CN116070728B - Photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method, equipment, system and medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明提供了一种光伏发电系统发电量预测方法、设备、系统及介质，首先获取目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值；然后获取目标发电集群的卫星云图，并根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量；最终根据辐射变化量对初始发电数据进行修正，得到目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。通过将参考发电站的光伏功率预测值作为集群内所有发电站的预测值，能够实现以较小计算量实现大量发电站的光伏功率预测，然后再根据卫星云图对各个电站的预测值进行修正，保证每个发电站的预测准确性，因此本发明能够在保证预测准确性的基础上，有效提高大量光伏电站的光伏功率的预测效率。
The present invention provides a method, device, system and medium for predicting the power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system. First, the initial prediction value of a reference power station in a target period is obtained; then a satellite cloud map of a target power generation cluster is obtained, and according to the satellite cloud map, the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster in the target period is determined; finally, the initial power generation data is corrected according to the radiation change to obtain the final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster. By using the photovoltaic power prediction value of the reference power station as the prediction value of all power stations in the cluster, the photovoltaic power prediction of a large number of power stations can be achieved with a small amount of calculation, and then the prediction value of each power station is corrected according to the satellite cloud map to ensure the prediction accuracy of each power station. Therefore, the present invention can effectively improve the prediction efficiency of photovoltaic power of a large number of photovoltaic power stations on the basis of ensuring the prediction accuracy.
Description
技术领域Technical Field
本发明属于光伏发电技术领域，尤其涉及一种光伏发电系统发电量预测方法、设备、系统及介质。The present invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, and in particular relates to a method, device, system and medium for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system.
背景技术Background technique
光伏发电系统是利用太阳能电池直接将太阳能转换成电能的发电系统。由于分布式光伏发电系统的自发自用、余量上网的运行方式，其出力的随机性和波动性对其所接入的配电网影响很大，因此需要对分布式光伏发电系统的发电进行预测，保证配电网的稳定运行。Photovoltaic power generation system is a power generation system that uses solar cells to directly convert solar energy into electrical energy. Due to the self-use and surplus power access to the grid operation mode of distributed photovoltaic power generation system, the randomness and volatility of its output have a great impact on the distribution network it is connected to. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the power generation of distributed photovoltaic power generation system to ensure the stable operation of the distribution network.
目前大部分功率预测方法都是针对光伏单站的光伏功率预测，在对大量光伏发电站进行发电预测时，通常是采用单站预测的方法依次对各发电站进行预测，需要占用大量的计算资源，且预测速度较慢，因此现有技术中的光伏功率预测方法对大量光伏发电站的发电预测效率较低。At present, most power prediction methods are aimed at photovoltaic power prediction of a single photovoltaic station. When predicting power generation of a large number of photovoltaic power stations, a single-station prediction method is usually used to predict each power station in turn, which requires a large amount of computing resources and has a slow prediction speed. Therefore, the photovoltaic power prediction method in the prior art has low efficiency in predicting power generation of a large number of photovoltaic power stations.
发明内容Summary of the invention
有鉴于此，本发明提供了一种光伏发电系统发电量预测方法、设备、系统及介质，旨在解决现有技术对大量光伏发电站的发电预测效率较低的问题。In view of this, the present invention provides a method, device, system and medium for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system, aiming to solve the problem of low power generation prediction efficiency of a large number of photovoltaic power stations in the prior art.
本发明实施例的第一方面提供了一种光伏发电系统发电量预测方法，光伏发电系统根据光伏出力一致性预先划分为多个发电集群，每个发电集群包括多个发电站，该方法包括：A first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system, wherein the photovoltaic power generation system is pre-divided into a plurality of power generation clusters according to the consistency of photovoltaic output, and each power generation cluster includes a plurality of power stations. The method includes:
获取目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值；其中，参考发电站为目标发电集群的多个发电站中任一发电站；目标发电集群为任一发电集群；初始预测值为根据目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据预测得到的发电数据；Obtaining an initial prediction value of a reference power station within a target period; wherein the reference power station is any power station among multiple power stations of a target power generation cluster; the target power generation cluster is any power generation cluster; the initial prediction value is power generation data predicted based on meteorological data of the reference power station within the target period;
获取目标发电集群的卫星云图，并根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量；Obtain a satellite cloud image of the target power generation cluster, and determine the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster during the target period based on the satellite cloud image;
根据辐射变化量对初始预测值进行修正，得到目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。The initial prediction value is corrected according to the radiation change to obtain the final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster.
本发明实施例的第二方面提供了一种光伏发电系统发电量预测装置，光伏发电系统根据光伏出力一致性预先划分为多个发电集群，每个发电集群包括多个发电站，该装置包括：A second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device, wherein the photovoltaic power generation system is pre-divided into a plurality of power generation clusters according to the photovoltaic output consistency, and each power generation cluster includes a plurality of power stations. The device includes:
获取模块，用于获取目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值；其中，参考发电站为目标发电集群的多个发电站中任一发电站；目标发电集群为任一发电集群；初始预测值为根据目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据预测得到的发电数据；An acquisition module is used to acquire an initial prediction value of a reference power station within a target period; wherein the reference power station is any power station among multiple power stations of a target power generation cluster; the target power generation cluster is any power generation cluster; and the initial prediction value is power generation data predicted based on meteorological data of the reference power station within the target period;
确定模块，用于获取目标发电集群的卫星云图，并根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量；A determination module is used to obtain a satellite cloud image of a target power generation cluster and determine the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster within a target period based on the satellite cloud image;
修正模块，用于根据辐射变化量对初始预测值进行修正，得到目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。The correction module is used to correct the initial prediction value according to the radiation change amount to obtain the final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster.
