CN202067328U - Intelligent bus riding system capable of generating bus riding scheme and predicting passenger flow volume - Google Patents
Intelligent bus riding system capable of generating bus riding scheme and predicting passenger flow volume Download PDFInfo
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- CN202067328U CN202067328U CN2011201540988U CN201120154098U CN202067328U CN 202067328 U CN202067328 U CN 202067328U CN 2011201540988 U CN2011201540988 U CN 2011201540988U CN 201120154098 U CN201120154098 U CN 201120154098U CN 202067328 U CN202067328 U CN 202067328U
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Abstract
The utility model discloses an intelligent bus riding system capable of generating bus riding scheme and predicting passenger flow volume, which comprises a user management system, a bus riding plan management system in communication connection with the user management system, a bus management system in communication connection with the bus riding plan management system, a bus riding scheme disposing module in communication connection with the bus management system and at least one passenger flow volume prediction device. The bus riding scheme disposing module is in communication connection with an intelligent user terminal and the user management system. The intelligent bus riding system can provide bus riding schemes automatically and intelligently, bring convenience to passengers in riding buses, reduce bus waiting time for the passengers for bus, reduce probability of missing buses for the passengers and further predict the passenger flow volume of the buses. Moreover, the valuable predicted values including the passenger flow volume, even each path of buses, each bus, each stop, each bus at any time point and the like can be predicted. Therefore, scientific basis and date supports are provided for reasonable running and scheduling of the buses.
Description
Technical field
The utility model relates to the urban mass-transit system technical field, more particularly, relates to a kind of intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount.
Background technology
There are two problems to need to solve in the city bus truck system.First problem is, the passenger can run into two very inconvenient situations in the process of taking bus: one is that the passenger often waits for AT STATION that for a long time time could wait until that oneself wanting the bus taken, another one is that the passenger can run into the situation of oneself wanting the bus taken of missing.The reason that produces these two problems is the non-transparency because of bus realtime running data, and promptly the passenger can't know when the bus of oneself wanting to take arrives the website of getting on the bus.The passenger can't know that the realtime running data of bus just can't reasonably arrange the by bus plan of oneself, and can only self-dependent experience arrange own planning by bus.The development of GPS can realize the transparence of bus realtime running data easily, makes the passenger can obtain the real-time operation data of bus at any time.Several modes realize the operation data that bus is real-time below main at present the employing.
Being about to of electronic direction board prompting bus by platform entered the station or arrived at a station information, this mode can allow the passenger know when the bus of oneself wanting to take arrives at a station really, but prerequisite is the passenger must arrive earlier website, also must wait for bus even know when bus arrives at a station.Before not getting to the station, the passenger can't know when bus arrives at a station, and may miss bus this moment.
The passenger is by the mode of manual telephone system inquiry, and the passenger can only obtain the operation data of the flashy bus of inquiry and can not allow the passenger grasp the real-time operation data of bus at any time, still can't allow the passenger rationally arrange the plan by bus of oneself.
Mode by the web inquiry, though this mode can be grasped the real-time operation data of bus, but require to use the higher mobile devices of configuration such as computer or palm PC, these equipment can't be followed the passenger at any time, and this just can't obtain the real-time operation data of bus after just having caused the passenger to leave these equipment that can't carry.
Use mobile phone to obtain the real-time geographic position of bus or estimate arrival time or the like, and have prompting function, concrete scheme is seen and is searched the real-time public transport MyBus of paddy palm.This scheme is present reasonable implementation, and mobile phone is easy to carry, and the passenger can obtain the real-time operation data of bus at any time, and prompting function is arranged, and can solve the problem that the passenger waits bus for a long time, can also prevent that the passenger from missing bus simultaneously.But this mode is a kind of inquiry system by mobile phone, and the passenger needs each oneself initiation to inquire about, and allows the passenger always repeat identical operations, and the time has been grown the fatigue that can cause the passenger.The bus that meets most when returning inquiry during simultaneously this mode, prompting function prevent that just the passenger from missing this bus that system returns, but the passenger can't solve with regard to having missed the problem that meets the own bus of planning by bus most when inquiry.
