CN117196321B - Nuclear power plant planning task probability risk calculation method and calculation device thereof - Google Patents
Nuclear power plant planning task probability risk calculation method and calculation device thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application provides a calculation method and a calculation device for probability risk of a planned task of a nuclear power plant, wherein the calculation method comprises the following steps: acquiring a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions, wherein the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to a group of minimum cut set equivalent models; splitting the planning task according to logic of the planning task to obtain a plurality of configuration change points; determining a system operation standby list condition of a plurality of configuration change points; if a plurality of unavailable equipment combinations which do not meet the rule exist in the system, calculating a risk value of the probability risk model in a reconstruction model solving mode; if a single device is unavailable or an unavailable device combination meeting the rule exists in the system, calculating a risk value according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalence models. The accuracy and the efficiency of probability risk calculation are improved by comprehensively using the re-solving method and the minimum cut-set method.
Description
Technical Field
The application belongs to the technical field of probability safety analysis of nuclear power plants, and particularly relates to a calculation method and a calculation device for probability risk of a planned task of a nuclear power plant.
Background
And the scientificity and the effectiveness of the nuclear safety management can be improved by carrying out configuration risk management on the nuclear power plant. In the risk monitoring management tool, the rapid analysis calculation of the probability risk is the core.
However, the probabilistic risk models used in the engineering of existing nuclear power plants are large-scale and highly complex. In a planning task scene, risk information of a plurality of different configuration change points needs to be calculated at one time, the calculated amount is very large, and the calculation time is long.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the embodiments of the present application are directed to providing a method and an apparatus for calculating probability risk of a planned task in a nuclear power plant, which implement a balance between accuracy and speed in the calculation of risk analysis of the planned task by using a re-solving method and a minimum cut-set method comprehensively, so as to improve accuracy and efficiency of calculation of probability risk.
The first aspect of the application provides a method for calculating probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions, wherein the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to a group of minimum cut set equivalent models; splitting the planning task according to logic of the planning task to obtain a plurality of configuration change points; determining a system operation standby list condition of a plurality of configuration change points; judging whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system and whether the unavailable device combination meets the rule is judged according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points; if a plurality of unavailable equipment combinations which do not meet the rule exist in the system, calculating a risk value of the probability risk model in a reconstruction model solving mode; if single equipment is unavailable or unavailable equipment combination meeting rules exists in the system, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions.
In the scheme, the risk value is calculated by adopting a reconstruction model solving mode or a minimum cut set equivalent model solving mode according to rule judgment, the re-solving method and the minimum cut set method are comprehensively used, the balance of precision and speed in the calculation of the planned task risk analysis is realized, the calculation tasks of different configuration points (namely, the condition that different equipment is not available in different time periods) are uniformly distributed on multiple threads, the analysis calculation of the multiple configuration points is completed in a parallel mode, and therefore, the risk value of the probability risk model can be obtained by quickly solving under enough calculation precision, and the calculation precision and the calculation efficiency in the configuration risk management process of daily operation and maintenance planning activities are ensured.
In a specific embodiment of the present application, the obtaining multiple sets of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to probability risk models under different working conditions includes: determining a system operation standby list situation affecting probability risk model logic according to a probability risk model under each working condition of the nuclear power unit, wherein each system operation standby list situation comprises a plurality of system operation standby list combinations; determining boundary conditions corresponding to a plurality of system operation standby column combinations; calculating to obtain a minimum cut set under a plurality of operation standby column combinations of each working condition according to boundary conditions corresponding to the plurality of system operation standby column combinations; and determining the minimum cut sets under the combination of a plurality of system operation standby columns of each working condition as a group of minimum cut set equivalent models so as to obtain a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models under different working conditions.
In one specific embodiment of the present application, the determining the system operation standby column situation affecting the probabilistic risk model logic includes: if the probability risk model has the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, determining a system operation standby column condition affecting the probability risk model logic according to the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure; and if the probability risk model does not have the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, determining that the equipment is in an operation state.
In a specific embodiment of the present application, calculating the risk value of the probabilistic risk model by using the method of solving the reconstruction model includes: determining boundary conditions of a probability risk model of the current working condition of the nuclear power unit; generating a first calculation task for solving the probability risk model according to the boundary condition of the probability risk model; and calculating a risk value according to the first calculation task.
