CN117252331A - Water resource load assessment method for water source area - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a water resource load assessment method of a water source area based on a game theory-fuzzy comprehensive assessment theory, which aims to convert multi-index and multi-level fuzzy qualitative assessment into quantitative assessment, and utilizes data information to obtain a scientific result to a greater extent so as to solve the limitation of the traditional assessment method. The technical scheme is that the water resource bearing load assessment method of the water source area comprises the following steps: s1: carrying out investigation and evaluation of water resources in a water source area, water diversion engineering and economic characteristic determination; s2: establishing a water resource bearing load assessment index system of a water source area, wherein the water resource bearing load assessment index system comprises eleven indexes in five dimensions; s3: the corresponding state standard of each index is clarified, and the load is divided into five types of states; s4: subjective weighting W1 is carried out on the index; s5: objective weighting W2 is carried out on the index; s6: obtaining the combination weight of each index under optimization; s7: and (5) evaluating the water resource bearing load state of the water source area under the condition of large-scale external water regulation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a water resource load assessment method, in particular to a water resource load assessment method for a water source area based on a game theory-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory.
Background
The water resource is one of the most important material resources which are indispensable to the survival and development of human beings, is the basic support for the economic development, and is related to economic safety, ecological safety and national safety. Therefore, the water resource bearing load evaluation research of the water source area is developed, and the same-frequency resonance of the water resource situation, ecological environment protection and economic development of the water source area is further promoted.
At present, research on the bearing capacity of foreign water resources is mostly shown in a sustainable development theory, and research mainly aims at sustainable water consumption, water resource shortage degree indexes, water resource development limit and river development utilization rate limit on the premise of natural environment health. The domestic water resource bearing capacity research is late, the research on the water resource bearing load of the water source area after the construction of the water diversion project is not obvious, the current index system only considers the natural endowment limit, and does not consider the special situation and the requirement of the water source area and the influence of the current water saving priority and the strictest water resource management red line and other policy systems on the bearing load, so that the limitation of the index system is increasingly prominent. Meanwhile, the existing evaluation methods mostly adopt methods with strong subjectivity such as a principal component analysis method (principal component analysis), an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the like, strong objectivity such as an artificial neural network method (BP) and an improved BP and the like, and have the problems of unbalanced index weight or unclear mechanism, and cannot consider subjective and objective system factors, so that certain limitations exist.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the background technology, and provides a water resource bearing load assessment method for a water source area, which converts multi-index and multi-level fuzzy qualitative assessment into quantitative assessment, and utilizes data information to obtain scientific results to a greater extent so as to solve the limitations of the traditional assessment method.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: the water resource bearing load assessment method of the water source area comprises the following steps:
s1: according to the water source area position, carrying out investigation and evaluation of water resources in the water source area, and determining economic characteristics of water diversion engineering;
s2: the method comprises the steps of establishing a water resource bearing load assessment index system of a water source area, which comprises eleven indexes in five dimensions, specifically comprises a water resource quantity u of people per unit of water, according to scientific, comprehensive, independent, typical and other principles and combining water taking characteristics of the water source area 1 Index utilization ratio u of domestic and industrial water consumption 2 Population density u 3 Area u for city construction 4 Water consumption u of non-nonagricultural ten thousand yuan GDP 5 Value-added water consumption u for ten thousand yuan industry 6 Water quality u of water functional area 7 Coverage of vegetation u 8 Water quality u of water source 9 Water regulation intensity (relation between water regulation quantity and water resource availability) u 10 Nutritional status u 11 ；
S3: according to the value range of each related index in the evaluation index system, the state standard corresponding to each index is clarified, and the load is divided into five types of states;
s4: adopting an analytic hierarchy process (AHP method) to calculate subjective weights of eleven indexes in a water resource bearing load index system of a water source area, and subjectively giving weight W to the indexes 1 ；
S5: calculating objective weights of eleven indexes in a water resource bearing load index system of a water source area by adopting an entropy weight method, and objectively giving weight W to the indexes 2 ；
S6: subjective weighting W using game theory 1 Objective weighting W 2 Optimizing, adjusting the deviation between the weight value and the optimal weight value to minimize and balance the weight value, and obtaining the combination weight W of each index under optimization * 。
S7: obtaining a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix (R) on the evaluation set corresponding to each index of the water source region by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive analysis method and adopting membership function transformation l×m ) By comprehensive evaluation b=w * And R, evaluating the water resource bearing load state of the water source area under the condition of large-scale external water regulation. Wherein m is the number of state types, and l is the number of index systems.
