GB2556828A - Congestion predicting system and congestion predicting method - Google Patents

Abstract

Provided is a technology for enabling determination of an appropriate countermeasure against congestion requiring a countermeasure and an appropriate time to perform the appropriate countermeasure, in management of the congestion condition in a predetermined space. This congestion predicting system includes: a countermeasure candidate database storing information about countermeasure candidates which can be performed against congestion in a predetermined space; a simulation unit that calculates future change in a congestion index value for the predetermined space; a countermeasure requiring congestion detecting unit that detects, when the congestion index value is greater than a predetermined threshold, countermeasure requiring congestion which requires a countermeasure and which is specified using a space and a time; and an output unit that outputs an evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate, the result including whether a congestion index value calculated through simulation under a condition where a countermeasure candidate applicable to the space in which the countermeasure requiring congestion was detected is applied is greater than the threshold or not.

Description

(56) Documents Cited:

JP 2015094704 A JP 2000020759 A

JP 2002187551 A (32) 29.09.2015 (33) JP (58) Field of Search:

INT CL G06F, G06Q, G08B, G08G (86) International Application Data:

PCT/JP2016/059093 Ja 23.03.2016 (87) International Publication Data:

WO2017/056528 Ja 06.04.2017 (71) Applicant(s):

Hitachi Ltd

6-6, Marunouchi 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku 100-8280, Tokyo, Japan (72) Inventor(s):

Rui Ning Manabu Katou Masayasu Fujiwara (74) Agent and/or Address for Service:

Mewburn Ellis LLP

City Tower, 40 Basinghall Street, LONDON, Greater London, EC2V 5DE, United Kingdom (54) Title ofthe Invention: Congestion predicting system and congestion predicting method Abstract Title: Congestion predicting system and congestion predicting method (57) Provided is a technology for enabling determination of an appropriate countermeasure against congestion requiring a countermeasure and an appropriate time to perform the appropriate countermeasure, in management ofthe congestion condition in a predetermined space. This congestion predicting system includes: a countermeasure candidate database storing information about countermeasure candidates which can be performed against congestion in a predetermined space; a simulation unit that calculates future change in a congestion index value for the predetermined space; a countermeasure requiring congestion detecting unit that detects, when the congestion index value is greater than a predetermined threshold, countermeasure requiring congestion which requires a countermeasure and which is specified using a space and a time; and an output unit that outputs an evaluation result ofthe countermeasure candidate, the result including whether a congestion index value calculated through simulation under a condition where a countermeasure candidate applicable to the space in which the countermeasure requiring congestion was detected is applied is greater than the threshold or not.

CSi]

111 Predicted number-of-people information database

112 Space information database

113 Countermeasure candidate database

120 Simulation unit

130 Countermeasure requiring congestion detecting unit 140 Countermeasure start time calculating unit 150 Condition changing unit

160 Countermeasure priority evaluating unit

170 Countermeasure plan evaluating unit

180 Output unit /12

111 112

z

DEPARTURE PLACE	START TIME ARRIVAL TIME	FINISH TIME DEPARTURE TIME	DESTINATION
PLATFORM 1	PLATFORM 2	GATEWAY 1	GATEWAY 2
GATEWAY 1	7:00	7:10	10	15	0	0
PLATFORM (TRAIN 1)	7:01	7:02	0	30	36	42
GATEWAY 1	7:10	7:20	20	22	0	0
PLATFORM (TRAIN 2)	7:04	7:05	0	45	44	56
. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .	. . .

2/12

220

FIG. 3 □ PASSAGE wall

STAIRS

TICKET GATE MACHINE GATEWAY AND RIDE POSITION

FI	0 S	&		ίίέ“ 11· ““ r · co iS t:· s·:· :ss	$ Bi «
0 5 :g. 4	10 15 20 230 Z...
#	SUBPLACE NAME	RANGE	SUBSPACE PRIORITY	CONNECTION POINT	CONNECTION PORTION SPACE NAME
1	PLATFORM 1	RANGE 1 (A001)	10	STAIRS 1 (A011)	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
STAIRS 2 (A012)	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
2	PLATFORM 2	RANGE 2 (A002)	10	STAIRS 3 (A013)	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
STAIRS 4 (A014)	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
3	INSIDE CONCOURSE	RANGE 3 (A003)	5	STAIRS 1 (A011)	PLATFORM 1
STAIRS 2 (A012)	PLATFORM 1
STAIRS 3 (A013)	PLATFORM 2
STAIRS 4 (A014)	PLATFORM 2
TICKET GATE MACHINE 1 (A021)	OUTSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
. . .	. . .
4	OUTSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE	RANGE 4 (A004)	3	TICKET GATE MACHINE 1 (A021)	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
. . .	, . .

3/12

Z.

	SUBSPACE NAME
TIME			INSIDE	OUTSIDE
	PLATFORM 1	PLATFORM 2	CONCOURSE	CONCOURSE
			TICKET GATE	TICKET GATE
7:00	24	65	21	36
7:01	125	60	44	32
7:02	65	165	56	38
7:03	22	110	52	41
7:04	45	74	48	37
7:05	66	62	42	34
7:06	118	71	56	32
7:07	72	178	51	39
7:08	42	105	47	35
7:09	54	62	41	29
7:10	77	74	48	31

250

#	TARGET SUBSPACE NAME	TARGET POINT	COUNTERMEASURE STATE
1 2 3 4 8 9 10 11	PLATFORM 1	STAIRS 1	BOTH DIRECTIONS
ONE WAY (ENTRY)
ONE WAY (EXIT)
NO ENTRY
STAIRS 2	BOTH DIRECTIONS
ONE WAY (ENTRY)
ONE WAY (EXIT)
NO ENTRY
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE	TICKET GATE MACHINE 1	BOTH DIRECTIONS
ONE WAY (ENTRY)
ONE WAY (EXIT)
NO ENTRY
STAIRS 1	BOTH DIRECTIONS
ONE WAY (ENTRY)
ONE WAY (EXIT)
NO ENTRY
. . .	. . .
	. . .	. . .	. . .

270

#	DETECTED SUBSPACE NAME	PREDICTED CONGESTION TIME	MAXIMUM CONGESTION
1	PLATFORM 1	8:50-9:20	98
2	PLATFORM 2	8:50-9:20	96
3	INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE	8:40-9:00	77

TARGET SUBSPACE : PLATFORM 1

PREDICTED CONGESTION 21 TIME:8:50-9:20

#	TARGET	STATE	COUNTERMEASURE START TIME
1	STAIRS 1	ONE WAY (EXIT)	8:30
2	STAIRS 2	ONE WAY (EXIT)	8:20
	TICKET GATE
3	MACHINE 1	ONE WAY (EXIT)	8:10

5/12

6/12

(1) CALCULATION OF VARIATION IN SECOND CONGESTION PREDICTION RESULTS AT TIMES s AND t

CONGESTION INDEX IN CONCOURSE

FIRST CONGESTION PREDICTION RESULT (COUNTERMEASURE NOT IMPLEMENTED)

THRESHOLD

SECOND CONGESTION PREDICTION RESULT ./(COUNTERMEASURE IMPLEMENTED)

CONGESTION

INDEX

MAXIMUM VALUE

TIME

CURRENT TIME s TIME t TIME (2) CALCULATION OF MEASURES START TIME

CONGESTION INDEX IN CONCOURSE

CONGESTION INDEX

FIRST CONGESTION PREDICTION RESULT (COUNTERMEASURE NOT IMPLEMENTED)

