JP2001312628A - System, method, and device for transaction condition prediction - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a system which enables a component designer to predict a component price. SOLUTION: A database 3A in which a component number and the specifications of a component contributing to transaction conditions of the component are extracted and the extracted information is recorded by the kinds of components is provided; and the relation between the specifications contributing to the transaction conditions of the component and the transaction conditions of the component is analyzed by specifying the kind of the component, data on the specifications and purchase conditions of respective components in a list and the analysis results are displayed while made to correspond to each other, and transaction conditions of the component corresponding to the specifications of the component are predicted from the analysis result.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system, a prediction method, and a prediction device for predicting transaction conditions of an article, and more particularly to a cost prediction system for predicting the cost (unit price) of a component from the specification of the component.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, CAD for creating and managing mechanical drawings
The system and the production management system that manages the ordering and delivery of parts were configured separately and independently, and both created and recorded data without relation.

[0003]

Since the conventional CAD system and the production management system create and record data independently of each other, designers are informed of transaction conditions such as parts prices and delivery dates. However, when designing a new part or changing the design, it is difficult to understand the cost and delivery time of the existing part, and there is a problem in that a part that is unintentionally high in cost and has a long delivery time is designed.

[0004] In addition, since the design is performed independently for each part, a high price may be set for the specification,
The existence of such parts with abnormal costs (high prices) could not be determined.

Further, every time the specifications and transaction conditions of existing parts are changed, cost analysis must be performed, and it is not easy to update parameters (such as regression coefficients) used in this analysis.

[0006]

According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided a first database in which a part number and a specification of a part are recorded, a second database in which the part number and a transaction condition of the part are recorded. A transaction condition prediction system for predicting a transaction condition of a part based on the data of the first database and the data of the second database, wherein the part number and the part transaction are predicted from the first database. By extracting information on the specifications of components that contribute to the condition, providing a third database that records the extracted information for each type of component, and specifying the type of component,
Analyzing the relationship between the specifications that contribute to the transaction conditions of the parts and the transaction conditions of the parts, the analysis result is displayed on a screen together with a list of the part specifications, and the specifications of each part in the list and the analysis result And the data of the purchase condition are displayed in association with each other, and the transaction condition of the component corresponding to the specification of the component is predicted from the analysis result.

In a second aspect based on the first aspect, the parts for predicting the transaction conditions include newly designed parts,
It includes a part whose price is revised and a part whose specification is changed.

[0008] In a third aspect based on the first or second aspect, the analysis result of the relationship between the specification of the part and the transaction condition of the part is displayed in association with the mechanical drawing of the part. It is characterized by.

In a fourth aspect based on the first to third aspects, the specification that contributes to the transaction conditions of the part is at least one of a dimension, an area, a volume, and a heat treatment condition of the part. And

A fifth invention is characterized in that, in the first to fourth inventions, a transaction condition of the part is a price or a delivery date of the part.

According to a sixth aspect, in the first to fifth aspects, a correlation between the transaction conditions of the part and the specification of the part is regression-calculated to analyze the relationship between the two. .

In a seventh aspect based on the first to sixth aspects, the specification of the part is extracted based on a calculation result of a correlation between a plurality of specifications of the part and a transaction condition of the part.
It is characterized in that specifications of parts having a large correlation are extracted.

According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, the part number and information on the specification of the part which contributes to the transaction conditions of the part are extracted from the data of the first database in which the part number and the specification of the part are recorded. In the transaction condition prediction method for predicting the transaction conditions of the component by using a third database in which the extracted information is recorded for each type of the component, the type of the component is designated to contribute to the transaction condition of the component. A step of analyzing the relationship between the specification and the transaction condition of the part, a step of displaying the analysis result on a screen together with the list of the part specification, and a step of displaying the specification and purchase condition of each part in the list and the analysis result. A step of displaying data in association with each other; and a step of predicting a transaction condition of the part corresponding to the specification of the part from the analysis result.

In the eighth invention, the analysis result of the relationship between the specification of the part and the transaction condition of the part can be displayed in association with the mechanical drawing of the part. Further, in the eighth invention, the specifications that contribute to the transaction conditions of the parts are:
The dimensions, area, volume, or heat treatment conditions of the component may be any one or more, and the transaction condition of the component may be the price or delivery date of the component. Further, in the eighth invention, it is possible to configure so as to include a step of regression calculating a correlation between the transaction condition of the part and the specification of the part to analyze a relationship between the two. The method may further include a step of extracting a specification of a component having a large correlation based on a calculation result of a correlation between a plurality of specifications of the component and a transaction condition of the component.

