CN107045140A - The Di-qi map of earthquake prediction - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of Di-qi map of earthquake prediction, this method comprises the following steps：(1) national each weather station 3.2m monthly average ground temperature data and monthly total precipitation data are obtained from China Meteorological Administration website；(2) whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, 3.2m ground temperature anomaly month border alternating temperature distribution map and monthly precipitation anomaly percentage distribution figure are made；(3) using national monthly precipitation anomaly percentage distribution figure, the region for determining Precipitation anonaly percentage to bear, that is, partially dry region；(4), using whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, it is positive region to determine ground temperature anomaly；(5) the amount class region of above-mentioned determination is utilized, their overlapping region, that is, xeothermic exceptions area is determined；(6) the time-evolution of each xeothermic exceptions area is followed the trail of, maximum dry heat anomaly time and region is determined；(7) China is divided into the east of 105 ° of longitude two regions with to the west of and carries out strong earthquake prediction by tectonic stress trilogy respectively.The present invention has the advantages that rational scientific basic, forecast accuracy height, method are easily grasped.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Di-qi map in seismic prediction technique field, more particularly to earthquake prediction.
Background technology
Earthquake, as a kind of geological phenomenon, is a kind of special shape for characterizing crustal movement, and its activity is frequent, destructive power
By force, influence power is big, and most effective, the most economical means of earthquake disaster mitigation are that earthquake is accurately predicted.But, to enter
The accurate earthquake prediction of row, must just recognize the reason for earthquake formation, the mechanism occurred and seismic precursor are formed.Early in 2700
Preceding Western Zhou period, China great thinker of the past just once explores the origin cause of formation of earthquake,《On all languages of national language》Record：" Yang Fu and can not go out, cloudy compel
And can not steam, then have earthquake ".To the origin cause of formation of earthquake, there are many hypothesis in theory in the world, it is especially big with san francisco, usa in 1906
After earthquake, American scholar Reid H. F. proposed " elastic rebound hypothesis " in 1910, carried out breeding and occurring for explanation of seismic
Journey（Reid H F. 1910. The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. Volume II.
The Mechanics of the Earthquake[M] //Washington DC: Carnegie Institution of
Washington, Publication, （87）: 1-192.）, this is the historical milestone formula mark of seismology, but the vacation
Say and be disadvantageous in that the process that earthquake occurs is limited only to lithosphere, and do not account for deep fluid and earthquake is sent out
Raw effect.
Since 20th century, earthquake is carried out in the world widely studied, but be due to the impenetrability of earth interior, over the ground
Shake the mechanism occurred unclear.Also there is very big difference between the earthquake scientific and technological progress in past more than 40 years and earthquake prediction demand
Away from.
At present, seismicity pattern is a kind of earthquake prediction method with the most use.Why with much, reason is this
Individual method is simple and clear, and reliable seismicity data is almost available anywhere the clear husband (Mogi, 1985) of cyclopentadienyl wood
Propose, a violent earthquake is followed of the aftershock that frequency is gradually decreased with the time, followed by long-term quiet period is (tranquil for the first time
Phase), be successively after this quiet period：Non- zone of fracture seismicity increase, mid-term quiet period (second of quiet period), foreshock is lived
The dynamic phase, short-term quiet period (third time quiet period), is finally violent earthquake.Here it is " the luxuriant timber form " of seismicity pattern.
A series of example that the luxuriant clear husband (Mogi, 1985) of wood described seismicity patterns is thought down to many people can be simply
The stage that violent earthquake samsara is developed is confirmed with the seismicity pattern described by him, so as to predict an earthquake.Japan
Ohtake etc. (1977,1981) had once successfully forecast the southern Oaxaca (Oaxaca) of Mexico in 1978 using luxuriant timber form
M7.7 earthquakes.But, also it is believed that this is the success on one-time surface, because having some big ground in the whole world in 1967
Shake platform net decommission cause global earthquakes record general status there occurs great change, it follows that seismicity
The authenticity for the omen that image is reflected has been complicated (Habermann, 1988).In particular, in actual hair
In raw Earthquake example, any one stage described by luxuriant timber form is likely to missing；And not yet have consistent generally acknowledged
, can objectively be used discriminating each stage definition；In addition, not carried out so far to luxuriant timber form yet comprehensive
Examine.
