CN115438908A - Carbon emission prediction method, system, storage medium and electronic equipment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a carbon emission prediction method, a system, a storage medium and an electronic device, comprising: acquiring initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period; correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year; and correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained. According to the method, the carbon reduction scheme is correspondingly formulated, the energy consumption and the change of carbon emission are analyzed, and then the prediction of carbon reduction discharge capacity is realized, so that a planning algorithm which takes different carbon reduction schemes as input and uses the carbon emission prediction as output is provided, and support is provided for relevant carbon emission planning personnel to formulate the carbon reduction strategy.
Description
Technical Field
The present invention relates to the field of carbon dioxide emission technologies, and in particular, to a method, a system, a storage medium, and an electronic device for predicting carbon emission.
Background
A typical industrial park can be designed for targeted emission reduction according to the type of industry, but for urban parks (such as residential districts, business districts, office districts, and mixed parks of the foregoing categories), the energy consumption types are complex, and thus the carbon dioxide emission is difficult to monitor.
In the prior art, plan planning is performed from the aspect of city-level macroscopic regulation, for example, a comprehensive index module is designed in CN201910353907.9 an energy saving and emission reduction and macroscopic information management system, and is used for displaying unit GDP energy consumption reduction rate, total energy consumption, total city production value, total unit city production value energy consumption and emission reduction index of a city; CN201610252723.X A visual multidimensional display technology framework for panoramic information of an urban intelligent power grid is characterized in that on the basis of construction of a unified information support platform, the comprehensive carbon reduction quantity of a power generation side, a dispatching command side, a power distribution side, a power utilization side and marketing aspects integrated to the unified information support platform is extracted, the real-time atmospheric carbon reduction quantity of a regional greenhouse gas monitoring weather station is integrally displayed, and the low-carbon benefits of all submodules are evaluated on line. There are also technologies starting from the field of subdivision, for example, CN201920882793.2, a green building structure capable of reducing carbon emission, discloses a green building structure capable of reducing carbon emission; CN201810321714.0 a campus energy Internet energy device capacity optimization configuration method for configuring equipment in a comprehensive energy campus containing photovoltaic output and electricity/heat/natural gas loads; CN202110943729.2 establishment of a multi-energy park and a low-carbon scheduling method are characterized in that heat storage equipment, gas storage equipment, carbon capture equipment and carbon storage equipment are mainly introduced into the multi-energy park, and a scheduling method is proposed.
As can be seen from the above prior art, there is no tool suitable for the personnel at the yard planning level to reasonably judge how the carbon reduction scheme should be implemented step by step in the coming years.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a carbon emission prediction method, a carbon emission prediction system, a storage medium and an electronic device.
The technical scheme of the carbon emission prediction method is as follows:
acquiring initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period;
correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
correcting the initial carbon emission of a preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained; wherein the preset year is any year outside the initial year in the planning time period.
The carbon emission prediction method has the following beneficial effects:
the method of the invention realizes the prediction of carbon emission reduction capacity by correspondingly formulating the carbon reduction scheme and analyzing the energy consumption and the change of carbon emission, thereby providing a planning algorithm taking different carbon reduction schemes as input and carbon emission prediction as output, and providing support for relevant carbon emission planners to formulate the carbon reduction strategy.
On the basis of the scheme, the carbon emission prediction method can be further improved as follows.
Further, the obtaining of the initial carbon emissions of the target area per year in the planned time period includes:
calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of the target area in the initial year in the planning time period according to the current energy consumption data and the current energy consumption loss data of the target area;
calculating the initial carbon emission of each year in the planning time period based on the average growth rate of the historical energy consumption data of the target area and the initial carbon emission of the initial year.
Further, the carbon reduction scheme comprises: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or saving energy and propagating.
Further, each carbon reduction scheme corresponds to one energy consumption correction and one energy consumption correction;
the correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year comprises:
correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the energy consumption correction and the energy consumption correction corresponding to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
the step of correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year comprises the following steps:
and correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to the energy consumption correction and the energy consumption correction corresponding to the carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and the energy consumption correction corresponding to the carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year.