Second problem be, how bus passenger flow volume added up, and the volume of the flow of passengers ground prediction of important data foundation is provided for the decision-making of bus scheduling.Present bus passenger flow volume statistical method has varied.At first, what adopt is video method, on bus stop or bus camera head is installed, and obtains the patronage of platform and the patronage of getting on the bus by camera head, by video analytics server video data is changed into number then, form volume of the flow of passengers data.Concrete scheme sees that number of patent application is 201010122682,200810043936 Chinese utility application.Second kind of scheme adopts statistics passenger the swipe the card number and the number of inserting coins, and deducts the ridership of getting off then, obtains the volume of the flow of passengers, sees that specifically number of patent application is 200810021604 Chinese utility application.Infrared ray that the third scheme adopts or other wireless device monitors passenger loading and the behavior of getting off count the volume of the flow of passengers then, or the number that adopts the infrared observation platform at platform is to reach the purpose of the statistics volume of the flow of passengers.The 4th kind, sensor installation on the pedal up and down of bus then by the activity of monitoring pedal, reaches the purpose of the statistics volume of the flow of passengers then, and concrete scheme is seen the patent No. 200520026153 Chinese utility model patents.
More than be present modal several passenger flow volume statistical methods, it all is the method for carrying out actual guest flow statistics, no matter above-mentioned passenger flow quantitative statistics has how accurate, but for having little significance of the scheduling of bus, because the dispatching office of bus is based on the predicted value of the volume of the flow of passengers rather than the actual in the past volume of the flow of passengers.Adopt the method for video monitoring platform and the method for infrared monitor control platform, can reach the effect of obtaining the platform ridership in advance, but be difficult to distinguish these passengers in advance and will take which bus, simultaneously can't get access to the patronage that does not also get to the station, might will be that the approach passerby that crosses platform calculates in the volume of the flow of passengers also, the degree of accuracy of its prediction is not high, and is limited as the value of the practicality of dispatching foundation.The raw data of other these methods is to be based upon passenger and bus relation has taken place to take or to fasten taking the pass in the utmost point short time (can ignore), can only carry out actual passenger flow quantitative statistics.Its predictability can only be predicted the volume of the flow of passengers in the following same period with the border volume of the flow of passengers factually, but because passenger's the randomness of behavior by bus causes its predictive value not high.
The utility model content
The purpose of this utility model is to overcome above-mentioned defective of the prior art, providing a kind of can realize automatically, intelligence by bus scheme and automatic reminding function be provided, for taking bus, passenger's trip facilitates, reduce the time of buses such as passenger, reduce the probability that the passenger misses bus, can also predict bus passenger flow volume, and can dope each road bus, the volume of the flow of passengers of each bus, the volume of the flow of passengers of website, each bus has the volume of the flow of passengers predicted value of value in volume of the flow of passengers of certain time or the like, the scheme by bus of generating of foundation that provides science for the reasonable operation and the scheduling of bus and data support and intelligent riding system that can the passenger flow forecast amount.
For achieving the above object, the technical scheme that the utility model provides is as follows: a kind of intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount is provided, comprise Subscriber Management System, the by bus project management system that communicates to connect with Subscriber Management System, the bus management system that is connected with the project management system communication of riding, the scheme processing module by bus that is connected with the bus communication, described scheme processing module by bus is connected with SmartClient, Subscriber Management System communication, also comprises at least one volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit.
The beneficial effect that generates the intelligent riding system of the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount described in the utility model is: by the structuring user's management system, project management system by bus, the bus management system, by bus project management system and Subscriber Management System, the bus communication connects, the bus management system communicates to connect with the scheme processing module of riding, described scheme processing module and SmartClient by bus, the Subscriber Management System communication connects, also comprise at least one volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit, can realize automatically, intelligence by bus scheme and automatic reminding function be provided, for taking bus, passenger's trip facilitates, reduce the time of buses such as passenger, reduce the probability that the passenger misses bus, can also predict bus passenger flow volume, and can dope each road bus, the volume of the flow of passengers of each bus, the volume of the flow of passengers of website, each bus has the volume of the flow of passengers predicted value of value in volume of the flow of passengers of certain time or the like, the foundation and the data support that provide science for the reasonable operation and the scheduling of bus.Owing to collected passenger's by bus plan and auxiliary parameter in advance, can be in advance according to the passenger different require to provide meet passenger's the best of plan scheme of riding by bus.Because the enforcement of whole proposal is controlled by application program, the passenger only need formulate plan and be provided with auxiliary parameter by bus or participate in a spot of decision-making just can, other whole in intelligent riding system and the dual robotization of SmartClient intelligently realize.Simplified passenger's operation like this, reduced operation steps, the passenger only needs to come just can realize reducing Waiting time by bus according to the guidance of intelligent riding system, reduce to miss the probability of bus, help the passenger to be implemented in the uncontrollable arrangement of time before etc. that takes bus.
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples the intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount described in the utility model is described further.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the system architecture schematic diagram that generates the intelligent riding system of the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount described in the utility model.
Embodiment
Below the preferred example that generates scheme by bus and intelligent riding system that can the passenger flow forecast amount described in the utility model, therefore do not limit protection domain of the present utility model.
