CN112383045B - Transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method and device for new energy power generation uncertainty - Google Patents

Transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method and device for new energy power generation uncertainty Download PDF

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CN112383045B
CN112383045B CN202011053005.2A CN202011053005A CN112383045B CN 112383045 B CN112383045 B CN 112383045B CN 202011053005 A CN202011053005 A CN 202011053005A CN 112383045 B CN112383045 B CN 112383045B
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transient stability
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徐泰山
刘韶峰
王昊昊
汪马翔
常康
李吉晨
张昊天
陈堂龙
扈卫卫
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Nari Technology Co Ltd
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G06Q10/06393—Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/04—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for connecting networks of the same frequency but supplied from different sources
    • H02J3/06—Controlling transfer of power between connected networks; Controlling sharing of load between connected networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • H02J3/381—Dispersed generators
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/10—Power transmission or distribution systems management focussing at grid-level, e.g. load flow analysis, node profile computation, meshed network optimisation, active network management or spinning reserve management
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
    • H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The invention discloses a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method and a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation device considering new energy power generation uncertainty, wherein the method comprises the following steps: calculating a comprehensive influence factor of the new energy station on the transient stability of the power grid according to the transient stability margin of the transient stability key mode and the participation factor of the new energy station, and determining a leading new energy station; determining an active sampling interval of a leading new energy station according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of the active real-time plan value on transient stability of a power grid of the new energy station, and generating active grading interval combinations of all leading new energy stations; calculating transient stability margins of expected faults under the power grid operation states corresponding to the combinations to obtain transient stability margin out-of-limit combinations; and calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of the new energy power generation uncertainty according to the expected failure occurrence probability and the probability of the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination. The invention realizes the quantitative evaluation of the transient stability out-of-limit risk of the power grid.

Description

Transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method and device for new energy power generation uncertainty
Technical Field
The invention relates to a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method and device for new energy power generation uncertainty, and belongs to the technical field of operation and control of power systems.
Background
The safety stability of the power grid changes along with the change of the running state of the power grid, the uncertainty of the running state of the power grid can be caused by the uncertainty of new energy power generation, and the safety stability of the power grid under the new energy grid connection presents a probability characteristic. With the gradual increase of the new energy power generation ratio, the uncertainty of the power grid operation state is gradually intensified, the probability characteristic of the power grid safety and stability is not ignored, and the out-of-limit probability of the power grid safety and stability becomes an important index for dispatching operation control personnel to monitor the power grid safety risk.
For the processing of the uncertainty of new energy power generation, a scene method is generally adopted. Generating a new energy station power generation combination scene through power generation discretization of the new energy station, and performing safety and stability evaluation on the combination scene by adopting a safety and stability analysis method aiming at the determined power grid operation state to realize power grid safety and stability probability characteristic analysis of new energy power generation uncertainty. Under the condition of few new energy stations, the calculation speed of the existing method can meet the real-time requirement of online safety and stability analysis. However, as the number of new energy stations increases, the number of new energy station power generation combination scenes increases sharply, and there is a problem of combination explosion. The existing method cannot meet the requirement of online safety and stability analysis of an actual power grid accessed by a large number of new energy stations on the calculation speed.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method and a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation device considering the uncertainty of new energy power generation so as to solve the problem that the existing method cannot meet the requirement of the online safety and stability analysis calculation speed of an actual power grid accessed by a large number of new energy stations.
The invention specifically adopts the following technical scheme: the method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of the uncertainty of new energy power generation comprises the following steps:
step SS 1: performing quantitative assessment on the transient stability of each expected fault in an expected fault set F according to the expected running state S of the power grid at a set time t to obtain a transient stability key mode set M of each expected fault in the expected fault set F, a transient stability margin corresponding to each key mode in the transient stability key mode set M, and transient stability participation factors of each new energy station in the new energy station set N;
step SS 2: aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F, respectively calculating a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station in the new energy station set N under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid, and generating a dominant new energy station set D associated with the expected fault;
step SS 3: aiming at each expected fault in an expected fault set F, respectively determining an active sampling interval of each new energy station in D under the expected fault according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station on the transient stability of the power grid in a main lead new energy station set D at the time t, and generating an active grading interval combination set C of each new energy station in the main lead new energy station set D;
step SS 4: respectively calculating transient stability margins of the expected faults in the power grid running state corresponding to each combination in the active power step interval combination set C aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F to obtain an out-of-limit transient stability margin combination set U under the expected faults;
step SS 5: and calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of the new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in the expected fault set F at the moment t and the probability of each combination in the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected fault.
