CN113822470B - Output data generation method and system considering uncertainty of new energy station output - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for generating output data considering the uncertainty of the output of a new energy station, which comprises the steps of analyzing historical data, determining an output error interval, a time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and a new energy station time point output error sum interval, generating future actual output in the output error interval, screening the future actual output through the time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and the new energy station time point output error sum interval, and obtaining the output required by the output modeling of the new energy station, thereby providing a basis for the output modeling of the new energy station.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method and a system for generating output data considering the uncertainty of the output of a new energy station, and belongs to the technical field of automatic control of electric power systems.
Background
In recent years, the construction structure and the operation form of the power system are greatly changed while the strategy of supporting energy transformation is implemented, and along with the continuous improvement of the new energy duty ratio, the uncertainty factor brought by the new energy is gradually transformed from the variable to the variable, so that the safe and stable operation of a large power grid is seriously influenced.
In the aspect of uncertainty of new energy output, the daily maximum power fluctuation of new energy in the 2019 national network range is more than 1 hundred million kilowatts, the daily fluctuation of important transmission sections of northwest power network parts is tens of kilowatts, the power change rate on a minute time scale can reach about 1% of an installed machine, the influence on a transient time scale, particularly after the power network faults is overlapped, is difficult to ignore, and the severe uncertainty makes the traditional operation control strategy mainly formulated in a typical determined operation mode difficult to cover all high-risk scenes.
In order to study the influence of the uncertainty of the new energy on the power grid, the output of the new energy field group needs to be modeled, and modeling data, namely output data, of the uncertainty of the new energy output is needed to be considered on the premise of modeling, so that a new energy output data generation method is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method and a system for generating output data considering the uncertainty of the output of a new energy station, which solve the problems disclosed in the background art.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the method for generating the output data considering the uncertainty of the output of the new energy station comprises the following steps:
calculating standard deviation of a new energy station output error set, standard deviation of a time point output error set and standard deviation of a new energy station time point output error according to the historical predicted output and the historical actual output of the new energy station; the new energy field station output error set comprises output errors of new energy field stations at different time points, the time point output error set comprises output errors of all new energy field stations at certain time points, and the new energy field time point output errors comprise all output errors;
carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error;
determining an output error interval, a time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and a new energy field time point output error sum interval according to a normal distribution test result and a preset confidence interval;
generating a future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output;
and screening the actual output in the future by adopting a section of the output error sum in the time point output error set and a section of the output error sum in the new energy field time point output error to obtain output data considering the output uncertainty of the new energy field station.
The standard deviation formula of the new energy station output error set is as follows:
wherein delta i The standard deviation of the output error set of the ith new energy station,for the mathematical expectation of the output error set of the ith new energy station, M is the total number of time points, E ij And the output error of the ith new energy station at the jth time point.
The standard deviation formula of the time point output error set is as follows:
wherein delta t j The standard deviation of the force error set for the jth time point,for the mathematical expectation of the j-th time point output error set, N is the total number of new energy stations and E ij And the output error of the ith new energy station at the jth time point.
The standard deviation formula of the new energy field time point output error is as follows:
wherein delta s Is the standard deviation of the output error of the new energy field time point,for the mathematical expectation of the power error of the time points of the new energy field, M is the total number of the time points, N is the total number of the new energy field stations, E ij And the output error of the ith new energy station at the jth time point.
The interval of the output error is as follows:
|E ij |≤K BDi δ i
wherein E is ij The output error delta of the ith new energy station at the jth time point i The standard deviation of the output error set of the ith new energy station is set;
if the output error set of the ith new energy station does not meet the normal distribution, parameters
If the output error set of the ith new energy station meets the normal distribution, parameters
Wherein In is a confidence interval, phi -1 Cumulative probability for standard normal distributionAn inverse of the rate density function.
The interval of the output error sum of the time point output error set is as follows:
wherein E is ij The output error delta of the ith new energy station at the jth time point t j Is the standard deviation of the j-th time point output error set, N is the total number of new energy stations,pr is a probability function;
if the j-th time point output error set does not meet the normal distribution, parameters
If the j-th time point output error set meets normal distribution, parameters
Wherein,for the mathematical expectation of the j-th time point output error set, in is the confidence interval, Φ -1 The inverse of the probability density function is accumulated for a standard normal distribution.
The output error sum interval in the new energy field time point output error is as follows:
wherein delta s Is the standard deviation of the power output error of the time points of the new energy field, M is the total number of the time points, N is the total number of the new energy field stations, E ij The output error of the ith new energy station at the jth time point,pr is a probability function;
if the output error of the new energy field time point does not meet the normal distribution, parameters
If the output error of the new energy field time point meets the normal distribution, parameters
Wherein,for the mathematical expectation of the power error of the time point of the new energy field, in is a confidence interval, phi -1 The inverse of the probability density function is accumulated for a standard normal distribution.