In one embodiment of the present application, after the above-mentioned system operation standby column situation of determining a plurality of configuration change points, the computing method further includes: determining the operation, stop or fault state of equipment in the system according to the system operation standby list conditions of a plurality of configuration change points; and updating the state and probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system in the probability risk model according to the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment. According to the multiple groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model comprises the following steps: determining the standby state of the system operation under the current working condition of the nuclear power unit; screening a minimum cut set equivalent model corresponding to the system operation standby list condition under the current working condition; generating a second calculation task for solving the probability risk sharing model by using the minimum cut set equivalence model according to the state and probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system; and calculating a risk value according to the second calculation task.
In a specific embodiment of the present application, the calculating the risk value according to the second calculation task includes: if the target thread has no executing computing task, a second computing task is dispatched to the target thread.
In one specific embodiment of the present application, the calculation method further includes: and storing the risk value of the probability risk model into a risk monitoring case database.
The second aspect of the application provides a computing device for probability risk of a nuclear power plant, which comprises an acquisition module, a splitting module, a determining module, a judging module and a computing module. The acquisition module is used for acquiring a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions, and the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to a group of minimum cut set equivalent models. The splitting module is used for splitting the planning task according to logic of the planning task so as to obtain a plurality of configuration change points. The determining module is used for determining a system operation standby list condition of a plurality of configuration change points. The judging module is used for judging whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system and whether the unavailable device combination meets the rule or not according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points. The calculation module is used for calculating a risk value of the probability risk model in a reconstruction model solving mode if a plurality of unavailable equipment combinations which do not meet the rules exist in the system; if single equipment is unavailable or unavailable equipment combination meeting rules exists in the system, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions.
A third aspect of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon executable instructions of a computer. The executable instructions, when executed by the processor, implement a method for calculating a probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to the first aspect of the present application.
A fourth aspect of the present application provides an electronic device comprising a processor and a memory. The processor is configured to perform the method for calculating a probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to the first aspect of the present application. The memory is used to store executable instructions of the processor.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating a method for calculating probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a method for calculating probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to another embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a probability risk calculating device for a nuclear power plant according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 4 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The following description of the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be made clearly and completely with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present application, not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by one of ordinary skill in the art without undue burden from the present disclosure, are within the scope of the present disclosure.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating a method for calculating probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to an embodiment of the present application. The execution subject of the method may be a processor or a server or the like. As shown in fig. 1, the method includes the following steps.
S100: and obtaining a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions. The probability risk model corresponds to a group of least cut set equivalent models under the same working condition.
The probability risk model can reflect the configuration change condition of the nuclear power unit under a certain working condition. The subject of the probabilistic risk model can be an event tree and a fault tree model.
The different working conditions comprise a power operation working condition, a low-power and hot shutdown working condition, a bidirectional middle shutdown working condition, a normal shutdown working condition, a maintenance cold shutdown working condition with a small opening of a loop, a maintenance cold shutdown working condition with a large opening of the loop and the like. The probability risk model corresponds to a group of least cut set equivalent models under the same working condition. A set of minimal cut set equivalence models includes a plurality of minimal cut sets corresponding to a plurality of system run standby column combinations.
S200: the planning task is split according to logic of the planning task to obtain a plurality of configuration change points.
Specifically, when the risk evaluation of the planning task is performed in the risk monitoring system, the planning task can be split according to logic of the planning task, so that a plurality of different configuration change points are obtained.
In a planning task, there may be a plurality of device states that change, and the time points at which the states change may also differ. For example, assume that, in a planning task, three devices C1, C2, C3 in standby state sequentially enter a maintenance unavailable state, and the time points are T1, T2, T3 respectively; c3 is expected to resume standby at time T4, and C1, C2 resume standby at time T5. Then, according to the configuration conditions of the units at different moments, the following configuration change points can be determined: configuration change point 1: at the time T1, the equipment C1 is not available for maintenance, and the equipment C2 and C3 are in a standby state; configuration change point 2: at the time T2, the equipment C1 and C2 are not available for maintenance, and the equipment C3 is in a standby state; configuration change point 3: at time T3, equipment C1, C2, C3 is not available for maintenance; configuration change point 4: at the time T4, the equipment C1 and C2 are not available for maintenance, and the equipment C3 is in a standby state; configuration change point 5: at time T5, devices C1, C2, C3 are all in standby.
S300: a system operation standby column condition of a plurality of configuration change points is determined.
