CN116227941A - Risk simulation calculation evaluation method and system for water diversion project - Google Patents

Risk simulation calculation evaluation method and system for water diversion project Download PDF

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CN116227941A
CN116227941A CN202310501583.5A CN202310501583A CN116227941A CN 116227941 A CN116227941 A CN 116227941A CN 202310501583 A CN202310501583 A CN 202310501583A CN 116227941 A CN116227941 A CN 116227941A
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姜赛娇
贺晓东
周杜
艾旭军
王赞成
姜英豪
万权
刘雄
皮艳霞
万家高
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Hunan Bestall Water Conservancy Construction Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention belongs to a risk assessment technology, and relates to a risk simulation calculation assessment method and a system for water diversion engineering, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring risk factors of a water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer; acquiring water transfer parameters of a water transfer project, calculating a project safety coefficient according to the water transfer parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer and the project safety coefficient in the analytic hierarchy process model to obtain a project function; calculating the hierarchical weight according to the judgment matrix, the parameter index of the scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function; and sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, performing risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method and the risk simulation calculation evaluation system can improve the accuracy of risk simulation calculation evaluation in the water diversion project.

Description

Risk simulation calculation evaluation method and system for water diversion project
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a risk simulation calculation assessment method and system for water diversion engineering.
Background
The method is applied to large-scale hydraulic engineering from the aspect of engineering project risk management, and the risk management activities are divided into four stages of system definition, system construction, system quantification and system evaluation, wherein each stage comprises a plurality of steps; secondly, according to the theory and method of risk assessment, carrying out risk analysis on main initial events affecting the safety of the plump dam, researching and exploring the risk of the accident of the dam, and accordingly providing suggestions for reinforcing and strengthening the plump dam; thirdly, according to the risk analysis and disaster assessment principle, flood and earthquake risks of different grades possibly encountered in downstream of the smooth river and losses caused by the flood and the earthquake risks are analyzed, and a plurality of researches such as scientific basis are provided for disaster prevention and reduction decisions.
Because south-to-north water diversion line engineering is always an important water diversion engineering for solving the problem of uneven water resource allocation in China, but because the water diversion engineering is generally long in line, the conditions of terrain, geology, traffic and the like of the area along the way are changeable, an open channel water delivery is generally adopted as a main part, a crossing structure such as an auxiliary aqueduct, an inverted siphon, a tunnel and the like and a dispatching control building such as a control gate, a diversion gate, a water return gate and the like are arranged, and the building is often subjected to channel section form and section area change in the process of connection. The risk assessment of the existing water diversion project has the problems that a risk factor identification system is not available, the assessment method has single visual angle, canal system series response is not considered and the like, so that the risk assessment of the planned project cannot be carried out, and further the problem that the accuracy of risk simulation calculation assessment in the water diversion project is low is caused.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a risk simulation calculation evaluation method and a system for a water diversion project, and mainly aims to solve the problem that the accuracy of risk simulation calculation evaluation in the water diversion project is low.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a risk simulation calculation evaluation method for a water diversion project, including:
acquiring risk factors of a water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
acquiring water diversion parameters of the water diversion project, calculating a project safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the project safety coefficient to obtain a project function;
calculating hierarchical weights according to the judgment matrix, parameter indexes of a scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function;
and sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, performing risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
Optionally, the establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factor includes:
acquiring target points of the water diversion project, storing a plurality of target points into a preset target library, and taking the target library as a target layer;
acquiring checking items corresponding to the water diversion project, integrating the conditions of a plurality of checking items to obtain a condition library, and taking the condition library as a criterion layer;
generating a water diversion scheme corresponding to the water diversion project according to the risk factors, the target layer and the criterion layer, and integrating a plurality of water diversion schemes to obtain a scheme layer;
and carrying out relevance analysis according to the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer to obtain a hierarchical analysis model.
Optionally, the constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factor includes:
randomly selecting two risk factors from the risk factors to perform ratio calculation to obtain a risk measure;
dividing the risk metric according to a preset proportion scale to obtain a risk metric value, and generating a judgment matrix by using the risk metric value;
the judgment matrix is expressed as:
Figure SMS_1
wherein ,
Figure SMS_2
representing the judgment matrix- >
Figure SMS_3
Indicate->
Figure SMS_4
Risk factors and->
Figure SMS_5
Risk metric values for the individual risk factors.
