CN109447441A - A kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit - Google Patents
A kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit, generate forecast failure based on power grid current operating conditions and carry out Transient Stability Evaluation, identify the corresponding transient state stable key transmission cross-section of the failure；Each new energy power plant power output interval probability is obtained by short-term wind-force, intensity of illumination prediction result, carries out power interval and its probability that probabilistic load flow obtains key transmission cross-section；Increase new energy unit output and assess the severity of failure, by the cumulative risk indicator as failure of section power section operation risk.If the risk indicator of failure is greater than threshold value, preferentially taking under the premise of preferentially guaranteeing new energy power plant power output reduces conventional power unit power output measure, as that cannot meet the requirements, guarantees that risk indicator is less than threshold value by way of limitation new energy power plant power output.The method of the present invention can comprehensively reflect the service condition of system and potential risk and tender spots in discovery system, play the operation potentiality of power grid.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit, belong to power train
System field of automation technology.
Background technique
The new cleaning fuels such as wind-powered electricity generation, photovoltaic greatly develop the discharge that can reduce greenhouse gases, save fossil energy
Consumption, but due to new energy power output uncertainty and intermittence, large-scale grid connection brings huge to electric power netting safe running
Big challenge.Consider that new energy probabilistic methods of risk assessment of contributing can comprehensively reflect the service condition of system, and
It was found that potential risk and tender spots in system, the operation potentiality of power grid are further played by preventing pre-control.
Currently, by consider new energy contribute temporal characteristics short-term new energy power forecasting method can provide it is several can
The power output scene of energy and the new energy power output probability of each scene.On quickly decoupling tide model or sensitivity analysis technique basis
On, the probability-distribution function of each state variable can be obtained using the probabilistic load flow of Cumulants method and calculating speed can
To meet application on site requirement, commented comprehensively by the risk indicators such as the out-of-limit probability of each state variable and generation severity of consequence
Estimate system risk.However, the above method is only capable of assessing the static security risk of system, the risk of transient stability is commented
Estimate it needs to be determined that running mode data and carry out time-domain-simulation, if system number containing wind power plant be M, what each wind power plant was estimated
Power output section number is K, then not knowing number of scenes is KMEven if it is temporary only to select a point to carry out each uncertain scene
State stability analysis calculates, and calculation amount is also unable to satisfy the requirement of online risk assessment.
EEAC extended equal area criterion quantitative analysis method can provide nargin and steady on the basis of failure time-domain-simulation
Mould-fixed Clustering information, the stable mode message reflection physical essence of angle stability, a certain angle stability mode correspond to one
A key sections.A kind of patent " identification method of transient state stable key transmission cross-section based on EEAC " (ZL
201611048235.3) the stable mode Clustering information provided based on EEAC utilizes each line in transient stability emulation dynamic process
The power swing amplitude on road, which screens candidate section composition branch, can accurately identify the corresponding pass with the mode by topology search
Key section.Method by finding key sections, can be by the section function of the power of extra-high dimension injection quantity space dimensionality reduction to low-dimensional
Rate space, and then each new energy power plant possible magnanimity of power output is not known into scene composition and is reduced to limited section power sky
Between scene, can satisfy online transient safe and stable risk assessment and prevention and control to effective requirement.
Summary of the invention
Purpose: in order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, it is uncertain that the present invention provides a kind of consideration new energy unit
The transient stability methods of risk assessment of property, potential risk and tender spots that can in time in discovery system, can satisfy and answer online
With needs.
