CN107122851A - A kind of lake water systems connects engineering proposal optimization model Sensitivity Analysis Method - Google Patents
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Abstract
Engineering proposal optimization model Sensitivity Analysis Method is connected the present invention relates to a kind of lake water systems, including：Set up index system；Set up Evaluation formula；Determine Vague values；Primary election Vague collection score function models；Index attribute value changing sensitivity is analyzed；Index weightses changing sensitivity is analyzed；Choose preferred plan.The present invention is combined to subjective, objective weighted model, based on the small thought as far as possible of deviation between combining weights and former weight, the Combining weights of indices are asked for, the advantage of subjective weighting method and objective weighted model is so preferably taken into account, obtained combining weights more meet actual demand.Based on cloud model to Vague collection score function models in each index attribute value and the uncertainty and the robust analysis of ambiguity making policy decision result of weighted value, new reference frame is provided for the quality of objective evaluation difference Vague collection score function models, and then contributes to policymaker to select suitable Vague collection score function model to draw best decision scheme.
Description
Technical field
Engineering proposal optimization model Sensitivity Analysis Method is connected the present invention relates to a kind of lake water systems, is a kind of water conservancy work
Journey analysis method, is a kind of analysis method applied to WR project plan.
Background technology
Because lake water systems connectivity problem has particularity, lake water systems connection is not concerned only with to ecological environment and is exchanged
Go out area or recall the influence of the regional areas such as area, and to pay close attention to it to connection line of project region and whole connected system
Combined influence.Exploration of most research concerns to influence itself at present, it is excellent how to realize that quantitative overall merit is come to influence
Select lake water systems then to study relatively fewer, it is necessary to follow the course of nature and economic law in terms of connecting engineering proposal, strengthen connection
Project Demonstration and scheme comparison, pay much attention to lake water systems connection to eco-environmental impact, focus on connection Risk assessment on engineering and grind
Study carefully.At present have expert graded, step analysis gray relative analysis method, fuzzy evaluation, artificial neural network, Matter Analysis and
A variety of methods such as projection pursuit can apply to scheme preferably and sort, but because the basis that they set up is different, respectively have
Shortcoming and defect, therefore corresponding research has been carried out in many fields, to explore the application characteristic and applicable object of these evaluation methods.
Current Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment obtains increasingly extensive application in practical work, and it is solved in classical mathematics model
The limitation of certain problem can only be described with " either-or ", describes non-true using the Fuzzy Set Theory of " being this or that "
Qualitative question.But traditional fuzzy collection is only capable of reflecting that fuzzy message is subordinate to situation certainly, it is impossible in the world that reflects reality to mould
The affirmative and two aspects of negative and the hesitating property fallen between of concept are pasted, Gu Chuantongmohuji is applied in engineering proposal
It is preferred that middle can cause the loss of policymaker's partial information.And the above can be overcome not by the Gau Vague collection proposed in 1993
Foot, with the stronger probabilistic ability of expression.Vague collection score function methods are one of conventional two methods, wherein
The key and core of score function Vague collection multiple attribute decision making (MADM)s, it is that Vague concentrates the assembly processing of progress fuzzy uncertain information
Direct concentration with embodying, its quality constructed directly affects the qualities of Vague collection decision-makings, or even the influence result of decision is just
It is whether true.Existing multiple scholars construct multiple score functions at present, due to reason of the policymaker to uncertain information in Vague values
Solve from realizing that angle is different so that find a score function that can rationally reflect objective fact as a Research Challenges.
In the application study of Vague score functions, existing research lays particular emphasis on the application to method, but conjunction not to evaluation result
Rationality is inquired into.Therefore Vague collection score functions multiple attributive decision making method is used for lake water systems connection project planning and built
If when, it is to these score function evaluation result analysiss of uncertainty the problem of urgent need to resolve.In addition, index weights are for synthesis
Evaluation result influence is larger, and index weights assignment method is generally divided into subjective weighting method and objective weighted model, currently used for river lake water
System's connection evaluation uses subjective weighting method, and is assessed for single index, and single index appraisal procedure is more ripe, and its deficiency is
Each evaluation index intension is more single, it is impossible to effectively reflect influencing each other between different indexs.Though subjective weighting method embodies
Policymaker can not embody the significance level of evaluation index with the time to the particular/special requirement of each index of lake water systems connectivity scheme
Roll-off characteristic；Objective weighted model can objectively reflect the data message and difference of index, but ignore the weight of policymaker's experience
The property wanted, in fact it could happen that the irrational phenomenon of weight.
The content of the invention
In order to overcome problem of the prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of lake water systems connection engineering proposal optimization model spirit
Basis of sensitivity analysis method.Described method is a kind of lake water systems connection engineering proposal optimization model sensitivity based on Vague collection
Analysis method, it is intended to solve a variety of Vague and collect score function model use to connect preferred not true of engineering proposal in lake water systems
Qualitative quantization and model reasonability select permeability.