As a preferred embodiment, step SS1 specifically includes: the transient stability critical mode set M in the expected fault set F is a set consisting of transient stability modes of which the difference between the transient stability margin and the minimum value of the transient stability margins in all the transient stability modes is smaller than a set value.
As a preferred embodiment, step SS2 specifically includes:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station in the new energy station set N on the transient stability of the power grid under the expected fault is as follows:
λ n ＝∑ m∈M [λ m.n (1-η m ) α ]，n∈N (1)
in the formula, λ n Collecting comprehensive influence factors, namely lambda, of the new energy station N in the new energy station set N to the transient stability of the power grid under the expected fault m.n A transient stability reference factor, η, of the new energy station N in the new energy station set N under the key mode M in the transient stability key mode set M for the expected failure m The transient stability margin of the key mode M in the transient stability key mode set M for the expected fault is in the range of [ -1,1]And alpha is a set parameter and is larger than 0.
As a preferred embodiment, step SS2 further includes:
the method for generating the leading new energy station set D associated with the expected failure comprises the following steps: after the new energy station which does not satisfy the following formula (2) under the expected fault is removed from the new energy station set N, the new energy station is taken as a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected fault;
Figure RE-GDA0002897641020000031
in the formula, beta is a set parameter, and is larger than 0 and smaller than 1.
As a preferred embodiment, step SS2 further includes:
respectively replacing new energy stations in a leading new energy station set D meeting the following formula (3) with a leading new energy equivalent station, updating the leading new energy station set D, taking the average value of the transient stability comprehensive influence factors of the leading new energy station represented by the leading new energy equivalent station on the power grid as the comprehensive influence factor of the transient stability comprehensive influence factors on the power grid,
Figure RE-GDA0002897641020000032
in the formula, epsilon is a set parameter and is more than 0; lambda i The comprehensive influence factor of the leading new energy station i in the leading new energy station set D under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid is obtained; lambda [ alpha ] j To predict the principal under faultLeading a comprehensive influence factor of a new energy station j to the transient stability of the power grid in a new energy station set D; lambda [ alpha ] d And the comprehensive influence factor of the new energy station D on the transient stability of the power grid is led in the leading new energy station set D under the expected fault.
As a preferred embodiment, in step SS3, the determining an active sampling interval of each new energy station in the dominant new energy station set D under the expected failure, and generating an active staging interval combination set C of each new energy station in the dominant new energy station set D includes the following steps:
determining an active confidence interval of each new energy station in the new energy station set D at the time t according to the set confidence level parameter and the active probability distribution density function of each new energy station in the leading new energy station set D at the time t;
aiming at a new energy station with a comprehensive influence factor on the transient stability of the power grid in a leading new energy station set D larger than 0, taking an active real-time plan value at the moment t as the lower limit of an active sampling interval of the new energy station, and taking the upper limit of an active confidence interval at the moment t as the upper limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station; aiming at a new energy station with a comprehensive influence factor smaller than 0 on the transient stability of the power grid in a leading new energy station set D, taking an active real-time plan value at the time t as an upper limit of an active sampling interval of the new energy station, and taking a lower limit of an active configuration interval at the time t as a lower limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station;
calculating the grading number of the active sampling interval of each new energy station in the leading new energy station set D through a formula (4), and dividing the active sampling interval into active grading intervals with equal interval length according to the grading number;
Figure RE-GDA0002897641020000041
in the formula, k d The step number delta of the active sampling interval of the new energy station D in the new energy station set D is led to be dominant at the moment t p For a set power-step parameter, P d.u 、P d.d The active power sampling interval upper limit and the active power sampling interval lower limit of the new energy station D in the new energy station set D at the moment t are respectively set as lambda d Gathering new energy in D for leading new energy stationA comprehensive influence factor of the station d on the transient stability of the power grid;
and (3) performing exhaustive combination in any active grading interval from the active grading intervals of all the new energy stations in the leading new energy station set D by adopting an enumeration method, and taking a generated combination set as a new energy station active grading interval combination set C.