With reference to Fig. 1, a kind of intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount is provided, comprise Subscriber Management System 1, the by bus project management system 2 that communicates to connect with Subscriber Management System 1, the bus management system 3 that is connected with project management system 2 communications of riding, with the scheme processing module 5 by bus that bus management system 3 communicates to connect, described scheme processing module 5 by bus is connected with SmartClient 6, Subscriber Management System 1 communication, also comprises at least one volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit 7.
Described bus management system 3 comprises the scheme processing module 5 by bus that is connected with 3 communications of bus management system, car-mounted terminal is installed on motorbus, and the gps system in this car-mounted terminal is responsible for the geography information reception that bus is real-time and is sent in the bus management system 3 handling.
After SmartClient 6 and this intelligence riding system foundation were got in touch, log-on message will be by Subscriber Management System 1 management.Subscriber Management System 1 will extract the planning data effectively by bus that passengers have set from the project management system 2 of riding automatically according to log-on message.Planning data comprises the website of getting on the bus by bus, get-off stop, and the expectation riding time, certain circuit bus is taken in expectation, and the passenger estimates to arrive the time interval of bus loading zone point, and expectation arrives the data such as time of get-off stop.The standard of planning data effectively by bus wherein is to guarantee that the passenger can take bus, and the relation of taking will occur in the following short time.Plan basis effectively by bus: the expectation riding time, the current time, the passenger estimates what the time of getting to the station was judged, decision method is as follows: the interval that expectation riding time and current time differ should estimate to arrive the time interval of bus loading zone point greater than the passenger, less than the passenger estimate to arrive a time interval of bus loading zone point and a time threshold values and, the span of time threshold values is between 15 minutes to 60 minutes.When not getting access to effectively by bus planning data, will remind the passenger manually to import these information.The passenger can be provided with some according to the situation of oneself and have regular plan by bus for a long time, and interim plan by bus also can be set.When Subscriber Management System 1 has obtained the passenger effectively by bus after the planning data, just data are transferred to intelligent riding system and handled.
The intelligence riding system carries out analyzing and processing to these data: the travel direction that can determine bus by get on the bus website and get-off stop, the information of taking certain circuit bus by expectation can be determined the line range of bus, the bus that can get rid of this circuit that has passed through this website by the website of getting on the bus, just can determine the scope to be selected that takes bus, estimate to arrive the most approaching that bus of expecting riding time of bus loading zone point time in the bus scope to be selected by expecting that riding time can match, the condition of the most approaching expectation riding time will be defined by passenger oneself, for example before expecting riding time, after expectation riding time, mode before expectation riding time or afterwards or the like.Estimate that by this bus the time interval and the passenger that arrive bus loading zone point estimate that the time interval that arrives bus loading zone point compares, if bus is estimated the time interval of arrival bus loading zone point and is estimated to arrive the time interval of bus loading zone point less than the passenger, then this bus does not meet passenger's plan by bus, and the bus loading zone point is taken this bus because the passenger probably can't arrive in the very nick of time.When this bus does not meet planning by bus of passenger, judge that then this bus is last bus in the bus scope to be selected, if last then notifies SmartClient 6 to wait for service.Last bus in bus scope to be selected is then deleted this bus in bus scope to be selected, mate once more as above-mentioned flow process, estimate to arrive time interval of bus loading zone point up to what bus estimate to arrive bus loading zone point interval greater than the passenger, then this bus is for meeting most passenger's bus of plan by bus, then the operation data of this bus is given the scheme processing module 5 of riding and monitored processing, information with this bus sends to SmartClient 6 simultaneously, generates to notify passenger's intelligence scheme of riding.If really do not meet the passenger by bus plan bus notify SmartClient 6 to wait for service, do not meet the passenger by bus the bus of plan represent to meet the passenger by bus the bus of plan also be not in operation state, promptly also do not dispatch a car at the initial website of bus.The operation data of above-mentioned bus comprises: the geo-localisation information that bus is real-time, the speed of bus arrives the distance of each website, estimates to arrive the time interval of each website, estimates to arrive the time data of each website etc.