The object of the present invention is achieved like this：A kind of lake water systems connection engineering proposal optimization model sensitivity analysis side
The step of method, methods described, is as follows：
The step of setting up index system：By literature survey, on-site inspection and assessment, according to resource-society-economy-ecology-ring
Border-engineering model, establishes index system establishment principle, builds the assessment indicator system of lake water systems connectivity scheme, and index is drawn
It is divided into qualitative index and quantitative target, and determines their numerical value；
The step of setting up Evaluation formula：Multiple subjective weighting methods and multiple objective weighted models are selected, according to probabilistic method
The weight processing that master, objective weight method to selection calculate, obtains subjective weight vectors and objective weight vector, both is synthesized
The Evaluation formula of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index is set up, and calculates the weighted value of each index, detailed process is as follows：
Lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index assigns power：Respectively from p kinds subjective weighting method and q kinds objective weighted model to river lake water
It is that connectivity scheme evaluation index assigns power, subjective weight vectors ω can be obtained1, ω2... ..., ωpWith objective weight vector ωp+1,
ωp+2... ..., ωp+q, wherein ωi=(ω1i, ω2i... ..., ωni)T；
To the weight vectors packet transaction of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index：Lake water systems connection evaluation index p is subjective
Weight vectors and q objective weight vector are sought their desired value and returned respectively as a uniformly distributed random variable sample
One changes, and respectively obtains subjective weight vectors ω '1With objective weight vector ω '2；
Based on subjective weight vectors ω '1With objective weight vector ω '2Calculate the combination of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index
Weights omega, calculation formula is as follows, ω ' in formula1With ω '1Probability be taken as a and b respectively：
A and b coefficients are by building seismic responses calculated：Object function is combining weights vector and original master, objective weight vector
Between deviation integrate it is as small as possible, such as following formula：
Above-mentioned Optimized model can be solved using MATLAB, can be with a, b and ω；
The step of determining Vague values：Qualitative index and the quantitative target property value that engineering proposal is evaluated are connected according to lake water systems
Size, and each index weights calculated, calculate the relative defects of each index, including true degree of membership, false degree of membership and not
Degree of knowing, so that it is determined that each lake water systems connects the Vague values of engineering proposal, relative defects calculation is as follows：
If lake water systems connection engineering proposal decision matrix is X={ xij, xijRepresent i-th of index attribute value of jth scheme, i
=1,2 ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ..., n.Decision matrix X is transformed to relative defects matrix μ={ μij}m×n, according to matrix
μ carrys out the support index set, neutral index set and opposition index set of definition scheme：
If μij≥λU, then i-th of index is satisfied with for j-th of scheme, or j-th of scheme supports i-th of index i=1,
2 ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ..., n；
If μij≤λL, then i-th of index is unsatisfied with for j-th of scheme, or j-th of scheme opposes i-th of index i=1,
2 ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ..., n；
If λL≤μij≤λU, then i-th of index is neutral for j-th of scheme, or j-th of scheme is not supported not oppose i-th
Index i=1,2 ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ..., n；
If the weight vectors of index are ω=(ω1, ω2... ..., ωm), connect engineering proposal for any one lake water systems
xj∈ X, the degree of requirement is met in m index to be represented with a Vague value, i.e. vj=[t (xj), 1-f (xj)], wherein,
t(xj) it is equal to scheme xjSupport index set in index respective weights sum；f(xj) it is equal to scheme xjOpposition index set in
Index respective weights sum；
The step of primary election Vague collection score function models：Engineering proposal Vague values are connected based on each lake water systems, from multiple
The evaluation of estimate of Vague collection score function model numerical procedures, is analyzed using Voting Model and Vague collection score functions modular concept
The reasonability of each score function model carrys out primary election model, rejects unreasonable model；
The step of index attribute value changing sensitivity is analyzed：In single lake water systems connectivity scheme index attribute value situation of change
Under, calculate the evaluation of estimate that lake water systems connects engineering proposal using the Vague collection score functions model of primary election；Based on cloud model,
The comprehensive evaluation value of the Vague collection score function models of initial option is generated into parameter list and cloud atlas as sample data；
Index attribute value changing sensitivity analyzes process：
It is assumed that lake water systems connection engineering proposal evaluation index r '11Possibility interval be (0, r "), index normalization after be worth
It is interval in [0,1]；.
To r '11Assign initial value r0, take r0=0.01, step-length is defined as Δ r=0.01；
Other index attribute values are constant, and calculating each lake water systems using primary election Vague collection score functions model connects engineering proposal
Comprehensive evaluation value；
Make r '11→r′11+ Δ r, " other index attribute values are constant, calculate each using primary election Vague collection score functions model for repetition
Lake water systems connects the comprehensive evaluation value of engineering proposal ", until r '11=r "；
Above step is repeated, each lake water systems connection engineering of whole interval in other Criterion Attribute value changes is counted successively
The comprehensive evaluation value of scheme；
Using each lake water systems connect engineering proposal under index attribute value situation of change gained comprehensive evaluation value as sample data,
The cloud model E that each lake water systems connects engineering proposal is obtained by reverse cloudx, En, He, then generate cloud atlas；
The step of index weightses changing sensitivity is analyzed：In the weighted value simultaneously under situation of change of multiple indexs, primary election is utilized
Vague collection score functions model calculate lake water systems connect engineering proposal evaluation of estimate；Based on cloud model, by primary election
The comprehensive evaluation value of Vague collection score function models is used as sample data, generation parameter list and cloud atlas；Multiple weights change simultaneously
Sensitivity analysis detailed process is as follows：
To ω1Assign initial value ω0, take ω0=0.01；
1 group of random weights omega is generated with computer2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωy, weight sum is met for 1- ω0, form 1
The random weight set W of group1={ ω0, ω2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωy}；
According to random weight set derived above, calculate each lake water systems using primary election Vague collection score functions model and connect
The comprehensive evaluation value of engineering proposal；
Change ω1=ω1+ω0, then repeat " to generate 1 group of random weights omega with computer above2, ω3... ..., ωj... ...,
ωy, weight sum is met for 1- ω0, form 1 group of random weight set W1={ ω0, ω2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωy}”
To " according to random weight set derived above, utilizing primary election Vague collection score functions model to calculate each lake water systems connection work
The comprehensive evaluation value of journey scheme ", until ω1=1, you can obtain each lake water systems connection comprehensive evaluation of engineering schemes value matrix collection
Close；
ω is analyzed respectively2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωySensitivity；
According to ω1, ω2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωyEach lake water systems connection comprehensive evaluation of engineering schemes value, made
Parameter list and cloud atlas are generated for the sample data of cloud model；
The step of choosing preferred plan：Contrast different Vague collection score functions and the engineering proposal result of decision is connected to lake water systems
Robustness, optimal Vague collection score functions of trade-off decision result robustness, and the optimal Vague collection of robustness is scored
The evaluation result of function is used as final result.
