CN111211577A - Method for improving operation reliability of new energy in regional power grid subareas - Google Patents
Method for improving operation reliability of new energy in regional power grid subareas Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for improving the operation reliability of new energy in regional power grid partitions, which provides a method for carrying out sensitivity analysis on each index of the bearing capacity of the new energy by balancing electric power and electric quantity under the constraint of system safety in a partition mode, in a dispatching cycle, determining new energy grid-connected capacity, new energy resource quantity, system load, system rotation reserve capacity, section quota and thermal power unit utilization hours under a typical operation mode, determining reasonable change intervals of all factors, respectively carrying out sensitivity calculation analysis in the change intervals aiming at different key factors influencing new energy bearing capacity, finding out weak links in the operation of new energy of the regional power grid subareas according to the analysis result and adjusting the weak links, the method has important practical value for improving the reliability of new energy operation of regional power grid partitions and solving the practical difficulty faced by a scheduling decision maker.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power systems, in particular to a method for improving the operation reliability of new energy in regional power grid partitions.
Background
In a regional power grid with the increased proportion of new energy, the reasonable arrangement of the power grid operation mode must fully consider the bearing capacity of the power grid to the new energy, so as to ensure the safe operation of the power grid and the reliable consumption of the new energy. The core problem of the determination of the bearing capacity of the power grid is to determine the acceptance capacity of the power grid to new energy under the dual uncertainty factors of new energy output and system load based on the system rotation reserve capacity, the system section safe transmission capacity and the safe and reasonable utilization of conventional energy. Sensitivity analysis on key factors influencing the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid can further control the new energy bearing capacity and improve scheduling decision capability, and the sensitivity analysis has important significance on the new energy bearing capacity of the power grid, and at present, the sensitivity analysis mainly defines that: the power grid peak regulation capability and the power grid network frame adaptability; the key influence factors influencing the new energy bearing capacity of the power grid are considered: new energy output characteristic, load characteristic and outward sending channel.
Sensitivity analysis developed for the influence factors of the new energy bearing capacity of the power grid generally adopts a unilateral analysis mode for each factor: wei Lei et al published 'research on new energy receiving capability of Ningxia power system' in 'electric network technology' in 2010, and sensitively analyzes the influence on the peak regulation capacity of the system under the changes of load characteristics and outgoing channels; the research on the peak regulation capability and new energy accepting capability of the Shaanxi power grid is published in the electric power science and engineering of 2015 of Zhao Juan and the like, and the surplus of peak regulation is used as the accepting capability of new energy, so that the bearing capability under different load characteristics is sensitively analyzed; sensitivity analysis is carried out on the peak-valley difference characteristics of different loads and the new energy consumption capacity under the regulation and control of the conventional thermal power output under the peak regulation constraint and the power grid transmission constraint; in 'grid technology' of plum sea wave et al in 2015, evaluation on operation flexibility of a large-scale wind power grid-connected power system is published, and sensitivity analysis is carried out on new energy acceptance capacity and grid flexibility based on system standby capacity and conventional unit regulation capacity; penbo et al, in 2013, published 'Power grid technology' as a 'Power grid planning method initial exploration for New energy consumption', and made sensitivity analysis of New energy bearing capacity under different conveying section capacities.