In terms of seismicity pattern research, in addition to " luxuriant timber form " is the method for the clear husband of luxuriant wood, other researchers
It also proposed some different analysis methods.For example, considering Space Time-strong three elements of earthquake simultaneously has different weight effects
" Region-Time-Length method " (Region-Time-Length methods, abbreviation RTL methods) (Sobolev, 1991,
1997, 1999, 2001, 2002; Huang et al., 1995, 2002, 2008)；Based on complication system statistical mechanics
Seismic physical forecast model " image information method " (Pattern Informatics methods, abbreviation PI methods)
(Rundle et al., 2000, 2003; Chen et al., 2005)；For comparing in a certain area, certain time period
The average rate of change of interior seismicity and the overall average rate of change of this area's seismicity are to detect before violent earthquake near earthquake
The possible Anomaly quiescence phase of the seismicity in area, and by with other it is all can in random time and random place
The seismicity rate of change that can occur, which is reduced, to be compared, and estimates " the Z- values method " of the statistical significance of this " quiet period "
(Wyss and Habermann, 1998)；Lived by measuring in a given 3-dimensional space with microseism on the given time " point "
Dynamic overlapping degree is to detect " the microseism weight of space bunching, seismic activity high-incidence season and the seismically quiet period of microseismicity
Folded method " (SEISMic OverLAPing methods, abbreviation SEISMOLAP methods) (Zshau, 1995) etc..The studies above person transports
The anomalous variation of seismicity is detected in some earthquake case research with these methods.
Once internationally famous Geophysicist Ke Yilisi-Boluo gram (К e й л и с-Б o р o к of chairman IUGG were appointed
В И) and its Russia colleague based on analysis to " earthquake stream " characteristic, it is proposed that one kind is referred to as macroseism and occurs " probability increase
Time "（Also known as the time of probability " increase ", Time of Increased Probability are abbreviated as TIP) mid-term
Forecasting Methodology, image recognition is carried out with computer, to identify the coming preceding information (Keilis-Borok of violent earthquake
et al., 1988, 1990, 2004; Healy et al., 1992; Kossobokov et al., 1990, 1999)。
They, which propose, designs " M8 algorithms " for global more than the 8 grades violent earthquakes of prediction and be to predict California, USA
(California) and the state of Nevada (Nevada) earthquake and design " CN algorithms ".They give in advance in seismically active zone
Earthquake catalogue is scanned in fixed scope (circle).Find the changing of earthquake incidence, it is the changing of big small earthquake ratio, remaining
Shake the mobility and duration and the various marks that can be used as diagnosis of sequence.They report, in the future of their predictions
Significant success may be achieved in those scopes (circle) of earthquake occurrence by comparing.From 1999, they are right
Threshold value isM7.5 andMThe real-time estimate of 6 months in advance is done in 8.0 earthquake.With this method, Ke Yilisi-Boluo gram and its
September in 2003 occurs in Hokkaido, Japan colleague on the 25thMIn December, 2003 in the middle part of 8.1 violent earthquakes and California
Holy simon (San Simeon) on the 22ndM6.5 earthquake is made that forecast before shake, and achieves successfully (Keilis-Borok
and Shebalin, 2003; Shebalin, 2006).Particularly, forecast holy simon earthquake, it is entitled " on California rock
The report of the present situation of layer " is 6 months before the earthquake, i.e., to submit to one 2003 on June 21, and be made up of famous scientist
Expert group.CN algorithms are also used in other such as Italian regional earthquake predictions and achieve effect (Peresan et
al., 1999)。
Although Ke Yilisi-Boluo gram has lofty academic standing in the world, reputation is prosperous, and he is same with his Russia
The algorithm that thing is proposed also is considerably successful, and moreover, the algorithm is also applied to stock market by others and predicted or even total
The prediction and obtaining of general election of uniting more huge must succeed.But have no need for reticence, the future that they are predicted may earthquake occurrence
Scope all too it is big, its linear-scale is about the 5 ~ 10 of the rupture length for the violent earthquake that may occur in forecast future
Times；Importantly, the algorithm is mainly according to the empirical algorithms that regression statistical analysis is done to earthquake catalogue, to examining for being used
The physical significance of disconnected function and its analysis and discussion deep with the relation shortage of Seismogenic Process.
Earthquake be underground heat move process, be dynamic and have certain spatial and temporal scales.Earthquake prediction method quality it is direct and
Simple criterion is exactly predictablity rate.More than existing medium-term earthquake earthquake prediction method only with single-point geophysical information when
Between development law give a forecast, for the evolution process of earth system（The earth is coupled with air）With the relationship of earthquake not
It is enough, cause predictablity rate to never have fine performance.There are some researches show earthquake and meteorological field have good corresponding relation, and
Earthquake is that underground heat moves reflection of the process in earth's surface again.
In recent years, the relation of going deep into research, the deep earth fluids and the origin of earthquake makes remarkable progress（Zhang You
Join the deep fluids of 2011. and the origin of earthquake [J] seismic studies, 34 (2): 239-245.）.Deep fluid is being migrated upwards
During, there is the dynamic performance of significant heat in earth's surface, the dynamic performance of these heat is the process of earthquake preparation（Tang M C, Gao X
Q. 1997a. Some statistic characteristics of "Underground Hot Vortex" in China
during 1980-1993(II)---Statistic correlation between "Underground Hot Vortex"
and earthquake [J]. Science in China (Series D), 40(6): 569-576.）.By to earth's surface
The dynamic process of heat and its follow of influence, can the speculatively lower dynamic process of heat, these processes of statistical analysis search out earthquake
The precursor information bred, can be that origin of earthquake mechanism and earthquake prediction provide important information.