本发明实施例的第三方面提供了一种电子设备，包括存储器、处理器以及存储在存储器中并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，处理器执行计算机程序时实现如上第一方面的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的步骤。A third aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method of the first aspect above are implemented.
本发明实施例的第四方面提供了一种分布式光伏发电系统，包括多个发电站以及如上第三方面的电子设备。A fourth aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, comprising a plurality of power stations and the electronic device according to the third aspect above.
本发明实施例的第五方面提供了一种种计算机可读存储介质，计算机可读存储介质存储有计算机程序，计算机程序被处理器执行时实现如上第一方面的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的步骤。A fifth aspect of an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method of the first aspect above are implemented.
本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法、设备、系统及介质，首先获取目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值；其中，参考发电站为目标发电集群的多个发电站中任一发电站；目标发电集群为任一发电集群；初始预测值为根据目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据预测得到的发电数据；然后获取目标发电集群的卫星云图，并根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量；最终根据辐射变化量对初始预测值进行修正，得到目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。通过将参考发电站的光伏功率预测值作为集群内所有发电站的预测值，能够实现以较小计算量实现大量发电站的光伏功率预测，然后再根据卫星云图对各个电站的预测值进行修正，保证每个发电站的预测准确性，因此本发明能够在保证预测准确性的基础上，有效提高大量光伏电站的光伏功率的预测效率。The photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method, device, system and medium provided by the embodiment of the present invention first obtains the initial prediction value of the reference power station in the target period; wherein the reference power station is any power station among the multiple power stations of the target power generation cluster; the target power generation cluster is any power generation cluster; the initial prediction value is the power generation data predicted based on the meteorological data of the reference power station in the target period; then the satellite cloud map of the target power generation cluster is obtained, and according to the satellite cloud map, the radiation change of each power station of the target power generation cluster in the target period is determined; finally, the initial prediction value is corrected according to the radiation change to obtain the final power generation data of each power station of the target power generation cluster. By taking the photovoltaic power prediction value of the reference power station as the prediction value of all power stations in the cluster, the photovoltaic power prediction of a large number of power stations can be realized with a small amount of calculation, and then the prediction value of each power station is corrected according to the satellite cloud map to ensure the prediction accuracy of each power station. Therefore, the present invention can effectively improve the prediction efficiency of photovoltaic power of a large number of photovoltaic power stations on the basis of ensuring the prediction accuracy.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例中的技术方案，下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍，显而易见地，下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的一些实施例，对于本领域普通技术人员来讲，在不付出创造性劳动性的前提下，还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative labor.
图1是本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的应用场景图；FIG1 is an application scenario diagram of a photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
图2是本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的实现流程图；FIG2 is a flowchart of a method for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图3是本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测装置的结构示意图；3 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
图4是本发明实施例提供的电子设备的结构示意图。FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
以下描述中，为了说明而不是为了限定，提出了诸如特定系统结构、技术之类的具体细节，以便透彻理解本发明实施例。然而，本领域的技术人员应当清楚，在没有这些具体细节的其它实施例中也可以实现本发明。在其它情况中，省略对众所周知的系统、装置、电路以及方法的详细说明，以免不必要的细节妨碍本发明的描述。In the following description, specific details such as specific system structures, technologies, etc. are provided for the purpose of illustration rather than limitation, so as to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present invention. However, it should be clear to those skilled in the art that the present invention may be implemented in other embodiments without these specific details. In other cases, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted to prevent unnecessary details from obstructing the description of the present invention.
图1是本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的应用场景图。如图1所示，在一些实施例中，本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法可以但不限于应用于该应用场景。在该发明实施例中，该分布式光伏发电系统包括：多个发电站11以及电子设备12。FIG1 is an application scenario diagram of a photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG1, in some embodiments, the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention can be applied to, but not limited to, this application scenario. In this embodiment of the invention, the distributed photovoltaic power generation system includes: a plurality of power stations 11 and an electronic device 12.
分布式光伏发电系统可以根据光伏出力一致性预先划分为多个发电集群，每个发电集群包括多个发电站11，电子设备12可以是服务器或者终端，服务器可以是物理服务器、服务器集群、云服务器等，在此不作限定。终端可以是电脑、笔记本、调度终端等，在此不作限定。The distributed photovoltaic power generation system can be pre-divided into multiple power generation clusters according to the consistency of photovoltaic output, each power generation cluster includes multiple power stations 11, and the electronic device 12 can be a server or a terminal. The server can be a physical server, a server cluster, a cloud server, etc., which is not limited here. The terminal can be a computer, a notebook, a dispatching terminal, etc., which is not limited here.