Owing to do not meet the bus that the passenger plans by bus, SmartClient 6 is in when waiting for service, and need generate the scheme of riding and service is provided for the passenger automatically when suitable bus be arranged this moment.It is that the passenger generates scheme by bus that the intelligence riding system can adopt following manner: when a bus is dispatched a car from initial website, then this bus is added to bus management system 3, and bus management system 3 is given intelligent riding system with newly-increased bus information feedback.The intelligence riding system will will sign in in the intelligent riding system from Subscriber Management System 1 according to the information and the operation data thereof of this newly-increased bus, still waiting for service, and the affiliated circuit bus of this bus is taken in expectation, and the passenger users that seat direction is identical with this bus travel direction extracts and forms user's scope to be selected.User's scope to be selected is divided into groups according to passenger's the website of getting on the bus, and the user after the grouping is again according to the expectation riding time formation user grouping that sorts.By the distance in the bus operation data, select bus apart from getting on the bus the nearest user grouping of website to each website.Select then and expect riding time passenger users the earliest in the user grouping, if bus is estimated the time of arrival bus loading zone point and is later than the expectation riding time of passenger users, then this bus meets the plan by bus of this passenger users, give the scheme processing module 5 of riding with the operation data of this bus and monitor processing, information with this bus sends to SmartClient 6 simultaneously, with notify passenger intelligence by bus scheme generate, and this passenger users is deleted from user grouping.If bus estimates to arrive the expectation riding time of the time of bus loading zone point early than the passenger, and the time interval that differs is when a threshold values scope, then this bus meets the plan by bus of passenger users most, give the scheme processing module 5 of riding with the operation data of this bus and monitor processing, information with this bus sends to SmartClient 6 simultaneously, generates to notify passenger's intelligence scheme of riding.And this passenger users deleted from user grouping.If bus estimate to arrive the expectation riding time of the time of bus loading zone point early than the passenger, and time interval that differs when exceeding the threshold values scope, then bus does not meet planning by bus of passenger, directly the user is deleted from user grouping.Above-mentioned threshold values scope is provided with different threshold values scopes according to departure frequency is different, and for example departure frequency is 15 minutes, and then the threshold values scope is 0 minute to 15 minutes, and departure frequency is 30 minutes, and then the threshold values scope is 0 to 30 minute.Judge that by above-mentioned flow process whether this bus meets the plan by bus of the passenger users in the user grouping, does not have passenger users in user grouping.In user grouping, do not have passenger users, then this user grouping is deleted from user's scope to be selected and judge that by above-mentioned flow process whether this bus meets the by bus plan of the passenger users of next group user grouping, ends up to there being the user to be grouped into.The above-mentioned passenger of the meeting bus of plan by bus is exactly the scheme of riding.
Combination by top dual mode can exhaustively meet passenger's scheme by bus of plan by bus for the passenger generates.
Intelligence by bus scheme has comprised: scheme by bus, realtime running data of bus in the scheme by bus remind the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the data of preparing by bus.What scheme solved by bus is the problem which bus the passenger takes, what by bus the realtime running data of bus solved in the scheme is the problem when passenger takes, and reminding the passenger to go to get on the bus, website carries out that the data prepared by bus realize is exactly the problem when the intelligent reminding passenger rides.This three partial data is the SmartClient 6 that sends to the passenger stage by stage.The sending order of this three partial data is followed successively by, scheme by bus, and realtime running data of bus in the scheme by bus remind the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the data of preparing by bus.To carry out the data of preparing by bus are intelligence cores of scheme by bus to website wherein to remind the passenger to go to get on the bus.To carry out that the data of preparing by bus generate can be also can be at SmartClient at server end to website and remind the passenger to go to get on the bus.
By bus the principle that generates of scheme has been set forth in the above, and the operation data of the above-mentioned bus of scheme generation phase institute foundation by bus and the bus operation data that the passenger is actual when taking bus are uncertain, change.This uncertainty and variability certainly exist, this is can't hold the speed that bus travels accurately when being driven by the bus driver, bus company may carry out temporary scheduling to bus, traffic congestion and traffic lights, commander of traffic police waits a variety of causes and other unpredictable reasons determined.If come might bring by bus two negative results according to the operation data of the bus of scheme generation phase institute foundation by bus, one is that the passenger may treat that for a long time second is that the passenger may miss this bus in that the bus website is first-class.
The variability of the operation data of bus and uncertainty can be brought counter productive, so must there be a module to handle the uncertainty and the variability of the operation data of the bus in the scheme of riding, above-mentioned scheme processing module 5 by bus is exactly to handle this uncertainty and variational module.By bus scheme processing module 5 is to send to passenger's SmartClient 6 with the real-time operation data of this bus in the scheme by bus and according to the real-time reminding data that operation data generated of bus, to reach the purpose that instructs the passenger to ride.Above data all are that scheme processing module 5 sends to passenger's SmartClient 6 automatically on suitable opportunity by bus.Above-mentioned suitable opportunity be bus estimate to arrive the passenger loading website interval greater than time interval that the passenger arrives the website of getting on the bus whenever.Only meet this condition, the passenger can have the sufficient time to reach the website of getting on the bus to carry out the preparation of getting on the bus.When meeting this condition, by bus just will the ride realtime running data of that bus in the scheme of scheme processing module 5 send to passenger's SmartClient 6.By bus scheme processing module 5 can will remind the passenger go to get on the bus website to carry out the SmartClient 6 that the data of preparing by bus send to the passenger timely simultaneously, reminds the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out preparation by bus.