Table 1 is some basic parameters of each ring layer of earth system（Peng Gong Ping etc., 1983）, the gas in earth system（Air
Circle）, liquid（Hydrosphere）, it is solid（Geosphere）The ratio between thermal capacity of three is 1 ︰ 103︰ 106（The ratio between gross mass that gas, liquid, solid three are enclosed is about
Also it is 1 ︰ 103︰ 106）, i other words in the quality and thermal capacity of earth system, atmospheric thermodynamics only accounts for hundred a ten thousandths, seawater is accounted for
One thousandth.The earth's crust and its following solid portion account for more than the 99.9% of whole earth mass of system and thermal capacity.Therefore on ground
In ball system it is prevailing should be between geosphere, earth layers all correlative coupling effects play a decisive role be ground
Circle.
The basic parameter of each ring layer of the earth system of table 1
Note：1. it is homogeneous atmosphere thickness, is 3. the earth's crust 2. to spread out to the average thickness of whole earth surface（22km）Plus ground
Curtain cap rock（55km）Sum, 4. outer mantle include low velocity layer (LVL)（140km）And transition zone（450km）, 5. using air thermal capacity as 1 it
Than.
Earth interior has earth mantle, three ring layers of outer core and kernel, and wherein outer core is fluid, and its quality accounts for the total matter of earth system
More than the 1/3 of amount（Teng Jiwen, 2003）, the coefficient of viscosity is similar with water.Meanwhile, outer core or a Reynolds number be up to 3 ×
108, 4 magnitudes bigger than troposphere air, are a kind of heat-flash power convective instability bodies, often have Benard convection current bubble from interior outer core
Border is risen, and the thickness through outer core about 2200km is accelerated.The rate of climb of Benard convection current bubble is geophysics
In an important parameter, have no that someone carried out estimation.
Zhang Guodong proposes that the Crack cause of time-latitude residual is the result of ground water movement（Zhang Guodong, 1981）.Whole hydrosphere
Proportion is less than 1% in earth system, and underground water proportion is smaller.Cause obvious time-latitude residual, it is necessary to have more
The fluid motion of big quality is only possible to produce.And the motion for there was only outer core in earth system is only possible to play the part of this role.Macroseism
Before, the maximum and a minimum of a time-latitude residual can be always recorded successively in the observatory of Damage Epicenter, this two
The time interval of extreme value is typically maintained in 3-5 months（Du Pinren etc., 1989）.Before and after such as in July, 1976 Tangshan Earthquake, Beijing
Observatory recorded time-latitude residual minimum and appear in the first tenday period of a month in May, and maximum appears in late July, and both are differed about more than 80 day.
According to the imagination of outer core convection current, a Benard convection current bubble begins to ramp up arrival core-mantle boundary from inside and outside nuclear boundary,
The distance for again returning to inside and outside nuclear boundary is H × 2+L, and wherein H is outer core thickness（About 2200km）, L is rising point to sinking
The distance of point（About 1000km）（Tang et al., 1997b）.Then, the average speed of outer core convection current is 5400km/
90day≈0.6m/s.When in view of outer core Benard convection current being outer nuclear boundary including a kind of accelerated motion, original state, speed
It is almost nil, the above at least is twice than average speed to its speed during core-mantle boundary, therefore can consider that outer core convection velocity exists
Core-mantle boundary is nearby up to more than 1m/s, this speed than plate motion（10-1m/a≈10-8m/s）Fast 8 magnitudes are wanted, it should
This is the earth interior most fast motion of matter.Outer core convection current rises body necessarily to earth mantle thereon, earth's crust formation jacking.From outer core
Property and quality in earth system understand that outer core is the maximum circle of activation energy in each ring layer of earth system than us
Layer, earthquake（Macroseism）The origin cause of formation be unable to do without outer core activity.
It is existing a large amount of on ground temperature（Or underground heat）With the research of Abnormal Precipitation（Hu Zeyong, 1994；Tang Maocang etc., 2005a；
Tang Maocang etc., 1990；Zhang Yongjun etc., 2005;Tang Maocang etc., 1986）, still, earthquake, Temperature Field and precipitation three are contacted
Come, the work of relation is few between system consideration three.
The research that applicant is coupled by nearly 30 years ground vapour, it is found that underground heat moves process and climate change is in close relations, and
" ground vapour figure " method of the Short-term Climate Forecast of proposition is used in the work of national climatic prediction, acquired achievement causes
It is believed that climate change is reflection of each subsystem interaction of earth system in atmospheric thermodynamics.Naturally, underground heat activity with
Coupled configuration one between air surely reflects that underground heat moves process.The information of earthquake for moving processes result as underground heat should
This exists in the air when ground vapour is coupled.Applicant is counting Temperature Field and precipitation before each violent earthquake of Past 30 Years occurs
Certain law is found that after field Spatio-Temporal Change Characteristics and the relation of earthquake, and is verified after the reliability of these rules, it is proposed that this
Invention.
The content of the invention
The technical problems to be solved by the invention are to provide a kind of Di-qi map of easy-to-use earthquake prediction.
