CN1191978A - Short-term earthquake predication using satellite IR system to measure abnormal temperature raising - Google Patents
Short-term earthquake predication using satellite IR system to measure abnormal temperature raising Download PDFInfo
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- CN1191978A CN1191978A CN97100774A CN97100774A CN1191978A CN 1191978 A CN1191978 A CN 1191978A CN 97100774 A CN97100774 A CN 97100774A CN 97100774 A CN97100774 A CN 97100774A CN 1191978 A CN1191978 A CN 1191978A
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Abstract
The present invention utilizes polar orbit satellite, stationary satellite and other satellite carrying IR scanner as well as satellite receiving equipment and image processing equipment and their IR images. Through atmosphere model correction of the grey scale obtained by the scanner, actural temperature distribution is obtained. By distinguishing the earthquake temperature rise from meteorological temperature rise according to landform and air mass state and eliminating various interference data, the present invention can raise the accuracy of short-term earthquake predication to 50%.
Description
The present invention relates to a kind ofly do earthquake short forecasting with the satellite thermal infrared abnormal temperature raising, exactly is the short forecasting method of doing medium and strong earthquake three elements (origin time, place and earthquake magnitude).The invention belongs to the seismology field.
Earthquake prediction, particularly short forecasting is world today's a great problem, all is in the exploratory stage both at home and abroad, make slow progress recent decades.All forecast in research as states such as Japan, the U.S., Russia, Greece China and countries in the world, predict the then statistical methods that belong to of earthquake with the seismology method more, because the bifurcated and the chaos phenomenon of rock burst, make analytical work be absorbed in the state of not knowing, and with geophysics and geochemical method are studied shake million now, hard to tell whether it is true or false as a rule, cause false declaration easily.This tradition adopts the monitoring of platform net exception information to be carried out the method for comprehensive forecasting and probability statistics forecast, because the platform net is rare, quantity of information is few, disturb and difficultly get rid of, requirement that transmission system does not satisfy earthquake short forecasting, add the limitation on area and/or national boundaries, and make earthquake prediction not too accurate, general success ratio only reaches 20～30%, and the success ratio of short forecasting then only is 10%.The inventor begins test 1989.10, did to forecast for several times on the basis of all succeeding, in 1990.03.15 the Chinese patent application case CN90101272.6 (this patent is authorized in 1992.07.01) that portion is entitled as " doing the impending earthquake forecast with satellite thermal infrared anomaly " is proposed, from then on this difficult problem of forecasting earthquake a brand-brand-new way and method have been started, mainly be to utilize U.S.'s promise Ah polar-orbiting satellite and the Japanese sunflower geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS) that is loaded with the infrared band scanner this moment, track of wherein polar-orbiting satellite scan area is wide 2800 kilometers, length can reach thousands of kilometers, and but stationary satellite one width of cloth weather chart area coverage reaches 6000 * 10000 square kilometres, and this satellite scanning image just can obtain in 1 hour.Wherein NOAA can be surveyed relative temperature (bright temperature), and the sunflower satellite is same, the former temperature (bright temperature) resolution is up to 0.5 ℃, and the latter's time resolution height, the bright temperature temperature anomaly that therefore will record changes and the contrast quantitative Analysis of carrying out temperature anomaly with time absolute temperature, just can promptly and accurately grasp the Dynamic Evolution Characteristics of ground, water surface temperature.Since provide via satellite thermal infrared data have accurately and reliably, topped wide, contain much information and advantage such as transmission speed is fast, make the success ratio of its forecast that breakthrough raising be arranged, in other words, this patent drops into current satellite remote sensing thermal infrared technology to earth observation, by Geographic Information System and computer run, bulk information is gathered for people analyzes use, capture the sudden abnormal temperature raising on the earth and the formed earth of the atmosphere coupling interface, this phenomenon is different from general weather abnormal temperature raising, but treats as earthquake precursors.Satellite thermal ir temperature increase anomaly and earthquake have close cause-effect relationship, and the line cloud and the middle meteorologies such as cloudless " passage of heats " that occurs of cloud line that can be observed this moment on the active breaking belt shake million.Statistics shows, adopts this method can make the success ratio of impending earthquake forecast reach 50%.However, on the determining of three earthquake parameter, still there are many deficiencies: for example determine to treat further to reduce the scope on the epicentral location; Wait on the development time to be accurate to and be divided into short-term and close on two types; Further explore and get rid of the disturbing factor of influence forecast, make the scope of application of this technology expand other area, the world to.