Further, the method also comprises the following steps: and obtaining a carbon emission prediction curve graph of the target area in the planning time period according to the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period.
The technical scheme of the carbon emission prediction system is as follows:
the method comprises the following steps: the system comprises a data acquisition module, a first processing module and a second processing module;
the data acquisition module is used for: acquiring initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period;
the first processing module is configured to: correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
the second processing module is configured to: correcting the initial carbon emission of a preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained; wherein the preset year is any year outside the initial year in the planning time period.
The carbon emission prediction system has the following beneficial effects:
the system of the invention realizes the prediction of carbon emission reduction capacity by correspondingly formulating the carbon reduction scheme and analyzing the energy consumption and the change of carbon emission, thereby providing a planning algorithm taking different carbon reduction schemes as input and carbon emission prediction as output, and providing support for relevant carbon emission planners to formulate the carbon reduction strategy.
On the basis of the scheme, the carbon emission prediction system can be further improved as follows.
Further, the data acquisition module is specifically configured to:
calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of the target area in the initial year in the planning time period according to the current energy consumption data and the current energy consumption loss data of the target area;
and calculating the initial carbon emission of each year in the planning time period based on the average growth rate of the historical energy consumption data of the target area and the initial carbon emission of the initial year.
Further, the carbon reduction scheme comprises: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or saving energy and propagating.
The technical scheme of the storage medium of the invention is as follows:
the storage medium has stored therein instructions which, when read by a computer, cause the computer to perform the steps of a carbon emission prediction method according to the present invention.
The technical scheme of the electronic equipment is as follows:
comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, causes the computer to perform the steps of a method for carbon emission prediction according to the present invention.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a carbon emission prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a carbon reduction scheme in a carbon emission prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a first schematic diagram of a carbon reduction scheme design process in a carbon emissions prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a second schematic diagram of a carbon reduction scheme design process in a carbon emissions prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a graph comparing carbon emissions for three different carbon reduction schemes in a method for carbon emissions prediction in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a graph comparing power usage for three different carbon reduction schemes in a method for predicting carbon emissions in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a graph comparing gas usage for three different carbon reduction schemes in a method for predicting carbon emissions in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a graph comparing cooling and heating carbon emissions for three different carbon reduction schemes in a carbon emissions prediction method in accordance with embodiments of the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a graph comparing power consumption for a second carbon reduction scheme in a carbon emissions prediction method in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a graph comparing power consumption for a third carbon reduction scheme in a carbon emissions prediction method in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 11 is a schematic structural diagram of a carbon emission prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
As shown in fig. 1, a carbon emission prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
s1, obtaining the initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period.
Wherein the target area is a certain city park. The planning time period is set by year, such as 2022 to 2030, and may also be set according to the requirement of the user, which is not limited herein. And calculating the initial carbon emission according to the current energy consumption and the current emission situation of the target area.
And S2, correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year.
Wherein the carbon reduction scheme includes, but is not limited to: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or carrying out energy conservation. The predicted carbon emission is the carbon emission corrected by the carbon reduction scheme.
Specifically, assuming that the planning time period is from 2022 to 2030 years, the predicted carbon emissions in 2022 at this time need to be calculated according to the carbon reduction scheme in 2022 and the initial carbon emissions in 2022.
It should be noted that each carbon reduction scheme is provided with a corresponding algorithm for calculating a correction amount of the carbon reduction scheme for the carbon emission, so as to obtain the predicted carbon emission.
And S3, correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained.
Wherein the preset year is any year outside the initial year in the planning time period.
Specifically, assuming that the planned time period is 2022 to 2030, the predicted carbon emission in 2023 needs to be calculated according to the carbon reduction scheme in 2022, the carbon reduction scheme in 2023 and the initial carbon emission in 2023 (which is equivalent to the carbon reduction scheme in 2022 correcting the initial carbon emission in 2023, and the carbon reduction scheme in 2023 correcting the corrected initial carbon emission in 2023), and so on until the predicted carbon emission in each year between 2023 and 2030 is obtained.
Preferably, the S1 includes:
s11, calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of the target area in the initial year in the planning time period according to the current energy consumption data and the current energy consumption loss data of the target area.