Technical solution: in order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention are as follows:
A kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit, includes the following steps:
Step 1: model parameter and current operating status based on power grid generate power flow files, stablize file and anticipation event
Hinder set F1, set F1Middle failure sum is N, sets currently processed failure serial number K=1, enters step 2；
Step 2: for set F1Middle k-th failure carries out transient stability quantization according to EEAC extended equal area criterion and comments
Estimate, such as its transient rotor angle stability nargin ηkLess than or equal to transient rotor angle stability nargin threshold value ηmin, then according to the master of EEAC offer
It leads complementation group unit and identifies the corresponding transient state stable key transmission cross-section of the failure；Otherwise, 9 are entered step；
Step 3: setting current time as th, subsequent time t is obtained by short-term wind-force, intensity of illumination prediction resulth+1Each new energy
Source power plant may contribute the probability C in sectionhi,；It enablesRepresent i-th of prediction
New energy power plant is in th+1The possibility power output section at moment, shares KXA section, whereinFor j-th of section, Respectively j-th of section power output lower limit value and power output upper limit value, j-th of section power output+1 section of upper limit value and jth go out
Power lower limit value is equal, then i-th of new energy power plant power output is in sectionProbability be Chi,jIfFor the power output intermediate value of the section bound, then it is believed that i-th of new energy power plant power output is's
Power output interval probability is Chi,j；
Step 4: sensitivity analysis is carried out to the key transmission cross-section of failure K identification, section power sensitivity coefficient is big
It is determined as related new energy power plant in the new energy power plant of threshold value, the section power sensitivity system based on related new energy power plant
Number and power output interval probability carry out probabilistic load flow, obtain power capability section and its probability [(Δ of key transmission cross-section
PLK.1,ChK.1),(ΔPLK.2,ChK.2),…(ΔPLK.M,ChK.M)], wherein Δ PLK.i,ChK.iRespectively i-th of section power area
Between intermediate value and power interval intermediate value probability, corresponding transmission cross-section power interval isFor area
Between lower limit of the power value and upper limit of the power value, M be transmission cross-section power interval sum；
Step 5: factor size being participated according to the leading complementation group unit that EEAC is provided, calculates separately key transmission cross-section phase
The Universal electric distance in new energy power plant bus and Critical Group and remaining group between all generator bus is closed, by related new energy
Source power plant is ranked up according to Universal electric apart from ascending sequence；It is obtained later by ultra-short term generation schedule and load prediction
Conventional power unit and load power are obtained, increases new energy power plant power output in order on this basis until i-th key transmission cross-section
Power reaches the section power section intermediate value, Transient Stability Evaluation is carried out to failure K based on the method for operation after adjustment, according to failure
The severity S of loss load total amount assessment failure afterwardseK.i, thus to obtain the operation risk I in the section power sectionrK.i=SeK.i*
ChK.i；It repeats the above process until section power section quantity reaches maximum value M, by the cumulative work of the risk in each section power section
For the risk indicator of failure K
Step 6: judging the risk indicator I of failure KrKWhether preassigned threshold value I is greater thanrK.th, such as larger than then turn
Enter step 7, is otherwise transferred to step 9；
Step 7: carrying out on-line operation risk-aversion control under the premise of preferentially guaranteeing new energy power plant power output；According to
EEAC provide Critical Group unit participate in factor size, meet system needs be rotated up and down spare capacity constraint under, gradually
The operation risk assessment that Critical Group conventional power unit contributes and carries out each section power section to failure K is reduced, until the wind of failure K
Dangerous index IrKLess than threshold value IrK.th, export conventional power unit and drop power output measure, enter step 9；Such as all Critical Group routine machines
The power output lower limit that group power output is down to permission is still unable to satisfy IrK< IrK.th, then 8 are entered step；
Step 8: the risk indicator I ' of failure K after step 7 reduces conventional power unit power outputrKOn the basis of, it is new by limiting
The mode of energy power plant power output guarantees that risk indicator is less than threshold value；Power capability section and its fortune based on key transmission cross-section
Row risk [(Δ PLK.1,IrK.1),(ΔPLK.2,IrK.2),…(ΔPLK.M,IrK.M)], by calculating formulaAt
Vertical section power section quantity maximum value M', wherein M'< M, obtains maximum allowable section power increment Delta PLK.M', output should
Power limit and conventional power unit drop power output measure enter step 9 as Control Measure；
Step 9:K=K+1 judges K≤N, reenters step 2 in this way, otherwise by the faulty Control Measure of institute
It is incorporated as the Control Measure of final output.
Preferably, the current time thWith subsequent time th+1Between be spaced 15min.
Preferably, the leading complementation group unit provided in the step 5 according to EEAC participates in factor size to pass
Key transmission cross-section correlation new energy power plant sort method is as follows:
5.1.1: institute in related new energy power plant bus and Critical Group and remaining group is calculated separately using formula (1) and (2)
There is the Universal electric distance between generator bus；Wherein, ajThe generator j transient rotor angle stability provided for EEAC participate in because
Son, xi.jFor the electrical distance between generator j bus and related new energy power plant bus i, S is generator number of units in Critical Group,
N is generator number of units in remaining group；
5.1.2: if XKN.i> XKS.i+ Δ X, Δ X are electrical distance threshold value, then it is critical to judge that new energy power plant i belongs to
Group；If XKS.i> XKN.i+ Δ X then judges that new energy power plant i belongs to remaining group；In Critical Group and remaining group respectively according to
XKS.iAnd XKN.iSize is ranked up new energy power plant, obtains related new energy power plant sequencing queue.