Optionally, the calculating the engineering safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameter includes:
calculating a parameter value of the section shape of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project according to the material internal friction angle in the water diversion parameter;
calculating the parameter value of the section shape of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_6
wherein ,
Figure SMS_7
parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure SMS_8
Representing the internal friction angle of the material;
calculating the water stress of the water diversion project by using the internal friction angle of the material, the parameter value and the cohesive force in the water diversion parameter;
calculating the water stress of the water diversion project by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_9
wherein ,
Figure SMS_10
representing the water stress, < >>
Figure SMS_11
Indicating the cohesion in said water transfer parameter,/->
Figure SMS_12
Parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure SMS_13
Representing the internal friction angle of the material;
and calculating engineering safety coefficients according to the water regulating parameters, the parameter values and the water stress.
Optionally, the calculating the engineering safety coefficient according to the water regulating parameter, the parameter value and the water stress includes:
calculating the engineering safety coefficient by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_14
/>
wherein ,
Figure SMS_15
representing said engineering safety factor,/->
Figure SMS_16
Represents horizontal and vertical ground stress in the water transfer parameters,/and->
Figure SMS_17
Parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure SMS_18
Representing the supporting stress in the water transfer parameter, < >>
Figure SMS_19
Representing the water stress, < >>
Figure SMS_20
Representing the initial radius of the sluice in said water diversion parameters.
Optionally, the performing function fitting on the criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function includes:
acquiring a criterion index of the criterion layer, and calculating by using the criterion index and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function;
the engineering function is expressed as:
Figure SMS_21
wherein ,
Figure SMS_22
indicate->
Figure SMS_23
Criterion index->
Figure SMS_24
Indicate->
Figure SMS_25
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure SMS_26
Representing preset calculation parameters.
Optionally, the calculating the hierarchical weight according to the judgment matrix, the parameter index of the scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function includes:
selecting a plurality of column vectors from the judgment matrix, carrying out normalization processing on the plurality of column vectors to obtain a normalization vector, and calculating a first-level weight by using the normalization vector and a risk metric value in the judgment matrix;
Adjusting the engineering function by using the parameter indexes to obtain a simplified function, and calculating second-level weights corresponding to a plurality of parameter indexes by using the simplified function;
the second-level weights are calculated using the following formula:
Figure SMS_27
wherein ,
Figure SMS_28
representing the second level weight, +.>
Figure SMS_29
Indicate->
Figure SMS_30
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure SMS_31
Representing the calculated parameters->
Figure SMS_32
Representing the total number of the criterion indexes;
and carrying out mean value calculation according to the first level weight and the second level weight to obtain a plurality of level weights.
Optionally, the calculating the first-level weight by using the normalization vector and the risk metric value in the judgment matrix includes:
the first level weight is calculated using the following formula:
Figure SMS_33
wherein ,
Figure SMS_35
representing the first level weight, ++>
Figure SMS_39
Indicate->
Figure SMS_40
Risk factors and->
Figure SMS_36
Risk metric value of individual risk factors, +.>
Figure SMS_38
Indicate->
Figure SMS_41
Line->
Figure SMS_42
Normalization vector of individual risk factors, +.>
Figure SMS_34
Representing the total number of columns of the risk metric values,
Figure SMS_37
representing the total number of rows of the risk factor.
Optionally, the risk assessment of the water diversion project according to the index sequence includes:
determining risk factors of the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and counting occurrence frequencies of the risk factors in the water diversion project;
Acquiring a historical water diversion accident, and matching the risk factors with the historical risk factors in the historical water diversion accident;
when the risk factors and the historical risk factors are successfully matched, taking the historical water diversion accident as a water diversion accident of the water diversion project, and acquiring a historical accident result of the historical water diversion accident as an accident result of the water diversion project;
and calculating the occurrence frequency and the severity of the accident result to obtain the risk degree.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention further provides a risk simulation computing and evaluating system for water diversion engineering, the system comprising:
the judgment matrix construction module is used for acquiring risk factors of the water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
the engineering function calculation module is used for obtaining the water diversion parameters of the water diversion engineering, calculating engineering safety coefficients according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the engineering safety coefficients to obtain engineering functions;
The hierarchical weight calculation module is used for calculating hierarchical weights according to the judgment matrix, the parameter indexes of the scheme layers in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function;
and the risk level judging module is used for sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, carrying out risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the hierarchical analysis model is established through the water diversion project and the risk factors, so that the hierarchical analysis model has clear hierarchy and more accurate structure; constructing a judgment matrix through the risk factors, so that the judgment matrix can more accurately analyze the influence degree of the risk factors on the analytic hierarchy process model; the engineering safety coefficient obtained by calculation of the water diversion parameters is more accurate; the hierarchical weight is calculated in multiple aspects, so that the scheme weight is more accurate only according to single view angle data, and errors are reduced; and ordering the parameter indexes of the scheme layer through the hierarchical weight, so that the obtained index sequence accords with the predicted severity, and the accuracy of risk assessment is ensured. Therefore, the risk simulation calculation evaluation method and system for the water diversion project can solve the problem of low accuracy of risk simulation calculation evaluation in the water diversion project.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk simulation calculation evaluation method for a water diversion project according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an analytic hierarchy process model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic flow chart of calculating hierarchical weights according to a judgment matrix, parameter indexes of a scheme layer in a hierarchical analysis model, and engineering functions according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a functional block diagram of a risk simulation computing and evaluating system for water diversion projects according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device for implementing the risk simulation calculation evaluation method for water diversion engineering according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The achievement of the objects, functional features and advantages of the present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings, in conjunction with the embodiments.