Wherein, the current energy consumption data is as follows: actual energy usage of each emission subject of the target area in the initial year. The current energy consumption loss data is the energy consumption loss amount generated by a cold and heat supply system, building heat preservation performance, power supply network loss and the like of a target area in the initial year.
It should be noted that, the calculation method of calculating the initial carbon emission based on the energy consumption data and the energy loss data is the prior art.
And S12, calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of each year in the planning time period based on the average growth rate of the historical energy consumption data of the target area and the initial carbon emission of the initial year.
Wherein, the historical energy consumption data is as follows: energy usage data 5 years or 10 years before the target area. The average growth rate was: the method is determined according to historical energy consumption data and the economic development condition of the target area.
Specifically, assuming that the average growth rate is 10% and the initial carbon emission in the first year is 100kg, the initial carbon emission in the second year is 110kg without the carbon reduction scheme correction, and so on until the initial carbon emission in each year in the planning time period is obtained.
Preferably, the carbon reduction scheme comprises: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or carrying out energy conservation.
Input parameters of "install local renewable energy (install photovoltaic)" include, but are not limited to: installing photovoltaic area, unit photovoltaic panel power generation power, conversion efficiency, light rejection rate, system integration efficiency and the like; input parameters for "local distribution network configuration optimization" include, but are not limited to: the light rejection rate of the local renewable power supply is reduced, and the loss rate of the outsourcing power grid is reduced; input parameters for "installing energy storage device" include, but are not limited to: the light abandonment rate of the local renewable power supply is reduced, and the loss rate of the outsourcing power grid is reduced; the input parameters of the "heating and cooling equipment modification" include but are not limited to: energy efficiency ratio boost; input parameters for "building insulation modification" include, but are not limited to: the building heat-insulating performance is improved; input parameters for "traffic electrification" include, but are not limited to: the number of charging devices of the electric automobile, power configuration, whether to charge orderly or not and whether to regulate and control V2G or not; input parameters for "natural gas hydrogenation" include, but are not limited to: natural gas emission factor reduction; input parameters for "cooking electrification" include, but are not limited to: cooking appliance motorization substitution rate; in addition, the carbon absorption amount is influenced by the carbon reduction scheme of 'green plant planting', and other schemes belong to the technical field of non-new energy, and are not described in detail herein.
It should be noted that the carbon reduction requirement of each of the above schemes varies with the change of the scene, and the specific parameter design can be adjusted according to the requirements of the planner of the target area.
Preferably, each carbon reduction scheme corresponds to one energy use correction and one energy use loss correction.
And calculating the energy consumption correction amount and the energy consumption correction amount corresponding to each carbon reduction scheme by adopting a preset algorithm to obtain the finally corrected predicted carbon emission. As shown in fig. 2, the dotted line frame is a variety of emission reduction measures, the black frame is a main source of carbon emission, and the white frame is a carbon emission-related parameter. The solid black lines in the figure represent the production of positive effects and the dashed lines represent the production of negative effects. The energy consumption correction amount and the energy consumption correction amount corresponding to different carbon reduction schemes are different, for example, the natural gas consumption is reduced according to 'cooking electrification', and the total electricity demand is increased.
The S2 comprises the following steps: and correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the energy consumption correction and the energy consumption correction corresponding to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year.
The S3 comprises the following steps: and correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to the energy consumption correction amount and the energy consumption correction amount corresponding to the carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and the energy consumption correction amount corresponding to the carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year.
Preferably, the method further comprises the following steps:
and S4, obtaining a carbon emission prediction curve graph of the target area in the planning time period according to the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period.
Specifically, when the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained through calculation, a carbon emission prediction graph in the planning time period is generated according to the predicted carbon emission of each year, so that a user can intuitively obtain prediction data of the carbon emission.
In addition, after S4, the carbon reduction scheme of each year is corrected until the ratio of the predicted carbon emission of each year to the energy used in the corresponding year reaches a preset ratio, and the final predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained.