In summary, the sensitivity analysis of the influence factors of the new energy bearing capacity is limited to the analysis of a single influence factor on the new energy bearing capacity of a single power grid, and cannot be comprehensively considered. The new energy bearing does not only mean that the new energy is completely accepted at all costs, but also comprehensive balance of all aspects of the bearing capacity of the system is sought, and the operation reliability of the new energy is improved.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a method for improving the operation reliability of new energy in a regional power grid partition, aiming at the above defects in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
1. a method for improving the operation reliability of new energy of regional power grid partitions sequentially comprises the following steps:
(1) according to the power grid aggregation model, simplifying the structure of the regional power grid to form a plurality of independent partitions;
(2)carrying out electric power electric quantity balance calculation on each subarea to obtain the bearing capacity N under the condition of electric power electric quantity balance of the subareas of the regional power gridb；
(3) Dividing scheduling period, starting from the first period of the scheduling period, and carrying out sensitivity analysis;
(4) in the current calculation period, the influence factors on the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid partition are as follows: the method comprises the following steps of carrying out sensitivity analysis on new energy grid-connected capacity, new energy resource quantity, power grid load, rotary reserve capacity, blocked section quota and utilization hours of a thermal power unit, and specifically comprises the following steps:
(4a) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, carrying out new energy grid-connected capacity sensitivity analysis, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta1Is to consider the sensitivity, N, of the new energy under the change of the grid-connected capacitybIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, CmaxIs the maximum possible grid-connected capacity, CbIs the new energy grid-connected capacity in the normal operation mode, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbThe section transmission capacity of each partition in a conventional operation mode;
(4b) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, carrying out sensitivity analysis on the new energy resource amount,
wherein, delta2Is to consider the sensitivity under the change of new energy resource quantity, NbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, R is the amount of new energy resources, SmaxIs the maximum spinning reserve capacity, S, of each partitionbIs the rotational reserve capacity of each partition in a conventional operating mode;
(4c) the method comprises the following steps And in the current calculation period, carrying out sensitivity analysis on regional power grid load,
wherein, delta3Is to consider the sensitivity under the change of regional power grid load, NbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, L is the regional power grid load, LbIs the load in the normal operating mode, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbThe section transmission capacity of each partition in a conventional operation mode;
(4d) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, sensitivity analysis of the rotating reserve capacity of the regional power grid is carried out,
wherein delta4Is to consider the sensitivity, N, of the regional power grid under the change of the reserve capacity for rotationbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbIs the section transmission capacity of each partition in the conventional operation mode, S is the different rotation reserve capacity of each partition, SbIs the rotational reserve capacity of each partition in a conventional operating mode;
(4e) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, carrying out sensitivity analysis on the blocked section quota of regional power grid transmission, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta5The bearing capacity under the limitation change of the blocked section of regional power grid transmission is considered, NbThe bearing capacity is under a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, delta T is the variable quantity of the section quota of each partition, and f (delta T) is the variable quantity of the bearing capacity of the new energy after the section quota of each partition is changed;
(4f) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, sensitivity analysis of the number of hours of utilization of the regional power grid thermal power generating units is carried out, the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid under the number of hours of utilization of each subarea thermal power generating unit is firstly calculated, and the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta6The bearing capacity N under the condition of considering the change of the utilization hours of the thermal power of the regional power gridbThe bearing capacity is under a conventional operation mode, n is the number of subareas, delta H is the variation of the utilization hours of each subarea thermal power generating unit, and f (delta H) is the variation of the bearing capacity of new energy after the utilization hours of each subarea thermal power are changed;
(4g) the method comprises the following steps And repeating the steps 4a to 4f to complete the sensitivity calculation of the influence factors of the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid subareas in each period of the scheduling cycle.
(5) And comparing absolute values of sensitivity calculation results of all the influencing factors in the scheduling period, wherein the larger the absolute value is, the larger the influence on the novel energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid is, the smaller the absolute value is, the smaller the influence on the novel energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid is, and the influencing factor with the maximum sensitivity absolute value is a weak link in the operation of regional power grid partition energy sources.
(6) And adjusting the value of one or more parameters in the calculation mode of the weak link with the maximum sensitivity absolute value, and reducing the sensitivity to [0,1 ].
Further, the step (2) comprises: according to the load demand prediction, the new energy output prediction, the new energy adjustable output, the conventional energy adjustable output, the partition section transmission power limit and the system rotation reserve capacity of the regional power grid, the bearing capacity N under the partition electric power and electric quantity balance of the regional power grid is obtainedbThe specific calculation steps are as follows:
(2a) under the limitation of the transmission power limit of the section of the partition in the conventional operation mode, taking the sequence of a new energy power station, a conventional energy power station and a power station serving as the rotating reserve capacity of the system as the calculation sequence of the power and electric quantity balance calculation;
(2b) calculating to obtain the acceptance of the regional power grid by using a successive load shedding method as a power and electric quantity balance calculation method according to a daily load graph or an excess load graph when the power station is in turn to participate in balance calculationNew energy output Nb。
Further, the step (3) comprises: the calculation period is set as a time unit of season, month, ten days, week, or day.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method, the regional power grid structure is simplified and processed according to a power grid aggregation model, and a plurality of independent partitions are formed. In a dispatching cycle, determining new energy grid-connected capacity, new energy resource quantity, system load, system rotation reserve capacity, section quota and thermal power unit utilization hours in a typical operation mode, determining reasonable change intervals of all factors according to dispatching operation experience, respectively performing sensitivity calculation analysis in the change intervals aiming at different key factors influencing new energy bearing capacity, finding out weak links in regional power grid partition new energy operation according to analysis results, analyzing the weak links of the system and adjusting the weak links, and has important practical value for improving the reliability of regional power grid partition new energy operation and solving the practical difficulty faced by a dispatching decision maker.
