HU192375B - Method for forecasting or detecting earthquakes or artificial earthquakes, as well as for preventive protecting establishments - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a method for predicting or detecting earthquakes (mine collapses) caused by natural and / or artificial means, such as mine cultivation and the construction of reservoirs sealed with high impoundments, and high-value and / or extremely hazardous installations, e.g. preventive protection of power plants, mines, chemical plants.

Reliable earthquake forecasting is a growing demand these days, and its events, until recent disasters, have highlighted its importance.

So far, the earthquake prediction was primarily focused on the perception of the seismological effect itself, so by the nature of the measurements it was able to provide a prediction (prediction) in the established phase of the vibration-shake effect, and which geographic directions additional layer movement.

Recently, in addition to surface measurements, seismic and seismological measurements were performed under and near the surface, and some additional parameters of the quakes, such as changes in pressure and thermal values, were also measured.

Surface measurements have also included tilt meters and laser strain gauges to detect displacements.

However, based on the unfortunate experience of recent years, the use of the listed procedures and measuring instruments has yielded little success. Until now, there has been a lack of a complex measurement process for measuring, processing and evaluating a suitable range of physical, geophysical, geochemical, geodesic and biological parameters, their absolute and relative values, and time series of changes, the natural and / or artificial earthquakes, and, on the basis of such indications, the necessary measures could have been taken with sufficient certainty.

As a general and technical solution, we consider the network of seismic observation observatories, the measurement data of these observatories being, as stated above, almost exclusively derived from seismological measurements and surface surveying.

Our findings were based on the following publications:

- P. Rikitake: Earthaquake Prediction, 357p.

Elsevier, 1976;

- Earthquake prediction

Proceedings of the Intemational Symposium on Earthquake Prediction - Terra Scientific Publishing Company, 995 p.

(TERRAPUB), Tokyo, UNESCO, Paris, 1984.

Previous publications also report experimental measurement methods that address earthquake prediction in many ways.

The present invention is based on the discovery that the object of the invention can be achieved if not only the quake effect but also the elastic layer deformation preceding it is evaluated, where some locally and temporally distinct earthquake activity can be traced to the crustal and mantle processes. back,

The essence of the method according to the invention, based on this recognition, is that, in addition to the seismological measurements carried out on or below the surface, simultaneous and continuous sampling is carried out in the investigated area below, above and below the surface. frequency - further observations and measurements. This involves detecting and measuring a combination of physical, geophysical, geochemical, geodesic, and microbiological parameters. of which at least one parameter is sensed below ground level. Changes in these parameters are also measured in space and time, and at the same time, the measured values are telegraphed, recorded and stored, and processed and evaluated by computer.

From the measurement data obtained during the processing, the time function of each parameter value and their first and second differential coefficients are determined.

Further, the relationship of these values to the values of one parameter and one or more other parameters is determined.

Determining the time functions of the individual parameter values, parameter groups, and their increments and their relative intensities, taking into account the specific geological and rock physical features of the examined land. performing an extrapolation function estimation and indicating an earthquake hazard whenever there are at least two. the critical value for the independent parameter, previously determined empirically, is obtained as a result of the extra polation.

The method of the present invention comprises the measurement results provided by known remote sensing measuring systems, such as stereo aerial images, artificial moons, such as those commonly used for meteorological purposes. in particular, the temporal variation of the infrared image of the area and / or natural gamma, natural radioactive radiation and some of their spectral values, as well as the observed gravimetric changes.

Surface measurements are basically based on seismological measurement data from quake monitoring observatories, and this is complemented by additional physical, geophysical, geodesic and geochemical measurements in the surveyed area. Accordingly, geo-magnetic values (eg with sensitive magnetic variometers and proton-precession instrument), geo-electric values with artificial and natural fields (eg magnetotelluric, audiomagnetotelluric, telluric), electrical resistance and electric are simultaneously and continuously measured (and recorded). geodetic values (eg rock elongation measurements, laser strain measurements, horizontal and vertical displacement measurements, inclination measurements), gravity measurements, earthquake occurrence, and earthquake frequency and wave velocity microscope measurements. Surface measurements are preferably supplemented with biological observations.