According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, the part number and information on the specification of the part which contributes to the transaction condition of the part are extracted from the data of the first database in which the part number and the specification of the part are recorded. In the transaction condition predicting apparatus for predicting the transaction conditions of the parts based on the third database in which the extracted information is recorded for each type of the parts, the type of the parts is designated to contribute to the transaction conditions of the parts. Means for analyzing the relationship between the specifications and the transaction conditions of the parts, means for displaying the analysis results on a screen together with the list of the part specifications, and specification and purchase conditions for each part in the list and the analysis results. A means for displaying the data in association with each other; and a means for estimating a transaction condition of the part corresponding to the specification of the part from the analysis result.

According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, there may be provided means for displaying an analysis result of the relationship between the specification of the part and the transaction condition of the part in association with the mechanical drawing of the part. Further, in the ninth invention, the specification that contributes to the transaction condition of the component is any one or more of the dimension, area, volume, and heat treatment condition of the component. In the ninth invention, the transaction condition of the component is It may be the price or delivery date of the part. Furthermore, in the ninth invention, the correlation between the transaction condition of the part and the specification of the part can be regression-calculated to include means for analyzing the relationship between the two, and the specification of the part can be extracted. Based on a calculation result of the correlation between the plurality of specifications of the part and the transaction conditions of the part,
It can be configured to have a means for extracting the specification of a component having a large correlation.

Further, in the eighth or ninth invention, the part for predicting the transaction condition includes a newly designed part,
This includes parts whose prices are revised and parts whose specifications are changed.

[0018]

According to the first, second, fourth to sixth, eighth, and ninth aspects of the present invention, the specifications of parts and the transaction conditions of parts are associated with each other by the third database. By analyzing the relationship between the components, it is possible to predict the transaction conditions of the components corresponding to the specifications of the components, and it is possible to prevent the unintentional design of a component having a high cost and a long delivery time.

According to the third aspect of the present invention, the specifications and transaction conditions of the parts are displayed in association with the mechanical drawings of the parts. Therefore, which part of the design content shown in the mechanical drawings contributes to the transaction conditions of the parts is displayed. Can be confirmed immediately.

According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, a specification of a component having a large correlation is extracted based on a calculation result of a correlation between a plurality of specifications of a component and a transaction condition. It is possible to predict the transaction conditions of parts.

[0021]

Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the entire cost estimation system according to the present embodiment. The CAD system server 1, the production management system server 2, the data management device 3, and the user terminal 4 are communicably connected to each other by a network 5 such as the Internet.

The CAD system server 1, the production management system server 2, and the data management device 3 are all CP
It is configured by a computer having a U, a memory, an input / output interface, and the like. CAD system server 1
A database (DB) 1A that records CAD data, which is a mechanical drawing of parts, is stored in the production management system server 2.
Has a database (DB) that records production management data
2A (the structure is described in detail in FIG. 3), and the data management device 3 is provided with a database (DB) 3A (the structure is described in detail in FIG. 4) in which data grouped by the same kind of parts is recorded.

The user terminal 4 is a personal computer, a work station, or the like connected to the Internet 5. The user terminal 4 allows a technician to predict the cost of parts at the time of designing parts and to reduce the price variation for each specification. As a result, the abnormal cost can be improved. This user terminal 4
May be configured separately from a terminal of an existing system such as a production management system or a CAD system, or may be configured to use both a terminal of a production management system and a terminal of a CAD system.

Next, the operation of the cost estimation system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The data management device 3 extracts a product number from the CAD system database 1A, classifies the product number according to a predetermined group name, and records it in the data management device database 3A. Also,
The data management device 3 includes a CAD system database 1
A specification (dimensional data) that contributes to the unit price is extracted from A and recorded in the data management device database 3A.

The user terminal 4 creates a cost leveling table used for cost estimation, and sets a target unit price, estimates by a regression line, and the like. For this purpose, the user terminal 4 reads out the data relating to the grouping of the parts from the data management device database 3A, and stores the information on the product number and the transaction conditions (unit price, production amount, purchaser, etc.) in the production management system database 2A.
From the CAD system database 1A and read the image data of the drawing from the Internet 5
Receive the transmission via and display it on the screen.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the user terminal 4. The CPU (arithmetic processing unit) 6 executes a pre-recorded program, processes input / output data, and controls other units. The user terminal 4 is connected to the communication network 5 via the communication input / output unit 7, and inputs and outputs data from the communication network 5. The storage unit 8 includes a hard disk and a memory (RAM, ROM).

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the configuration of the database 2A recorded in the production management system server 2. The production management system server 2 stores data necessary for production management operations such as ordering and delivery of parts. Specifically, data such as a unit price, a production amount, a purchaser, and a delivery date are recorded for the product number provided for each component. These data are used for cost estimation and displayed on the user terminal 4.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the structure of the database 3A recorded in the data management device 3. The data management device 3 stores the data of the production management system server 2 and the CA
The data of the server 1 for the D system is combined, and data in which the parts are grouped and associated with the product numbers are recorded.
More specifically, the dimensions (height, outer diameter, etc.) of the components or the heat treatment conditions (heat treatment time, heat treatment temperature, etc.) are recorded for each product number as data contributing to the group name indicating the type of the component and the price. .

