JP2017111695A - Business feasibility analyzing device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accomplish sensitivity analysis and goal seeking on the basis of a balance structure describing file without entailing heavy workload.SOLUTION: A business feasibility analyzing device stores a balance structure describing file. The business feasibility analyzing device accepts cause variables and result variables the user designates out of variables contained in the balance structure describing file. Then the business feasibility analyzing device, assuming that other variables are fixed variables, displays a graphic pattern showing the relationship between the cause variables and the result variables. Also, the business feasibility analyzing device accepts the user's designation of target variables, searched-for variables and restrictive variables the user designates out of the variables contained in the balance structure describing file. Then the business feasibility analyzing device, assuming that other variables are fixed variables, calculates searched-for variables that the target variables need in order to take the target value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 7

Description

  The present invention relates to a business analysis device.

  Prior to executing a business, a company naturally anticipates and evaluates the profitability of the business. As a general evaluation method, there is a method of setting a plurality of preconditions such as income, expenditure, depreciation, interest expense, tax, etc. and calculating a management index such as a cumulative profit for each precondition. A typical example of a business is a project. In the project, the investment is made in the first period, and the investment amount is recovered by the profits continuously recorded over the subsequent periods.

  The cash flow prediction apparatus of Patent Literature 1 calculates a predicted value such as a future tax rate, a borrowing interest rate, and a rent fluctuation rate from a past value such as a tax rate, a borrowing interest rate, and a rent fluctuation rate. Then, a predicted value is obtained at random from each of the tax rate, the borrowing interest rate, the rent fluctuation rate, and the like. Furthermore, the predicted value acquired with respect to the calculation formula of the scenario component selected by the user is input, and the predicted cash flow of each future period is calculated. At this time, the cash flow prediction apparatus outputs the predicted cash flow as a probability distribution.

  The business feasibility evaluation device of Patent Literature 2 stores a balance structure description file. The balance structure description file stores a calculation formula indicating the balance structure of the project and a premise value input to the calculation formula. The premise value is defined by, for example, a discrete probability distribution type. The business feasibility evaluation apparatus of Patent Document 2 reads a balance structure description file and displays, for example, future income and balance in a probability distribution format.

JP 2004-38804 A Japanese Patent Laying-Open No. 2015-32023

  For example, sales, variable costs, and fixed costs are assumed as items that affect profits. Companies attach importance to sensitivity analysis of how much profit increases or decreases as a result of increasing or decreasing each item. For example, if variable costs have the greatest impact on profits, an entity will first consider reducing variable costs in preference to increasing sales and decreasing fixed costs. Spider and tornado charts are often used for such sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a goal seek method is often used in which a target value for profit is set first and a combination of sales, variable costs, and fixed costs for realizing the target value is calculated backward.

  However, the cash flow prediction apparatus of Patent Document 1 and the business feasibility evaluation apparatus of Patent Document 2 can simulate values such as profits after changing the premise, but perform sensitivity analysis and goal seeking. Requires a separate policy. When using a balance structure description file, for example, when trying to analyze the sensitivity to profits, or to seek a goal that targets a certain profit level, first create the input conditions on a spreadsheet and then input the input conditions to the sensitivity analysis application. Will be passed. Creating input conditions on this spreadsheet software requires experience and effort. Therefore, an object of the business analysis device of the present invention is to perform sensitivity analysis and goal seeking without taking time and effort based on a balance structure description file.

The business analysis device of the present invention stores a balance structure description file. The business analysis device accepts that the user designates a cause variable and a result variable from among variables included in the balance structure description file. Then, the business feasibility analysis apparatus regards other variables as fixed variables and displays a graphic indicating the relationship between the cause variable and the result variable. The business analysis device accepts that the user designates a target variable, a searched variable, and a constraint variable from among variables included in the balance structure description file. Then, the business feasibility analysis apparatus regards other variables as fixed variables, and calculates a search target variable for the target variable to take a target value.
Other means will be described in the embodiment for carrying out the invention.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to perform sensitivity analysis and goal seeking without taking time and effort based on the balance structure description file.

(A), (b) and (c) is a figure explaining the sensitivity analysis by a comparative example. It is a figure explaining the goal seek by a comparative example. It is a block diagram of business property analyzer. It is a figure which shows the balance structure description file. It is a figure which shows a part of balance structure description file. It is a figure which shows the spider chart (table type | formula) of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the spider chart (graph type) of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the tornado chart (table type | formula) of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the tornado chart (graph format) of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the goal seek chart (graph and a table type) of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the goal seek chart (graph and a table type) of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the goal seek chart (table type | formula) of this embodiment. It is a flowchart of the whole processing procedure.

(Comparative example)
The sensitivity analysis by a comparative example is demonstrated along FIG. Assume that sensitivity analysis is performed using the sensitivity analysis application of the comparative example on the assumption that a simple quantity relationship of “profit = sales—fixed cost—variable cost” is established. First, the user of the sensitivity analysis application creates a table as shown in FIG. Next, the user inputs the table of FIG. 1A to the sensitivity analysis application. Then, the sensitivity analysis application displays a spider chart (FIG. 1B) and a tornado chart (FIG. 1C).

  In the spider chart of FIG. 1 (b), the slope of the line graph indicates the effect of each of sales, fixed costs and variable costs on profits. The point with the largest profit value on the vertical axis corresponds to the case where the variable cost is reduced by 20% compared to the standard case. The point with the smallest profit value on the vertical axis corresponds to the case where the variable cost increased by 20% compared to the standard case. In other words, variable costs have the largest impact on profits. In addition, the horizontal axis of FIG.1 (b) has shown the fluctuation rate.

  In the tornado chart of FIG. 1 (c), the horizontal width of the band graph indicates the effect of sales, fixed costs, and variable costs on profits. For example, as shown in FIG. 1A, when the variable cost fluctuates in the range of 9.6 million yen to 14.4 million yen, the profit fluctuates in the range of 2.6 million yen to 7,400,000 yen. The horizontal width of the variable cost band graph is the largest. In other words, variable costs have the largest impact on profits.

  It takes experience and effort for the user to actually create the table of FIG. First, there are actually many items that affect profits in addition to sales, fixed costs, and variable costs. It is difficult in the first place to find a significant item among these items. It is also difficult to determine the fluctuation range (± 20%, etc.) with respect to the standard case. Further, for example, when the sales amount and the fixed cost change simultaneously and independently (the three-dimensional space is expressed two-dimensionally), the structure of the table becomes complicated. In the end, the more detailed analysis is done, the more rows and columns in the table.

  In the tornado chart (FIG. 1C), for example, the minimum value of variable costs of 9.6 million yen corresponds to the maximum value of profit of 7,400,000 yen. The maximum variable cost of 14.4 million yen corresponds to the minimum profit of 2.6 million yen. However, when the variable cost changes in the range of 9.6 million yen to 14.4 million yen, the profit may take a minimum value or a maximum value. When the maximum value of profit is larger than 7,400,000 yen, or when the minimum value of profit is smaller than 2.6 million yen, the value that can be read as the maximum value or the minimum value of profit in FIG. Furthermore, for the sensitivity analysis application, the process of determining the fluctuation range of profit and the process of arranging items such as sales in the order of the large fluctuation range are not easy, and need to be defined and set by the user.