在进行发电集群划分时，先获取各发电站历史发电数据，然后按照天气类型对各个发电站的历史发电数据进行分类，计算每种天气类型下，各个发电站的历史发电数据之间的相似度，将相似度大于第一预设值的发电站划分为一组，即可得到每种天气类型下的发电站划分结果。When dividing power generation clusters, first obtain the historical power generation data of each power station, then classify the historical power generation data of each power station according to the weather type, calculate the similarity between the historical power generation data of each power station under each weather type, and divide the power stations with similarity greater than the first preset value into a group, so as to obtain the power station division results under each weather type.
在根据天气类型得到划分结果之后，再获取各个发电站的地理位置，根据各个发电站之间的距离对发电站划分结果进行进一步划分，即可得到上述的多个发电集群。其中，每个发电集群内的各发电站具有气象相似性和空间相似性，因此必然具有光伏出力一致性。After obtaining the division results according to the weather type, the geographical location of each power station is obtained, and the power station division results are further divided according to the distance between each power station, so as to obtain the above-mentioned multiple power generation clusters. Among them, each power station in each power generation cluster has meteorological similarity and spatial similarity, so it must have photovoltaic output consistency.
图2是本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测方法的实现流程图。如图2所示，在一些实施例中，光伏发电系统发电量预测方法，应用于图1中所示的电子设备12，该方法包括：FIG2 is a flowchart of a method for predicting the power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG2, in some embodiments, the method for predicting the power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system is applied to the electronic device 12 shown in FIG1, and the method includes:
S210，获取目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值；其中，参考发电站为目标发电集群的多个发电站中任一发电站；目标发电集群为任一发电集群；初始预测值为根据目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据预测得到的发电数据。S210, obtaining the initial prediction value of the reference power station within the target time period; wherein the reference power station is any power station among multiple power stations of the target power generation cluster; the target power generation cluster is any power generation cluster; the initial prediction value is the power generation data predicted based on the meteorological data of the reference power station within the target time period.
在本发明实施例中，参考发电站可以是与集群中其他发电站的光伏出力一致性之和最高的发电站，也可以是集群地理位置中心的发电站，还可以是根据历史发电数据选取的发电稳定性最高的发电站，在此不作限定。由于对发电站进行了集群划分，而同一集群内的发电站的光伏出力一致性较高，因此在进行光伏功率预测时，仅需要进行参考发电站的预测，即可得到集群内所有发电站的预测值，但该方式虽然计算简便，由于同一集群内的发电站仍存在一定的差异特性，容易造成预测不准确的问题。因此需要对各个发电站的预测值分别进行处理。In an embodiment of the present invention, the reference power station can be the power station with the highest total consistency of photovoltaic output with other power stations in the cluster, or the power station at the geographical center of the cluster, or the power station with the highest power generation stability selected based on historical power generation data, without limitation here. Since the power stations are divided into clusters, and the photovoltaic output consistency of the power stations in the same cluster is relatively high, when predicting photovoltaic power, only the prediction of the reference power station is needed to obtain the predicted values of all power stations in the cluster. However, although this method is simple to calculate, it is easy to cause inaccurate predictions due to certain differences in characteristics between power stations in the same cluster. Therefore, it is necessary to process the predicted values of each power station separately.
S220，获取目标发电集群的卫星云图，并根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量。S220, obtaining a satellite cloud image of the target power generation cluster, and determining the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster within the target period according to the satellite cloud image.
在本发明实施例中，电子设备12可以从气象卫星或网络平台中获取卫星云图，根据前一时段内各集群的卫星云图的变化和当前的卫星云图预测目标时段的卫星云图，从而确定云图在目标时段内的变化。In an embodiment of the present invention, the electronic device 12 can obtain satellite cloud images from a meteorological satellite or a network platform, and predict the satellite cloud images of the target time period based on the changes in the satellite cloud images of each cluster in the previous time period and the current satellite cloud images, thereby determining the changes in the cloud images during the target time period.
由于集群的气象相似性，同一集群内发电站的温度、湿度等气象因素必然是相似的，由于集群的空间相似性，同一集群内发电站的经纬度相近，因此光照强度是相近的，因此影响光伏功率的主要因素是云层的变化，因此通过预测云图在目标时段内的变化，能够得到发电站所实际接收到的光辐射的变化。Due to the meteorological similarity of the clusters, the temperature, humidity and other meteorological factors of the power stations in the same cluster must be similar. Due to the spatial similarity of the clusters, the longitude and latitude of the power stations in the same cluster are similar, so the light intensity is similar. Therefore, the main factor affecting photovoltaic power is the change of clouds. Therefore, by predicting the changes in cloud maps during the target period, the changes in the actual light radiation received by the power station can be obtained.
S230，根据辐射变化量对初始预测值进行修正，得到目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。S230, correcting the initial prediction value according to the radiation change amount to obtain final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster.
在本发明实施例中，通过将各个发电站的辐射变化量与参考电站的辐射变化量进行对比，能够得到各个发电站与参考电站的相对辐射变化量，从而对各个发电站的初始预测值进行修正，得到最终发电数据。In an embodiment of the present invention, by comparing the radiation change of each power station with the radiation change of a reference power station, the relative radiation change of each power station and the reference power station can be obtained, thereby correcting the initial prediction value of each power station to obtain the final power generation data.