The database 3A includes a CAD system database 1A and a production management system database 2A.
Of the data of A, only data used for cost prediction analysis is recorded, and other data is read out from the CAD system database 1A or the production management system database 2A when necessary. In addition, all the necessary data from both databases 1A and 2A may be recorded in the data management device database 3A. Alternatively, only the group name and the product number may be recorded in the data management device database 3A, and data may be read from both databases 1A and 2A as necessary.

FIG. 5 shows a database 3A of the data management device.
6 is a flowchart showing an operation at the time of creation of. The data management device 3 reads from the CAD system database 1A
The part number and the dimension data of the part are read out (10
1). The data management device 3 groups the components by type and assigns a group name (for example, piston, rod, shaft, etc.) (102). This group name is automatically given based on the part name from the previously input group name. Further, the operator may make an input by judging from a part name, a part shape and the like.

Next, the data management device 3 associates the group name with the component data (part number and size) read from the CAD system database 1A (1).
03), and record in the storage unit 8 of the data management device 3 for each product number (104). Here, as described above, all necessary data from the CAD system database 1A and the production management system database 2A are transferred to the data management device 3A.
The storage unit 8 of the data management device 3 may be configured to record only the group name and the product number.

In this embodiment, parts are classified into groups by the data management device database 3A, and C
Since the database 1A of the AD system and the database 2A of the production management system are associated with each other, both data can be used for price prediction.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the operation at the time of cost analysis. When the designer wants to analyze the cost of a part to be newly designed, the group name of the part is designated on the user terminal 4 (111). The designated group name is transmitted to the data management device 3, and the data management device 3
(112), and the user terminal 4 extracts the parts (product number) belonging to this group from the CAD system database 1A and the production management system database 2A. The part number specification and purchase condition data are read (113), and list data is created (114).

In the user terminal 4, from the data read out corresponding to the product number, a parameter predetermined as having a high correlation with the price for each group or a parameter predetermined for the group unit price ( For example,
(Part dimensions) is automatically selected or selected by the designer (11).
5) Calculate the correlation between the parameter and the price (116). The user terminal 4 displays the result of the regression calculation using this parameter on the screen as price prediction (11).
7).

The calculation of the regression equation and the correlation coefficient is based on the regression equation

[0037]

(Equation 1) The regression coefficient (B) and the constant term (A) are

[0038]

(Equation 2)

[0039]

(Equation 3) It is represented by The correlation coefficient (γ) is

[0040]

(Equation 4) Can be calculated by

Since data is read from the CAD system database 1A and the production management system database 2A based on the database 3A of the data management device 3, the parts prices can be predicted by integrating both databases 1A and 2A.

Here, the data serving as the parameter is configured so that the user terminal 4 automatically selects the data according to the component group. It can be configured to be specified by the designer. Further, the parameters may be not only the recorded data itself but also data obtained by calculating two or more data (for example, area = length × width, volume = height × diameter × diameter).

The user terminal 4 may be configured to perform a regression calculation using a plurality of parameters and display the one having a strong correlation coefficient, that is, the one having a correlation between the price and the parameter.

Since the correlation with the transaction conditions is calculated with a plurality of parameters, and a parameter having a strong correlation is selected,
Parts prices can be accurately predicted.

Further, a regression calculation can be performed using two parameters, and the correlation between the two parameters and the price can be displayed in a three-dimensional graph. Further, it is possible to accurately predict the part price. it can.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the configuration of the cost prediction screen. The screen is divided into upper and lower parts, and data such as the part numbers and unit prices of the parts belonging to this group are displayed on the upper part of the screen. On the lower side of the screen, the result of the regression calculation as a correlation between the price and the parameter is displayed in a scatter diagram with the vertical axis as the price and the horizontal axis as the analysis parameter. Further, a regression line is displayed on the scatter diagram. A drawing display area is provided on the lower right side of the screen, and drawing data is read from the CAD system database 1A by the operation of the designer.
It is configured so that a drawing image can be displayed at the lower right of the screen.

Although the scatter diagram shown in FIG. 7 is a two-dimensional graph using one parameter, it can be expressed as a three-dimensional graph using two parameters.

The graph may be displayed as a graph (bar graph, pie graph, or the like) in another expression format instead of a scatter diagram.

The data in the list on the screen and the points on the scatter chart at the bottom of the screen correspond one-to-one, and the cursor is moved to an arbitrary point on the scatter chart at the bottom of the screen and picked (clicked). , The corresponding list row attributes (font color, background color,
(Font) and display the data so that the selected point can be understood. Furthermore, the row of the list at the top of the screen and the drawing image also correspond one-to-one, and when the row of the list is selected, the drawing image is displayed in the drawing display area at the lower right of the screen.
When the specifications (parameters) of a part to be newly designed are input in an input field (not shown) provided separately in the screen, the estimated price of the new part is calculated using the calculated correlation. Can be.