The beneficial effect comprise that：The present invention is combined to subjective, objective weighted model, is weighed based on combining weights with former
Deviation small thought as far as possible, asks for the Combining weights of indices, so preferably takes into account subjective weighting method and visitor between weight
The advantage of enabling legislation is seen, obtained combining weights more meet actual demand.In addition, the importance for different evaluation index of giving prominence to the key points
Degree and the influence to overall evaluation result, reflect influencing each other and acting between each index again, it is to avoid by each index it
Between isolate, with preferable evaluation result.Based on cloud model to Vague collection score function models in each index attribute value and weight
The uncertainty and the robust analysis of ambiguity making policy decision result of value, are objective evaluation difference Vague collection score function models
Quality new reference frame is provided, and then contribute to policymaker to select suitable Vague collection score function model to draw most preferably
Decision scheme, be lake water systems connection engineering proposal it is preferred provide more comprehensively, the decision support of science, the present invention is to actual river
Lake water system connection engineering proposal is preferably and evaluation has practical value, and can be used in Vague collection similarity model and scoring letter
The evaluation of exponential model and preferably.
Brief description of the drawings
The invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the methods described of embodiments of the invention one；
Fig. 2 is each scheme Normal Cloud of the lower Chen-Tan formula calculating of index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Distribution map；
Fig. 3 is each scheme normal state of the lower Hong-Choi formula calculating of index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Cloud distribution map；
Fig. 4 is the lower each scheme Normal Cloud point of Xuchang woods formula calculating of index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Butut；
Fig. 5 is each scheme Normal Cloud distribution of the lower Li Peng's formula calculating of index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Figure；
Fig. 6 is high under index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one to build big formula and calculate each scheme Normal Cloud point
Butut；
Fig. 7 is the lower each scheme Normal Cloud point of army's formula calculating of king ten thousand of index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Butut；
Fig. 8 is the lower each scheme Normal Cloud point of Peng's exhibition sound formula calculating of index attribute value change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Butut；
Fig. 9 is each scheme Normal Cloud of the lower Chen-Tan formula calculating of index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Distribution map；
Figure 10 is each scheme normal state of the lower Hong-Choi formula calculating of index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Cloud distribution map；
Figure 11 is each scheme Normal Cloud of the lower Xuchang woods formula calculating of index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Distribution map；
Figure 12 is the lower each scheme Normal Cloud point of Li Peng's formula calculating of index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Butut；
Figure 13 is high under index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one to build big formula and calculate each scheme Normal Cloud
Distribution map；
Figure 14 is the lower each scheme Normal Cloud of army's formula calculating of king ten thousand of index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Distribution map；
Figure 15 is each scheme Normal Cloud of the lower Peng's exhibition sound formula calculating of index weightses change in example described in the embodiment of the present invention one
Distribution map.
Embodiment
Embodiment one：
The present embodiment is a kind of lake water systems connection engineering proposal optimization model Sensitivity Analysis Method, and flow is as shown in Figure 1.This
The step of embodiment methods described, is as follows：
(1) the step of setting up index system：By literature survey, on-site inspection and assessment, according to resource-society-economy-life
State-environment-engineering model, establishes index system establishment principle, builds the assessment indicator system of lake water systems connectivity scheme, will refer to
Mark is divided into qualitative index and quantitative target, and determines their numerical value.
The present embodiment connects engineering as applicating example using certain lake water systems.The connection engineering has 3 schemes P1, P2 and P3,
The present embodiment is illustrated below in conjunction with the application example.
In view of in lake water systems connection engineering proposal optimizing evaluation, in order to it is correct reflect resource, society, economy, ecology,
The complex internal contact of environment, resource and engineering technology, and the principle of assessment indicator system setting is followed, can using for reference water resource
Sustainable exploitation utilization, reasonable allocation of water resources, water resource can on the basis of the index system such as bearing capacity, shortage degree of water resources,
Using resource-society-economy-ecology-environment-engineering as model, the actual conditions of engineering are connected with reference to lake water systems, certain river is set up
Lake water system connects the preferred System of Comprehensive Evaluation of engineering proposal, and agriculture products are qualitative or quantitative.
In embodiment, assessment indicator system is set up, three layers of index are set altogether, and according to the calculation of index attribute value,
Qualitative and quantitative target is set to, as shown in table 1.
The comprehensive evaluation index of table 1
(2) the step of setting up Evaluation formula：Multiple subjective weighting methods and multiple objective weighted models are selected, according to probability
Statistical method is handled the master of selection, the weight of objective weight method calculating, obtains subjective weight vectors and objective weight vector, will
Both set up the Evaluation formula of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index at synthesis, and calculate the weighted value of each index.