Specifically, the step S1 includes:
s101, water resource investigation and evaluation comprise water resource quantity, water resource availability, water quality of a water functional area, water quality and nutrition state of a water source area, vegetation coverage, living and industrial water consumption and total water consumption, water regulating engineering comprises water regulating quantity, and economic characteristics comprise resident population, urban construction land area, total regional production value (GDP) and industrial increment value.
Specifically, the step S3 includes:
s301: based on the value ranges of all indexes in the index system, dividing the whole range into five types of states including non-overload, critical state, light overload, overload and serious overload;
specifically, the analytic hierarchy process of step S4 includes:
s401: the method comprises the steps of taking a water resource bearing load as a target layer, taking a water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source area as a criterion layer of five dimensions, taking eleven basic indexes as specific index layers, and establishing a hierarchical structure model of an index system. Wherein the water resource dimension corresponds to the water resource quantity u 1 And index utilization ratio u of domestic and industrial water consumption 2 The social dimension corresponds to population density u 3 And area u for city construction of people average 4 The economic dimension corresponds to the water consumption u of non-nonagricultural ten thousand yuan GDP 5 And ten thousand yuan industry increase value water consumption u 6 The ecological dimension corresponds to the water quality u of the water function area 7 And vegetation coverage u 8 Water source area dimensionCorresponding to the water quality u of the water source 9 Water regulation intensity (relation between water regulation quantity and water resource availability) u 10 Nutritional status u 11 ；
S402: constructing a judgment matrix of a criterion layer and an index layer according to a proportion scale theory;
specifically, the expression for constructing the judgment matrix in step S402 is exemplified as follows:
wherein r is i,j A importance scale representing the ith factor as compared to the jth factor; s is the number of factors (s=5, s is the index layer judgment matrix corresponding to water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source area, s is 2, 2 and 3) when the judgment matrix is established; r is (r) i,j The following relationship is satisfied: r is (r) i,j >0；r ij ＝1；r i,j ＝1/r j,i 。
The importance scale is as follows:
| scale with a scale bar | Meaning of |
| 1 | Representing that the two factors are of equal importance in comparison |
| 3 | Representing that one factor is slightly more important than the other than two factors |
| 5 | Representing that one factor is significantly more important than the other than the two factors |
| 7 | Representing that one factor is more important than the other than two factors |
| 9 | Representing that one factor is extremely important than the other factor in comparison with two factors |
| 2，4，6，8 | Median of the two adjacent judgments |
| Reciprocal count | Judgment r of factor i and j comparison i,j Judgment r of factors j and i j,i ＝1/r i,j |
S403: after error of subjective judgment matrix and objective fact is avoided according to matrix consistency test, obtaining importance degree (IZ) of each factor in a criterion layer and importance degree (IZB) of each factor in an index layer corresponding to each criterion layer by adopting a geometric average method, and obtaining subjective weight of each index according to the product of the criterion layer and the importance degree of the index layer corresponding to the criterion layer;
specifically, the step S403 includes:
the Consistency Index (CI), the Random Index (RI), and the Consistency Ratio (CR) of the judgment matrix are calculated by the following formulas:
CI＝(λ max -s)/(s-1)
CR＝CI/RI
wherein: CI is a consistency index of the matrix; RI is a random index; CR is a consistency ratio; lambda (lambda) max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; RI values are shown in the following table according to the Saath test standard; if CR is<0.1, the consistency of the judgment matrix is considered acceptable; if CR is more than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix is modified until the consistency is acceptable;
based on the judgment matrix, the importance degree (IZ) of each factor in the criterion layer and the importance degree (IZB) of each factor in the corresponding criterion layer are obtained through the following geometric mean formula calculation:
wherein,the product of the elements of the 1 st to s th rows of the judgment matrix A is shown.
