CN112800625A - Method and system for determining full-clean power supply operation boundary of regional power grid - Google Patents
Method and system for determining full-clean power supply operation boundary of regional power grid Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for determining a full-clean power supply operation boundary of a regional power grid, wherein the first-order sensitivity of a thermal power starting influence regional power grid risk assessment value of each year is calculated from the beginning year, and the second-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk assessment value changing with the year is calculated based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk; and if the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold value, the year is a boundary year for implementing the full-clean power supply, and the thermal power can be shut down from the boundary year to the terminal year. According to the method, the influence of the thermal power generating unit after the thermal power generating unit is withdrawn is represented by the change of safety and abundance risks, the effect of the thermal power generating unit in a power grid can be more reasonably quantized, and the shutdown time of the thermal power generating unit is specified to the year.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid planning, and relates to a method and a system for determining a full-clean power supply operation boundary of a regional power grid.
Background
The energy and power relation of the nationality is important basis for the development of the economic society. The problems of energy exhaustion, climate change, environmental safety and the like make the clean substitution of energy become a global consensus. An electric power system is a core link of an energy chain, and China is taking the electric power system as a core support to construct a novel clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. In the face of pressure such as resource exhaustion, environmental pollution, climate change, etc., clean transformation of all energy sources in the global scope has become an irreversible trend.
The development of the near-zero output operation control technology, the energy storage participating frequency modulation and voltage regulation technology and the like of the conventional thermal power generating unit in the load center enables the essential type full-clean power supply to be possible. Under the conditions of new energy output, incoming water and load fluctuation, how to define boundary conditions of full-clean power supply and what control measures can relax the boundary are all problems to be researched urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problem of boundary determination of full-clean power supply of a regional power grid, and provides a method and a system for determining a boundary of operation of full-clean power supply of the regional power grid.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme to realize the technical purpose, and provides a method for determining the operation boundary of the full-clean power supply of a regional power grid, which comprises the following steps: calculating the first-order sensitivity of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area of each year from the initial year, and calculating the second-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk assessment value changing with the year based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk; and if the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold value, the year is a boundary year for implementing the full-clean power supply, and the thermal power can be shut down from the boundary year to the terminal year.
The technical scheme is further characterized in that: the method further comprises the following steps: and performing operation dimension boundary calculation on each year from the initial year to the boundary time, and determining the operation conditions which can be met by implementing full-clean power supply in each year.
The technical scheme is further characterized in that: the specific method for calculating the operation dimension boundary of each year between the initial year and the boundary time and determining the operation condition which can be met by implementing full-clean power supply in each year comprises the following steps:
respectively taking out each selected full-cleaning power supply mode and the initial boundary of the load from the acquired annual full-cleaning power supply modes;
respectively optimizing the control measures of the operation modes under the extracted initial boundaries;
under the optimal condition of control measures, respectively solving all full-clean power supply modes meeting risk limit values and the minimum value and the maximum value of the load to obtain the value range of the operation boundary of each full-clean power supply mode and the value range of the operation boundary of the load; and determining the intersection of the value ranges of all the operation boundaries and taking the intersection as the operation dimension boundary of the full-clean power supply in the year, wherein the operation dimension boundary is the operation condition which can be met by the full-clean power supply in each year.
The technical scheme is further characterized in that: the method for calculating the first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area in the nth year comprises the following steps:
α(n)＝CA(n)-CB(n)
in the formula: cA(n) representing the risk assessment value of the power grid in the working condition thermal power full stop mode; cBAnd (n) represents the risk assessment value of the power grid in the initial mode of the working condition.
Calculating second-order sensitivity beta of thermal power on influence risk changing with the year as a derivative of first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the power grid risk evaluation value of the electric power on influence area with the time:
in the formula: and t represents the operation year of the thermal power starting mode.
