CN115967126B - Online analysis method for new energy cluster outcoming air supply risk under natural disasters - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an online analysis method for the outcoming air supply risk of a new energy cluster under natural disasters, which comprises the following steps: acquiring power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data to be analyzed, a power transmission channel associated with a new energy power station set and assessment fault data of the power transmission channel according to a set risk analysis period; static safety check is carried out according to the acquired data, the sensitivity of the active power output of each new energy power station to the active power flow of the power transmission channel and branch break distribution factors are obtained, a pre-built new energy power station aggregate output optimization model is solved, the sum maximum value of the output power of the new energy power station aggregate and key limiting factors of the new energy power station aggregate are obtained, and the insufficient output risk of the new energy power station aggregate is determined according to the sum maximum value; determining the risk of insufficient output according to the predicted data of the new energy power station; and determining the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk. The invention can comprehensively quantify the risks of natural disasters on the generation and the sending of new energy clusters from the source side and the network side, and provides a quantification basis for the regulation and control of new energy in extreme weather.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of dispatching operation control of power systems, in particular to an online analysis method for the external air supply risk of a new energy cluster under natural disasters.
Background
In recent years, with the rapid development of new energy power generation, the industry has abundant researches on new energy output prediction, new energy acceptance of a power grid and the like, and provides a foundation for the regulation and control of new energy. On the other hand, the evaluation of the fault probability of the power transmission line under the natural disasters also has a great deal of research, and a foundation is provided for the evaluation of the safety risk of the power grid. However, for evaluating the power generation and the delivery risk of new energy under natural disasters, no related comprehensive research exists at present, so that the new energy regulation and control under extreme weather also lacks related quantitative basis.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an online analysis method for the outcoming air supply risk of a new energy cluster under natural disasters, which can comprehensively quantify the risks of natural disasters on power generation and outcoming of the new energy cluster from a source side and a network side and provides a quantification basis for new energy regulation and control in extreme weather. The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows.
On one hand, the invention provides an online analysis method for the outcoming air supply risk of a new energy cluster under natural disasters, which comprises the following steps:
determining a new energy cluster to be analyzed, a new energy power station set contained in the new energy cluster, and a risk analysis period; corresponding to each risk analysis period, the following operations are executed:
acquiring power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and power transmission channels and assessment fault data of the power transmission channels associated with the new energy power station set;
according to the acquired data, carrying out static safety check on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel in the current power grid operation mode to obtain the sensitivity of each new energy power station active output to the power transmission channel active power flow and the branch break distribution factor;
according to the acquired data, the sensitivity and the branch break distribution factors, solving a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors thereof;
determining the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof;
determining the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data;
and determining the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set.
Optionally, the new energy power station prediction data includes the predicted output of each new energy power station at the prediction time, the predicted output of the new energy power station after the failure and the outage of part of the unit caused by the influence of external disasters at the prediction time, and the probability of the predicted output;
and determining the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data, wherein the formula is as follows:
wherein t is used 0 Representing the current time, T representing the risk analysis period, and P f_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output at +T), P d_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output after partial unit fault shutdown caused by external disaster at +T) moment, p i Indicating the output power of the ith new energy power station from P f_i Reduce to P d_i Probability of R O And representing the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set.
Optionally, the pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set is expressed as:
constraints considered by the output optimization model include: safety constraint of power transmission and transformation equipment, safety constraint of ground state of a power transmission channel and safety constraint under expected faults caused by natural disasters;
the safety constraints of the power transmission and transformation equipment comprise the upper and lower limit constraints of the output of the new energy power station, and are expressed as follows: p (P) k.d ≤P k ≤P k.u ,k∈N
The power transmission channel ground state safety constraints comprise a power transmission channel forward limit safety constraint in a ground state and a power transmission channel reverse limit safety constraint in the ground state, which are respectively expressed as:
the safety constraints under the expected faults caused by the natural disasters comprise forward limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults and reverse limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults, which are respectively expressed as:
wherein P is N Representing the sum of the output of the new energy power station set, P k 、P k.0 、P k.d 、P k.u Respectively representing the output optimized value, the current value, the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the kth new energy power station, S i.k Representing the sensitivity of the output of the kth new energy power station to the active power flow of the ith transmission channel, P j.0 、P j.lmt 、P′ j.lmt Respectively represents the current power flow, the forward limit and the reverse limit of the jth power transmission channel, eta i.j Branch break distribution factor, P, representing the active power flow of the ith power transmission channel to the jth power transmission channel j.lmt.F 、P′ j.lmt.F The forward fault allowance and the reverse fault allowance of the j-th power transmission channel are respectively represented, N represents a new energy power station set to be analyzed, and A represents a power transmission channel set related to the new energy power station set N.
