical value of the rating is called a credit score. FIG. 50 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a main screen for credit score analysis.

There are seven credit score estimation models that can be handled by the present apparatus. The model models the relationship between financial figures, financial indicators, and rating levels using multiple regression analysis. A model is constructed using financial figures or financial indices as explanatory variables and the type of business to which the company belongs as a dummy factor. If financial figures are taken as explanatory variables, logarithmic processing of the underlying data is performed. The logarithmic processing is
This is for adjusting the numerical level of the explanatory variable. That is, for example, total capital used is 10 billion yen and ROA is 5.0%
If the two are explanatory variables, the regression coefficient of total capital used will be very small, while the regression coefficient of ROA will be relatively high. In order to test the statistical significance, such a situation is not good, so for total capital used, logarithmic processing (Ln (10 billion) = 23.025) is used to bring the numerical level closer to a certain level. is there.

The contents of each credit score estimation model are as follows. (1) Traditional model ... R & I rating, 1996
Model that tried to explain with financial figures and financial indicator variables used at the time of the appropriate debt standard check that existed until January. (2) R & I stand-alone model: A model that attempts to explain R &I's rating on a non-consolidated basis based on financial figures and indicators. (3) R & I consolidated model: A model in which R & I ratings are explained using consolidated financial figures and financial indicators. (4) Moody'S stand-alone model: A model that tries to explain Moody'S's rating on a non-consolidated basis based on financial figures and indicators. (5) Moody'S consolidated model: A model that describes the Moody'S rating using financial figures and financial indicators based on consolidated financial statements. (6) JCR non-consolidated model: A model in which JCR's rating is explained using financial figures and financial indicators on a non-consolidated basis. (7) JCR consolidated model: A model in which JCR's rating is explained using financial figures and indicators based on consolidated financial statements.

In the credit score analysis function, the rating of R & I, JCR, and Moody's, which are considered to be major rating companies, is evaluated using financial figures, financial indicators, and an estimation model that can explain the rating level. Or, if the financial index changes, it is possible to determine how much the credit score improves or falls. That is, when an arbitrary numerical value is entered in the cell portion in the row of the change rate in FIG. 50, the current subject is changed.
It is possible to observe the change in the numerical level of the credit score. To explain the “total capital used” in the leftmost column of FIG. 50, in this case, the change rate portion is 10.0.
% Has been entered. The current value is 764409.
Therefore, the total capital used for a 10.0% rise is
It is 840850 as shown in the cell under the rate of change.
Further below that is a score change of 0.15. This means that the total used capital of the current 764409 is 10%
When the credit score rises to 840850, it means that the credit score increases by 0.15. In addition, it is possible to confirm the transition of the credit score of an individual company and the past credit score up to the present. FIG. 71 is an explanatory diagram showing explanatory variables, values of regression coefficients, and examples of calculation formulas of each credit score estimation model. FIG. 72 is an explanatory diagram showing industry factor numerical values of each credit score estimation model. FIG. 73 is an explanatory diagram showing the correspondence between the rating and the credit score.

In S57, it is determined whether or not to use the assumed rating. If not, the flow shifts to S58 to input arbitrary rating data. FIG. 49 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a setting screen of a corporate value calculation parameter. On this screen, in addition to the setting of the assumed rating, the setting of the target company or the target financial scenario, the setting of the capital cost, and the selection of the enterprise value calculation method can also be performed.