In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a system for determining a boundary of a full clean power supply operation of a regional power grid, including: a first order sensitivity determination module, a second order sensitivity determination module, and a time boundary determination module,
the first-order sensitivity determining module is used for calculating the first-order sensitivity of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area of each year from the initial year;
calculating the second-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk evaluation value changing along with the year based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk;
and the time boundary determining module is used for judging that the year is a boundary year for implementing the full-clean power supply if the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than a threshold value, and the thermal power can be shut down from the boundary year to the terminal year.
The technical scheme is further characterized in that: the system further comprises an operation dimension boundary determining module, wherein the operation dimension boundary determining module is used for calculating operation dimension boundaries of all years from the initial year to the boundary time and determining operation conditions which can be met by the implementation of full-clean power supply of all years.
The present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, and the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for determining the boundary of operation of full clean power supply of regional power grid as provided in any one of the possible embodiments of the above technical solutions.
The present invention also provides a computer program product characterized in that it comprises operations which, when loaded and executed on a computer system, cause said computer system to implement said one regional power grid full clean power supply operation boundary determination method as provided according to any one of the possible embodiments of the above technical solution.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the research is carried out aiming at the power supply boundary in the regional power grid full-clean power supply transformation. According to the invention, the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power on influencing risk change and the second-order sensitivity of the risk change relative to time are defined through the time dimension, so that the boundary time of the implementation of full-clean power supply is obtained, and thermal power can be turned off and off in the year and all the years after the year. The influence of the thermal power generating unit after the thermal power generating unit is withdrawn is represented by the change of safety and abundance risks, the effect of the thermal power generating unit in a power grid can be more reasonably quantized, and the shutdown time of the thermal power generating unit is specified to the year. Furthermore, for the years that the thermal power generating unit is not completely shut down, an operation boundary solving method considering control measures is provided, and a full-clean power supply time period meeting operation boundary conditions can be accurately given.
Further, in order to optimize the operation boundary of the full-clean power supply of the regional power grid, the invention provides a two-layer optimization model of the full-clean power supply boundary based on the operation dimension-time dimension. The time dimension defines the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power on influencing the risk change and the second-order sensitivity of the risk change relative to the time to obtain the boundary time of the implementation of the full clean power supply, and the thermal power can be turned off in the year and all the years after the year. For the years which do not meet the implementation of the full-clean power supply, the safety and the abundance risks of the power grid under the full-clean power supply operation mode and the uncertain boundary of the load are respectively considered, the control measure effect is considered, the operation dimensional boundary of the full-clean power supply is obtained under the constraint of the risk threshold, and the thermal power can be shut down only in the time period when the values of new energy, water and electricity, energy storage and load meet the operation boundary conditions in the year. The method is suitable for a power supply transformation plan of the regional power grid with full clean energy, and guides the power grid to schedule and make an operation control boundary.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in detail below with reference to the figures and specific embodiments.
Example 1: a method for determining the operation boundary of full-clean power supply of a regional power grid comprises the following steps: calculating the first-order sensitivity of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area of each year from the initial year, and calculating the second-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk assessment value changing with the year based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk; and judging that the year is a boundary year of the implementation of the full-clean power supply if the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold, and stopping thermal power from the boundary year to the terminal year.
In this embodiment, the grid risk assessment value is determined by using the prior art. The conventional method in the field comprises the steps of obtaining a power grid annual typical mode, generating corresponding full-clean power supply mode data, and performing abundant risk assessment and safety risk assessment on the power grid annual typical mode data and the full-clean power supply mode data to obtain a power grid risk assessment value.
The method realizes the determination of the operation boundary of the full-clean power supply of the regional power grid in the time dimension, and optimizes the boundary time of the regional power grid for implementing the full-clean energy power supply in the future (namely the critical time of the full-clean power supply can be met at the earliest).
In a specific embodiment, generating a full clean power supply working condition means that generating corresponding full clean power supply mode data requires shutting down a thermal power unit in the area, and active power output lost when shutting down the thermal power unit is borne by a clean power unit in the area (including a new energy unit and a hydroelectric power unit, but the output upper limit of the unit should not be exceeded).