Detailed Description
It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The embodiment of the application provides a risk simulation calculation evaluation method for a water diversion project. The execution subject of the risk simulation calculation evaluation method of the water diversion project includes, but is not limited to, at least one of a server, a terminal and the like capable of being configured to execute the electronic equipment of the method provided by the embodiment of the application. In other words, the risk simulation calculation evaluation method of the water diversion project can be executed by software or hardware installed on a terminal device or a server device, and the software can be a blockchain platform. The service end includes but is not limited to: a single server, a server cluster, a cloud server or a cloud server cluster, and the like. The server may be an independent server, or may be a cloud server that provides cloud services, cloud databases, cloud computing, cloud functions, cloud storage, network services, cloud communications, middleware services, domain name services, security services, content delivery networks (Content Delivery Network, CDN), and basic cloud computing services such as big data and artificial intelligence platforms.
Referring to fig. 1, a flow chart of a risk simulation calculation evaluation method for a water diversion project according to an embodiment of the invention is shown. In this embodiment, the risk simulation calculation evaluation method for the water diversion project includes:
s1, acquiring risk factors of a water diversion project, establishing an analytic hierarchy process model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the analytic hierarchy process model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer.
In the embodiment of the invention, the water diversion project refers to a series of hydraulic projects for guiding, regulating and supplementing water from a region with rich water resources to a water-deficient region, such as a ditch, a culvert, a pumping irrigation station and the like which are built along the way, so that the reasonable allocation of the water resources in the north and south and the mutual economy of things is realized; the risk factors include, but are not limited to, engineering, environmental, and economic risk factors, including, for example, geologic formations, precipitation conditions, water system distances, and earth surface coverings, among others.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factor includes:
acquiring target points of the water diversion project, storing a plurality of target points into a preset target library, and taking the target library as a target layer;
Acquiring checking items corresponding to the water diversion project, integrating the conditions of a plurality of checking items to obtain a condition library, and taking the condition library as a criterion layer;
generating a water diversion scheme corresponding to the water diversion project according to the risk factors, the target layer and the criterion layer, and integrating a plurality of water diversion schemes to obtain a scheme layer;
and carrying out relevance analysis according to the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer to obtain a hierarchical analysis model.
In the embodiment of the invention, the checking item refers to a quality checking item of a sluice corresponding to the water diversion project, the quality checking item refers to checking materials of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project, the materials comprise cement quality data, additive content data, concrete weight data and the like, and the materials can be used as criterion indexes of the criterion layer; the data content requirements corresponding to the criterion indexes are different, so that the safety engineering coefficients corresponding to the criterion indexes are different, and the conditions corresponding to each criterion index are also different, for example, the additive content needs to be added according to the standard content, so that the safety of the water diversion engineering can be improved.
In the embodiment of the invention, a target point in the target layer is selected, when the target point needs to carry out water diversion work, a water diversion point closest to the target point is selected, material configuration is carried out according to the conditions required by a plurality of criterion indexes corresponding to the criterion layer, risks possibly encountered due to the risk factors in the water diversion process are judged, countermeasures are taken for the risks, and therefore the water diversion scheme is formed, and the target point, the water diversion point, the materials and the risks in the water diversion scheme are all parameter indexes corresponding to the water diversion scheme.
In the embodiment of the invention, performing relevance analysis according to the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer refers to calculating by using a relevance algorithm to obtain the relevance relationship among the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer, and connecting the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer according to the relevance relationship and a tree structure to obtain a hierarchical analysis model.
