Classifications

• • G—PHYSICS
  • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
  • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
  • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
  • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Definitions

• the invention relates generally to animal production, and, more particularly, to methods and apparatus for developing financial and/or
• production information of interest to an animal producer suppliers to an animal producer and/or buyers from an animal producer.
• FIG. 1 illustrates the ingredient purchasing process typically performed by current animal
• the typical animal producing entity includes one or more purchasing
• purchasing agent will telephone outside vendors of ingredients (e.g., amino acids, antibiotics, corn, etc.) to obtain pricing information. These telephone 5 calls can occur at varying time intervals (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly, or on an as-needed basis, etc.) whose frequency is largely left to the purchasing agent's discretion.
• ingredients e.g., amino acids, antibiotics, corn, etc.
• the pricing information developed by the purchasing information is typically recorded in some fashion.
• the animal production system typically
• ingredient typically the spot price for delivery as soon as possible.
• spot price for delivery as soon as possible.
• the animal production system also includes two other databases of
• the nutrient profile database is typically informally developed by
• the nutritionist based upon information he/she culls from various sources of information concerning average ingredient compositions. For example, if the animal production system has fed com in the past, the nutrient profile database will typically include an entry for com which reflects the typically nutritional composition of that ingredient in percentages (e.g., 3% fat, 2% protein, etc.). Unfortunately, this nutrient database is typically less scientific than it could be
• the nutritionist may be permitted to adjust the data in the nutrient profile to allow for the variances between the average ingredient and the ingredient actually received. This flexibility is, however,
• the nutrient requirements database is also usually informally
• the nutritionist typically includes entries for each type of animal grown by the animal producer (e.g., chicken, cow, etc.) and
• the nutrition profile database the nutrition requirements database is infrequently updated, often fails to reflect the most recent data, and frequently uses "average" data that inaccurately corresponds to the actual animals being
• the nutritionist may have the ability to adjust the nutrition requirements data based on his/her experience, but again,
• the least cost formulation program accesses the data in the database
• the ingredients identified in the ration reports are selected based on cost and nutrition requirements.
• the nutritionist will typically review the ration reports developed by the least cost formulation program, adjust them if he/she thinks it appropriate, and forward the finalized reports to the purchasing agent.
• the purchasing agent will then place purchase orders with outside vendors for the desired ingredients based upon the ration reports and upon inventory and pipeline reports indicating ingredients on hand and ingredients
• the least cost formulation program will optimize based on prices that no longer prevail in the actual marketplace and, thus, the ration reports may not actually reflect the lowest cost combination of ingredients by the time the purchasing agent places the orders. If such is the case, the animal producer purchasing the ingredients may
• FIG. 1 is a schematic illustration of a prior art animal producer system.
• FIG. 2 is a schematic illustration of an exemplary system constructed in accordance with the teachings of the instant invention.
• FIG. 3 is a chart illustrating exemplary quality trait data for example
• FIG. 4 is a chart illustrating exemplary nutritional requirement and performance characteristic data for example animals.
• FIG. 5 is a more detailed schematic illustration of portions of FIG. 2.
• FIG. 6 is a more detailed view of FIG 5.
• FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for
• FIGS. 8a-8b are flowcharts illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the production planner of FIG. 5.
• FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for
• FIG. 10 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for
• FIGS. 11 A- 1 IB are flowcharts illustrating an exemplary program for
• FIG. 12 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the selling plan controller of FIG. 5.
• FIG. 13 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the process bid controller of the selling plan controller of FIG. 5.
• FIG. 14 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the process offer controller of the selling plan controller of FIG.
• FIG. 15 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the buying plan controller of FIG. 5.
• FIG. 16 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the process bid controller of the buying plan controller of FIG.
• FIG. 17 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the process offer controller of the buying plan controller of FIG. 5.
• FIGS. 18A-18C are flowcharts illustrating an exemplary program for 0 implementing the nutrition planner of FIG. 6.
• FIG. 19 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for
• FIG. 20 is a flowchart illustrating an exemplary program for
• FIGS. 21A-21B are flowcharts illustrating an exemplary program for implementing the market monitor of FIG. 5.
• FIGS. 22A-22B are flowcharts illustrating an exemplary program for developing economic information across a plurality of animal producers.
• FIG. 2 An exemplary system constructed in accordance with the teachings of the invention is shown generally in FIG. 2. Although the system of FIG. 2 employs the Internet as its wide area computer network for communicating
• an animal producer 8 may optionally include one or more initial meat processing facilities (e.g., kill plants) and/or one or more final meat processing facilities (e.g., a sausage making facility or a fish breeding facility).
• initial meat processing facilities e.g., kill plants
• final meat processing facilities e.g., a sausage making facility or a fish breeding facility
• different type of livestock refers to different breeds, different species, different variants and/or different genotypes of
• modified livestock refers to livestock which has been changed from its naturally occurring condition through either selective breeding, transgenetic modification or both.
• engineered and/or quality bred com might have a higher protein content (i.e.,
• ingredient suppliers refers to any business that sells a product that is input to an animal production system to produce an animal.
• Such improved livestock can be produced, for example, by breeding or by genetically engineering animals.
• a properly nourished, genetically engineered chicken might produce more breast meat than a properly nourished, non-engineered chicken.
• animal stock providers Companies which produce livestock (improved strains or otherwise) are referred to herein as "animal stock providers" 4.
• animal stock providers 4 who sell enhanced strains of livestock have an incentive to provide
• animal producers 8 e.g., ranchers and farmers
• information about the animals they sell For example, an animal stock provider 4 must convince the
• the nutritionist of the animal producer 8 may or may not promptly input this information into a computer
• each ingredient supplier 2 that sells enhanced crops must convince its potential customers that its enhanced crop(s) offer advantages over the crop(s) of its competitors. As mentioned above, these advantages can lie in the nutritional content of the enhanced crop
• producer 8 may or may not enter this data into their least cost formulation
• Such non-nutrient attributes could include:
• the Internet has provided a means to deliver data and information between entities that far su ⁇ asses traditional channels of information delivery. In theory, therefore, the Internet has provided an improved vehicle for ingredient suppliers 2 and animal stock providers 4 to deliver information to
• the Internet provides a channel for communication, it does not, in and of itself, provide an engine for ensuring the right people correspond or for ensuring information is promptly entered into the nutritionists' least cost formulation program. Nor does it provide any mechanism for verifying that the information provided to animal producers 8 by ingredient suppliers 2 and animal stock providers 4 is accurate.
• the disclosed system proposes the utilization of the Internet to deliver information to animal
• the third party ingredient registration service 14 is a
• the ingredient registration service 14 also performs a data verification function by testing or
• samples of the products to be listed would be transferred from the subject ingredient supplier 2 or animal stock provider 4 to the ingredient registration service 14 or to other third party testing agencies for testing on a periodic basis to ensure the data listed by the ingredient registration service 14 remains accurate.