Before the passenger is about to arrive get-off stop, scheme processing module 5 is judged the plan by bus whether having in the works by bus of passenger changed trains or buses automatically by bus, if had according to above-described method for the passenger generates will transfer scheme by bus and transfer to scheme processing module 5 monitoring by bus and handle, if notice SmartClient 6 rolls off the production line not then when bus arrives get-off stop, then intelligence by bus service finish.
The above-mentioned prompting passenger website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the data of preparing by bus, only meets alert condition, and server just can generate reminds the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the data of preparing by bus.Meet and remind the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the condition of preparing by bus and is: estimate the time interval that arrives bus loading zone point when bus and be less than or equal to the time interval and threshold values sum that the passenger estimates to arrive bus loading zone point, by bus scheme processing module 5 is just sent to SmartClient 6 and is reminded the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the data of preparing by bus, and SmartClient 6 is handled data and change into the form of expression that can cause that the passenger notes.The span of above-mentioned threshold values is 1 to 10 minute.If this value is bigger than normal, then the time that need wait for bus of passenger will be elongated.If this value is less than normal, this intelligence riding system before the passenger arrives the website of getting on the bus during this period of time in remind incessantly, guarantee that the passenger can arrive the website of getting on the bus timely and take and meet its bus of plan by bus.By bus scheme processing module 5 also can remind the passenger to get off simultaneously, estimates to arrive passenger's get-off stop time interval during less than a threshold values when bus, will remind the passenger to carry out the preparation of getting off, and this threshold values is between half a minute to one minute.Only meet the condition that this reminds the passenger to get off, scheme processing module 5 is just sent the data of reminding the passenger to get off to client 6 by bus.
SmartClient 6 sends according to scheme processing module 5 by bus reminds passengers that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the data conversion of preparing by bus and become the concrete form of expression, the concrete form of expression comprises vibrations, note, the tinkle of bells, music, character express, figure is realized, mode in conjunction with the GIS map shows that voice or comprehensive multiple mode show.
SmartClient 6 is intelligence why, be its can the passenger need intelligence by bus before the service intelligently, automatically help the passenger to carry out service and prepare.Be implemented as follows: when SmartClient 6 when the passenger does not obtain service, be connected with the server disconnection, but keep operation, judge the passenger at SmartClient and soon need obtain intelligence by bus after the service, set up with intelligent riding system automatically and get in touch and obtain service.SmartClient 6 last once with intelligence by bus service disconnect be connected before, obtained passenger's plan by bus next time, and be kept in the SmartClient 6, then judge and above-mentionedly soon need obtain intelligence by bus the method for service scenario is as follows: when SmartClient 6 monitors the difference in the time interval that time interval that expectation riding time and current time differ and passenger estimate to arrive bus loading zone point less than a threshold values scope, SmartClient 6 is set up to get in touch with intelligent riding system automatically and is obtained intelligence service by bus, and the scope of this threshold values was at 15 minutes to 60 minutes.
As mentioned above, be an embodiment of the present utility model, be not the utility model is done pro forma restriction.Among the embodiment detailed elaboration the intelligence principle of scheme and the possibility of realization by bus in the intelligent riding system, all schemes of riding are the preferred plan that the by bus plan according to passenger oneself calculates automatically, do not need the passenger manually to go to select, the passenger sets after the plan by bus, just can be in time as long as start client software, obtain a scheme of well riding exactly, reduced the time that the passenger waits for bus, also have simultaneously and remind the passenger that the website that goes to get on the bus is carried out the function of preparing by bus automatically, prevent that the passenger from missing the bus that will take, this scheme can effectively solve two problems that the passenger occurs in the process that takes bus.In the assurance of time, introduced the expectation riding time, expectation arrives the get-off stop time, and the passenger estimates to arrive the bus loading zone point time interval and controls.Because passenger's plan by bus has certain stability and periodicity, working clan for example, usually take bus and go to work morning on weekdays, After Hours take bus and go home afternoon, the address of working place and family has stability, and it also is metastable when going to work and coming off duty.Go to work every morning, and After Hours go home afternoon, has periodically.Because passenger's plan by bus has certain stability and periodicity, so the passenger can be provided with and have stability and periodic plan by bus and need not to be provided with repeatedly, so just can realize that the passenger need not to be provided with repeatedly by bus plan, have only interim plan by bus just need be set when the passenger does not want according to the plan by bus of former setting by bus.