Optionally, the determining the risk of insufficient delivery of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and the key limiting factor thereof includes:
judging whether a key limiting factor corresponding to the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station contains an expected failure safety constraint, if not, setting a preset flag bit of the new energy power station to be 0, otherwise, setting the flag bit of the new energy power station to be 1, and recording limited power transmissionChannel set B (B ε A) and its associated set of expected failures F B (F B ∈F 0 ) Wherein A represents a power transmission channel set related to a new energy power station set N to be analyzed, F 0 The union of static safety check fault sets associated with all power transmission channels in the power transmission channel set A under the current running mode of the power grid is shown:
comparing the maximum value P of the sum of the total output of the new energy power station Nmax Predictive power with new energy power station set N at the end of risk analysis cycleDetermining the risk of insufficient delivery according to the comparison result:
if it isThe risk of insufficient delivery is R T ＝0；
If it isAnd flag=0, the risk of undershoot is +.>
If it isAnd flag=1, the risk of underseeding is +.>Wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of any expected failure is solved as follows:
wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of occurrence of the ith expected failure.
Optionally, the determining the risk of insufficient delivery of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the risk of insufficient delivery and the risk of insufficient delivery of the new energy power station set includes:
according to formula R OT ＝max(R O ,R T ) And taking the larger one of the insufficient delivery risk and the insufficient delivery risk as the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set to be analyzed.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides an online analysis device for air supply risk outside of a new energy cluster under natural disasters, including:
the analysis object determining module is configured to determine a new energy cluster to be analyzed, a new energy power station set contained in the new energy cluster to be analyzed and a risk analysis period;
the data acquisition module is configured to acquire power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and power transmission channels and assessment fault data of the power transmission channels associated with the new energy power station set according to the risk analysis period;
the safety check module is configured to perform static safety check on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel in the current power grid operation mode according to the acquired data, so as to obtain the sensitivity of the active output of each new energy power station to the active power flow of the power transmission channel and the branch break distribution factor;
the optimization analysis module is configured to solve a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set according to the acquired data, the sensitivity and the branch break distribution factor to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output forces of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors of the maximum value;
the insufficient delivery risk analysis module is configured to determine the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof;
the insufficient output risk analysis module is configured to determine insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data;
the output insufficient output risk determining module is configured to determine the output insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set.
Optionally, the new energy power station prediction data acquired by the data acquisition module include the predicted output of each new energy power station at the prediction time, and the predicted output and the probability of the new energy power station after the failure and outage of part of the unit caused by the influence of external disasters at the prediction time;
the insufficient output risk analysis module determines insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data, and the formula is as follows:
wherein t is used 0 Representing the current time, T representing the risk analysis period, and P f_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output at +T), P d_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output after partial unit fault shutdown caused by external disaster at +T) moment, p i Indicating the output power of the ith new energy power station from P f_i Reduce to P d_i Probability of R O And representing the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set.
Optionally, the underserved risk analysis module determines the underserved risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and the key limiting factor thereof, including:
judging whether a key limiting factor corresponding to the maximum value of the sum of the total output of the new energy power station contains an expected failure safety constraint, ifIf the predicted fault safety constraint is not contained, setting a preset flag bit to be=0, otherwise setting flag bit to be=1, and recording a limited power transmission channel set B (B epsilon A) and an associated predicted fault set F thereof B (F B ∈F 0 ) Wherein A represents a power transmission channel set related to a new energy power station set N to be analyzed, F 0 The union of static safety check fault sets associated with all power transmission channels in the power transmission channel set A under the current running mode of the power grid is shown:
comparing the maximum value P of the sum of the total output of the new energy power station Nmax Predictive power with new energy power station set N at the end of risk analysis cycleDetermining the risk of insufficient delivery according to the comparison result:
if it isThe risk of insufficient delivery is R T ＝0；
If it isAnd flag=0, the risk of undershoot is +.>
If it isAnd flag=1, the risk of underseeding is +.>Wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of any expected failure is solved as follows:
wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of occurrence of the ith expected failure.