  The goal seek according to the comparative example will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is an example in which the physique index application of the comparative example calculates a physique index (BMI, Body Mass Index). BMI is a value obtained by dividing weight (kg) by the square of height (m). Now, for example, a common ideal BMI is given to all employees in a certain workplace. Employee heights vary from person to person and do not change easily. However, employee weight can vary considerably depending on individual efforts. Therefore, the weight that achieves the ideal value of BMI is calculated for each employee while maintaining the current height.

The operation of FIG. 2 for the user (physician etc.) of the physique index application is as follows.
(1) “23.07” is input to the cell B6 as an ideal value.
(2) The height “153” of an employee is entered into cell B3.
(3) The physique index application reversely calculates the weight, visually recognizes that the reverse calculation result “54” is displayed in the cell B4, and stores the reverse calculation result as necessary.
(4) The processes (2) and (3) are repeated for all employees.

Such a user must repeat the input by the number of employees. In the example of FIG. 2, there are three variables, height, weight and BMI, which are very few. However, there are cases where there are 10 types of variables, one of which is determined as the target value, the values of the 8 types of variables are changed variously, and the values of the remaining 1 type of variables are calculated backward. In such a case, the user's input burden becomes very large.
Hereinafter, a mode for carrying out the present invention (referred to as “the present embodiment”) will be described with reference to the drawings and the like.

(Business analysis device)
A configuration of the business analysis device 1 will be described with reference to FIG. The business analysis device 1 is a general computer. The business analysis device 1 includes a central control device 11, an input device 12 such as a keyboard and a mouse, an output device 13 such as a display, a main storage device 14, and an auxiliary storage device 15. These are connected to each other by a bus. The designation receiving unit 21, the calculation unit 22, and the display control unit 23 in the main storage device 14 are programs. Thereafter, when the subject is described as “XX section”, the central control device 11 reads out each program from the auxiliary storage device 15 and loads it into the main storage device 14, and then the function of each program (detailed later). Shall be realized. The auxiliary storage device 15 stores a balance structure description file 31.

(Balance structure description file)
The balance structure description file 31 will be described with reference to FIG. In the balance structure description file 31, items are stored in the item column 102, the operator column 103 is an operator, the value 1 column 104 is a value 1, and the value 2 column 105 is associated with the category stored in the prefix column 101. Stores the value 2 and the value3 column 106 stores the value 3.

  The division of the prefix column 101 is “Item B” in any line. Although not shown in FIG. 4, for example, the name of the project is stored in the item column 102 of the line whose classification is “ProjectName”. What is important in the present embodiment is a line whose classification is “Item B”, and “Item B” means “definition”. Definitions include defining formulas for calculating item values, specifying item values themselves, specifying probability distributions of item values by parameters, defining annual rate of change of item values, etc. (Details below). Each row in FIG. 4 will be described by dividing it into the following types 1 to 6.

(Type 1: Calculation formulas for four arithmetic operations)
Rows 131, 133, 137, 140, 141, 144, 148 and 152 in FIG. 4 define calculation formulas related to four arithmetic operations. For example, the row 131 defines a calculation formula “profit = sales−fixed cost−variable cost”. A row 133 defines a calculation formula “sales = sales price × sales amount”. Line 137 defines a calculation formula “fixed cost = personnel cost + rental land fee”. The row 140 defines a calculation formula of “variable cost = electricity cost + chemical cost + component cost”.

(Type 2: Calculation formula related to operations other than four arithmetic operations)
Lines 132 and 156 define calculation formulas related to operations other than the four arithmetic operations. Line 132 defines that an IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is calculated in a predetermined manner based on the investment amount and the profit (before depreciation). Now, assuming that the project period is “m years”, Formula 1 showing the relationship of cash flow in each period is defined as follows. The IRR is calculated by solving an equation with “r” in Equation 1 as an unknown. r (0 <r) is a discount rate.
C ₀ + C ₁ / (1 + r) + C ₂ / (1 + r) ² +... + C _m / (1 + r) ^m = 0
(Formula 1)

C _n is the cash flow of the nth period (n = 0, 1, 2,..., M). Cash flow is profit before amortization (sales-fixed costs-variable costs). C ₀ corresponds to the initial investment amount. Since the investment amount is an amount that flows out of the company as cash, _C0 is always a negative value. C _n (n = 1, 2,..., M) may be a positive value or a negative value. In general, C _n takes a negative value when n is small (as soon as it is invested), and takes a positive value when n is sufficiently large (when equipment is operating stably). There are many.

The monetary value of the 0th period (current) when the investment is made and the monetary value of the nth period (n ≠ 0) cannot be evaluated equally even if the face value is the same. In _order to evaluate the cash flow C _n in the n-th period (n ≠ 0) by the current monetary value, it is necessary to divide C _n by (1 + r) ⁿ . Then, the left side of Equation 1 means the current monetary value of the cash flow generated over all periods of the project period, and is appropriate as the project evaluation value at the present time. This value is called the net present value. IRR is a discount rate r that satisfies Equation 1, that is, the net present value is “0”. The greater the IRR, the greater the value as an investment.

  Line 156 defines that depreciation is calculated in a predetermined manner based on the investment amount and the number of years of depreciation. As is well known, a result obtained by subtracting a predetermined remaining book value from an investment amount is a depreciable amount, and a value obtained by dividing the depreciable amount by the number of years of depreciation is a depreciation expense for each period (straight line method). In addition, the amount of depreciation or the book value at the end of the previous period multiplied by a predetermined depreciation rate determined for each period can be used as the depreciation expense for each period (declining balance method). The remaining book value may be “0”. “Depreciation1” indicates that the depreciation expense for each period is calculated by the straight-line method, and “Depreciation2” indicates that the depreciation expense for each period is calculated by the declining balance method.

(Type 3: Method to define the value of the item itself)
Although not described in FIG. 4 as an example, for example, when a sales price is described in the item column 102, “=” is described in the operator column 103, and “100” is described in the value1 column 104, Indicates that the selling price is a fixed value of “100”.

(Type 4: Method to define item values with continuous probability distribution)
When an input value cannot be defined as a specific value, a probability distribution of the input value is generally used. For example, assuming that an input value has a normal distribution, it is often performed to specify a specific shape of the distribution with two parameters of an average value and a variance. Although not shown in FIG. 4, “sales price” may be described in the item column 102, “distribution 10” may be described in the operator column 103, and “100” may be described in the value1 column 104. At this time, the row indicates that the selling price is a continuous probability distribution specified by two parameters of an average value “100” and a variance “10”.