Based on the importance degree (IZ) of each factor in the criterion layer and the importance degree (IZB) of each factor in the index layer corresponding to each criterion layer, each index subjectively weights omega i Calculated by the following formula:
ω i ＝IZ j ×IZB j,t
wherein: IZ (IZ) j The importance of the j-th dimension of the criterion layer is represented, and j=1 to 5 correspond to each dimension of the water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source area respectively; IZB (IZB) j,t The importance of the t index in the j dimension of the criterion layer is represented, t=1-2 in the four dimensions of water resource, society, economy and ecology, and t=1-3 in the dimension of the water source area; i=1 to 11 corresponds to 11 indexes of the index layer respectively;
specifically, the step S5 calculates the objective weight of the index by using the entropy weight method, and specifically includes:
s501: and (5) normalization treatment. The data of different dimensions are equally classified, and a critical value method is generally adopted. For example, the jth indicator of the ith water source zone is x i,j Normalized to x' I,j There are two formulas:
x′ i,j ＝(x i,j -min(x j ))/(max(x j )-min(x j ))
x′ i,j ＝(max(x j )-x i,j )/(max(x j )-min(x j ))
x i,j the j index value of the ith water source area is normalized to x' I,j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the If the index is a benefit index, selecting a first formula; if the index is a cost index, a second formula is selected. min (X) j ) Is the minimum value of the j-th index, max (X j ) Is the maximum value of the j-th index.
After normalization treatment, the evaluation index matrix is obtained as
Wherein k is the number of water source areas;
s502: and calculating the entropy and the weight of the index.
Specific gravity (y) of the jth index of the ith water source zone i,j ) The calculation formula is as follows:
when y is i,j When=0, lny i,j ＝0；
Information entropy of the j-th index (e j ) The calculation formula is as follows:
where K is a constant, k=1/lnk;
the calculation formula of the entropy weight of the j index is as follows:
entropy weight omega j The objective weight corresponding to the index is obtained.
Specifically, the step S6 specifically includes construction of a countermeasure model, calculation of a combining coefficient, and calculation of a combining weight:
s601: as can be seen from the foregoing, there are two methods of weighting the indicators, namely the AHP method (subjective weight) and the AHP methodEntropy weighting (objective weighting), a set of weights (W) is constructed from the subjective and objective weights f )：
W f ＝[w f,1 ,w f,2 ,…,w f,11 ]
Wherein w is f,j The weight of each index of each method; f=1, 2 are subjective weights, objective weights, respectively; j=1, 2, …,11 is the 1 st, 2 nd, … th, 11 th index.
S602: based on the idea of game theory, the principle is to seek the compromise of optimization, namely, the deviation between the weight and the optimal weight value is minimized; countermeasure model optimized according to the modelBased on matrix differential properties, constructing the first derivative +.>The corresponding linear equation set is constructed as follows:
wherein,for weight set w f F=1, 2 correspond to subjective weight, objective weight, respectively, have the same characterization as p; alpha f Is a linear combination coefficient; I.I 2 Is the 2-norm of the matrix;
calculating to obtain a combination coefficient { alpha } 1 ,α 2 (wherein, alpha) 1 、α 2 The linear combination coefficients of subjective weight and objective weight are respectively) and standard normalization processing is carried out, thus obtainingBy this final combination coefficient->Based on the calculation, a combination weight W is obtained * ：
Wherein,f=1 and 2 correspond to subjective weights and objective weights respectively for the final linear combination coefficients; w (W) * Is the final combining weight.
Specifically, the step S7 specifically includes:
s701: and determining a fuzzy comprehensive judgment matrix. As can be seen from the foregoing, eleven indexes of five dimensions of the water source area are selected as the water resource load evaluation factor set U, and the load is divided into five types of states V. On the basis, a trapezoidal distribution construction membership function is selected by adopting an assignment method.
V＝{v 1 ,v 2 ,v 3 ,v 4 ,v 5 }
Wherein v is 1 In order not to overload v 2 In critical state, v 3 Is lightly overloaded, v 4 Is overloaded v 5 Is severely overloaded.
Membership function of each index to load-bearing state:
wherein u is j The value of the j index of the water source area to be evaluated; u (u) j,1 、u j,2 、u j,3 、u j,4 、u j,5 The j indexes are the membership degrees of the 5 load bearing states respectively.
Substituting data, solving and determining fuzzy comprehensive judgmentMatrix (R) l×m ) For each element u j An evaluation was made.