To solve the above problems, the Di-qi map of earthquake prediction of the present invention, comprises the following steps：
(1) national each weather station 3.2m monthly average ground temperature data and monthly total precipitation data are obtained from China Meteorological Administration website；
(2) whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, 3.2m ground temperature anomaly month border alternating temperature are madeDistribution map and the moon precipitation away from
Flat percentageDistribution map；
(3) using national monthly precipitation anomaly percentage distribution figure, the region for determining Precipitation anonaly percentage to bear, that is, it is partially dry
Region；
(4), using whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, it is positive region to determine ground temperature anomaly；
(5) the amount class region of above-mentioned determination is utilized, their overlapping region, that is, xeothermic exceptions area is determined；
(6) the time-evolution of each xeothermic exceptions area is followed the trail of, maximum dry heat anomaly time and region is determined；
(7) China is divided into the east of 105 ° of longitude two regions with to the west of and carries out area Ms to the west of 105 ° of E by tectonic stress trilogy respectively
Regional Ms >=5.7 grade strong earthquake prediction to the east of >=6.9 grades of strong earthquake predictions, 105 ° of E.
The step (7) in the west of 105 ° of E regional Ms >=6.9 grade strong earthquake prediction method refer to the 1. tectonic stress first step：By hair shake
Average departure maximum xeothermic area month in month is 8 months average times as a macroseism tectonic stress；2. tectonic stress second step：Strain
Ripple wavelength starts to reduce, and places lunate tail earthquake is entered when less than 1000km；3. the step of tectonic stress the 3rd：It should die down and stop, i.e.,Figure
On wavelength is elongated or warp-wise fluctuation disappears, only remaining broadwise ripple；4. Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude is calculated according to following formula：, whereinMsFor earthquake magnitude,For maximum xeothermic area, unit is 106km2；5. it is maximum according to xeothermic area
The Precipitation anonaly percentage of the moonDistribution map marks quasi- broadwiseMinimum band, i.e., most dry band, the most dry band latitude conduct
The predicted value of earthquake centre latitude forecast；Simultaneously after the strain wave minimal wave length month of the step of tectonic stress the 3rd occurs, minimal wave length correspondence
Ripple where longitude as earthquake centre longitude predicted value.
The step (7) in the east of 105 ° of E regional Ms >=5.7 grade strong earthquake prediction method refer to the I tectonic stress first step：By hair shake
Average departure maximum xeothermic area month in month is 6 months average times as a macroseism tectonic stress；II tectonic stress second step：It is xeothermic
Several months after the area most big moon occurs, in the moon border alternating temperature of 3.2m ground temperature anomalyFigure withOccurs quasi- warp-wise on figure
Fluctuation；The step of III tectonic stress the 3rd：Strain wave is weak to stop, i.e.,Wavelength on figure is elongated or warp-wise fluctuation disappears, only remaining broadwise ripple；
IV calculates Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude according to following formula：, whereinMsFor earthquake magnitude,For maximum xeothermic area, unit
For 106km2；V is according to the Precipitation anonaly percentage of the xeothermic area most big moonDistribution map marks quasi- broadwiseIt is minimum
Band, i.e., most dry band, the most dry predicted value forecast with latitude as earthquake centre latitude；Simultaneously most it is dry take most do, i.e.,
The longitude of negative value maximum point as following earthquake centre longitude predicted value.
The present invention has advantages below compared with prior art：
1st, the scientific thought of the invention based on earth system, extracts information of earthquake from the angle of ground vapour coupling, counts
To the east of 105 ° of China's longitude and to the west of regional macroseism occur before Temperature Field and precipitation field variation characteristic, summed up ground vapour
" the tectonic stress trilogy " of coupling.Through history data test, it is respectively to the prediction error of three earthquake parameter：Earthquake magnitude ± 0.3, latitude
± 1 °, longitude ± 2 °, time ± 2 month.Compared with existing Medium-term Earthquake Prediction technology, the present invention have rational scientific basic,
The advantage that forecast accuracy is high, method is easily grasped.
2nd, present invention data used is China Meteorological Administration's open source information, can be obtained in real time, therefore simple and easy to do.
Embodiment
The Di-qi map of earthquake prediction, comprises the following steps：
(1) national each weather station 3.2m monthly average ground temperature data and monthly total precipitation data are obtained from China Meteorological Administration website.
(2) whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, 3.2m ground temperature anomaly month border alternating temperature are madeDistribution map and moon precipitation
Anomalous percentageDistribution map.
(3), using national monthly precipitation anomaly percentage distribution figure, it is negative region to determine Precipitation anonaly percentage, that is, partially
Dry region.
(4), using whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, it is positive region to determine ground temperature anomaly.
(5) the amount class region of above-mentioned determination is utilized, their overlapping region, that is, xeothermic exceptions area is determined.
(6) the time-evolution of each xeothermic exceptions area is followed the trail of, maximum dry heat anomaly time and region is determined.