These measuring methods are also known per se, and measuring equipment of appropriate technical quality is available. new features in Find-22

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Surface geoelectric and geomagnetic measurements provide valuable information for determining the qualitative and quantitative values of elastic deformations in individual layer assemblies and geostructures with respect to corresponding seismological and hole geophysical data.

Underground measurements are preferably made in deep wells. for example, off-production hydrocarbon exploration *. water, solid mineral exploration and structure exploration wells, hereinafter referred to as "boreholes". mining sites are also suitable for this purpose.

The range of subsurface measurements is the so-called borehole (s) and the so-called borehole (s). borehole fluid, physical, chemical, geophysical, microbiological and spatial and temporal variations in the borehole fluid, bundle layer delimitation, and pore-layer fluid and gas.

These measurements include, but are not limited to, the following:

- seismic measurement in the borehole (s);

- measuring the inclination of the borehole (s);

- measuring the fluid level of the borehole);

- measuring the borehole temperature;

- measurement of electrochemical potential, pressure, gas saturation, optical translucency of hole fluid;

- rocks or bedrock boundaries surrounding the borehole (s). Measuring its "natural potential", its differential electrical potential;

- measuring the natural radioactivity of the rock or stratum;

- measuring the magnetic parameters of rock and stratum assemblies;

- measurement of rock / pore volume change and electrical resistance change;

- measurement of the velocity of water flowing through soil and rocks:

- identification, analysis and quantification of mycobacterium streptomyces and / or mycobacterium methanomonas microorganisms present in or installed in the well fluid.

Some of these measurements, such as changes in thermal and pressure values, have been known to be useful as additional parameters for detecting quakes, but are a fundamentally new feature of the method of the invention to provide a full range of deep-drilling (carotage) geophysical 59 apply.

This is based on the discovery of the invention that from these measurement results one can deduce the elastic deformation in crustal structures, their magnitude and direction, and ultimately the location, direction and magnitude of the variable earthquakes.

In the method according to the invention, measurements underground (deep boreholes) are carried out in suitably selected layers, such as sufficiently porous or compacted layers.

. Measuring points of the subsurface placed orderly geodynamic polygon of the test areas formed in accordance with ⁶⁰ ten (e.g., a desired protected object within) boreholes, and értéke5 measured at two points to each other, the measurement data of the selected reference wells (for example, an observatory on the surface), and relative to the values measured at different depth levels in each borehole.

In the process of the invention, it is preferred that it is one. - parameter values measured in a given deep borehole are measured values by referring to the deep ^'υ borehole. It is also advantageous for the underground measurements to be carried out in several, preferably four, deep boreholes surrounding the objects to be protected, and the values measured therein and their changes to be compared to each other. joint measurement:

(a) liquid temperature, - pressure, gas saturation, - transparency,

b) natural and excited potential, resistance, natural radioactivity, magnetic parameter groups,

(c) a combination of the above-mentioned hole physics, stratum physics and microbiological parameters,

d) one of the parameter groups a, b, c in combination with the top 25 geodetic and seismological measurements.

Underground measurements according to the practice of deep drilling, so called. perforated «θ measuring sensors, which are connected to their surface-based measuring equipment, power supplies, and display instruments by multiple cables. The temperature and pressure conditions involved must be taken into account in the design of these perforations. Instruments 35 connected to the surface by cable may be positioned at optimum depth levels during the process.

In order to carry out the method according to the invention, a state-of-the-art measuring system is provided, which includes automatic measuring devices for performing underground, surface and above-ground measurements.

There is a computer center for measuring systems that processes measurement data collected by remote sensing from automated measuring equipment and, after computer processing and evaluation of the data, orders the alert and the necessary security measures by computer decision.

The method of the present invention is a state-of-the-art metering system that enables automatic monitoring of pre-earthquake processes, remote sensing, data recording, data storage, data processing and evaluation, and thus senses the disaster process at an early stage of development.