Wherein u is j,m The membership degree of the jth index in the mth load carrying state is respectively;
s702: and (5) comprehensive judgment. As can be seen from the foregoing, the present invention adopts game theory to synthesize subjective and objective weights to determine weights W of various index factors * In combination with a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix (R) l×m ) And calculating a comprehensive evaluation vector B, calculating the final evaluation grade of the water resource bearing load of the water source area according to the maximum membership principle, and taking the comment with the maximum value as a comprehensive evaluation result.
B＝W * ·R＝(b 1 ,b 2 ,b m )
Wherein b j The membership degree corresponding to each load bearing state of the water source area is set; m is the grading number of the load bearing states, namely 5.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the water resource load assessment method for the water source area integrates multidimensional basic ideas and methods such as game theory, fuzzy phenomenon, subjective and objective thinking and the like, and effectively reflects actual water resource load and dynamic change of the water source area under the conditions of large-scale external water regulation and high protection requirements by establishing a more targeted index system applicable to water resource load assessment of the water source area; on the basis, subjective and objective weights of all indexes are determined by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight process, and the weights are subjected to optimal strategy fusion by adopting a game theory idea, so that the problem of limitation of subjective or objective single-dimensional weight unbalance is effectively solved, and the scientificity of weight optimization and the accuracy of decision are improved. Meanwhile, the fact that the water resource bearing load of the real water source area is more in dimension is considered, and the bearing load state is difficult to use deterministic mathematical description in the evaluation process is introduced into the fuzzy mathematical idea, and the fuzzy comprehensive decision is adopted to convert the bearing load state from qualitative evaluation to quantitative evaluation, so that the indistinct and dialectical property of the bearing load evaluation method are effectively solved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a technical roadmap of the water resource load assessment method for a water source area provided by the invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a hierarchical architecture of an evaluation index system in the water source load evaluation method of the water source area provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a water resource load assessment method for a water source area, which is characterized in that a new index which takes the characteristics of the water source area as the weight and can reflect the water source area to be subjected to large-scale external water regulation and high-requirement protection under special circumstances is added in a traditional assessment system, the technical limitation problem of traditional subjective or objective single-dimensional weight unbalance is effectively solved by combining optimal strategies in game theory on the basis of considering subjective and objective weights, and the indistinct and dialectic problems of qualitative assessment of load bearing are effectively solved by introducing a fuzzy mathematical idea.
In order to make the objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments of the present invention. The embodiments described below are only some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, taking a certain water source area 1 as an example, an embodiment of a water source area water resource load assessment method provided by the present invention includes:
step one: the basic data of the water source area 1 are collected by investigation. The water source area is 4452km 2 The resident population is 32.9 ten thousand people, and the urban construction area of people per capita is 166.7m 2 GDP is 240.6 hundred million yuan, the industry increases 37.9 hundred million yuan, and the average water resource amount per year is 77.26 hundred million m 3 . Large reservoirs with 178.4 hundred million m volume are built in the field 3 Is a water source for major water distribution engineering, and is designed to regulate water to a scale of 9.78 hundred million m 3 。
Step (a)And II: the water resource bearing load assessment index system of the water source area is divided into five indexes of water resource, economy, society, ecology and water source area, wherein the water resource comprises water resource quantity U 1 And index utilization ratio U of domestic and industrial water consumption 2 Society includes population density U 3 Floor area U for city construction 4 Economic includes the water consumption U of non-agricultural ten thousand yuan GDP 5 And ten thousand yuan industry added value water consumption U 6 Ecologically-included water quality U of water functional area 7 And vegetation coverage U 8 The water source area comprises water quality U of the water source area 9 U for regulating water intensity (relation between regulating water quantity and water resource availability) 10 Nutritional status U 11 ；
Step three: collecting relevant original data of a current annual water source area, and calculating to obtain eleven evaluation index values;
the calculation formula of the eleven evaluation indexes is as follows:
(1) water resource quantity per capita (m) 3 )
U 1 Total water resource/resident population, benefit index
(2) Index utilization rate (%)
U 2 Domestic and industrial water consumption/domestic and industrial water consumption control target, cost index
(3) Population density (person/km) 2 )
U 3 Cost index =resident population/land area
(4) Area for city construction per capita (m) 2 Person/person)
U 4 Urban construction land area/number of resident population in the range, cost index
(5) Non-agricultural ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption (m) 3 )
U 5 Non-agricultural water/non-agricultural GDP, cost indicator
(6) Ten thousand yuan industry increasing value water consumption (m) 3 )
U 6 Cost index =industrial water consumption/industrial increment value
(7) Water quality of Water functional area (%)
U 7 Water quality standard reaching quantity/total quantity of water functional areas, benefit index
(8) Vegetation coverage (%)
U 8 Vegetation coverage area/total land area, benefit index
(9) Water quality of water source (percent)
U 9 Water quality standard-reaching days/total days of year of annual water supply source area, benefit index
Strength of water regulation (%)
U 10 Cost index of annual actual water volume/water resource availability
Nutritional status (%)
U 11 Cost index of =annual malnutrition status days/annual total days
Based on the index calculation formula, the evaluation index value of the water source area is shown in the following table.