As a preferred embodiment, in step SS4, the method for calculating the transient stability margin of the expected fault in the grid operating state corresponding to each combination in the new energy station active power staging interval combination set C to obtain the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected fault includes the following steps:
calculating the ranking indexes of all combinations in a new energy station active grading interval combination set C by adopting a following formula (5), calculating the transient stability margin under an expected fault according to the sequence of the ranking indexes of all combinations in the new energy station active grading interval combination set C from large to small, calculating the transient stability margin under the expected fault aiming at the corresponding power grid operation state until the transient stability margin under a plurality of combinations with continuous sequence numbers is not less than the margin fixed value of transient stability out-of-limit, wherein the ratio of the maximum value to the minimum value of the ranking indexes in the combinations is more than a set parameter which is more than 1, stopping the generation of the power grid operation state and the transient stability margin calculation corresponding to the rest combinations, and taking the set formed by the combinations in the new energy station active grading interval combination set C with the transient stability margin less than the fixed value of the transient stability out-of-limit as U;
s c ＝∑ d∈D [λ d (P d.c -P d.0 )]，c∈C (5)
in the formula, s c A ranking index of a combination C in a combination set C of active grading intervals of the new energy station, P d.c The active expected value P of the active grading interval of the new energy station D in the D set of the leading new energy station corresponding to the combination C in the C d.0 And leading the active real-time planning value of the new energy station D in the new energy station set D at the moment t.
As a preferred embodiment, step SS4 further includes: and based on the power grid pre-thought operation state S, taking the active expected values of the active grading intervals of the new energy station stations in the combination as the active of the new energy station, and obtaining the power grid operation states corresponding to the combinations in the new energy station active grading interval combination set C through load flow calculation.
As a preferred embodiment, in step SS5, the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty of new energy generation is calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002710111340000061
in the formula, p ol Transient stability out-of-limit probability p for considering new energy power generation uncertainty at time t f To predict the probability of occurrence of a fault F at time t in a fault set F, U f To predict the out-of-limit combination set of transient stability margins under the fault F in the fault set F,
Figure BDA0002710111340000062
is U f Middle combination u f The corresponding combined probability.
The invention also provides a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation device for the uncertainty of new energy power generation, which comprises the following steps:
a transient stability quantification evaluation module to perform: performing quantitative assessment on the transient stability of each expected fault in an expected fault set F according to the expected running state S of the power grid at a set time t to obtain a transient stability key mode set M of each expected fault in the expected fault set F, a transient stability margin corresponding to each key mode in the transient stability key mode set M, and transient stability participation factors of each new energy station in the new energy station set N;
a leading new energy station determination module configured to perform: respectively calculating comprehensive influence factors of each new energy station in the new energy station set N under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F, and generating a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected fault;
the active power grading interval combination module of the new energy station is used for executing: aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F, respectively determining an active sampling interval of each new energy field station in the expected fault set D according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy field station on the transient state stability of the power grid in the leading new energy field station set D at the moment t, and generating a leading new energy field station active power grading interval combination set C in the leading new energy field station set D;
a transient stability out-of-limit combination determination module to perform: respectively calculating transient stability margins of the expected faults in the power grid operation state corresponding to each combination in the active power grading interval combination set C aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F to obtain a transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected faults;
a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation module to perform: and calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of the new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in the expected fault set F at the time t and the probability of each combination in the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected fault.