S400: judging whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system and whether the unavailable device combination meets the rule or not according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points.
Specifically, the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment in the system can be determined according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points, and whether a plurality of unavailable equipment exist in the system is judged according to the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment.
S500: if a plurality of unavailable equipment combinations which do not meet the rule exist in the system, calculating a risk value of the probability risk model in a reconstruction model solving mode.
The method of solving by using the reconstruction model may be simply referred to as a reconstruction method. In some embodiments, the recalculation may be performed for configuration points that need to be recalculated using a reconstruction model approach.
S600: if single equipment is unavailable or unavailable equipment combination meeting rules exists in the system, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions.
It should be noted that, the manner of calculating the risk value of the probability risk model based on the multiple sets of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions is simply referred to as a cut set method or a minimum cut set method.
For example, when the number of unavailable devices exceeds 1 (. Gtoreq.2), in general, calculation is performed using a pyrolysis method. And calculating the unavailable combination situation of the equipment in batches in advance, and determining some unavailable equipment combination scenes, wherein the minimum cut set result obtained by using a cut set method and a reconstruction method under the scenes is the same. These combinations are recorded as "rules" for discrimination. The equipment can not be combined in the range, and a cut-and-gather method is adopted; the unavailable quantity of the equipment is more than or equal to 2, and is not in the range, then adopting a pyrolysis method.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application, the risk value is calculated by judging a reconstruction model solving mode or a minimum cut set equivalent model solving mode according to rules, the re-solving method and the minimum cut set method are comprehensively used, balance of precision and speed in the calculation of the plan task risk analysis is realized, calculation tasks of different configuration points (namely, the condition that different equipment is unavailable in different time periods) are uniformly distributed to multiple threads, the analysis calculation of the multiple configuration points is completed in a parallel mode, and therefore the risk value of the probability risk model can be quickly solved under enough calculation precision, and the calculation precision and the calculation efficiency in the configuration risk management process of daily operation and maintenance plan activities are ensured.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a method for calculating probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to another embodiment of the present application. The embodiment shown in fig. 2 is a modification of the embodiment shown in fig. 1. As shown in fig. 2, steps S110 to S140 are different from the embodiment shown in fig. 1 in that they are a specific implementation of S100 in the embodiment shown in fig. 1.
S110: and determining the system operation standby list situation affecting the logic of the probability risk model according to the probability risk model under each working condition of the nuclear power unit, wherein each system operation standby list situation comprises a plurality of system operation standby list combinations.
It should be noted that, the operation standby state of these system devices is controlled by the atrial event in the fault tree logic structure, and the minimum cut-set result cannot embody the influence of the atrial event on the fault tree logic structure. For example, in some embodiments, if there is a room-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure in the probabilistic risk model, a system operation standby list condition affecting the probabilistic risk model logic is determined according to the room-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, for example, if the room-shaped event is false, the device is in an operation state, and if the room-shaped event is true, the device is in a standby state. For another example, in other embodiments, if the probabilistic risk model does not have a atrial event in the fault tree logic structure, then the probabilistic risk model may default to processing in a "false" (i.e., event not occurring) state, i.e., the device defaults to being in an operational state.
And forming a group of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to different combinations according to the combination situation of the standby columns of different operation of the system equipment. For both systems S1 and S2, there are a total of 6 combinations as follows. Combination 1: column A in the system S1 operates, and column B stands by; column a in system S2 is running and the other columns are ready for use. Combination 2: column A in the system S1 operates, and column B stands by; column B in system S2 is running and the other columns are ready for use. Combination 3: column A in the system S1 operates, and column B stands by; column C in system S2 is running and the other columns are ready for use. Combination 4: b column in the system S1 operates, and A column is reserved; column a in system S2 is running and the other columns are ready for use. Combination 5: b column in the system S1 operates, and A column is reserved; column B in system S2 is running and the other columns are ready for use. Combination 6: b column in the system S1 operates, and A column is reserved; column C in system S2 is running and the other columns are ready for use.
S120: boundary conditions corresponding to a plurality of system operation standby column combinations are determined. Boundary conditions refer to a set of atrial events and states of atrial events in a probabilistic risk model that employs a fault tree model.