If the inspection target number of comprehensive assessment is n, the Evaluation formula of proposition uses p kinds subjective weighting method and q first
Plant objective weighted model and tax power carried out to indices respectively, master, objective weight vectors component other places are managed based on probabilistic method,
Obtain subjective weight vectors ω '1With objective weight vector ω '2, then synthesize two vectors and obtain final combining weights ω.Specific mistake
Journey is as follows：
(1) lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index assigns power.Respectively from p kinds subjective weighting method and q kind objective weighted models to river
Lake water system connectivity scheme evaluation index assigns power, can obtain subjective weight vectors ω1, ω2... ... ..., ωpAnd objective weight
Vectorial ωp+1, ωp+2... ... ..., ωp+q, wherein ωi=(ω1i, ω2i... ... ..., ωni)T。
(2) to the weight vectors packet transaction of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index.Lake water systems connection evaluation index p
Individual subjective weight vectors and q objective weight vector ask their expectation respectively as a uniformly distributed random variable sample
It is worth and normalizes, respectively obtains subjective weight vectors ω '1With objective weight vector ω '2。
(3) based on subjective weight vectors ω '1With objective weight vector ω '2Calculate lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index
Combining weights ω, calculation formula such as formula (1), ω ' in formula1With ω '1Probability be taken as a and b respectively.
A and b coefficients are by building seismic responses calculated.Object function is combining weights vector and original master, objective weight vector
Between deviation integrate it is as small as possible, such as formula (2)：
Above-mentioned Optimized model can be solved using MATLAB, can be with a, b and ω.
Subjective weighting method can select a variety of subjectivities such as analytic hierarchy process (AHP), scoring, mood operator comparison method, superiority chart
Enabling legislation.Objective weighted model can select the objective weighted models such as entropy assessment, VC Method.
It is comprehensive consideration subjective information and objective information in example, first layer, second layer index weights use mood operator
Comparison method determines that third layer index is determined using Evaluation formula.
Following index weights table can be obtained accordingly, be shown in Table 2.
The index weights table of table 2
(3) the step of determining Vague values：Qualitative index and the quantitative target category that engineering proposal is evaluated are connected according to lake water systems
Property value size, and each index weights calculated calculate the relative defects of each index, including true degree of membership (support),
False degree of membership (opposition degree) and unknown degree, so that it is determined that each lake water systems connects the Vague values of engineering proposal.
Relative defects computational methods are as follows：
If lake water systems connection engineering proposal decision matrix is X={ xij, xijRepresent i-th of index attribute value of jth scheme, i
=1,2 ... ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ... ..., n.Decision matrix X is transformed to relative defects matrix μ={ μij}m×n,
According to matrix μ is come the support index set of definition scheme, neutral index set and opposes index set：
(1) if μij≥λU(the receptible satisfaction lower bound of policymaker), then i-th of index is satisfied with for j-th of scheme, Huo Cheng
J scheme supports i-th index (i=1,2 ... ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ... ..., n)；
(2) if μij≤λL(the receptible satisfaction upper bound of policymaker), then i-th of index is dissatisfied for j-th of scheme, or
J-th of scheme opposes i-th index (i=1,2 ... ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ... ..., n)；
(3) if λL≤μij≤λU, then i-th of index is neutral for j-th of scheme, or j-th of scheme is not supported not oppose i-th
Individual index (i=1,2 ... ... ..., m；J=1,2 ... ... ..., n)；
If the weight vectors of index are ω=(ω1, ω2... ... ..., ωm), connect engineering for any one lake water systems
Scheme xj∈ X, it met in m index policymaker requirement degree can be represented with a Vague value, i.e. vj=[t (xj), 1-
f(xj)], wherein, t (xj) it is equal to scheme xjSupport index set in index respective weights sum；f(xj) it is equal to scheme xjIt is anti-
To the index respective weights sum in index set.
λLAnd λUValue 0.5 and 0.75, can obtain the Vague values of three schemes, as shown in table 3 respectively.
The Vague values that the different schemes of table 3 are calculated
(4) the step of primary election Vague collection score function model：Engineering proposal Vague values are connected based on each lake water systems,
From the evaluation of estimate of multiple Vague collection score function model numerical procedures, Voting Model and Vague collection score function models are utilized
The reasonability of each score function model of principle analysis carrys out primary election model, rejects unreasonable model.
Vague collection score function models be totally divided into based on it is true and false be subordinate to absolute distance and relative mistake away from two kinds.
Representative score function is selected at this to analyze their applicabilities in lake water systems connects engineering proposal.Below
In formulaIt is by support option AiEvidence derived degree of membership certainly lower bound,It is then by opposing AiEvidence led
The lower bound of the negative degree of membership gone out,For on option AiUncertainty, it is equal to
(1) Chen and Tan formula：
(2) Hong and Choi formula：
(3) Liu Huawen formula：
(4) Liu and Wang formula：
(5) Zhou Xiaoguang formula：
(6) Xuchang woods formula：
(7) Zhang Enyu formula：
(8) Li Peng's formula：
(9) the army's formula of king ten thousand：
(10) height builds big formula：
(11) Peng's exhibition sound formula：
(12) Wang Weiping formula：
Defined according to score function, score function value is bigger, illustrate the more suitable policymaker's demand of engineering proposal, therefore can basis
Score function value preferred scheme or sequence, select optimal case.
According to above-mentioned score function, corresponding score function value can be obtained, as shown in table 4.
The different schemes of table 4 difference score function value and schemes ranking
In terms of total result of calculation, the sequence that Liu Huawen formula, Liu-Wang formula, Zhang Enyu formula, Wang Weiping formula are drawn
For P2 ＞ P3 ＞ P1.The P2 and P3 score value that wherein Liu Huawen formula and Zhang Enyu formula are calculated are close to equal；Liu-Wang
The P2 score values that formula and Wang Weiping formula are calculated are higher than P3 score values.P1 score values are less than P2 and P3 score values.