The invention achieves the following beneficial effects: firstly, the invention provides a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method for new energy power generation uncertainty, which comprises the steps of obtaining a transient stability key mode set M of each expected fault in an expected fault set F and a transient stability margin corresponding to each key mode in the transient stability key mode set M through carrying out transient stability quantitative evaluation under each expected fault in the expected fault set F, and transient stability participation factors of each new energy field station in a new energy field station set N, further calculating comprehensive influence factors of each new energy field station in the new energy field station set N under the expected fault on the transient stability of a power grid, generating a leading new energy field station set D associated with the expected fault, determining active sampling intervals of each new energy field station in the expected fault D, generating an active sublevel interval combination set C of each new energy field station in the leading new energy field station set D, and then calculating a stable stability fault under the power grid operation state corresponding to each combination in the sublevel combination set C The method comprises the steps of obtaining the tolerance, obtaining a transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected faults, greatly reducing the number of new energy stations participating in calculation, and calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in an expected fault set F at the moment t and the probability of each combination in the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected faults, so that the calculated amount is greatly reduced; secondly, the invention provides a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation device for uncertainty of new energy power generation, which determines an active sampling interval of the new energy field station for calculation according to the active confidence interval, the active real-time plan value and the comprehensive influence factor symbol of the new energy field station by executing a transient stability quantization evaluation module, a dominant new energy field station determination module, an active grading interval combination module of the new energy field station, a transient stability out-of-limit combination determination module and a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation module, reduces the active value range of the new energy field station, and grades the sampling interval by combining the comprehensive influence factor, thereby effectively reducing the number of combinations of the active grading intervals of the new energy field station and realizing the great reduction of a calculation scene; thirdly, the method can meet the real-time requirement of transient stability out-of-limit probability on-line calculation considering the uncertainty of new energy power generation.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method of new energy power generation uncertainty according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for more clearly illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
Example 1: as shown in fig. 1, the invention provides a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation method for new energy power generation uncertainty, which includes the following steps:
step 1: performing quantitative evaluation on the transient stability under each expected fault in an expected fault set F according to the expected running state S of the power grid at a set moment t to obtain transient stability key mode sets M of each expected fault in the F, transient stability margins corresponding to each key mode in the M and transient stability participation factors of each new energy station in a new energy station set N;
where M is a set of transient stability modes in which the difference between the transient stability margin and the minimum value of the transient stability margin in all the transient stability modes is smaller than a set value (typically set to 0.2).
The participation factor is larger than 0, which indicates that the active power of the new energy station is increased and the transient stability margin is reduced; and the participation factor is less than 0, which indicates that the active power of the new energy station is reduced and the transient stability margin is reduced.
Step 2: aiming at each expected fault in the F, respectively calculating a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station in the N under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid, and generating a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected fault;
wherein, the calculation formula of the comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station on the transient stability of the power grid under the expected fault is as follows:
λ n ＝∑ m∈M [λ m.n (1-η m ) α ]，n∈N (1)
in the formula of lambda n In order to predict the comprehensive influence factor, lambda, of the new energy station N in the N to the transient stability of the power grid under the fault m.n Is a transient stability participation factor, eta, of the new energy field station N in N under the M middle key mode M of the expected fault m The temporary state stability margin of the key mode M in the M with the expected fault is in the range of [ -1,1]And alpha is a set parameter, is greater than 0 and is usually set to be 2.
Generating a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected fault, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
removing the new energy station which does not satisfy the formula (2) under the expected fault from the new energy station set N, and taking the new energy station as D associated with the expected fault;
Figure RE-GDA0002897641020000081
where β is a set parameter, greater than 0, less than 1, and typically set to 0.5.
Respectively replacing the new energy stations in D meeting the formula (3) with a leading new energy equivalent station, updating D, taking the average value of the comprehensive influence factors of the leading new energy station represented by the leading new energy equivalent station on the transient stability of the power grid as the comprehensive influence factor of the transient stability of the power grid,
Figure RE-GDA0002897641020000091
where ε is a set parameter, greater than 0, and usually set at 0.05.