TABLE 1 raw index data for Water Source zone
Meanwhile, the standard system of five types of load bearing states corresponding to each index is clarified.
Table 2 load carrying status index rating and criteria
| Evaluation index | Not overloaded | Critical state | Slight overload | Overload of | Severe overload |
| Water resource quantity per capita (m) 3 ) | ≥3000 | 2000～3000 | 1000～2000 | 500～1000 | 0～500 |
| Index utilization rate (%) | 0～85 | 85～100 | 100～110 | 110～120 | ＞120 |
| Population density (person/km) 2 ) | 0～100 | 100～300 | 300～500 | 500～700 | ＞700 |
| Area for city construction per capita (m) 2 Person/person) | 0～85 | 85～95 | 95～105 | 105～115 | ＞115 |
| Non-agricultural ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption (m) 3 ) | 0～20 | 20～30 | 30～40 | 40～50 | ＞50 |
| Ten thousand yuan industry increasing value water consumption (m) 3 ) | 0～15 | 15～25 | 25～35 | 35～40 | ＞40 |
| Water quality of Water functional area (%) | 100 | 98～100 | 95～98 | 90～95 | ≤90 |
| Vegetation coverage (%) | ≥65 | 63～65 | 61～63 | 60～61 | ≤60 |
| Water quality of water source (percent) | 100 | 95～100 | 93～95 | 90～93 | ≤90 |
| Intensity of water transfer (%) | 0～10 | 10～15 | 15～20 | 20～25 | ＞25 |
| Nutritional status (%) | 0 | 0～5 | 5～10 | 10～15 | ＞15 |
Step four: based on an index system and a grading standard, according to the related experience of water resource management and state, the average water resource quantity of water resources in an index layer is the same as the index utilization rate of domestic and industrial water consumption, the population density of the society is the same as the area importance for construction of average water consumption, the non-agricultural ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption of the economy is the same as the water consumption of ten thousand yuan industry increment value, the water quality and vegetation coverage of a water functional area of the ecology are the same, and the importance judgment matrix of the water quality, water regulation intensity and nutrition state of a water source area of the water source area is as follows:
calculating to obtain the matrix eigenvalue 3.029, C R =0.025, the matrix meets the consistency test, and the geometric average method is adopted to obtain the index importance of the water source region class;
TABLE 3 importance of secondary indicators for Water Source regions
| Index item | Water quality of water source | Intensity of water regulation | Nutritional status |
| Importance level | 0.405 | 0.481 | 0.114 |
Further, a judgment matrix of criterion layer water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source area primary index (five dimensions) is constructed:
calculating to obtain the characteristic value 5.0651, C of the judgment matrix R =0.015, the matrix meets the consistency test, and the index importance of five primary indexes of the criterion layer is calculated by adopting a geometric average method;
TABLE 4 importance of criterion layer primary indicators
In summary, the importance values of the first-level index and the second-level index (eleven indexes in the index layer) of the criterion layer in the AHP method are synthesized, and the subjective weight of each index is determined.
Table 5 subjective weight values for load carrying status assessment indicators
Step five: based on the index system and the grading standard, an entropy weight method is adopted to determine the objective weight of each index.
Based on the index values of the water source areas 1-5 in Table 1, carrying out data normalization processing, obtaining the entropy value of the index, further calculating the entropy weight of the index, and obtaining the objective weight after normalization.
TABLE 6 objective weight values for load State evaluation indicators for Water Source regions
Step six: based on the subjective weight set and the objective weight set obtained through calculation, the combination coefficient of each weight set is determined according to the idea of game theory, and the combination weight of each index is obtained through calculation. The details are shown in Table 7 below.