The predicted value of the volume of the flow of passengers is as the significant data foundation of bus scheduling, its volume of the flow of passengers be not bus reality the volume of the flow of passengers but to the prediction of the patronage that take bus future, so compare present method, should not have the by bus plan of beguine according to the passenger who collects in advance---the passenger plans to take when several roads bus somewhere and has gone the accurate more method of volume of the flow of passengers predicted value that where these information doped.The plan by bus that how can collect the passenger in advance is the key of problem, because the passenger can not tell the system that can carry out volume of the flow of passengers prediction with the plan by bus of oneself for no reason at all in advance before taking bus at every turn.Having only can be with oneself when by bus plan change into the service of oneself wanting and need not oneself repeatedly operation everyday as the passenger, and passenger's plan by bus could be able to be carried out the system that the volume of the flow of passengers predicts and collect in advance.Above-mentioned intelligent riding system can be finished well and collect the passenger in advance and plan this task by bus.
Just can collect passenger's planning data by bus and the data that intelligent riding system provides service to produce by above-mentioned intelligent riding system.Below set forth volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit 7 in three prediction module be how to carry out the prediction of the volume of the flow of passengers.
Described volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit 7 comprises first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 8, these first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module, 8 input ends are connected with project management system 2 communications of riding, its output terminal is connected with bus scheduling system 9 communications in the bus management system 3, and the data that first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 8 is analyzed are plans by bus of passenger.The Forecasting Methodology of described first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 8 is as follows: formulated effectively plan by bus as m passenger, m is wherein arranged
0Expectation riding time of individual passenger is at t
0～t
1Between then measurable at t
0～t
1Between the passenger flow total amount be m
0Work as m
0In m is arranged
1Certain circuit bus G is taken in individual passenger's expectation, and is then measurable at t
0～t
1Between will take certain circuit bus G the volume of the flow of passengers be m
1m
1In m is arranged
2Individual passenger's the website of getting on the bus is S, and is then measurable at t
0～t
1Between will take certain circuit bus G at website S the volume of the flow of passengers be m
2By the time, the website of getting on the bus, the combination of variety of ways such as circuit can dope the various volumes of the flow of passengers.The volume of the flow of passengers of the prediction by this stage, what bus company can macroscopic view, the rational overall transport power of the bus of arranging, and on the time, the otherness arrangement on the circuit.
Described volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit 7 comprises second volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 10, this second volume of the flow of passengers prediction module, 10 input ends and Subscriber Management System 1, project management system 2 communications connect by bus, its output terminal is connected with bus scheduling system 9 communications in the bus management system 3, second volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 10 is that passenger users signs in on the Subscriber Management System 1, signed in to the plan by bus of the passenger in the intelligent riding system during data analyzed, because SmartClient 6 has been in service state, the passenger can change original plan by bus and interim plan by bus is set, original like this plan was by bus just lost efficacy, this will cause first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module, 8 needs to be predicted again, the predicted value in this stage accurately want high with respect to the phase one.
Its Forecasting Methodology is as follows: as time point t
0, there be n passenger to sign in to the Subscriber Management System 1 of intelligent riding system, n＞0 wherein, the unique identification set that the passenger submits to the website of getting on the bus in the data of server is A={S
0, S
1, S
2..., S
N-1.The unique identification set of get-off stop is S={S
k, S
K+1, S
K+2..., S
K+n-1.Expectation riding time T={T
0, T
1, T
2..., T
N-1.The unique identification set of certain circuit bus that expectation is taken is G={G
0, G
1, G
2..., G
N-1.
By above information, can dope total volume of the flow of passengers is n.
(1), when n is wherein arranged
0The sign of individual passenger's the website of getting on the bus is all for all being S
i, wherein
This can predict website S
iThe volume of the flow of passengers be n
0, 0＜=n wherein
0＜=n.
(2), as n
1It all is G that certain circuit bus sign is taken in the expectation that individual passenger submits to
i, wherein
Then can predict this road bus G
iThe volume of the flow of passengers be n
1, 0＜=n wherein
1＜=n.
(3), when n is wherein arranged
2Expectation riding time of individual passenger is at t
0～t
1Between take bus, then can predict t
0～t
1Between the volume of the flow of passengers of bus be n
2, 0＜=n wherein
2＜=n.
(4), when n is wherein arranged
kExpectation riding time of individual passenger is at t
0～t
1Between and expectation to take certain circuit bus sign all be G
k, then can predict t
0～t
1Between the G that takes bus
kThe volume of the flow of passengers be n
k, 0＜=n wherein
k＜=n.
The volume of the flow of passengers of the prediction by this stage, bus company just can carry out meticulousr scheduling according to the predicted value of the volume of the flow of passengers.