The probability risk model mainly uses event tree and fault tree models. In the fault tree model, house-shaped events/switch events are included in addition to elements such as top events, middle events, bottom events, logic gates, etc. The house-shaped event has only 'true and false' state values, and the control of fault tree logic is realized by setting corresponding state values so as to reflect the current running configuration of the nuclear power unit. Boundary conditions are a set of atrial events and their states. These atrial events indicate that the system column or device is in an operational or standby state. Assuming a system with A, B columns, the atrial events HS1, HS2 represent A, B columns of spares, respectively. If the system A runs the B column for standby, the corresponding boundary conditions are: { HS1, false; HS2, true }.
S130: and calculating to obtain the minimum cut set under the multiple operation standby column combinations of each working condition according to boundary conditions corresponding to the multiple system operation standby column combinations.
S140: and determining the minimum cut sets under the combination of a plurality of system operation standby columns of each working condition as a group of minimum cut set equivalent models so as to obtain a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models under different working conditions.
Specifically, for different working conditions, the probability risk model logic is different, the operations from S110 to S130 are repeated, and the minimum cut set under the combination of a plurality of system operation standby columns of the same working condition is determined as a group of minimum cut set equivalent models, so that a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models under different working conditions can be obtained.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application, the minimum cut set with enough precision is calculated under the boundary condition corresponding to the system operation standby column combination by determining the system operation standby column condition affecting the probability risk model logic, so that a group of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to different system equipment operation standby column combinations are formed, and a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models under different working conditions are obtained.
In at least one embodiment of the present application, S510 to S530 are a specific implementation of S500 in the embodiment shown in fig. 1.
S510: and determining the boundary condition of a probability risk model of the current working condition of the nuclear power unit. Boundary conditions refer to a set of atrial events and states of atrial events in a probabilistic risk model that employs a fault tree model.
Note that the meaning of the boundary condition in step S510 refers to the description in step S120.
S520: and generating a first calculation task for solving the probability risk model according to the boundary condition of the probability risk model.
S530: and calculating a risk value according to the first calculation task.
It should be noted that, before S530, if there is no executing computing task on the target thread, the first computing task may be dispatched to the target thread.
In the embodiment of the application, the first calculation task for solving the probability risk model is generated by utilizing the boundary condition of the probability risk model of the current working condition of the nuclear power unit, so that the risk value of the probability risk model can be obtained through calculation according to the first calculation task, and a mode for solving the risk value of the probability risk model by adopting the reconstruction model is provided.
In at least one embodiment of the present application, after S300, the calculation method further includes S304 and S308. S610 to S640 are a specific implementation of S600 in the embodiment shown in fig. 1.
S304: and determining the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment in the system according to the system operation standby list conditions of a plurality of configuration change points.
S308: and updating the state and probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system in the probability risk model according to the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment.
S610: and determining the standby state of the system operation under the current working condition of the nuclear power unit.
S620: and screening a minimum cut set equivalent model corresponding to the system operation standby list condition under the current working condition.
S630: and generating a second calculation task for solving the probability risk sharing model by using the minimum cut set equivalence model according to the state and the probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system.
S640: if the target thread has no executing computing task, a second computing task is dispatched to the target thread.
S650: and calculating a risk value according to the second calculation task.
In the embodiment of the application, the basic event state and the probability value related to the equipment in the system in the probability risk model are updated according to the equipment operation, shutdown or fault conditions, and the influence on the related basic event is introduced when the risk value is calculated by adopting the minimum cut-set method, so that the calculated risk value has higher precision. In addition, if the target thread has no executing computing task, a second computing task is distributed to the target thread, so that the computing task is distributed according to the load condition, and the risk value calculation of all the computing tasks is achieved by utilizing the multi-thread parallel computing technology.
In at least one embodiment of the present application, after S500 and S600, the computing method further includes S700.
S700: and storing the risk value of the probability risk model into a risk monitoring case database.
In the embodiment of the application, the risk value of the probability risk model is stored in the risk monitoring case database, so that a user can call the risk value of the probability risk model at any time, and the monitoring of the change process of the risk value is facilitated.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a probability risk calculating device for a nuclear power plant according to an embodiment of the present application. As shown in fig. 3, the computing device 100 includes an acquisition module 110, a splitting module 120, a determination module 130, a discrimination module 140, and a computing module 150. The obtaining module 110 is configured to obtain multiple sets of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to probability risk models under different working conditions, where the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to one set of minimum cut set equivalent models. The splitting module 120 is configured to split the planning task according to logic of the planning task to obtain a plurality of configuration change points. The determining module 130 is configured to determine a system operation standby column status of the plurality of configuration change points. The judging module 140 is configured to judge whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system and whether the unavailable device combination satisfies the rule according to the system operation standby column conditions of the plurality of configuration change points. The calculating module 150 is configured to calculate a risk value of the probabilistic risk model by adopting a reconstruction model solving manner if there are a plurality of unavailable devices in the system and the unavailable device combination does not satisfy the rule; if single equipment is unavailable or unavailable equipment combination meeting rules exists in the system, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions.