THRESHOLD

SECOND CONGESTION PREDICTION RESULT /(COUNTERMEASURE IMPLEMENTED)

TARGET POINT

TIME

CURRENT TIME s TIME t TIME

7/12

5104

5105

8/12

FIG. 14

5201

5202

5203

5204

5205

5206

5207

9/12

11/12

COUNTERMEASURE PRIORITY EVALUATION RESULT DISPLAY SCREEN

HIGH+-COUNTERMEASURE PRIORITY-*LOW

PLATFORM 1
PLATFORM 2
INSIDE CONCOURSE TICKET GATE
I

PROPOSED COUNTERMEASURE EVALUATION RESULT DISPLAY SCREEN

TARGET SUBSPACE:PLATFORM 1	PREDICTED CONGESTION TIME:8:50-9:20 (
#	TARGET	STATE	COUNTERMEASURE START TIME	CONGESTION RELAXATION EVALUATION VALUE	PROPOSED COUNTER- MEASURE EVALUATION VALUE
1	STAIRS 1	ONE WAY (EXIT)	8:30	95	98
2	STAIRS 2	ONE WAY (EXIT)	8:20	92	96
3	TICKET GATE MACHINE 1	ONE WAY (EXIT)	8:10	86	91

PERSON-IN-CHARGE SETTING SCREEN )
PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION COUNTERMEASURE TARGETSTAIR CURREN	COUNTERMEASURE IMPLEMENTATION / SI TIME:8:30-9:20 CONTENTS: ONE WAY(EXIT) / T TIME 8:00 9:00 10:00(
STATION STAFF A
STATION STAFF B
I

PROPOSED COUNTERMEASURE IMPLEMENTATION CONTENT INSTRUCTION SCREEN

CURRENT TIME 8:(

9:(

10:00

IMPLEM CONTENTS

PASSENGER GUIDANCE TARGETPLATFORM 1 STAIRS 1 DIRECTION: ONE WAY (EXIT) TIME: 8:30 TO 9:20

12/12

DESCRIPTION

Title of Invention: CONGESTION PREDICTING SYSTEM AND CONGESTION

PREDICTING METHOD

Technical Field [0001]

The present invention relates to a technique for managing a congestion situation of a predetermined space.

Background Art [0002]

There are various spaces (hereinafter also referred to as subspaces) such as platforms and concourses through which passengers come and go or in which the passengers move at a railway station. In the above spaces of the railway station, congestion frequently increases under the influence of a railway transportation trouble or an event, in addition to the occurrence of daily congestion in commuting time zones or the like. The increase in congestion increases a time required for the passengers to get on and off trains, which causes concern that a train operation is delayed or a crowed accident such that the passengers fall from the platform occurs.

[0003]

In order to prevent the train delay and the crowed accident due to the congestion at the railway station, it is important to predict a future congestion of the passengers in the spaces of the railway station and to take appropriate countermeasure before the train delay and the crowed accident occurs.

[0004]

Patent Literature 1 discloses an event security monitoring device having a function of measuring the number of people entering a security target area and the number of people leaving the security target area with the use of a camera, and predicting the number or density of passengers in the security target area based on the number of entered and left people, a function of setting a danger alarm value concerning a congestion (occupancy) in the security target area in advance and notifying an alarm for informing a danger when a predicted value of congestion exceeds the danger alarm value, and a function of predicting a congestion situation in a case of carrying out traffic restrictions.

Citation List

Patent Literature [0005]

Patent Literature 1: Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication

No. 2004-178358

Summary of Invention

Technical Problem [0006]

However, the event security monitoring device disclosed in Patent

Literature 1 has the function of predicting the congestion situation when the traffic regulations are carried out, but does not evaluate a quality of the traffic regulations. For that reason, an observer is required to determine what kind of countermeasure to be implemented is appropriate by himself when the congestion alarm is issued.

[0007]

An object of the present invention is to provide a technique that makes it possible to determine an appropriate countermeasure and appropriate execution time for congestion that requires a countermeasure in managing a congestion situation of a predetermined space .

Solution to Problem [0008]

According to an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a congestion predicting system, including a countermeasure candidate database that stores information on countermeasure candidates executable against a congestion in a predetermined space, a simulation unit that calculates a transition of a congestion index value in a future time for the predetermined space, a congestion required congestion detection unit that detects a countermeasure required congestion which requires a countermeasure and is specified by a space and a time when the congestion index value exceeds a predetermined threshold, and an output unit that outputs an evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including whether or not the congestion index value calculated by a simulation under a condition applying a countermeasure candidate applicable to a space in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected exceeds the threshold value.

Advantageous Effects of Invention [0009]

According to the present invention, since the countermeasure candidate applicable to the countermeasure required congestion and the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate are output together with the space and the time in which the countermeasure required congestion occurs, appropriate countermeasure against the countermeasure required congestion is easily determined.

Brief Description of Drawings [0010]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a congestion predicting system according to the present embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a predicted number of people information 210 recorded in a predicted number of people information database 111.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of spatial information 220 recorded in a spatial information database 112.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of subspace information

230 recorded in the spatial information database 112.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a range of each subspace included in the subspace information 230 of FIG. 4 on a plane surface.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a congestion prediction result 240 calculated by simulation.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of a countermeasure candidate

250 recorded in a countermeasure candidate database 113.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of countermeasure required congestion information 270 which is data to be output when the measure required congestion detection unit 130 detects a countermeasure required congestion.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing data of a countermeasure candidate combining a countermeasure candidate 250 against the countermeasure required congestion with a countermeasure start time.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 which is data obtained by evaluating a priority with which the countermeasure is to be implemented against the countermeasure required congestion and adding a final countermeasure start time and a countermeasure priority evaluation value.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300 which is data obtained by adding a congestion relaxation evaluation value and a proposed countermeasure evaluation value to a proposed countermeasure 280 shown in FIG. 9.

FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a processing example of a countermeasure start time calculation unit 140.

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing a processing example of the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140.

FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing a processing example of a countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160.

FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing a processing example of a countermeasure evaluation unit 170.

FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing a processing example of an output unit 180.

FIG. 17 is a diagram showing an example of a screen display by the output unit 180.

FIG. 18 is a flowchart showing a processing example of the entire system.

Description of Embodiments [0011]

Hereinafter, a congestion predicting system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings .

<Configuration>

[0012]

FIG. lisa diagram showing a configuration example of a congestion predicting system according to the present embodiment. The congestion predicting system is configured by a computer system that monitors a congestion situation of passengers in a space of a railroad station and supports implementation of countermeasure by an observer as necessary. The congestion predicting system includes one computer or multiple computers that are connected to each other.

[0013]

The congestion predicting system includes a predicted number of people information database 111, a spatial information database 112, a countermeasure candidate database 113, a simulation unit 120, a countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130, a countermeasure start time calculation unit 140, a condition change unit

150, a countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160, a proposed countermeasure evaluation unit 170, and an output unit 180. The congestion predicting system uses, as data, a predicted number of people information 210 shown in FIG. 2, spatial information 220 shown in FIG.

3, subspace information 230 shown in FIG. 4, a congestion prediction result 240 shown in FIG. 6, a countermeasure candidate 250 shown in

FIG. 7, countermeasure required congestion information 270 shown in

FIG. 8, a proposed countermeasure 280 shown in FIG. 9, a countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 shown in FIG. 10, and a proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300 shown in FIG. 11, and executes processing.