• the data stored and placed on-line by the ingredient registration service 14 preferably includes: a) quality trait data indicative of at least the nutritional specifications (e.g., it could also include non-nutrient
• attributes such as, for example, mycotoxin level, pigments, enzymes, etc.
• animal nutrition requirements data indicative of the nutrition requirements of animals associated with one or more animal stock providers 4;
• a performance characteristic e.g.,
• FIG. 3 An example chart reflecting exemplary quality trait data for an ingredient is shown in FIG. 3.
• the ingredient registration service 14 can be implemented in many ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention, in the illustrated system, the service 14 is implemented by one or more servers coupled to the Internet. As schematically illustrated in FIG. 2, the server of the ingredient registration service 14 is programmed to include a database population module 16, an access controller 18 and a revenue module 20. As will be explained in further detail below, the database population module 16 manages the data stored in the database and cooperates with the access controller 18 to deliver data to third parties (e.g., animal producers 8)
• third parties e.g., animal producers 8
• the access controller 18 limits access to the database to persons registered with the service 14.
• This security control is preferably implemented on at least two levels. Persons with the lowest level
• the first level of security clearance is included to control access to the
• the ingredient registration service 14 includes a large
• the ingredient registration service 14 all users of the on-line data are assigned a user registration code (which may optionally be stored on the user's personal computer as a cookie) and are asked to provide certain profile data concerning their business (e.g.,
• the user identification code is used to access the user's profile data (which is preferably stored at the registration service 14 but could alternatively be stored on the user's personal
• the data stored in the database e.g., the data must be classified in groups and tagged accordingly, the ultimate information provider such as ingredient
• the entire database can be substantial, it is preferable to limit the amount of data downloads as much as possible while maintaining data currency on the local storage device 22.
• the data in the database is preferably time stamped and a "last download date" is saved in association with each user identification code so that, when a user logs onto the ingredient registration service 14, only new and/or modified data which is relevant to that particular user and which has been placed on-line at a time occurring after the last download performed by
• the ingredient registration service 14 is programmed to synchronize the user's data with the current data in the database by downloading all relevant changes to the user. Of course, if the user 8 requests a complete download, the service 14 will accommodate him her.
• the user's personal computer can be programmed to automatically
• the ingredient registration service 14 can be programmed to function as a "push" type engine which automatically delivers data updates to the users 8 without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.
• the ingredient registration service 14 is also
• the revenue module 20 is programmed to charge fees to users utilizing the service 14. For example, the revenue
• module 20 is preferably implemented to charge a fee to each ingredient provider 2 and/or animal stock provider 4 for storing the data associated with their product (e.g., ingredient, antibiotic, animal, etc.); a fee to each ingredient provider 2 and animal stock provider 4 for downloading a portion of their data to a user such as an animal producer 8; a fee to an advertiser, and a fee to users (e.g., animal producers 8) for downloading data from the service 14.
• the fees can be calculated in many ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention. For example, the fees can be levied on a data size basis, a
• a party can also equivalently be charged to an agent of a party without
• the animal producer's computer is programmed to receive an input indicative of an objective to optimize.
• objectives that an animal producer 8 might select include: a) maximizing profits, b) maximizing production, c) maximizing use of ingredients on hand; d) minimizing use of predefined ingredients (e.g., ingredients having a purchase price above $100
• the animal producer's computer selects an animal from the local nutrition requirements database and develops a matrix relating candidate ingredients to the nutritional and, possibly, the non- nutritional requirements of the selected animal by consulting the local ingredient database.
• the computer of the animal producer 8 is coupled to the Internet and is programmed to contact one or more on-line exchanges 26 to ascertain realtime pricing information for the ingredients (or nutritional rations as explained
• This pricing information can include prices for future points in time (i.e., not just spot prices), which allows the system to optimize relevant decisions for a future time period (i.e., not just the current time period). Another animal will then be selected and the ingredient (ration) identification and pricing process will be repeated until all
• the animal producer computer 8 is preferably
• production constraint databases containing data indicative of: (a) physical production constraints associated with the animal producer (e.g., bam capacity, etc.); (b) physical production constraints of one or more feed processing facilities (e.g., can only process 10,000 chickens in July); (c) current sales commitments associated with the animal producer (e.g., 10,000 chickens by July 1); and (d) current purchase
• commitments associated with the animal producer e.g., 1,000 tons of com under contract and to be delivered to the animal producer July 15.
• some of these production constraints can vary as a function of time.
• the stored data reflects this time dependence.
• the production constraint data can be manually entered by the animal producer 8 or can be electronically downloaded via a computer network from an on-site computer at, for example, a meat processing facility (e.g., capacity data such
• the animal producer 8 is programmed to request this production constraint data
• the plan is output to a nutritionist and/or other business
• the computer 8 is preferably
• the computer 8 should be able to execute
• the computer of the animal producer 8 is preferably
• the animal producer computer 8 attempts to minimize costs an ⁇ Vor maximize
• the determination of the advisability of changing contractual positions is based on, for example, selling price, nutritional content and/or delivery costs.
• the animal producer With respect to the nutritional content inquiry, the animal producer
• computer 8 is also preferably programmed to evaluate whether a market change with respect to one or more ingredients (e.g., a feed such as com) occurring after a contract under a first livestock production plan has been executed for such ingredient(s) is sufficient to make a different combination of one or more ingredients (e.g., a feed such as com) occurring after a contract under a first livestock production plan has been executed for such ingredient(s) is sufficient to make a different combination of
• ingredients a lower cost mechanism to provide the same nutrition rations as
• the animal producer computer 8 is preferably programmed to
• Each of these ingredients has a nutritional profile comprising a plurality of nutrients (usually reflected on a percentage basis such as 3% protein, 2% oil, 5% amino acids, etc.).
• the nutritionist is less concerned which ingredients he/she is feeding the livestock, than that the nutrient values of the ingredients fed meet the nutritional requirements of the animals.
• This rations exchange 28 (schematically illustrated in FIGS. 5-6) will function like current market
• the buyer is less interested in the delivery vehicle (e.g., com or soy beans) than ensuring the nutrient profile he or she requires is met.
• the delivery vehicle e.g., com or soy beans
• the exchange 28 will post bids to sell nutrient profiles (e.g., 5% or
• the ration exchange 28 will provide an on-line market information source for ingredient providers 2 which will enable them to develop information concerning the desired nutritional content of ingredients in the marketplace. It will assist ingredient suppliers in valuing the products they offer because the rations market 28 will provide information
• Terminology and Notation a) Terminology
• Production system is used to denote the entire physical animal production system being modeled (e.g., hatcheries through further processing).
• Discretely optimized variables means those variables whose values
• Vector variables and functions are denoted by underlined lower case characters, (e.g., a).
• Multidimensional variables and functions are denoted by upper case characters, (e.g., A).
• f(x,, ..., x transport; yexcept..., y m ) is a function where the values of the variables y ,,..., y m do not change during computation of the function, but where the
• values of the variables x,, ..., x n may be changed by the function.