By China be divided into the east of 105 ° of longitude and to the west of two regions respectively by tectonic stress trilogy carry out 105 ° of E to the west of
Regional Ms >=5.7 grade strong earthquake prediction to the east of area Ms >=6.9 grade strong earthquake prediction, 105 ° of E.It is specific as follows：
Regional Ms >=6.9 grade strong earthquake prediction method refers to the west of 105 ° of E：
1. the tectonic stress first step：Maximum xeothermic area is generally present in before macroseism 3 ~ 12 months in month.By hair shake month average departure
Maximum xeothermic area month is 8 months average times as a macroseism tectonic stress.
2. tectonic stress second step：Strain wave wavelength starts to reduce, and this phenomenon appears in 1 ~ 7 month, distance after the tectonic stress first step
Origin time average out to 4 months.
Enter places lunate tail earthquake when less than 1000km, averagely the also timeliness of 3 months or so.
3. the step of tectonic stress the 3rd：It should die down and stop, i.e.,Wavelength on figure is elongated（This is " strain weakens "）Or warp-wise fluctuation
Disappear（Wavelength is changed into infinite length）, only remaining broadwise ripple（This is " strain stops "）.This is 1 ~ 8 after tectonic stress second step
Month, average out to 3 months.The hair shake of the step pitch of tectonic stress the 3rd averagely has 0.9 month.
4. Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude has good positive correlation with maximum xeothermic area, and the coefficient correlation of the two is 0.88, is exceeded
α=0.01tExamine.
Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude is calculated according to following formula：, whereinMsFor earthquake magnitude,For maximum xeothermic face
Product, unit is 106km2。
5. according to the Precipitation anonaly percentage of the xeothermic area most big moonDistribution map marks quasi- broadwiseMinimum band,
I.e. most dry band, the most dry predicted value forecast with latitude as earthquake centre latitude；Simultaneously in the strain wave most shortwave of the step of tectonic stress the 3rd
After the long moon occurs, using the longitude where the corresponding ripple of minimal wave length as earthquake centre longitude predicted value.
Therefore, using the differentiation information of ground temperature departure field before macroseism and Precipitation anonaly percentage, according to above-mentioned five steps
Suddenly, can be to area future Ms >=6.9 grade macroseism three elements to the west of 105 ° of E of China（During shake, earthquake centre and earthquake magnitude）Carry out mid-term pre-
Report.
Regional Ms >=5.7 grade strong earthquake prediction method refers to the east of 105 ° of E：
The I tectonic stress first step：Maximum xeothermic area is generally present in before macroseism 5 ~ 9 months in month.By hair shake month average departure most
Big xeothermic area month is 6 months average times as a macroseism tectonic stress.
II tectonic stress second step：Several months after the xeothermic area most big moon occurs, in the moon border alternating temperature of 3.2m ground temperature anomaly
Figure withOccur the fluctuation of quasi- warp-wise on figure, such a ground temperature, precipitation ripple can be regarded as to the beginning of earthquake preparation procedure second step.
L ~ 4 month are generally from tectonic stress first step the to second step, when earthquake magnitude is 6 grades or so, is 1 ~ 2 month, only shakes
Level is time-consuming up to 4 months for more than 7 grades persons.
The step of III tectonic stress the 3rd：Strain wave is weak to stop, i.e.,Wavelength on figure is elongated（This is " strain weakens "）Or warp-wise ripple
It is dynamic to disappear（Wavelength is changed into infinite length）, only remaining broadwise ripple（This is " strain stops "）.
Tectonic stress second step is to the 3rd step required time between 2 ~ 4 months, and tectonic stress second step strain wave continues the time used
It is larger compared with elder's earthquake magnitude.Tectonic stress the 3rd walks out of now earthquake generation after 1 ~ 2 month.
IV Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude has good positive correlation with maximum xeothermic area, and the coefficient correlation of the two is 0.95, is exceeded
The t of α=0.02 is examined.
Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude is calculated according to following formula：, whereinMsFor earthquake magnitude,For maximum xeothermic face
Product, unit is 106km2。
V is according to the Precipitation anonaly percentage of the xeothermic area most big moonDistribution map marks quasi- broadwiseMinimum band,
I.e. most dry band, the most dry predicted value forecast with latitude as earthquake centre latitude；Simultaneously most it is dry take most do, i.e.,Negative value
The longitude of maximum point as following earthquake centre longitude predicted value.
Therefore, using the differentiation information of ground temperature departure field before macroseism and Precipitation anonaly percentage, according to above-mentioned five steps
Suddenly, can be to area future Ms >=5.7 grade macroseism three elements to the east of 105 ° of E of China（During shake, earthquake centre and earthquake magnitude）Carry out mid-term pre-
Report.