The Vague values of different schemes are analyzed according to Voting Model, it is assumed that voter turnout is 100 people, to scheme rating sheet state
It is divided into support, opposes and three kinds of situations of abstention, then the support number that can obtain P1 is 53 people, and opposition number is 21 people, is abandoned
Power number is 26 people；P2 supports number to be 67 people, and opposition number is 16 people, and abstention number is 17 people；P3 supports number to be 75 people,
Opposition number is 20 people, and abstention number is 5 people.
From the point of view of analyzing successively, Liu Huawen formula, Liu-Wang formula, Zhang Enyu formula result of calculations show, P3 backers
Number is more than P2, then score value is higher than the latter, and score value result of calculation is on the contrary.Main cause is that these three are public
Formula priority has refined the abstention part of Vague collection, it is proposed that based on true and false degree of membership relative mistake away from score function method, it is but this
Method actually exaggerates influence of the unknown message to the result of decision, primary concern is that influence of the opinion to policymaker is supported,
Influence of the opposing views to decision-making results is ignored, is a kind of more optimistic decision-making technique, can also be disobeyed in some cases
The result that people's intuition judges is carried on the back, has shown that P2 is better than P3 irrational judgement.Therefore engineering is being connected for lake water systems
When scheme optimization and sequence, it should not use.
The reason for Wang Weiping formula draws the result of calculation of counterintuitive is that the formula scoring function is according in policymaker
Vertical, detest constructs a kind of scoring function of segmentation with pursuing phychology, although this method can preferably reflect the preference of policymaker
Phychology, but the scoring function easily causes information preference extramalization in information decision, i.e., when supporting evidence is dominant, use
Unascertained rational whole radical supporting evidence when pursuing phychology decision-making；When opposing that evidence is dominant, using detest phychology decision-making
When, unascertained rational all follows opposition evidence, is irrational in theory.
Although Zhou Xiaoguang formula has shown that schemes ranking is：P3 ＞ P2 ＞ P1, but the score value of three schemes is respectively
0.932nd, 0.972 and 0.998, closely, the resolution ratio to schemes ranking is not high for numerical value.It is non-certainty degree to analyze reason
Higher, the value influence on result of calculation is bigger, so as to exaggerate the influence of unascertained information or part of waiving the right.
From the point of view of Voting Model binding analysis, Chen-Tan formula, Hong-Choi formula, Xuchang woods formula, Li Penggong
Formula, the army's formula of king ten thousand, height build big formula, Peng's exhibition sound formula obtain a result it is relatively reasonable.The Chen-Tan formula in above-mentioned formula
True, false degree of membership is only only accounted for Hong-Choi formula, the starting point of Chen-Tan formula is that true person in servitude's degree has than false degree of membership
There are more advantages, more meet the requirement of policymaker；It is that Given information is more that Hong-Choi formula, which obtain starting point, more meets and determines
The requirement of plan person, the two formula can not handle the situation of identical score value, and have ignored influence of the unknown message to decision-making.
(5) the step of index attribute value changing sensitivity is analyzed：Become in single lake water systems connectivity scheme index attribute value
In the case of change, the evaluation of estimate that lake water systems connects engineering proposal is calculated using the Vague collection score functions model of primary election；Based on cloud
Model, parameter list and cloud are generated using the comprehensive evaluation value of the Vague collection score function models of initial option as sample data
Figure.
Index attribute value changing sensitivity is analyzed：
Index attribute value sensitivity analysis is only to consider a lake water systems connection engineering proposal evaluation index property value every time
Change, other evaluation index property values keep constant, count each schemes ranking situation of change, it is determined that keeping optimal case constant
Interval.Cloud models theory analysis single index sensitivity analysis is introduced, detailed process is as follows：
(1) lake water systems connection engineering proposal evaluation index r ' is assumed11Possibility interval be (0, r "), index normalization
What is be worth afterwards is interval in [0,1].
(2) r ' is given11Assign initial value r0, typically take r0=0.01, step-length is defined as Δ r=0.01.
(3) other index attribute values are constant, and calculating each lake water systems using primary election Vague collection score functions model connects work
The comprehensive evaluation value of journey scheme.
(4) r ' is made11→r′11+ Δ r, repeat step (3), until r '11=r ".
(5) above step is repeated, each lake water systems of whole interval in other Criterion Attribute value changes is counted successively
Connect the comprehensive evaluation value of engineering proposal.
(6) comprehensive evaluation value of engineering proposal gained under index attribute value situation of change is connected as sample using each lake water systems
Notebook data, the cloud model (E that each lake water systems connects engineering proposal is obtained by reverse cloudx, En, He), then generate cloud atlas.
Engineering proposal is connected for tri- kinds of water systems of P1, P2 and P3, in engineering proposal decision index system property value normalized base
On, the possible span of all indexs is set as 0.01~1.0.To cause P1, P2 and P3 scheme under different score function methods
Obtained result of decision robustness is more directly perceived, respectively under 7 kinds of score function comprehensive evaluations, the scheme under being changed with index
Comprehensive evaluation value is sample data, passes through reverse cloud and the cloud model (E of each scheme of positive cloud computingx, En, He), as a result such as table 5
Shown, the normal state cloud atlas of generation is shown in Fig. 2~Fig. 8.