To better embody the technical solution of the present embodiment, the following specific examples are used for illustration to embody the features and advantages of the present invention:
the land occupation of a certain urban park is 8200 square meters, and the urban park is a commercial and residential integrated park in a central area of a city. The park has 9 main buildings, the numbers are A-I, the current power supply mode is mainly that thermal power is bought from a large power grid, and a small amount of photovoltaic installation is arranged. The cold and hot supplying mode is a central air conditioner, a plurality of catering shops are provided, and natural gas open fire can be used for cooking. At present, the ground greening proportion is about 35 percent, and green plants can be planted in open spaces.
The annual energy consumption and classified emission of the park are shown in table 1:
table 1:
three carbon reduction scheme plans are performed by adopting the technical scheme of the invention as shown in the table 2. For convenience of explanation, a first scheme is set as a benchmark comparison, and the first five years of the first scheme have 1% of energy use increase demand every year and then do not change.
Table 2:
in order to explain the addition manner of the carbon reduction scheme in detail, two intermediate steps of the second scheme are taken as an example for description. In fig. 3, traffic electrification is being configured, and fig. 4 is a subsequent step of fig. 3, a rooftop photovoltaic installation simulation is being performed on building E.
As shown in fig. 5, the carbon emission comparison curves corresponding to three different carbon reduction schemes are finally obtained, and it can be seen that the third scheme can achieve the best carbon reduction effect. To further illustrate the reason, analysis was made from categorical energy consumption changes and carbon emission results:
FIG. 6 is a comparison of electricity consumption of three schemes, and in the second scheme, a large amount of cold and heat supply requirements are reduced in 2024 years of building heat preservation, so that the electricity consumption of an air conditioner is reduced, and a small amount of electricity consumption is increased in 2029 years of traffic electrification; in the third scheme, electrification is performed through multiple times of cooking, so that the power consumption demand is increased greatly, and meanwhile, clean electricity replacement is realized through multiple times of photovoltaic installation. Meanwhile, the results of air consumption comparison in the three schemes of FIG. 7 are combined for analysis, and the lines are overlapped because no cooking electrification exists in the first scheme and the second scheme. Therefore, the carbon reduction effect of the third scheme is very obvious.
As can be seen from fig. 8, the third scheme provides multiple times of building heat preservation transformation, so that the intermediate loss of cooling and heating is reduced, the cooling and heating system is upgraded twice, and the energy efficiency ratio is improved, so that the power consumption is greatly reduced.
As can be seen from fig. 9 and 10, the third scheme benefits from multiple photovoltaic installations, the local clean electricity is higher in proportion, and the emission factor of the clean electricity is far smaller than that of the online commercial power, so that the third scheme has significant carbon reduction benefits.
According to the technical scheme, the carbon reduction scheme is correspondingly formulated, the energy consumption and the carbon emission change are analyzed, the carbon reduction emission is predicted, a planning algorithm taking different carbon reduction schemes as input and taking carbon emission prediction as output is provided, and support is provided for relevant carbon emission planning personnel to formulate a carbon reduction strategy.
As shown in fig. 11, a carbon emission prediction system 200 according to an embodiment of the present invention includes: a data acquisition module 210, a first processing module 220, and a second processing module 230;
the data obtaining module 210 is configured to: acquiring the initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period;
the first processing module 220 is configured to: correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
the second processing module 230 is configured to: correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained; wherein the preset year is any year outside the initial year in the planning time period.
Preferably, the data acquisition module is specifically configured to:
calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of the target area in the initial year in the planning time period according to the current energy consumption data and the current energy consumption loss data of the target area;
calculating the initial carbon emission of each year in the planning time period based on the average growth rate of the historical energy consumption data of the target area and the initial carbon emission of the initial year.
Preferably, the carbon reduction scheme comprises: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or saving energy and propagating.
According to the technical scheme, the carbon reduction scheme is correspondingly formulated, the energy consumption and the carbon emission change are analyzed, and then the carbon reduction capacity is predicted, so that a planning algorithm which takes different carbon reduction schemes as input and takes the carbon emission prediction as output is provided, and support is provided for relevant carbon emission planners to formulate the carbon reduction strategy.