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FIG. 1 is a calculation flow chart of a sensitivity analysis method for influence factors of new energy bearing capacity of a regional power grid partition.
Detailed Description
The technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that the described embodiments are merely exemplary of the invention, and not restrictive of the full scope of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
1. The sensitivity analysis method for the influence factors of the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid partitions sequentially comprises the following steps:
(1) according to the power grid aggregation model, simplifying the structure of the regional power grid to form a plurality of independent partitions;
(2) carrying out electric power and electric quantity balance calculation on each partition to obtain a partitionBearing capacity N under balance of electric power and electric quantity of domain power grid subareasbThe calculation steps are as follows:
(2a) under the limitation of the transmission power limit of the section of the partition in the conventional operation mode, taking the sequence of a new energy power station, a conventional energy power station and a power station serving as the rotating reserve capacity of the system as the calculation sequence of the power and electric quantity balance calculation;
(2b) calculating to obtain the new energy output N acceptable by the regional power grid by taking a successive load shedding method as a power and electric quantity balance calculation method according to a daily load graph or an excess load graph when the power station is in turn to participate in balance calculationb；
(3) Dividing scheduling period time intervals, setting the calculation time intervals as time units of seasons, months, ten days, weeks or days, and carrying out sensitivity analysis from the first time interval to the end time interval of the scheduling period;
(4) in the current calculation period, the influence factors on the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid partition are as follows: the method comprises the following steps of carrying out sensitivity analysis on new energy grid-connected capacity, new energy resource quantity, power grid load, rotary reserve capacity, blocked section quota and utilization hours of a thermal power unit, and specifically comprises the following steps:
(4a) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, carrying out new energy grid-connected capacity sensitivity analysis, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta1Is to consider the sensitivity, N, of the new energy under the change of the grid-connected capacitybIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, CmaxIs the maximum possible grid-connected capacity, CbIs the new energy grid-connected capacity in the normal operation mode, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbThe section transmission capacity of each partition in a conventional operation mode;
(4b) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the new energy resource amount, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
under the condition of abundant resource quantity:
in the case of average resource amount:
when the resource amount is slightly low:
wherein, delta2Is to consider the sensitivity under the change of new energy resource quantity, NbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, RmaxIs a rich resource quantity, RnormalIs the average amount of resources, RlowIs a partial resource amount, RbIs the amount of resources in the normal operating mode, SmaxIs the maximum spinning reserve capacity, S, of each partitionbThe method is characterized in that the rotation reserve capacity of each partition is in a conventional operation mode, and the change of the new energy bearing capacity of a regional power grid is analyzed through the change from the new energy resource amount in the conventional operation mode to the over-abundant and over-average resource amount and the over-withered resource amount, so that the sensitivity analysis of the new energy resource amount to the bearing capacity is realized.
(4c) The method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, the change of the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid under the high, medium and low load levels is calculated, and the calculation mode is as follows:
at high load levels:
at moderate load levels:
at low load level:
wherein, delta3Is to consider the sensitivity under the change of regional power grid load, NbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, LmaxIs a high load level, LnormalIs a medium load level, LlowIs at a low load level, LbIs the load level in the normal operating mode, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbIs the section transmission capacity of each partition in the conventional operation mode,
(4d) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the rotating reserve capacity of the regional power grid, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta4Is to consider the sensitivity, N, of the regional power grid under the change of the reserve capacity for rotationbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbIs the section transmission capacity of each partition in the conventional operation mode, S is the different rotation reserve capacity of each partition, SbIs the spinning reserve capacity of each partition in the normal operating mode.