And step 3: aiming at each expected fault in the F, respectively determining an active sampling interval of each new energy station in the D under the expected fault according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station on the transient stability of a power grid at the time of t, and generating an active grading interval combination set C of each new energy station in the D;
for the new energy equivalent station in the step D, generating an active probability distribution density function of the new energy equivalent station according to the active probability distribution density function of each new energy station represented by the new energy equivalent station, and taking the sum of active real-time plan values of each new energy station represented by the new energy equivalent station as the active real-time plan value of the new energy equivalent station;
the method comprises the following steps of determining active sampling intervals of all new energy field stations in D under an expected fault, and generating an active grading interval combination set C of all new energy field stations in D, wherein the active sampling intervals of all new energy field stations in D under the expected fault comprise the following steps:
determining an active confidence interval of each new energy station at the time t D according to a set confidence level parameter (usually set to be 0.95) and an active probability distribution density function of each new energy station at the time t D;
aiming at the new energy station with the comprehensive influence factor on the transient stability of the power grid larger than 0 in the step D, taking the active real-time plan value at the moment t as the lower limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station, and taking the upper limit of the active confidence interval at the moment t as the upper limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station; aiming at the new energy station with the comprehensive influence factor on the transient stability of the power grid smaller than 0 in the step D, taking the active real-time planned value at the moment t as the upper limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station and taking the lower limit of the active confidence interval at the moment t as the lower limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station;
calculating the grading number of the active sampling interval of each new energy station in the D through a formula (4), and dividing the active sampling interval into active grading intervals with equal interval length according to the grading number;
Figure RE-GDA0002897641020000101
in the formula, k d The number of the steps, delta, of the active sampling interval of the new energy station D at the time D p For a set power-step parameter, P d.u 、P d.d Respectively is the upper limit and the lower limit of an active sampling interval, lambda, of the new energy field station D in the time D of t d And D, a comprehensive influence factor of the new energy station D on the transient stability of the power grid.
And D, respectively carrying out exhaustive combination on any one of the active grading intervals of the new energy station in the D by adopting an enumeration method to form a set which is used as C.
And 4, step 4: respectively calculating the transient stability margin of the expected faults under the power grid operation state corresponding to each combination in the step C aiming at each expected fault in the step F to obtain a transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected faults;
calculating transient stability margins of expected faults under the power grid operation states corresponding to the combinations in the step C to obtain an out-of-limit combination set U of the transient stability margins under the expected faults, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
calculating the sequencing indexes of all combinations in the C by adopting a formula (5), calculating the transient stability margins under expected faults according to the sequence of the sequencing indexes of all combinations in the C from large to small until the transient stability margins under a plurality of combinations with continuous sequence numbers are not less than the margin fixed value out of the transient stability limits and the ratio of the maximum value to the minimum value of the sequencing indexes in the combinations is more than a set parameter which is more than 1 (usually set as 1.2), stopping the generation of the power grid running states and the calculation of the transient stability margins corresponding to the rest combinations, and taking the set formed by the combinations in the C with the transient stability margins less than the margin fixed value out of the transient stability limits as U;
s c ＝∑ d∈D [λ d (P d.c -P d.0 )]，c∈C (5)
in the formula s c Is the ranking index of combination C in C, P d.c Is a combination of C pairs in CThe active expected value, P, of the active grading interval of the new energy station D in the corresponding D d.0 And the real-time active planning value of the new energy source station D at the time D is obtained.
And based on the S, taking the active expected value of the active grading interval of each new energy station in the combination as the active of the new energy station, and obtaining the power grid operation state corresponding to each combination in the C through load flow calculation.
All new energy stations participating in primary frequency modulation, frequency control model parameters of non-new energy power plants, load frequency characteristic model parameters and direct current system frequency modulation strategies in a power grid at the moment t are considered in load flow calculation;
and C, calculating the transient stability margin under the expected fault according to the sequence of the combination sorting indexes in C from large to small according to the corresponding power grid running state, and increasing the calculation speed by adopting a multi-combination parallel processing mode according to the sorting of the combinations and the combination with a plurality of continuous serial numbers.
And 5: and calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of the new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in the time F and the probability of each combination in the U under the expected fault.
The calculation formula of the transient stability out-of-limit probability of the new energy power generation uncertainty is as follows:
Figure BDA0002710111340000131
in the formula, p ol Transient stability out-of-limit probability p for considering new energy power generation uncertainty at time t f Is the probability of the expected failure F in F occurring at time t, U f For the out-of-limit combination set of the temporary state stability margin under the expected failure F in F,
Figure BDA0002710111340000132
is U f Middle combination u f The corresponding combined probability.
