CN103605897A - Regional landslide hazard risk assessment method - Google Patents
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- CN103605897A CN103605897A CN201310627906.1A CN201310627906A CN103605897A CN 103605897 A CN103605897 A CN 103605897A CN 201310627906 A CN201310627906 A CN 201310627906A CN 103605897 A CN103605897 A CN 103605897A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a regional landslide hazard risk assessment method which comprises the following steps: a regional landslide hazard risk assessment model is called; a risk assessment plug-in is created according to the regional landslide hazard risk assessment model; at least one disaster-gestating factor and at least one disaster-inducing factor of at least one landslide hazard site in a region of interest acquired from different data sources are input to the risk assessment plug-in, and at least one disaster-bearing body vulnerability evaluation factor is also input to the risk assessment plug-in. The risk assessment plug-in is used for executing the following operations that a landslide hazard sensibility index is calculated based on at least one disaster-gestating factor, a landslide hazard danger index is calculated based on the landslide hazard sensibility index and at least one disaster-inducing factor, a landslide hazard vulnerability index is calculated based on at least one disaster-bearing body vulnerability evaluation factor, a landslide hazard risk index is calculated based on the landslide hazard danger index and the landslide hazard vulnerability index, and a landslide hazard risk is assessed according to the calculated landslide hazard risk index.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method.
Background technology
Disaster is that energy exchange in celestial body, Earth Atmosphere System, the motion of matter are in an objective event of the ecosphere.Earth Atmosphere System ring layer is comprised of lithosphere, hydrosphere, air sphere, biosphere, and disaster organically combines by atmosphere disaster, biological epidemics and geologic hazard the system that forms mutually.
Take China as example, and physical geography, tectonic structure, topography and geomorphology and weather conditions are complicated, and geologic hazard is widely distributed, and type is many, frequency is high, intensity is large, are the most seriously one of countries of geologic hazard in the world.By the failure mode of geologic hazard, dynamic action, material, form and destroy speed and divide, Chinese Geological Disasters can be divided into 30 kinds of 10 classes, the type of different regions geologic hazard, assemblage characteristic and growth, the extent of injury are different, have obvious regional feature and regional change rule.From West to East, substantially take Helan Mountain-Liu Pan Shan-Longmenshan-sad firm mountain and Daxing'an Mountainrange-Taihang Mountain-Wuling Shan Mountain-Xuefeng Shan Mountain is boundary, be divided into San Ge great district (substantially close with three ladder boundaries of China map, slightly variant again), West is mountain region, plateau, height above sea level, depth of cut is large, geologic hazard is with earthquake, freeze thawing, landslide, rubble flow, desert turns to master, middle part is that plateau is to the zone of transition in Plain, landform is steep, cutting is violent, main growth earthquake, avalanche, landslide, rubble flow, soil erosion, desertification of land, ground deformation, Loess Collapsibility, the geologic hazards such as mine disaster, East is Plain and coastal zone and continental platform, and topographic relief is little, have a humid climate and rainfall amount abundant, important geologic hazard is earthquake, ground deformation, avalanche, landslide, rubble flow, lake, river disaster, seashore disaster, saline and alkaline, cold immersed field etc.
The distribution of geologic hazard and the extent of injury thereof and geologic setting condition, the meteorological hydrology and vegetation condition, human economy engineering activity and intensity thereof etc. have extremely close relation.Wherein, neotectonism is internal cause, and bad climate condition is main risk factor, and irrational human economy engineering activity aggravates the development degree of geologic hazard increasingly.In all geologic hazards, except earthquake, landslide and mud-stone flow disaster are comparatively outstanding, and landslide and rubble flow are two kinds of dissimilar many bulk movements.
Landslide disaster is as a subsystem of geologic hazard system, due to multiple inside and outside, sound factor interaction generation, the variation of disaster generating period time has obvious behavioral characteristics, and therefore, all to have the variation that dynamic perfromance causes calamity factor be to control the time dependent main cause of disaster.As the effect of topography and geomorphology, ground stone body and composite type, tectonic structure, geology physics chemical action and tax dis environment and economic activities of human beings, in addition, abnormal climate, concentrated rainfall, snow melt, river erosion, neotectonism, earthquake etc., accelerate the various calamity factor development and change, wherein maximum with the annual change amplitude of rainfall, mankind's activity that cause, the most frequently, the most extensive, behavioral characteristics is the most active.Therefore, topography and geomorphology, lithology, tectonic structure etc. are material bases, and rainfall, mankind's activity are to excite to control the principal element that landslide disaster changes.