• the goal of optimization is to find the values of x,, ..., x n which optimize (e.g., maximize or minimize) the value of the function.
• the function may also have parameters (or variables) which are considered fixed, or constant over the
• Constrained optimization 5 constraints are placed on the parameters, or functions of the parameters. For example, equality constraint requires a function of the parameters to satisfy an equality such as
• FIGS. 5 More detailed illustrations of an apparatus 30 for developing a livestock production plan for an animal producer 8 are provided in FIGS. 5
• FIG. 6 is a more detailed view of the apparatus 30 than FIG. 5 in that it includes additional production constraint databases (e.g., an environmental waste database 32, a feed mill database 34, a food storage capacity database 36, and a kill plant database 38), and an inventory planner 40 (discussed
• the apparatus 30 preferably preferably
• Apparatus 30 also preferably includes a communication device (not shown) such as a modem for
• the apparatus 30 also includes the ingredient database 52 containing data indicative of possible ingredients and data indicative of the nutritional content of the possible ingredients, the nutrition requirements database 54 containing data indicative of possible
• non-nutritional requirements database containing data associating the possible livestock with data indicative of non-nutritional
• It also includes a production constraint database implemented by a barn database(s) 56, a bird genetics database 58, a processing plant database 60, a hatchery database 62, a current ingredient positions database 64, a current meat positions database 66, environmental waste database 32, feed mill database 34, food storage capacity database 36 and kill plant database 38.
• a barn database(s) 56 a barn database(s) 56
• a bird genetics database 58 a processing plant database 60
• a hatchery database 62 a current ingredient positions database 64
• a current meat positions database 66 environmental waste database 32
• environmental waste database 32 feed mill database 34
• food storage capacity database 36 kill plant database 38.
• these databases are resident on one or more local storage devices 22 such as a hard drive associated with the computer of the animal
• the apparatus 30 also preferably includes a market monitor 67 for
• the market monitor cooperates with the electronic selling agent 48,
• the electronic buying agent 50 and at least one of: (a) the nutrition planner 44;
• the market monitor 67, the inventory planner 40, the production planner 42, the nutrition planner 44, the optimizer 46, the selling plan controller 48 and the buying plan controller 50 are all preferably
• the production planner 42 constructs a plan for the use of the production system to satisfy production goals. Usage of resources over time is
• production planner 42 models the production system capabilities and performs
• the production planner 42 has access to the barn database 56, the bird genetics database 58, the processing plant database 60 (e.g., kill
• the production planner 42 preferably has the following inputs: Total Yield (y).
• Production system model data preferably including capability, current state, and established plans for a) feed mills (pelleting capacity, storage, production line restrictions), b) hatcheries, c) bams, d) processing plants, and e) transportation networks.
• the production planner 42 preferably outputs the production plan
• origination plant including: origination plant, destination plant, quantities and types, and
• ba s Distribution from ba s to initial processing plants including: origination bam, destination plant, quantities and types, and schedule.
• Feed mills preferably are not included in the control flow, under the assumption that normally feed mills are built to service a given set of bams with known capacity. In the case that this assumption is incorrect for a particular application, feed mills can easily be added to the program flow.
• the nutrition planner 44 determines a nutrition plan (over time) to
• the nutrition planner 44 is in communication with the production planner 42, the ingredient database 52, the nutrition
• the nutrition planner 42 preferably includes the following inputs: Production plan including: number of birds to produce, bird genetics, type of meat desired, and growing schedule.
• Ingredient nutrition information e.g. climate.
• the nutrition planner 42 preferably outputs a nutrition plan comprising a matrix relating candidate ingredients to nutrients and non-nutrient attributes specified in the nutrition plan.
• the optimizer 46 cooperates with the production planner 42 and the
• a business goal can be, for example, to maximize profits, to maximize facility use, etc.
• the set of outputs of the optimizer 46 is used to drive the production
• Time phased nutrition plan (includes quantities). Time phased inventory plan (takes into account cu ⁇ ent feed inventory and current livestock & consumption plan). Nutrition/ingredient mapping.
• Bid sheet (contains recommended purchasing actions to take,
• Ration plan for all periods (preferably provided for nutritionist approval/override and includes a plan for cu ⁇ ent period provided to feed mill).
• the apparatus 30 also preferably includes an electronic purchasing agent for electronically contracting to purchase ingredients identified in the livestock production plan (preferably via a computer network such as the
• the electronic purchasing agent is implemented in the example of FIG. 5 by the selling plan controller 48.
• the selling plan controller 48 executes a sales plan, and informs the rest of the system 30 when bids are
• the inputs to the selling plan controller 48 preferably include: Sales plan (sales sheet) stating what market positions to take. Meat market offers to buy (type, quantity, asking price, requested
• delivery schedule i.e., offers placed on market by other parties.
• Meat market bids (co ⁇ esponding to output offers to sell) (type,
• the selling plan controller 48 preferably has the following outputs: Bids against meat market offers to buy (type, quantity, asking price, requested delivery schedule) (i.e., bids placed by this system 30 against offers
• Meat market offers to sell (type, quantity, asking price, requested
• delivery schedule i.e., offers placed on the market by this system 30.
• Accepted bids i.e., notification to market/bidder that a bid has been accepted by this system; also recorded for other use within this system 30).
• Rejected bids i.e., notification to market/bidder that a bid has been
• Unaccepted offers i.e., offers placed by this system 30 on the market for which no acceptable bids have been received.
• processing i.e., multiple "threads", one for each offer/bid running
• client system (e.g., the animal producer 8), and responds to the queries.
• queries could be "what are all open offers for purchase of whole birds”.
• telephonically related market information may be required (or the information
• control flow diagrams may be faxed, mailed, .
• Offers and bids can be against combinations of individual products (e.g., breasts and legs combined into one offer/bid).
• the apparatus 30 also preferably includes an electronic purchasing agent for electronically contracting to buy ingredients to be used in the livestock production plan (preferably via a computer network such as the Internet).
• the electronic buying agent is implemented in the example of FIG.
• the buying plan controller 50 executes an ingredient purchase plan, and informs the rest of the system 30 when bids are
• the buying plan controller 50 preferably has the following inputs:
• Buying plan (bid sheet) stating what market positions to take. Ingredient market offers to sell (type, quantity, asking price, requested
• delivery schedule i.e., offers placed on market by other parties.
• Ingredient market bids (co ⁇ esponding to output offers to buy) (type,
• the buying plan controller 50 requires specification of the time to wait before reporting that a position is unexecutable in the market.
• the buying plan controller 50 preferably has the following outputs:
• Ingredient market offers to buy (type, quantity, asking price, requested delivery schedule) (i.e., offer placed on the market by this system 30).
• Accepted bids i.e., notification to market/bidder that a bid has been accepted by this system 30; also recorded for other use within this system 30.
• Rejected bids i.e., notification to market/bidder that a bid has been
• Unaccepted offers i.e., offers placed by this system 30 on the market for which no acceptable bids have been received.