In this embodiment, the first-order sensitivity α (n) of the influence of the thermal power on in the nth year is defined:
α(n)＝CA(n)-CB(n)
in the formula: cA(n) representing the risk assessment value of the power grid in the working condition thermal power full stop mode; cBAnd (n) represents the risk assessment value of the power grid in the initial mode of the working condition.
Defining the second-order sensitivity beta of the thermal power-on influence risk changing with the year as the derivative of the first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the electrical power-on influence with the time:
in the formula: t represents the year the mode is operating.
The year when the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold value is the time for realizing the full-clean power supply boundary, and the second-order sensitivity threshold value represents that the system operation risk basically does not fluctuate greatly along with the lapse of the year along with the influence of the shutdown of the thermal power unit, namely the influence of the shutdown of the thermal power unit is within an acceptable, replaceable and controllable range.
Example 2:
the embodiment discloses a method for determining a regional power grid full-clean power supply operation boundary, which is used for solving an energy transformation optimization problem, such as national/regional full-clean energy transformation strategic optimization. The main steps are shown in figure 1.
Step 1: acquiring a typical annual mode of a power grid, and generating a corresponding full-clean power supply mode;
the generation of a full-clean power supply working condition requires the shutdown of the thermal power generating unit in the area, and the loss active power output of the shutdown thermal power generating unit is borne by the clean power generating unit in the area (including a new energy unit and a hydroelectric power generating unit, but the output upper limit of the unit should not be exceeded).
Step 2: step 1, taking out annual typical mode data and full-clean power supply mode data, and performing abundant risk assessment and safety risk assessment on the annual typical mode data and the full-clean power supply mode data to obtain a risk assessment value;
calculating the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk change in the year, and defining the first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the thermal power starting influence in the nth year:
α(n)＝CA(n)-CB(n)
in the formula: cA(n) representing the risk assessment value of the power grid in the working condition thermal power full stop mode; cBAnd (n) represents the risk assessment value of the power grid in the initial mode of the working condition.
And calculating second-order sensitivity of the thermal power-on influence risk along with the change of the thermal power-on influence risk in the year based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power-on influence risk, wherein the year with the second-order sensitivity value smaller than the threshold value is the boundary time of the implementation of the full-clean power supply.
Defining the second-order sensitivity beta of the thermal power-on influence risk changing with the year as the derivative of the first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the electrical power-on influence with the time:
in the formula: t represents the year the mode is operating.
The year when the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold value is the boundary time for realizing full-clean power supply, and thermal power can be turned off from the boundary year to the terminal year. The second-order sensitivity threshold value represents that the system operation risk basically does not fluctuate greatly along with the influence of the thermal power unit shutdown, namely the influence of the thermal power unit shutdown is within an acceptable, replaceable and controllable range.
And judging that the year is a boundary year of the implementation of the full-clean power supply if the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold, and stopping thermal power from the boundary year to the terminal year.
And step 3: and performing operation dimension boundary calculation on the year between the initial year and the boundary time to determine the operation condition which can be met by the full clean power supply implementation requirement of the year. Taking out all the full-clean power supply modes (the full-clean power supply mode in the embodiment comprises new energy, hydropower and energy storage, and the full-clean power supply mode can be determined according to needs in other embodiments) and the initial boundary of the load from the generated full-clean power supply modes; the full clean power supply modes and the full range of loads should be as comprehensive as possible to obtain more accurate results of the full clean power supply operation boundary.
And evaluating the operation abundance and safety risk of the power grid according to the taken all-clean power supply modes and the operation mode under the initial load boundary, and optimizing the control measures.
In the embodiment, the prior art is adopted to realize optimization of control measures. The method comprises the steps of finding the optimal control measures for reducing the risk of the power grid through the safety and stability quantitative analysis and optimization decision of the power system (a FASTEST software strategy optimization module is used in the scheme), and converting transient and stable safety risk, frequency modulation and peak regulation risk existing in the power grid into quantitative economic loss by referring to a method for evaluating the abundance risk and safety risk of the power grid in the patent with the patent number of 202010581229.4.