Further, by inputting the price reduction rate with respect to the correlation result between the price and the parameter displayed on the lower side of the screen, a new regression line calculated based on the reduction rate is displayed.

Since the analysis result of the parameter and the part price is displayed in association with the part specification, the transaction condition, and the mechanism drawing, any part of the design content shown in the mechanism drawing contributes to the part transaction condition. Can be checked immediately.

In the above description, the case where the correlation with the price is analyzed based on the dimensions of the part has been described. However, if the purchase condition can be quantified such as the delivery date instead of the price, other purchase conditions can be predicted. It is possible. In addition, as long as the specification can be quantified, such as heat treatment conditions (heat treatment time and heat treatment temperature), instead of the dimensions (area and volume) of the component, the prediction can be made based on other specifications.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the overall configuration of the present embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a data management device.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a data configuration of a production management system.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a data configuration of a data management device.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart when data is created by the data management device.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart at the time of cost analysis.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a configuration of a cost prediction screen.

[Explanation of symbols]

 Reference Signs List 1 CAD system server 1A CAD system database 2 Production management system server 2A Production management system database 3 Data management device 3A Data management device database 4 User terminal 5 Network (Internet) 6 CPU 7 Communication input / output unit 8 Storage Unit 9 Display unit 10 Input unit

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on the front page (51) Int.Cl. ⁷ Identification symbol FI Theme coat ゛ (Reference) G06F 19/00 100 G06F 19/00 100 // G05B 19/418 G05B 19/418 Z F term (Reference) 5B046 CA06 DA01 KA06 KA10 5B049 BB07 EE00 EE05 GG02 GG04 5B075 ND20 UU22 9A001 BB02 BB03 DD13 GZ05 JJ25 JJ47 JJ50 KK54 LL09

Claims (9)

[Claims] A first database that records a part number and a specification of a part; and a second database that records the part number and a transaction condition of the part. In a transaction condition prediction system for predicting a transaction condition of a part based on data and data of the second database, the part number and information on a specification of a part contributing to the transaction condition of the part are obtained from the first database. A third database that extracts and records the extracted information for each type of component, and provides a specification that contributes to the transaction conditions of the component by designating the type of the component; and a transaction condition of the component. The analysis result is displayed together with the list of the part specifications, and the data of the specification and purchase condition of each part in the list and the analysis result are associated with each other. A transaction condition prediction system for predicting, based on the analysis result, a transaction condition of a part corresponding to the specification of the part. 2. The transaction condition prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the components for predicting the transaction conditions include a newly designed component, a component whose price is revised, and a component whose specifications are changed. . 3. The transaction condition according to claim 1, wherein an analysis result of a relationship between the specification of the component and a transaction condition of the component is displayed in association with a mechanical drawing of the component. Forecasting system. 4. The specifications that contribute to the transaction conditions of the parts are as follows:
The transaction condition prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the transaction condition is one or more of a dimension, an area, a volume, and a heat treatment condition of the component. 5. The transaction condition prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the transaction condition of the component is a price or a delivery date of the component. 6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the correlation between the transaction conditions of the part and the specification of the part is regression-calculated to analyze the relationship between the two. Trading condition forecasting system. 7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the specification of the part is extracted based on a calculation result of a correlation between a plurality of specifications of the part and a transaction condition of the part. The transaction condition prediction system according to claim 1. 8. The part number and part specification information that contributes to a part transaction condition are extracted from data of a first database in which a part number and part specification are recorded. In a transaction condition prediction method for predicting the transaction conditions of the component by using a third database in which the components are recorded for each component type, a specification that contributes to the transaction conditions of the component by designating the type of the component; Analyzing the association of the parts with the transaction conditions of the parts, and displaying the analysis results together with the list of the part specifications, and the data of the specifications and purchase conditions of each part in the list and the analysis results in association with each other. Estimating the transaction condition of the part corresponding to the specification of the part from the analysis result. 9. Extraction of the part number and information of the specification of the part contributing to the transaction condition of the part from data of the first database in which the part number and the specification of the part are recorded. In a transaction condition prediction device that predicts the transaction conditions of parts by using a third database recorded for each type of parts, a specification that contributes to the transaction conditions of the parts by specifying the type of the parts, Means for analyzing the relationship between the transaction conditions of the parts, and means for displaying the analysis result together with the list of the part specifications, and the data of the specifications and purchase conditions of each part in the list and the analysis result in association with each other. Means for predicting, based on the analysis result, transaction conditions of parts corresponding to the specification of the parts.