(Type 5: Method for defining item values with a discrete probability distribution)
It is also possible to further simplify the type 4 continuous probability distribution and specify the input value distribution as a precondition by discretely using two parameters, an average value and accuracy. For example, the row 134 indicates that the sales price is a discrete probability distribution specified by two parameters of an average value “10,000” and an accuracy “90%”. Although details are omitted, in this example, as the value of the sales price, “9,000” occurs with a probability of “5%”, “10,000” occurs with a probability of “90%”, and “11” , 000 "will occur with a probability of" 5% ". The same applies to the rows 135, 138, 139, 142, 145 to 147, 149, 150, 153, 154, 157 and 158.

(Type 6: Method for defining the rate of change of item values)
A row 136 in FIG. 4 indicates that the sales price value in a certain period is a value obtained by multiplying the sales price value in the immediately preceding period by the rate of change “1.05”. The above description of the selling price applies to the rows 143, 151 and 155 as well.

(Balance structure description file variables)
Generally speaking, the balance structure description file 31 is a mathematical model as an n-ary simultaneous equation that defines the quantitative correlation between n types of variables. This mathematical model can be simplified and expressed as Equation 2. The variable is synonymous with the item in the balance structure description file 31.
F (x ₁ , x ₂ , x ₃ ,..., X _n ) = 0 (Formula 2)
Here, for example, x ₁ = profit, x ₂ = sales, and x ₃ = fixed cost.

  Now, the variables of Equation 2 are classified into three categories. The variable of the first category is a variable to which a specific value significant for the user is substituted among variables to be analyzed for the user. The variable of the second category is a variable that is not subject to analysis for the user, and is a variable into which a standard value is temporarily assigned. The variable of the third category is a variable other than the variable of the first category among the variables to be analyzed for the user, and the value of the variable of the first category and the value of the variable of the second category are substituted into Equation 2. As a result, the value of the variable is calculated.

All variables are assigned to one of these three categories as appropriate. For example, suppose x ₁ , x ₂ , x _3, and x ₄ exist as variables in Equation 2. User business analysis apparatus 1 _is now out of the x _1, x 2, _{x 3} and _{x 4,} are the subject of analysis of _{x 1} and _{x 2.} Then, the user assigns a specific value in the x _1, wants to calculate the value of x ₂ in business analysis device 1. The user does not have to do with the subject of analysis of the x ₃ and x ₄ (not interested for the time being). However, if not only x ₁ but also the values of x ₃ and x ₄ are not determined, business feasibility analyzer 1 cannot calculate the value of x ₂ .

Therefore, when the user specifies that the target of analysis of x ₁ and x _2, business analysis apparatus 1 detects that the x ₃ and x ₄ is not specified, without being aware of the particular user, provisionally assigning the appropriate values to x ₃ and _{x 4.} That is _{x 1} variable of the first category, _{x 2} is the variable of the third category, _{x 3} and _{x 4} is a variable of the second category. Thus, when any value is substituted for the variable other than x _2, operations of the analyzer 1, is possible to calculate the unknown quantities x ₂ of by solving the equation of formula 2 by methods known Newton method it can.

(Assignment to variable)
In the above, an example in which one value in a variable is substituted has been described. However, there are other methods for defining other values to be substituted, including the example.
# 1: It is defined as one specific value.
# 2: Defined as a value according to a continuous probability distribution.
# 3: Defined as a value according to a discrete probability distribution.
# 4: Defined as minimum and maximum values.
# 5: defined as a plurality of discrete values arranged at equal intervals between the maximum value and the minimum value.
Note that # 1, # 2, and # 3 are also described in Patent Document 2.

(Part of the balance structure description file)
A part of the balance structure description file 31 will be described with reference to FIG. In this embodiment, for example, the row 142 for the electricity bill in FIG. 4 is an aggregate of the rows 142a to 142e in FIG. In FIG. 4, items other than 142c are not displayed. The rows 142a, 142b, and 142c are also described in Patent Document 2 and will not be described in detail here, but they correspond to the above-described # 1, # 2, and # 3, respectively.

  The row 142d indicates that the electricity charge, which is a variable, includes a minimum value “15.0” and a maximum value “20.0”. The row 142e shows a total of 11 discrete values generated as a result of dividing the variable electricity rate by dividing the range from the minimum value “15.0” to the maximum value “20.0” 10 times by an equal length. It shows that it is composed. That is, when the user designates the row 142d, the business analysis device 1 generates “15.0” and “20.0” as the value of the electricity bill. When the user designates row 142e, business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 generates eleven discrete values of “15.0, 15.5, 16.0,. To do.

  When the electricity charge that is a variable is specified in the second category, it is sufficient that the value assigned to the electricity charge is “17.5” (one fixed value) defined in the row 142a. On the other hand, when the electricity rate as a variable is specified in the first category, of course, only one value to be substituted by the user may be directly input. However, the business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 generates two values based on, for example, the row 142d, substitutes each value into the electricity bill, and calculates two values of the variable of the third category as each result. Also good. Further, the business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 generates 11 values based on, for example, the row 142e, substitutes each value into the electricity bill, and calculates 11 values of variables of the third category as the respective results. May be.

Furthermore, the user can specify a variable (for example, x ₁ ) as the variable of the first category, and separately specify a variable (for example, x ₂ ) whose value changes within a certain range. Then, business analysis apparatus 1, under the constraint that varies the extent to which there is x _2, may be the value of the third category of variables calculated plurality of ways. In this case, operations of the analyzer 1, it is desirable to produce in accordance with the value of x ₂ in the definition of # 4 or # 5.

Similarly, the user may designate two variables (for example, x ₁ and x ₂ ) whose values change within a certain range as variables of the first category. Also this time, operations of the analyzer 1, it is desirable to produce in accordance with the values of x ₁ and x ₂ in the definition of # 4 or # 5. For example, the value of _{x 1} is 11 produced as defined in # 5, also when the value of _{x 2} is 11 produced as defined in # 5, the combination of the first category of variable, 11 × 11 = 121 kinds Generated. Then, business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 can calculate 121 values of variables of the third category.

(Sensitivity analysis in this embodiment)
The diagrams used for sensitivity analysis of this embodiment are spider charts 41 (FIG. 6) and 45 (FIG. 7), and tornado charts 51 (FIG. 8) and 55 (FIG. 9).