In S59, the capital cost rate is evaluated. For the estimation of the cost of capital, which is considered to be the most difficult to estimate from the corporate value analysis, comprehensively available logic is provided, and the corporate value calculation from various concepts can be easily performed. is there. FIG. 51 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a screen for specifying a method of setting a capital cost ratio. As shown in Figure 51, the cost of capital rate is basically WACC
, The components of the cost of equity ratio and the cost of debt capital ratio can be selected and set from a plurality of options. Specifically, the debt / cost of capital ratio is 3
Select the type that is appropriate. That is, 1)
The average of the actual debt cost ratio for the past five periods, 2) JGB / Yield by year + credit spread, 3) Choose from the methods calculated from the figures in the future financial statements. Here, in the method 2), the yield of the government bond is arbitrarily inputted, but the credit spread is automatically calculated by the method shown in FIG. That is, a credit spread is analytically derived from a cumulative default probability at a future time by the rating based on the rating obtained by a credit score estimation model or the like (the derivation formula is also shown in FIG. 66). The cumulative default probability table is shown in FIG. 66, and uses the announcement data of Moody'S. Next, based on the CAPM (Capital Asset Price Model) developed by Sharp et al., The cost of equity ratio can be set arbitrarily or its logic can be selected for its components, risk free rate, β, and risk premium. It has become. The risk-free rate can be selected from a method of simply setting the yield on government bonds and a method using the yield of government bonds by term. For this yield by maturity, the term structure of interest rates at the future time is required.
The period structure at the future time is derived by inputting the yield at the current time for each term in the sheet shown in FIG. 61, and obtaining the yield by year at the future time using the relationship between the spot rate and the forward rate. I have. As for β, the latest β and the past average value can be used. The risk premium is set arbitrarily.

In S60 to S62, the corporate value (EP1 to EP1) is determined based on whether the invested capital model and the financial balance are taken into consideration on the screen shown in FIG.
4) Select a model, calculate the selected corporate value index in S63, and output the calculation result in S64.

In the corporate value analysis function, four types of EP1 to EP4 are uniquely prepared as corporate value indexes according to the purpose of the corporate financial analysis while basically using EVA as a basis. EP for analysis taking financial account into account
Use 1 or EP2, otherwise use EP3 or EP4. EP2 or EP4 for funding design
It is convenient to use EP1 or EP3 when developing a restructuring plan for corporate assets. In addition, when calculating each corporate value index, it is possible to perform an analysis taking into account the bankruptcy cost based on the bankruptcy probability.

FIG. 67 is an explanatory diagram showing the basis of the EP calculation in the enterprise value analysis. FIG. 68 is an explanatory diagram showing a lineup (model) of EP calculation formulas in the enterprise value analysis. FIG. 69 is an explanatory diagram showing a method of calculating a corporate value in the corporate value analysis. FIG. 70 is an explanatory diagram showing a method of considering bankruptcy costs in a corporate value analysis. FIG. 52 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a display example of a calculation result of a corporate value calculated by the EP1 model.

The apparatus of the present invention uses the analysis of the enterprise value calculated based on the future projection, the sensitivity analysis, the CAP (competitive advantage period) analysis, the capital structure analysis, the implied analysis, and the meaning of the numerical value. Provides a mechanism to support quantitative interpretation of FIG. 32 is a flowchart showing the contents of the corporate value internal analysis part in the corporate value evaluation analysis processing.

In S70, the analysis content is selected on the screen shown in FIG. In S71, an EP decomposition analysis is performed in the future, and according to the selected model logic,
Decompose into factors that are components of EP. FIG.
FIG. 5 is an explanatory view showing an example of an output screen of a future EP decomposition analysis result. FIG. 54 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a graph output screen of a future EP decomposition analysis result.

At S71, a value driver sensitivity analysis is performed, and according to the selected model logic,
Calculate the change in corporate value when the factor which is a component of the EP is slightly changed. FIG. 55 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an output screen of the value driver sensitivity analysis result. In this value driver sensitivity analysis, it is possible to confirm the degree of change in the theoretical stock price by inputting an appropriate change rate for various initial variables. The five variables that can be analyzed for sensitivity are NOPAT growth rate, invested capital growth rate, invested capital NOPAT rate, capital cost rate, and perpetual growth rate. The change value is entered by default under each variable, but if you enter an arbitrary value and recalculate, the calculation result will be displayed.

The graph in the middle of the screen shows the range of change in corporate value,
The lower graph shows the change in the theoretical stock price. For example, if the NOPAT growth rate is 3.0%, the theoretical stock price is calculated from the corporate value when the NOPAT forecast value predicted in the future financial statements is further increased by 3%, and the original NOPAT is calculated.
Outputs the change from the theoretical stock price at the T growth rate. Regarding the cost of capital, WACC will
This shows the change in the theoretical stock price when the input value changes uniformly.