In the embodiment of the invention, the target library is a database for storing the target points; randomly selecting a target point which needs to be subjected to water diversion engineering, wherein the target point possibly comprises a plurality of criteria, namely conditions and a plurality of water diversion schemes, so as to form an analytic hierarchy model of the target-criteria-scheme; the specific structure of the analytic hierarchy model is shown in fig. 2, wherein the target layer contains targets; the criteria layer includes a plurality of criteria, such as criteria 1, criteria 2, and criteria 3 in the figure; the scheme layer includes a plurality of schemes, for example, scheme 1, scheme 2, scheme 3, and scheme 4 in the drawing.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factor includes:
randomly selecting two risk factors from the risk factors to perform ratio calculation to obtain a risk measure;
dividing the risk metric according to a preset proportion scale to obtain a risk metric value, and generating a judgment matrix by using the risk metric value.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the judgment matrix may be expressed as:
Figure SMS_43
wherein ,
Figure SMS_44
representing the judgment matrix->
Figure SMS_45
Indicate->
Figure SMS_46
Risk factors and->
Figure SMS_47
Risk metric values for the individual risk factors.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risk measure can be used for representing the ratio of the influence degree of the risk factor on the target layer.
In the embodiment of the invention, the scale may adopt a traditional saath scale method, for example, the risk measure is divided according to a scale of 1-9, so as to obtain a risk measure value; when the scale is 1, it is equally important to represent two of said risk factors; when the scale is 3, 5, 7, 9, it means that one of the risk factors is more important than the other; when the scale is 2, 4, 6, 8, the intermediate value of two adjacent judgments is represented; and generating pairwise contrast matrixes, also called judgment matrixes, by using the risk metric values.
S2, acquiring water diversion parameters of the water diversion project, calculating project safety coefficients according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the project safety coefficients to obtain a project function.
In the embodiment of the invention, the water diversion parameters include, but are not limited to, the initial radius of the sluice, horizontal and vertical ground stress, supporting stress, internal friction angle of the material and cohesive force.
In the embodiment of the invention, the parameters in the water diversion parameters are opposite to the criterion indexes of the criterion layer, and the data content corresponding to the criterion indexes of the criterion layer is not fixed, so that the parameters in the water diversion parameters are also changed, namely the engineering safety coefficient corresponding to the criterion indexes is also changed.
In the embodiment of the invention, the calculating the engineering safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameter comprises the following steps:
calculating a parameter value of the section shape of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project according to the material internal friction angle in the water diversion parameter;
calculating the water stress of the water diversion project by using the internal friction angle of the material, the parameter value and the cohesive force in the water diversion parameter;
and calculating engineering safety coefficients according to the water regulating parameters, the parameter values and the water stress.
In the embodiment of the invention, the following formula is used for calculating the parameter value of the section shape of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project:
Figure SMS_48
wherein ,
Figure SMS_49
parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure SMS_50
Representing the internal friction angle of the material.
In the embodiment of the invention, the water stress of the water diversion project is calculated by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_51
wherein ,
Figure SMS_52
representing the water stress, < >>
Figure SMS_53
Indicating the cohesion in said water transfer parameter,/->
Figure SMS_54
Parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure SMS_55
Representing the internal friction angle of the material.
In the embodiment of the invention, the engineering safety coefficient is calculated by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_56
wherein ,
Figure SMS_57
representation ofThe engineering safety factor,/->
Figure SMS_58
Represents horizontal and vertical ground stress in the water transfer parameters,/and->
Figure SMS_59
Parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure SMS_60
Representing the supporting stress in the water transfer parameter, < >>
Figure SMS_61
Representing the water stress, < >>
Figure SMS_62
Representing the initial radius of the sluice in said water diversion parameters.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the performing function fitting on the criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy process model and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function includes:
acquiring a criterion index of the criterion layer, and calculating by using the criterion index and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function;
The engineering function is expressed as:
Figure SMS_63
wherein ,
Figure SMS_64
indicate->
Figure SMS_65
Criterion index->
Figure SMS_66
Indicate->
Figure SMS_67
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure SMS_68
Representing preset calculation parameters.
S3, calculating the hierarchical weight according to the judgment matrix, the parameter index of the scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function.
Referring to fig. 3, in the embodiment of the present invention, the calculating the hierarchical weight according to the judgment matrix, the parameter index of the scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model, and the engineering function includes:
s31, selecting a plurality of column vectors from the judgment matrix, carrying out normalization processing on the plurality of column vectors to obtain a normalization vector, and calculating a first-level weight by using the normalization vector and a risk metric value in the judgment matrix;
s32, adjusting the engineering function by using the parameter indexes to obtain a simplified function, and calculating second-level weights corresponding to the parameter indexes by using the simplified function;
and S33, carrying out mean value calculation according to the first level weight and the second level weight to obtain a plurality of level weights.
In the embodiment of the invention, the normalization processing of the plurality of column vectors can converge to accelerate program operation, thereby improving data processing efficiency.
In the embodiment of the invention, the parameter index is utilized to adjust the engineering function to obtain the simplified function, which means that the calculated parameters in the engineering function are scaled in the same proportion according to the size of the parameter index until the engineering function is simplified into:
Figure SMS_69
； wherein ,/>
Figure SMS_70
Indicate->
Figure SMS_71
Criterion index->
Figure SMS_72
Indicate->
Figure SMS_73
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure SMS_74
Representing preset calculation parameters; the method can play a role in simplifying engineering function parameters, thereby accelerating calculation efficiency.