Preferably, section power is adjusted to calculative section power section intermediate value side in the step 5
Method is as follows:
5.2.1: conventional power unit and load power are adjusted to ultra-short term generation schedule and predicted load；
5.2.2: going out to try hard to keep by increasing Critical Group new energy power plant power output in order and reducing remaining group's new energy power plant
Power-balance is demonstrate,proved, such as remaining group's new energy power plant's undercapacity is to balance power, then by subtracting according to participation factor size order
Few remainder group's conventional power unit goes out dynamic balance, until reaching i-th of section power section intermediate value.
Preferably, the severity method of failure is assessed such as according to loss load total amount after failure in the step 5
Under:
5.3.1 consider that second defence line security control device and three lines of defence low-frequency and low-voltage subtract in the calculating of failure time-domain-simulation
It carries, disconnection device parsing action modeling, by statistics, failure directly causes load loss, second and third road defence line automatic safety device is cut
Severity index except loss load total amount, as failure.
Preferably, meet the requirements failure risk index by reducing conventional power unit power output in the step 7
Method is as follows:
7.1 participate in factor size according to the Critical Group unit that EEAC is provided, and preferentially reduce according to the big unit of the factor is participated in
Principle, gradually reduce Critical Group conventional power unit and contribute and carry out the operation risk assessment in each section power section to failure K,
Until failure risk index is met the requirements.
The utility model has the advantages that a kind of probabilistic transient stability risk assessment side of consideration new energy unit provided by the invention
Method generates forecast failure collection based on power grid current operating conditions and carries out Transient Stability Evaluation, is only less than to transient stability margin
Threshold value failure carries out risk assessment to meet online calculating speed requirement；On short-term new energy power plant power output fundamentals of forecasting,
Probabilistic load flow is carried out using sensitivity coefficient of the related new energy power plant power output to section power and further speeds up calculating speed
Degree；The severity that size order increases new energy unit output and assesses failure is influenced according on security margin, thus may be used
To obtain relatively conservative section power section operation risk；Reduction is taken under the premise of preferentially guaranteeing new energy power plant power output
Conventional power unit power output measure can satisfy actual motion requirement.Using the method for the present invention, it can comprehensively reflect the operation of system
Condition and potential risk and tender spots in discovery system, play the operation potentiality of power grid.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further explained with reference to the accompanying drawing.
A kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit is based on power grid current operating conditions
It generates forecast failure and carries out Transient Stability Evaluation, identify that the failure is corresponding temporarily according to the leading complementation group unit that EEAC is provided
State stablizes key transmission cross-section；Each new energy power plant power output interval probability is obtained by short-term wind-force, intensity of illumination prediction result,
Power interval and its probability that probabilistic load flow obtains key transmission cross-section are carried out on the basis of this；According to security margin
It influences size order to increase new energy unit output and assess the severity of failure, it is possible thereby to obtain relatively conservative section function
Rate section operation risk, by the cumulative risk indicator as failure of section power section operation risk.Such as the risk indicator of failure
Greater than threshold value, preferentially taking under the premise of preferentially guaranteeing new energy power plant power output reduces conventional power unit power output measure, if not
It is able to satisfy requirement and then guarantees that risk indicator is less than threshold value by way of limitation new energy power plant power output.As shown in Figure 1, it has
Steps are as follows for body:
Step 1: model parameter and current operating status based on power grid generate power flow files, stablize file and anticipation event
Hinder set F1, set F1Middle failure sum is N, sets currently processed failure serial number K=1, enters step 2；
Step 2: for set F1Middle k-th failure carries out transient stability quantization according to EEAC extended equal area criterion and comments
Estimate, such as its transient rotor angle stability nargin ηkLess than or equal to transient rotor angle stability nargin threshold value ηmin, then according to the master of EEAC offer
It leads complementation group unit and identifies the corresponding transient state stable key transmission cross-section of the failure；Otherwise, 9 are entered step；