At S73, a capital structure analysis is performed. FIG. 56 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an output screen of the capital structure analysis result. In the capital structure analysis, when the state of the calculation result of the enterprise value in FIG. 52 described above is used as a base and the DE ratio is changed as a reference, the theoretical stock price shows how much it changes. However, as noted in the screen, the calculation here is based on the calculation of the theoretical stock price by mechanically changing the capital composition ratio. It ignores the fact that the configuration also changes. "

In the upper right graph, the horizontal axis indicates the DE ratio, and the vertical axis indicates the theoretical stock price, and the change is shown. In the lower right graph, the horizontal axis indicates the DE ratio, and the vertical axis indicates the credit score. As the DE ratio increases, the theoretical stock price increases, but the credit score (rating) decreases. By increasing the DE ratio change width at the top of the graph, it is possible to confirm how high the theoretical stock price can be when a very high DE ratio is set. By increasing the DE ratio,
The increase in debt capital relative to shareholders' equity will increase the theoretical stock price due to a lower cost of capital ratio. But DE
Setting the ratio above a certain level will lower the rating, increasing the probability of bankruptcy and reducing the theoretical stock price. That is, theoretically, the DE ratio that can maximize the theoretical stock price can be calculated and confirmed.

At S74, an implied analysis is performed. FIG. 57 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of an output screen of an implied analysis result. Implied analysis recalls the relationship between Implied Volatility and option prices in the options world. When obtaining a theoretical stock price, it is usually calculated after setting a number of parameters.
Here, as the reverse, for example, referring to a market stock price or the like, when a theoretical stock price is given, what happens to various parameters of the projection is calculated. What can be analyzed here is return on invested capital, WACC, and business risk β.

In S75, CAP analysis is performed.
FIG. 58 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of an output screen of the CAP analysis result. CAP stands for Competitive Advance Period,
Mean competitive advantage period. In the present invention, for convenience,
The company value analysis is based on the future scenario of the period, but this implies that the competitive advantage period of the target company is assumed to be 7 years. Here, we can see how the corporate value and theoretical stock price will be affected if the last seven years are shortened, that is, if competitive advantage is reduced. In the example of Sankyo of FIG.
If the theoretical stock price of 91 yen is three years, 3612
It shows that it becomes a circle.

Finally, the company data creation function 53 will be described. In this system, the same analysis as that of a public company is performed by inputting and setting a balance sheet and a profit and loss statement and an additional item for each private company or business unit. It is possible to do. Specifically, after inputting the data of the display subject into the input table shown in FIG. 75,
If you set the code, company name, and type of business of the unpublished company, and instruct saving, a database in exactly the same format as the existing public company is created. Further, by providing a combining function of combining past financial statement data of a plurality of existing companies, it is possible to create combined financial data based on the equity pooling method and perform a corporate value simulation based on the combined financial data. That is, by performing a pro forma analysis at the time of M & A, the merger effect from a quantitative viewpoint can be confirmed at the corporate value level.

[0056]

As described above, in the present invention,
Refined corporate financial analysis technology and corporate value evaluation technology,
Because it can be standardized and integrated, it can be used as a corporate evaluation specialist for financial institutions, etc.
Not only will the finance department's practitioners contribute to the streamlining and advancement of business processing, but also by improving the consistency of the logic between the capital market and the corporate management, it can be expected to facilitate communication between the two. This has the effect.

[0057] In particular, the manager of the operating company or the person in charge of operation monitors the current corporate value or theoretical stock price in order to realize the management of improving corporate value or shareholder value in the future by using the present invention. And what kind of business and financial strategies should be built and executed accordingly. More specifically, in anticipation of refinancing of dead finance procurement in the future, consider an effective financial strategy to improve the current rating at least a little, or quantify the so-called synergy effect in the M & A & D strategy. This has the effect that the strategy can be evaluated from the viewpoint of corporate value, theoretical stock price, and rating.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing a program configuration of a corporate value analysis device of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the entire system including the enterprise value analysis device of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing the contents of various index calculation processes.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the contents of various financial index calculation processes.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing contents of a form and a graph output by various financial index calculation processes.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram illustrating functions of ranking analysis and decomposition analysis.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company balance sheet;

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company profit and loss statement.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company fund management table.

FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company fund management graph.

FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company main basic index table.

FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company main basic index graph.

FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company main application index table.

FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company main application index graph.

FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company simplified cash flow statement;

FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an individual company simplified cash flow graph.

FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of another company's comparative balance sheet.

FIG. 18 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor's comparative income statement.

FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor comparison main basic index table.

FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor comparison main basic index graph.

FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor comparison main applied index table.

FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a competitor comparison main applied index graph.

FIG. 23 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of an intra-industry comparative analysis.

FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing calculation logic of an intra-industry comparative analysis.

FIG. 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an output example of a cross-sectional analysis of the EPS decomposition.

FIG. 26 is an explanatory diagram showing an output example of a time series analysis of the EPS decomposition.

FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram showing an output example of a cross-sectional analysis of EP decomposition.

FIG. 28 is an explanatory diagram showing an output example of a time series analysis of EP decomposition.

FIG. 29 is an explanatory diagram showing a framework of a corporate value evaluation analysis.

FIG. 30 is a flowchart showing the contents of a future financial statement preparation part in the enterprise value evaluation analysis processing.

FIG. 31 is a flowchart showing the contents of an enterprise value index calculation part in the enterprise value evaluation analysis processing.

FIG. 32 is a flowchart showing the contents of a corporate value internal analysis part in the corporate value evaluation analysis processing.

FIG. 33 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of past financial data 1 in a future financial statement creation process.

FIG. 34 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of past financial data 2 in a future financial statement creation process.

FIG. 35 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of past financial data 3 in a future financial statement creation process.

FIG. 36 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a screen (71, 72) for setting a financial strategy and a PLUG in a future financial statement creation process.

FIG. 37 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a future financial statement (projection) creation screen.

FIG. 38 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a result display after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 39 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a balance sheet graph after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 40 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a profit and loss statement graph after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 41 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a main index table after creating future financial statements.

FIG. 42 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a main index graph after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 43 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a fund management table after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 44 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a fund management table graph after creating future financial statements.

FIG. 45 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a simplified cash flow table after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 46 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a simplified cash flow graph after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 47 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a rating estimation result after preparing future financial statements.

FIG. 48 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen for scenario management.

FIG. 49 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a screen for setting corporate value calculation parameters.

FIG. 50 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a main screen for credit score analysis.

FIG. 51 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a screen for specifying a method of setting a capital cost rate.

FIG. 52 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of a calculation result of a corporate value calculated by the EP1 model.

FIG. 53 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an output screen of a future EP decomposition analysis result.

FIG. 54 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a graph output screen of a future EP decomposition analysis result.

FIG. 55 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an output screen of a value driver sensitivity analysis result.

FIG. 56 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an output screen of a capital structure analysis result.

FIG. 57 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an output screen of an implied analysis result.

FIG. 58 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of an output screen of a CAP analysis result.

FIG. 59 is an explanatory diagram showing an item list of a first sheet.

FIG. 60 is an explanatory diagram showing storage item names of scenario data.

FIG. 61 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an interest data input screen.

FIG. 62: Projection creation logic, ie, BS,
It is explanatory drawing which shows the calculation method of each parameter | index of PL.

FIG. 63 is an explanatory diagram showing a projection creation logic when PLUG = hand liquidity, that is, a calculation procedure of each index of BS and PL.

FIG. 64 is an explanatory diagram showing a projection creation logic when PLUG = short-term borrowing, that is, a calculation procedure of each index of BS and PL.

FIG. 65 is an explanatory diagram showing points to be considered in calculation of the projection creation logic.

FIG. 66 is an explanatory diagram showing a credit spread calculation method based on the cumulative default probability.

FIG. 67 is an explanatory diagram showing the basis of the EP calculation in the corporate value analysis.

FIG. 68 is an explanatory diagram showing a lineup (model) of EP calculation formulas in a corporate value analysis.

FIG. 69 is an explanatory diagram showing a method of calculating a corporate value in a corporate value analysis.

FIG. 70 is an explanatory diagram showing a method of considering bankruptcy costs in a corporate value analysis.