Generating future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output, wherein the specific process is as follows:
determining a section of the actual output in the future according to the section of the output error and the predicted output in the future;
and randomly generating a plurality of future actual output in the future actual output interval.
The method comprises the steps of screening actual output in the future by adopting a section of the output error sum of a time point output error set and a section of the output error sum of a new energy field time point output error set, and obtaining the output required by the output modeling of a new energy field station, wherein the specific process is as follows:
calculating an output error between the actual output in the future and the corresponding predicted output in the future;
if the output error meets the interval of the output error sum in the output error set of the time point and the interval of the output error sum in the output error of the new energy field time point, the future actual output corresponding to the output error is output data considering the output uncertainty of the new energy field station.
An output data generation system for accounting for uncertainty of output of a new energy station, comprising:
standard deviation calculation module: calculating standard deviation of a new energy station output error set, standard deviation of a time point output error set and standard deviation of a new energy station time point output error according to the historical predicted output and the historical actual output of the new energy station; the new energy station output error set comprises output errors of new energy stations at different time points, the time point output error set comprises output errors of all new energy stations at certain time points, and the output error set comprises all output errors;
and (3) a checking module: carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error;
the interval determining module: determining an output error interval, a time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and a new energy field time point output error sum interval according to a normal distribution test result and a preset confidence interval;
the actual output generation module: generating a future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output;
and a screening module: and screening the actual output in the future by adopting a section of the output error sum in the time point output error set and a section of the output error sum in the new energy field time point output error to obtain output data considering the output uncertainty of the new energy field station.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the invention, through analyzing historical data, the interval of the output error sum of the time point output error set and the interval of the output error sum of the new energy field time point output error are determined, the future actual output is generated in the interval of the output error, and the future actual output is screened through the interval of the output error sum of the time point output error set and the interval of the output error sum of the new energy field time point output error, so that output data which takes the output uncertainty of the new energy field station into account is obtained, and a foundation is provided for the output modeling of the new energy field station.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for more clearly illustrating the technical aspects of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for generating the output data considering the uncertainty of the output of the new energy station comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating standard deviation of a new energy station output error set, standard deviation of a time point output error set and standard deviation of a new energy station time point output error according to historical predicted output and historical actual output of the new energy station; the new energy field station output error set comprises output errors of new energy field stations at different time points, the time point output error set comprises output errors of all new energy field stations at certain time points, and the new energy field time point output errors comprise all output errors;
step 2, carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error;
step 3, determining a section of the output error, a section of the output error sum of the time point output error set and a section of the output error sum of the new energy field time point output error according to the normal distribution test result and a preset confidence interval;
step 4, generating future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output;
and step 5, screening the actual output in the future by adopting a section of the output error sum in the time point output error set and a section of the output error sum in the new energy field time point output error to obtain output data considering the output uncertainty of the new energy field station.
According to the method, through analyzing historical data, the interval of the output errors, the interval of the sum of the output errors of the time point output error set and the interval of the sum of the output errors of the new energy field time point output errors are determined, the future actual output is generated in the interval of the output errors, and the future actual output is screened through the interval of the sum of the output errors of the time point output errors and the interval of the sum of the output errors of the new energy field time point output errors, so that output data which takes the uncertainty of the new energy field output into account is obtained, and a foundation is provided for the modeling of the new energy field output.
Step 1 is to analyze the history data, define the total number of new energy stations as N, and the new energy stations as S respectively 1 、S 2 、...、S N Acquiring new energy station S i (i=1, 2..n.) predicted and actual forces at M time points for any past 24 hours, then at the j-th time point the new energy station S i The output error of (2) is:
E ij ＝A ij -F ij
wherein E is ij The ith new energy station S at the jth time point i Output error of A ij The ith new energy station S at the jth time point i Is the actual output of F ij The ith new energy station S at the jth time point i Is a predicted force of (a).
Thus, N sets of output errors can be obtained, each set comprising M output errors, as follows:
defining the output error set of the new energy station to include the output errors of the new energy station at different time points, namely { E } i1 E i2 … E iM And (3) calculating the standard deviation of the output error set of the new energy station, wherein the standard deviation is as follows:
wherein delta i The standard deviation of the output error set of the ith new energy station,the mathematical expectation of the output error set of the ith new energy station is provided.
Defining the set of time point output errors includes determining the output errors of each new energy station at the time point, namely { E } 1j E 2j … E Nj Calculating the standard deviation of the set of the moment force errors, specifically as follows:
wherein delta t j The standard deviation of the force error set for the jth time point,a mathematical expectation of the force error set for the jth time point.