The process of the present invention will now be described with reference to the following Examples and Figures, wherein:

Fig. 1 shows a possible embodiment of a measuring system for implementing the method according to the invention, at block diagram level, with details of the underground measuring arrangement; the

Figure 2

192.375 also shows a further possible embodiment of the entire measuring system at block diagram level.

Example 1

Figure 1 illustrates a measuring system for carrying out the method according to the invention, wherein the object to be protected (for example, a nuclear power plant, hydroelectric power station, chemical plant) is surrounded by Fn deep boreholes (where n is preferably four). Underground detection systems designed as perforations. In our example, the In sensor system is located at the base Tn at the depth Zn. Ζή Depth level. a sufficiently porous layer composition as opposed to an additional 2n sensor system and Zfi depth. an additional 3n sensor system is placed opposite a solid rock. The In sensor system located at the base Tn measures the base pressure, the base temperature and their changes, as well as the base vibrations and the vibrations of at least two sound frequency bands selected with respect to the rock's elastic properties. To perform these measurements, the In sensor system is designed as a combination of known measuring instruments used in geophysical geophysical drilling practice. for example, for measuring foot pressure and pressure change, as well as temperature and temperature change using the apparatus described in A 188 -2020 (trademark AQUAGEOLOG) as described in U. S. Patent No. 188,920.

Within the auxiliary 2n sensor system located at the depth of Zh ', opposite to the porous layer assembly, the pressure, temperature and gradients (values of differential changes) of the well fluid (Fn deep well) are measured by measuring the translucency, the vertical and horizontal values of electrical resistance and current, and the electrochemical potential, and their changes. The population of microorganisms in the well fluid and its change over time are also measured. These measurements are also made using known measuring instruments. The instrumentation used in the 1n sensor system is also suitable for measuring the pressure and temperature of the hole fluid.

For measuring electrical resistance or conductivity, for measuring natural or excited potential, and for electrochemical potential

146.046; "Procedure and Equipment for Drilled Holes ...

(Márföldi G. et al.) HU or the corresponding

No. 215,172 AT patent specification,

154.144; "Rectangular Spectral Frequency ..." (G. Márföldi et al.)

154,533; "Selective Static Excitation Potentials ... (G. Márföldi et al) HU Patent

163,743; "Process and equipment of minerals ... (G. Márföldi et al.) CA and U.S. Patent Nos. 7006178-3. Measuring devices according to SE patents may be used.

The instruments for measuring electrical and electrochemical potential are provided with pairs of electrodes designed to sense the vertical and horizontal components of these values, and accordingly have separate measuring channels.

In the borehole Fn, an additional auxiliary sensor system 3n is located at depth ZH, as shown in Figure 1, against a sufficiently dense rock.

(It is feasible and, depending on the petrochemical conditions of the area under investigation, it is suggested that the 3n and 2n detection systems be the same ZA and Z "

2n sensor systems are placed at the same Zn and Zn depths.) In our example, the additional 3n sensor system measures natural radioactivity, magnetic parameters, and acoustic signals and their changes.

The acoustic frequency sensing unit has at least one selective filter element tuned to an infrared, audio or ultrasonic frequency. In our example, we use state-of-the-art measuring equipment (eg MÁELGI K3OO-K15OO series) to measure natural radioactivity from known devices.

The instruments of the In, 2n, and 3n sensing systems are probe-shaped in accordance with deep drilling geophysical practice, and are liquid, pressure and heat resistant in ambient conditions, preferably in a compact design according to the measurement groupings listed above. These instruments are connected to a surface receiving receiver, such as a 6n multichannel recording system, by means of a 5n transmission element (with a sufficient number of multiple carotage cables) and, if necessary, 4n amplifier filter units. The 6n multichannel recording system is made up of recording and storage elements of known structure, which consist of mechanical (e.g., line-writer), optical, magnetic and digital signal recording devices, or combinations thereof. In addition to the measurement data, the 6n multi-channel recording system records the spatial and time parameters associated with each measurement data.