• the market waits for queries from the "client" system (e.g., the animal producer 8), and responds to the queries.
• client e.g., the animal producer 8
• responds to the queries For example, a query could be "what are all open offers for
• Some markets mix the techniques, for example, using data push for notification of accepted/rejected bids, and query/response for all other transactions. Some markets may not be online and, thus, manual entry of telephonically related market information may be required. (Or the information may be faxed, mailed, ). For ease of illustration, the control
• Offers and bids can be against combinations of individual products
• the inventory manager 40 maintains a database or databases 64, 66 storing the current inventory position of both meat and ration ingredients, and the plan for deliveries of inventory both into and out of the system.
• the inventory manager 40 may perform inventory planning on a finer time scale than other system components (e.g., the production planner 42 or the optimizer
• the inventory manager 40 preferably has the following inputs: Feed plan (portion of production plan) including ration (ingredients) and schedule. Changes to inventory (can be manual or automatic).
• the inventory manager 40 preferably has the following outputs:
• the inventory manager 40 is optionally
• the databases 64, 66 used by the inventory manager 40 may have real time feeds (e.g., silo capacity sensors). Changes to these databases 64, 66 could trigger the inventory manager control flow.
• each quantity/function has a time parameter: x(t, ).
• initial critical variable values are entered into the apparatus either manually, from tables, or via on-line exchanges.
• empty space means that bird inventory in progress (growing) is taken into account
• the optimizer 46 sets the following initial values of variables: bird
• b M whole and/or processed or unprocessed
• delivery schedule denoted by b_
• planning window how time frame to perform planning
• the production planner 42 determines the production constraints based on the model of the production system stored in the local
• the nutrition planner 44 determines the nutrition
• ingredients from bird genetics b G , yield y, mix of meat b M , delivery schedule b., planning window w, the production plan P, nutrition models, and weather
• b nut f . G b G , y, b M , b., w, P, other Production System based parameters
• the optimizer 46 optimizes the system goal (e.g., profit) over the parameters meat sales (the vector m.), and ingredient purchases (the vector i b ) using the fixed variables b G , w, b-,.,., L, ut , and meat and ingredient prices ni p , i p , current ingredient inventory iwise and transportation prices i ⁇ subject to the constraints C,( » ), ..., C k ( «). (Actually, some of these vectors could be a
• the optimizer 46 determines if the final values of the
• block 2 i.e., iterate the process.
• step 5 Using the values produced in step 5 is the simplest method, but may lead to non-convergence (e.g., the loop never finishes). More sophisticated well known adjustment techniques may also be used (e.g., well known techniques used in gradient search optimization methods).
• the optimizer 46 stores the current value of all variables, and the corresponding evaluation value. At block 9, the optimizer 46 determines if all values of bird genetics b G
• the optimizer 46 sets bird genetics b G to the next value. Control then proceeds to block 2. Control continues to loop through blocks 2- 10 until all values of bird genetics b G have been tested. Then control proceeds to block 11.
• the optimizer 46 reviews all variable sets stored in block 7, and chooses the set with the optimum evaluation value as the optimum
• controllers 48, 50 explained below are then called to execute the plan. 5. Notes on the System Construction Process
• the delivery schedule b. is assumed to be modifiable by the algorithm. However, there are cases when the delivery schedule b. may be considered a constant. For example, when responding to the spot market
• the delivery schedule b. may be considered variable (different offers on the spot market with different schedules may be considered for acceptance). But
• the schedule may be unchangeable.
• system 30 preferably allows for either possibility. Interactions of operators/users are not depicted. The process is
• FIGS. 8A-8B An exemplary program for implementing the production planner 42 is shown in FIGS. 8A-8B. The operations illustrated in FIGS. 8A-8B are performed at blocks 2 and 3 of FIG. 7.
• the production planner 42 When the production planner 42 is called, it first saves the initial values of the critical variables (block 100).
• variables used by the production planner 42 must be saved to support later overall optimization convergence tests in the optimizer 46. These values may have been set by the production planner 42 itself via step 111. This step ensures that the values are stored.
• the production planner 42 attempts to allocate the production requirements of the production goals (e.g., yield, meat mix, delivery schedule) to the final processing plants (e.g., sausage making facilities, breading).
• the production requirements of the production goals e.g., yield, meat mix, delivery schedule
• the final processing plants e.g., sausage making facilities, breading
• Block 101 More specifically, it identifies the production
• FIG. 8A At block 1 1 1 , the production planner 42 modifies the production
• the production planner 42 determines the supply
• planner 42 develops a delivery schedule specifying quantities and timing for
• the final processing plants e.g., chicken breasts.
• the production planner 42 accesses the processing plant
• the production planner 42 determines if changes in the
• control proceeds to block 111 where the production planner 42 modifies the production goals. Control then returns to block 100
• production planner 42 redistributes the final processing plant responsibilities as explained above.
• the production planner 42 is able to allocate the production requirements of the current production plan to the initial processing
• control proceeds to block 104.
• the production planner 42 determines the supply requirements (e.g., quantity, type, and timing) for the initial processing plants. Control then proceeds to block 105.
• the production planner 42 accesses the bam database 56 and attempts to allocate the production requirements under the
• the production planner 42 determines whether changes in the initial processing plant allocation are possible within the current production plan. If
• control proceeds to block 106.
• the production planner 42 determines the supply requirements (e.g., quantity and delivery dates) for the bams under the current production plan. Control then proceeds to block 107.
• the production planner 42 accesses the hatchery database
• control 62 determines if the available hatcheries are capable of meeting the production requirements of the cu ⁇ ent production plan. If the hatcheries cannot meet the production requirements, control proceeds to block 113 where the production planner 42 determines if other bam allocations can be made under the current production plan. If so, control returns to block 105. Otherwise, control returns to block 112 (FIG. 8 A). If the hatcheries are capable of meeting the production requirements under the current production plan (block 107), control proceeds to block 108.
• the production planner 42 saves the current production goals and the current production plan. The production planner 42 then determines
• FIGS. 8A-8B Each of blocks 101, 103, 105 and 107 in FIGS. 8A-8B takes into
• Each block in FIGS. 8A-8B may pass through requirements to a later step (e.g., final processing may pass requirements through to initial processing, indicating that the product is NOT to be delivered to final processing, but to some other location).
• Facility databases (e.g., processing plant, bam, and hatchery databases) contain information on the cu ⁇ ent plan underway for the facilities.
• a "dismemberment function" in block 103 (and optionally block 101) relates bird size & genetics to product.
• Percent yield comes from the processing plant database 60 (e.g. historical numbers).
• an operator can override variables in the process, although for simplicity of illustration, this interaction is not shown.
• Nutrition Planner - Control Flow Description An exemplary program for implementing the nutrition planner 44 is
• FIG. 9 The operations shown in FIG. 9 are performed at block 4 of
• FIG. 7. At block 200 of FIG. 9, the nutrition planner 44 receives inputs from
• the production planner 42 which factor into nutrition determination.