在本发明实施例中，通过将参考发电站的光伏功率预测值作为集群内所有发电站的预测值，能够实现以较小计算量实现大量发电站的光伏功率预测，然后再根据卫星云图对各个电站的预测值进行修正，保证每个发电站的预测准确性，因此本发明能够在保证预测准确性的基础上，有效提高大量光伏电站的光伏功率的预测效率。In an embodiment of the present invention, by taking the photovoltaic power prediction value of the reference power station as the prediction value of all power stations in the cluster, it is possible to realize photovoltaic power prediction of a large number of power stations with a smaller amount of calculation, and then correct the prediction value of each power station according to the satellite cloud map to ensure the prediction accuracy of each power station. Therefore, the present invention can effectively improve the prediction efficiency of photovoltaic power of a large number of photovoltaic power stations on the basis of ensuring prediction accuracy.
在一些实施例中，S230可以包括：计算目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量与参考发电站的辐射变化量的差值；根据差值和参考发电站的辐射变化量，确定目标发电集群的各个发电站的发电修正量；根据目标发电集群的各个发电站的初始预测值和发电修正量，确定目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。In some embodiments, S230 may include: calculating the difference between the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster and the radiation change of the reference power station; determining the power generation correction of each power station in the target power generation cluster based on the difference and the radiation change of the reference power station; determining the final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster based on the initial predicted value and the power generation correction of each power station in the target power generation cluster.
在本发明实施例中，若参考发电站的辐射变化量为A 0，集群内其他发电站的辐射变化量为A i，则发电修正量A’=(A i-A 0)/A 0。In the embodiment of the present invention, if the radiation change amount of the reference power station is A 0 , and the radiation change amounts of other power stations in the cluster are A i , then the power generation correction amount A '=( A i - A 0 )/ A 0 .
若A i>A 0，则A’>0，表示发电站相对于参考发电站的辐射变化量更大，则若参考电站在未来的发电量将增大B，则该发电站在未来的发电量将增大B*(1+A’)，若参考电站的发电量在未来减小，则该发电站未来发电量减小更多。If Ai > A0 , then A '>0, indicating that the radiation change of the power station is greater than that of the reference power station. If the power generation of the reference power station will increase by B in the future, then the power generation of this power station will increase by B*(1+ A ') in the future. If the power generation of the reference power station decreases in the future, then the power generation of this power station will decrease more.
若A i<A 0，则A’<0，表示发电站相对于参考发电站的辐射变化量更大，则若参考电站在未来的发电量将增大B，则该发电站在未来的发电量将增大B*(1+A’)，若参考电站的发电量在未来减小，则该发电站未来发电量减小更少。If Ai < A0 , then A '<0, indicating that the radiation change of the power station is greater than that of the reference power station. If the power generation of the reference power station will increase by B in the future, then the power generation of this power station will increase by B*(1+ A ') in the future. If the power generation of the reference power station will decrease in the future, then the power generation of this power station will decrease less in the future.
在一些实施例中，S220可以包括：根据当前时刻目标发电集群的卫星云图，确定目标发电集群内各个发电站的云遮系数；根据云遮系数和预先建立的概率分布模型，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量。In some embodiments, S220 may include: determining the cloud cover coefficient of each power station in the target power generation cluster based on the satellite cloud image of the target power generation cluster at the current moment; determining the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster within the target period based on the cloud cover coefficient and a pre-established probability distribution model.
在一些实施例中，根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量，包括：根据当前时刻目标发电集群的卫星云图，确定当前时刻的云层覆盖率和运动方向；将当前时刻的云层覆盖率和运动方向输入到预先建立的长短期记忆网络模型中，得到目标时刻内目标发电集群中各个发电站上方的云层状态；根据各个发电站上方的云层状态，确定目标时刻内目标发电集群中各个发电站上方的辐射变化量。In some embodiments, the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster within the target time period is determined based on the satellite cloud map, including: determining the cloud coverage and movement direction at the current moment based on the satellite cloud map of the target power generation cluster at the current moment; inputting the cloud coverage and movement direction at the current moment into a pre-established long short-term memory network model to obtain the cloud state above each power station in the target power generation cluster at the target moment; and determining the radiation change above each power station in the target power generation cluster at the target moment based on the cloud state above each power station.
在一些实施例中，光伏发电系统发电量预测方法，还包括：获取全部发电站在历史时段内的气象数据和历史发电数据；根据气象数据和历史发电数据，确定各个发电站之间的气象相似性；根据各个发电站所在的地理参数，确定各个发电站之间的空间相似性；根据气象相似性和空间相似性，确定各个发电站在每种天气下的出力一致性；遍历所有发电站，将出力一致性大于预设阈值的发电站划分到同一个发电集群中，得到多个发电集群。In some embodiments, the method for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system also includes: obtaining meteorological data and historical power generation data of all power stations in a historical period; determining the meteorological similarity between each power station based on the meteorological data and the historical power generation data; determining the spatial similarity between each power station based on the geographical parameters of each power station; determining the output consistency of each power station in each weather condition based on the meteorological similarity and spatial similarity; traversing all power stations, and dividing the power stations whose output consistency is greater than a preset threshold into the same power generation cluster, to obtain multiple power generation clusters.
