CN116523139B - Electric power carbon reduction prediction method, device and storable medium - Google Patents
Electric power carbon reduction prediction method, device and storable medium Download PDFInfo
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- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 41
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 title claims abstract description 41
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 33
- CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon dioxide Chemical compound O=C=O CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims abstract description 86
- 238000010248 power generation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 46
- 229910002092 carbon dioxide Inorganic materials 0.000 claims abstract description 43
- 239000001569 carbon dioxide Substances 0.000 claims abstract description 43
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 31
- 238000005265 energy consumption Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 9
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for predicting electric power carbon reduction and a storable medium, and relates to the technical field of energy carbon reduction, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring total power generation amount and initial carbon dioxide emission amount required in a test area within a preset time, power generation amount, loss amount and corresponding carbon dioxide emission amount of a power system within the preset time, and new energy generation amount and energy conversion rate of new energy equipment within the preset time; the loss amount is adjusted to obtain an adjusted loss amount, and the adjusted required power generation amount is determined according to the total power generation amount and the adjusted loss amount; the invention can achieve balance between emission reduction and power generation efficiency, and improves the power grid management level of new energy sources in the region.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of energy carbon reduction, in particular to a method and a device for predicting electric power carbon reduction and a storable medium.
Background
At present, the carbon emission in the power industry is at the beginning of each industry, and the specific gravity of the generated energy of coal power is still larger. The most urgent need for carbon emission reduction is to replace coal-fired power generation by clean energy power generation, thereby reducing carbon emission in the power industry.
However, the existing power generation equipment still needs to use non-new energy to generate power, but in the process of gradually utilizing new energy to replace, if the new energy is replaced by new energy completely after pursuing zero emission, the new energy equipment has certain instability, so that the power generation capacity of the new energy equipment is lower, the used equipment is more, the occupied area is larger, and the power generation efficiency is reduced although a certain carbon emission can be reduced.
Therefore, how to provide a method for predicting the amount of carbon reduction of electric power, which can solve the above-mentioned problems, is a problem that a person skilled in the art needs to solve.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a method and a device for predicting the carbon reduction of electric power and a storable medium, which can achieve balance between emission reduction and power generation efficiency and improve the power grid management level of new energy sources in areas.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme:
an electric power carbon reduction prediction method includes the steps of:
acquiring total power generation amount and initial carbon dioxide emission amount required in a test area within a preset time, power generation amount, loss amount and corresponding carbon dioxide emission amount of a power system within the preset time, and new energy generation amount and energy conversion rate of new energy equipment within the preset time;
the loss is adjusted to obtain an adjusted loss, and the adjusted required power generation amount is determined according to the total power generation amount and the adjusted loss;
adjusting the number of the electric power systems according to the required generated energy and the energy conversion rate and determining the number of new energy equipment;
and calculating the carbon dioxide emission amount at the moment according to the adjusted number of the electric power systems, and comparing the carbon dioxide emission amount with the initial carbon dioxide emission amount to obtain the carbon reduction amount.
Preferably, the specific process of adjusting the number of the electric power systems according to the required power generation amount and the energy conversion rate includes:
obtaining the initial number of the required new energy equipment according to the new energy generating capacity, the energy conversion rate, the total generating capacity, the power system generating capacity and the adjusted loss;
and judging the relation between the initial quantity and a preset threshold value, and adjusting the initial quantity to obtain the final quantity of the new energy equipment and the quantity of the electric power system.
Preferably, the specific process of determining the relationship between the initial number and the preset threshold value and adjusting the initial number includes:
when the quantity is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value, determining the carbon emission quantity at the moment, and comparing the carbon emission quantity with the initial carbon dioxide emission quantity to obtain a carbon reduction quantity;
and when the number is greater than a preset threshold, solving the total power generation amount, the unit power generation amount and conversion rate of the new energy equipment and the unit power generation amount and conversion rate of the non-new energy equipment to obtain the number of the needed non-new energy equipment.
Preferably, the specific process of solving the generated energy, the unit generated energy and conversion rate of the new energy equipment and the unit generated energy and conversion rate of the non-new energy equipment when the number is greater than the preset threshold value includes:
constructing a discrimination model according to the number of the electric power systems, the generated energy of the electric power systems, the adjusted loss, the number of the new energy equipment and the energy conversion rate;
and solving the discrimination model to obtain the number of the new energy devices and the number of the electric power systems.
Preferably, the power generation amount and the loss amount of the power system are obtained, and meanwhile, the corresponding energy consumption amount is obtained, and the initial carbon dioxide emission amount is determined according to the energy consumption amount.
Preferably, according to the number of the adjusted power systems, the corresponding adjusted energy consumption is obtained at the same time, and the carbon dioxide emission at the moment is calculated according to the adjusted energy consumption.