Embodiment table 2 is that 1980-2009 Nian Jian China is western（24 ° ~ 42 ° N, 73 ° ~ 105 ° E）Totally 14 macroseisms are pregnant for MS >=6.9
Shake the statistical nature of trilogy.Statistical method to this table does as described below：
(1) first 0.5 ~ 1.5 year general " xeothermic exception " phenomenon that the several months occurs is shaken.Being set in month for maximum xeothermic area is " dry
The heat beginning moon "（That is, tectonic stress starts the moon, table 2 the 5th is arranged）, by maximum " xeothermic area " and most dry axis（Precipitation anonaly percentage is most
The line in small region）Residing latitude is listed in table 2（6th row and the 7th row）.
After " xeothermic moon beginning " the 3.2m ground temperature anomaly of each moon moon border alternating temperature figure and Precipitation anonaly percentage（R′%）Figure
On strain wave occurs, wavelength can shorten with the time.We will be set in the month that wavelength starts ＜ 1000km " moon strain wave beginning ".
This month is the beginning month of tectonic stress second step（Table 2 the 8th is arranged）.Table 2 has counted the length of each minimal wave length（Table 2 the 9th is arranged, with
102Km is unit）With corresponding longitude（Table 2 the 10th is arranged）.
(3), as " strain wave " wavelength constantly shortens, before macroseism generation, strain wave weakens, and wavelength is elongated, and amplitude becomes
It is small, or even quasi- broadwise is switched to by quasi- warp-wise, into " should die down and the stop " stage.This is the 3rd step of tectonic stress trilogy（In table 2
11 row）.
By the statistics of table 2, we can obtain following understanding：
(1) the tectonic stress first step：Maximum xeothermic area is generally present in before macroseism 3 ~ 12 months in month, the maximum before Wenchuan earthquake
Xeothermic area appears in first 16 months of shake.14 hair shake month average departure maximum xeothermic area months are 8 months on table 2（Table 2
13 row）, this can be regarded as to the average time of a macroseism tectonic stress.
(2) tectonic stress second step：Become ripple wavelength and start ＜ 1000km.This phenomenon appears in after the tectonic stress first step 1 ~ 7 month（Table 2
13rd row）, apart from origin time average out to 4 months.If the feature in this stage can be caught, secondary month from the appearance of tectonic stress second step is pre-
Earthquake prediction, the averagely also timeliness of 3 months or so.
(3) the step of tectonic stress the 3rd：It should die down and stop, 1 ~ 8 after tectonic stress second step month（Table 2 the 14th is arranged）, average out to 3 months.
The hair shake of the step pitch of tectonic stress the 3rd averagely has 0.9 month（Table 2 the 15th is arranged）.
(4) Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude has good positive correlation with maximum xeothermic area, and the coefficient correlation of the two is 0.88, is exceeded
The t of α=0.01 is examined.Equation of linear regression can be obtained from table 2 for MS=6.2+0.5wd（Wherein wd is maximum xeothermic area,
Unit is 106km2）.Thus, after maximum xeothermic area is known, according to above formula, Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude can be calculated.
(5) R ' the % of the xeothermic area most big moon（Precipitation anonaly percentage）On figure, the minimum bands of R ' % of quasi- broadwise can be marked
（Most dry band）, it is listed in the 7th row of table 2（φ is arranged）.By the latitude of the most dry band and earthquake centre latitude（3rd row）Compared to understanding, both
Difference is typically in 2 ° of latitudes away within.This shows：Most dry band latitude has preferable corresponding with earthquake centre latitude, and most dry band latitude can be made
The conjecture value predicted for earthquake centre latitude.It is after the strain wave minimal wave length month of the step of tectonic stress the 3rd occurs, minimal wave length is corresponding
Longitude where ripple is filled out on the row of table 2 the 10th（λ is arranged）.Contrast the longitude and earthquake centre longitude（Table 2 the 4th is arranged）, there is positive in the two
Close.This shows that strain wave wavelength is most short in epicentral area, outwards progressively longer.
From the above analysis, using the differentiation information of ground temperature departure field before macroseism and Precipitation anonaly percentage, having can
The Medium-term Index of earthquake prediction three elements can be found.
Table is since 2 1980 years to the west of 105 ° of E of ChinaM s>=6.9 grades of earthquake examples
Table 3 has listed China's essential characteristic before the shake of 17 Ms >=5.7 grade earthquakes to the east of 105 ° of E since 1980.Below to table 3
Carry out compared with labor.
Table earthquake example in Ms >=5.7 grade to the east of 105 ° of E of China since 3 1980 years
（1）The tectonic stress first step --- xeothermic exception
Precipitation anonaly percentage month by month over the years since the China 1980 drawn using National Climate center（）Scheme and I
The 3.2m ground temperature anomaly month border alternating temperature drawn is recorded according to about 200, whole nation weather station 3.2m ground temperature（）Figure, by the m months
'sFigure and the m+1 monthsFigure is analyzed one by one, it can be found that the individual example that there are about 65% meets " just many negative few rule
Then (soup is diligent grey etc., 2008), i.e.,Area, next month>0, vice versa.This is the forecasting index of a month precipitation.