• the nutrition planner 44 preferably receives data indicative of:
• the nutrition planner 44 saves the initial values of critical variables.
• the nutrition planner 44 fetches standard nutrition plans from the standard animal nutrition database 54 to form part of the template of the final nutrition plan (for example, carbohydrates, fat, protein, amino acids, vitamins, other nutrients).
• the nutrition planner 44 also fetches modeling information from the animal non-nutrition database 53 to identify which non-
• nutrition components should be used to achieve production goals. These non- nutrition components are added to the final nutrition plan.
• the nutrition planner 44 gets environmental factors data
• This data can be retrieved
• the nutrition planner 44 modifies the nutrition plan
• the nutrition planner 44 preferably allows a nutritionist to manually examine and modify the plan. However, this step may optionally be omitted.
• the nutrition planner 44 examines the ingredient nutrition database 52 to selectively determine ingredients which supply nutrients and/or non-nutrient components specified in the plan. Selection of
• ingredients can be performed by, for example, omitting ingredients which have no or negligible nutrients contained in the plan, ingredients which are not available locally, and omitting ingredients based on any other pertinent selection factors.
• the nutrition planner 44 constructs an output matrix relating selected ingredients to nutrients, and specifying how much of each nutrient is supplied by the ingredient.
• the optimizer 46 queries the operator for an optimization
• inputting data can be used to obtain the optimization goal including, by way of examples, not limitations, a menu which can be selected by a point and click device, and a keyboard.
• the optimizer 46 stores the goal, and control proceeds to block 302.
• the optimizer 46 requests the operator to input the planning window (e.g., what time frame to perform planning over such as October-December, 2001). Once the planning window is inputted by the planning window.
• the optimizer 46 stores the data and proceeds to block 303.
• the optimizer 46 requests the operator to input an initial estimate of the total yield. Once the operator inputs that data, the optimizer 46
• the optimizer 46 requests the operator to input an estimate of the mix of meat (e.g. whole chickens, breast meat, and legs, etc.). Once the operator inputs that data, the optimizer 46 stores the meat mix data, and control proceeds to block 305.
• an estimate of the mix of meat e.g. whole chickens, breast meat, and legs, etc.
• the optimizer 46 requests the operator to input a
• the optimizer 46 determines the set of available bird
• the optimizer 46 performs this step by accessing
• control proceeds to block 307 where the optimizer 46 selects one bird genetic type from the set of available bird genetics as the initial genetic setting. Control then proceeds to block 2 of FIG. 7.
• FIGS. 11 A-l IB illustrate blocks 5-11 of FIG. 7 in greater detail.
• Blocks 401-406 correspond to block 5 of FIG. 7.
• Block 407 corresponds to block 6 of FIG. 7.
• Block 409 corresponds to block 8 of FIG. 7.
• Block 410 co ⁇ esponds to block 9 of FIG. 7.
• Block 411 co ⁇ esponds to block 10 of FIG.
• Block 412 corresponds to block 11 of FIG. 7. This process can be triggered by: an operator, an unachieved purchase in the buying plan, an unachieved sale
• the optimizer 46 retrieves the plan inputs and constraints. At block 402, the optimizer 46 retrieves the real-time market inputs.
• the optimizer 46 obtains market information on meat sales
• This information may also be used at block 403.
• Each entry contains information about the pertinent market. For example, if
• chicken wings are being offered on Market 1 at Price 1, and on Market 2 at Price 2, then there will be two entries for chicken wings, one for each market.
• Direct offers are two party arrangements, a buyer and seller. Interaction may be entirely point to point online (e.g., using EDI), through an electronic market, negotiated via other electronic means (e.g., telephone, fax), or even face to face.
• the optimizer estimates the market input(s) where actual data is unavailable. The market information may not definitively cover the
• holes in the information are preferably filled
• an evaluation value e.g., dollar value
• ingredient inventory is assigned a cost, which can include the cost of NOT using the cu ⁇ ent inventory (the cost may be zero if desired).
• a cost which can include the cost of NOT using the cu ⁇ ent inventory (the cost may be zero if desired).
• ingredient may be valued at replacement cost, the cost of the future, the cash
• mapping of these inputs to a common value scale permits the system to trade off resource usage (e.g., is it better to discard cu ⁇ ent inventory and use a new ingredient than to use the current inventory?)
• the mapping of an input to value can merge multiple inputs (for example, the cost of an ingredient may factor in transportation
• the optimizer 46 may optionally output the current
• variable value to provide the system user with an opportunity to modify those values.
• the optimizer 46 executes an optimization algorithm.
• an optimization algorithm As will be appreciated by persons of ordinary skill in the art, there are many well known algorithms available from the fields of operations research, mathematical optimization, and artificial intelligence which can implement
• the optimizer 46 executes a convergence test. This step
• the convergence test is to determine if the
• the optimizer 46 adjusts the critical variables. Since reaching block 408 indicates that the process has not converged, a new set of initial conditions needs to be tried. This step sets those values for the automatically optimized variables.
• the automatically optimized variables include: total yield (y), meat mix (parts vs. whole (b ⁇ , and delivery schedule (b s )). Setting the initial values of the variables directly to the current (output) value of the variables is one technique. However, many systems will not
• variable values indexed by initial values block 409 (FIG. 1 IB).
• exit 2 is used from block 408 when the
• the next step of the process is to invoke the production planner 42 with the new set of variables (see block 2 of FIG. 7).
• the optimizer 46 next determines whether there is a need to try new initial conditions (block 410 of FIG. 1 IB). The overall process has converged for the cu ⁇ ent set of initial conditions, but perhaps not all combinations of discretely optimized variables have been tried (e.g., bird genetics). This block tests for this situation.
• the optimizer 46 adjusts the initial variables at block 411 and the next step of the process is to invoke the production planner 42 with the new set of variables (see block 2 of
• feed plans are stored in the appropriate databases. If the plan is rejected, the process is aborted at block 413 and the entire process is started over again by
• the optimizer 46 also saves the market conditions (e.g., the ingredient prices) under which the plan 5 was developed for later user by the market monitor 67.
• the optimizer 46 also saves the market conditions (e.g., the ingredient prices) under which the plan 5 was developed for later user by the market monitor 67.
• the optimizer 46 also saves the market conditions (e.g., the ingredient prices) under which the plan 5 was developed for later user by the market monitor 67.
• FIGS .12-14 illustrate an exemplary program for implementing the
• the selling plan controller 48 obtains the sales plan from
• the optimizer 46 the sales plan is a list of meat
• the selling plan controller 48 processes the entries in the sales plan to identify offers to sell in the plan which should be combined into a single, combined entry in the sales plan (i.e., block offer(s)). Once such block offer(s) are developed and the sales sheet modified to reflect their presence,
• the selling plan controller 48 retrieves the first entry in the sales plan.