The invention also provides a prediction device using the electric power carbon reduction prediction method, which comprises the following steps: the device comprises a first acquisition module, a second acquisition module, a third acquisition module and a calculation module, wherein the first acquisition module, the second acquisition module and the third acquisition module are all connected with the calculation module;
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the total generated energy and the initial carbon dioxide emission required by the test area in a preset time, and the generated energy, the loss and the corresponding carbon dioxide emission of the electric power system in the preset time;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the new energy generating capacity and the energy conversion rate of the new energy equipment in the preset time;
the third acquisition module is used for adjusting the number of the electric power systems according to the energy conversion rate and the total power generation amount and determining the number of new energy equipment;
the calculation module is used for calculating the carbon dioxide emission at the moment according to the adjusted number of the new energy devices and the adjusted number of the electric power systems, and comparing the carbon dioxide emission with the initial carbon dioxide emission to obtain the carbon reduction.
The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the power reduction prediction method as set forth in any one of the above.
Compared with the prior art, the method, the device and the storable medium for predicting the carbon reduction amount of the electric power are disclosed, the predicted carbon reduction amount is obtained according to the difference between the total carbon emission before the electric power system is replaced and the carbon emission after the new energy equipment is replaced, the number of the electric power systems, the power generation loss of the electric power systems and the number of the new energy equipment are adjusted, meanwhile, the instability of the new energy equipment is considered, balance between carbon dioxide emission reduction and overall power generation efficiency can be achieved, and the overall management level of new energy and the electric power systems in the area is improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and that other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is an overall flow chart of a method for predicting the amount of carbon reduction of electric power provided by the invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic block diagram of a power carbon reduction prediction device according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the embodiment of the invention discloses a method for predicting the carbon reduction of electric power, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring total power generation amount and initial carbon dioxide emission amount required in a test area within a preset time, power generation amount, loss amount and corresponding carbon dioxide emission amount of a power system within the preset time, and new energy generation amount and energy conversion rate of new energy equipment within the preset time;
the loss is adjusted to obtain an adjusted loss, and the adjusted required power generation amount is determined according to the total power generation amount and the adjusted loss;
adjusting the number of the power systems according to the required generated energy and the energy conversion rate and determining the number of new energy equipment;
and calculating the carbon dioxide emission amount at the moment according to the number of the adjusted power systems, and comparing the carbon dioxide emission amount with the initial carbon dioxide emission amount to obtain the carbon reduction amount.
Specifically, the loss amount includes line loss and scheduling loss, and the scheduling loss is mainly processed in an optimization manner, and the specific process includes:
acquiring power generation scheduling parameters of a power system and historical power generation data of the power system in a test area, and constructing an initial scheduling model;
after the number of the new energy devices is determined, taking the digestion capacity, the power balance, the carbon emission and the unit constraint of the power system of the new energy devices as targets, and carrying out normalization processing after setting parameter values on the targets;
and solving the initial scheduling model by using a normalized result to obtain an adjusted loss amount, and obtaining reduced loss according to the adjusted loss amount and the original loss amount.
In one particular embodiment, the specific process of adjusting the number of electrical systems based on the desired power generation, energy conversion, includes:
obtaining the initial number of the required new energy equipment according to the new energy generating capacity, the energy conversion rate, the total generating capacity, the electric power system generating capacity and the adjusted loss;
judging the relation between the initial quantity and a preset threshold value, and adjusting the initial quantity to obtain the quantity of the final new energy equipment and the quantity of the power system.
In a specific embodiment, the specific process of determining the relationship between the initial number and the preset threshold value and adjusting the initial number includes:
when the quantity is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value, determining the carbon emission quantity at the moment, and comparing the carbon emission quantity with the initial carbon dioxide emission quantity to obtain a carbon reduction quantity;
and when the number is greater than a preset threshold, solving the total power generation amount, the unit power generation amount and conversion rate of the new energy equipment and the unit power generation amount and conversion rate of the non-new energy equipment to obtain the number of the needed non-new energy equipment.
In a specific embodiment, the specific process of solving the generated energy, the unit generated energy and the conversion rate of the new energy device and the unit generated energy and the conversion rate of the non-new energy device when the number is greater than the preset threshold value includes:
constructing a discrimination model according to the number of the electric power systems, the generated energy of the electric power systems, the adjusted loss, the number of new energy equipment and the energy conversion rate;
and solving the discrimination model to obtain the number of new energy devices and the number of electric power systems.
In a specific embodiment, the power generation amount and the loss amount of the power system are obtained, the corresponding energy consumption amount is obtained at the same time, and the initial carbon dioxide emission amount is determined according to the energy consumption amount.