But still there is about 35% not meet " just many negative few rules ", wherein small part is " clammy exception "（<0, but>0）, greatly
Part is " xeothermic exception "（>0, but<0）.The tendency that it is probably earthquake preparation that such " xeothermic exception ", which is,.To every
Individual survey station is each monthly to obtain " xeothermic index " finally（,WithProduct be defined as xeothermic index）（Tang Maocang
Deng 2010）.By since 2 months 1980 it is over the years month by monthArea mark, it is possible to find, xeothermic area has one with the time
The change in oscillation of individual 2~3 months.Middle macroseism generation the first half can always find xeothermic area maximum by 1 year in Damage Epicenter
One month, it is listed in the row of table 3 the 5th；6th is classified as the xeothermic area figures of this month（106km2For unit）.In the xeothermic scope of this month
The transmeridional most dry band of a standard can be marked, its latitude is listed on the row of table 3 the 7th；It can be found in most dry take<0 most
A small point（Most do）, its longitude station is listed on the 8th row.Seek 4 groups of parameters of the most dry moon listed by table 3 below
With Future Earthquakes when, the relation between sky, strong three elements.
1. the row of table 3 the 1st are subtracted each other with the 5th row, it is known that occur month the most dry moon 5~9 months more early than macroseism month, wherein
12/17 ≈ 71% is early 5~6 months, and 7.3 grades of macroseisms of only 1994 Septembers are occurred from after the most dry moon 9 months（It is shown in Table 4 the 1st
Row）.It seems that the time interval and following earthquake magnitude of the most dry moon and hair shake month have certain positive correlation.When forecast earthquake magnitude is 6 grades of left sides
When right, it is suitable that will forecast 5~6 months after the most dry moon hair shake month.
2. by the xeothermic area of the most dry moon（Table 3 the 6th is arranged, with 106km2For unit）With following earthquake magnitude（Table 3 the 2nd is arranged）Seek phase
Close, it is 0.9473 to calculate its coefficient correlation, and reliability is better than 0.02, regression equation：
（1）
According to, utilize（1）The earthquake magnitude that formula can be calculated following（）The row of table 4 the 5th are listed in, as following earthquake magnitude
Predicted value, it subtracts each other with actual earthquake magnitude is listed in the row of table 4 the 6th, it is seen that prediction error is within 0.3 grade.
3. by most dry band latitude in xeothermic area（Table 3 the 7th is arranged）With actual earthquake centre latitude（Table 3 the 3rd is arranged）Subtract each other（It is listed in table
4 the 7th row）, it is seen that differed between most dry latitude and earthquake centre latitude in ± 1 ° of latitude away within.This is provided for the forecast of epicentral location
One good first guess.
4. by most it is dry take most do（Negative value maximum point）Longitude（Table 3 the 8th is arranged）With earthquake centre longitude（Table 3 the 4th
Row）Subtract each other（It is listed in the row of table 4 the 8th）, it is seen that most do differed between longitude and following earthquake centre longitude -3 °~+5 ° warps away from, wherein
There is 12/17 ≈ 71% in ± 2 ° of warps away within.Then most xeromenia degree reluctantly can as earthquake centre longitude first guess.
During the earthquake that table 4 is forecast by table 3, sky, by force and live earthquake deviation
（2）Tectonic stress second step --- ground temperature, precipitation ripple（Strain wave）Occur
The xeothermic area most big moon（The tectonic stress first step）Several months after appearance, in the moon border alternating temperature of 3.2m ground temperature anomaly（）Figure
WithThe fluctuation of quasi- warp-wise occurs on figure：Crest（Paddy）Area correspond to many of next month（It is few）Rain belt.I other words
In the tectonic stress first step destroyed " just many negative few rules " now again with recovery.Such a ground temperature, precipitation ripple can be regarded as
The beginning of earthquake preparation procedure second step.It is l~4 month that the tectonic stress first step is time-consuming to second step as seen from Table 3（Table 4 the 2nd is arranged）, when
When earthquake magnitude is 6 grades or so, time-consuming is 1~2 month, and only earthquake magnitude is more than 7 grades（In September, 1994）Person is time-consuming up to 4 months.
Since tectonic stress second step, ground temperature, precipitation ripple（It is referred to as strain wave）Wavelength changed with longitude, future shake
In nearby wavelength it is most short.Wavelength is asked at any time also to be changed, and several months wavelength reaches most short usually after second step.Table 3 the 11st
Row have recorded each minimal wave length（With 102Km is unit）And its place longitude（10th row）.By it and earthquake centre longitude（Table 3
4 row）Compare（Table 4 the 9th is arranged）Although, it is seen that there are both differences of 14/17 ≈ 82% in ± 3 ° of warps away within, maximum difference is at 15 °
Through away from the above, so forecasting that earthquake centre longitude has not been index with the longitude of " minimal wave length ", it is only used as forecast reference.