Step 3: setting current time as th, subsequent time t is obtained by short-term wind-force, intensity of illumination prediction resulth+1(usually
After 15min) each new energy power plant may contribute the probability C in sectionhi,j；
It enablesI-th of new energy power plant of prediction is represented in th+1Moment
May contribute section, share KXA section, whereinFor j-th of section,Respectively j-th of section goes out
Power lower limit value and power output upper limit value, j-th section power output upper limit value is equal with+1 section power output lower limit value of jth, then i-th newly
Energy power plant contributes in sectionProbability be Chi,jIfFor going out for the section bound
Power intermediate value, then it is believed that i-th of new energy power plant power output isPower output interval probability be approximately Chi,j；
Step 4: sensitivity analysis is carried out to the key transmission cross-section of failure K identification, section power sensitivity coefficient is big
It is determined as related new energy power plant in the new energy power plant of threshold value, the section power sensitivity system based on related new energy power plant
Number and power output interval probability carry out probabilistic load flow, obtain power capability section and its probability [(Δ of key transmission cross-section
PLK.1,ChK.1),(ΔPLK.2,ChK.2),…(ΔPLK.M,ChK.M)], wherein Δ PLK.i,ChK.iRespectively i-th of section power area
Between intermediate value (increment on current section power level) and power interval intermediate value probability, corresponding transmission cross-section power interval is For section lower limit of the power value and upper limit of the power value, M is transmission cross-section power interval sum；
Step 5: factor size being participated according to the leading complementation group unit that EEAC is provided, calculates separately key transmission cross-section phase
The Universal electric distance in new energy power plant bus and Critical Group and remaining group between all generator bus is closed, by related new energy
Source power plant is ranked up according to Universal electric apart from ascending sequence.It is obtained later by ultra-short term generation schedule and load prediction
Conventional power unit and load power are obtained, increases new energy power plant power output in order on this basis until i-th key transmission cross-section
Power reaches the section power section intermediate value, Transient Stability Evaluation is carried out to failure K based on the method for operation after adjustment, according to failure
The severity S of loss load total amount assessment failure afterwardseK.i, thus to obtain the operation risk I in the section power sectionrK.i=SeK.i*
ChK.i.It repeats the above process until section power section quantity reaches maximum value M, by the cumulative work of the risk in each section power section
For the risk indicator of failure K
Wherein, the leading complementation group unit provided according to EEAC participates in factor size to key transmission cross-section correlation new energy
Power plant's sort method is as follows:
5.1.1: institute in related new energy power plant bus and Critical Group and remaining group is calculated separately using formula (1) and (2)
There is the Universal electric distance between generator bus.Wherein, ajThe generator j transient rotor angle stability provided for EEAC participate in because
Son, xi.jFor the electrical distance between generator j bus and related new energy power plant bus i, S is generator number of units in Critical Group,
N is generator number of units in remaining group.
5.1.2: if XKN.i> XKS.i+ Δ X (Δ X is electrical distance threshold value), then judge that new energy power plant i belongs to and face
Boundary group；If XKS.i> XKN.i+ Δ X then judges that new energy power plant i belongs to remaining group.In Critical Group and remaining group respectively according to
XKS.iAnd XKN.iSize is ranked up new energy power plant, obtains related new energy power plant sequencing queue.
Section power is adjusted as follows to calculative section power section median method:
5.2.1: conventional power unit and load power are adjusted to ultra-short term generation schedule and predicted load；
5.2.2: going out to try hard to keep by increasing Critical Group new energy power plant power output in order and reducing remaining group's new energy power plant
Power-balance is demonstrate,proved, such as remaining group's new energy power plant's undercapacity is to balance power, then by subtracting according to participation factor size order
Few remainder group's conventional power unit goes out dynamic balance, until reaching i-th of section power section intermediate value.
It is as follows according to the severity method for losing load total amount assessment failure after failure:
5.3.1 consider that second defence line security control device and three lines of defence low-frequency and low-voltage subtract in the calculating of failure time-domain-simulation
The modeling of the device actions such as load, off-the-line directly causes load loss, second and third road defence line automatic safety device by counting failure
The loss load total amount such as excision, the severity index as failure.