[0014]

The congestion predicting system includes a predicted number of people information database 111 in which the predicted number of people information 210 is recorded, a spatial information database 112 in which the spatial information 220 and the subspace information 230 are recorded, and a countermeasure candidate database 113 in which the countermeasure candidate 250 is recorded, as databases. The predicted number of people information 210 is data indicating a state of movement of passengers for each time zone in the railway station.

[0015]

The simulation unit 120 receives the predicted number of people information 210 and the spatial information 220, predicts a congestion situation of each subspace of a space represented by the spatial information 220 when the passengers move in the space as indicated in the predicted number of people information 210, and outputs a prediction result as the congestion prediction result 240. The congestion prediction result 240 is a table showing the degree of congestion (congestion index value) in each subspace at each time.

[0016]

The countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 receives the congestion prediction result 240 and determines whether or not the congestion index value indicated by the congestion prediction result 240 exceeds a predetermined threshold. When it is detected that

- 8 the congestion index value exceeds the threshold, the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 outputs a countermeasure required congestion information 270 for identifying the countermeasure required congestion which is a congestion requiring countermeasure based on a time when the congestion index value exceeds the threshold and information on the subspaces. The time to specify the countermeasure required congestion is a predicted congestion time, and the subspaces are indicated by detected subspace names.

[0017]

The countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 receives the countermeasure candidate 250 having the detected subspace name of the countermeasure required congestion information 270 as a target subspace name, and outputs a countermeasure start time that is a time at which the implementation of the countermeasure candidate 250 is to start at the latest so that the congestion index value does not exceed the threshold. The countermeasure candidate is a candidate for the countermeasure to be implemented on the countermeasure required congestion.

[0018]

The condition change unit 150 outputs the predicted number of people information 210 and the spatial information 220 when the proposed countermeasure 280 is applied as a countermeasure against the countermeasure required congestion. The proposed countermeasure 280 includes the countermeasure candidate 250 and the countermeasure start time that is a time to start the application of the countermeasure candidate 250. After the application of the countermeasure candidate

250 starts at the countermeasure start time, the movement of the passengers in each subspace changes.

[0019]

The countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 evaluates the priority of each countermeasure required congestion and outputs the evaluation result as the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 .

In the present embodiment, the countermeasure required congestion is evaluated based on the degree of influence of congestion in the subspace, an extension time until a time when the countermeasure candidate is to be carried out for the purpose of avoiding a state requiring the countermeasure, and so on.

[0020]

The proposed countermeasure evaluation unit 170 receives the predicted number of people information 210 and the spatial information

220, which have been changed by the condition change unit 150, and evaluates the proposed countermeasure 280 with the use of the congestion prediction result 240 in the case of applying the proposed countermeasure 280, which is calculated by the simulation unit 120, and outputs the evaluation result as the proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300.

[0021]

The output unit 180 receives the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 and the proposed countermeasure evaluation result

300, and displays the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 and the proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300 to a computer terminal possessed by a person (for example, a guide) who is to implement the countermeasure.

<Function>

[0022]

Next, the functions of the respective units of the congestion predicting system will be described in more detail individually.

[0023]

The predicted number of person information database 111 is a database that records the predicted number of person information 210 and has functions of recording, retrieving, and reading. The predicted number of person information 210 stored in the predicted number of person inf ormation database 111 is a predicted value . For example, a predicted value of the number of people information 210 may be sequentially calculated with the use of a known route simulation with the input of record data of the number of people passing through a ticket gate machine, and sequentially additionally stored in the predicted number of person information database 111.

[0024]

The spatial information database 112 is a database for recording the spatial information 220 and the subspace information 230 and has functions of recording, retrieving, and reading. The spatial information 220 and the subspace information 230 are created for each station targeted for congestion prediction in advance. The spatial information 220 is map data in which a space in the railway station is divided into a lattice shape and a function of each position is allocated to each lattice. The subspace information 230 is information in which a range and an attribute of each subspace defined in a predetermined range included in the overall space are allocated to the subspace .

[0025]

The countermeasure candidate database 113 is a database for recording the countermeasure candidate 250 and has functions of recording, searching and reading. The countermeasure candidate 250 is list data of countermeasure candidates applicable to the congestion for each subspace. The countermeasure candidate 250 is created in advance for each station to be subjected to the congestion prediction.

[0026]

The simulation unit 120 receives the predicted number of people information 210, the spatial information 220, and the subspace information 230. Then, the simulation unit 120 predicts a congestion situation in a space represented by the spatial information 220 with the use of a known pedestrian simulation device when the movement of the passengers occurs in the space according to the predicted number of person information 210. Then, the simulation unit 120 outputs the congestion prediction result 240 which is a transition of a time series of the congestion index value of each subspace. The congestion index indicates the number of people staying in the space, a crowded density, and a flow line density. In the present embodiment, a well-known cellular automaton is used as an example of the pedestrian simulation device .

[0027]

The countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 receives the congestion prediction result 240 output from the simulation unit 120. Then, the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 determines whether or not data indicative of a congestion exceeding a threshold for determining whether to require the countermeasure or not is present in the congestion prediction result

240 for each subspace. If the data exceeding the threshold is present, the measure required congestion detection unit 130 outputs information on the subspace and time as the countermeasure required congestion information 270. The threshold may be indicative of, for example, an index value that a risk of a crowded accident is assumed to be equal to or higher than a predetermined value, or an index value input by an observer in advance, in the used congestion index.

[0028]

The countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 sets the congestion prediction result 240 of a subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected as a first congestion prediction result when the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 outputs the countermeasure required congestion information 270. The countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 creates temporary proposed countermeasure 280 with an arbitrary time within a range from the current time to a time at which the countermeasure required congestion is detected as a temporary countermeasure start time for the countermeasure candidate, and inputs the created temporary proposed countermeasure 280 to the condition change unit 150. The countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 sets the congestion prediction result 240 of the subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected, which is calculated in the simulation unit 120 as a second congestion prediction result. The countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 calculates the countermeasure start time that is a time at which the congestion condition is to be implemented at the latest in order to implement the countermeasure candidate so that the congestion index value does not exceed the threshold, with the use of the first congestion prediction result and the second congestion prediction.

[0029]

The condition change unit 150 receives the proposed countermeasure 280, changes at least one of the predicted number of people information 210 and the spatial information 220 based on the proposed countermeasure 280, and outputs the changed predicted number of person information 210 and the changed spatial information 220.

Assuming that the countermeasure candidate is applied to the countermeasure required congestion at the countermeasure start time, for example, when receiving the proposed countermeasure 280 that a direction of the ticket gate machine is changed from both directions to one way (exit), the condition change unit 150 outputs the spatial information 220 in which the ticket gate machine is subjected to a change from both directions to one way (exit) at the countermeasure start time to the spatial information 220. The condition change unit 150 inputs the changed spatial information 220 and the changed predicted number of people information 210 to the simulation unit 120, thereby being capable of performing the congestion prediction when the proposed countermeasure 280 is applied, and obtaining the congestion prediction result 240 at that time.

[0030]

When the countermeasure required congestion has been detected by the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130, the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 receives the countermeasure required congestion information 270. Then, the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 calculates a countermeasure priority evaluation value with the use of the congestion prediction result of a subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is generated, the countermeasure candidate and the countermeasure start time for the subspace, and a priority of the subspace. Then, the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 outputs the calculation result as the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290.

[0031]

The proposed countermeasure evaluation unit 170 receives a congestion prediction result when the proposed countermeasure 280 including the countermeasure candidate and the countermeasure start time is applied in the simulation unit 120. Then, the proposed countermeasure evaluation unit 120 calculates an evaluation value when the countermeasure candidate is applied, and outputs a calculation result as the proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300.