Optionally, the output insufficient output risk determining module determines the output insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set, including:
according to formula R OT ＝max(R O ,R T ) And taking the larger one of the insufficient delivery risk and the insufficient delivery risk as the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set to be analyzed.
In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method for online analysis of outcoming air risks of a new energy cluster in a natural disaster according to the first aspect.
Advantageous effects
According to the method for on-line analysis of the new energy cluster output risk outside the natural disasters, the problem that the existing technology lacks a new energy cluster output risk quantitative assessment method under extreme weather conditions is solved, influences of external natural disasters on the new energy output insufficiency and the new energy output insufficiency are comprehensively considered from a source side and a network side, the new energy cluster output and the new energy output risk of the natural disasters are comprehensively quantified by optimizing the acceptance capacity of the power network to the new energy clusters, analysis of the monitored new energy power station clusters on the processing and output risk of the new energy power station clusters at a regulation center can be realized, and quantitative basis is provided for new energy regulation under extreme weather.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method for online analysis of the air supply risk outside the power of a new energy cluster under natural disasters;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of an online analysis method for the air supply risk outside the power of a new energy cluster under natural disasters in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Further description is provided below in connection with the drawings and the specific embodiments.
The technical conception of the invention is as follows: considering that the risk of insufficient output of the new energy cluster is mainly caused in two aspects, firstly, the power generation capacity of a source side is insufficient due to disasters, and secondly, the power transmission capacity is reduced due to the failure of a new energy output channel caused by the disasters. According to the invention, the predicted value of the new energy power station output is used as a reference value for evaluating the risk of the output shortage, the outage probability of the new energy unit is analyzed according to the influence of natural disasters and by combining with the state of the new energy unit, the lower limit of the predicted value of the new energy output and the probability thereof are corrected, and the risk of the output shortage is calculated; then, according to the influence of natural disasters on the new energy multistage delivery channel, evaluating the channel fault probability and the power transmission capacity thereof, establishing a new energy cluster output maximization optimization model considering multistage channel safety constraint, and calculating the delivery shortage risk; and finally, integrating the risk of insufficient output and insufficient output of the new energy, and determining the risk of insufficient output of the new energy cluster.
Example 1
The embodiment introduces an online analysis method for the air supply risk outside the power of a new energy cluster under natural disasters, and referring to fig. 1, the method includes:
determining a new energy cluster to be analyzed, a new energy power station set contained in the new energy cluster, and a risk analysis period; corresponding to each risk analysis period, the following operations are executed:
acquiring power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and power transmission channels and assessment fault data of the power transmission channels associated with the new energy power station set;
according to the acquired data, carrying out static safety check on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel in the current power grid operation mode to obtain the sensitivity of each new energy power station active output to the power transmission channel active power flow and the branch break distribution factor;
according to the acquired data, the sensitivity and the branch break distribution factors, solving a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors thereof;
determining the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof;
determining the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data;
and determining the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set.
Referring to fig. 2, the following describes the steps in the analysis of the air risk outside the new energy cluster in detail.
1. Method preparation
Before the risk analysis of the present embodiment is executed, first, a new energy cluster object to be analyzed and power transmission channels related to the new energy cluster object to be analyzed need to be determined, where the power transmission channels may be monitoring objects of a current regulation center or power transmission channels capable of acquiring related monitoring data.
In order to realize the periodic online analysis of risks, in this embodiment, the period of online analysis is denoted as T, and on this basis, in this embodiment, the new energy power station set is denoted as N, and the following analysis process is denoted as T 0 As the current operating time of the power grid is described.