Defining the output errors of the new energy field time points to include all the output errors, namelyCalculating the standard deviation of the power output error of the new energy field time point, wherein the standard deviation is as follows:
wherein delta s Is the standard deviation of the output error of the new energy field time point,the method is a mathematical expectation of the power error of the new energy field time point.
And (3) carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error by adopting a Kolmogorov-Smirnov inspection method (K-S inspection for short).
Defining a confidence interval of the power output of the new energy field station as In, wherein In is generally 95% -98%, and determining an interval of the power output error, an interval of the power output error sum of the time point power output error set and an interval of the power output error sum of the time point power output error of the new energy field, specifically comprising the following steps:
the interval of the output error is as follows:
|E ij |≤K BDi δ i
if the output error set of the ith new energy station does not meet the normal distribution, parameters
If the output error set of the ith new energy station meets the normal distribution, parameters
Wherein phi is -1 The inverse of the probability density function is accumulated for a standard normal distribution.
The interval of the output error sum of the time point output error set is as follows:
pr is a probability function;
if the j-th time point output error set does not meet the normal distribution, parameters
If the j-th time point output error set meets normal distribution, parameters
The output error sum interval in the new energy field time point output error is as follows:
pr is a probability function;
if the output error of the new energy field time point does not meet the normal distribution, parameters
If the output error of the new energy field time point meets the normal distribution, parameters
The uncertainty of the output refers to uncertainty of the output in the future, the output in the future is difficult to accurately obtain through prediction, and the uncertainty still exists on the basis of the prediction of the output. Based on the determined output error interval and the future predicted output, the actual output interval P can be determined ij -K BDi δ i ,P ij +K BDi δ i ]Wherein P is ij For the predicted capacity of the ith new energy station at the jth time point in the future, the value can be obtained by a prediction system of the new energy station.
From [ P ] ij -K BDi δ i ,P ij +K BDi δ i ]Randomly generating a plurality of future actual outputs, calculating an output error between the future actual outputs and corresponding future predicted outputs, if the output error meets the interval of adopting the output error sum of the time point output error set and the interval of the output error sum in the new energy field time point output error, taking the future actual output corresponding to the output error as output data for accounting for the output uncertainty of the new energy field station, otherwise, discarding; and if the required output does not exist at last, regenerating the actual output in the future, and screening again.
The screening process is as follows:
1) The conservation of output is reduced according to the spatial distribution of the new energy stations;
future actual output S fij And corresponding future predicted output P ij The output error between them is S fij -P ij ；
If it isThe output force meets the spatial distribution rule, otherwise, the output force does not meet the spatial distribution rule and is removed;
2) The output conservation is reduced according to the output error distribution of the new energy station:
if it isThe output meets the error distribution rule, otherwise, the output does not meet the error distribution rule and is omitted.
The software system corresponding to the method, namely the output data generation system for accounting for the uncertainty of the output of the new energy station, comprises the following components:
standard deviation calculation module: calculating standard deviation of a new energy station output error set, standard deviation of a time point output error set and standard deviation of a new energy station time point output error according to the historical predicted output and the historical actual output of the new energy station; the new energy field station output error set comprises output errors of new energy field stations at different time points, the time point output error set comprises output errors of all new energy field stations at certain time points, and the new energy field time point output errors comprise all output errors;
and (3) a checking module: carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error;
the interval determining module: determining an output error interval, a time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and a new energy field time point output error sum interval according to a normal distribution test result and a preset confidence interval;
the actual output generation module: generating a future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output;
and a screening module: and screening the actual output in the future by adopting a section of the output error sum in the time point output error set and a section of the output error sum in the new energy field time point output error to obtain output data considering the output uncertainty of the new energy field station.
A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform an output data generation method that accounts for new energy site output uncertainty.