[0032]

The output unit 180 has a function of outputting the countermeasure priority evaluation result and the proposed countermeasure evaluation result and displaying the output results on a screen. The display is performed on, for example, a computer held by a station staff who is an observer, or a digital signage within an inside of the station for the purpose of providing information to the passengers. The countermeasure priority evaluation result is prioritized and displayed based on the countermeasure priority evaluation value. The countermeasure evaluation result is prioritized and displayed based on the proposed countermeasure evaluation value of the proposed countermeasure evaluation result. The expression the result is prioritized and displayed means, for example, that the result is aligned and displayed in order based on the evaluation value, or that a design of size, color, icon, or the like to be displayed is changed according to the evaluation value.

[0033]

The functions of the respective units of the congestion predicting system according to the present embodiment as described above are realized by a computer having a calculation device, a control device, a storage device, and an input and output device and software operating on the computer. In addition, the congestion predicting system may be configured by multiple components, and in that case, the respective components can be connected to each other through a bus or a network and perform a data communication with each other.

<Description of Data>

[0034]

Next, various data used in the congestion predicting system will be described.

[0035]

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the predicted number of people information 210 recorded in the predicted number of person information database 111. The predicted number of people information

210 is data in which the number of passengers moving between a departure place and a destination is recorded every time for each combination of the departure place and the destination. In the inside of the station, gateways of the station and platforms (trains) represent the departure places and the destinations. When the departure place is the platform (train), an arrival time of the train is set as a start time and a departure time of the train is set as an end time.

[0036]

For example, in FIG. 2, the departure point 1 is departure point

1, the number of persons who move from a gateway 1 as the departure place to a platform 1 as the destination between a time 7:00 and a time

7:10 is ten. In addition, the number of persons who move from the platform 1 as the departure place to a platform 2 as the destination between a time 7:01 and a time 7:02 is thirty. This means that thirty of the passengers who get off a train 1 that arrives at the platform at the time 7:01 and departs from the platform 1 at a time 7:02 move to the platform 2 as the destination.

[0037]

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the spatial information

220 recorded in the spatial information database 112. The spatial information 220 is data for recording information on a structure and equipment of the station and is created based on the structure of the station in advance. In the present embodiment, the spatial information

220 is expressed with the use of lattice spaces obtained by dividing a space into a lattice shape, which is used in pedestrian simulation using a known cellular automaton.

[0038]

The lattice spaces are configured by unit lattices such as passage lattices, wall lattices, stairs lattices, ticket gate machine lattices, gateways, and ride position lattices, depending on the subspace belonging to the lattice spaces. For example, information on permission and prohibition of passage, a passable speed, a passable direction, a distance cost required for passage, and information on whether pedestrians can come into and out of the entire space, or not, are allocated to each lattice as an attribute of the lattice. In the example of FIG. 3, the structure of the station with one ticket gate and two platforms is expressed as a space using unit lattices.

[0039]

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the subspace information

230 recorded in the spatial information database 112. The subspace information 230 is data of the subspace that is a unit for detecting the countermeasure required congestion. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a range of each subspace included in the subspace information 230 of

FIG. 4 on a plane surface.

[0040]

First, the subspace will be described with reference to FIGS.

and 5. FIG. 4 shows the subspace information 230 created based on the spatial information of FIG. 3. The subspaces are individual spaces created by separating a space at a point where a traffic regulation and a direction restriction can be implemented and a point where a route is branched. For example, ranges A001 to A004 shown in FIG. 5 are subspaces, and are separated by points A011 to A014 (stairs) and A021 (ticket gate machine) . The subspace may be obtained by setting a range that can be used as a unit for detecting the countermeasure required congestion, and may be set finely more than the examples of FIGS. 4 and 5. For example, the subspace name platform 1 may be divided into the multiple subspaces and the range of the subspaces may be set in finer units .

[0041]

Next, the contents of the subspace information 230 shown in FIG.

will be described. The subspace names, ranges, subspace priorities, connection points, and connection subspace names are recorded in the subspace information 230 in association with each other.

[0042]

The subspace name is a name of the subspace, and one subspace corresponds to one subspace name by one to one.

[0043]

The range indicates a range of the subspace, and in the present embodiment, the range is the assembly of lattices configuring the subspaces. For example, the range is represented as an array of lattices configuring the subspaces. The respective ranges illustrated in FIG. 4 correspond to the ranges A001 to A004 shown in FIG. 5.

[0044]

The subspace priority is an evaluation value set in advance for use in determining the priority for implementing the countermeasure when the countermeasure required congestion has been detected for the multiple subspaces. For example, the congestion on the platform is likely to incur a dangerous accident such as falling to a railway, as compared to a concourse. For that reason, the congestion on the platform is set to be higher in the priority than the congestion in the concourse.

[0045]

The connection point is a point at which the subspace is connected to another subspace. For example, the platform 1 (point A001) is connected to another subspace with a stairs 1 (point A011) and a stairs (point A012) as connection points. The connection point, like the subspace, is the assembly of lattices and is represented as an array of lattices representing the connection points, for example.

[0046]

The connection subspace name records the subspace name of another subspace to which one subspace is connected through the connection point

For example, the platform 1 (range A001) is connected to an inside of a concourse ticket gate (range A003) through the stairs 1 (point A Oil) and the stairs 2 (point A012).

[0047]

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the congestion prediction result 240 calculated by simulation. The congestion prediction result

240 is data configured by prediction values of time series of the congestion indexes of the respective subspaces. For example, the congestion index can be expressed by the number of people staying in the subspace, a crowded density, or a flow line density.

[0048]

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the countermeasure candidate 250 recorded in the countermeasure candidate database 113.

The countermeasure candidate 250 is data representing the implementable countermeasure against the congestion for each space such as a station.

The target subspace name indicates the subspace that is subjected to the countermeasure. The target point is a point corresponding to the connection point of the subspace information 230 . A state of the target spot is changed, thereby being capable of implementing the countermeasure against congestion. The countermeasure state represents a state in which the target point can be taken. The state in which the target point can be taken includes both of a state taken by the machine such as a traffic direction of the ticket gate machine and a state generated by allowing the station staff to perform a traffic control such as a traffic direction regulation of the stairs.

[0049]

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the countermeasure required congestion information 270 which is data to be output when the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 detects the countermeasure required congestion. The detection subspace name is a name of the subspace detected when the countermeasure required congestion occurs. The predicted congestion time is a time zone during which the countermeasure required congestion occurs. The maximum congestion is a maximum value of the congestion index in the predicted countermeasure required congestion.

[0050]

FIG. 9 is data of the countermeasure candidates combining the countermeasure candidate 250 for the countermeasure required congestion with the countermeasure start time. FIG. 9 exemplifies a case in which the subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected is the platform 1. The data includes a countermeasure start time which is a time at which the countermeasure candidate is to be executed at the latest in order that the congestion index value obtained by the simulation under the condition that the countermeasure of the countermeasure candidate 250 is applied does not exceed the threshold.

[0051]

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 which is data obtained by evaluating the priority with which the countermeasure is to be implemented against the countermeasure required congestion and adding the final countermeasure start time and the countermeasure priority evaluation value.

[0052]

The countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 is data obtained by evaluating the priority with which the countermeasure is to be implemented against the countermeasure required congestion and adding the final countermeasure start time and the countermeasure priority evaluation value. The final countermeasure start time represents the latest countermeasure start time among the countermeasures in which the detected subspace names are target subspace names. The countermeasure priority evaluation value is an evaluation value calculated by the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 based on the predicted congestion time, the maximum congestion, and the final countermeasure start time. Meanwhile, in the present embodiment, the maximum configuration is used for evaluation of the countermeasure required congestion, but the present invention is not limited to the above configuration. The maximum congestion may be replaced with another index indicative of the degree of congestion such as a mean value of the congestion indexes.