The space distribution of Chinese Landslide disaster is subject to the control of geographic and geomorphic conditions, Regional Geological Conditions, rock soil mass types, specifically the property mass-sended and zonal feature.The physical features of China's Mainland reduces eastwards successively from west, forms three significant steps: first step is Qinghai-Tibet Platean, and second step is mountain region, middle part, and the 3rd step is Eastern Plain.The space distribution on landslide mainly occurs in the stepped-slope region of first step to second step and second step to the 3rd step transition, accounts for the more than 90% of landslide, whole nation sum.Regional tectonics especially activity structure has obvious impact to the distribution on landslide, and landslide is often ribbon along large Active Faults band and distributes, and is large Active Faults band rock crushing on the one hand, is easy to come down; On the other hand, the generation on a large amount of landslides is often brought out in the caused earthquake of Active Faults.The stratum occurring from landslide and rock set condition are analyzed, landslide often concentrates in the stratum of some features relatively, as the tonstein stratum of thousand pieces of stratum of schist, Clastic Stratum of Country Rocks, Loess Layer, half diagenesis, containing the carbonate strata of weak intercalated layer etc., become easily sliding stratum.Due to the Region control effect to Chinese landslide distribution of topography and geomorphology, tectonic structure and rock soil mass types, the region regularity on landslide is very obvious, and this Regional Characteristics is that landslide disaster evaluation of risk provides the foundation.
Landslide disaster is the one of the main reasons that causes water-caused soil loss in China, and soil erosion destroys ecologic environment, brings serial disaster to become Chinese No.1 environmental problem.
Summary of the invention
For solving problems of the prior art, the object of this invention is to provide a kind of Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method, the method comprises: call region landslide disaster risk estimation model; According to this Regional Landslide disaster risk estimation model, create evaluation of risk plug-in unit; At least one pregnant calamity factor at least one landslide disaster point in the area-of-interest obtaining from from different data sources to described evaluation of risk plug-in unit input causes the calamity factor with at least one, and inputs at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor; And described evaluation of risk plug-in unit is used for carrying out following operation: based on described at least one pregnant calamity factor, calculate landslide disaster susceptibility index; Based on described in described landslide disaster susceptibility exponential sum, at least one causes calamity factor calculating Landslide hazards index; Based on described at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor, calculate landslide disaster vulnerability index; Based on landslide disaster vulnerability index described in described Landslide hazards exponential sum, calculate landslide disaster risk index; And estimate landslide disaster risk according to the landslide disaster risk index calculating.
Other features and advantages of the present invention partly in detail are described the embodiment subsequently.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Accompanying drawing is to be used to provide a further understanding of the present invention, and forms a part for instructions, is used from explanation the present invention, but is not construed as limiting the invention with embodiment one below.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of landslide disaster evaluation of risk method according to the embodiment of the present invention; And
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of the step of evaluation of risk plug-in unit execution according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the present invention is elaborated.Should be understood that, embodiment described herein only, for description and interpretation the present invention, is not limited to the present invention.
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method according to the embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Figure 1, according to an embodiment of the invention, provide a kind of Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method, the method comprises:
Call region landslide disaster risk estimation model;
According to this Regional Landslide disaster risk estimation model, create evaluation of risk plug-in unit;
At least one pregnant calamity factor at least one landslide disaster point in the area-of-interest obtaining from from different data sources to described evaluation of risk plug-in unit input causes the calamity factor with at least one, and inputs at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor; And
Described evaluation of risk plug-in unit is for execution area landslide disaster evaluation of risk.
In embodiments of the present invention, can set up Regional Landslide disaster risk estimation model according to required function, and distribute ID with easy-to-look-up and call can to this model.In the preferred embodiment of the present invention, can carry out this model by the form of plug-in unit.Setting up Regional Landslide disaster risk estimation model modeling method used and program language can be method and the program language that programming those skilled in the art know.
In addition, the method can also comprise:
According to described evaluation of risk plug-in unit, produce user interface;
Described evaluation of risk plug-in unit is associated with described user interface.
Can carry out user interactions to trigger Plugin events by user interface, thereby enable/stop using this plug-in unit.
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of the step of evaluation of risk plug-in unit execution according to the embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Figure 2, specifically, evaluation of risk plug-in unit can be carried out following operation:
Based on described at least one pregnant calamity factor, calculate landslide disaster susceptibility index;
Based on described in described landslide disaster susceptibility exponential sum, at least one causes calamity factor calculating Landslide hazards index;
Based at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor, calculate landslide disaster vulnerability index;
Based on landslide disaster vulnerability index described in described Landslide hazards exponential sum, calculate landslide disaster risk index; And
According to the landslide disaster risk index calculating, estimate landslide disaster risk.