It should be noted that, the computing device 100 is a computing device corresponding to the computing method for probability risk of a planned task of a nuclear power plant provided in the foregoing embodiment of the present application, so each module in the computing device 100 may implement a corresponding method, and the computing device may at least implement the foregoing corresponding technical effects, which is not described herein again.
Fig. 4 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Referring to fig. 4, the electronic device 10 includes a processor 11 and a memory 12. The memory 12 is used to store instructions, such as application programs, that are executable by the processor 11. The number of processors 11 may be one or more. The application program stored in the memory 12 may include one or more modules each corresponding to a set of instructions. Further, the processor 11 is configured to execute instructions to perform the above-described method of calculating a probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant.
The electronic device 10 may also include a power component configured for power management of the electronic device 10, a wired or wireless network interface configured to connect the electronic device 10 to a network, and an input output (I/O) interface. The electronic device 10 may operate based on an operating system stored in the memory 12, such as WindowsServer TM ，Mac OSX TM ，Unix TM ，Linux TM ，FreeBSD TM Or the like.
A non-transitory computer readable storage medium, which when executed by a processor of the electronic device 10, enables the electronic device 10 to perform a method of computing a probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant. The calculation method is performed by the agent program. The method for calculating the probability risk of the planned task of the nuclear power plant comprises the following steps: acquiring a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions, wherein the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to a group of minimum cut set equivalent models; splitting the planning task according to logic of the planning task to obtain a plurality of configuration change points; determining a system operation standby list condition of a plurality of configuration change points; judging whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points; if a plurality of unavailable equipment combinations which do not meet the rule exist in the system, calculating a risk value of the probability risk model in a reconstruction model solving mode; if single equipment is unavailable or unavailable equipment combination meeting rules exists in the system, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the solution. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present application.
In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed computing method and computing device may be implemented in other manners. For example, the above-described embodiments of the computing device are merely illustrative, e.g., the division of the modules is merely a logical functional division, and there may be additional divisions of actual implementation, e.g., multiple modules may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed.
The functions, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present application may be embodied essentially or in a part contributing to the prior art or in a part of the technical solution, in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, including several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the methods described in the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a usb disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program verification codes.
It will be clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the computing device and the electronic apparatus described above may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing computing method embodiments, which are not described herein again.
It should be noted that, the combination of the technical features in the embodiments of the present application is not limited to the combination described in the embodiments of the present application or the combination described in the specific embodiments, and all the technical features described in the present application may be freely combined or combined in any manner unless contradiction occurs between them.
The foregoing description of the preferred embodiments of the present invention is not intended to limit the invention to the precise form disclosed, and any modifications, equivalents, and alternatives falling within the spirit and principles of the present invention are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. The method for calculating the probability risk of the planned mission of the nuclear power plant is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
obtaining a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to probability risk models under different working conditions, including: determining a system operation standby list situation affecting probability risk model logic according to a probability risk model under each working condition of the nuclear power unit, wherein each system operation standby list situation comprises a plurality of system operation standby list combinations; determining boundary conditions corresponding to a plurality of system operation standby column combinations, wherein the boundary conditions comprise: if the probability risk model has a house-shaped event in a fault tree logic structure, determining a system operation standby list condition affecting the probability risk model logic according to the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, and if the probability risk model does not have the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, determining that equipment is in an operation state, wherein the boundary condition refers to a group of house-shaped events in the probability risk model adopting the fault tree model and the state of the house-shaped event; calculating to obtain a minimum cut set under a plurality of operation standby column combinations of each working condition according to boundary conditions corresponding to the plurality of system operation standby column combinations; determining the minimum cut sets under a plurality of system operation standby row combinations of each working condition as a group of minimum cut set equivalent models so as to obtain a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models under different working conditions, wherein the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to the group of minimum cut set equivalent models;
splitting the planning task according to logic of the planning task to obtain a plurality of configuration change points;
determining a system operation standby list condition of a plurality of configuration change points;
determining the operation, stop or fault state of equipment in the system according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points;