[0053]

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the countermeasure evaluation result

300 which is data obtained by adding a congestion relaxation evaluation value and a proposed countermeasure evaluation value to the proposed countermeasure 280 shown in FIG. 9. The congestion relaxation evaluation value is an evaluation value of a congestion relaxation effect when the proposed countermeasure 280 is implemented, which is calculated according to a difference between the congestion index value calculated by the simulation under the condition applying the proposed countermeasure 280 and a threshold. The proposed countermeasure evaluation value is an evaluation value of the proposed countermeasure

280 which is calculated according to a length of an extension time from the current time to the countermeasure start time and the congestion relaxation evaluation value.

<Processing>

[0054]

Next, a processing example of the respective units will be described.

[0055]

First, a processing example of the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 will be described with reference to FIGS. 12 and

13.

[0056]

FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a processing example of the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140. FIG. 12 is a graph showing a first congestion prediction result indicating a time transition of a congestion index in a subspace in which a countermeasure required congestion is detected, and a second congestion prediction result indicating a time transition of the congestion index which is calculated by simulation, for example, under a condition applying the countermeasure candidate as early as possible, at an arbitrary time within a range from the current time to a time when the countermeasure required congestion is detected, as a temporary proposed countermeasure .

[0057]

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing a processing example of the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140. Hereinafter, a processing example of the countermeasure start time calculation unit

140 will be described with reference to each step of FIG. 13.

[0058]

S101: First, paying attention to the countermeasure required congestion detected by the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130, the congestion prediction result of the subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected among the congestion prediction results in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected is set as the first congestion prediction result, and the first congestion prediction result and the countermeasure candidate are input. The countermeasure required congestion to which attention is paid is a target whose countermeasure start time of the countermeasure candidate is calculated.

[0059]

S102: The arbitrary time within the range from the current time to the time when the countermeasure required congestion is detected is set as a temporary countermeasure start time, and the temporary countermeasure start time is added to the countermeasure candidate, to thereby create the temporary proposed countermeasure.

[0060]

S103: The temporary proposed countermeasure is input to the condition change unit 150, to thereby cause the simulation unit 120 to calculate the congestion index when applying the temporary proposed countermeasure. The congestion prediction result of the subspace to be targeted in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected calculated by the simulation unit 120 is set as the second congestion prediction result.

[0061]

S104: A maximum value of the congestion index is calculated for each time range in which the congestion index exceeds the threshold with reference to the first congestion prediction result, and a time at which the maximum value is taken is set as a time t.

[0062]

S105: The first congestion prediction result is smoothed. The smoothing can be performed by using, for example, a moving average method.

[0063]

S106: An extreme value immediately before the maximum value of the smoothed first congestion prediction result is calculated, and a time at which the extreme value is taken is set as a time s.

[0064]

S107: The maximum value and the minimum value of the congestion index of the second congestion prediction result between the time s and the time t are calculated, and a slope of a straight line passing through the maximum value and the minimum value is calculated.

[0065]

S108: A straight line having the slope calculated in S107 and congestion index coinciding with the threshold at the time t is calculated.

[0066]

S109: A point at which the straight line calculated in S108 and a curve of the first congestion prediction result intersect with each other before the time t is calculated, and a time of that point is set as the countermeasure start time.

[0067]

As described above, in the process of calculating the countermeasure start time, the countermeasure start time can be calculated with less calculation amount than a process of repeating the simulation while moving a time and searching the countermeasure start time which is delayed as much as possible.

[0068]

Next, a processing example of the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 will be described with reference to a flowchart of FIG. 14.

[0069]

S201: Information on the countermeasure required congestion detected by the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130, the congestion prediction result including the countermeasure required congestion, and the proposed countermeasure applicable to the subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected is input.

In this example, the countermeasure required congestion to which the information is input is a target whose countermeasure priority is evaluated. In the countermeasure required congestion, a time from a time when the congestion index exceeds the threshold to a time when the congestion index becomes equal to or less than the threshold is set as the predicted congestion time.

[0070]

S202: The subspace priority of the subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected is acquired from the spatial information database 112.

[0071]

S203: A difference between the maximum value of the congestion index and the threshold in the countermeasure required congestion is calculated.

[0072]

Step S204: All of the countermeasures applicable to the subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected are extracted. The proposed countermeasure includes the countermeasure candidate and the countermeasure start time.

[0073]

S205: The latest time among the countermeasure start times of all the extracted countermeasures is set as the final countermeasure start time.

[0074]

S206: In the countermeasure required congestion, the length of the predicted congestion time, the subspace priority extracted in S202, the difference between the maximum congestion and the threshold which is calculated in S203, and the final countermeasure start time calculated in S206 are set as evaluation target values. A countermeasure required congestion countermeasure priority evaluation value is calculated by multiplying the respective evaluation target values by a predetermined arbitrary weight and adding those multiplied valuation target values together. Meanwhile, the difference between the maximum congestion and the threshold is an example of the index indicating the degree of congestion, and may be replaced by another index representing the degree of congestion.

[0075]

S207: The countermeasure required congestion information 270, the final countermeasure start time, and the countermeasure priority evaluation value are output as the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290. In this example, as a comprehensive evaluation of the priority of the countermeasure implementation of the countermeasure required congestions, the countermeasure required congestion countermeasure priority is calculated and displayed, but the present invention is not limited to the above example. As another example, the predicted congestion time length, the subspace priority extracted in S202, the difference between the maximum congestion and the threshold calculated in S203, and some or all of the final countermeasure start times calculated in S206 may be individually presented to the observer so as to determine which countermeasure required congestion is to be prioritized.

[0076]

Next, a processing example of the proposed countermeasure evaluation unit 170 will be described with reference to a flowchart of FIG. 15.

[0077]

S301: The congestion prediction result indicating the time transition of the congestion index, which is calculated by the simulation by the simulation unit 120 under the condition that the proposed countermeasure is applied to the countermeasure required congestion is input.

[0078]

S302: The time difference between the countermeasure start time of the applied proposed countermeasure and the current time is set as the countermeasure extension time.

[0079]

S303: The difference between the maximum value of the congestion index value and the threshold, which is calculated by the simulation under the condition in which the countermeasure candidate is implemented from the arbitrary time between the current time and the detection of the countermeasure required congestion is calculated, and the calculation result is set as the congestion relaxation evaluation value . The difference between the maximum value of the congestion index value and the threshold is an example of an index indicating the degree of improvement of the congestion index value and may be replaced by another index representing the degree of congestion improvement.

[0080]

S304: The countermeasure extension time and the congestion relaxation evaluation value of the proposed countermeasure are set as the evaluation target values, and a proposed countermeasure evaluation value of the proposed countermeasure is calculated by multiplying the respective evaluation target values by an arbitrary weight, and adding those multiplied target values together.

[0081]

S305: The congestion relaxation evaluation value and the proposed countermeasure evaluation value are associated with the proposed countermeasure and set as the proposed countermeasure evaluation result, and the proposed countermeasure evaluation result is output. In this example, the proposed countermeasure evaluation value is calculated and displayed as a comprehensive evaluation on the proposed countermeasure, but the present invention is not limited to the above example. As another example, both or one of the countermeasure extension time and the congestion relaxation evaluation value may be presented to the observer, individually, and the observer may determine which proposed countermeasure is employed.

