CN109377067A - A kind of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method - Google Patents
A kind of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention at present the deficiency of hazard-affected body fragility area research and there are aiming at the problem that, a kind of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method is provided.The present invention carries out in the following manner: 1) establish assessment indicator system, the principal element of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system is: population, intrinsic wealth, the mankind creates the wealth, life line system engineering；2) grade classification is carried out to Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index；3) evaluation criterion weight is determined；Evaluation of vulnerability index weights are calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), then determine the typical value of loss caused by risk case again.Summation can arrive Vulnerability Model after each corresponding weighted value and loss typical value make product.The present invention is comprehensively analyzed and researched using region hazard-affected body as research object, to fragility, is conducive to improving and supplementing for Regional Disaster mitigation guiding theory.Meanwhile it optimization to region contingency management and improving there is positive effect.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Hazard Assessment method fields, and in particular to a kind of disaster bearing body's vulnerability evaluation method.
Background technique
In recent years, the investment in terms of fragile Journal of Sex Research is continuously increased.According to the experts such as janssen M.A. and scholar couple
The research in the fields such as environment, Humanistic Factors is collected conclusion discovery to 1967 to 2005 2286 parts of publications, wherein
939 parts of publications are related with fragility, and have the tendency that constantly quickling increase in recent years.It can be seen that fragility is current
Academic research in status it is more and more important.Under the continually changing background of earth environment, the scientist in many fields is fragile
Property as a kind of research tool carry out development and perfect or even a part of scholar using fragility as a kind of emerging subject progress
Research.
The research of the concept of fragility and the research of evaluation method are the primary contents of current fragile Journal of Sex Research.Fragility
Can the prospect of development and utilization by the restriction that establish unified fragility concept and an appraisement system.With to fragility
Research is goed deep into, everybody gradually unifies to the attributes such as loss property, sensibility, stability fragility understanding, but cognitive diversity is still
So exist, still faces many problems.
The foundation of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system is the basis of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation, is directly affected
The accuracy and objectivity of evaluation result, the foundation of selection, appraisement system including evaluation index and index weights determination etc. three
Part.
Summary of the invention
The present invention at present the deficiency of hazard-affected body fragility area research and there are aiming at the problem that, a kind of region is provided and is held
Calamity body Vulnerability Assessment.
The technical scheme of the present invention is realized as follows: a kind of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method, is according to following
What mode carried out: 1) establishing assessment indicator system, the principal element of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system is: population, intrinsic
Wealth, the mankind create the wealth, life line system engineering；2) grade classification is carried out to Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index；3) it determines
Evaluation criterion weight；Evaluation of vulnerability index weights are calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the specific method is as follows: 3.1) analyzing each index
Between relationship, establish ladder level assessment indicator system；3.2) structural matrix judges importance；With the number in matrix
Character table indicates relative importance between the two, and the evaluation index of more same rank, obtains the difference of relative importance two-by-two
Other grade；3.3) the n times root of the product of judgment matrix A row element is sought；Calculate the row element product M of judgment matrixiAnd ask its n times side
Root, as
3.4) vector B is normalized, formula are as follows:
Wherein CiThe index weights of as required i；Then the typical value of loss caused by risk case is determined again.It is each right
Summation can arrive Vulnerability Model after the weighted value and loss typical value answered make product；
3.5) Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix, calculation formula are asked are as follows:
Wherein, n is matrix order；
3.6) parameter coincident indicator k, calculation method are as follows:
Wherein, n is matrix order, and coincident indicator k is smaller, then the consistency possibility of judgment matrix is bigger；
3.7) inquiry judging matrix Aver-age Random Consistency Index value Y；
3.8) consistency ration, calculation method are calculated are as follows:
If Z < 0.1, then it is assumed that judgment matrix is with uniformity, if it does not meet the requirements, needs assignment calculating again.Until sentencing
Until the consistency of disconnected matrix meets the requirements.