（3）The step of tectonic stress the 3rd --- strain wave is weak to stop
With the arrival of tectonic stress second step, earth's crust rigid layer splits effect due to shaking for strained ripple, and Crustal Fracture is inevitable
Will occur.But before earthquake generation, the earth's crust will be by a critical point（Tang Maocang etc., 2010）, there is strain wave weak
Stop --- the step of tectonic stress the 3rd.On precipitation figure month by month, the performance of this step isWavelength on figure is elongated（This is " strain
Weaken "）Or warp-wise fluctuation disappears（Wavelength is changed into infinite length）, only remaining broadwise ripple（This is " strain stops "）.Most earthquakes are
Do not stop in strain, i.e., occur after " strain weakens ".What the row of table 3 the 12nd were marked is that precipitation ripple wavelength starts the substantially elongated moon
Part（Strain weakens the moon that begins）.The row of table 3 the 12nd are subtracted each other with the 9th row, it is known that 2~4 the time required to tectonic stress second step to the 3rd step
Between individual month（Table 4 the 3rd is arranged）, the time used is shorter（2 months）3 times, its average earthquake magnitude is 5.9 grades, and the time used is longer（4
Individual month）4 times, its average earthquake magnitude is 6.1 grades.It can be seen that, it is big compared with elder's earthquake magnitude that tectonic stress second step strain wave continues the time used
Some.The row of table 3 the 12nd are subtracted each other with the 1st row（It is listed in the row of table 4 the 4th）, it is known that tectonic stress the 3rd walks out of now earthquake hair after 1~2 month
It is raw.It can be seen that finding the step of tectonic stress the 3rd（Strain weakens）Appearance month, the mid-range forecast to Occurence Time of Earthquakes is helpful.
Claims (3)
1. the Di-qi map of earthquake prediction, comprises the following steps：
(1) national each weather station 3.2m monthly average ground temperature data and monthly total precipitation data are obtained from China Meteorological Administration website；
(2) whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, 3.2m ground temperature anomaly month border alternating temperature are madeDistribution map and monthly precipitation anomaly
PercentageDistribution map；
(3) using national monthly precipitation anomaly percentage distribution figure, the region for determining Precipitation anonaly percentage to bear, that is, it is partially dry
Region；
(4), using whole nation 3.2m ground temperature month anomaly distribution map, it is positive region to determine ground temperature anomaly；
(5) the amount class region of above-mentioned determination is utilized, their overlapping region, that is, xeothermic exceptions area is determined；
(6) the time-evolution of each xeothermic exceptions area is followed the trail of, maximum dry heat anomaly time and region is determined；
(7) China is divided into the east of 105 ° of longitude two regions with to the west of and carries out area Ms to the west of 105 ° of E by tectonic stress trilogy respectively
Regional Ms >=5.7 grade strong earthquake prediction to the east of >=6.9 grades of strong earthquake predictions, 105 ° of E.
2. the Di-qi map of earthquake prediction as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step (7) in 105 ° of E
To the west of regional Ms >=6.9 grade strong earthquake prediction method refer to the 1. tectonic stress first step：By the maximum xeothermic area month of hair shake month average departure
Part is 8 months average times as a macroseism tectonic stress；2. tectonic stress second step：Strain wave wavelength start reduce, when less than
Enter places lunate tail earthquake during 1000km；3. the step of tectonic stress the 3rd：It should die down and stop, i.e.,Wavelength on figure is elongated or warp-wise is fluctuated
Disappear, only remaining broadwise ripple；4. Future Earthquakes earthquake magnitude is calculated according to following formula：, whereinMsFor earthquake magnitude,
For maximum xeothermic area, unit is 106km2；5. according to the Precipitation anonaly percentage of the xeothermic area most big moonDistribution map is drawn
Go out quasi- broadwiseMinimum band, i.e., most dry band, the most dry predicted value forecast with latitude as earthquake centre latitude；Simultaneously in tectonic stress
After the strain wave minimal wave length month of 3rd step occurs, using the longitude where the corresponding ripple of minimal wave length as earthquake centre longitude forecast
Value.
3. the Di-qi map of earthquake prediction as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：The step (7) in 105 ° of E
To the east of regional Ms >=5.7 grade strong earthquake prediction method refer to the I tectonic stress first step：By hair shake month average departure maximum xeothermic area month
For 6 months average times as a macroseism tectonic stress；II tectonic stress second step：Several months after the xeothermic area most big moon occurs,
The moon border alternating temperature of 3.2m ground temperature anomalyFigure withOccurs the fluctuation of quasi- warp-wise on figure；The step of III tectonic stress the 3rd：Strain wave is weak
Stop, i.e.,Wavelength on figure is elongated or warp-wise fluctuation disappears, only remaining broadwise ripple；IV calculates Future Earthquakes shake according to following formula
Level：, whereinMsFor earthquake magnitude,For maximum xeothermic area, unit is 106km2；V is according to xeothermic area
The Precipitation anonaly percentage of the most big moonDistribution map marks quasi- broadwiseMinimum band, i.e., most dry band, the most dry band latitude
The predicted value forecast as earthquake centre latitude；Simultaneously most it is dry take most do, i.e.,The longitude of negative value maximum point is used as future
The predicted value of earthquake centre longitude.
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