[0082]

Next, a processing example of the output unit 180 will be described with reference to FIGS. 16 and 17.

[0083]

FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing a processing example of the output unit 180. FIG. 17 is a diagram showing an example of screen display by the output unit 180.

[0084]

S401: The countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 and the proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300 are input.

[0085]

S402: The countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 is displayed on a screen of a computer terminal held by an observer (for example, station staff) who manages the congestion state of the station.

The countermeasure required congestions included in the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 are prioritized and displayed in descending order of the countermeasure priority evaluation value.

[0086]

For example, as shown in a countermeasure priority evaluation result display screen 310 of FIG. 17, the detected subspace name, the predicted congestion time, and the countermeasure priority evaluation value are displayed for the countermeasure required congestion of the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290. As shown in the example of FIG. 17, the predicted congestion time for each subspace is set as a horizontal bar graph, and a magnitude of the countermeasure priority evaluation value can be represented by a color of a stripe display indicating the predicted congestion time or a shading of the color.

This makes it possible to easily grasp the prioritization of the countermeasure priorities by the color or the shading of the color.

The countermeasure priority evaluation result display screen 310 shows the platform 1, the platform 2, and a concourse ticket gate inside as the subspaces in which the countermeasure required congestion is generated. The time when the countermeasure required congestion occurs in each subspace is hatched in the horizontal bar graph. The magnitude of the countermeasure priority of each countermeasure required congestion is expressed by the shading of hatching, and a darker color means that the countermeasure priority is higher.

[0087]

Alternatively, as another example, the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 may be displayed in a table format as shown in

FIG. 10. In that case, the prioritization can be expressed by sorting based on the countermeasure priority evaluation value. As another example of sorting, the countermeasure required congestion may be sorted based on the maximum congestion (the maximum value of the congestion index) or the final countermeasure start time.

Alternatively, the evaluation values used for sorting may be changed by the observer's operation.

[0088]

S403: The observer views the display of the countermeasure priority evaluation result and selects the countermeasure required congestion to be subjected to the countermeasure. For example, on the countermeasure priority evaluation result display screen 310 shown in

FIG. 17, the observer selects a display 311 that displays the countermeasure required congestion of the platform 1.

[0089]

S404: The proposed countermeasure evaluation result corresponding to the selected countermeasure required congestion is displayed on the computer terminal held by the observer. If multiple proposed countermeasures are applied to the countermeasure required congestion, the proposed countermeasure evaluation results of the multiple proposed countermeasures may be prioritized and displayed in descending order of the proposed countermeasure evaluation values. In another example, the prioritization may be performed based on the countermeasure start time or the congestion relaxation evaluation value

Alternatively, the evaluation values used for prioritization may be changed by the observer's operation.

[0090]

Further, a display may be made so as to distinguish whether or not the maximum congestion of the proposed countermeasure evaluation result exceeds a threshold for detecting the countermeasure required congestion. For example, the display of the proposed countermeasure evaluation result of the countermeasure required congestion may be different according to whether the maximum congestion exceeds the threshold or not. For example, the display may be distinguished depending on, for example, the display color, the presence or absence of icons, or the type of the icons. Alternatively, only the proposed countermeasures in which the maximum congestion of the proposed countermeasure evaluation result does not exceed the threshold may be displayed.

[0091]

In the display of the proposed countermeasure evaluation result, for example, as with a proposed countermeasure evaluation result display screen 320 shown in FIG. 17, the proposed countermeasures corresponding to the countermeasure required congestion selected in the countermeasure priority evaluation result display screen 310 are listed, and prioritized and displayed based on the proposed countermeasure evaluation value. The proposed countermeasure evaluation result display screen 320 of FIG. 17 shows, as the proposed countermeasure against the countermeasure required congestion of the platform 1 from 8:50 to 9:20, a proposed countermeasure that limits the state to one way only in a direction exiting the stairs 1, a proposed countermeasure that limits the state to one way only in a direction exiting the stairs 2, and a proposed countermeasure that limits the state to one way only in a direction exiting the ticket gate machine

1. Those proposed countermeasures are prioritized by the proposed countermeasure evaluation value and displayed in the priority order.

[0092]

S405: The observer views the proposed countermeasure evaluation results, and selects the proposed countermeasure to be executed. For example, the observer selects a record 321 prioritized to the highest level from the proposed countermeasure evaluation result display screen

320 shown in FIG. 17, and selects the proposed countermeasure evaluation result to be implemented.

[0093]

S406: The observer selects a person in charge of implementing the selected proposed countermeasure (for example, a station staff).

Alternatively, the observer may select a signage for displaying guidance information of the passengers. For example, as indicated in a person-in-charge setting screen 330 shown in FIG. 17, the observer displays a schedule of the person in charge and selects a time zone

331, to thereby select the person in charge. Candidates who implement the proposed countermeasure are a station staff A and a station staff

B. However, it can be understood that a fact that the station staff

B has another work during a time when the countermeasure is implemented is displayed by hatching, and the station staff B cannot be in charge of implementing the proposed countermeasure.

[0094]

S407: The contents of the proposed countermeasure and an instruction of the implementation are notified a terminal held by the station staff who implements the proposed countermeasure of.

Alternatively, guidance information of the passengers may be displayed on the selected signage. For example, the contents of the countermeasure to be implemented are displayed as shown in a proposed countermeasure implementation content instruction screen 340. The proposed countermeasure implementation content instruction screen 340 in FIG. 17 displays that a connection point which is a target of the proposed countermeasure to be implemented is the stairs 1, a time at which the countermeasure is implemented is 8:30 to 9:20, and the contents of the countermeasure is one way limited to only the exit direction.

[0095]

Next, a processing example of the entire system will be described with reference to a flowchart of FIG. 18.

[0096]

S1001: The congestion predicting system reads the predicted number of people information 210 after the current time from the predicted number of people information database 111, reads the spatial information 220 and the subspace information 230 from the spatial information database 112, and inputs the read information to the simulation unit 120.

[0097]

S1002: Next, the congestion predicting system predicts the congestion state in the simulation unit 120 and outputs the congestion prediction result.

[0098]

S1003: Further, the congestion predicting system inputs the congestion prediction result to the countermeasure proposed congestion detection unit 130 to determine whether the congestion that requires the countermeasure occurs. If the occurrence of the congestion that requires the countermeasure is detected, the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 outputs the countermeasure required congestion information 270 and proceeds to S1004. If the occurrence of the congestion that requires the countermeasure is not detected, the congestion predicting system returns to S1001 and repeats data reading and congestion prediction.

[0099]

S1004: The congestion predicting system extracts the countermeasure candidate 250 whose target subspace is a subspace in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected in the countermeasure required congestion information 270 from the countermeasure candidate database 113.

[0100]

S1005: Further, the congestion predicting system calculates the countermeasure start time for each of the countermeasure candidates

250 extracted in 1005, with the use of the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140.

[0101]

S1006: The congestion predicting system creates the proposed countermeasure 280 by combining the countermeasure candidate and the congestion start time.

[0102]

S1007 : Next, the congestion predicting system inputs the proposed countermeasure 280 to the condition change unit 150, and creates the predicted number of people information 210 and the spatial information

220 on the condition that the proposed countermeasure 280 is applied to the countermeasure required congestion.

[0103]

S1008: Further, the congestion predicting system inputs the predicted number of people information 210 and the spatial information

220 to which the proposed countermeasure 280 is applied to the simulation unit 120, predicts the congestion situation when the proposed countermeasure is applied, and outputs the prediction result as the congestion prediction result 240.