  A spider chart (table type) 41 according to this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The spider chart 41 is, for example, a matrix of 11 rows and 11 columns as a whole. Now, it is assumed that the user designates the electricity rate as the variable of the first category among the variables of the balance structure description file 31. As described above, the balance structure description file 31 can define five values of electricity charges (lines 142a to 142e in FIG. 5). When the user designates row 142e (definition method of # 5), business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 creates a scale on the horizontal axis in FIG. The scale on the horizontal axis divides the continuous value from the minimum value “15.0” to the maximum value “20.0” into 10 equal intervals “(20.0-15.0) /10=0.5”. 11 discrete values generated by

  Next, it is assumed that the user designates the sales price as the variable of the first category among the variables of the balance structure description file 31. When the user designates the definition method # 5, the business analysis device 1 creates a scale on the vertical axis in FIG. The scale of the vertical axis divides the continuous value from the minimum value “95,000” to the maximum value “105,000” into 10 equal intervals “(105,000-95,000) / 10 = 1,000”. 11 discrete values generated by

  Next, it is assumed that the user designates IRR as a variable of the third category among the variables of the balance structure description file 31. Then, the business analysis device 1 regards all the variables in the balance structure description file 31 other than the electricity bill, the selling price, and the IRR as variables of the second category. The business analysis device 1 acquires representative values from the balance structure description file 31 for all variables regarded as the second category. Specifically, the business analysis device 1 searches the operator column 103 using “=” as a search key, and acquires the value in the value1 column 104 of the corresponding row.

  Next, the business analysis device 1 substitutes the representative values for all variables regarded as the second category in the balance structure description file 31. Further, the business analysis device 1 substitutes one of eleven discrete values for the electricity rate, which is a variable designated in the first category in the balance structure description file 31. Also, one of 11 discrete values is substituted into the sales price, which is a variable designated in the first category. Then, by solving the balance structure description file 31 as an equation, the value of IRR which is a variable designated as the third category is calculated. The business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 repeats this process for all combinations of discrete values (11 × 11 = 121) and obtains 121 IRR values as a result.

  Finally, the business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 stores 121 IRR values in the cell at the intersection of the horizontal axis and the vertical axis in FIG. 6, and displays FIG. For example, “9.62” of the cell 42 indicates that the business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 substitutes “15.00” for the electricity bill, substitutes “95,000” for the sales price, and sets other variables other than IRR. It is the value of IRR calculated by substituting the representative value.

  The spider chart (graph type) 45 of this embodiment is demonstrated along FIG. FIG. 7 displays essentially the same information as FIG. Electricity charges on the horizontal axis are variables specified in the first category. The scale on the horizontal axis is eleven discrete values. The IRR on the vertical axis is a variable designated in the third category. The scale on the vertical axis looks like a discrete value at first glance, but it is a scale at an arbitrary interval. The line graphs 46a, 46b, 46c,..., 46k on the coordinate plane respectively correspond to 11 discrete values of the sales price (the line graph 46a corresponds to the largest sales price). For example, point 47 in FIG. 7 corresponds to the case where the electricity rate is “15.5” and the selling price is “105,000” (cell 43 in FIG. 6). FIG. 7 shows a total of 121 dots. All these points have any of the eleven discrete values of the electricity bill as the horizontal coordinate values and are on any of the eleven line graphs.

The user who visually recognizes FIG. 7 can easily understand the following.
-When other conditions are constant, the IRR decreases monotonously if the electricity bill increases.
・ If other conditions are constant, the IRR increases monotonically if the selling price increases.
-Regardless of the level of sales price, the sensitivity of electricity charges to IRR (the slope of the line graph) is almost the same.
-Regardless of the level of electricity charges, the sensitivity of selling price to IRR (interval on the vertical axis of the line graph) is almost the same.

  Although not shown in FIG. 7, if the IRR takes a maximum value when the electricity rate is “17.00”, the line graph has a vertex on “17.00” on the horizontal axis. A shape like a convex quadratic curve is shown. As another example, if the IRR has a maximum value when the sales price is “100,000”, a line graph corresponding to the sales price “100,000” is displayed at the top position.

  The tornado chart (table type) 51 of this embodiment is demonstrated along FIG. In the tornado chart 51, the variable column 111 of the first category and the variable column 112 of the third category are displayed in association with each other. The variable column 111 of the first category includes an item column 111a, a minimum value column 111b, a maximum value column 111c, and a flag column 111d as small columns. The variable column 112 of the third category has an item column 112a, a minimum value column 112b, a maximum value column 112c, and a difference column 112d as small columns. In the item column 111a, variables designated by the user as the first category are displayed. This variable varies from line to line. The item column 112a stores a variable designated by the user as the third category. This variable is the same for all rows (“IRR” in FIG. 8).

Incidentally, the following can be understood by paying attention to the row 113a in FIG.
The user designates the sales volume as a variable of the first category.
The balance structure description file 31 defines that the minimum value of sales volume is “21,000” and the maximum value of sales volume is “39,000” (definition method of # 4).
The user has specified IRR as a third category variable.
The business analysis device 1 calculates the IRR by substituting the minimum value “21,000” for the sales volume and substituting the representative values for variables other than the IRR and the sales volume. As a result, the IRR became the minimum value “−0.49”.

The business analysis device 1 calculates the IRR by substituting the maximum value “39,000” for the sales volume and substituting the representative values for variables other than the IRR and the sales volume. As a result, the IRR was the maximum value “18.88”.
The difference obtained by subtracting the minimum value from the maximum value of IRR is “19.37”.
The minimum value of the sales volume corresponds to the minimum value of the IRR, and the maximum value of the sales volume corresponds to the maximum value of the IRR (“◇” in the flag column 111d indicates this large / small correspondence).

Similarly, the following can be understood by paying attention to the row 113b in FIG.
The user designates the electricity price as a variable of the first category.
The balance structure description file 31 defines that the minimum value of electricity charges is “15.0” and the maximum value of electricity charges is “20.0” (definition method of # 4).
The user has specified IRR as a third category variable.
The business analysis device 1 calculates the IRR by substituting the minimum value “15.0” into the electricity bill and substituting the respective representative values into variables other than the IRR and electricity bill. As a result, the IRR was the maximum value “11.37”.

The business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 calculates the IRR by substituting the maximum value “20.0” into the electricity bill and substituting the respective representative values into variables other than the IRR and electricity bill. As a result, the IRR became the minimum value “8.11”.
The difference obtained by subtracting the minimum value from the maximum value of IRR is “3.26”.
The minimum value of the electricity charge corresponds to the maximum value of the IRR, and the maximum value of the electricity charge corresponds to the minimum value of the IRR (“♦” in the flag column 111d indicates this large / small correspondence).

  The tornado chart (graph type) 55 of this embodiment is demonstrated along FIG. The horizontal axis of the tornado chart 55 is the IRR specified in the third category. The vertical axis of the tornado chart 55 does not correspond to any variable. However, when the variables designated in the first category are arranged in descending order of the difference (column 112d) in FIG. 8, the band graph of the variable is displayed at a position above the vertical axis as the difference is large. In other words, it looks like a tornado.

Incidentally, the following can be understood by paying attention to the band graph 56a of FIG.
・ Sales volume is the largest impact (difference) on IRR.
When the sales amount takes the minimum value “21,000”, the IRR takes the minimum value “−0.49”, and when the sales amount takes the maximum value “39,000”, the IRR takes the maximum value “18.88”. "(" ◇ "attached to the band graph indicates this).