本发明实施例中，在进行气象相似性划分时，具体将同一天气类型下的历史发电数据相似的发电站作为气象相似的发电站，天气类型可以包括但不限于下述至少一项：晴、雨、雪、霾、雾、大风。在进行空间相似性划分时，具体将同一地理环境下的历史发电数据相似的发电站作为空间相似的发电站，同一地理环境可以包括但不限于下述至少一项：同一海拔、同一纬度、同一经度、同一气候区、同一行政区。In the embodiment of the present invention, when performing meteorological similarity division, power stations with similar historical power generation data under the same weather type are specifically regarded as power stations with similar meteorology, and the weather type may include but is not limited to at least one of the following: sunny, rainy, snowy, haze, foggy, and windy. When performing spatial similarity division, power stations with similar historical power generation data under the same geographical environment are specifically regarded as power stations with similar space, and the same geographical environment may include but is not limited to at least one of the following: the same altitude, the same latitude, the same longitude, the same climate zone, and the same administrative region.
在一些实施例中，光伏发电系统发电量预测方法，还包括：获取目标发电集群中各个发电站在每种天气下的出力一致性；对于每个发电站，计算其各个天气下在集群中的出力一致性之和；将出力一致性之和最大的发电站作为目标发电集群的参考发电站。In some embodiments, the method for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system also includes: obtaining the output consistency of each power station in the target power generation cluster under each weather condition; for each power station, calculating the sum of its output consistency in the cluster under each weather condition; and taking the power station with the largest sum of output consistency as the reference power station of the target power generation cluster.
在一些实施例中，光伏发电系统发电量预测方法还包括：获取目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据；其中，气象数据可以包括但不限于下述至少一项：辐射照度、湿度、温度、能见度；将目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据输入到预先训练的卷积神经网络模型中，得到目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值。In some embodiments, the method for predicting power generation of a photovoltaic power generation system also includes: obtaining meteorological data of a reference power station within a target time period; wherein the meteorological data may include but is not limited to at least one of the following: irradiance, humidity, temperature, and visibility; inputting the meteorological data of the reference power station within the target time period into a pre-trained convolutional neural network model to obtain an initial prediction value of the reference power station within the target time period.
综上，本发明的有益效果具体为：通过将参考发电站的光伏功率预测值作为集群内所有发电站的预测值，能够实现以较小计算量实现大量发电站的光伏功率预测，然后再根据卫星云图对各个电站的预测值进行修正，保证每个发电站的预测准确性，因此本发明能够在保证预测准确性的基础上，有效提高大量光伏电站的光伏功率的预测效率。In summary, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: by taking the photovoltaic power prediction value of the reference power station as the prediction value of all power stations in the cluster, it is possible to realize the photovoltaic power prediction of a large number of power stations with a smaller amount of calculation, and then correct the prediction value of each power station according to the satellite cloud map to ensure the prediction accuracy of each power station. Therefore, the present invention can effectively improve the prediction efficiency of the photovoltaic power of a large number of photovoltaic power stations on the basis of ensuring the prediction accuracy.
应理解，上述实施例中各步骤的序号的大小并不意味着执行顺序的先后，各过程的执行顺序应以其功能和内在逻辑确定，而不应对本发明实施例的实施过程构成任何限定。It should be understood that the order of execution of the steps in the above embodiment does not necessarily mean the order of execution. The execution order of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiment of the present invention.
图3是本发明实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测装置的结构示意图。如图3所示，在一些实施例中，光伏发电系统发电量预测装置，包括：FIG3 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG3, in some embodiments, the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device includes:
获取模块，用于获取目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值；其中，参考发电站为目标发电集群的多个发电站中任一发电站；目标发电集群为任一发电集群；初始预测值为根据目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据预测得到的发电数据。An acquisition module is used to obtain the initial prediction value of a reference power station within a target period; wherein the reference power station is any power station among multiple power stations of a target power generation cluster; the target power generation cluster is any power generation cluster; the initial prediction value is the power generation data predicted based on the meteorological data of the reference power station within the target period.
确定模块，用于获取目标发电集群的卫星云图，并根据卫星云图，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量。The determination module is used to obtain a satellite cloud image of a target power generation cluster and determine the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster within a target period of time based on the satellite cloud image.
修正模块，用于根据辐射变化量对初始预测值进行修正，得到目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。The correction module is used to correct the initial prediction value according to the radiation change amount to obtain the final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster.
可选的，修正模块，具体用于计算目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量与参考发电站的辐射变化量的差值；根据差值和参考发电站的辐射变化量，确定目标发电集群的各个发电站的发电修正量；根据目标发电集群的各个发电站的初始预测值和发电修正量，确定目标发电集群的各个发电站的最终发电数据。Optionally, a correction module is specifically used to calculate the difference between the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster and the radiation change of the reference power station; determine the power generation correction of each power station in the target power generation cluster based on the difference and the radiation change of the reference power station; determine the final power generation data of each power station in the target power generation cluster based on the initial predicted value and power generation correction of each power station in the target power generation cluster.
可选的，修正模块，具体用于根据当前时刻目标发电集群的卫星云图，确定目标发电集群内各个发电站的云遮系数；根据云遮系数和预先建立的概率分布模型，确定目标时段内目标发电集群的各个发电站的辐射变化量。Optionally, the correction module is specifically used to determine the cloud cover coefficient of each power station in the target power generation cluster based on the satellite cloud image of the target power generation cluster at the current moment; and determine the radiation change of each power station in the target power generation cluster during the target period based on the cloud cover coefficient and a pre-established probability distribution model.