The combination probability is the product of the cumulative probabilities corresponding to the active power grading intervals of all the new energy station stations in the combination D.
Example 2: the invention provides a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation device for new energy power generation uncertainty, which comprises the following steps:
a transient stability quantification evaluation module to perform: performing quantitative evaluation on the transient stability of each expected fault in an expected fault set F according to the expected operation state S of the power grid at a set moment t to obtain transient stability key mode sets M of each expected fault in the F, transient stability margins corresponding to each key mode in the M and transient stability participation factors of each new energy station in a new energy station set N;
a lead new energy site determination module to perform: aiming at each expected fault in the F, respectively calculating a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station in the N under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid, and generating a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected fault;
the active power grading interval combination module of the new energy station is used for executing: aiming at each expected fault in the F, respectively determining an active sampling interval of each new energy station in the D under the expected fault according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station on the transient stability of the power grid at the t moment D, and generating a combined set C of active grading intervals of each new energy station in the D;
a transient stability out-of-limit combination determination module to perform: respectively calculating the transient stability margin of the expected faults in the power grid running state corresponding to each combination in the step C aiming at each expected fault in the step F to obtain an out-of-limit combination set U of the transient stability margin under the expected faults;
a transient stability out-of-limit probability calculation module to perform: and calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of the new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in the time F and the probability of each combination in the U under the expected fault.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are included in the scope of the claims of the present invention which are filed in the application.

Claims (9)

1. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of the uncertainty of new energy power generation is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step SS 1: performing transient stability quantitative evaluation under each expected fault in an expected fault set F aiming at a power grid expected running state S at a set time t to obtain a transient stability key mode set M of each expected fault in the expected fault set F, a transient stability margin corresponding to each key mode in the transient stability key mode set M, and a transient stability participation factor of each new energy station in the new energy station set N;
step SS 2: respectively calculating comprehensive influence factors of each new energy station in the new energy station set N under the expected faults on the transient stability of the power grid aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F, and generating a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected faults;
step SS 3: aiming at each expected fault in an expected fault set F, respectively determining an active sampling interval of each new energy station in D under the expected fault according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station on the transient stability of a power grid in a leading new energy station set D at the time t, and generating a leading new energy station active grading interval combination set C in the new energy station set D;
step SS 4: respectively calculating transient stability margins of the expected faults in the power grid running state corresponding to each combination in the active power step interval combination set C aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F to obtain an out-of-limit transient stability margin combination set U under the expected faults;
step SS 5: calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of the new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in the expected fault set F at the time t and the probability of each combination in the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected fault;
in the step SS3, determining active sampling intervals of each new energy site in the leading new energy site set D under an expected fault, and generating an active staging interval combination set C of each new energy site in the leading new energy site set D, includes the following steps:
determining an active confidence interval of each new energy station in the new energy station set D at the time t according to the set confidence level parameter and the active probability distribution density function of each new energy station in the leading new energy station set D at the time t;
aiming at a new energy station with a comprehensive influence factor on the transient stability of the power grid in a leading new energy station set D larger than 0, taking an active real-time plan value at the time t as the lower limit of an active sampling interval and taking the upper limit of an active confidence interval at the time t as the upper limit of the active sampling interval; aiming at a new energy station with a comprehensive influence factor smaller than 0 on the transient stability of the power grid in the leading new energy station set D, taking an active real-time plan value at the time t as an upper limit of an active sampling interval of the new energy station, and taking a lower limit of an active confidence interval at the time t as a lower limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station;
calculating the grading number of the active sampling interval of each new energy station in the leading new energy station set D through a formula (4), and dividing the active sampling interval into active grading intervals with equal interval length according to the grading number;
Figure FDA0003708290160000021
in the formula, k d The step number delta of the active sampling interval of the new energy field station D in the new energy field station set D is led at the moment t p For a set power-step parameter, P d.u 、P d.d Respectively leading the upper limit and the lower limit of an active sampling interval, lambda, of the new energy station D in the new energy station set D at the moment t d Leading a comprehensive influence factor of a new energy station D in the new energy station set D on the transient stability of the power grid;
and performing exhaustive combination on any one active grading interval from the active grading intervals of all the new energy stations in the leading new energy station set D by adopting an enumeration method, and taking a set formed by the generated combinations as a new energy station active grading interval combination set C.
2. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty in new energy power generation according to claim 1, wherein the step SS1 specifically comprises: the transient stability critical mode set M in the expected fault set F is a set of transient stability modes in which the difference between the transient stability margin and the minimum value of the transient stability margins in all the transient stability modes is smaller than a set value.
3. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty of new energy power generation according to claim 1, wherein the step SS2 specifically comprises:
the calculation formula of the comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station in the new energy station set N on the transient stability of the power grid under the expected fault is as follows:
λ n ＝∑ m∈M [λ m.n (1-η m ) α ]，n∈N (1)
in the formula, λ n The comprehensive influence factor, lambda, of the new energy station N in the new energy station set N on the transient stability of the power grid under the expected fault condition m.n A transient stability participation factor, eta, of the new energy station N in the new energy station set N under the key mode M in the transient stability key mode set M for the expected fault m The transient stability margin of the key mode M in the transient stability key mode set M for the expected fault is in the range of [ -1,1]And alpha is a set parameter and is larger than 0.
4. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty of new energy power generation according to claim 3, wherein said step SS2 further comprises:
the method for generating the leading new energy station set D associated with the expected failure comprises the following steps: after the new energy station which does not satisfy the following formula (2) under the expected fault is removed from the new energy station set N, the new energy station is taken as a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected fault;
Figure FDA0003708290160000031
wherein beta is a set parameter and is larger than 0 and smaller than 1.
5. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty of new energy power generation according to claim 4, wherein the step SS2 further comprises:
respectively replacing new energy stations in a leading new energy station set D meeting the following formula (3) with a leading new energy equivalent station, updating the leading new energy station set D, taking the average value of the comprehensive influence factors of the leading new energy station represented by the leading new energy equivalent station on the transient stability of the power grid as the comprehensive influence factor of the average value on the transient stability of the power grid,
Figure FDA0003708290160000041
in the formula, epsilon is a set parameter and is more than 0; lambda [ alpha ] i The comprehensive influence factor of the leading new energy station i in the leading new energy station set D under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid is obtained; lambda j The comprehensive influence factor of the leading new energy station j in the leading new energy station set D under the expected fault on the transient stability of the power grid is obtained; lambda [ alpha ] d And the comprehensive influence factor of the leading new energy station D in the leading new energy station set D to the transient stability of the power grid under the expected fault is obtained.
6. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty in new energy power generation according to claim 1, wherein in step SS4, a transient stability margin of an expected fault in a grid operating state corresponding to each combination in a new energy station active power staging interval combination set C is calculated to obtain a transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected fault, and specifically includes the following steps:
calculating the ranking indexes of all combinations in a new energy station active grading interval combination set C by adopting a following formula (5), calculating the transient stability margin under expected faults according to the sequence of the ranking indexes of all combinations in the new energy station active grading interval combination set C from large to small until the transient stability margin under a plurality of combinations with continuous sequence numbers is not less than the margin fixed value of transient stability out-of-limit, wherein the ratio of the maximum value to the minimum value of the ranking indexes in the combinations is more than a set parameter, the set parameter is more than 1, stopping the generation of the power grid operation state and the transient stability margin calculation corresponding to the rest combinations, and taking the set formed by the combinations in the new energy station active grading interval combination set C with the transient stability margin less than the margin fixed value of the transient stability out-of-limit as U;
s c ＝∑ d∈D [λ d (P d.c -P d.0 )]，c∈C (5)
in the formula s c The ranking index, P, of the combination C in the active grading interval combination set C of the new energy station d.c The active expected value P of the active grading interval of the new energy station D in the leading new energy station set D corresponding to the combination C in the C d.0 And leading the active real-time planning value of the new energy station D in the new energy station set D at the moment t.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein step SS4 further comprises: and based on the expected operation state S of the power grid, taking the active expected value of the active grading interval of each new energy station in the combination as the active of the new energy station, and obtaining the operation state of the power grid corresponding to each combination in the active grading interval combination set C of the new energy station through load flow calculation.