The pregnant calamity factor described here refers to and breeds physical environment and the humanistic environment that produces disaster, wherein for instance, the pregnant calamity factor can include but not limited to that the gradient, topographic relief degree, rock type, seismic zone distribute, active fault distributes, highway distributes, river distributes.
The described here calamity factor that causes refers to the factor that causes disaster to occur, for example, can include but not limited to earthquake, typhoon, storm etc.In embodiments of the present invention, thus the calamity factor be that rainfall intensity is described embodiments of the present invention.
Hazard-affected body described here refers to the object of disaster effect, is the society at the mankind and movable place thereof and the set of various resources.
Described different data source can be such as being some databases about weather, geology, weather etc. of having opened, such as NASA SRTM, geoscience data shared platform, Meteorological Science Data shared platform etc.
Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk of the present invention is based on a thought: landslide disaster is the pregnant calamity factor and causes the coefficient result of calamity factor pair hazard-affected body.Therefore,, when estimating disaster risk, can calculate the pregnant calamity factor and the impact that causes calamity factor pair disaster.
The impact of pregnant calamity factor pair risk disaster can represent with landslide disaster susceptibility index.For certain appointed area, calculating landslide disaster susceptibility index can comprise:
Described at least one pregnant calamity factor is normalized;
To each the pregnant calamity factor after processing, give weights;
Each pregnant calamity factor and corresponding weights are weighted to summation, to calculate described landslide disaster susceptibility index.
Because the impact of each pregnant calamity factor pair disaster occurrence risk is different, therefore, can to each pregnant calamity factor, give weights according to the impact of pregnant calamity factor pair disaster occurrence risk, to giving the pregnant calamity factor of weights, be weighted summation afterwards, can obtain landslide disaster susceptibility index.
The pregnant calamity factor and cause the calamity factor and jointly can represent with Landslide hazards index the impact of disaster occurrence risk.For certain appointed area, calculating Landslide hazards index can comprise:
By described in described landslide disaster susceptibility exponential sum, at least one causes the calamity factor and is multiplied by mutually and obtains described Landslide hazards index.Here, the processing that at least one is caused to the calamity factor is identical with the pregnant calamity factor, to causing the calamity factor, is normalized, and to the calamity factor that causes after processing, gives weights, and then weighted sum, finally multiplies each other the result obtaining and landslide disaster susceptibility index.
Similarly, calculating landslide disaster vulnerability index can comprise:
Described at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor is normalized;
To each the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor after processing, give weights;
Each hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor and corresponding weights are weighted to summation, to calculate described landslide disaster vulnerability index.
Above-mentioned to the pregnant calamity factor and/or cause the calamity factor and/or the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor to be normalized can be the method that well known to a person skilled in the art, its effect is that required multi-source data in estimating is carried out to nondimensionalization processing.The selection of weights can be based on separately the pregnant calamity factor/the cause influence degree of the calamity factor/hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor pair landslide disaster risk, this can come suitablely to determine according to historical data and/or statistics.The weights of the pregnant calamity factor for example considered and can equal 1.In addition weights that cause the calamity factor of considering, and can equal 1.
Landslide disaster vulnerability index represents that human socioeconomic system is to causing sensitivity (reflection) degree of the calamity factor.Conventionally fragility is larger, easily form the condition of a disaster after causing calamity, otherwise fragility is less, is difficult for forming the condition of a disaster after causing calamity.
Afterwards, landslide disaster vulnerability index described in described Landslide hazards exponential sum is multiplied by mutually and obtains described landslide disaster risk index.
Can to landslide disaster risk, estimate according to the landslide disaster risk index calculating.In an embodiment of the invention, can adopt that for example least variance method and factor set are legal in this landslide disaster risk index divided rank, generate landslide disaster risk class, for example devoid of risk, low-risk, risk, excessive risk, but it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that landslide disaster risk class divide can be not limited to cited.
In the above-described embodiment, the pregnant calamity factor, the determining of value that cause the calamity factor and the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor can be determined according to actual conditions are suitable.Introduce a kind of value of simplifying processing below and determine method.The gradient of take in the pregnant calamity factor is example, the gradient can be divided to some intervals from low to high, for example 4 intervals.These 4 intervals can be given respectively and are for example worth 0,1,2,3.For example, if one of them interval of the gradient of certain point-of-interest in area-of-interest, can be defined as the value of the gradient of this point-of-interest the corresponding value in fallen into interval (, 0,1,2,3 in).