• the selling plan controller 48 then enters a loop defined by
• the selling plan controller 48 processes every bid and every offer in the sales plan.
• the selling plan controller 48 examines the cu ⁇ ent entry from the sales plan to determine if it is a bid received from a third party to purchase goods or an offer to sell to be made to the market. If it is a bid to purchase received from a third party,
• control returns to block 501 where the selling plan controller 48 awaits arrival
• the selling plan controller 48 accesses the appropriate online exchange 26 to determine if the offer to purchase associated with the
• plan controller 48 then stops processing the current sales plan and control returns to block 501 of FIG. 12.
• the selling plan controller 48 forwards a bid to accept the
• the selling plan controller 48 waits for a response from the
• the selling plan controller 48 times out (block 516) and assumes the bid to sell was rejected. (The selling plan controller 48 may then optionally withdraw the
• the selling plan controller 48 examines the response to determine if the bid to sell has been accepted (block 514). If the bid is rejected, control proceeds to block 517 where the rejected bid is recorded. If the bid is accepted (block 514), control
• This process may be executed against a direct offer as well as a market offer.
• the selling plan controller 48 extends the
• the selling plan controller 48 then waits for a response for a predetermined length of time (block 523). If the predetermined time expires without a response from the on-line exchange(s) 26 (block 527), the selling plan controller 48 assumes that the offer was not accepted and the selling plan controller times out (block 527). (Optionally, the selling plan controller 48 will then send a message to the on-line exchange 26 indicating that the offer is
• controller 48 records the rejected offer. Control then proceeds to block 529.
• the selling plan controller 48 optionally determines whether the selling plan includes an alternative (i.e., a substitute offer to be made in place of the unaccepted offer). If so, control retums to block 506 of
• the selling plan controller 48 sends a trigger message to
• the optimizer 46 requesting the optimizer 46 to develop a new optimized livestock production plan based on the new market information (block 529),
• the selling plan controller 48 reviews the message to determine if the received bid to purchase is acceptable (block 524). If the bid is not acceptable, the selling plan controller 48 sends a
• the bid acceptance inquiry at block 524 can be a
• Offers may be executed as direct contracts as well as market offers. A variation of this offer process would place offers at higher than the plan price, and if not accepted , place additional offers lowering the price in
• FIGS. 15-17 illustrate an exemplary program for implementing the buying plan controller 50.
• the buying plan controller 50 obtains the buying plan from the optimizer 46.
• the buying plan is a list of ingredients to purchase. Each entry in the list identifies a desired purchase price. Once the buying plan is obtained, control proceeds to block 608.
• the buying plan controller 50 processes the entries in the buying plan to identify offers to purchase in the plan which should be combined into a single, combined entry in the buying plan (i.e., block offer(s)).
• the buying plan controller 50 retrieves the first entry in the buying plan.
• the buying plan controller 50 then enters a loop defined by blocks 603-607 where the buying plan controller 50 processes every bid and every offer in the buying plan.
• the buying plan controller 50 processes every bid and every offer in the buying plan.
• controller 50 examines the current entry from the buying plan to determine if it is a bid to purchase goods from a specific third party or an offer to buy goods
• control proceeds to block 606. If all entries in the buying plan have been processed, control returns to block 601 where the buying plan confroller 50 awaits arrival of another buying plan to process. Otherwise, control proceeds to block 607 where the buying plan controller 50 selects the next entry for processing through blocks 603-606.
• the buying plan controller 50 accesses the appropriate online exchange(s) 26 to determine if the offer to sell associated with the current entry is still open. If the offer to sell is not still open, control proceeds
• plan controller 50 then stops processing the cu ⁇ ent sales plan and control
• the buying plan controller 50 forwards a bid to accept the offer to
• the buying plan controller 50 waits for a response from the relevant
• the buying plan controller 50 If at block 613, the buying plan controller 50 receives a message from 0 the relevant exchange(s) 26 within the predetermined time, the buying plan controller 50 examines the response to determine if the bid to purchase has been accepted (block 614). If the bid is rejected, control proceeds to block 617
• This process may be executed against a direct offer as well as a market
• plan price and if not accepted, place additional offers raising the price in steps until a bid is accepted, or, finally, the plan price is offered and accepted or
• the buying plan controller 50 extends the cu ⁇ ent offer (block or single) to the market by contacting the appropriate online exchange(s) 26.
• the buying plan controller 50 then waits for a response for a predetermined length of time (block 623). If the predetermined time expires
• the buying plan controller 50 assumes that the offer was not accepted and the buying plan controller 50 times out (block 627). (Optionally, the buying plan controller 50
• the buying plan controller 50 determines whether the buying plan includes an alternative (i.e., a substitute for the unaccepted offer
• control returns to block 606 of FIG. 15.
• the buying plan controller 50 sends a trigger message to the
• optimizer 46 requesting the optimizer 46 to develop a new optimized livestock production plan based on the new market information (block 629), and control
• the buying plan confroller 50 reviews the message to determine if the received bid to sell is acceptable
• the bid acceptance inquiry at block 624 can be a
• Offers may be executed as direct contracts as well as market offers. A variation of this offer process would place offers at lower than the
• FIGS. 18A-18C An exemplary program for implementing the inventory planner 40 (FIG. 6) is shown in FIGS. 18A-18C.
• the inventory planner 40 cooperates with the optimizer 46 to ensure that the feed plan associated with the new livestock production plan can, in fact, be implemented given the constraints of
• the inventory manager 40 is preferably called to check the new feed plan after block 412 and before block 413 of FIG. 11B.
• blocks 700-702 define a monitoring loop ' ) wherein the inventory manager watches for new information. If at block 700 a new feed plan is received, control proceeds to block 703 of FIG. 18B. If not, control proceeds to block 701 (FIG. 18A). At block 701, the inventory levels
• the optimizer 46 is invoked to re-plan.
• control continues to loop through blocks 700-702 until a triggering event occurs at
• the inventory planner 40 triggers the optimizer 46 to initiate the process of
• the inventory planner 40 accesses the current ingredients position and current inventory database 64 to retrieve data indicating current ingredient inventories and the accepted ingredient bids and offers.
• the inventory planner 40 sums or compiles the retrieved data into a supply schedule reflecting the amount of each ingredient expected to be on hand
• the inventory planner 40 subtracts the inventory
• the inventory planner 40 determines if any
• the inventory planner 40 sends a message to the
• the inventory planner 40 determines if any of the ingredient handling capabilities of the feed mill are exceeded under the current plan. That determination is made by accessing the feed mill database 34. This can be a more detailed analysis than elsewhere, for example, taking into
• transportation restrictions e.g., loading dock space constraining frequency of shipment departure/arrival.
• the inventory planner 40 retrieves the relevant portions of the production plan. Control then proceeds to block 711 where the
• inventory planner 40 determines whether any of the meat facility production line capabilities are exceeded by the proposed plan. This determination is made by accessing the processing plant database 60. This can be a more
• planner 40 updates the inventory database 64 as needed. Control then returns
• FIGS. 19 and 20 illustrate an exemplary program for implementing the ingredient registration service 14 shown in FIG. 2.