updating the state and probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system in the probability risk model according to the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment;
judging whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system and whether the unavailable device combination meets the rule is judged according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points;
if there are a plurality of unavailable devices in the system and unavailable device combinations which do not meet the rule, calculating a risk value of a probability risk model by adopting a reconstruction model solving mode, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining boundary conditions of a probability risk model of the current working condition of the nuclear power unit, wherein the boundary conditions refer to a group of house-shaped events and states of the house-shaped events in the probability risk model adopting a fault tree model; generating a first calculation task for solving the probability risk model according to the boundary condition of the probability risk model; calculating a risk value according to the first calculation task;
if single equipment is unavailable or unavailable equipment combination meeting rules exists in the system, calculating the risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein calculating the risk value of the probabilistic risk model according to the multiple sets of least-squares equivalent models corresponding to the probabilistic risk model under different conditions includes:
determining a standby system operation list condition of the nuclear power unit under the current working condition;
screening a minimum cut set equivalent model corresponding to the system operation standby list condition under the current working condition;
generating a second calculation task for solving a probability risk sharing model by utilizing the minimum cut set equivalent model according to the state and probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system;
and calculating a risk value according to the second calculation task.
3. The computing method according to claim 2, wherein the computing a risk value according to the second computing task includes:
and if the target thread has no executing computing task, dispatching the second computing task to the target thread.
4. A computing method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising:
and storing the risk value of the probability risk model into a risk monitoring case database.
5. A computing device for probability risk of a nuclear power plant, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk models under different working conditions, and comprises the following steps: determining a system operation standby list situation affecting probability risk model logic according to a probability risk model under each working condition of the nuclear power unit, wherein each system operation standby list situation comprises a plurality of system operation standby list combinations; determining boundary conditions corresponding to a plurality of system operation standby column combinations, wherein the boundary conditions comprise: if the probability risk model has the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, determining a system operation standby column condition affecting the probability risk model logic according to the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure; if the probability risk model does not have the house-shaped event in the fault tree logic structure, determining that the equipment is in an operating state, wherein the boundary condition refers to a group of house-shaped events in the probability risk model adopting the fault tree model and the state of the house-shaped events; calculating to obtain a minimum cut set under a plurality of operation standby column combinations of each working condition according to boundary conditions corresponding to the plurality of system operation standby column combinations; determining the minimum cut sets under a plurality of system operation standby row combinations of each working condition as a group of minimum cut set equivalent models so as to obtain a plurality of groups of minimum cut set equivalent models under different working conditions, wherein the probability risk models under the same working condition correspond to the group of minimum cut set equivalent models;
the splitting module is used for splitting the planning task according to logic of the planning task so as to obtain a plurality of configuration change points;
the determining module is used for determining the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points and determining the operation, stop or fault state of equipment in the system according to the system operation standby column conditions of the plurality of configuration change points; updating the state and probability value of the basic event related to the equipment in the system in the probability risk model according to the operation, stop or fault state of the equipment;
the judging module is used for judging whether a plurality of unavailable devices exist in the system and whether the unavailable device combination meets the rule or not according to the system operation standby column conditions of a plurality of configuration change points; and
the calculation module is used for calculating a risk value of the probability risk model in a reconstruction model solving mode if a plurality of unavailable equipment combinations which do not meet the rules exist in the system; if a single device is unavailable or unavailable device combinations meeting a rule exist in the system, calculating a risk value of the probability risk model according to a plurality of groups of least cut set equivalent models corresponding to the probability risk model under different working conditions, wherein the calculating the risk value of the probability risk model by adopting a reconstruction model solving mode comprises: determining boundary conditions of a probability risk model of the current working condition of the nuclear power unit, wherein the boundary conditions refer to a group of house-shaped events and states of the house-shaped events in the probability risk model adopting a fault tree model; generating a first calculation task for solving the probability risk model according to the boundary condition of the probability risk model; and calculating a risk value according to the first calculation task.
6. An electronic device, comprising:
a processor for performing the method for calculating a probability risk for a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to any one of claims 1 to 4; and
and the memory is used for storing executable instructions of the processor.
7. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon executable instructions of a computer, wherein the executable instructions when executed by a processor implement the method of calculating a probability risk of a planned mission of a nuclear power plant according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
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