In the embodiment of the invention, the first-level weight is calculated by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_75
wherein ,
Figure SMS_78
representing the first level weight, ++>
Figure SMS_79
Indicate->
Figure SMS_82
Risk factors and->
Figure SMS_77
Risk metric value of individual risk factors, +.>
Figure SMS_80
Indicate->
Figure SMS_83
Line->
Figure SMS_84
Normalization vector of individual risk factors, +.>
Figure SMS_76
Representing the total number of columns of the risk metric values,
Figure SMS_81
representing the total number of rows of the risk factor.
In the embodiment of the invention, the second-level weight is calculated by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_85
wherein ,
Figure SMS_86
representing the second level weight, +.>
Figure SMS_87
Indicate->
Figure SMS_88
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure SMS_89
Representing the calculated parameters->
Figure SMS_90
Representing the total number of criteria indicators.
In the embodiment of the invention, the hierarchy weight is calculated by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_91
wherein ,
Figure SMS_92
indicate->
Figure SMS_93
Individual hierarchy weights,/->
Figure SMS_94
Representing the first level weight, ++>
Figure SMS_95
Representing the second level weight.
And S4, sorting the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, carrying out risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
In the embodiment of the invention, the parameter indexes can be classified according to the weight of the scheme, for example, the parameter indexes can be classified into four parameter grades which are very important, general and unimportant, and the parameter grade is obtained; the parameter indexes are numbered based on the parameter grades, the parameter indexes can be numbered in an initial mode to obtain index numbers, and an index sequence is generated according to the index numbers and the parameter indexes corresponding to the index numbers.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the risk assessment for the water diversion project according to the index sequence includes:
determining risk factors of the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and counting occurrence frequencies of the risk factors in the water diversion project;
Acquiring a historical water diversion accident, and matching the risk factors with the historical risk factors in the historical water diversion accident;
when the risk factors and the historical risk factors are successfully matched, taking the historical water diversion accident as a water diversion accident of the water diversion project, and acquiring a historical accident result of the historical water diversion accident as an accident result of the water diversion project;
and calculating the occurrence frequency and the severity of the accident result to obtain the risk degree.
In the embodiment of the invention, important parameter indexes of the water diversion project are analyzed according to the index sequence, the important parameter indexes are used as risk factors of the water diversion project, the occurrence frequency of the risk factors is counted in the process of executing the water diversion project, the historical water diversion accidents with the matching degree of more than 80% are matched with the historical risk factors in the historical water diversion accidents, and the historical water diversion accidents with the matching degree of more than 80% are used as the water diversion accidents corresponding to the water diversion project, and the accident consequences corresponding to the water diversion accidents are obtained; calculating the occurrence frequency and the severity of the accident result by using a working condition risk analysis (LEC) method to obtain a risk degree, wherein the risk degree can be calculated by using the following formula:
Figure SMS_96
wherein ,
Figure SMS_97
indicative of the degree of risk,/->
Figure SMS_98
Representing the frequency of occurrence,/->
Figure SMS_99
Indicating the severity of the consequences of the accident.
In the embodiment of the invention, the severity of the accident result can be represented by a numerical value, for example, the severity is represented by 10 numbers of 1-10, and the greater the numerical value of the severity is, the more serious the accident result is.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risk degree is classified to obtain risk grades, for example, the risk grades are classified into four grades which are necessarily, possibly, rarely and possibly occurring, and corresponding preparation measures are adopted for the risk grades, so that risk occurrence is avoided.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the hierarchical analysis model is established through the water diversion project and the risk factors, so that the hierarchical analysis model has clear hierarchy and more accurate structure; constructing a judgment matrix through the risk factors, so that the judgment matrix can more accurately analyze the influence degree of the risk factors on the analytic hierarchy process model; the engineering safety coefficient obtained by calculation of the water diversion parameters is more accurate; the hierarchical weight is calculated in multiple aspects, so that the scheme weight is more accurate only according to single view angle data, and errors are reduced; and ordering the parameter indexes of the scheme layer through the hierarchical weight, so that the obtained index sequence accords with the predicted severity, and the accuracy of risk assessment is ensured. Therefore, the risk simulation calculation evaluation method for the water diversion project can solve the problem of low accuracy of risk simulation calculation evaluation in the water diversion project.