[0104]

S1009: The congestion predicting system inputs the congestion prediction result 240 to the proposed countermeasure evaluation unit

170, and calculates the proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300.

[0105]

S1010: Subsequently, the congestion predicting system determines whether all of the proposed countermeasures have been evaluated or not.

If the evaluation of all the proposed countermeasures has not been completed, the process returns to S1008 to perform the processes of predicting and evaluating another proposed countermeasure. On the other hand, when the evaluation of all the proposed countermeasures is completed, the congestion predicting system proceeds to S1011.

[0106]

S1011: The congestion predicting system inputs the countermeasure required congestion, the congestion prediction result in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected, and the proposed countermeasure against the countermeasure required congestion to the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160. Then, the congestion predicting system calculates the final countermeasure start time and the countermeasure priority evaluation value, and outputs the countermeasure priority evaluation value 290.

[0107]

S1012: The congestion predicting system inputs the countermeasure priority evaluation result 290 and the proposed countermeasure evaluation result 300 to the output unit 180, and displays the input results on the screen.

[0108]

S1013: The congestion predicting system determines whether or not the current time has reached an end time designated by the observer or a departure time of the last train. If the current time has not reached those times, the congestion predicting system returns to S1001.

If the current time has reached those times, the congestion predicting system completes the process.

<Advantages>

[0109]

According to the congestion predicting system of the present embodiment, the congestion is predicted by the simulation unit 120 based on the sequentially added predicted number of people information, and it is determined whether or not the output congestion prediction result includes the congestion requiring the countermeasure. If the congestion that requires the countermeasure is detected, the detected congestion requiring the countermeasure can be evaluated according to the congestion occurrence time, the degree of congestion, and an occurrence place, prioritized by the evaluation values, and provided to the observer.

[0110]

If the occurrence of congestion is detected, the proposed countermeasure that can be expected to reduce congestion can be prioritized in consideration of the congestion relaxation effect and provided to the observer, and the observer can select the proposed countermeasure to be implemented from the provided proposed countermeasures. As a result, the observer can easily determine an appropriate proposed countermeasure for the congestion in a timely manner .

[0111]

An actual congestion situation or a predicted future congestion situation may suddenly change depending on a train service situation at a railway station, but according to the present embodiment, the observer can determine an appropriate proposed countermeasure against the congestion in a timely manner.

[0112]

Further, according to the present embodiment, when multiple countermeasure required congestions are detected, the countermeasure start time at which the proposed countermeasure is to be implemented at the latest is calculated for the purpose of eliminating the countermeasure required congestion, to thereby facilitate the determination of the priority order to take the countermeasure. This makes it possible to assist the observer in determining the priority to take the countermeasure from the congestions requiring the countermeasure. For example, when alarms informing of the congestion of multiple spaces and multiple times are output, it becomes easy to determine which countermeasure is to be prioritized when restrictions are imposed on the number of observers and the countermeasures against all of the alarms cannot be implemented at the same time.

[0113]

In addition, when the congestion that requires the countermeasure is detected, the proposed countermeasures for the congestion that can be expected to alleviate the congestion to or below the threshold, which is a criterion for the congestion that requires the countermeasure, are created. The proposed countermeasures can be evaluated according to the amount of congestion relaxation and the time at which the countermeasure is to be implemented, prioritized by the evaluation values, and provided to the observer . The observer can easily implement the appropriate proposed countermeasure by selecting any proposed countermeasure from the provided proposed countermeasures.

[0114]

A part or the whole of the present embodiment described above can also be organized as follows.

[0115]

The congestion predicting system includes the countermeasure candidate database 113, the simulation unit 120, the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130, and the output unit 180. The countermeasure candidate database 113 stores the information on the countermeasure candidates that are implementable on the congestion of a predetermined space (subspace). The simulation unit 120 calculates the transition of the congestion index value at the future time for the predetermined space (subspace). When the congestion index value exceeds the predetermined threshold, the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 detects the countermeasure required congestion that is a congestion which requires the countermeasure and specified by the space and the time. The output unit 180 outputs the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including whether or not the congestion index value calculated by simulation under the condition applying the countermeasure candidate applicable to the space in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected exceeds the threshold.

[0116]

According to the present embodiment, since the countermeasure candidate applicable to the congestion and the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate are output together with the space and the time where the countermeasure required congestion occurs, it is easy to determine an appropriate countermeasure for the countermeasure required congestion in a timely manner.

[0117]

In addition, the proposed countermeasure evaluation unit 170 calculates an improvement degree that is the degree of improvement of the congestion index value, which is calculated by the simulation under the condition where the countermeasure candidate is implemented from an arbitrary time between the current time and the detection of the countermeasure required congestion for the countermeasure required congestion, for example, a difference between the maximum value of the congestion index value and the threshold. The output unit 180 outputs the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including the calculated difference.

[0118]

As a result, since the difference between the maximum value of the congestion index value and the threshold in the case of implementing the countermeasure candidate is used for the evaluation of the countermeasure candidate, when the countermeasure candidate is implemented, it can be evaluated to what extent of a margin the congestion index value can be improved from a state requiring the countermeasure.

[0119]

In addition, the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 can detect the multiple countermeasure required congestions, and the countermeasure priority evaluation unit 160 calculates the evaluation result for each of the multiple countermeasure required congestions. The output unit 180 ranks the countermeasure required congestions based on the evaluation result of the countermeasure required congestions and outputs the ranked countermeasure required congestions. The output unit 180 ranks the countermeasure candidates based on the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidates and outputs the ranked countermeasure candidates.

[0120]

As a result, since the countermeasure required congestions and the countermeasure candidates can be prioritized, even if the multiple countermeasure required congestions occur, and the multiple countermeasures candidates are present, it is easy to determine which countermeasure required congestion is prioritized and what countermeasure are implemented.

[0121]

In addition, the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 calculates the countermeasure start time which is a time at which the countermeasure candidate is to be executed at the latest so that the maximum value of the congestion index value calculated by simulation under the condition in which the countermeasure candidate has been implemented against the countermeasure required congestion becomes equal to or less than the threshold. The output unit 180 outputs the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including the countermeasure start time.

[0122]

As a result, since the countermeasure start time is presented as the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate, a time margin of when to implement the countermeasure candidate can be taken into consideration when determining which countermeasure candidate is to be implemented.

[0123]

In addition, the countermeasure start time calculation unit 140 sets a time at which a first curve drawn with the congestion index value calculated by simulation not applying the countermeasure candidate takes a maximum value within a time period over which the first curve exceeds the threshold as a first time, sets a time at which the first curve takes an extreme value before the first time as a second time, calculates a slope of a first straight line passing through a maximum value and a minimum value of a second curve drawn by the congestion index value calculated by simulation under a condition applying the countermeasure candidate from an arbitrary time from the current time to the detection of the countermeasure required congestion between the first time and the second time, calculates a second straight line that has the slope and takes a value of the threshold at the first time, and sets a time of an intersection existing before the first time among intersections of the second straight line and the first curve as the countermeasure start time.

[0124]

Since the countermeasure start time is calculated by approximate calculation with the use of the simulation result not applying the countermeasure candidate and the simulation result applying the countermeasure candidate, a processing load by calculation of the countermeasure start time can be reduced.