Other pregnant calamity factors, cause the calamity factor and the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor also can be done similar processing with this.But it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the method for the determined value that can also have other.
In some applications, according to different demands, may need the landslide disaster risk of for example nationwide to estimate.In some other application, what may pay close attention to is the landslide disaster risk in provincial or city or scope at county level for example.Therefore, the scope of area-of-interest can be at least one of following scope: national scope; Provincial scope; City or scope at county level.
In different range of interest, the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor is also likely different.Take the whole country as example, and when landslide disaster evaluation of risk is carried out in nationwide, the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor of consideration can be for example the national density of population and/or gross domestic product (GDP) (GDP) density.Therefore the landslide disaster evaluation of risk method that, embodiments of the present invention provide can define:
In the situation that the scope of described area-of-interest is described national scope, the described hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor comprises at least one in the national density of population and gross domestic product (GDP) density;
In the situation that the scope of described area-of-interest is described provincial scope, the described hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor comprises population aggregative index in this area-of-interest and at least one in economic aggregative index;
In the situation that the scope of described area-of-interest is described city or scope at county level, the described hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor comprises at least one in being worth of the density of population in this area-of-interest and road.
The above-mentioned hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor of enumerating is from disclosed data source, to obtain.
The Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method that embodiments of the present invention provide, taking into full account on the basis of landslide disaster mechanism and distribution spatial and temporal pattern thereof, in conjunction with the pregnant calamity environmental characteristic of disaster, the comprehensive time of origin, scope, intensity etc. that cause the calamity factor of analyzing; Based on historical case data, by methods such as statistical study and probability analyses, analyze groundwater, cause the relation of the calamity factor and landslide disaster degree; Suitably choose some factors, determine the weight that each factor of influence is shared, calculate disaster risk index, finally carry out disaster risk class zoning.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that said method provided by the invention can realize with modular form by software programming.Applicable programming language can comprise such as but not limited to C language, VB, Java etc.Can also set up disaster risk estimation model etc. by XML technology.
Evaluation of risk method provided by the invention, for practical business demand, guaranteeing on scientific basis, take into full account current all kinds of science data (weather data, remote sensing image data, geologic data, terrain data, hydrographic data, crop type distribution and growth conditions data etc.) property obtained and degree of share, design and Implement the Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method towards mitigation business.Through tracking and checking for many years, model accuracy is higher, meets the business demand of owner unit.
Aspect risk of landslip estimation under national yardstick, from May 3rd, 2010 17Shi Qi， Ministry of Land and Resources, China Meteorological platform combine the forecast of issue geological hazard meteorological.Meanwhile, based on this technical method, make national geological disaster risk and estimate thematic product, by comparative analysis, two series products are basically identical to the space distribution scope of landslide disaster early warning.
Aspect risk of landslip estimation under regional scale, participate in the data of modeling, in the situation that fiducial interval is 95%, actual conditions are that 0 the judgment accuracy that landslide does not occur is 85.5%, actual conditions are that the judgment accuracy on 1 generation landslide is 74.4%, to modeling data, to sentence accuracy be 80.0% in total returning, and this illustrates that this technical method is to the good predictive ability of having of study area landslide disaster.
Below describe by reference to the accompanying drawings the preferred embodiment of the present invention in detail; but; the present invention is not limited to the detail in above-mentioned embodiment; within the scope of technical conceive of the present invention; can carry out multiple simple variant to technical scheme of the present invention, these simple variant all belong to protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that in addition each the concrete technical characterictic described in above-mentioned embodiment, in reconcilable situation, can combine by any suitable mode.For fear of unnecessary repetition, the present invention is to the explanation no longer separately of various possible array modes.
In addition, between various embodiment of the present invention, also can carry out combination in any, as long as it is without prejudice to thought of the present invention, it should be considered as content disclosed in this invention equally.
Claims (10)
1. a Regional Landslide disaster evaluation of risk method, the method comprises:
Call region landslide disaster risk estimation model;
According to this Regional Landslide disaster risk estimation model, create evaluation of risk plug-in unit;
At least one pregnant calamity factor at least one landslide disaster point in the area-of-interest obtaining from from different data sources to described evaluation of risk plug-in unit input causes the calamity factor with at least one, and inputs at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor; And
Described evaluation of risk plug-in unit is used for carrying out following operation:
Based on described at least one pregnant calamity factor, calculate landslide disaster susceptibility index;
Based on described in described landslide disaster susceptibility exponential sum, at least one causes calamity factor calculating Landslide hazards index;
Based on described at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor, calculate landslide disaster vulnerability index;
Based on landslide disaster vulnerability index described in described Landslide hazards exponential sum, calculate landslide disaster risk index; And
According to the landslide disaster risk index calculating, estimate landslide disaster risk.