Step 6: judging the risk indicator I of failure KrKWhether preassigned threshold value I is greater thanrK.th, such as larger than then turn
Enter step 7, is otherwise transferred to step 9；
Step 7: carrying out on-line operation risk-aversion control under the premise of preferentially guaranteeing new energy power plant power output first.Root
According to EEAC provide Critical Group unit participate in factor size, meet system needs be rotated up and down spare capacity constraint under, by
Step reduces the operation risk assessment that Critical Group conventional power unit contributes and carries out each section power section to failure K, until failure K
Risk indicator IrKLess than threshold value IrK.th, export conventional power unit and drop power output measure, enter step 9；Such as all Critical Group routine machines
The power output lower limit that group power output is down to permission is still unable to satisfy IrK< IrK.th, then 8 are entered step；
It is wherein as follows by reducing the method that conventional power unit power output meets the requirements failure risk index:
Factor size is participated according to the Critical Group unit that EEAC is provided, the original preferentially reduced according to the big unit of the participation factor
Then, the operation risk assessment that Critical Group conventional power unit contributes and carries out each section power section to failure K is gradually reduced, until therefore
Barrier risk indicator is met the requirements.
Step 8: the risk indicator I ' of failure K after step 7 reduces conventional power unit power outputrKOn the basis of, it is new by limiting
The mode of energy power plant power output guarantees that risk indicator is less than threshold value；Power capability section and its fortune based on key transmission cross-section
Row risk [(Δ PLK.1,IrK.1),(ΔPLK.2,IrK.2),…(ΔPLK.M,IrK.M)], by calculating formulaAt
Vertical section power section quantity maximum value M', wherein M'< M, obtains maximum allowable section power increment Delta PLK.M', output should
Power limit and conventional power unit drop power output measure enter step 9 as Control Measure；
Step 9:K=K+1 judges K≤N, reenters step 2 in this way, otherwise by the faulty Control Measure of institute
It is incorporated as the Control Measure of final output.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that: for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications are also answered
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit, it is characterised in that: including walking as follows
It is rapid:
Step 1: model parameter and current operating status based on power grid generate power flow files, stablize file and forecast failure collection
Close F1, set F1Middle failure sum is N, sets currently processed failure serial number K=1, enters step 2；
Step 2: for set F1Middle k-th failure carries out transient stability quantitative evaluation according to EEAC extended equal area criterion, such as
Its transient rotor angle stability nargin ηkLess than or equal to transient rotor angle stability nargin threshold value ηmin, then provided according to EEAC leading mutual
It mends group's unit and identifies the corresponding transient state stable key transmission cross-section of the failure；Otherwise, 9 are entered step；
Step 3: setting current time as th, subsequent time t is obtained by short-term wind-force, intensity of illumination prediction resulth+1Each new energy electricity
Factory may contribute the probability C in sectionhi,j；It enablesRepresent i-th of new energy of prediction
Source power plant is in th+1The possibility power output section at moment, shares KXA section, whereinFor j-th of section,
Respectively j-th of section power output lower limit value and power output upper limit value, j-th of section are contributed under+1 section power output of upper limit value and jth
Limit value is equal, then i-th of new energy power plant power output is in sectionProbability be Chi,jIf
For the power output intermediate value of the section bound, then it is believed that i-th of new energy power plant power output isPower output interval probability be
Chi,j；
Step 4: sensitivity analysis being carried out to the key transmission cross-section of failure K identification, section power sensitivity coefficient is greater than door
The new energy power plant of threshold value is determined as related new energy power plant, the section power sensitivity coefficient based on related new energy power plant and
Interval probability of contributing carries out probabilistic load flow, obtains power capability section and its probability [(the Δ P of key transmission cross-sectionLK.1,
ChK.1),(ΔPLK.2,ChK.2),…(ΔPLK.M,ChK.M)], wherein Δ PLK.i,ChK.iIn respectively i-th of section power section
Value and power interval intermediate value probability, corresponding transmission cross-section power interval are For section function
Rate lower limit value and upper limit of the power value, M are transmission cross-section power interval sum；
Step 5: factor size being participated according to the leading complementation group unit that EEAC is provided, it is related new to calculate separately key transmission cross-section
Universal electric distance in energy power plant bus and Critical Group and remaining group between all generator bus, by related new energy electricity
Factory is ranked up according to Universal electric apart from ascending sequence；It is obtained later by ultra-short term generation schedule and load prediction normal
Unit and load power are advised, increases new energy power plant power output in order on this basis until i-th of key transmission cross-section power