A further important element of the developed measuring system is an O-quartz observatory, whose seismograph equipment provides surface and reference data. The O Shake Alert Observatory connects to other remote locations through the Tr telecommunication measurement system, thereby connecting to the national and / or international shake alert network. The Tr telecommunication measurement system also receives measurement data from the surface, such as from a satellite (or satellites), such as the value of the infrared image and radioactive radiation of the area and any change thereof. The measurement data of the O-alarm monitoring observatory and the Tr measuring telecommunication measuring system, together with the corresponding spatial and time parameters, are also recorded and stored by means of the 6n multi-channel recording system, which is represented in FIG. 6 n dashed arrows pointing to a multi-channel recording system. The center of the measuring system, where the necessary security measures, eg the alarm is triggered * in our example by O-41

192,375 flags are installed in the observatory. (This makes economical use of the remote signaling equipment of the 0-quartz observatory). The measurement data stored in the 6n multichannel recording system is thus simultaneously transmitted to the quake tracking observatory 0, and more specifically to the measuring center therein, as indicated by the dashed arrow pointing from the 6n multichannel recording system to the quake tracking observatory 0. By means of the measuring system thus formed (the block diagram of which is shown in Figure 1), the process according to the invention is carried out as follows:

Underground measurement data from In, 2n and 3n sensing systems located in Fn deep boreholes, which Fn deep boreholes are located around the object to be protected, are located in the appropriate geodynamic polygon; and further and above-ground measurement data are simultaneously and continuously received in the 6n multi-channel recording system and simultaneously processed and interpreted in the measurement center.

Processing of measurement data means, on the one hand, determining the amplitudes of the measurement signals, their maximum values, the possible periodicity of the signals (cycle parameters of the processes), their time changes (first differential) and the speed of changes (second differential). some of which are related, some are independent values - we value them together. In this case, the measurement data obtained from each Fn deep borehole is examined (determined) over time for each measurement parameter (e.g., pressure, temperature, electrical resistance, electrochemical potential) at each measurement point (i.e. relative to itself); the relationship between the values of the same parameters measured in the same Fn borehole, the different depths Zn, Zn '2Sri, and the temporal variation of these conditions (i.e., spatial and temporal variations), and preferably the values measured at the base Tn; further examining (determining) the relationship between the same parameter values in each Fn deep borehole and the changes in these relationships (i.e., spatial and temporal changes simultaneously), and preferably the values measured at the base Tn are used as a basis for comparison; further examining (determining) the relationship between the same parameter values in each Fn deep borehole and the changes in these relationships (e.g., changes in footprints or foot temperatures at Tn soles); furthermore, we examine (determine) the magnitude of the combined changes of certain properly selected parameter combinations, both spatially and temporally, according to the above reference systems and measurement characteristics such as amplitude, periodicity, rate of change. For example, the combined evaluation of pore volume, fluid resistance, layer temperature, electrochemical potential, layer pressure, and adequate level changes of microparticles, which can sometimes be supplemented by a complete set of parameters detected by a complete measuring system built into a dashboard.

We also investigate and determine the intensity of the changes measured on the surface and above the surface and their relation to the rate of change of the values measured below the surface. Thus, it is an essential feature of the process to evaluate underground measurements for surface (seismological) reference data in our example, and for surface (e.g., infrared, radioactive radiation changes in the area) data to be compared with and taken into account. the specific geological environment, morphological and topological data, and the basic seismic characteristics of the area.

The measurement results processed in this way are evaluated. The spatial and temporal variations in the values of each parameter and parameter group, the magnitude and periodicity of the rate of change, etc. determining the time series of processes that may be developing; and using a so-called praedictor program to quantify these time series, we quantify with probability the time and magnitude of the expected earthquakes.

Depending on the result of the interpretation task, an earthquake hazard is likely to occur whenever we obtain two previously independent critical values (or sets of parameters) as a result of extrapolation, and alert and instruct you to take the necessary safety measures. We consider this evaluation with a very high degree of security to be essential due to the extreme importance of the task for the safety of life and property. The economic damage caused by an operating nuclear power plant or chemical plant that produces toxic materials that is damaged by an earthquake is many times more than the value we "spend" unnecessarily on the use of the process of the invention due to excessive precaution. out to endanger eg. disable that object. For this reason, we are proposing to avoid a catastrophe that requires human sacrifices at the same time as the economic damage that occurs, not in the economically optimal, but in the most likely case.