可选的，修正模块，具体用于根据当前时刻目标发电集群的卫星云图，确定当前时刻的云层覆盖率和运动方向；将当前时刻的云层覆盖率和运动方向输入到预先建立的长短期记忆网络模型中，得到目标时刻内目标发电集群中各个发电站上方的云层状态；根据各个发电站上方的云层状态，确定目标时刻内目标发电集群中各个发电站上方的辐射变化量。Optionally, a correction module is specifically used to determine the cloud coverage and movement direction at the current moment based on the satellite cloud image of the target power generation cluster at the current moment; input the cloud coverage and movement direction at the current moment into a pre-established long short-term memory network model to obtain the cloud state above each power station in the target power generation cluster at the target moment; and determine the radiation change above each power station in the target power generation cluster at the target moment based on the cloud state above each power station.
可选的，光伏发电系统发电量预测装置，还包括：划分模块，用于获取全部发电站在历史时段内的气象数据和历史发电数据；根据气象数据和历史发电数据，确定各个发电站之间的气象相似性；根据各个发电站所在的地理参数，确定各个发电站之间的空间相似性；根据气象相似性和空间相似性，确定各个发电站在每种天气下的出力一致性；遍历所有发电站，将出力一致性大于预设阈值的发电站划分到同一个发电集群中，得到多个发电集群。Optionally, the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device also includes: a division module, used to obtain meteorological data and historical power generation data of all power stations in a historical period; determine the meteorological similarity between each power station based on the meteorological data and historical power generation data; determine the spatial similarity between each power station based on the geographical parameters of each power station; determine the output consistency of each power station in each weather condition based on the meteorological similarity and spatial similarity; traverse all power stations, and divide the power stations with output consistency greater than a preset threshold into the same power generation cluster to obtain multiple power generation clusters.
可选的，光伏发电系统发电量预测装置，还包括：选取模块，用于获取目标发电集群中各个发电站在每种天气下的出力一致性；对于每个发电站，计算其各个天气下在集群中的出力一致性之和；将出力一致性之和最大的发电站作为目标发电集群的参考发电站。Optionally, the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device also includes: a selection module for obtaining the output consistency of each power station in the target power generation cluster under each weather condition; for each power station, calculating the sum of its output consistency in the cluster under each weather condition; and taking the power station with the largest sum of output consistency as the reference power station of the target power generation cluster.
可选的，光伏发电系统发电量预测装置，还包括：初始预测模块，用于获取目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据；其中，气象数据包括下述至少一项：辐射照度、湿度、温度、能见度；将目标时段内参考发电站的气象数据输入到预先训练的卷积神经网络模型中，得到目标时段内参考发电站的初始预测值。Optionally, the photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device also includes: an initial prediction module, used to obtain meteorological data of a reference power station within a target time period; wherein the meteorological data includes at least one of the following: irradiance, humidity, temperature, and visibility; the meteorological data of the reference power station within the target time period is input into a pre-trained convolutional neural network model to obtain an initial prediction value of the reference power station within the target time period.
本实施例提供的光伏发电系统发电量预测装置，可用于执行上述方法实施例，其实现原理和技术效果类似，本实施例此处不再赘述。The photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction device provided in this embodiment can be used to execute the above method embodiment. Its implementation principle and technical effect are similar, and this embodiment will not be repeated here.
图4是本发明实施例提供的电子设备的结构示意图。如图4所示，本发明的一个实施例提供的电子设备4，该实施例的电子设备4包括：处理器40、存储器41以及存储在存储器41中并可在处理器40上运行的计算机程序42。处理器40执行计算机程序42时实现上述各个光伏发电系统发电量预测方法实施例中的步骤，例如图2所示的步骤210至步骤230。或者，处理器40执行计算机程序42时实现上述各系统实施例中各模块/单元的功能，例如图3所示模块310至330的功能。FIG4 is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG4, an electronic device 4 provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes: a processor 40, a memory 41, and a computer program 42 stored in the memory 41 and executable on the processor 40. When the processor 40 executes the computer program 42, the steps in the above-mentioned photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method embodiments are implemented, such as steps 210 to 230 shown in FIG2. Alternatively, when the processor 40 executes the computer program 42, the functions of each module/unit in the above-mentioned system embodiments are implemented, such as the functions of modules 310 to 330 shown in FIG3.
示例性的，计算机程序42可以被分割成一个或多个模块/单元，一个或者多个模块/单元被存储在存储器41中，并由处理器40执行，以完成本发明。一个或多个模块/单元可以是能够完成特定功能的一系列计算机程序指令段，该指令段用于描述计算机程序42在电子设备4中的执行过程。Exemplarily, the computer program 42 may be divided into one or more modules/units, one or more modules/units are stored in the memory 41, and are executed by the processor 40 to implement the present invention. One or more modules/units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of implementing specific functions, and the instruction segments are used to describe the execution process of the computer program 42 in the electronic device 4.