The objective of the invention is to make this method of making earthquake short forecasting of the satellite thermal infrared abnormal temperature raising, further improve its forecast success ratio, particularly dwindle its epicentral location scope, accurately origin time is divided into short-term and closes on two scopes, the disturbing factor of further getting rid of the influence forecast, and make its scope of application expand other area, the world to, so that alleviate the harm of earthquake to the full extent to the mankind.
The technical measures of implementing above-mentioned purpose of the present invention and taking are as described below: to the color density slicing retaining of satellite thermal infrared cloud atlas, its color retaining can all be suitable for Various Seasonal, different latitude area, is easy to capture satellite thermal infrared abnormal temperature raising omen.Wherein color retaining is that bright temperature retaining is inferior can be between 0.5 ° of K to 5 ° of K, for example divide to block in bright temperature and separate with N10 ° to 35 ° to the north of in the of N40 °, every retaining time temperature value is 2 ° to 3 ° K, then divide retaining to the north of in the of N40 ° with 1 ° of K, and under the line area (Indonesia and other places) and in the arctic regions (ground such as New Zealand, Iceland) every retaining time temperature value is respectively 0.5 ° of K to 5 ° of K.And summer with can adopt winter different bright temperature to divide the retaining retaining.Scanner gained gray-scale value can be proofreaied and correct through Atmospheric models and obtain actual temperature value, and according to the various places actual conditions, takes to add and subtract the conversion of 1 ° of K.Distinguishing seimic heating according to gentle form of landform still is that meteorological process heats, exclude the interfere information that landform, weather conditions cause, for example whether cross over the different terrain geomorphic unit in 12 to 18 o'clock every days (universal time) according to the thermal anomaly form, if be earthquake precursors then, otherwise be exactly due to the weather conditions.
The method that the present invention proposes forecast more than 5 grades earthquake 62 times altogether from the end of the year in October, 1989 to 1996, wherein 30 times comparatively successful, i.e. the forecast of time, place and earthquake magnitude is all comparatively accurate.Sum up earthquake precursors satellite thermal ir temperature increase anomaly characteristic and development law thereof relation thus to the three earthquake parameter short forecasting:
(1) time: earthquake appearance in 10 to more than 20 days before shake more than 5 grades, heat area and can reach 100,000 to 600,000 square kilometres, if in the big area of lithosphere thickness, earthquake phenomenon can occur heating in preceding about 30-120 days more than 5 grades.
(2) place: promptly two types can be divided in the epicentral location, and thermal anomaly appears in following earthquake centre of the first and periphery simultaneously thereof, peripheral subsequently abnormal temperature raising is constantly expansion significantly, and kataseism is close, and latter two thermal anomaly couples together, and the edge of the temperature anomaly of working direction is following earthquake centre.Another type is peripheral abnormal temperature raising, and along with advancing near the time kataseism, it is following earthquake centre that its working direction heats district and structural belt or the pleistoseismic zone position that crosses.
(3) earthquake magnitude: 5 grades of left and right sides earthquakes heat more than 10 ten thousand square kilometres of areas, and 6 grades of left and right sides earthquakes heat more than 40 ten thousand square kilometres of areas, and to heat area then be more than 600,000 or hundred ten thousand square kilometres in earthquake more than 7 grades.
Illustrative example explanation is now done comparatively case of successful of earthquake short forecasting with the method for the invention, for example:
On April 16th, 1992, (shaking preceding 4 days) east northeast occurred to the abnormal temperature raising band at the island of Taiwan northeast side marine site Okinawa trough, and to April 17 (shaking preceding 3 days), abnormal temperature raising reaches south sea area southwester and enlarges, crossed over the wounded in the battle lotus of east of Taiwan macroseism area abroad this moment, done the three earthquake parameter short forecasting, 6.8 grades of earthquakes promptly take place in (April 20) in fact to have spent three days for this reason.
Near 7.5 grades of earthquakes the November 22 nineteen ninety-five Aqaba, Jordan gulf are shaken and were once occurred the upright abnormal temperature raising of arc in preceding 10 days in the Ya Kaba gulf and near the land, north side.Prove that once more this secondary earthquake also has satellite thermal infrared abnormal temperature raising omen.