A computing device comprising one or more processors, one or more memories, and one or more programs, wherein one or more programs are stored in the one or more memories and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs comprising instructions for performing an output data generation method that accounts for new energy site output uncertainty.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The foregoing is illustrative of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting thereof, but rather as providing for the use of additional embodiments and advantages of all such modifications, equivalents, improvements and similar to the present invention are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (6)
1. The method for generating the output data considering the uncertainty of the output of the new energy station is characterized by comprising the following steps:
calculating standard deviation of a new energy station output error set, standard deviation of a time point output error set and standard deviation of the new energy station time point output error set according to the historical predicted output and the historical actual output of the new energy station; the new energy field station output error set comprises output errors of new energy field stations at different time points, the time point output error set comprises output errors of each new energy field station at a determined time point, and the new energy field time point output error set comprises the new energy field station output error set and all output errors in the time point output error set;
carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error;
determining an output error interval, a time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and a new energy field time point output error sum interval according to a normal distribution test result and a preset confidence interval;
the interval of the output error is as follows: i E ij |≤K BDi δ i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the If the output error set of the ith new energy station does not meet the normal distribution, parametersIf the output error set of the ith new energy station meets the normal distribution, parametersWherein E is ij The output error delta of the ith new energy station at the jth time point i Is the standard deviation of the output error set of the ith new energy station, in is the confidence interval, phi -1 Accumulating an inverse function of the probability density function for a standard normal distribution;
the interval of the output error sum of the time point output error set is as follows:if the j-th time point output error set does not meet the normal distribution, the parameter +.>If the j-th time point output error set meets the normal distribution, the parameter +.>Wherein delta t j The standard deviation of the output error set of the jth time point is N, the total number of new energy stations is +.>Pr is a function of the probability,mathematical expectations for the j-th time point set of force errors;
the output error sum interval in the new energy field time point output error is as follows:if the output error of the new energy field time point does not meet the normal distribution, the parameter +.>If the output error of the new energy field time point meets the normal distribution, the parameter +.>Wherein delta s Is the standard deviation of the power output error of the time points of the new energy field, M is the total number of the time points, and +.> Mathematical expectation of the power error of the new energy field time point;
generating a future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output;
calculating the output error between the actual output in the future and the corresponding predicted output in the future, and if the output error meets the interval of the output error sum in the output error set of the time point and the interval of the output error sum in the output error of the time point of the new energy source, taking the actual output in the future corresponding to the output error as output data for accounting the output uncertainty of the new energy source station.
2. The method for generating output data accounting for uncertainty of output of a new energy station according to claim 1, wherein a standard deviation formula of an output error set of the new energy station is:
wherein,mathematics of output error set for ith new energy stationIt is desirable.
3. The method for generating output data accounting for uncertainty of output of a new energy station according to claim 1, wherein a standard deviation formula of a set of output errors at a time point is:
4. the method for generating output data accounting for uncertainty of output of a new energy station as claimed in claim 1, wherein a standard deviation formula of the output error at the time point of the new energy station is:
5. the method for generating output data according to claim 1, wherein the generating future actual output comprises the following steps of:
determining a section of the actual output in the future according to the section of the output error and the predicted output in the future;
and randomly generating a plurality of future actual output in the future actual output interval.
6. The output data generation system considering the uncertainty of the output of the new energy station is characterized by comprising the following components:
standard deviation calculation module: calculating standard deviation of a new energy station output error set, standard deviation of a time point output error set and standard deviation of a new energy station time point output error according to the historical predicted output and the historical actual output of the new energy station; the new energy station output error set comprises output errors of new energy stations at different time points, the time point output error set comprises output errors of each new energy station at a determined time point, and the new energy station time point output errors comprise all output errors in the new energy station output error set and the time point output error set;
and (3) a checking module: carrying out normal distribution inspection on the new energy station output error set, the time point output error set and the new energy station time point output error;
the interval determining module: determining an output error interval, a time point output error concentrated output error sum interval and a new energy field time point output error sum interval according to a normal distribution test result and a preset confidence interval;
the interval of the output error is as follows: i E ij |≤K BDi δ i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the If the output error set of the ith new energy station does not meet the normal distribution, parametersIf the output error set of the ith new energy station meets the normal distribution, parametersWherein E is ij The output error delta of the ith new energy station at the jth time point i Is the standard deviation of the output error set of the ith new energy station, in is the confidence interval, phi -1 Accumulating an inverse function of the probability density function for a standard normal distribution;
the interval of the output error sum of the time point output error set is as follows:if the j-th time point output error set does not meet the normal distribution, the parameter +.>If the j-th time point output error set meets the normal distribution, the parameter +.>Wherein delta t j Is the standard deviation of the j-th time point output error set, N is the new energy fieldTotal number of stations->Pr is a function of the probability,mathematical expectations for the j-th time point set of force errors;
the output error sum interval in the new energy field time point output error is as follows:if the output error of the new energy field time point does not meet the normal distribution, the parameter +.>If the output error of the new energy field time point meets the normal distribution, the parameter +.>Wherein delta s Is the standard deviation of the power output error of the time points of the new energy field, M is the total number of the time points, and +.> Mathematical expectation of the power error of the new energy field time point;
the actual output generation module: generating a future actual output according to the output error interval and the future predicted output;
and a screening module: calculating the output error between the actual output in the future and the corresponding predicted output in the future, and if the output error meets the interval of the output error sum in the output error set of the time point and the interval of the output error sum in the output error of the time point of the new energy source, taking the actual output in the future corresponding to the output error as output data for accounting the output uncertainty of the new energy source station.
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