• FIG. 19 focuses on the process for developing the population database.
• the ingredients registration service 14 receives an input, it first determines whether the received message relates to an ingredient or animal already identified in the
• the database population module 16 determines whether the received message is a request to update the data associated with that ingredient or animal or a message of a different type (e.g.,
• the database population module 16 determines whether the fee associated with planning the subject
• the database population module 16 authorizes issuance of a request for payment to the user associated with the
• database population module 16 makes the data available on-line by, for example, changing a flag associated with the data in the database (block 814).
• the database population module 16 determines whether the submitted data has a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data does not contain a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data does not contain a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data does not contain a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data does not contain a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data does not contain a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data does not contain a verification (e.g., a digital signature) indicating that the submitted data has been tested (block 804). If the data
• confrol proceeds to block 806 where the database population module 16 authorizes transmission of a message to request verification of the submitted data. If at block 804, the database population module 16 determines that the submitted data has been verified, control proceeds to block 808.
• the database population module 16 stores the submitted data in the database in indexed fashion and a "dissemination" flag indicating that the data should not be placed on-line is set. Control then proceeds to block 810 where the revenue module 20 determines whether the fee for
• the access controller 18 first attempts to identify the user (block 900). If the access
• control then retums to block 900.
• the access confroller 18 determines that the user is
• the user profile information of the user is retrieved. As mentioned above, the user
• profile information will include a date-time stamp indicating the last time that the user requested a download from the system 14. Control then proceeds to block 908.
• the database population module 16 determines whether the user has requested a full data download. A user might wish to download all relevant data if, for example, they are a new user, or if their local data
• the database population module 16 determines whether
• the ingredient registration service 14 sends a message to
• the database population module 16 determines that a relevant data change has oecu ⁇ ed, or if the user requests a full download (block 908) confrol proceeds to block 914.
• the database population module 16 determines that a relevant data change has oecu ⁇ ed, or if the user requests a full download (block 908) confrol proceeds to block 914.
• the database population module 16 determines that a relevant data change has oecu ⁇ ed, or if the user requests a full download (block 908) confrol proceeds to block 914.
• the database population module 16 determines that a relevant data change has oecu ⁇ ed, or if the user requests a full download (block 908) confrol proceeds to block 914.
• the database population module 16 determines that a relevant data change has oecu ⁇ ed, or if the user requests a full download (block 908) confrol proceeds to block 914.
• the database population module 16 determines that a relevant data change has oecu ⁇
• population module 16 downloads the requested data. (Of course, only data with an appropriately set dissemination flag (i.e., one that indicates fee payment) will be downloaded.) Control then proceeds to block 916 where the user's profile is updated with the date-time stamp of the current download.
• the market monitor 67 monitors the meat markets
• the market monitor 67 first creates the parallel threads to perform the desired monitoring (block 1100). These threads
• the market monitor 67 causes the system to develop a new plan given the current market conditions (block 1108).
• the market monitor 67 causes the system to develop a new plan given the current market conditions (block 1108).
• the market monitor 67 compares the new plan to the previous plan (i.e., the plan being executed when the market change was detected) (block 1110). This comparison is preferably focused on the object of optimization (e.g., cash flow, profit, etc.) which was used to develop the plans. If the comparison between the two plans reveals a
• the new plan (block 1114).
• the new plan may make some or all
• the market monitor 67 determines the buying and/or selling actions needed to eliminate such contracts (block 1114).
• the manager(s) in this step can be a human and/or the automated managers (e.g., the production manager, the nutrition manager, etc.) If the manager(s) disapproves, control proceeds to block 1118 where the market
• manager 67 temporarily modifies the definition(s) of "significant market changes" used in blocks 1102 and 1104 so that the same market conditions do not re-trigger the reevaluation process.
• the modifications are temporary in the sense that once a new plan is approved (e.g., at block 1128) at some point in the future, then the original def ⁇ nition(s) of "significant market change(s)" are
• control returns to block 1100 of FIG. 21 A.
• the new plan, the new bid sheet and the new selling sheet are then saved in the appropriate databases and the buying and selling
• plan controllers 48, 50 are invoked to execute the new plan (block 1126).
• each animal producer 8 is provided with (a) software for maintaining local databases with data which is downloaded from the ingredient registration service 14 and/or loaded locally,
• the centralized server uses production constraint data uploaded (on at least one occasion) by the animal producer 8,
• the ingredient registration service 14 can optionally be owned
• the term "computer” refers to one or more computers
• the term “server” refers to one or more servers
• the term “database” refers to one or more databases.
• referring in the singular to any other component (or step) that can be implemented by one or more components (or steps) is meant to encompass the singular and/or the plural.
• the disclosed apparatus may be used as an economic analysis tool to develop information of interest to an
• an ingredient supplier 2 including, for example, a money
• apparatus can be used as a predictive tool to enable parties of interest to make
• a user of the apparatus can first run the apparatus to develop a livestock production plan based on cu ⁇ ent conditions (market, production capacities, etc.). Then, the user can adjust data in the ingredient database which is indicative of at least one predefined ingredient and re-execute the apparatus to develop a new production plan.
• the user can determine what, if any, effect
• This information can be important because it reflects how the modeled animal producer 8 will likely react to the adjustment in the ingredient database. This information would be
• this information can be used by the ingredient
• Such info ⁇ nation can then be used to make informed economic decisions.
• the disclosed apparatus can be employed to
• nutritional content or a different attribute e.g., an enzyme that aids digestion
• a specific mycotoxin level, etc. than an existing ingredient.
• a specific mycotoxin level etc.
• the producer of genetically modified and/or quality bred com could use the model to estimate the expected return of improving the protein content of its com (e.g., from 5% to 6%).
• the ingredient supplier 2 would perform this analysis in much the same way explained above. In particular, the ingredient supplier 2 would first execute the model to develop a production plan given current conditions. Then the ingredient supplier 2 would adjust the data in the ingredient database indicative of the nutritional content of the product of interest (e.g., increasing the protein content of its com from 5% to 6%), and
• a comparison of the second production plan with the first production plan will provide the ingredient supplier 2 with information concerning the animal producer's likely response to the presence of the improved ingredient (e.g., com with 6% protein) in the marketplace.
• the improved ingredient e.g., com with 6% protein
• An animal stock provider 4 can also use the disclosed methods and
• the animal stock provider 4 can run the apparatus to develop a
• the animal stock provider 4 can then adjust data in the nutrition requirements database which is indicative of at least one possible livestock, and then re-run the apparatus to develop a second production plan based on the modified data. Comparison of the new production plan with the previous production plan will provide the animal stock provider 4 with information concerning the animal producer's likely response to the change in availability of the possible livestock.
• the change in availability can be, for example, making a new livestock available, making a genetically modified or quality bred livestock available, or removing a
• the animal stock provider 4 can use the predictive information developed by employing the apparatus in this manner to make informed economic decisions.