Each scheme cloud model of different formulas integrated evaluating method under the index value changes of table 5
(6) the step of index weightses changing sensitivity is analyzed：In the weighted value simultaneously under situation of change of multiple indexs,
The evaluation of estimate that lake water systems connects engineering proposal is calculated using the Vague collection score functions model of primary election., will be just based on cloud model
The comprehensive evaluation value of the Vague collection score function models of choosing generates parameter list and cloud atlas as sample data.
Index weightses changing sensitivity analysis simultaneously is comprised the following steps that：
(1) ω is given1Assign initial value ω0, typically take ω0=0.01.
(2) 1 group of random weights omega is generated with computer2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωy, weight sum is met for 1-
ω0, form 1 group of random weight set W1={ ω0, ω2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωy}。
(3) according to random weight set derived above, each river lake water is calculated using primary election Vague collection score functions model
The comprehensive evaluation value of system's connection engineering proposal.
(4) ω is changed1=ω1+ω0, then repeatedly above step (2)~(3), until ω1=1, you can obtain each river lake
Water system connects comprehensive evaluation of engineering schemes value matrix set.
(5) similarly, ω is analyzed respectively2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωySensitivity.
(6) according to ω1, ω2, ω3... ..., ωj... ..., ωyEach lake water systems connection comprehensive evaluation of engineering schemes value,
Parameter list and cloud atlas are generated as the sample data of cloud model.
When analyzing index weightses changing sensitivity, it is assumed that the index attribute value of each scheme keeps constant, to Chen-
Tan formula, Hong-Choi formula, Xuchang woods formula, Li Peng's formula, height build big formula, the army's formula of king ten thousand, Peng's exhibition sound formula etc.
The result of decision is analyzed, and all comprehensive evaluation values using lower 3 schemes of weight change obtain different scoring letters as sample respectively
Several cloud models, its parameter as shown in table 6, is distributed as shown in Fig. 9~Figure 15.
Each scheme cloud model of different formulas integrated evaluating method under the weight value changes of table 6
(7) the step of choosing preferred plan：Contrast different Vague collection score functions and engineering proposal is connected to lake water systems
The robustness of the result of decision, the optimal Vague collection score functions of trade-off decision result robustness, and robustness is optimal
The evaluation result of Vague collection score functions is used as final result.
Using cloud model parameter and cloud atlas can in terms of following two analysis project program decisions result sensitivity：
(1) the stable feelings of the sequence under certain Vague collection score function comprehensive evaluation between each alternative engineering proposal of across comparison
Condition, first according to the expectation E of schemexSize sorts, and it is expected that bigger stability is better；If expecting ExIt is identical, then entropy EnIt is smaller (i.e.
Stability is better) Ranking Stability is better, if expecting ExWith entropy EnIt is all identical, then super entropy HeSmaller (i.e. randomness is smaller) sorts
Stability is better.
(2) when being difficult to determine the robustness of certain score function using above-mentioned lateral comparison, so it is longitudinally right according to cloud atlas
Than the stable case of the result of decision between each Vague collection score function comprehensive evaluation, if the cloud of optimal case is distributed and other
Scheme is overlapping fewer, and the result of decision robustness that this method is obtained is better.
The sensitivity analysis of Criterion Attribute value changes is as follows：
As can be seen from Table 6：Under each index change conditions, 1) according to Chen-Tang formula, Hong-Choi formula, Li Peng's formula
With Peng's exhibition sound formula calculate comprehensive evaluation value result, P3 schemes desirably up to, P2 schemes are taken second place, P1 schemes expect it is minimum, three
Individual scheme entropy and super entropy are more or less the same, and this illustrates 3 each self-sustainings of scheme, and it expects that stable case is similar；2) according to Xuchang woods
Formula calculates comprehensive evaluation value interpretation of result, and the expecting desirably up to, P2 and P3 schemes of P3 schemes is more or less the same, the expectation of P1 schemes
Minimum, P3 and P1 schemes entropy and super entropy are more or less the same, and this illustrates that this 2 kinds of schemes keep it to expect stable case almost, P2 side
The entropy of case and super entropy are far below other 2 kinds of schemes, illustrate that P2 schemes keep it is expected that stable margin is more preferable；3) according to Gao Jianwei
Formula result of calculation analyze, P3 schemes desirably up to, P2 schemes are taken second place, P1 schemes expect it is minimum, the entropy of P1 and P2 schemes is close,
P3 scheme entropys are slightly higher, and this explanation P1 and P2 scheme maintains it is expected that the value ratio P3 of stability is high, and 3 kinds of super entropys of scheme are close, illustrate with
Machine is similar；4) analyzed according to the armies formula result of calculation of king ten thousand, P2 schemes desirably up to, P1 and P3 scheme desired values are close,
P2 and P3 schemes entropy and super entropy are more or less the same, and illustrate that both maintain desired stable similar temperament, P1 schemes entropy and super entropy are higher than it
His 2 kinds of schemes, illustrate P1 scheme less stables.
For analysis result more directly perceived, the cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation value of distinct methods calculating is distributed such as Fig. 2~Fig. 8 institutes
Show.It can be seen that from 7 cloud atlas：
1) 5 formula such as big formula are built according to Chen-Tang formula, Hong-Choi formula, Li Peng's formula, Peng's exhibition sound formula, height
Evaluated, 3 kinds of schemes each maintain it to expect stability almost, and the comprehensive evaluation value of P1 schemes and P3 schemes does not almost have
Lap, illustrates that the sequence of P1 schemes and P3 schemes is stable, P3 schemes are relatively good better than the robustness of P1 schemes, P2 schemes with
P1 schemes, the comprehensive evaluation value of P3 schemes have certain overlapping, P2 schemes and P3 wherein in Hong-Choi formula result of calculation
Lap is less than lap with P1 schemes, and Li Peng's formula result of calculation P2 schemes and P1 lap are less than and P3 side
The lap of case, its excess-three formula result of calculation P2 scheme and P1, P3 scheme overlap proportion are almost equal, but Chen-Tan
The lap of formula builds big formula and Peng's exhibition sound formula more than height.