Described volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit 7 comprises that the 3rd volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 11, the three volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 11 input ends are connected with scheme processing module 5 communications by bus, and its output terminal is connected with bus scheduling system 9 communications in the bus management system 3.The prediction of the 3rd volume of the flow of passengers prediction module 11 occurs in by bus, and scheme processing module 5 returns to after the SmartClient 6 intelligent schemes by bus, the scheme by bus that the intelligence riding system is generated during the data analyzed, an important information is arranged promptly in the scheme by bus, Customer information, and the confidence of passenger's certain bus being about to take.The predicted value in this stage can be as accurate as the prediction of the volume of the flow of passengers of concrete certain bus.
At time point t
1, when a bus B among certain circuit bus G was in operation state, server can return take bus all passengers of B of expectation as scheme by bus with the realtime running data of bus B.Specify that the passenger does not comprise in the works by bus that certain bus is taken in expectation but the bus of expecting to take certain circuit, certain bus is included in certain road bus.Do not pass through the processing of intelligent riding system, can't determine that the passenger will take concrete certain bus.According to above result, can dope the following volume of the flow of passengers.
(5), returned to n as the result of scheme by bus when the real-time operation data of bus B
3During individual passenger, the then measurable volume of the flow of passengers of taking this bus B is n
3
(6), work as n
3In n is arranged
4Individual passenger's the website of getting on the bus all is S
jThe time, can predict at website S
jThe volume of the flow of passengers of B of taking bus is n
4
(7), work as n
3In n is arranged
5Individual passenger's get-off stop all is S
kThe time, can predict at website S
kThe volume of the flow of passengers of getting off of bus B is n
5
(8), n is arranged when bus B car when the website of dispatching a car is dispatched a car
6Individual passenger, during passed through website S
b, S
B+1, S
B+2..., S
cArrive website S
mBy method (6) can obtain bus B during each website of process volume of the flow of passengers of getting on the bus be n
B+k, n
B+k+1, n
B+k+2..., n
B+k+c, by method (7) can obtain bus B during each website of process volume of the flow of passengers of getting off be n
b, n
B+1, n
B+2..., n
c, can predict this moment to arrive website S
mBus B on the volume of the flow of passengers be n
6+ n
B+k+ n
B+k+1+ n
B+k+2+ ...+n
B+k+c-n
b-n
B+1-n
B+2-...-n
c
(9), can obtain arrival website S by method (8)
dThe volume of the flow of passengers on the bus is n
7, can obtain at website S by method (6)
dThe volume of the flow of passengers of B of taking bus is n
8, can obtain bus B at website S by method (7)
dThe volume of the flow of passengers of getting off be n
9, then can predict at website S
dThe volume of the flow of passengers of the B that takes bus be n
7-n
8+ n
9
(10), to have certain passenger carrying capacity be Z people to bus itself, the final volume of the flow of passengers of bus can not surpass total passenger carrying capacity of bus, when bus B arrives website S
eThe time, the ridership on the car is n
10, the number of getting off is n
11, can predict that then bus B is at website S
ePassenger carrying capacity Z-n
10+ n
11, promptly bus B is at website S
eThe maximum volume of the flow of passengers of getting on the bus be Z-n
10+ n
11
Having set forth three kinds of Forecasting Methodologies above, is three resulting volume of the flow of passengers Forecasting Methodologies of different phase in fact.These three kinds of volume of the flow of passengers Forecasting Methodologies combination can draw polytype passenger flow forecast amount.
Compare with the current immediate scheme of formerly riding, described whole feature can calculating of intelligence meet passenger's scheme by bus of plan by bus, the in use required operation of passenger seldom, simultaneously can help the passenger to hold riding time, reduce the time that the passenger waits for bus, reduce the probability that misses bus.Whole features of described volume of the flow of passengers Forecasting Methodology can be predicted bus passenger flow volume, and can dope each road bus, the volume of the flow of passengers of each bus, the volume of the flow of passengers of website, each bus is in the volume of the flow of passengers of certain time, and bus is at the passenger carrying capacity of certain website.The volume of the flow of passengers of this prediction and passenger carrying capacity life period advanced has scientific basis.When radix is big more, the degree of accuracy of its prediction is high more.It is complementary that intelligence in the intelligence riding system is ridden between scheme and the volume of the flow of passengers Forecasting Methodology, intelligent scheme by bus provides original data for the Forecasting Methodology of the volume of the flow of passengers, conversely, the volume of the flow of passengers of volume of the flow of passengers Forecasting Methodology prediction provides the data support for the bus rational management, and the data of the rational management of bus can help the intelligence scheme of riding to provide better service to the passenger.The comprehensive enforcement of intelligent scheme by bus and volume of the flow of passengers Forecasting Methodology can provide good solution for the passenger takes bus, and can help bus company rational management again simultaneously, and reducing cost provides the data support.It is moving with car that the comprehensive enforcement of two schemes will produce the people, the beneficial effect that car moves with the people.When the volume of the flow of passengers is very big, a bus can't satisfy passenger's trip requirements, then can dispatch the driving situation of next bus, realize that car is moving with the people, when the volume of the flow of passengers was disperseed relatively, the stroke of then dispatching bus can satisfy more passengers' demand by bus, realizes that the people is moving with car.