电子设备4可以是终端或者服务器，其中，终端可以为手机、MCU、ECU等，在此不作限定，服务器可以是物理服务器、云服务器等，在此不作限定。电子设备4可包括，但不仅限于，处理器40、存储器41。本领域技术人员可以理解，图4仅仅是电子设备4的示例，并不构成对电子设备4的限定，可以包括比图示更多或更少的部件，或者组合某些部件，或者不同的部件，例如终端还可以包括输入输出设备、网络接入设备、总线等。The electronic device 4 may be a terminal or a server, wherein the terminal may be a mobile phone, an MCU, an ECU, etc., which is not limited here, and the server may be a physical server, a cloud server, etc., which is not limited here. The electronic device 4 may include, but is not limited to, a processor 40 and a memory 41. Those skilled in the art may understand that FIG. 4 is only an example of the electronic device 4 and does not constitute a limitation on the electronic device 4. It may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or different components. For example, the terminal may also include input and output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.
所称处理器40可以是中央处理单元(Central Processing Unit，CPU)，还可以是其他通用处理器、数字信号处理器 (Digital Signal Processor，DSP)、专用集成电路(Application Specific Integrated Circuit，ASIC)、现场可编程门阵列 (Field-Programmable Gate Array，FPGA) 或者其他可编程逻辑器件、分立门或者晶体管逻辑器件、分立硬件组件等。通用处理器可以是微处理器或者该处理器也可以是任何常规的处理器等。The processor 40 may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. A general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor, etc.
存储器41可以是电子设备4的内部存储单元，例如电子设备4的硬盘或内存。存储器41也可以是电子设备4的外部存储设备，例如电子设备4上配备的插接式硬盘，智能存储卡（Smart Media Card，SMC），安全数字（Secure Digital，SD）卡，闪存卡（Flash Card）等。进一步地，存储器41还可以既包括电子设备4的内部存储单元也包括外部存储设备。存储器41用于存储计算机程序以及终端所需的其他程序和数据。存储器41还可以用于暂时地存储已经输出或者将要输出的数据。The memory 41 may be an internal storage unit of the electronic device 4, such as a hard disk or memory of the electronic device 4. The memory 41 may also be an external storage device of the electronic device 4, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, etc. equipped on the electronic device 4. Further, the memory 41 may also include both an internal storage unit and an external storage device of the electronic device 4. The memory 41 is used to store computer programs and other programs and data required by the terminal. The memory 41 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
本发明实施例提供了一种计算机可读存储介质，计算机可读存储介质存储有计算机程序，计算机程序被处理器执行时实现上述光伏发电系统发电量预测方法实施例中的步骤。An embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps in the above-mentioned photovoltaic power generation system power generation prediction method embodiment are implemented.
计算机可读存储介质存储有计算机程序42，计算机程序42包括程序指令，程序指令被处理器40执行时实现上述实施例方法中的全部或部分流程，也可以通过计算机程序42来指令相关的硬件来完成，计算机程序42可存储于一计算机可读存储介质中，该计算机程序42在被处理器40执行时，可实现上述各个方法实施例的步骤。其中，计算机程序42包括计算机程序代码，计算机程序代码可以为源代码形式、对象代码形式、可执行文件或某些中间形式等。计算机可读介质可以包括：能够携带计算机程序代码的任何实体或装置、记录介质、U盘、移动硬盘、磁碟、光盘、计算机存储器、只读存储器（ROM，Read-Only Memory）、随机存取存储器（RAM，Random Access Memory）、电载波信号、电信信号以及软件分发介质等。The computer readable storage medium stores a computer program 42, which includes program instructions. When the program instructions are executed by the processor 40, all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment method are implemented. The computer program 42 can also be used to instruct related hardware to complete. The computer program 42 can be stored in a computer readable storage medium. When the computer program 42 is executed by the processor 40, the steps of each of the above-mentioned method embodiments can be implemented. Among them, the computer program 42 includes computer program code, which can be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form. The computer readable medium can include: any entity or device capable of carrying computer program code, recording medium, USB flash drive, mobile hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), electric carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium.
计算机可读存储介质可以是前述任一实施例的终端的内部存储单元，例如终端的硬盘或内存。计算机可读存储介质也可以是终端的外部存储设备，例如终端上配备的插接式硬盘，智能存储卡（Smart Media Card, SMC），安全数字（Secure Digital, SD）卡，闪存卡（Flash Card）等。进一步地，计算机可读存储介质还可以既包括终端的内部存储单元也包括外部存储设备。计算机可读存储介质用于存储计算机程序及终端所需的其他程序和数据。计算机可读存储介质还可以用于暂时地存储已经输出或者将要输出的数据。The computer-readable storage medium may be an internal storage unit of the terminal of any of the foregoing embodiments, such as a hard disk or memory of the terminal. The computer-readable storage medium may also be an external storage device of the terminal, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart memory card (Smart Media Card, SMC), a secure digital (Secure Digital, SD) card, a flash card (Flash Card), etc. equipped on the terminal. Further, the computer-readable storage medium may also include both an internal storage unit of the terminal and an external storage device. The computer-readable storage medium is used to store computer programs and other programs and data required by the terminal. The computer-readable storage medium may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.
应理解，上述实施例中各步骤的序号的大小并不意味着执行顺序的先后，各过程的执行顺序应以其功能和内在逻辑确定，而不应对本发明实施例的实施过程构成任何限定。It should be understood that the order of execution of the steps in the above embodiment does not necessarily mean the order of execution. The execution order of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiment of the present invention.