The above steps for implementing the corresponding functions of the parameters and modules in the carbon emission prediction system 200 of the present embodiment may refer to the above parameters and steps in the embodiment of the carbon emission prediction method, which are not described herein again.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, including: the storage medium stores instructions, and when the computer reads the instructions, the computer executes the steps of the carbon emission prediction method, which may specifically refer to the parameters and the steps in the above embodiment of the carbon emission prediction method, which are not described herein again.
Computer storage media such as: flash disks, portable hard disks, and the like.
An electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present invention includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and is characterized in that when the processor executes the computer program, the computer executes steps of a carbon emission prediction method, for example, reference may be specifically made to parameters and steps in an embodiment of the carbon emission prediction method, which are not described herein again.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the present invention may be embodied as methods, systems, storage media and electronic devices.
Thus, the present invention may be embodied in the form of: may be embodied entirely in hardware, entirely in software (including firmware, resident software, micro-code, etc.) or in a combination of hardware and software, and may be referred to herein generally as a "circuit," module "or" system. Furthermore, in some embodiments, the invention may also be embodied in the form of a computer program product in one or more computer-readable media having computer-readable program code embodied in the medium. Any combination of one or more computer-readable media may be employed. The computer readable medium may be a computer readable signal medium or a computer readable storage medium. A computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer readable storage medium would include the following: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a Random Access Memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. In the context of this document, a computer readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that can contain, or store a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it will be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and not to be construed as limiting the present invention, and that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method of predicting carbon emissions, comprising:
acquiring the initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period;
correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained; wherein the preset year is any year outside the initial year in the planning time period.
2. A carbon emission prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the initial carbon emissions of the target region for all years within a planned time period comprises:
calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of the target area in the initial year in the planning time period according to the current energy consumption data and the current energy consumption loss data of the target area;
and calculating the initial carbon emission of each year in the planning time period based on the average growth rate of the historical energy consumption data of the target area and the initial carbon emission of the initial year.
3. A carbon emissions prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the carbon reduction scheme comprises: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or carrying out energy conservation.
4. A carbon emission prediction method according to claim 1, wherein each carbon reduction scheme corresponds to an energy use correction amount and an energy use loss correction amount;
the correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year comprises:
correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the energy consumption correction and the energy loss correction corresponding to each carbon reduction scheme of the initial year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
the step of correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year comprises the following steps:
and correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to the energy consumption correction and the energy consumption correction corresponding to each carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and the energy consumption correction corresponding to each carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year.
5. A method of predicting carbon emissions according to any of claims 1-4, further comprising: and obtaining a carbon emission prediction curve graph of the target area in the planning time period according to the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period.
6. A carbon emission prediction system, comprising: the system comprises a data acquisition module, a first processing module and a second processing module;
the data acquisition module is used for: acquiring initial carbon emission of a target area in each year in a planning time period;
the first processing module is configured to: correcting the initial carbon emission of the initial year according to the carbon reduction scheme of the initial year in the planning time period to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the initial year;
the second processing module is configured to: correcting the initial carbon emission of the preset year according to a carbon reduction scheme of the preset year and a carbon reduction scheme of each year before the preset year to obtain the predicted carbon emission of the preset year until the predicted carbon emission of each year in the planning time period is obtained; wherein the preset year is any year outside the initial year in the planning time period.
7. The carbon emission prediction system of claim 6, wherein the data acquisition module is specifically configured to:
calculating to obtain the initial carbon emission of the target area in the initial year in the planning time period according to the current energy consumption data and the current energy consumption loss data of the target area;
and calculating the initial carbon emission of each year in the planning time period based on the average growth rate of the historical energy consumption data of the target area and the initial carbon emission of the initial year.
8. A carbon emissions prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the carbon reduction scheme comprises: installing at least one of local renewable energy sources, optimizing a local power distribution network structure, installing energy storage equipment, modifying cold and heat supply equipment, modifying building heat preservation, carrying out traffic electrification, carrying out cooking electrification, carrying out natural gas hydrogenation, planting green plants, classifying and recycling garbage or saving energy and propagating.
9. A storage medium having stored therein instructions which, when read by a computer, cause the computer to perform a method of carbon emission prediction according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
10. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, causes the computer to perform a method of carbon emission prediction as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 5.
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