• the animal stock provider 4 could employ the apparatus to predict the economic effect of making livestock having a
• the disclosed apparatus and methods can be used as a predictive tool in many other ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.
• the animal stock provider 4 can be used as a predictive tool in many other ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.
• the animal stock provider 4 can be used as a predictive tool in many other ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.
• the animal stock provider 4 can be used as a predictive tool in many other ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.
• the animal stock provider 4 can be used as a predictive tool in many other ways without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.
• a livestock with an improved quality trait e.g., a chicken with more breast meat or higher
• the animal producer 8 can also use the disclosed apparatus as a predictive tool for growing their business. Under
• the animal producer 8 can run the apparatus to develop a
• the animal producer 8 can obtain information concerning the effect on its business of making a modification to
• the animal producer 8 can use the system to determine the desirability of expanding to a new location before actually investing any resources in performing the expansion.
• employing the apparatus as a predictive tool enables the animal producer 8 to better understand the implications of executing a long- term contract with a supplier and/or customer before the contract is actually executed by running the model once assuming the contract is present and once assuming it is not, and comparing the results. Again, this ability to ascertain predictive information should lead to more informed economic decisions.
• an animal producer 8 interested, for example, in expanding their operation could employ the apparatus to identify an optimized location for
• production constraints database includes data for a plurality of different animal producers 8 (e.g., all animal producers, a statistical sampling of animal users, animal users in a particular region, etc.), the apparatus can be iteratively executed to develop a first set of production plans based on the current conditions, and a second set of production plans based on an adjustment of one
• FIGS. 22A-22B illustrate a flowchart for developing economic
• the apparatus first requests the user to identify the set of animal producers 8 which are to be used in performing the predictive analysis. (Block 1000).
• the set of animal producers 8 can include all
• animal producers 8 in the system all animal producers 8 in a specific language
• the apparatus develops a production plan for the first animal producer 8 in the set of animal producers 8 based on the current conditions.
• the production plan is developed as explained above in connection with FIGS. 2-20.
• the developed production plan is then saved
• the apparatus determines whether a production plan based on the current market conditions has been developed for each animal producer 8 in the set of animal producers (block 1006). If so, control proceeds to block
• control proceeds to block 1008 where the counter X is incremented by one. Control will continue to loop through blocks 1002-1008
• the apparatus requests the user to input the data to be
• variable X is set to zero and confrol proceeds to block 1012 (FIG. 22B).
• block 1012 it is saved (block 1014). If a production plan based on the new conditions has been developed for each of the animal producers 8 in the set (block 1016), control proceeds to block 1020. Otherwise, control proceeds to block 1018 where the counter X is incremented. The loop defined by blocks 1012-1018 continues executing until a production plan is developed and saved for each of the animal producers 8 in the set (block 1016).
• the apparatus compares the first set of production plans
• the apparatus then outputs the differences between the plans to the user (block 1022). As explained above, these differences can be
• the actual data in the databases is not changed by the data input by the user at block 1010 of FIG. 22 A or in any of the examples given above.
• adjusted data submitted by the user is then stored at the specified location where it can be accessed for use in developing the second set of production
• the system will preferably not present the new or modified ingredient or animal directly to the market to solicit pricing information via, for example, a dummy request for solicitation. Instead, the
• system preferably assumes that the new or modified ingredient or animal is priced at a level commensurate with a substitute product available on the
• the adjusted input and the production plan(s) developed under current conditions to estimate the value and, thus, the appropriate pricing level for the adjusted input (e.g., the new or modified ingredient or animal).
• the user employs the system to develop production plan(s) based on current conditions assuming the new com does not exist.
• the user makes the new com available to the system assuming the price of the new com (e.g., 6% protein com) is the same as the existing com (e.g., 4% protein com) and uses the system to develop predictive production plan(s).
• the user compares the developed production plans to identify the result of making the improved com available. If, for example, the difference shows that X ton of the new com is
• the user can determine the incremental price increase per ton relative to existing com and can price their new com (e.g. 6% protein com) accordingly.
• new com e.g. 6% protein com
• the apparatus when the apparatus is implemented with the predictive capabilities described above and shown in FIGS. 22A-22B, it is preferable to implement the apparatus as a centralized device having a centralized ingredient database 52, a centralized nutrition requirements database 54, and a centralized production constraints
• the centralized databases reduce processing time in performing the predictive analysis across multiple animal producers 8.
• the data stored in the physical production constraint database is preferably stored without specific reference to the associated animal producer's identity (e.g., a pseudonym or number is employed). To further enhance the privacy of the centralized system, the data stored in the physical production constraint database is preferably stored without specific reference to the associated animal producer's identity (e.g., a pseudonym or number is employed). To further enhance the privacy of the centralized system, the data stored in the physical production constraint database is preferably stored without specific reference to the associated animal producer's identity (e.g., a pseudonym or number is employed).
• the apparatus is preferably configured to prevent direct downloads from that database, and the apparatus
• individual animal producer 8 are equally applicable to using the apparatus as a
• the differences between the first and second sets of the production plans developed by the process illustrated in FIGS. 22A-22B can be used for a wide variety of economic analysis.
• the differences between the production plans can be used to calculate a value of an ingredient including an
• adjusted nutritional content i.e., the nutritional content value is adjusted at
• substitution price is developed, the user can take economic action based upon
• the user can optionally sell the substitution
• a user can employ the difference between the first and second sets of production plans to estimate total use of one or more of the possible ingredients to thereby estimate the demand curve for that ingredient(s).
• the user can also employ the identified differences between the sets of production plans to determine a substitution price for one or more
• the user can respond to the calculated difference between the production plans by taking a market
• the position based on the modified production plan i.e., the predicted plans based on the modified data. For example, one can take a market position that
• Examples of possible market positions include selling on a
• rations exchange is preferably operated to receive a solicitation via a computer network for bids to purchase a given nutrition ration from a first party, and to make that solicitation for bids available to potential purchasers via the computer network. Then, when the rations exchange receives from a second party an electronic bid to purchase a quantity of that nutrition ration from the first party, it delivers the bid to the first party. Subsequently, a contract may be created between the first and second parties for the sale of a quantity of the given nutrition ration from the first party to the second part. This ration
• contract can be a futures contract or a cash contract.
• a ration exchange also provides new business opportunities. For example, a user interested in purchasing metabolic energy
• a ration on the ration exchange
• a computer network could access the appropriate ration exchange via a computer network to determine a current price of that nutrition ration. That entity could also access a commodity exchange via the computer
• a network to determine a current price of a predetermined commodity (e.g.,
• the user can then compare the current prices of the commodity (in
• the cu ⁇ ent prices of the commodity and the nutrition ration being analyzed are
• compared prices are adjusted to ensure they are being compared on a one-for-

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• 2001
  • 2001-05-18 EP EP01939168A patent/EP1290573A1/fr not_active Withdrawn
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