The section power section intermediate value is reached, Transient Stability Evaluation is carried out to failure K based on the method for operation after adjustment, according to damaging after failure
Lose the severity S of load total amount assessment failureeK.i, thus to obtain the operation risk I in the section power sectionrK.i=SeK.i*
ChK.i；It repeats the above process until section power section quantity reaches maximum value M, by the cumulative work of the risk in each section power section
For the risk indicator of failure K
Step 6: judging the risk indicator I of failure KrKWhether preassigned threshold value I is greater thanrK.th, such as larger than then it is transferred to step
7, otherwise it is transferred to step 9；
Step 7: carrying out on-line operation risk-aversion control under the premise of preferentially guaranteeing new energy power plant power output；It is mentioned according to EEAC
The Critical Group unit of confession participates in factor size, meet system needs be rotated up and down spare capacity constraint under, gradually reduce and face
Boundary's group's conventional power unit contributes and carries out the operation risk assessment in each section power section to failure K, until the risk indicator of failure K
IrKLess than threshold value IrK.th, export conventional power unit and drop power output measure, enter step 9；Such as all Critical Group conventional power unit power outputs are equal
The power output lower limit for being down to permission is still unable to satisfy IrK< IrK.th, then 8 are entered step；
Step 8: the risk indicator I ' of failure K after step 7 reduces conventional power unit power outputrKOn the basis of, by limiting new energy
The mode of power plant's power output guarantees that risk indicator is less than threshold value；Power capability section and its operation wind based on key transmission cross-section
Danger [(Δ PLK.1,IrK.1),(ΔPLK.2,IrK.2),…(ΔPLK.M,IrK.M)], by calculating formulaIt sets up
Section power section quantity maximum value M', wherein M'< M, obtains maximum allowable section power increment Delta PLK.M', export the power
Limit value and conventional power unit drop power output measure enter step 9 as Control Measure；
Step 9:K=K+1 judges K≤N, reenters step 2 in this way, otherwise merges the faulty Control Measure of institute
Control Measure as final output.
2. a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: the current time thWith subsequent time th+1Between be spaced 15min.
3. a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit according to claim 1,
Be characterized in that: the leading complementation group unit provided in the step 5 according to EEAC participates in factor size to key transmission cross-section phase
It is as follows to close new energy power plant sort method:
5.1.1: all hairs in related new energy power plant bus and Critical Group and remaining group are calculated separately using formula (1) and (2)
Universal electric distance between motor bus；Wherein, ajThe factor, x are participated in for the generator j transient rotor angle stability that EEAC is providedi.j
For the electrical distance between generator j bus and related new energy power plant bus i, S is generator number of units in Critical Group, and N is remaining
Generator number of units in lower group；
5.1.2: if XKN.i> XKS.i+ Δ X, Δ X are electrical distance threshold value, then judge that new energy power plant i belongs to Critical Group；
If XKS.i> XKN.i+ Δ X then judges that new energy power plant i belongs to remaining group；Respectively according to X in Critical Group and remaining groupKS.i
And XKN.iSize is ranked up new energy power plant, obtains related new energy power plant sequencing queue.
4. a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: adjusting section power in the step 5 as follows to calculative section power section median method:
5.2.1: conventional power unit and load power are adjusted to ultra-short term generation schedule and predicted load；
5.2.2: guaranteeing function by increasing Critical Group new energy power plant power output in order and reducing remaining group's new energy power plant power output
Rate balance, such as remaining group's new energy power plant's undercapacity is to balance power, then by according to participating in more than factor size order reduces
Lower group's conventional power unit goes out dynamic balance, until reaching i-th of section power section intermediate value.
5. a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: as follows according to the severity method for losing load total amount assessment failure after failure in the step 5:
5.3.1 consider in the calculating of failure time-domain-simulation second defence line security control device and three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding,
Disconnection device parsing action modeling directly causes load loss, second and third road defence line automatic safety device excision damage by counting failure
Lose load total amount, the severity index as failure.
6. a kind of probabilistic transient stability methods of risk assessment of consideration new energy unit according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: as follows by reducing the method that conventional power unit power output meets the requirements failure risk index in the step 7:
7.1 participate in factor size according to the Critical Group unit that EEAC is provided, the original preferentially reduced according to the big unit of the participation factor
Then, the operation risk assessment that Critical Group conventional power unit contributes and carries out each section power section to failure K is gradually reduced, until therefore
Barrier risk indicator is met the requirements.
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