Transient security risk is defined as:
wherein: p is a radical ofu(j) Representing the probability of occurrence of the j-th transient fault; cm(j) The economic loss of emergency control unit measure quantity is shown after the jth line fails; n indicates that the transient safety margin with N faults is negative, and T indicates the time taken by the emergency control measure.
The risk of fm-capability degradation is defined as: a. thef＝Poffer(pw-fαf+pe-fβf)
Wherein: pofferThe maximum adjustment load amplitude limit which represents the reduction of the power grid after the thermal power generating unit exits; p is a radical ofw-fRepresenting the price of the compensation unit frequency modulation capacity of the local hydroelectric generating set; alpha is alphafIndicating the compensated frequency modulation capacity of the hydroelectric generating set; p is a radical ofe-fThe price of the compensation unit frequency modulation capacity of the out-of-province frequency modulation resources is represented; beta is afIndicating the fm capacity of the out-of-province fm resource compensation.
The risk of fm-capability degradation is defined as: a. theα＝αg(pw-gαw+pe-gβe)
Wherein: alpha is alphagRepresenting the peak regulation amplitude of the thermal power generating unit; p is a radical ofw-gRepresenting the price of the compensation unit peak regulation capacity of the local hydroelectric generating set; alpha is alphawRepresenting the peak shaving capacity compensated by the hydroelectric generating set; p is a radical ofe-gThe price of the compensation unit peak shaving capacity of the out-of-province peak shaving resources is represented; beta is aeIndicating the peak shaving capacity of the out-of-province peak shaving resource compensation.
Under the optimal condition of control measures, respectively solving the minimum and maximum values of new energy, water and electricity, energy storage and load which accord with risk limit values;
in this embodiment, a risk threshold is set according to the annual economic loss, and the value depends on the judgment of the power grid operator on the current power grid development stage and the acceptable risk degree. If the risk assessment value calculated by the method exceeds the risk threshold value, the range of the boundary among the new energy, the hydropower, the stored energy and the load in the method is out-of-limit, optimization calculation is needed until the maximum value range of the new energy, the hydropower, the stored energy and the load, in which the power grid risk assessment value is not out-of-limit (namely, not exceeding the risk threshold value), is obtained. It should be noted that in other embodiments, other risk thresholds may be determined using existing techniques, and are not limited herein.
After the value ranges of 4 kinds of operation boundaries including new energy, hydropower, stored energy and load are all calculated, the coordinate system modeling is performed on the value ranges of the new energy, the hydropower, the stored energy and the load in all the satisfactory modes, and the intersection of all the obtained value ranges is the operation dimensional boundary of the all-clean power supply in the year. The model boundary is the operational boundary of the full clean power supply of the year. And in the time period that new energy, water and electricity, stored energy and load values meet the operation boundary conditions in the year, the thermal power can be shut down.
The embodiment provides a full clean power supply boundary two-layer optimization model based on an operation dimension-time dimension. The time dimension defines the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power on influencing the risk change and the second-order sensitivity of the risk change relative to the time to obtain the boundary time of the implementation of the full clean power supply, and the thermal power can be turned off in the year and all the years after the year. For the years which do not meet the implementation of the full-clean power supply, the safety and the abundance risk of the power grid under the uncertain boundary of new energy, hydropower, energy storage and load are respectively considered, the control measure effect is considered, the operation dimensional boundary of the full-clean power supply is obtained under the constraint of a risk threshold, and the thermal power supply can be shut down only in the time period when the values of the new energy, the hydropower, the energy storage and the load meet the operation boundary conditions in the year. The method is suitable for a power supply transformation plan of the regional power grid with full clean energy, and guides the power grid to schedule and make an operation control boundary.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
While the present invention has been described with reference to the embodiments shown in the drawings, the present invention is not limited to the embodiments, which are illustrative and not restrictive, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications can be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined in the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining the operation boundary of full-clean power supply of a regional power grid is characterized by comprising the following steps: calculating the first-order sensitivity of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area of each year from the initial year;
calculating second-order sensitivity of the thermal power on influence risk evaluation value changing with the year based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power on influence risk;
if the second-order sensitivity value is less than the threshold, then the year is taken as the boundary year of the full clean power implementation.