Fig. 4 is a functional block diagram of a risk simulation calculation evaluation system for water diversion projects according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The risk simulation calculation evaluation system 400 of the water diversion project can be installed in electronic equipment. The risk simulation computing and evaluating system 400 of the water diversion project can comprise a judging matrix constructing module 401, a project function computing module 402, a hierarchical weight computing module 403 and a risk grade judging module 404 according to the implemented functions. The module of the invention, which may also be referred to as a unit, refers to a series of computer program segments, which are stored in the memory of the electronic device, capable of being executed by the processor of the electronic device and of performing a fixed function.
In the present embodiment, the functions concerning the respective modules/units are as follows:
the judgment matrix construction module 401 is configured to obtain risk factors of a water diversion project, build an analytic hierarchy process model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and construct a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, where the analytic hierarchy process model includes a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
the engineering function calculation module 402 is configured to obtain a water diversion parameter of the water diversion project, calculate an engineering safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameter, and perform function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy process model and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function;
The hierarchical weight calculation module 403 is configured to calculate a hierarchical weight according to the judgment matrix, the parameter index of the scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model, and the engineering function;
the risk level determining module 404 is configured to sort the parameter indexes of the solution layer based on the hierarchical weight, obtain an index sequence, perform risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and determine a risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessed result.
In detail, the modules in the risk simulation calculation evaluation system 400 of the water diversion project in the embodiment of the present invention use the same technical means as the risk simulation calculation evaluation method of the water diversion project in the drawings, and can produce the same technical effects, which are not described herein.
Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device for implementing a risk simulation calculation evaluation method for a water diversion project according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The electronic device 500 may comprise a processor 501, a memory 502, a communication bus 503 and a communication interface 504, and may further comprise a computer program stored in the memory 502 and executable on the processor 501, such as a risk simulation calculation evaluation program for a water diversion project.
The processor 501 may be formed by an integrated circuit in some embodiments, for example, a single packaged integrated circuit, or may be formed by a plurality of integrated circuits packaged with the same function or different functions, including one or more central processing units (Central Processing Unit, CPU), a microprocessor, a digital processing chip, a graphics processor, a combination of various control chips, and so on. The processor 501 is a Control Unit (Control Unit) of the electronic device, connects various components of the entire electronic device using various interfaces and lines, executes or executes programs or modules (e.g., a risk simulation calculation evaluation program for executing a water diversion project, etc.) stored in the memory 502, and invokes data stored in the memory 502 to perform various functions of the electronic device and process the data.
The memory 502 includes at least one type of readable storage medium including flash memory, a removable hard disk, a multimedia card, a card memory (e.g., SD or DX memory, etc.), magnetic memory, magnetic disk, optical disk, etc. The memory 502 may in some embodiments be an internal storage unit of the electronic device, such as a mobile hard disk of the electronic device. The memory 502 may also be an external storage device of the electronic device in other embodiments, for example, a plug-in mobile hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card) or the like. Further, the memory 502 may also include both internal storage units and external storage devices of the electronic device. The memory 502 may be used to store not only application software installed in an electronic device and various data, such as codes of a risk simulation calculation evaluation program of a water diversion project, but also temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
The communication bus 503 may be a peripheral component interconnect standard (Peripheral Component Interconnect, PCI) bus or an extended industry standard architecture (Extended Industry Standard Architecture, EISA) bus, among others. The bus may be classified as an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. The bus is arranged to enable connected communication between the memory 502 and the at least one processor 501 etc.
The communication interface 504 is used for communication between the electronic device and other devices, including network interfaces and user interfaces. Optionally, the network interface may include a wired interface and/or a wireless interface (e.g., WI-FI interface, bluetooth interface, etc.), typically used to establish a communication connection between the electronic device and other electronic devices. The user interface may be a Display (Display), an input unit such as a Keyboard (Keyboard), or alternatively a standard wired interface, a wireless interface. Alternatively, in some embodiments, the display may be an LED display, a liquid crystal display, a touch-sensitive liquid crystal display, an OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) touch, or the like. The display may also be referred to as a display screen or display unit, as appropriate, for displaying information processed in the electronic device and for displaying a visual user interface.
Fig. 5 illustrates only an electronic device having components, and it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the configuration illustrated in fig. 5 is not limiting of the electronic device 500 and may include fewer or more components than illustrated, or may combine certain components, or a different arrangement of components.
For example, although not shown, the electronic device may further include a power source (such as a battery) for powering the respective components, and the power source may be logically connected to the at least one processor 501 through a power management system, so as to perform functions of charge management, discharge management, and power consumption management through the power management system. The power supply may also include one or more of any of a direct current or alternating current power supply, a recharging system, a power failure detection circuit, a power converter or inverter, a power status indicator, and the like. The electronic device may further include various sensors, bluetooth modules, wi-Fi modules, etc., which are not described herein.