8. The method for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty of new energy power generation according to claim 1, wherein in step SS5, the formula for calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability of uncertainty of new energy power generation is as follows:
Figure FDA0003708290160000051
in the formula, p ol Transient stability out-of-limit probability p for considering new energy power generation uncertainty at time t f To predict the probability of occurrence of the fault F at time t in the fault set F, U f To predict the out-of-limit combination set of transient stability margins under the fault F in the fault set F,
Figure FDA0003708290160000052
is U f Middle combination u f The corresponding combined probability.
9. Transient stability probability-crossing calculation device for new energy power generation uncertainty is characterized by comprising:
a transient stability quantification evaluation module to perform: performing quantitative assessment on the transient stability of each expected fault in an expected fault set F according to the expected running state S of the power grid at a set time t to obtain a transient stability key mode set M of each expected fault in the expected fault set F, a transient stability margin corresponding to each key mode in the transient stability key mode set M, and transient stability participation factors of each new energy station in the new energy station set N;
a lead new energy site determination module to perform: respectively calculating comprehensive influence factors of each new energy station in the new energy station set N under the expected faults on the transient stability of the power grid aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F, and generating a leading new energy station set D associated with the expected faults;
the active power grading interval combination module of the new energy station is used for executing: aiming at each expected fault in an expected fault set F, respectively determining an active sampling interval of each new energy station in D under the expected fault according to an active probability distribution density function, an active real-time plan value and a comprehensive influence factor of each new energy station on the transient stability of a power grid in a leading new energy station set D at the time t, and generating a leading new energy station active grading interval combination set C in the new energy station set D;
a transient stability out-of-limit combination determination module to perform: respectively calculating transient stability margins of the expected faults in the power grid running state corresponding to each combination in the active power step interval combination set C aiming at each expected fault in the expected fault set F to obtain an out-of-limit transient stability margin combination set U under the expected faults;
a transient stability violation probability calculation module to perform: calculating the transient stability out-of-limit probability considering the uncertainty of the new energy power generation according to the occurrence probability of each expected fault in the expected fault set F at the time t and the probability of each combination in the transient stability margin out-of-limit combination set U under the expected fault;
the method comprises the following steps of determining active sampling intervals of all new energy stations in a leading new energy station set D under an expected fault, and generating a combination set C of active grading intervals of all new energy stations in the leading new energy station set D, wherein the combination set C comprises the following steps:
determining an active confidence interval of each new energy station in the new energy station set D at the time t according to the set confidence level parameter and the active probability distribution density function of each new energy station in the leading new energy station set D at the time t;
aiming at a new energy station with a comprehensive influence factor on the transient stability of the power grid in a leading new energy station set D larger than 0, taking an active real-time plan value at the moment t as the lower limit of an active sampling interval and taking the upper limit of an active confidence interval at the moment t as the upper limit of the active sampling interval; aiming at a new energy station with a comprehensive influence factor smaller than 0 on the transient stability of the power grid in a leading new energy station set D, taking an active real-time plan value at the moment t as an upper limit of an active sampling interval of the new energy station, and taking a lower limit of an active confidence interval at the moment t as a lower limit of the active sampling interval of the new energy station;
calculating the grading number of the active sampling interval of each new energy station in the leading new energy station set D through a formula (4), and dividing the active sampling interval into active grading intervals with equal interval length according to the grading number;
Figure FDA0003708290160000061
in the formula, k d The step number delta of the active sampling interval of the new energy field station D in the new energy field station set D is led at the moment t p For a set power-step parameter, P d.u 、P d.d Respectively leading the upper limit and the lower limit of an active sampling interval, lambda, of the new energy station D in the new energy station set D at the moment t d Leading a comprehensive influence factor of a new energy station D in the new energy station set D on the transient stability of the power grid;
and performing exhaustive combination on any one active grading interval from the active grading intervals of all the new energy stations in the leading new energy station set D by adopting an enumeration method, and taking a set formed by the generated combinations as a new energy station active grading interval combination set C.
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