2) comprehensive evaluation result calculated according to Xuchang woods formula is analyzed, and P2 schemes and P1, P3 scheme almost all are overlapping, P1
Scheme and P3 scheme laps are more, and this explanation P1 scheme, P2 schemes and P3 schemes rankings are unstable, easily change；
The comprehensive evaluation result analysis calculated according to the army's formula of king ten thousand, P2, P3 scheme and P1 schemes are completely overlapped, P2 schemes and P3 schemes
It is almost completely overlapped, this also illustrates 3 kinds of schemes rankings are unstable, easily change.
Weight Sensitive Analysis is as follows：
From table 7 and Fig. 9~Figure 15 interpretations of result, under index weightses situation of change,
1) from the point of view of Chen-Tan formula, the expectation of P3 schemes is slightly above P2 schemes, and the expectation of P2 and P3 schemes is far above P1 schemes,
The entropy of P3 schemes and P2 schemes is less than P1 schemes, illustrate that P3 schemes and P2 schemes stability are higher than P1 schemes, but P2 schemes with
The super entropy of P3 schemes is less than P1, illustrates that the randomness of this 2 kinds of schemes is larger, from cloud atlas it can be seen that three scheme cross-lapping departments
Divide larger, therefore the sequence less stable of 3 schemes；
2) from the point of view of Hong-Choi formula, P3 schemes are expected to take second place desirably up to, P2 schemes, P1 schemes expect it is minimum, from entropy and
Super entropy analysis, the stability robustness of P3 schemes is higher than P1 schemes and P2 schemes, finds out that the lap of 3 schemes is big from cloud atlas, and 3
The sequence of individual scheme is not particularly stable；
3) analyzed according to the comprehensive evaluation result of Xuchang woods formula, Li Peng's formula analysis, the army's formula of king ten thousand, P2 schemes and P3 schemes
Expect to approach, entropy and super entropy are also very close to, the expectations of P1 schemes is far below P2 schemes and P3 schemes, entropy higher than P2 schemes and
P3 schemes, illustrate that P1 scheme unstability is stronger, and because sample canonical difference is less than entropy, it is plural number to cause super entropy, illustrates it
Randomness less, finds out that P2 schemes and P3 scheme laps are more, both sort unstable from cloud atlas；
4) from the point of view of height builds big formula and Peng's exhibition sound formula, the expectation of P3 schemes and P2 schemes is far above expectation P1, P2 and P3 side
The entropy of case is less than P1 schemes, illustrates that P2 schemes and P3 schemes are more stable than P1 scheme, the super entropys of P1 are less than P2 and P3 schemes, illustrate the P1 phases
Hope relatively stable, from cloud atlas as can be seen that P2 and P3 scheme laps are more, illustrate that P2 and P3 schemes rankings are unstable, P1
Scheme is overlapping with P2, P3 scheme less.
Finally it should be noted that being merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention and unrestricted above, although with reference to preferable cloth
Scheme is put the present invention is described in detail, it will be understood by those within the art that, can be to technology of the invention
Scheme (the selecting of such as model, the utilization of various formula, sequencing of step etc.) is modified or equivalent substitution, without
Depart from the spirit and scope of technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of lake water systems connects engineering proposal optimization model Sensitivity Analysis Method, it is characterised in that the step of methods described
It is rapid as follows：
The step of setting up index system：By literature survey, on-site inspection and assessment, according to resource-society-economy-ecology-ring
Border-engineering model, establishes index system establishment principle, builds the assessment indicator system of lake water systems connectivity scheme, and index is drawn
It is divided into qualitative index and quantitative target, and determines their numerical value；
The step of setting up Evaluation formula：Multiple subjective weighting methods and multiple objective weighted models are selected, according to probabilistic method
The weight processing that master, objective weight method to selection calculate, obtains subjective weight vectors and objective weight vector, both is synthesized
The Evaluation formula of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index is set up, and calculates the weighted value of each index, detailed process is as follows：
Lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index assigns power：Select respectivelypKind of subjective weighting method andqObjective weighted model is planted to river lake water
It is that connectivity scheme evaluation index assigns power, subjective weight vectors can be obtainedω 1,ω 2... ...,ω p With objective weight vectorω p+1,ω p+2... ...,ω p+q , whereinω i =(ω 1i ,ω 2i ... ...,ω ni )T；
To the weight vectors packet transaction of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation index：Lake water systems connects evaluation indexpIndividual subjectivity
Weight vectors andqIndividual objective weight vector is sought their desired value and returned respectively as a uniformly distributed random variable sample
One changes, and respectively obtains subjective weight vectorsWith objective weight vector；
Based on subjective weight vectorsWith objective weight vectorCalculate the combining weights of lake water systems connectivity scheme evaluation indexω, calculation formula is as follows, in formulaWithProbability be taken as respectivelyaWithb：
aWithbCoefficient is by building seismic responses calculated：Object function is combining weights vector and original master, objective weight vector
Between deviation integrate it is as small as possible, such as following formula：
Above-mentioned Optimized model can be solved using MATLAB, can be witha、bAnd ω；
The step of determining Vague values：Qualitative index and the quantitative target property value that engineering proposal is evaluated are connected according to lake water systems