2. method according to claim 1, the method also comprises:
According to described evaluation of risk plug-in unit, produce user interface;
Described evaluation of risk plug-in unit is associated with described user interface.
3. method according to claim 1, wherein, based on described at least one pregnant calamity factor, calculate landslide disaster susceptibility index and comprise:
Described at least one pregnant calamity factor is normalized;
To each the pregnant calamity factor after processing, give weights;
Each pregnant calamity factor and corresponding weights are weighted to summation, to calculate described landslide disaster susceptibility index.
4. method according to claim 1, wherein, based on described in described landslide disaster susceptibility exponential sum, at least one causes the calamity factor and calculates Landslide hazards index and comprise:
By described in described landslide disaster susceptibility exponential sum, at least one causes the calamity factor and is multiplied by mutually and obtains described Landslide hazards index.
5. method according to claim 1, wherein, based on described at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor, calculate landslide disaster vulnerability index and comprise:
Described at least one hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor is normalized;
To each the hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor after processing, give weights;
Each hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor and corresponding weights are weighted to summation, to calculate described landslide disaster vulnerability index.
6. method according to claim 1, wherein, based on landslide disaster vulnerability index described in described Landslide hazards exponential sum, calculate landslide disaster risk index and comprise:
Landslide disaster vulnerability index described in described Landslide hazards exponential sum is multiplied by mutually and obtains described landslide disaster risk index.
7. method according to claim 1, wherein, according to the landslide disaster risk index calculating, estimate that landslide disaster risk comprises:
Adopt least variance method and factor set is legal that described landslide disaster risk index is carried out to grade classification, to generate landslide disaster risk class.
8. method according to claim 1, wherein:
The described pregnant calamity factor comprises at least one in the following: the gradient, topographic relief degree, rock type, seismic zone distribute, active fault distributes, highway distributes, river distributes;
The described calamity factor that causes comprises at least one in the following: rainfall intensity, effective precipitation.
9. method according to claim 1, wherein, the scope of described area-of-interest is at least one of following scope:
National scope; Provincial scope; City or scope at county level.
10. method according to claim 9, wherein:
In the situation that the scope of described area-of-interest is described national scope, the described hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor comprises at least one in the national density of population and gross domestic product (GDP) density;
In the situation that the scope of described area-of-interest is described provincial scope, the described hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor comprises population aggregative index in this area-of-interest and at least one in economic aggregative index;
In the situation that the scope of described area-of-interest is described city or scope at county level, the described hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment factor comprises at least one in being worth of the density of population in this area-of-interest and road.
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| CN104299367A (en) * | 2014-10-23 | 2015-01-21 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Landslide hazard multi-stage comprehensive monitoring and early warning method |
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| CN107368938B (en) * | 2017-06-03 | 2021-09-21 | 中国人民解放军后勤工程学院 | Quantitative evaluation method for risk loss of single landslide |
| CN107368938A (en) * | 2017-06-03 | 2017-11-21 | 中国人民解放军后勤工程学院 | Quantitative evaluation method for risk loss of single landslide |
| CN109003422A (en) * | 2018-08-02 | 2018-12-14 | 北京大学深圳研究生院 | Monitoring data processing method and landslide forecasting procedure for landslide |
| CN109086935A (en) * | 2018-08-07 | 2018-12-25 | 中国地质环境监测院 | A kind of Prediction of Regional Geo-hazards method |
| CN109377067A (en) * | 2018-11-02 | 2019-02-22 | 河南工程学院 | A kind of Vulnerability of Regional Hazard Bearing Body evaluation method |
| CN110766235A (en) * | 2019-10-31 | 2020-02-07 | 黄淮学院 | Mountain collapse prediction method and system |
| CN113554345A (en) * | 2021-08-10 | 2021-10-26 | 山西省地震局 | Earthquake landslide disaster area and disaster chain risk assessment method |
| CN116504032A (en) * | 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-28 | 湖南科技大学 | Landslide hazard monitoring and early warning method and system based on live-action three-dimension |
| CN116504032B (en) * | 2023-06-28 | 2023-09-22 | 湖南科技大学 | Landslide hazard monitoring and early warning method and system based on live-action three-dimension |
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