Table 7 combined weight values of the indicators
Step seven: this time, taking the water source area 1 as an example, the carrying state evaluation of the water source area is carried out.
Based on each index value of the water source area, combining membership functions to obtain a fuzzy comprehensive judgment matrix as follows:
the combination weights of the indexes in the table 7 are synthesized, and the membership degree of the water source area 1 to each water resource load level is calculated, wherein the membership degree is specifically as follows:
B＝(0.7330.0000.0070.1340.126)
and calculating according to the membership value of each grade, and determining that the water resource bearing state of the water source area 1 is not overloaded this time.
According to the water resource load assessment method for the water source area, the novel indexes with the characteristics of the water source area and the control red line are added in the traditional resource load bearing index system, the influence of subjective and objective system factors is considered, multi-index and multi-level fuzzy qualitative assessment is converted into quantitative assessment, a scientific result is obtained through utilizing data information to a greater extent, the technical problem that the traditional assessment method has limitations is solved, and the method has wide popularization and universality.
The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily understood by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are intended to be included in the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (8)
1. The water resource load assessment method of the water source area comprises the following steps:
s1: according to the water source area position, carrying out investigation and evaluation of water resources in the water source area, and determining economic characteristics of water diversion engineering;
s2: combining water taking characteristics of a water source area, and establishing a water source area water resource bearing load assessment index system containing eleven indexes in five dimensions;
s3: according to the value range of each related index in the evaluation index system, the detail indexes correspond to the state standards, and the load is divided into five types;
s4: adopting an analytic hierarchy process (AHP method) to calculate subjective weights of eleven indexes in a water resource bearing load index system of a water source area, and subjectively giving weight W to the indexes 1 ；
S5: calculating objective weights of eleven indexes in a water resource bearing load index system of a water source area by adopting an entropy weight method, and objectively giving weight W to the indexes 2 ；
S6: subjective weighting W using game theory 1 Objective weighting W 2 Optimizing, and adjusting the deviation between the weight value and the optimal weight value to minimize and balance the weight value to obtain each index weight W under optimization * ；
S7: obtaining a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix R on the evaluation set corresponding to each index of the water source region by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive analysis method and adopting membership function transformation l×m By comprehensive evaluation b=w * R, evaluating the water resource bearing load state of a water source area under the condition of large-scale external water regulation; wherein m is the number of state types, and l is the number of index systems.
2. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: the water resource investigation and evaluation in the step 1 comprises water resource quantity, water resource availability, water quality of a water function area, water quality and nutrition state of a water source area, vegetation coverage rate, living and industrial water consumption and total water consumption, water regulating engineering comprises water regulating quantity, and economic characteristics comprise resident population, urban construction land area, regional production total value and industrial increment value.
3. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: the five dimensions in the step 2 are water resources, society, economy, ecology and water source areas respectively;
the corresponding indexes covered by the water resource dimension are two, namely the index utilization rate of the water resource quantity of people and the water consumption of life and industry;
the corresponding indexes covered by the social dimension are two, namely population density and city construction land area per person;
the corresponding indexes covered by the economic dimension are two, namely, the water consumption of the non-agricultural ten-thousand-element GDP and the water consumption of the ten-thousand-element industrial increment value;
the corresponding indexes covered by the ecological dimension are two, namely the water quality of the water functional area and the vegetation coverage rate;
the corresponding indexes covered by the dimension of the water source area are three, namely the water quality, the water regulating intensity and the nutrition state of the water source area.
4. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: the states corresponding to the indexes in the step 3 are divided into five types, including no overload, critical state, light overload, overload and serious overload.
5. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: the analytic hierarchy process in step 4 is a criterion layer with water resource bearing load as a target layer, water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source areas as five dimensions, eleven basic indexes as specific index layers, and establishes the following judgment matrix of the criterion layer and the index layers:
wherein: r is (r) i,j A importance scale representing the ith factor as compared to the jth factor; s is the number of factors (s=5, s is the index layer judgment matrix corresponding to water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source area, s is 2, 2 and 3) when the judgment matrix is established; r is (r) i,j The following relationship is satisfied: r is (r) i,j >0；r i,j ＝1；r i,j ＝1/r j,i ；
The importance scale is as follows:
The consistency test of the judgment matrix is calculated by adopting the following formula:
CI＝(λ max -s)/(s-1)
CR＝CI/RI
wherein: CI is a consistency index of the matrix; RI is a random index; CR is a consistency ratio; lambda (lambda) max Judging the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; according to the Saath testThe RI value of the test standard is shown in the following table; if CR is<0.1, the consistency of the judgment matrix is considered acceptable; if CR is more than or equal to 0.1, the judgment matrix is modified until the consistency is acceptable;
the importance degree (IZ) of each factor of the criterion layer and the importance degree (IZB) of each factor in the index layer corresponding to each criterion layer are calculated by the following geometric mean method formula:
wherein:the product of the elements of the 1 st to s th rows of the judgment matrix A is shown.