2. Data acquisition
The present embodiment will (t) 0 The power transmission channel set which is monitored by the self-regulation and control center at +T) moment and is related to the new energy power station set N is marked as A, and the static safety check fault set related to the ith power transmission channel in A under the current running mode of the power grid is marked as F 0i The union set of static safety check fault sets associated with all power transmission channels in A under the current running mode of the power grid is marked as F 0 。
In each risk analysis period, the embodiment needs to obtain power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and assessment fault data of a power transmission channel and a power transmission channel associated with the new energy power station set, wherein the new energy power station prediction data comprises predicted output of each new energy power station at a prediction time, and predicted output and probability of the new energy power station after partial unit fault shutdown caused by external disaster influence at the prediction time.
3. Data analysis
3.1 Risk analysis of insufficient output
In this section, the embodiment uses the predicted value of the new energy power station output as the reference value for evaluating the risk of the output shortage, analyzes the outage probability of the new energy unit according to the influence of external natural disasters and by combining with the state of the new energy unit, corrects the lower limit of the predicted value of the new energy output and the probability thereof, and calculates the risk of the output shortage.
Specifically, in this embodiment, according to the new energy power station prediction data, the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set is determined, where the formula is:
wherein t is used 0 Representing the current time, T representing the risk analysis period, and P f_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output at +T), P d_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output after partial unit fault shutdown caused by external disaster at +T) moment, p i Indicating the output power of the ith new energy power station from P f_i Reduce to P d_i Probability of R O And representing the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set.
3.2 analysis of risk of underserved delivery
In this section, in this embodiment, according to the influence of natural disasters on the new energy multistage delivery channel, the channel failure probability and the power transmission capacity thereof are evaluated, a new energy cluster output maximization optimization model considering multistage channel security constraints is established, and the delivery shortage risk is calculated.
Specifically, first, according to the obtained data, in this embodiment, under the current power grid operation mode, F 0 Static safety check is carried out on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel, and the sensitivity of the active output of each new energy power station to the active power flow of the power transmission channel and the branch break distribution factor are obtained; and then solving a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set according to the acquired data, the calculated sensitivity and the calculated branch break distribution factor to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors thereof.
In this embodiment, with the goal of maximizing new energy output in the new energy power station set N, safety constraints under expected faults caused by power transmission equipment, power transmission channel ground states and natural disasters and upper and lower limit constraints of new energy power station output are considered, and the constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set is expressed as:
the constraints considered include:
the safety constraints of the power transmission and transformation equipment comprise the upper and lower limit constraints of the output of the new energy power station, and are expressed as follows: p (P) k.d ≤P k ≤P k.u ,k∈N
The power transmission channel ground state safety constraints comprise a power transmission channel forward limit safety constraint in a ground state and a power transmission channel reverse limit safety constraint in the ground state, which are respectively expressed as:
the safety constraints under the expected faults caused by the natural disasters comprise forward limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults and reverse limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults, which are respectively expressed as:
wherein P is N Representing the sum of the output of the new energy power station set, P k 、P k.0 、P k.d 、P k.u Respectively representing the output optimized value, the current value, the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the kth new energy power station, S i.k Representing the sensitivity of the output of the kth new energy power station to the active power flow of the ith transmission channel, P j.0 、P j.lmt 、P′ j.lmt Respectively represents the current power flow, the forward limit and the reverse limit of the jth power transmission channel, eta i.j Branch break distribution factor, P, representing the active power flow of the ith power transmission channel to the jth power transmission channel j.lmt.F 、P′ j.lmt.F The forward fault allowance and the reverse fault allowance of the j-th power transmission channel are respectively represented, N represents a new energy power station set to be analyzed, and A represents a power transmission channel set related to the new energy power station set N.
Solving the pre-constructed linear programming model to obtain the sum maximum value P of the N output forces of the new energy power station set Nmax And its corresponding key limiting factor. The key limiting factor refers to the maximum value P obtained by the linear programming model Nmax And taking constraint conditions corresponding to the equal sign from inequality constraint conditions corresponding to the ground state safety constraint and the expected fault safety constraint.