Similarly, the following can be understood by paying attention to the band graph 56b of FIG.
・ Effect (difference) on IRR is the third largest electricity rate.
When the electricity rate takes the minimum value “15.00”, the IRR takes the maximum value “11.37”, and when the electricity rate takes the maximum value “20.00”, the IRR takes the minimum value “8.11”. ("♦" attached to the band graph indicates this).

  In FIG. 8, the business property analysis apparatus 1 has been described as an example in which # 4 is designated by the user as the definition of the variable of the first category. However, when the user designates # 5, the business analysis device 1 calculates the value of the third category variable for each discrete value of the first category variable. Then, it can be seen whether or not the variable of the third category has a maximum value and / or a minimum value between the maximum value and the minimum value. When the local maximum value and / or the local minimum value exist, the business analysis device 1 may add “◯” and / or “●” to the band graph (FIG. 9) indicating the variable of the first category, respectively. . Moreover, you may display so that IRR may become the maximum value or the minimum value by what value.

(Goal seek in this embodiment)
Now, assume that the user is thinking about the following.
The most important variable is IRR, and a specific target value (for example, “10.0%”) is required by, for example, a funder. Therefore, IRR is designated as a variable of the first category. For ease of understanding, the variable specified here is called “target variable”.
-Among the variables, electricity charges and parts prices are also important variables. However, in the short term, it is difficult for the user to change these values voluntarily, and these values are rather close to given values (constraints). Therefore, the electricity price and the part price are also designated as variables of the first category, but are considered separately from the IRR. The variable specified here is called a “constraint variable”.

・ Of the variables, how to control the selling price to achieve IRR “10.0%” is a short-term management issue. Therefore, the sales price is designated as a variable of the third category. The variable designated here is called “searched variable”.
• Other variables are not important for the time being (not subject to analysis). Therefore, other variables may be regarded as variables in the second category. This variable is called “fixed variable”.

  The goal seek chart (graph / table type) 61 of this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. Pay attention to the input field 62. IRR is specified in the variable column 63a of the row 64a for the target variable. The sales price is specified in the variable column 63a of the row 64b for the search target variable. Electricity charges are specified in the variable column 63a of the row 64c for the constraint variable 1. In the variable column 63a of the row 64d for the constraint variable 2, the part price is specified.

  “# 1” is specified in the definition method column 63b of the row 64a, and “10.0%” is specified in the variable value column 63c. This indicates that the user has input “10.0%” as the target value of IRR. Or, among the rows of the balance structure description file 31 (FIG. 4), “IRR” is stored in the item column 102, “=” is stored in the operator column 103, and “10.0%” is stored in the value1 column 104. Is specified by the user.

  The definition method column 63b and the variable value column 63c in the row 64b are blank. This indicates that the user is waiting for the output of the “sales price” value as a result of calculation by the business analysis device 1. “# 5” is displayed in the definition method column 63b of the row 64c, and “from 15.0 to 20.0 (10)” is displayed in the variable value column 63c. This means that in the line of the balance structure description file 31, “Electricity” is displayed in the item column 102, “Division 10” is displayed in the operator column 103, “15.0” is displayed in the value1 column 104, and “ This indicates that the row storing 20.0 ″ is designated by the user.

  “# 5” is displayed in the definition method column 63b of the line 64d, and “from 25.0 to 26.0 (10)” is displayed in the variable value column 63c. This means that in the line of the balance structure description file 31, “part price” is in the item column 102, “Division 10” is in the operator column 103, “25.0” is in the value1 column 104, and “25.0” is in the value2 column 105. This indicates that the row storing 26.0 ″ is designated by the user.

When the user presses the “goal seek” button 65 (FIG. 10) in such a state, the business analysis device 1 executes the following processing on the balance structure description file 31 as a mathematical model.
(1) Substitute “10.0%” for IRR.
(2) For variables other than IRR, electricity charges, and parts prices, representative values (the variable is stored in the item column 102 and “=” is stored in the operator column 103 in the line of the balance structure description file 31). The value stored in the value1 column 104 of the row is substituted.
(3) Eleven discrete values (15.0, 15.5, ..., 20.0) of the electricity bill are generated.

(4) Eleven discrete values (25.0, 25.1, ..., 26.0) of the part price are generated.
(5) Acquire one of the two types of generated variable combinations (11 × 11 = 121), substitute the value of the electricity charge included in the obtained combination for the variable “electricity charge”, and obtain The value of the part price included in the combination is substituted into the variable “part price”.
(6) The mutual relationship described in the balance structure description file 31 is solved as a simultaneous equation, and the value of the selling price is obtained.
(7) The above processes (5) and (6) are repeated for all combinations of the two types of variables generated.

  The output column 66 in FIG. 10 shows the result of the business analysis device 1 executing the processes (1) to (7). The output column 66 includes a variable column 67a and a variable value combination column 67b, and the variable value combination column 67b includes eleven columns. “10.0%” is displayed in all the columns of the row 68a. In each column of the row 68c, a discrete value of the electricity rate is displayed. Similarly, a discrete value of the part price is displayed in each column of the row 68d. The value of the sales price displayed in the row 68b is a calculation result of the business analysis device 1.

  Focusing on column 69, in order to set the IRR value to “10.0%” under the constraint that the electricity price is “15.0” and the parts price is “25.0” It is understood that the selling price must be “96,199”. Originally, the variable value combination column 67b should display a total of 121 columns. In FIG. 10, eleven columns are displayed for simplicity.

  In the graph 70, the horizontal axis represents the electricity charge, and the vertical axis represents the sales price. 11 line graphs 71 are displayed for each part price. That is, the graph 70 two-dimensionally displays the values (ternary combinations) of the lines 68b, 68c, and 68d of the output column 66.

The goal seek chart (graph / table type) 75 of this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 11 differs from FIG. 10 as follows.
The row 64d of the input field 62 is blank. That is, the user does not designate “part price” as any of the target variable, the searched variable, and the constraint variable. Accordingly, the business analysis device 1 regards “part price” as a fixed variable like many other variables, and substitutes a representative value.
As a result, the output column 66 does not have a line corresponding to the line 68d in FIG.
As a result, the number of line graphs displayed in the graph column 70 is only one. This one corresponds to a predetermined representative value of the part price.

  A goal seek chart (table type) 81 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. In FIG. 12, “all” is displayed in the variable column 63a of the row 64b of the input column 62, and the rows 64c and 64d are blank. That is, the user designates all variables other than IRR as search target variables. At this time, the business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 stores each representative value to be substituted for each searched variable (the variable is stored in the item column 102 and “=” is stored in the operator column 103 in the line of the balance structure description file 31). The value stored in the value1 column 104 of the line in question). Then, a predetermined number of values (for example, values within ± 10.0% of the representative value) approximated to satisfy the predetermined criteria are randomly generated for each obtained representative value, and for each searched variable. Create a group of values.