Example 2

Fig. 2 shows a further embodiment of a measuring system for implementing the method according to the invention at block diagram level.

As shown in the figure, the surface seismological measurement data is provided by 0 shake observatory, the signals of 11 seismograph groups preferably being applied to the A / D analog-to-digital converter via amplifier unit E, and the corresponding amplitude level and frequency signals converted in this way are to your computer center. Further surface measurements, including underground measurements, are measured using the AM automatic measuring system, some of which are installed in the area under study and in the vicinity of the object to be protected, taking into account geographical and petrological conditions during installation.

In our example, surface measurements include geomagnetic, gravimetric, geoelectric, and geodetic measurements; accordingly, the surface measuring instruments of the AM automated measuring system are a 12-gauge, such as an MTA

192 375

GGKI MTV-2 variometer, induction probe, proton-process magnetonether, gravimeter, laser strain meter, rock-strain gauge attached to it and 15 geoelectric gauges (eg induction probe).

These measuring instruments are the geophysical, geodesic measuring tech. in the art, of course, for purposes other than the invention.

Of the many known types of measuring instruments, it is expedient to design our measuring system according to No. 186,678. Measuring devices according to HU patent specification "Method and circuit arrangement for determining soil structural and condition characteristics ..." are also used.

Measurements are made continuously with the listed measuring instruments, and with appropriate sampling frequency, and at the same time, underground measurements are made with instruments installed in Fn deep boreholes around the object to be protected, as described in Example 1.

A further element of the AM automatic measuring system is a remote sensing measuring system Tr, which receives, on the one hand, measurement data from the surface, such as a satellite, such as changes in the infrared image of the area and natural radioactive radiation, and

Certain surface and above-ground measuring instruments of the AM automatic measuring system, such as the 12 magnetometers, the 13 gravimeters, the 14 laser strain meters, the 15 geoelectric and 15 The remote sensing measuring system Tr is connected to an A / D 'analog-to-digital converter via this amplifier, and the measurement data is also transmitted to the SZK computer center via the radio transmitter RA' at its output.

The SZK Computer Center communicates with RV and RV 'radio receivers with the RA - and AM - RA radio transmitters. The RV and RV 'radio receivers are connected to the AF receiver of the SZK computer center. The measured, converted, and telegraphed measurement data of the method are provided to the AF receiver with the time signals of a T clock connected to the AF receiver, and then transmitted to a recording unit, for example, a TK ink recorder and an AT data storage. The measurement data is transmitted, received, stored and / or illustrated analogously simultaneously and continuously with the measurements. The output of the AT data storage device is connected to the SZK computer center's IT unit, where the measurement data are processed and evaluated at the same time. The SZTE computing unit is also known in its own right and, as usual, contains a SZG computer as well as connecting peripherals, a DP display, an M tape recorder and a KO console. Depending on the results of data processing and interpretation according to the method of the present invention, the SZTE computing unit operates an HFR acoustic light alarm at its output in the event of an earthquake emergency. The HFR acoustic alarm also alerts you in the event of a malfunction of the 0 quartz warning observatory and / or AM automatic measuring system.

The SZG computer of the SZTE computing unit performs the data processing with the help of programs complying with the data processing aspects described in Figure 1, and then evaluates the obtained data and function series. (The so-called praedictor program, which extrapolates quantitatively the parameters and increments of the measurement system, automatically interprets the measured and determined data).

In addition to the automatic digital data processing and interpretation of the SZG computer, the direct (analog) display of the measurement data is also of great importance, as implemented in our example by the TK inkjet. In the interpretation of unexpected, surprisingly new processes, even in the case of fully automatic systems, the role of the creative human mind cannot be neglected or underestimated.