FIG. 71 is an explanatory diagram showing explanatory variables, values of regression coefficients, and examples of calculation formulas of each credit score estimation model.

FIG. 72 is an explanatory diagram showing industry factor numerical values of each credit score estimation model.

FIG. 73 is an explanatory diagram showing the correspondence between ratings and credit scores.

FIG. 74 is an explanatory diagram showing an output example of financial index ranking analysis.

FIG. 75 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a company data input screen.

[Explanation of symbols]

10 PC / server, 11 CPU, 12 memory, 1
3 CRT, KBIF circuit, 14 HDD, 15 LA
NIF, 16: FDD, 17: CRT, 18: KB, 1
9 mouse, 21 terminal / server, 22 DB server,
23 ... in-house DB, 24 ... router, 25 ... LAN, 30 ...
Internet, 40, 41 terminal, 42 commercial DB site, 43 commercial DB, 50 main menu, 51
Past financial index analysis, 52: Corporate value evaluation analysis, 53: Corporate data creation, 70: Past actual financial analysis, 71: Setting of financial strategy, 72: Setting of PLUG, 73: Creation of future financial statements, 74: Future Financial index value, assumed rating confirmation, 75 ...
Estimation of capital cost, bankruptcy probability, 76 ... Evaluation of corporate value,
77… Evaluation of financial strategy

Claims (13)

[Claims] 1. An enterprise value analyzer having past financial index value calculating means for calculating various financial index values based on past financial statement data published by a company, wherein said past financial statement data and various financial indexes An enterprise value analysis device comprising: future financial statement data generating means for generating future financial statement data based on a value. 2. The future financial statement data generation means includes a calculation method setting means for setting a calculation method of future financial statements by setting a financial strategy and a calculation adjustment item. The corporate value analysis device according to 1. 3. The method according to claim 3, further comprising:
2. The enterprise value analysis device according to claim 1, further comprising a future rating estimating means for estimating a future rating. 4. The apparatus according to claim 1, wherein said future rating estimating means includes a correlation degree displaying means for calculating and displaying a degree of correlation between the rating and various financial indices. 5. Further, based on said future financial statement data,
2. The enterprise value analysis device according to claim 1, further comprising a capital cost ratio estimating means for estimating a future capital cost ratio. 6. Further, based on said future financial statement data,
2. The enterprise value analysis device according to claim 1, further comprising a bankruptcy probability estimating means for estimating a future bankruptcy probability. 7. Further, based on said future financial statement data,
A capital cost rate estimating means for estimating a future cost of capital rate, a bankruptcy probability estimating means for estimating a future bankruptcy probability based on the future financial statement data, and the future financial statement data, the future capital cost rate, 2. The enterprise value analysis device according to claim 1, further comprising: enterprise value estimation means for quantitatively estimating a future enterprise value based on a future bankruptcy probability. 8. The enterprise according to claim 7, wherein said enterprise value estimation means includes sensitivity analysis means for calculating an enterprise value fluctuation when a parameter which is a component of the enterprise value is slightly changed. Value analyzer. 9. The method according to claim 9, wherein said enterprise value estimation means includes an implied analysis means for calculating an implied capital cost ratio included in the stock price by inputting a market stock price instead of a theoretical stock price. The corporate value analysis device according to claim 7. 10. The enterprise value analyzing apparatus according to claim 7, wherein said enterprise value estimating means includes a competitive advantage period shortening analyzing means for calculating an enterprise value when the competitive advantage period is shortened. . 11. The method according to claim 1, wherein said means for estimating a corporate value uses a trade-off model, which is one of the basic approaches to the theory of optimal capital structure, to analyze the capital structure of a trade-off state based on theoretical stock price and financial leverage. The enterprise value analysis device according to claim 7, further comprising analysis means. 12. A corporate value analyzer having past financial index value calculating means for calculating various financial index values based on past financial statement data published by a company, wherein said past financial statement data of a plurality of existing companies is provided. A corporate value analysis device comprising a synthesizing means for synthesizing the data. 13. A step of calculating various financial index values based on past financial statement data published by a company, and generating future financial statement data based on the past financial statement data and various financial index values. A method of analyzing corporate value using a computer.