[0125]

In addition, the output unit 180 prioritizes the multiple countermeasure required congestions based on the countermeasure start time of at least one countermeasure candidate applicable to each of the multiple countermeasure required congestions to output the prioritized multiple countermeasure required congestions. The output unit 180 prioritizes the multiple countermeasure candidates applicable to the same countermeasure required congestion based on the countermeasure start times of the respective countermeasure candidates to output the prioritized multiple countermeasure candidates.

[0126]

Therefore, the time margin until the countermeasure is taken can be considered in the countermeasure required congestion and the evaluation of the countermeasure candidates.

[0127]

Further, the output unit 180 prioritizes the countermeasure required congestions detected by the countermeasure required congestion detection unit 130 and displays the prioritized countermeasure required congestions on the screen. When any countermeasure required congestion is selected, the output unit 180 prioritizes the countermeasure candidates corresponding to the selected countermeasure required congestion and displays the prioritized countermeasure candidates on the screen.

[0128]

Therefore, an operator such as an observer of the railroad station traces a hierarchy of the screen display, thereby being capable of easily selecting the countermeasure required congestion to be subjected to a countermeasure and the countermeasure.

[0129]

In addition, when the countermeasure candidate to be implemented is selected, the output unit 180 displays the countermeasure time information including the countermeasure start time of the countermeasure candidate and candidates of a countermeasure person in charge of implementing the countermeasure candidate. When a countermeasure person in charge of the implementation is selected, the output unit 180 transmits an implementation instruction of the countermeasure candidate to a terminal of the countermeasure person.

[0130]

Therefore, after the determination of a countermeasure to be implemented, the selection of a person who implements the countermeasure is supported, as a result of which the countermeasure person is easily determined.

[0131]

In addition, the output unit 180 displays the transition of the evaluation index relating to the countermeasure required congestion on the screen along a time axis so that the magnitude of the congestion index value can be discriminated. The evaluation index relating to the countermeasure required congestion includes, for example, a congestion index value, a rank order (priority) of the countermeasure required congestions, and the like.

[0132]

Therefore, since the transition of the congestion index value is displayed on the screen in a visually easily understandable manner, the future congestion situation can be easily grasped.

[0133]

The embodiments described above are illustrative examples of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention only to those embodiments. An ordinary skilled person can implement the present invention in various other modes without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

List of Reference Signs [0134]

111, predicted number of people information database; 112, spatial information database; 113, countermeasure candidate database; 120, simulation unit; 130, countermeasure required congestion detection unit; 140, countermeasure start time calculation unit; 150, condition change unit; 160, countermeasure priority evaluation unit; 170, proposed countermeasure evaluation unit; 180, output unit; 200, spatial information; 210, predicted number of people information; 220, spatial information; 230, subspace information; 240, congestion prediction result; 250, countermeasure candidate; 270, countermeasure required congestion information; 280, proposed countermeasure; 290, countermeasure priority evaluation result; 300, proposed countermeasure evaluation result; 310, countermeasure priority evaluation result display screen; 311, display; 320, proposed countermeasure evaluation result display screen; 321, record; 330, person-in-charge setting screen; 331, time zone; and 340, proposed countermeasure implementation contents instruction screen

Claims (10)

1. CLAIMS [Claim 1]

   A congestion predicting system, comprising:

   a countermeasure candidate database that stores information on countermeasure candidates executable against a congestion in a predetermined space;

   a simulation unit that calculates a transition of a congestion index value in a future time for the predetermined space;

   a countermeasure required congestion detection unit that detects a countermeasure required congestion which requires a countermeasure and is specified by a space and a time when the congestion index value exceeds a predetermined threshold; and an output unit that outputs an evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including whether or not the congestion index value calculated by a simulation under a condition applying a countermeasure candidate applicable to a space in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected exceeds the threshold.
2. [Claim 2]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 1, further comprising a proposed countermeasure evaluation unit that calculates an improvement degree which is a degree of improvement of the congestion index value calculated by the simulation under the condition in which the countermeasure candidate is implemented from an arbitrary time from a current time in the countermeasure required congestion to the detection of the countermeasure required congestion, wherein the output unit outputs the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including the improvement degree.
3. [Claim 3]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 2, wherein the countermeasure required congestion detection unit is capable of detecting a plurality of the countermeasure required congestions, the congestion predicting system further includes a countermeasure priority evaluation unit that calculates the evaluation result in each of the plurality of countermeasure required congestions, and the output unit prioritizes the countermeasure required congestions based on the evaluation result of the countermeasure required congestions to output the countermeasure required congestions, and prioritizes the countermeasure candidates based on the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidates to output the countermeasure candidates .
4. [Claim 4]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 1, further comprising a countermeasure start time calculation unit that calculates a countermeasure start time which is a time at which the countermeasure candidate is to be implemented at the latest to set a maximum value of the congestion index value calculated by simulation under the condition in which the countermeasure candidate is implemented against the countermeasure required congestion to be equal to or less than the threshold, wherein the output unit outputs the evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including the countermeasure start time.
5. [Claim 5]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 4, wherein the countermeasure start time calculation unit sets a time at which a first curve drawn with the congestion index value calculated by simulation not applying the countermeasure candidate takes a maximum value within a time period over which the first curve exceeds the threshold as a first time, sets a time at which the first curve takes an extreme value before the first time as a second time, calculates a slope of a first straight line passing through a maximum value and a minimum value of a second curve drawn by the congestion index value calculated by simulation under a condition applying the countermeasure candidate from an arbitrary time from the current time to the detection of the countermeasure required congestion between the first time and the second time, calculates a second straight line that has the slope and takes a value of the threshold at the first time, and sets a time of an intersection existing before the first time among intersections of the second straight line and the first curve as the countermeasure start time.
6. [Claim 6]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 3, wherein the output unit prioritizes a plurality of countermeasure required congestions based on a countermeasure start time of at least one countermeasure candidate applicable to the respective countermeasure required congestions to output the plurality of countermeasure required congestions, and prioritizes a plurality of countermeasure candidates applicable to the same countermeasure required congestion based on the respective countermeasure start times of the countermeasure candidates to output the plurality of countermeasure candidates.
7. [Claim 7]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 3, wherein the output unit prioritizes the countermeasure required congestions detected by the countermeasure required congestion detection unit to display the prioritized countermeasure required congestions on a screen, and when any countermeasure required congestion is selected, the output unit prioritizes the countermeasure candidates corresponding to the selected countermeasure required congestion to display the prioritized countermeasure candidates on the screen.
8. [Claim 8]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 1, wherein when a countermeasure candidate to be implemented is selected, the output unit displays countermeasure time information including a countermeasure start time of the countermeasure candidate and candidates of countermeasure persons in charge of implementing the selected countermeasure candidate, and when any countermeasure person in charge of implementation is selected, the output unit transmits an implementation instruction of the selected countermeasure candidate to a terminal of the selected countermeasure person.
9. [Claim 9]

   The congestion predicting system according to claim 1, wherein the output unit displays a transition of the evaluation index relating to the countermeasure required congestion on a screen along a time axis to make a magnitude of the congestion index value identifiable .
10. [Claim 10]

    A congestion predicting method comprising:

    calculating a transition of a congestion index value in a future time for a predetermined space by a simulation unit;

    detecting a countermeasure required congestion which requires a countermeasure and is specified by a space and a time when the congestion index value exceeds a predetermined threshold by a congestion required congestion detection unit;

    calculating the transition of the congestion index value of a condition applying a countermeasure candidate applicable to the space in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected by the simulation unit; and outputting an evaluation result of the countermeasure candidate including whether or not the congestion index value calculated by a simulation under a condition applying a countermeasure candidate applicable to a space in which the countermeasure required congestion is detected exceeds the threshold.