As stated in the example shown in Fig. 1, in the case of the method according to the invention, whenever a value previously considered critical for two independent parameters is obtained as a result of data processing and interpretation, the SZTE computer unit indicates an earthquake hazard and the necessary security measures are taken.

The measurement method of the present invention extending to deeper layer assemblies, to the detection of physical, chemical and microbiological parameters of the fluidic porous and borehole fluid, and to the complex processing method employed during the process, such that changes in individual parameters over time and space comparing itself with each other and as a combination of certain parameter combinations, and the procedural characteristic of evaluating underground measurement results with respect to surface and above-surface measurements, taking into account the prevailing geographical, petrological conditions - allows the tectonic processes to be and in its unfolding phase, traced back to the definition of elastic layer deformations.

The method of the present invention provides an opportunity for further development of interpretation by means of its measurement data, which comprise a large number of coherent measurement systems, and by a complex reference system for their processing.

Using the SZG computer, self-evaluation and student-correction programs, using the mathematical toolbox of prognostics, we can already provide a quantitative probability value for the time and magnitude of expected earthquakes in the initial phase of vibration shocks.

The method of the present invention is rendered effective and suitable for the full realization of the object of the invention by the use of automatic metering, remote sensing, and advanced computer data processing and evaluation.

Implementing this procedure opens the door to preventive protection of high value, high risk installations (eg mines, power plants, chemical plants, etc.) by shutting down the facility and / or protecting human and material assets in the event of an earthquake prediction.

The economic value of the procedure and the importance of protecting life are obvious. Application of significant national economy

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Claims (12)

1. A method for predicting or detecting earthquakes, whether natural or artificial, and for the preventive protection of facilities involving seismological and geodetic measurements on the surface and below, recording, telemetry, processing, and predetermined values. If the criterion is met, an alarm signal is provided, which, in addition to the seismological measurements, at the same time, continuously or at intervals depending on the nature of the measurements - gases and liquids and / or boreholes in the boreholes, measuring the physical, chemical, and microbiological parameters of the pores and layers that fill their pores; geoelectric and geomagnetic measurements are performed on the surface, and measurements are made also above the surface, namely the infrared thermal image and / or natural gamma, natural radioactive radiation of the area under study, and their first and second derivatives are determined by computer processing the relative values of the measured parameters or selected parameter groups and their variations, and then the time functions obtained by processing are extrapolated, and the predetermined criterion is the condition whereby at least two independently determined empirical critical values are obtained as a result of extrapolation , and in this case alert you to an earthquake. Method according to claim 1, characterized in that the underground measurements are made in deep wells at the same time at several depth levels, at the bottom of the well and against a sufficiently porous and / or sufficiently dense aggregate, and the values measured against each other, preferably at the bottom. compared. Method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that the underground measurements are made in several deep boreholes, and in each deep borehole the measurement results for the same parameters or groups of parameters and their changes are compared. 4. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that pressure and temperature measurements are carried out in the boreholes. 5. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that measurements of electrical resistance, natural potential and current change are carried out in the boreholes. 10 Method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that natural radioactivity and / or spectrum measurements are made in the deep boreholes. 7. procedure according to any of claims ₁ - Rás characterized in that the deep boreholes for ^1h Kus acoustics waves the generation and propagation. 8. Method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that gas saturation, liquid transparency measurements are made in the deep wells, and / Determined by 20% ^v y is preferably selected from microbial population analysis. 9. Method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that geodetic and geoelectric measurements are performed simultaneously on the surface of the earth, and during the geodetic measurements, surface topographic micro-changes are detected both horizontally and vertically, preferably using laser strainmeters. 10. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that gravimetric changes are measured on and above the surface. 30 11. Method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that biological (zoological-behavioral) observations are carried out on or above the surface. 12. A method according to any preceding claim characterized in that the dimensions of the underground in a plurality, preferably four, geologically suitably selected, in the study area, such as the protected object deep boreholes surrounding and values and their changes of the measured individual boreholes parameters together viszonyit40 J ^uk 13. A method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that, during electrical and electrochemical measurements, the sensing elements comprise separate electrode pairs or separate measuring channels for detecting their vertical and horizontal components.