  Next, the business feasibility analysis apparatus 1 acquires values one by one from the created group and sets them as combinations of search target variables. Further, the business analysis device 1 calculates the IRR value by substituting the combination value into the search target variable of the balance structure description file 31, and arranges the combinations in the order close to “10.0%” (output) Column 82). Note that “10.0%” is arranged in the row 83 of the output column 82 in FIG. 12, but even if the value is not “10.0%”, it is rounded off and displayed in this way.

The overall processing procedure will be described with reference to FIG. As a premise for starting the entire processing procedure, a balance structure description file 31 (FIG. 4) is stored in the auxiliary storage device 15 in a completed state.
In step S <b> 201, the designation receiving unit 21 of the business analysis device 1 reads the balance structure description file 31. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 reads the balance structure description file 31 from the auxiliary storage device 15 and loads it into the main storage device 14.
In step S202, the designation receiving unit 21 of the business feasibility analyzer 1 receives a chart type. Specifically, the designation accepting unit 21 accepts that the user inputs one of “spider chart”, “tornado chart”, and “goal seek chart” via the input device 12.

  In step S203, the designation receiving unit 21 determines whether or not the received chart is a spider chart. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 proceeds to step S204 if the type of the chart received in step S202 is “spider chart” (step S203 “Yes”), and otherwise (step S203 “No”). ), The process proceeds to step S213.

  In step S <b> 204, the designation receiving unit 21 of the business feasibility analysis device 1 receives the designation of the cause variable and the result variable. Specifically, the designation accepting unit 21 accepts that the user designates a plurality of cause variables and designates a result variable via the input device 12. The causal variable is a variable that can take a value within a certain range among the variables (items) in the balance structure description file 31, and corresponds to a variable of the first category. The result variable is a variable whose value changes when the value of the cause variable changes among the variables (items) in the balance structure description file 31 and corresponds to a variable of the third category.

  At this time, the designation receiving unit 21 displays the balance structure description file 31 (FIGS. 4 and 5) on the output device 13, and accepts the user selecting an arbitrary line, thereby specifying the cause variable and the result variable. It may be accepted. Now, it is assumed that the user designates “electricity charge” and “sales price” as cause variables and designates “IRR” as a result variable. In other words, the user wants to examine how much the IRR changes as the value of the electricity price and the value of the selling price change (sensitivity analysis).

In step S205, the designation receiving unit 21 receives the range of the cause variable. Specifically, first, the designation receiving unit 21 highlights a line in which “electricity rate” is stored in the item column 102 among the lines of the balance structure description file 31. The rows highlighted here include, for example, the rows 142a to 142e in FIG.
Secondly, the designation receiving unit 21 receives that the user designates a certain line among the highlighted lines. Now, assume that the user designates row 142e in FIG. The user often desires to use a plurality of discrete values as the value of the electricity bill. Therefore, the designation receiving unit 21 may display the line 142e (“Division” is stored in the operator column 103) by default in a form that is distinguished from other lines.

Thirdly, the designation receiving unit 21 generates a discrete value of the variable of the row designated in “second” in step S205. In the above example, the designation receiving unit 21 generates eleven discrete values “15.0, 15.5, 16.0,.
Fourthly, the designation receiving unit 21 executes the “first” to “third” processing in step S205 for “sales price”.

In step S206, the designation receiving unit 21 specifies a fixed variable. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 regards all variables other than “electricity charges” and “sales prices” designated as cause variables and “IRR” designated as result variables as fixed variables.
In step S207, the designation receiving unit 21 acquires the value of the fixed variable. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 stores, for example, “personnel expenses” in the item column 102 and “=” in the operator column 103 in the value1 column 104 of the balance structure description file 31. The value is acquired as a representative value of “personnel expenses”. Similarly, the designation receiving unit 21 acquires representative values of other fixed variables.

In step S208, the calculation unit 22 calculates the value of the result variable. Specifically, first, the calculation unit 22 substitutes the representative value acquired in step S207 for the fixed variable of the balance structure description file 31.
Second, the calculation unit 22 acquires one from the eleven discrete values of “electricity price” generated in “third” in step S205 and acquires one from the eleven discrete values of “sales price”. By doing so, a total of 121 combinations are created.

Thirdly, the calculation unit 22 substitutes the value of the combination created in “second” of step S208 for “electricity charge” and “sales price” of the balance structure description file 31.
Fourth, the calculation unit 22 calculates “IRR” by solving the interrelationship described in the balance structure description file 31 as a mathematical model.
The calculation unit 22 repeats the “third” and “fourth” processes in step S208 for all combinations created in “second” in step S208. At the stage where the repetitive processing is completed, the calculation unit 22 holds 121 combinations of values of “(electricity rate, sales price, IRR)” as line graph data.

In step S209, the display control unit 23 displays a spider chart. Specifically, first, the display control unit 23 displays the coordinate plane of the spider chart 45 (FIG. 7) on the output device 13. The horizontal axis of the coordinate plane is “electricity charge”. “Electricity charge” is one of the cause variables specified in step S204. The vertical axis of the coordinate plane is “IRR”. “IRR” is the result variable specified in step S204.
Second, the display control unit 22 displays eleven line graphs for each “sales price” on the coordinate plane based on the data for the line graph. “Sales price” is the remaining one of the causal variables specified in step S204. Thereafter, the display control unit 22 proceeds to step S230.

  In step S213, the designation receiving unit 21 determines whether or not the received chart is a tornado chart. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 proceeds to step S214 if the type of the chart received in step S202 is “tornado chart” (step S213 “Yes”), and otherwise (step S213 “No”). ), The process proceeds to step S223.

  In step S214, the designation receiving unit 21 receives designation of a cause variable and a result variable. Specifically, the designation accepting unit 21 accepts that the user designates a cause variable and designates a result variable via the input device 12. At this time, the designation receiving unit 21 displays the balance structure description file 31 (FIGS. 4 and 5) on the output device 13, and accepts the user selecting an arbitrary line, thereby specifying the cause variable and the result variable. It may be accepted. Now, assuming that “sales amount” is designated as a cause variable and “IRR” is designated as a result variable, the user continues the following description. That is, the user wants to examine how much the IRR changes as the sales volume value changes (sensitivity analysis). The cause variable designated at this time is called “analysis target cause variable”. Although details will be described later, the designation receiving unit 21 performs sensitivity analysis after variously changing the “analysis target cause variable”.

  In step S215, the designation receiving unit 21 receives the range of the cause variable. Specifically, first, the designation receiving unit 21 highlights a line in which “sales amount” is stored in the item column 102 among the lines of the balance structure description file 31. Here, the highlighted rows include, for example, rows for “sales amount” corresponding to the rows 142a to 142e in FIG.