Subjective weight ω of each index i Calculated by the following formula:
ω i ＝IZ j ×IZB j,t
wherein: IZ (IZ) j The importance of the j-th dimension of the criterion layer is represented, and j=1 to 5 correspond to each dimension of the water resource, society, economy, ecology and water source area respectively; IZB (IZB) j,t The importance of the t index in the j dimension of the criterion layer is represented, t=1-2 in the four dimensions of water resource, society, economy and ecology, and t=1-3 in the dimension of the water source area; i=1 to 11 corresponds to 11 indices of the index layer, respectively.
6. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: objective weight ω of the index verified by entropy weight method described in step 5 j The method comprises normalization, calculation of specific gravity, entropy and entropy weight of the index;
the normalization process has the following two formulas:
x' i,j ＝(x i,j -min(x j ))/(max(x j )-min(x j ))
x' i,j ＝(max(x j )-x i,j )/(max(x j )-min(x j ))
x i,j the j index value of the ith water source area is normalized to x' i,j The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the If the index is a benefit index, selecting a first formula; if the index is a cost index, selecting a second formula;
min(X j ) Is the minimum value of the j-th index, max (X j ) Is the maximum value of the j index;
after normalization treatment, the specific gravity calculation formula of the jth index of the ith water source area is as follows:
wherein k is the number of water source areas; when y is i,j When=0, lny i,j ＝0；
The information entropy calculation formula of the j index is as follows:
where K is a constant, k=1/lnk;
the calculation formula of the entropy weight of the j index is as follows:
entropy weight omega j The objective weight corresponding to the index is obtained.
7. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: the step 6 is characterized in that subjective and objective weights are combined by adopting a game theory, and the subjective and objective weights comprise construction of a countermeasure model, calculation of a combination coefficient and calculation of a combination weight;
the countermeasure model is constructed by adopting the following formula:
wherein,for weight set w f F=1, 2 correspond to subjective weight, objective weight, respectively, have the same characterization as p; alpha f Is a linear combination coefficient; I.I 2 Is the 2-norm of the matrix;
according to the idea of game theory, searching for the compromise of optimization, namely minimizing the deviation between the weight and the optimal weight value;
the calculation of the combination coefficients has the following two formulas:
wherein alpha is 1 、α 2 The linear combination coefficients are subjective weights and objective weights respectively; w (w) 1 For the subjective weight to be given,transpose the matrix thereof; w (w) 2 Subjective weight->Transpose the matrix thereof;
wherein,for the final linear combination coefficients, f=1, 2 corresponds to the main respectivelyViewing weight, objective weight;
the combining weight is calculated by the following formula:
wherein W is * Is the final combining weight.
8. The method for evaluating the water resource load of a water source area according to claim 1, wherein: the step 7 of evaluating the water resource load bearing state of the water source area by adopting a fuzzy comprehensive analysis method specifically comprises the steps of constructing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix and judging the load bearing state;
the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix is constructed by adopting the following membership function formula:
wherein v is 1 In order not to overload v 2 In critical state, v 3 Is lightly overloaded, v 4 Is overloaded v 5 Is severely overloaded; u (u) j The value of the j index of the water source area to be evaluated; u (u) j,1 、u j,2 、u j,3 、u j,4 、u j,5 The membership degree of the j index in five load bearing states is respectively;
determined fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix (R l×m ) The following is shown:
wherein u is j,m Respectively the j index is in the m load bearing stateMembership of the state;
the load carrying state is determined by the following matrix operation formula:
B＝W * ·R＝(b 1 ,b 2 ,…b m )
wherein b j The membership degree corresponding to each load bearing state of the water source area is set; m is the number of load bearing state types, namely 5;
and taking the comment with the maximum value as a comprehensive judgment result according to the maximum membership rule.
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