In a specific embodiment, the corresponding adjusted energy consumption is obtained simultaneously according to the number of the adjusted power systems, and the carbon dioxide emission at this time is calculated according to the adjusted energy consumption.
Referring to fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a prediction apparatus using the method for predicting an amount of carbon reduction in electric power according to any one of the above embodiments, including: the system comprises a first acquisition module, a second acquisition module, a third acquisition module and a calculation module, wherein the first acquisition module, the second acquisition module and the third acquisition module are all connected with the calculation module;
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the total power generation amount and the initial carbon dioxide emission amount required by the test area in the preset time, and the power generation amount, the loss amount and the corresponding carbon dioxide emission amount of the power system in the preset time;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring new energy generating capacity and energy conversion rate of the new energy equipment in a preset time;
the third acquisition module is used for adjusting the number of the power systems according to the energy conversion rate and the total power generation amount and determining the number of new energy equipment;
the calculation module is used for calculating the carbon dioxide emission at the moment according to the number of the new energy devices and the number of the power systems after adjustment, and comparing the carbon dioxide emission with the initial carbon dioxide emission to obtain the carbon reduction.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which when executed by a processor, implements the method for predicting the amount of carbon reduction of electric power according to any one of the above embodiments.
In the present specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment is mainly described in a different point from other embodiments, and identical and similar parts between the embodiments are all enough to refer to each other. For the device disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant points refer to the description of the method section.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (5)
1. The electric power carbon reduction prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring total power generation amount and initial carbon dioxide emission amount required in a test area within a preset time, power generation amount, loss amount and corresponding carbon dioxide emission amount of a power system within the preset time, and new energy generation amount and energy conversion rate of new energy equipment within the preset time;
the loss is adjusted to obtain an adjusted loss, and the adjusted required power generation amount is determined according to the total power generation amount and the adjusted loss;
the quantity of the electric power system is adjusted according to the required generated energy and the energy conversion rate, and the quantity of new energy equipment is determined, and the specific process comprises the following steps:
obtaining the initial number of the required new energy equipment according to the new energy generating capacity, the energy conversion rate, the total generating capacity, the power system generating capacity and the adjusted loss;
judging the relation between the initial quantity and a preset threshold value, and adjusting the initial quantity to obtain the final quantity of the new energy equipment and the final quantity of the power system, wherein the specific processing process comprises the following steps:
when the quantity is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value, determining the carbon emission quantity at the moment, and comparing the carbon emission quantity with the initial carbon dioxide emission quantity to obtain a carbon reduction quantity;
when the number is greater than a preset threshold, solving the total power generation amount, the unit power generation amount and conversion rate of the new energy equipment and the unit power generation amount and conversion rate of the non-new energy equipment to obtain the number of the required non-new energy equipment, wherein the specific processing process comprises the following steps:
constructing a discrimination model according to the number of the electric power systems, the generated energy of the electric power systems, the adjusted loss, the number of the new energy equipment and the energy conversion rate;
solving the discrimination model to obtain the number of the new energy devices and the number of the electric power systems;
and calculating the carbon dioxide emission amount at the moment according to the adjusted number of the electric power systems, and comparing the carbon dioxide emission amount with the initial carbon dioxide emission amount to obtain the carbon reduction amount.
2. The method for predicting the carbon dioxide emission of the electric power according to claim 1, wherein the electric power generation amount and the loss amount of the electric power system are obtained, and the corresponding energy consumption amount is obtained at the same time, and the initial carbon dioxide emission amount is determined according to the energy consumption amount.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the corresponding adjusted energy consumption is obtained simultaneously according to the adjusted number of the electric power systems, and the carbon dioxide emission at that time is calculated according to the adjusted energy consumption.
4. A prediction apparatus using the electric power carbon reduction prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized by comprising: the device comprises a first acquisition module, a second acquisition module, a third acquisition module and a calculation module, wherein the first acquisition module, the second acquisition module and the third acquisition module are all connected with the calculation module;
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the total generated energy and the initial carbon dioxide emission required by the test area in a preset time, and the generated energy, the loss and the corresponding carbon dioxide emission of the electric power system in the preset time;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the new energy generating capacity and the energy conversion rate of the new energy equipment in the preset time; the third acquisition module is used for adjusting the number of the electric power systems according to the energy conversion rate and the total power generation amount and determining the number of new energy equipment;
the calculation module is used for calculating the carbon dioxide emission at the moment according to the adjusted number of the new energy devices and the adjusted number of the electric power systems, and comparing the carbon dioxide emission with the initial carbon dioxide emission to obtain the carbon reduction.
5. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium has stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the power reduction prediction method according to any one of claims 1-3.
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