Size, and each index weights calculated, calculate the relative defects of each index, including true degree of membership, false degree of membership and not
Degree of knowing, so that it is determined that each lake water systems connects the Vague values of engineering proposal, relative defects calculation is as follows：
If lake water systems connection engineering proposal decision matrix isX={x ij ,x ij Represent thejThe of schemeiIndividual index attribute value,i=
1,2 ... ...,m；j=1,2 ... ...,n；
By decision matrixXIt is transformed to relative defects matrixμ={μ ij } m×n , according to matrixμCome definition scheme support index set,
Neutral index set and opposition index set：
Ifμ ij ≥λ U , theniIndividual index is forjIndividual scheme satisfaction, Huo ChengjIndividual scheme supports theiIndividual indexi=1,2,
...,m；j=1,2 ... ...,n；
Ifμ ij ≤λ L , theniIndividual index is forjIndividual scheme is unsatisfied with, Huo ChengjIndividual scheme opposes theiIndividual indexi=1,2,
...,m；j=1,2 ... ...,n；
Ifλ L ≤μ ij ≤λ U , theniIndividual index is forjIndividual scheme is neutral, Huo ChengjIndividual scheme is not supported not opposingiIt is individual to refer to
Marki=1,2 ... ...,m；j=1,2 ... ...,n；
If the weight vectors of index are ω=(ω1, ω2... ..., ω m ), connect engineering proposal for any one lake water systemsx j
∈X,mThe degree of requirement is met in individual index to be represented with a Vague value, i.e.,v j =[t(x j ), 1-f(x j )], wherein,t
(x j ) it is equal to schemex j Support index set in index respective weights sum；f(x j ) it is equal to schemex j Opposition index set in
Index respective weights sum；
The step of primary election Vague collection score function models：Engineering proposal Vague values are connected based on each lake water systems, from multiple
The evaluation of estimate of Vague collection score function model numerical procedures, is analyzed using Voting Model and Vague collection score functions modular concept
The reasonability of each score function model carrys out primary election model, rejects unreasonable model；
The step of index attribute value changing sensitivity is analyzed：In single lake water systems connectivity scheme index attribute value situation of change
Under, calculate the evaluation of estimate that lake water systems connects engineering proposal using the Vague collection score functions model of primary election；Based on cloud model,
The comprehensive evaluation value of the Vague collection score function models of initial option is generated into parameter list and cloud atlas as sample data；
Index attribute value changing sensitivity analyzes process：
It is assumed that lake water systems connects engineering proposal evaluation indexPossibility interval for (0,r"), is worth after index normalization
It is interval interior in [0,1]；
GiveAssign initial valuer 0, taker 0=0.01, step-length is defined as Δr=0.01；
Other index attribute values are constant, and calculating each lake water systems using primary election Vague collection score functions model connects engineering proposal
Comprehensive evaluation value；
Order, " other index attribute values are constant, utilize primary election Vague collection score functions model to calculate each river lake for repetition
Water system connects the comprehensive evaluation value of engineering proposal ", until；
Above step is repeated, each lake water systems connection engineering of whole interval in other Criterion Attribute value changes is counted successively
The comprehensive evaluation value of scheme；
Using each lake water systems connect engineering proposal under index attribute value situation of change gained comprehensive evaluation value as sample data,
The cloud model that each lake water systems connects engineering proposal is obtained by reverse cloudE x ,E n ,H e , then generate cloud atlas；
The step of index weightses sensitivity analysis：In the weighted value simultaneously under situation of change of multiple indexs, primary election is utilized
Vague collection score functions model calculates the evaluation of estimate that lake water systems connects engineering proposal；Based on cloud model, by the Vague of primary election
Collect the comprehensive evaluation value of score function model as sample data, generation parameter list and cloud atlas；Multiple weights change sensitive simultaneously
Degree analysis detailed process is as follows：
Giveω 1Assign initial valueω 0, takeω 0=0.01；
1 group of random weight is generated with computerω 2,ω 3... ...,ω j ... ...,ω y , meet weight sum for 1-ω 0, form 1
The random weight set of groupW 1=ω 0,ω 2,ω 3... ...,ω j ... ...,ω y }；
According to random weight set derived above, calculate each lake water systems using primary election Vague collection score functions model and connect
The comprehensive evaluation value of engineering proposal；
Changeω 1=ω 1+ω 0, then repeat " to generate 1 group of random weight with computer aboveω 2,ω 3... ...,ω j ... ...,ω y , meet weight sum for 1-ω 0, form 1 group of random weight setW 1=ω 0,ω 2,ω 3... ...,ω j ... ...,ω y "
To " according to random weight set derived above, utilizing primary election Vague collection score functions model to calculate each lake water systems connection work
The comprehensive evaluation value of journey scheme ", untilω 1=1, you can obtain each lake water systems connection comprehensive evaluation of engineering schemes value matrix collection
Close；
Analyze respectivelyω 2,ω 3... ...,ω j ... ...,ω y Sensitivity；
According toω 1,ω 2,ω 3... ...,ω j ... ...,ω y Each lake water systems connection comprehensive evaluation of engineering schemes value, made
Parameter list and cloud atlas are generated for the sample data of cloud model；
The step of choosing preferred plan：Contrast different Vague collection score functions and the engineering proposal result of decision is connected to lake water systems
Robustness, optimal Vague collection score functions of trade-off decision result robustness, and the optimal Vague collection of robustness is scored
The evaluation result of function is used as final result.
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