2. The method for determining the operation boundary of the regional power grid with full clean power supply according to claim 1, further comprising: and performing operation dimension boundary calculation on each year from the initial year to the boundary time, and determining the operation conditions which can be met by implementing full-clean power supply in each year.
3. The method for determining the operation boundary of the regional power grid with full clean power supply according to claim 2, wherein the operation dimensional boundary calculation is performed on each year from the initial year to the boundary time, and the specific method for determining the operation condition which can be met by the full clean power supply in each year comprises the following steps:
respectively taking out each selected full-cleaning power supply mode and the initial boundary of the load from the acquired annual full-cleaning power supply modes;
respectively optimizing the control measures of the operation modes under the extracted initial boundaries;
under the optimal condition of control measures, respectively solving all full-clean power supply modes meeting risk limit values and the minimum value and the maximum value of the load to obtain the value range of the operation boundary of each full-clean power supply mode and the value range of the operation boundary of the load; and determining the intersection of the value ranges of all the operation boundaries and taking the intersection as the operation dimension boundary of the full-clean power supply in the year, wherein the operation dimension boundary is the operation condition which can be met by the full-clean power supply in each year.
4. The method for determining the operation boundary of the regional power grid with full clean power supply according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method for calculating the first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area in the nth year comprises the following steps:
α(n)＝CA(n)-CB(n)
in the formula: cA(n) represents the thermal power of the working conditionRisk assessment value of the power grid in a stop mode; cBAnd (n) represents the risk assessment value of the power grid in the initial mode of the working condition.
5. The method for determining the operation boundary of the regional power grid with full clean power supply according to claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: calculating second-order sensitivity beta of thermal power on influence risk changing with the year as a derivative of first-order sensitivity alpha (n) of the power grid risk evaluation value of the electric power on influence area with the time:
in the formula: and t represents the operation year of the thermal power starting mode.
6. A system for determining the operational boundary of full-clean power supply of a regional power grid is characterized by comprising: a first order sensitivity determination module, a second order sensitivity determination module, and a time boundary determination module,
the first-order sensitivity determining module is used for calculating the first-order sensitivity of the power grid risk assessment value of the thermal power starting influence area of each year from the initial year;
calculating the second-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk evaluation value changing along with the year based on the first-order sensitivity of the thermal power starting influence risk;
and the time boundary determining module is used for judging that the year is used as a boundary year for implementing the full-clean power supply if the second-order sensitivity value is smaller than the threshold value.
7. The system for determining the operational boundary of the regional power grid with full clean power supply according to claim 6, further comprising an operational dimension boundary determining module, wherein the operational dimension boundary determining module is configured to perform operational dimension boundary calculation on each year between an initial year and a boundary time, and determine an operational condition that can be satisfied by the operational condition that the operational condition is satisfied by the full clean power supply for each year.
8. The system for determining the operation boundary of the regional power grid with full clean power supply according to claim 7, wherein the operation dimension boundary determining module specifically executes the following method steps:
respectively taking out each selected full-cleaning power supply mode and the initial boundary of the load from the acquired annual full-cleaning power supply modes;
respectively optimizing the control measures of the operation modes under the extracted initial boundaries;
under the optimal condition of control measures, respectively solving all full-clean power supply modes meeting risk limit values and the minimum value and the maximum value of the load to obtain the value range of the operation boundary of each full-clean power supply mode and the value range of the operation boundary of the load; and determining the intersection of the value ranges of all the operation boundaries and taking the intersection as the operation dimension boundary of the full-clean power supply in the year, wherein the operation dimension boundary is the operation condition which can be met by the full-clean power supply in each year.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
10. A computer program product, characterized in that it comprises operations which, when loaded and executed on a computer system, cause said computer system to carry out a method according to any one of the preceding claims 1 to 5.
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