After 4 grades of earthquakes take place in Koryo, Shunyi, Beijing on the 16th Dec in 1996 battalion, soon took now near East and West direction abnormal temperature raising in succession again out of on Dec 20,21 to Yanqing, Beijing one in Changli, Hebei, but area is little, have only several ten thousand square kilometres, we had negated the possibility that the Beijing area has earthquake more than 5 grades recently in view of the above at that time, be stable society, the stable popular feelings is contributed.
Claims (2)
1. method of making earthquake short forecasting of the satellite thermal infrared abnormal temperature raising, mainly utilize polar-orbiting satellite, stationary satellite this moment, and be loaded with the satellite of infrared band scanner in conjunction with other, also comprise satellite receiving equipment and image processing facility, it is characterized in that, color density slicing retaining to the satellite thermal infrared cloud atlas, its color retaining can all be suitable for Various Seasonal, different latitude area, be easy to catch satellite thermal infrared abnormal temperature raising omen, wherein the color retaining is that bright temperature retaining is inferior between 0.5 ° of K to 5 ° of K; Scanner gained gray-scale value can be proofreaied and correct through Atmospheric models and obtain actual temperature value, and according to the various places actual conditions, takes to add and subtract 1 ° of K and calculate; Distinguish according to gentle form of landform and seimicly to heat still that meteorological process heats, exclude the interfere information that landform, weather conditions cause; Sum up earthquake precursors satellite thermal ir temperature increase anomaly characteristic and development law thereof relation thus to the three earthquake parameter short forecasting:
(1) time: earthquake appearance in 10 to more than 20 days before shake more than 5 grades, heat area and can reach 100,000 to 600,000 square kilometres, phenomenon then appears heating in the area that lithosphere thickness is big about 30-120 days before shake;
(2) place: promptly two types can be divided in the epicentral location, following earthquake centre of the first and periphery thereof, thermal anomaly appears simultaneously, peripheral subsequently abnormal temperature raising is constantly expansion significantly, and kataseism is close, and latter two thermal anomaly couples together, the edge of the temperature anomaly of working direction is following earthquake centre, another type is peripheral abnormal temperature raising, and along with advancing near the time kataseism, it is following earthquake centre that its working direction heats district and structural belt or the pleistoseismic zone position that crosses;
(3) earthquake magnitude: 5 grades of left and right sides earthquakes heat more than 10 ten thousand square kilometres of areas, and 6 grades of left and right sides earthquakes heat more than 40 ten thousand square kilometres of areas, and to heat area then be more than 600,000 or hundred ten thousand square kilometres in earthquake more than 7 grades.
2. by the described forecasting procedure of claim 1, it is characterized in that it is what separate that described bright temperature is divided to the north of N40 ° on the retaining with N10 ° to 35 °, every retaining time temperature value is 2 ° to 3 ° K, then keeps off with 1 ° of K branch to the north of in the of N40 °.And under the line area (Indonesia and other places) and in the arctic regions (New Zealand, ground such as Iceland) every retaining time temperature value is respectively 0.5 ° of K to 5 ° of K.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN97100774A CN1191978A (en) | 1997-02-25 | 1997-02-25 | Short-term earthquake predication using satellite IR system to measure abnormal temperature raising |
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| CN97100774A CN1191978A (en) | 1997-02-25 | 1997-02-25 | Short-term earthquake predication using satellite IR system to measure abnormal temperature raising |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2011116537A1 (en) * | 2010-03-25 | 2011-09-29 | Qiang Zuji | Satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomaly method for short-term and impending prediction of strong earthquakes |
| CN107045140A (en) * | 2017-02-22 | 2017-08-15 | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 | The Di-qi map of earthquake prediction |
| CN107356969A (en) * | 2017-09-06 | 2017-11-17 | 四川易利数字城市科技有限公司 | A kind of seismic precursor analysis method based on satellite thermal infrared data and GIS |
-
1997
- 1997-02-25 CN CN97100774A patent/CN1191978A/en active Pending
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2011116537A1 (en) * | 2010-03-25 | 2011-09-29 | Qiang Zuji | Satellite thermal infrared brightness temperature anomaly method for short-term and impending prediction of strong earthquakes |
| CN107045140A (en) * | 2017-02-22 | 2017-08-15 | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 | The Di-qi map of earthquake prediction |
| CN107356969A (en) * | 2017-09-06 | 2017-11-17 | 四川易利数字城市科技有限公司 | A kind of seismic precursor analysis method based on satellite thermal infrared data and GIS |
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