The foregoing description is the utility model preferred implementation; but embodiment of the present utility model is not restricted to the described embodiments; other any do not deviate from change, the modification done under spirit of the present utility model and the principle, substitutes, combination, simplify; all should be the substitute mode of equivalence, be included within the protection domain of the present utility model.
Claims (5)
1. one kind can generate the also intelligent riding system of energy passenger flow forecast amount of the scheme of riding, it is characterized in that, comprise Subscriber Management System (1), the by bus project management system (2) that communicates to connect with Subscriber Management System (1), the bus management system (3) that is connected with project management system (2) communication of riding, the by bus scheme processing module (5) that communicates to connect with bus management system (3), described scheme processing module (5) by bus is connected with SmartClient (6), Subscriber Management System (1) communication, also comprises at least one volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit (7).
2. the intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit (7) comprises first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module (8), this first volume of the flow of passengers prediction module (8) input end is connected with project management system (2) communication by bus, and its output terminal is connected with bus scheduling system (9) communication in the bus management system (3).
3. the intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterized in that, described volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit (7) comprises second volume of the flow of passengers prediction module (10), this second volume of the flow of passengers prediction module (10) input end and family management system (1), project management system (2) communication is connected by bus, and its output terminal is connected with bus scheduling system (9) communication in the bus management system (3).
4. according to described scheme by bus and the intelligent riding system that can the passenger flow forecast amount of generating of each of claim 1 to 3, it is characterized in that, described volume of the flow of passengers prediction unit (7) comprises the 3rd volume of the flow of passengers prediction module (11), the 3rd volume of the flow of passengers prediction module (11) input end is connected with scheme processing module (5) communication by bus, and its output terminal is connected with bus scheduling system (9) communication in the bus management system (3).
5. the intelligent riding system that generates the scheme of riding and energy passenger flow forecast amount according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described bus management system (3) comprises the scheme processing module (5) by bus that is connected with bus management system (3) communication, car-mounted terminal is installed on motorbus, and the gps system in this car-mounted terminal is responsible for the geography information reception that bus is real-time and is sent in the bus management system (3) handling.
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|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011201540988U CN202067328U (en) | 2011-05-14 | 2011-05-14 | Intelligent bus riding system capable of generating bus riding scheme and predicting passenger flow volume |
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| CN2011201540988U CN202067328U (en) | 2011-05-14 | 2011-05-14 | Intelligent bus riding system capable of generating bus riding scheme and predicting passenger flow volume |
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| CN202067328U true CN202067328U (en) | 2011-12-07 |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102324122A (en) * | 2011-05-14 | 2012-01-18 | 刘宇 | Can generate the intelligent riding system of the scheme of riding and ability passenger flow forecast amount |
| CN105095993A (en) * | 2015-07-22 | 2015-11-25 | 济南市市政工程设计研究院（集团）有限责任公司 | System and method for predicting passenger flow volume of railway stations |
| CN110570656A (en) * | 2019-09-20 | 2019-12-13 | 深圳市综合交通运行指挥中心 | Method and device for customizing public transport line |
-
2011
- 2011-05-14 CN CN2011201540988U patent/CN202067328U/en not_active Expired - Fee Related
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102324122A (en) * | 2011-05-14 | 2012-01-18 | 刘宇 | Can generate the intelligent riding system of the scheme of riding and ability passenger flow forecast amount |
| CN102324122B (en) * | 2011-05-14 | 2014-01-29 | 刘宇 | Intelligent riding system which can generate riding scheme and predict passenger flow |
| CN105095993A (en) * | 2015-07-22 | 2015-11-25 | 济南市市政工程设计研究院（集团）有限责任公司 | System and method for predicting passenger flow volume of railway stations |
| CN110570656A (en) * | 2019-09-20 | 2019-12-13 | 深圳市综合交通运行指挥中心 | Method and device for customizing public transport line |
| CN110570656B (en) * | 2019-09-20 | 2022-03-25 | 深圳市综合交通运行指挥中心 | Method and device for customizing public transport line |
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