The present invention is comprehensively analyzed and researched using region hazard-affected body as research object, to fragility, and it is anti-to be conducive to region
Calamity mitigation guiding theory being improved and supplementing.Meanwhile it optimization to region contingency management and improving there is positive effect.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained every other under that premise of not paying creative labor
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method of the present invention, carries out in the following manner:
Step 1) establishes assessment indicator system, and the principal element of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system is: population, intrinsic
Wealth, the mankind create the wealth, life line system engineering；
Region hazard-affected body fragility appraisement system is the appraisement system of complexity, region Evaluation of vulnerability be related to politics, society,
All various aspects such as culture, economy.According to the principle of above-mentioned appraisement system selecting index, after research, summary, conclusion, choose
Several indexs such as population, intrinsic wealth, the mankind creates the wealth, lifeline engineering are as Evaluation of vulnerability system index.Wherein,
Fixed property includes that the indexs such as area, cultivated area, the total amount of end of the year resident population, history relic property are built up in city；The mankind
Wealth includes the indexs such as industry, agricultural and other domestic industrial total output values；Lifeline engineering includes that communications and transportation, electronics are logical
The indexs such as news ability, domestic energy engineering.Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system is as shown in Figure 1:
Population: when disaster occurs, the mankind are victims.As human living standard is gradually increased, the size of population is constantly mentioned
Height causes the economically developed region density of population to be continuously increased since the development of regional economy situation is uneven.It is built from economic investment
Say that the density of population is the bigger the better with construction utilization rate angle；But it says that the density of population is bigger from security standpoint visual angle, disaster occurs
A possibility that it is bigger, occurring injures and deaths caused by after disaster and loss it is bigger.Therefore, when using the density of population as region hazard-affected body
When one index of Evaluation of vulnerability system, the density of population is the smaller the better.The selected density of population of the present invention is area unit
Total number of persons in land area.The natural growth rate of population is the basic foundation of somewhere population forecast, generally the economic water with locality
It puts down related, is the indispensable evaluation index of vulnerability inder system.
Intrinsic wealth: refer to basic fixtures for the survival of mankind.Intrinsic wealth is arable land concentration, resident's feelings
Condition, city are built up to be embodied with the comprehensive of the properties such as history relic.Cultivated area is the basis of agricultural production, can measure agricultural
Production status, cultivated area density are the cultivated areas on unit area area.Year end inhabitation amount can use total amount or total
Family's number is measured, and is total amount in end of the year unit area area.Urban architecture density can reflect urban construction situation, be unit
The gross area of urban architecture in regional city area.The properties such as history relic refer in region to the people's livelihood economic in whole region
Play building, facility or the building, the scenic spot that have higher cultureal value of significant role.
The mankind create the wealth: create the wealth number represent the situation of Regional Economic Development, embody people and utilize nature
Ability, the level of material life.The accumulation of wealth is conducive to prevent the generation of disaster, but for excessive pursuit economic growth
And ignore the pollution of environment, so that the environment of human survival is become severe, moreover it is possible to the fragility of region hazard-affected body is made constantly to die down,
Disaster takes place frequently.Meanwhile the unreasonable concentration of wealth may make the loss in disaster become larger.The mankind are selected to create the wealth in the present invention
As the index of appraisement system, refer to the wealth created in the unit time.
Life line system engineering: refer to and be related to communications and transportation, electronics with the foundation engineering of the various system normal operations in region
The engineerings such as ability to communicate, oil-vapor pipe.With the development of society, mechanization and electrified continuous improvement, people are to lifeline
The degree of dependence of engineering is higher and higher.So caused loss and disaster are more serious when lifeline engineering wrecks.This
Four indexs such as invention selection communications and transportation, power supply, oil-gas pipeline, communication are analyzed and researched.Wherein, communications and transportation with
The transport mileages such as highway, railway, aviation are measured in region；Power supply, communication, oil-gas pipeline, water supply line are with whole region
The degree of interior covering is measurement standard.
Step 2) carries out grade classification to Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index；
After determining evaluation index, the grade classification to each index is to carry out the essential step of Evaluation of vulnerability, according to this
The research object and domestic and international present Research of text are as shown in table 1 to the grade classification of vulnerability inder:
1 Evaluation of vulnerability index grade classification of table
Step 3) determines evaluation criterion weight；The establishment of Evaluation of vulnerability index weights is needed could be quasi- with analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Really obtain.Fragility is divided into nine classes and is respectively as follows: of equal importance, slightly important, critically important, extremely important, utmost importance, and
Other four kinds of grades of both adjacent median in above-mentioned five kinds.Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) judges with fragility rank, determines respectively
The index weights of a evaluation index.
Evaluation of vulnerability index weights are calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the specific method is as follows:
3.1) relationship between each index is analyzed, ladder level assessment indicator system is established；
3.2) structural matrix judges importance；Between the two relatively important is indicated with the digital element in matrix
Property, the evaluation index of more same rank, obtains the difference grade of relative importance two-by-two；
3.3) the n times root of the product of judgment matrix A row element is sought；Calculate the row element product M of judgment matrixiAnd seek its n times
Root, as
3.4) vector B is normalized, formula are as follows:
Wherein CiThe index weights of as required i；
3.5) Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix, calculation formula are asked are as follows:
Wherein, n is matrix order；
3.6) parameter coincident indicator k, calculation method are as follows:
Wherein, n is matrix order, and coincident indicator k is smaller, then the consistency possibility of judgment matrix is bigger；
3.7) inquiry judging matrix Aver-age Random Consistency Index value Y；
3.8) consistency ration, calculation method are calculated are as follows:
If Z < 0.1, then it is assumed that judgment matrix is with uniformity, if it does not meet the requirements, needs assignment calculating again.Until sentencing
Until the consistency of disconnected matrix meets the requirements.