(4e) The method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the blocked section quota of regional power grid transmission, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta5Considering the sensitivity under the limitation of the blocked section of regional power grid transmission, NbThe method is characterized in that the bearing capacity is under a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, delta T is the variable quantity of the section quota of each partition, f (delta T) is the variable quantity of the new energy bearing capacity after the section quota of each partition is changed, and the change of the new energy bearing capacity of a regional power grid is analyzed from the transmission blocked section quota under the conventional operation mode to the limit quantity after the transmission blocked section is changed possibly, so that the sensitivity analysis of the transmission blocked section quota on the bearing capacity is realized.
(4f) The method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the utilization hours of the regional power grid thermal power generating unit, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta6The sensitivity under the condition of considering the change of the utilization hours of the regional power grid thermal power, NbThe bearing capacity is under a conventional operation mode, n is the number of subareas, delta H is the variation of the utilization hours of each subarea thermal power generating unit, and f (delta H) is the variation of the bearing capacity of new energy after the utilization hours of each subarea thermal power generating unit are changed.
(4g) The method comprises the following steps And repeating the steps 4a to 4f to complete the sensitivity calculation of the influence factors of the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid subareas in each period of the scheduling cycle.
(5) And comparing absolute values of sensitivity calculation results of all the influencing factors in the scheduling period, wherein the larger the absolute value is, the larger the influence on the novel energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid is, the smaller the absolute value is, the smaller the influence on the novel energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid is, and the influencing factor with the maximum sensitivity absolute value is a weak link in the operation of regional power grid partition energy sources.
(6) Adjusting the value of one or more parameters in the calculation mode of the weak link with the maximum sensitivity absolute value, reducing the sensitivity to [0,1], if the maximum sensitivity absolute value does not exceed 1, then no adjustment is needed, if the maximum sensitivity absolute value is greater than 1, then adjustment is needed, and the adjustment method is as follows:
if the maximum sensitivity under the new energy grid-connected capacity change is considered, optimizing and improving the control limit of the power transmission section;
if the sensitivity is maximum under the consideration of the change of the new energy resource quantity, optimizing and improving the control limit of the power transmission section;
if the sensitivity under the condition of considering the regional power grid load change is maximum, the load prediction precision is improved, and the power generation capacity of the new energy and the conventional energy unit is coordinated and optimized;
if the sensitivity of the regional power grid under the rotation reserve capacity change is considered to be maximum, the prediction accuracy of the new energy is improved, and the power generation capacity of the new energy and the power generation capacity of the conventional energy unit are coordinated and optimized;
if the sensitivity is maximum under consideration of the change of the blocked section limit of regional power grid transmission, a grid structure of the power grid is strengthened, and the control limit of the transmission section is improved;
and if the maximum sensitivity is considered under the condition that the number of hours of thermal power utilization of the regional power grid is changed, regulating and controlling the power generation capacity of the conventional energy generating unit.