Secondly, the designation receiving unit 21 receives that the user designates a certain line among the highlighted lines. Now, assume that the user designates a line for “sales volume” corresponding to the line 142e in FIG. The user often desires to use a plurality of discrete values as sales volume values. Therefore, the designation receiving unit 21 may display the “sales amount” row (“Division” is stored in the operator column 103) corresponding to the row 142e by default in a form distinguished from other rows.
Thirdly, the designation receiving unit 21 generates a discrete value of the variable of the row designated in “second” in step S215. In the above example, the designation receiving unit 21 generates, for example, 11 discrete values “21,000,..., 39,000” of sales volume.

In step S216, the designation receiving unit 21 identifies a fixed variable. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 regards all variables other than “sales amount” designated as the cause variable and “IRR” designated as the result variable as fixed variables.
In step S217, the designation receiving unit 21 acquires the value of the fixed variable. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 stores, for example, “personnel expenses” in the item column 102 and “=” in the operator column 103 in the value1 column 104 of the balance structure description file 31. The value is acquired as a representative value of “personnel expenses”. Similarly, the designation receiving unit 21 acquires representative values of other fixed variables.

In step S218, the calculation unit 22 calculates the value of the result variable. Specifically, first, the calculation unit 22 substitutes the representative value acquired in step S217 for the fixed variable of the balance structure description file 31.
Secondly, the calculation unit 22 acquires one from 11 discrete values of “sales amount” generated in “third” in step S215.

Third, the calculation unit 22 substitutes the value acquired in “second” in step S218 for “sales amount” in the balance structure description file 31.
Fourth, the calculation unit 22 calculates “IRR” by solving the mutual relationship described in the balance structure description file 31 as a mathematical model.
The calculation unit 22 repeats the “second” to “fourth” processes in step S218 for the eleven discrete values of “sales amount” generated in “third” in step S215 (inner loop). Then, at the stage where the iterative process of the inner loop is completed, the calculation unit 22 holds 11 IRR values. The calculation unit 22 holds the result of subtracting the minimum value from the maximum value as a difference.

The designation receiving unit 21 and the calculation unit 22 change the “analysis target cause variable” to a variable other than “sales amount” and “IRR”, and then perform steps until there is no unprocessed “analysis target cause variable”. The processes of S215 to S218 are repeated (outer loop). Then, at the stage where the outer loop iteration process is completed, the calculation unit 22 holds the combinations of the values of “(cause variable, difference)” by the number of analysis target cause variables. The combination held here is called “pre-order difference information”. As an example of the pre-order difference information, for example, the following can be considered.
(Cause variable, difference) = (Sales price, 3.53), (Power consumption, 1.14), (Depreciable years, 0.08), (Sales volume, 19.37), (Parts price, 0. 42), (Electricity charges, 3.26)

In step S219, the display control unit 23 displays a tornado chart. Specifically, first, the display control unit 23 rearranges the held pre-order difference information in descending order of difference to obtain “post-order difference information”. Of course, the display control unit 23 may rearrange the stored pre-order difference information in ascending order of difference. Examples of post-ordering difference information include the following.
[Cause variable, difference] = [Sales volume, 19.37], [Sales price, 3.53], [Electricity charge, 3.26], [Power consumption, 1.14], [Part price, 0. 42], [Amortization period, 0.08]

Second, the display control unit 23 displays the tornado chart 55 (FIG. 9) on the output device 13. The horizontal axis of the coordinate plane is “IRR”. “IRR” is the result variable specified in step S214.
Thirdly, the display control unit 23 displays a band graph indicating the cause variable from the top of the tornado chart 55 in descending order of the difference in post-ordering difference information. Of course, you may display from the top in order with small difference. The coordinate value on the horizontal axis at the left end of each band graph is the minimum value of IRR when the causal variable changes while taking various discrete values. The coordinate value on the horizontal axis at the right end of each band graph is the maximum value of IRR when the causal variable changes while taking various discrete values. Thereafter, the display control unit 23 proceeds to step S230.

  In step S223, the designation receiving unit 21 receives designation of target variables, search target variables, and constraint variables. Specifically, the designation accepting unit 21 accepts that the user designates a target variable, a search target variable, and a constraint variable via the input device 12. The target variable is a variable in which a target value is designated among variables (items) in the balance structure description file 31 and corresponds to a variable of the first category. The search target variable is a variable in which a value for the target variable to take the target value among the variables (items) in the balance structure description file 31 is calculated, and corresponds to a third category variable. The constraint variable is a variable that can take a value within a certain range, and corresponds to a variable of the first category.

  At this time, the designation receiving unit 21 displays the balance structure description file 31 (FIGS. 4 and 5) on the output device 13, and accepts that the user selects an arbitrary line, whereby the target variable, the searched variable, and the restriction are received. You may accept specification of variables. Now, it is assumed that the user designates “IRR” as the target variable, designates “sales price” as the search target variable, and designates “electricity charge” and “part price” as the constraint variables. In other words, if there is a constraint that the electricity price value and the part price value change within a certain range, the user must select what value the searched variable will take in order for the target variable to take a given target value. I want to find out if I have to.

  In step S224, the designation receiving unit 21 receives the target value. Specifically, the designation accepting unit 21 accepts that the user designates a target value (for example, “10.0%”) of the IRR via the input device 12.

In step S225, the designation receiving unit 21 receives the range of the constraint variable. Specifically, first, the designation receiving unit 21 highlights a line in which “electricity rate” is stored in the item column 102 among the lines of the balance structure description file 31. The rows highlighted here include, for example, the rows 142a to 142e in FIG.
Secondly, the designation receiving unit 21 receives that the user designates a certain line among the highlighted lines. Now, assume that the user designates row 142e in FIG. The user often desires to use a plurality of discrete values as the value of the electricity bill. Therefore, the designation receiving unit 21 may display the line 142e (“Division” is stored in the operator column 103) by default in a form that is distinguished from other lines.

Thirdly, the designation receiving unit 21 generates a discrete value of the variable in the row designated in “second” in step S225. In the above example, the designation receiving unit 21 generates eleven discrete values “15.0, 15.5, 16.0,.
Fourthly, the designation receiving unit 21 executes “first” to “third” processing in step S225 for “part price”.

  In step S226, the designation receiving unit 21 specifies a fixed variable. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 is other than “IRR” designated as a target variable, “electricity charge” and “part price” designated as constraint variables, and “sales price” designated as a searched variable. Consider all variables as fixed variables.

  In step S227, the designation receiving unit 21 acquires the value of the fixed variable. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 stores, for example, “personnel expenses” in the item column 102 and “=” in the operator column 103 in the value1 column 104 of the balance structure description file 31. The value is acquired as a representative value of “personnel expenses”. Similarly, the designation receiving unit 21 acquires representative values of other fixed variables.

In step S228, the calculation unit 22 calculates the value of the search target variable. Specifically, first, the calculation unit 22 substitutes the representative value acquired in step S227 for the fixed variable of the balance structure description file 31.
Second, the calculation unit 22 acquires one from the eleven discrete values of “electricity price” generated in “third” in step S225 and acquires one from the eleven discrete values of “part price”. By doing so, a total of 121 combinations are created.