所属领域的技术人员可以清楚地了解到，为了描述的方便和简洁，仅以上述各功能单元、模块的划分进行举例说明，实际应用中，可以根据需要而将上述功能分配由不同的功能单元、模块完成，即将装置的内部结构划分成不同的功能单元或模块，以完成以上描述的全部或者部分功能。实施例中的各功能单元、模块可以集成在一个处理单元中，也可以是各个单元单独物理存在，也可以两个或两个以上单元集成在一个单元中，上述集成的单元既可以采用硬件的形式实现，也可以采用软件功能单元的形式实现。另外，各功能单元、模块的具体名称也只是为了便于相互区分，并不用于限制本申请的保护范围。上述系统中单元、模块的具体工作过程，可以参考前述方法实施例中的对应过程，在此不再赘述。The technicians in the relevant field can clearly understand that for the convenience and simplicity of description, only the division of the above-mentioned functional units and modules is used as an example for illustration. In practical applications, the above-mentioned function allocation can be completed by different functional units and modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional units or modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. The functional units and modules in the embodiment can be integrated in a processing unit, or each unit can exist physically separately, or two or more units can be integrated in one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit can be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units. In addition, the specific names of the functional units and modules are only for the convenience of distinguishing each other, and are not used to limit the scope of protection of this application. The specific working process of the units and modules in the above-mentioned system can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.
在上述实施例中，对各个实施例的描述都各有侧重，某个实施例中没有详述或记载的部分，可以参见其它实施例的相关描述。In the above embodiments, the description of each embodiment has its own emphasis. For parts that are not described or recorded in detail in a certain embodiment, reference can be made to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.
本领域普通技术人员可以意识到，结合本文中所公开的实施例描述的各示例的单元及算法步骤，能够以电子硬件、或者计算机软件和电子硬件的结合来实现。这些功能究竟以硬件还是软件方式来执行，取决于技术方案的特定应用和设计约束条件。专业技术人员可以对每个特定的应用来使用不同方法来实现所描述的功能，但是这种实现不应认为超出本发明的范围。Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, or a combination of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of the present invention.
在本发明所提供的实施例中，应该理解到，所揭露的装置/终端和方法，可以通过其它的方式实现。例如，以上所描述的装置/终端实施例仅仅是示意性的，例如，模块或单元的划分，仅仅为一种逻辑功能划分，实际实现时可以有另外的划分方式，例如多个单元或组件可以结合或者可以集成到另一个系统，或一些特征可以忽略，或不执行。另一点，所显示或讨论的相互之间的耦合或直接耦合或通讯连接可以是通过一些接口，装置或单元的间接耦合或通讯连接，可以是电性，机械或其它的形式。In the embodiments provided by the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed devices/terminals and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device/terminal embodiments described above are only schematic, for example, the division of modules or units is only a logical function division, and there may be other division methods in actual implementation, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. Another point is that the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be through some interfaces, indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or units, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.
作为分离部件说明的单元可以是或者也可以不是物理上分开的，作为单元显示的部件可以是或者也可以不是物理单元，即可以位于一个地方，或者也可以分布到多个网络单元上。可以根据实际的需要选择其中的部分或者全部单元来实现本实施例方案的目的。The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
另外，在本发明各个实施例中的各功能单元可以集成在一个处理单元中，也可以是各个单元单独物理存在，也可以两个或两个以上单元集成在一个单元中。上述集成的单元既可以采用硬件的形式实现，也可以采用软件功能单元的形式实现。In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units.
集成的模块/单元如果以软件功能单元的形式实现并作为独立的产品销售或使用时，可以存储在一个计算机可读取存储介质中。基于这样的理解，本发明实现上述实施例方法中的全部或部分流程，也可以通过计算机程序来指令相关的硬件来完成，的计算机程序可存储于一计算机可读存储介质中，该计算机程序在被处理器执行时，可实现上述各个方法实施例的步骤。其中，计算机程序包括计算机程序代码，计算机程序代码可以为源代码形式、对象代码形式、可执行文件或某些中间形式等。计算机可读介质可以包括：能够携带计算机程序代码的任何实体或装置、记录介质、U盘、移动硬盘、磁碟、光盘、计算机存储器、只读存储器（ROM，Read-Only Memory）、随机存取存储器（RAM，Random Access Memory）、电载波信号、电信信号以及软件分发介质等。If the integrated module/unit is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the present invention implements all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment method, and can also be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and the computer program can implement the steps of the above-mentioned various method embodiments when executed by the processor. Among them, the computer program includes computer program code, and the computer program code can be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form. Computer-readable media can include: any entity or device that can carry computer program code, recording medium, U disk, mobile hard disk, disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), electrical carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium, etc.
以上实施例仅用以说明本发明的技术方案，而非对其限制；尽管参照前述实施例对本发明进行了详细的说明，本领域的普通技术人员应当理解：其依然可以对前述各实施例所记载的技术方案进行修改，或者对其中部分技术特征进行等同替换；而这些修改或者替换，并不使相应技术方案的本质脱离本发明各实施例技术方案的精神和范围，均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents. Such modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
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