Finally, the above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting, and other modifications or equivalent substitutions made by the technical solutions of the present invention by those of ordinary skill in the art should be covered within the scope of the claims of the present invention as long as they do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A method for improving the operation reliability of new energy of regional power grid partitions is characterized by comprising the following steps: the following steps are adopted in sequence:
(1) according to the power grid aggregation model, simplifying the structure of the regional power grid to form a plurality of independent partitions;
(2) carrying out electric power electric quantity balance calculation on each subarea to obtain the bearing capacity N under the condition of electric power electric quantity balance of the subareas of the regional power gridb；
(3) Dividing scheduling period, starting from the first period of the scheduling period, and carrying out sensitivity analysis and calculation;
(4) in the current calculation period, the influence factors on the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid partition are as follows: the method comprises the following steps of carrying out sensitivity analysis calculation on new energy grid-connected capacity, new energy resource quantity, power grid load, rotary reserve capacity, blocked section quota and utilization hours of a thermal power unit, and specifically comprises the following steps:
(4a) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, the sensitivity of the new energy grid-connected capacity is calculated in the following calculation mode:
wherein delta1Is to consider the sensitivity, N, of the new energy under the change of the grid-connected capacitybIs the bearing capacity in the conventional operation mode, and n is the number of partitions，CmaxIs the maximum possible grid-connected capacity, CbIs the new energy grid-connected capacity in the normal operation mode, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbThe section transmission capacity of each partition in a conventional operation mode;
(4b) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the new energy resource amount, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein, delta2Is to consider the sensitivity under the change of new energy resource quantity, NbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, R is the amount of new energy resources, SmaxIs the maximum spinning reserve capacity, S, of each partitionbIs the rotational reserve capacity of each partition in a conventional operating mode;
(4c) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, sensitivity calculation of regional power grid load is carried out, and the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein, delta3Is to consider the sensitivity under the change of regional power grid load, NbIs the bearing capacity in a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, L is the regional power grid load, LbIs the load in the normal operating mode, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbThe section transmission capacity of each partition in a conventional operation mode;
(4d) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the rotating reserve capacity of the regional power grid, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta4Is to consider the sensitivity, N, of the regional power grid under the change of the reserve capacity for rotationbIs the bearing capacity in the normal operation modeN is the number of partitions, TmaxIs the maximum transmission capacity, T, of each partition sectionbIs the section transmission capacity of each partition in the conventional operation mode, S is the different rotation reserve capacity of each partition, SbIs the rotational reserve capacity of each partition in a conventional operating mode;
(4e) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the blocked section quota of regional power grid transmission, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta5The bearing capacity under the limitation change of the blocked section of regional power grid transmission is considered, NbThe bearing capacity is under a conventional operation mode, n is the number of partitions, delta T is the variable quantity of the section quota of each partition, and f (delta T) is the variable quantity of the bearing capacity of the new energy after the section quota of each partition is changed;
(4f) the method comprises the following steps In the current calculation period, calculating the sensitivity of the utilization hours of the regional power grid thermal power generating unit, wherein the calculation mode is as follows:
wherein delta6The bearing capacity N under the condition of considering the change of the utilization hours of the thermal power of the regional power gridbThe bearing capacity is under a conventional operation mode, n is the number of subareas, delta H is the variation of the utilization hours of each subarea thermal power generating unit, and f (delta H) is the variation of the bearing capacity of new energy after the utilization hours of each subarea thermal power are changed;
(4g) the method comprises the following steps And repeating the steps 4a to 4f to complete the sensitivity calculation of the influence factors of the new energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid subareas in each time period in the dispatching cycle.
(5) And comparing absolute values of sensitivity calculation results of all the influencing factors in the scheduling period, wherein the larger the absolute value is, the larger the influence on the novel energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid is, the smaller the absolute value is, the smaller the influence on the novel energy bearing capacity of the regional power grid is, and the influencing factor with the maximum sensitivity absolute value is a weak link in the operation of regional power grid partition energy sources.
(6) And adjusting the value of one or more parameters in the calculation mode of the weak link with the maximum sensitivity absolute value, and reducing the sensitivity to [0,1 ].
2. The method for improving the operational reliability of the regional power grid partition new energy according to claim 1, wherein the step (2) comprises: according to the load demand prediction, the new energy output prediction, the new energy adjustable output, the conventional energy adjustable output, the partition section transmission power limit and the system rotation reserve capacity of the regional power grid, the bearing capacity N under the partition electric power and electric quantity balance of the regional power grid is obtainedbThe specific calculation steps are as follows:
(2a) under the limitation of the transmission power limit of the section of the partition in the conventional operation mode, taking the sequence of a new energy power station, a conventional energy power station and a power station serving as the rotating reserve capacity of the system as the calculation sequence of the power and electric quantity balance calculation;
(2b) calculating to obtain the new energy output N acceptable by the regional power grid by taking a successive load shedding method as a power and electric quantity balance calculation method according to a daily load graph or an excess load graph when the power station is in turn to participate in balance calculationb。
3. The method for improving the operational reliability of the regional power grid partition new energy according to claim 1, wherein the step (3) comprises: the calculation period is set as a time unit of season, month, ten days, week, or day.
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