According to the sum maximum P of N output forces of the new energy power station set Nmax Corresponding key limiting factors, if the key limiting factors comprise expected fault safety constraints, setting a preset flag bit of the key limiting factors to be 0, otherwise setting flag bits to be 1, and recording a limited power transmission channel set B (B epsilon A) and an associated expected fault set F thereof B (F B ∈F 0 )。
Comparing the maximum value P of the sum of the collective output of the new energy power station Nmax Risk analysis with new energy power station set NPredicted effort at the end of the cycleDetermining the risk of insufficient delivery according to the comparison result:
if it isThe risk of insufficient delivery is R T ＝0；
If it isAnd flag=0, the risk of undershoot is +.>
If it isAnd flag=1, the risk of underseeding is +.>Wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of any expected failure is solved as follows:
wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of occurrence of the ith expected failure.
4. Determination of the risk of insufficient delivery of force
After the insufficient output risk and the insufficient output risk are obtained through analysis, the insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set can be determined according to the magnitude relation between the insufficient output risk and the insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set, and the method comprises the following steps:
according to formula R OT ＝max(R O ,R T ) The larger of the risk of insufficient delivery and the risk of insufficient output is taken as the current time t 0 And the corresponding output of the new energy power station set to be analyzed is insufficient.
And then, the process can be transferred to the second part and the contents of the second part to the fourth part are repeated to realize the analysis of the insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set N in the next risk analysis period.
Example 2
Based on the same inventive concept as that of embodiment 1, this embodiment introduces an online analysis device for air supply risk outside of new energy cluster under natural disasters, including:
the analysis object determining module is configured to determine a new energy cluster to be analyzed, a new energy power station set contained in the new energy cluster to be analyzed and a risk analysis period;
the data acquisition module is configured to acquire power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and power transmission channels and assessment fault data of the power transmission channels associated with the new energy power station set according to the risk analysis period;
the safety check module is configured to perform static safety check on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel in the current power grid operation mode according to the acquired data, so as to obtain the sensitivity of the active output of each new energy power station to the active power flow of the power transmission channel and the branch break distribution factor;
the optimization analysis module is configured to solve a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set according to the acquired data, the sensitivity and the branch break distribution factor to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output forces of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors of the maximum value;
the insufficient delivery risk analysis module is configured to determine the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof;
the insufficient output risk analysis module is configured to determine insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data;
the output insufficient output risk determining module is configured to determine the output insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set.
Specific functional implementations of the above functional modules are related to the content in embodiment 1, and are not repeated.
Example 3
The present embodiment describes a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the method for online analysis of outcoming air risk of a new energy cluster under natural disasters as described in embodiment 1
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The embodiments of the present invention have been described above with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, which are merely illustrative and not restrictive, and many forms may be made by those having ordinary skill in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention and the scope of the claims, which are all within the protection of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. An online analysis method for the air supply risk outside the power of a new energy cluster under natural disasters is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a new energy cluster to be analyzed, a new energy power station set contained in the new energy cluster, and a risk analysis period; corresponding to each risk analysis period, the following operations are executed:
acquiring power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and power transmission channels and assessment fault data of the power transmission channels associated with the new energy power station set;
according to the acquired data, carrying out static safety check on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel in the current power grid operation mode to obtain the sensitivity of each new energy power station active output to the power transmission channel active power flow and the branch break distribution factor;
according to the acquired data, the sensitivity and the branch break distribution factors, solving a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors thereof;
determining the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof;
determining the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data;
determining the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set;
the output optimization model of the new energy power station set constructed in advance is expressed as:
constraints considered by the output optimization model include: safety constraint of power transmission and transformation equipment, safety constraint of ground state of a power transmission channel and safety constraint under expected faults caused by natural disasters;