Since the determination of Evaluation of vulnerability index to the experts and scholars of related fields by consulting on, keep result more smart
Really, the method for the present invention by inquiry obtains the related data of parameter weight.The object of investigation is long campaigns correlation neck
The expert and scholar studied in domain, their original opinions to region fragility own profound.
22 parts of valid data are obtained in this investigation, available after obtained data application analytic hierarchy process (AHP) processing
The multilevel iudge matrix two-by-two of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation index importance, as shown in table 2, table 3, table 4, table 5, table 6.
2 each index of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body appraisement system of table multilevel iudge matrix two-by-two
Each index of 3 population of table multilevel iudge matrix two-by-two
| Population | Population amount | The density of population | Weight |
| Population amount | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 |
| The density of population | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 |
The 4 each index of life line system engineering of table multilevel iudge matrix two-by-two
| Life line system engineering | Communications and transportation | Telecommunications | Life energy project | Weight |
| Communications and transportation | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.2000 | 0.1140 |
| Telecommunications | 3.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.4054 |
| Life energy project | 5.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 0.4806 |
The 5 each index of intrinsic wealth of table multilevel iudge matrix two-by-two
6 mankind of table create the wealth each index multilevel iudge matrix two-by-two
| The mankind create the wealth | Other industry total output values | Total industrial output value | The gross value of agricultural production | Weight |
| Other industry total output values | 1.0000 | 0.2500 | 2.0000 | 0.1929 |
| Total industrial output value | 4.0000 | 1.0000 | 6.0000 | 0.7010 |
| The gross value of agricultural production | 0.5000 | 0.1667 | 1.0000 | 0.1061 |
Determine in appraisement system single index weight in each level.According to the meter of weight in table 2, table 3, table 4, table 5, table 6
It calculates as a result, the weighted value for obtaining Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body single item evaluation index is as shown in table 7:
7 single item evaluation index weights of table
The present invention, to result integrated treatment, can satisfy in Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation using integrated risk index method
Single method evaluation conclusion consistency problem.
Formula (in 2) CiThe index weights of as required i；Then the typical value of loss caused by risk case is determined again.
Summation can arrive final result after each corresponding weighted value and loss typical value make product.
Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body model is according to integrated risk index mathematical model, it may be assumed that
R=f (P, L) (6)
In formula: R represents risk, self-explanatory characters thus occur a possibility that and severity；P is a possibility that accident occurs: L is accident
Severity.
The Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation model that the application is proposed is as follows:
M=∑ Ri(i=1,2,3 ... 12) (7)
In formula:
Ri=ai×bi(i=1,2,3 ... 12) (8)
Wherein aiIndicate the weighted value of certain loss, biFor the typical value of certain loss, the i.e. grade of index.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, all in essence of the invention
Within mind and principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on be should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method, it is characterised in that carry out in the following manner:
1) assessment indicator system is established, the principal element of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index system is: population, intrinsic wealth, people
Class creates the wealth, life line system engineering；
2) grade classification is carried out to Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body index；
3) evaluation criterion weight is determined；Evaluation of vulnerability index weights are calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the specific method is as follows:
3.1) relationship between each index is analyzed, ladder level assessment indicator system is established；
3.2) structural matrix judges importance；Relative importance between the two is indicated with the digital element in matrix,
The evaluation index of more same rank two-by-two obtains the difference grade of relative importance；
3.3) the n times root of the product of judgment matrix A row element is sought；Calculate the row element product M of judgment matrixiAnd its n times root is sought,
As
3.4) vector B is normalized, formula are as follows:
Wherein CiThe index weights of as required i；Then the typical value of loss caused by risk case is determined again.It is each corresponding
Summation can arrive Vulnerability Model after weighted value and loss typical value make product；
3.5) Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix, calculation formula are asked are as follows:
Wherein, n is matrix order；
3.6) parameter coincident indicator k, calculation method are as follows:
Wherein, n is matrix order, and coincident indicator k is smaller, then the consistency possibility of judgment matrix is bigger；
3.7) inquiry judging matrix Aver-age Random Consistency Index value Y；
3.8) consistency ration, calculation method are calculated are as follows:
If Z < 0.1, then it is assumed that judgment matrix is with uniformity, if it does not meet the requirements, needs assignment calculating again.Until judging square
Until the consistency of battle array meets the requirements.
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Cited By (3)
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| CN110909933A (en) * | 2019-11-20 | 2020-03-24 | 北京师范大学 | Agricultural drought rapid diagnosis and evaluation method coupling crop model and machine learning language |
| CN111191959A (en) * | 2020-01-08 | 2020-05-22 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Long-distance natural gas pipeline derivative disaster evaluation system and method |
| CN115239127A (en) * | 2022-07-20 | 2022-10-25 | 西南交通大学 | Ecological vulnerability evaluation method, computer device, storage medium and verification method |
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