Third, the calculation unit 22 substitutes the value of the combination created in “second” in step S228 for “electricity charge” and “part price” in the balance structure description file 31.
Fourth, the calculation unit 22 calculates “IRR” by solving the interrelationship described in the balance structure description file 31 as a mathematical model.
The calculation unit 22 repeats the “third” and “fourth” processes in step S228 for all combinations created in “second” in step S228. At the stage where the repetitive processing is completed, the calculation unit 22 holds 121 combinations of values of “(electricity charge, parts price, sales price)” as line graph data.

In step S229, the display control unit 23 displays a goal seek chart. Specifically, the display control unit 23 displays the goal seek chart 61 (FIG. 10) on the output device 13. The details of the goal seek chart 61 are as described above.
The display control unit 23 displays the goal seek chart 75 (FIG. 11) when only one variable is designated as the constraint variable, and all variables other than the target variable are designated as search target variables. In this case, the goal seek chart 81 (FIG. 12) is displayed.
Thereafter, the display control unit 23 proceeds to step S230.

  In step S230, the designation receiving unit 21 determines whether to end the process. Specifically, the designation receiving unit 21 returns to step S202 when receiving a user input of an instruction to continue processing via the input device 12 (step S230 “No”). When the user receives an instruction to end the processing (step S230 “Yes”), the entire processing procedure is ended.

(Effect of embodiment)
The business analysis device of this embodiment has the following effects.
(1) The business analysis device can display a spider chart, a tornado chart, and a goal seek chart without making the user troublesome by using the balance structure description file.
(2) The business analysis apparatus can store the variable range and the representative value in the balance structure description file. Thus, the user does not have to worry about selecting a value of a variable that is not of interest.
(3) The business analysis device can generate discrete values of variables. Therefore, the user can easily visually recognize the minimum value or the maximum value of the variable.

In addition, this invention is not limited to an above-described Example, Various modifications are included. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described. Further, a part of the configuration of one embodiment can be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment, and the configuration of another embodiment can be added to the configuration of one embodiment. Further, it is possible to add, delete, and replace other configurations for a part of the configuration of each embodiment.
Each of the above-described configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, and the like may be realized by hardware by designing a part or all of them with, for example, an integrated circuit. Each of the above-described configurations, functions, and the like may be realized by software by interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function by the processor. Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be stored in a recording device such as a memory, a hard disk, or an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.
In addition, the control lines and information lines are those that are considered necessary for the explanation, and not all the control lines and information lines on the product are necessarily shown. In practice, it may be considered that almost all the components are connected to each other.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Business analysis device 11 Central control device 12 Input device 13 Output device 14 Main storage device 15 Auxiliary storage device 21 Specification reception part 22 Calculation part 23 Display control part 31 Balance structure description file

Claims (7)

A storage unit storing a balance structure description file that describes the quantitative interrelationship of a plurality of variables related to the business, and a control unit;
The plurality of variables in the balance structure description file of the storage unit are:
Multiple cause variables that can take values in a range,
A result variable whose value changes as the value of the causal variable changes;
A fixed variable other than the cause variable and the result variable,
The controller is
A designation receiving unit that accepts designation of the result variable and the plurality of cause variables, and regards variables other than the designated result variable and the designated cause variable as the fixed variables;
The specified result is obtained by substituting a value within the certain range for the specified cause variable and substituting a representative value for the fixed variable, and solving the interrelation described in the balance structure description file. An arithmetic unit for calculating the value of the variable;
A graph showing the calculated value of the designated result variable on a plane having the designated result variable as a first axis and one of the designated cause variables as a second axis; A display control unit for displaying each remaining cause variable among the specified cause variables;
A business feasibility analysis apparatus comprising: A storage unit storing a balance structure description file that describes the quantitative interrelationship of a plurality of variables related to the business, and a control unit;
The plurality of variables in the balance structure description file of the storage unit are:
Multiple cause variables that can take values in a range,
A result variable whose value changes as the value of the causal variable changes;
A fixed variable other than the cause variable and the result variable,
The controller is
A designation receiving unit that accepts designation of the result variable and the plurality of cause variables, and regards variables other than the designated result variable and the designated cause variable as the fixed variables;
Substituting a value within the certain range for the designated cause variable, and substituting a representative value for the fixed variable, and solving the interrelation described in the balance structure description file An arithmetic unit for calculating the value of the designated result variable for each of the cause variables;
The order of the designated cause variable is determined based on the magnitude relationship of the range that the calculated value of the designated result variable can take, and the order of the designated result variable is determined according to the determined order. A display control unit that displays a figure indicating a range that the calculated value can take for each of the specified cause variables;
A business feasibility analysis apparatus comprising: The balance structure description file is
Storing a certain range when each of a plurality of variables is designated as the cause variable;
Storing the representative value when each of a plurality of variables is regarded as the fixed variable;
The designated receiving unit
Receiving the certain range and the representative value stored in the balance structure description file from the balance structure description file;
The business feasibility analysis device according to claim 1, wherein: The certain range is
It is defined by minimum value, maximum value and number of divisions.
The designated receiving unit
By dividing a value from the minimum value to the maximum value of the designated cause variable by the division number, a plurality of discrete values of the designated cause variable is generated,
The computing unit is
Substituting the generated discrete value into the designated cause variable;
The business property analysis apparatus according to claim 3, wherein: A storage unit storing a balance structure description file that describes the quantitative interrelationship of a plurality of variables related to the business, and a control unit;
The plurality of variables in the balance structure description file of the storage unit are:
A target variable in which the target value is specified,
A searched variable from which a value for the target variable to take the target value is calculated;
A constraint variable that can take a value in a certain range;
The target variable, the searched variable, and a fixed variable other than the constraint variable,
The controller is
The target variable, the search target variable, and the constraint variable are accepted to be specified, and the specified target variable, the specified search target variable, and a variable other than the specified constraint variable are defined as the fixed variable. The designated reception department
The target value is substituted for the designated target variable, a value within the certain range is substituted for the designated constraint variable, a representative value is substituted for the fixed variable, and is described in the balance structure description file. An arithmetic unit that calculates a value of the designated search target variable by solving the mutual relationship;
A business feasibility analysis apparatus comprising: The balance structure description file is
Storing a certain range when each of a plurality of variables is designated as the constraint variable;
Storing the representative value when each of a plurality of variables is regarded as the fixed variable;
The designated receiving unit
Receiving the certain range and the representative value stored in the balance structure description file from the balance structure description file;
The business property analysis apparatus according to claim 5, wherein: The certain range is
It is defined by minimum value, maximum value and number of divisions.
The designated receiving unit
By dividing a value from the minimum value to the maximum value of the designated constraint variable by the division number, a plurality of discrete values of the designated constraint variable are generated,
The computing unit is
Substituting the generated discrete value into the designated constraint variable;
The business analysis device according to claim 6.

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