the safety constraints of the power transmission and transformation equipment comprise the upper and lower limit constraints of the output of the new energy power station, and are expressed as follows: p (P) k.d ≤P k ≤P k.u ,k∈N
The power transmission channel ground state safety constraints comprise a power transmission channel forward limit safety constraint in a ground state and a power transmission channel reverse limit safety constraint in the ground state, which are respectively expressed as:
the safety constraints under the expected faults caused by the natural disasters comprise forward limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults and reverse limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults, which are respectively expressed as:
wherein P is N Representing the sum of the output of the new energy power station set, P k 、P k.0 、P k.d 、P k.u Respectively representing the output optimized value, the current value, the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the kth new energy power station, S i.k Representing the sensitivity of the output of the kth new energy power station to the active power flow of the ith transmission channel, P j.0 、P j.lmt 、P j ' .lmt Respectively represents the current power flow, the forward limit and the reverse limit of the jth power transmission channel, eta i.j Branch break distribution factor, P, representing the active power flow of the ith power transmission channel to the jth power transmission channel j.lmt.F 、P j ' .lmt.F The forward fault allowance and the reverse fault allowance of the j-th power transmission channel are respectively represented, N represents a new energy power station set to be analyzed, and A represents a power transmission channel set related to the new energy power station set N.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the new energy power station prediction data comprises predicted output of each new energy power station at a prediction time, and predicted output and probability of the new energy power station after the new energy power station is influenced by an external disaster to cause the failure and outage of a part of units at the prediction time;
and determining the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data, wherein the formula is as follows:
wherein t is used 0 Representing the current time, T representing the risk analysis period, and P f_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output at +T), P d_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output after partial unit fault shutdown caused by external disaster at +T) moment, p i Indicating the output power of the ith new energy power station from P f_i Reduce to P d_i Probability of R O And representing the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein determining the undersupply risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the outputs and the key limiting factor thereof comprises:
judging whether a key limited factor corresponding to the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station contains an expected failure safety constraint, if not, setting a preset flag bit of the new energy power station to be=0, otherwise, setting flag to be=1, and recording a limited power transmission channel set B (B epsilon A) and an associated expected failure set F thereof B (F B ∈F 0 ) Wherein A represents a power transmission channel set related to a new energy power station set N to be analyzed, F 0 The union of static safety check fault sets associated with all power transmission channels in the power transmission channel set A under the current running mode of the power grid is shown:
comparing the maximum value P of the sum of the total output of the new energy power station Nmax Predictive power with new energy power station set N at the end of risk analysis cycleDetermining the risk of insufficient delivery according to the comparison result:
if it isThe risk of insufficient delivery is R T ＝0；
If it isAnd flag=0, the risk of undershoot is +.>
If it isAnd flag=1, the risk of underseeding is +.>Wherein p is FB Representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of any expected failure is solved as follows:
wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of occurrence of the ith expected failure.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the risk of the shortage of the output of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the risk of the shortage of the output of the new energy power station set and the risk of the shortage of the output comprises:
according to formula R OT ＝max(R O ,R T ) Will send out the shortage risk R T And risk of insufficient output R O The larger one of the two is used as the output power of the new energy power station set to be analyzedAnd (5) risk of deficiency.
5. An online analysis device for air supply risk outside of new energy cluster under natural disasters is characterized by comprising:
the analysis object determining module is configured to determine a new energy cluster to be analyzed, a new energy power station set contained in the new energy cluster to be analyzed and a risk analysis period;
the data acquisition module is configured to acquire power grid state estimation data, new energy power station prediction data and power transmission channels and assessment fault data of the power transmission channels associated with the new energy power station set according to the risk analysis period;
the safety check module is configured to perform static safety check on each static safety check fault associated with each power transmission channel in the current power grid operation mode according to the acquired data, so as to obtain the sensitivity of the active output of each new energy power station to the active power flow of the power transmission channel and the branch break distribution factor;
the optimization analysis module is configured to solve a pre-constructed output optimization model of the new energy power station set according to the acquired data, the sensitivity and the branch break distribution factor to obtain the maximum value of the sum of the output forces of the new energy power station set and key limiting factors of the maximum value;
the insufficient delivery risk analysis module is configured to determine the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof;
the insufficient output risk analysis module is configured to determine insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data;