It should be understood that the embodiments described are for illustrative purposes only and are not limited to this configuration in the scope of the patent application.
The risk simulation calculation evaluation program of the water diversion project stored in the memory 502 in the electronic device 500 is a combination of a plurality of instructions, which when run in the processor 501, can realize:
Acquiring risk factors of a water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
acquiring water diversion parameters of the water diversion project, calculating a project safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the project safety coefficient to obtain a project function;
calculating hierarchical weights according to the judgment matrix, parameter indexes of a scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function;
and sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, performing risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
In particular, the specific implementation method of the above instruction by the processor 501 may refer to the description of the relevant steps in the corresponding embodiment of the drawings, which is not repeated herein.
Further, the modules/units integrated with the electronic device 500 may be stored in a computer readable storage medium if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as a stand alone product. The computer readable storage medium may be volatile or nonvolatile. For example, the computer readable medium may include: any entity or system capable of carrying the computer program code, a recording medium, a U disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer Memory, a Read-Only Memory (ROM).
The present invention also provides a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor of an electronic device, can implement:
acquiring risk factors of a water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
acquiring water diversion parameters of the water diversion project, calculating a project safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the project safety coefficient to obtain a project function;
calculating hierarchical weights according to the judgment matrix, parameter indexes of a scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function;
and sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, performing risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
In the several embodiments provided by the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus, system and method may be implemented in other manners. For example, the system embodiments described above are merely illustrative, e.g., the division of the modules is merely a logical function division, and other manners of division may be implemented in practice.
The modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and components shown as modules may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed over multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional module in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit. The integrated units can be realized in a form of hardware or a form of hardware and a form of software functional modules.
It will be evident to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the foregoing illustrative embodiments, and that the present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential characteristics thereof.
The present embodiments are, therefore, to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein. Any reference signs in the claims shall not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
The embodiment of the application can acquire and process the related data based on the artificial intelligence technology. Among these, artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence, AI) is the theory, method, technique and application system that uses a digital computer or a digital computer-controlled machine to simulate, extend and extend human intelligence, sense the environment, acquire knowledge and use knowledge to obtain optimal results.
Furthermore, it is evident that the word "comprising" does not exclude other elements or steps, and that the singular does not exclude a plurality. Multiple units or systems as set forth in the system claims may also be implemented by means of one unit or system in software or hardware. The terms first, second, etc. are used to denote a name, but not any particular order.
Finally, it should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments are merely for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that modifications and equivalents may be made to the technical solution of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method for the water diversion project is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
Acquiring risk factors of a water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
acquiring water diversion parameters of the water diversion project, calculating a project safety coefficient according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the project safety coefficient to obtain a project function;
calculating hierarchical weights according to the judgment matrix, parameter indexes of a scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function;
and sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, performing risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
2. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of the water diversion project according to claim 1, wherein the establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factor comprises:
acquiring target points of the water diversion project, storing a plurality of target points into a preset target library, and taking the target library as a target layer;
Acquiring checking items corresponding to the water diversion project, integrating the conditions of a plurality of checking items to obtain a condition library, and taking the condition library as a criterion layer;
generating a water diversion scheme corresponding to the water diversion project according to the risk factors, the target layer and the criterion layer, and integrating a plurality of water diversion schemes to obtain a scheme layer;
and carrying out relevance analysis according to the target layer, the criterion layer and the scheme layer to obtain a hierarchical analysis model.
3. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of water diversion project according to claim 1, wherein the constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors comprises:
randomly selecting two risk factors from the risk factors to perform ratio calculation to obtain a risk measure;
dividing the risk metric according to a preset proportion scale to obtain a risk metric value, and generating a judgment matrix by using the risk metric value;
the judgment matrix is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_1
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_2
representing the judgment matrix->
Figure QLYQS_3
Indicate->
Figure QLYQS_4
Risk factors and->
Figure QLYQS_5
Risk metric values for the individual risk factors.
4. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of a water diversion project according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the project safety factor according to the water diversion parameter comprises:
Calculating a parameter value of the section shape of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project according to the material internal friction angle in the water diversion parameter;
calculating the parameter value of the section shape of the sluice corresponding to the water diversion project by using the following formula:
Figure QLYQS_6
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_7
parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure QLYQS_8
Representing the internal friction angle of the material;
calculating the water stress of the water diversion project by using the internal friction angle of the material, the parameter value and the cohesive force in the water diversion parameter;
calculating the water stress of the water diversion project by using the following formula:
Figure QLYQS_9
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_10
representing the water stress, < >>
Figure QLYQS_11
Indicating the cohesion in said water transfer parameter,/->
Figure QLYQS_12
Parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure QLYQS_13
Representing the internal friction angle of the material;
and calculating engineering safety coefficients according to the water regulating parameters, the parameter values and the water stress.
5. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of water diversion project according to claim 4, wherein the calculating project safety factor according to the water diversion parameter, the parameter value and the water stress comprises:
calculating the engineering safety coefficient by using the following formula:
Figure QLYQS_14
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_15
representing said engineering safety factor,/->
Figure QLYQS_16
Represents horizontal and vertical ground stress in the water transfer parameters,/and- >
Figure QLYQS_17
Parameter values representing the cross-sectional shape, +.>
Figure QLYQS_18
Representing the supporting stress in the water transfer parameter, < >>
Figure QLYQS_19
Representing the water stress, < >>
Figure QLYQS_20
Representing the initial radius of the sluice in said water diversion parameters.
6. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of water diversion project according to claim 1, wherein the performing function fitting on the criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy process model and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function comprises:
acquiring a criterion index of the criterion layer, and calculating by using the criterion index and the engineering safety coefficient to obtain an engineering function;
the engineering function is expressed as:
Figure QLYQS_21
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_22
indicate->
Figure QLYQS_23
Criterion index->
Figure QLYQS_24
Indicate->
Figure QLYQS_25
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure QLYQS_26
Representing preset calculation parameters.
7. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of a water diversion project according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the hierarchical weight according to the judgment matrix, the parameter index of the scheme layer in the hierarchical analysis model, and the engineering function comprises:
selecting a plurality of column vectors from the judgment matrix, carrying out normalization processing on the plurality of column vectors to obtain a normalization vector, and calculating a first-level weight by using the normalization vector and a risk metric value in the judgment matrix;
Adjusting the engineering function by using the parameter indexes to obtain a simplified function, and calculating second-level weights corresponding to a plurality of parameter indexes by using the simplified function;
the second-level weights are calculated using the following formula:
Figure QLYQS_27
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_28
representing the second level weight, +.>
Figure QLYQS_29
Indicate->
Figure QLYQS_30
Engineering safety coefficient corresponding to each criterion index, +.>
Figure QLYQS_31
Representing the calculated parameters->
Figure QLYQS_32
Representing the total number of the criterion indexes;
and carrying out mean value calculation according to the first level weight and the second level weight to obtain a plurality of level weights.
8. The method for risk simulation calculation and evaluation of water diversion project according to claim 7, wherein calculating the first-level weight by using the normalized vector and the risk metric in the judgment matrix comprises:
the first level weight is calculated using the following formula:
Figure QLYQS_33
wherein ,
Figure QLYQS_36
representing the first level weight, ++>
Figure QLYQS_37
Indicate->
Figure QLYQS_40
Risk factors and->
Figure QLYQS_35
Risk metric value of individual risk factors, +.>
Figure QLYQS_39
Indicate->
Figure QLYQS_41
Line->
Figure QLYQS_42
Normalization vector of individual risk factors, +.>
Figure QLYQS_34
Representing the total number of columns of the risk metric, < >>
Figure QLYQS_38
Representing the total number of rows of the risk factor.
9. The risk simulation calculation evaluation method of a water diversion project according to claim 1, wherein the risk evaluation of the water diversion project according to the index sequence comprises:
Determining risk factors of the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and counting occurrence frequencies of the risk factors in the water diversion project;
acquiring a historical water diversion accident, and matching the risk factors with the historical risk factors in the historical water diversion accident;
when the risk factors and the historical risk factors are successfully matched, taking the historical water diversion accident as a water diversion accident of the water diversion project, and acquiring a historical accident result of the historical water diversion accident as an accident result of the water diversion project;
and calculating the occurrence frequency and the severity of the accident result to obtain the risk degree.
10. A risk simulation computing and evaluating system for water diversion projects, the system comprising:
the judgment matrix construction module is used for acquiring risk factors of the water diversion project, establishing a hierarchical analysis model according to the water diversion project and the risk factors, and constructing a judgment matrix according to the risk factors, wherein the hierarchical analysis model comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer;
the engineering function calculation module is used for obtaining the water diversion parameters of the water diversion engineering, calculating engineering safety coefficients according to the water diversion parameters, and performing function fitting on a criterion layer in the analytic hierarchy model and the engineering safety coefficients to obtain engineering functions;
The hierarchical weight calculation module is used for calculating hierarchical weights according to the judgment matrix, the parameter indexes of the scheme layers in the hierarchical analysis model and the engineering function;
and the risk level judging module is used for sequencing the parameter indexes of the scheme layer based on the hierarchical weight to obtain an index sequence, carrying out risk assessment on the water diversion project according to the index sequence, and judging the risk level of the water diversion project according to the assessment result.
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