the output insufficient output risk determining module is configured to determine the output insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the output insufficient risk and the output insufficient risk of the new energy power station set;
the output optimization model of the new energy power station set constructed in advance is expressed as:
constraints considered by the output optimization model include: safety constraint of power transmission and transformation equipment, safety constraint of ground state of a power transmission channel and safety constraint under expected faults caused by natural disasters;
the safety constraints of the power transmission and transformation equipment comprise the upper and lower limit constraints of the output of the new energy power station, and are expressed as follows: p (P) k.d ≤P k ≤P k.u ,k∈N
The power transmission channel ground state safety constraints comprise a power transmission channel forward limit safety constraint in a ground state and a power transmission channel reverse limit safety constraint in the ground state, which are respectively expressed as:
the safety constraints under the expected faults caused by the natural disasters comprise forward limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults and reverse limit safety constraints of the power transmission channel under the expected faults, which are respectively expressed as:
wherein P is N Representing the sum of the output of the new energy power station set, P k 、P k.0 、P k.d 、P k.u Respectively representing the output optimized value, the current value, the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the kth new energy power station, S i.k Representing the sensitivity of the output of the kth new energy power station to the active power flow of the ith transmission channel, P j.0 、P j.lmt 、P j ' .lmt Respectively represents the current power flow, the forward limit and the reverse limit of the jth power transmission channel, eta i.j Branch break distribution factor, P, representing the active power flow of the ith power transmission channel to the jth power transmission channel j.lmt.F 、P j ' .lmt.F The forward fault allowance and the reverse fault allowance of the j-th power transmission channel are respectively represented, N represents a new energy power station set to be analyzed, and A represents a power transmission channel set related to the new energy power station set N.
6. The online analysis device for the external air supply risk of the new energy cluster under the natural disasters according to claim 5, wherein the new energy power station prediction data acquired by the data acquisition module comprises the predicted output of each new energy power station at the prediction moment, and the predicted output and the probability of the new energy power station after the partial unit fault outage caused by the external disasters at the prediction moment;
the insufficient output risk analysis module determines insufficient output risk of the new energy power station set according to the new energy power station prediction data, and the formula is as follows:
wherein t is used 0 Representing the current time, T representing the risk analysis period, and P f_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output at +T), P d_i Indicating that the ith new energy power station in the new energy power station set N is in (t) 0 Predicted output after partial unit fault shutdown caused by external disaster at +T) moment, p i Indicating the output power of the ith new energy power station from P f_i Reduce to P d_i Probability of R O And representing the risk of insufficient output of the new energy power station set.
7. The online analysis device for risk of new energy cluster outcoming air supply under natural disasters according to claim 6, wherein the insufficient-delivery risk analysis module determines the insufficient-delivery risk of the new energy power station set according to the maximum value of the sum of the output and key limited factors thereof, and the online analysis device comprises:
judging whether a key limited factor corresponding to the maximum value of the sum of the output of the new energy power station contains an expected failure safety constraint, if not, setting a preset flag bit of the new energy power station to be=0, otherwise, setting flag to be=1, and recording a limited power transmission channel set B (B epsilon A) and an associated expected failure set F thereof B (F B ∈F 0 ) Wherein A represents a power transmission channel set related to a new energy power station set N to be analyzed, F 0 The union of static safety check fault sets associated with all power transmission channels in the power transmission channel set A under the current running mode of the power grid is shown:
comparing the maximum value P of the sum of the total output of the new energy power station Nmax Predictive power with new energy power station set N at the end of risk analysis cycleDetermining the risk of insufficient delivery according to the comparison result:
if it isThe risk of insufficient delivery is R T ＝0；
If it isAnd flag=0, the risk of undershoot is +.>
If it isAnd flag=1, the risk of insufficient delivery is/>Wherein p is FB Representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of any expected failure is solved as follows:
wherein,representing the set of expected faults F B The probability of occurrence of the ith expected failure.
8. The online analysis device for risk of air supply out of new energy cluster power under natural disasters according to claim 5, wherein the power shortage risk determination module determines the power shortage risk of the new energy power station set according to the magnitude relation between the power shortage risk and the power shortage risk, and the method comprises the following steps:
according to formula R OT ＝max(R O ,R T ) And taking the larger one of the insufficient delivery risk and the insufficient delivery risk as the insufficient delivery risk of the new energy power station set to be analyzed.
9. A computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, which when executed by a processor, implements the method for online analysis of outcoming air risk of a new energy cluster under natural disasters according to any one of claims 1-4.
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