CN115577560A - Method for evaluating running state and residual life of insulator of railway cantilever - Google Patents

Method for evaluating running state and residual life of insulator of railway cantilever Download PDF

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CN115577560A
CN115577560A CN202211397322.5A CN202211397322A CN115577560A CN 115577560 A CN115577560 A CN 115577560A CN 202211397322 A CN202211397322 A CN 202211397322A CN 115577560 A CN115577560 A CN 115577560A
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尚鹏辉
马雪娟
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Yangtze River Delta Research Institute of UESTC Huzhou
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of a railway cantilever insulator, which comprises the following steps: (1) constructing a hierarchical index system; (2) calculating the weight of each index; (3) establishing a judgment set; (4) calculating the membership degree of each index; (5) constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix; (6) fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; and (7) evaluating the overall state. The invention can comprehensively integrate factors to construct a judgment model and scientifically evaluate the running state of the insulator, can adjust according to the actual running condition of a specific line, and determines the service life end life by taking the actual condition of the line as a basis.

Description

Method for evaluating running state and residual life of insulator of railway cantilever
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of state evaluation of railway insulators, in particular to a method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of a railway cantilever insulator.
Technical Field
The insulator is a key component of the external insulation of the power transmission and distribution line, and once the insulator is aged or deteriorated in performance and cannot be found and replaced in time, the reliability of the power transmission and distribution line and the safe and stable operation of a railway train are seriously influenced. How to evaluate the operation state of insulators in the same batch of lines in batches so as to guide the making of a maintenance plan is the key point for ensuring the safe operation and maintenance of the lines. At present, the research is mostly focused on the state evaluation of the composite insulator, the state evaluation research for the porcelain insulator is less, and the on-site operation condition can be known, the operation state evaluation of the porcelain insulator needs to comprehensively consider various relevant indexes such as operation age factors, umbrella skirt glaze conditions, electrical factors, mechanical factors and the like, wherein the indexes are both qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes, and how to comprehensively synthesize the factors to construct a judgment model and scientifically evaluate the operation state of the insulator is one of the difficulties of the current research.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of a railway cantilever insulator, aiming at the problems that the state evaluation research of a porcelain insulator is less, and how to comprehensively synthesize the factors to construct a judgment model and scientifically evaluate the running state of the insulator.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of a railway cantilever insulator comprises the following steps:
(1) Constructing a hierarchical index system;
(2) Calculating the weight of each index;
(3) Establishing a judgment set;
(4) Calculating the membership degree of each index;
(5) Constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
(6) Fuzzy comprehensive judgment;
(7) And (4) evaluating the overall state.
Furthermore, the hierarchical index system constructed in the step (1) is a reasonable and comprehensive hierarchical evaluation system constructed by comprehensively considering the state index of the porcelain insulator, selecting characteristic evaluation factors based on three aspects of appearance factors, electrical factors and mechanical factors.
Further, the step (2) of calculating the weight of each index is to use an improved analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to establish a judgment matrix according to the priority relation of the importance of each evaluation index and calculate the constant weight of each index.
Further, in the step (3), a judgment set is established according to various evaluation results.
Further, in the step (5), each evaluation factor in the evaluation system is evaluated to determine the degree of membership of the evaluation object to the evaluation set factor, so as to construct a fuzzy evaluation matrix.
Further, the influence of all factors is comprehensively considered in the step (6), and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
(1) The invention can comprehensively synthesize all key factors to construct a judgment model and scientifically evaluate the running state of the insulator, can be adjusted according to the actual running condition of a specific line, and determines the service life of the insulator according to the actual condition of the line.
(2) According to the method, key factors capable of influencing the running state of the insulator are selected to form a judgment index system according to actual running experience and relevant test standards of the insulator, and index selection is comprehensive, scientific and accurate. And the weight determination of each index is combined with actual operation experience and scientific theoretical basis, and the evaluation result is scientific and credible. The algorithm and the evaluation flow have high standardization degree, and can be directly transplanted to be applied to the state evaluation research of other types of electric power equipment.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a model diagram of an insulator operating state evaluation index system.
FIG. 2 is a graph of distribution of half trapezoidal and triangular membership functions.
Detailed Description
Because the problem of evaluating the residual life of the insulator needs to comprehensively consider various relevant indexes such as an operation age factor, an electrical factor, a mechanical factor and the like, wherein the evaluation indexes include a qualitative index and a quantitative index, how to comprehensively consider the factors to construct a judgment model to scientifically evaluate the operation state of the insulator is one of the difficulties in the current research.
Based on the above, the invention provides a method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of a railway cantilever insulator, which comprises the following steps:
(1) And constructing a hierarchical index system. Comprehensively considering the state indexes of the porcelain insulators, selecting characteristic evaluation factors of the porcelain insulators based on three aspects of appearance factors, electrical factors and mechanical factors, and constructing a reasonable and comprehensive hierarchical evaluation system.
(2) And calculating the weight of each index. An improved analytic hierarchy process, namely a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (consistency check is not needed), is utilized to establish a judgment matrix according to the priority relation of the importance of each evaluation index, and the constant weight of each index is calculated.
(3) And establishing a judgment set. And establishing a judgment set according to various possible evaluation results.
(4) And calculating the membership degree of each index.
(5) And constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix. And evaluating each evaluation factor in the evaluation system to determine the membership degree of the evaluation object to the evaluation set factors so as to construct a fuzzy evaluation matrix.
(6) And (5) fuzzy comprehensive judgment. And comprehensively considering the influence of all factors and carrying out fuzzy comprehensive judgment.
(7) And (4) evaluating the overall state.
The following is presented by way of more specific example:
1. determining a judgment index
According to the requirements of relevant test standards of the insulator and the problems possibly existing in operation, the method selects representative parameters capable of reflecting the aging state of the insulator to construct an insulator aging state evaluation model. The index layer mainly comprises an operation aging parameter, a mechanical performance parameter and an electrical performance parameter, and the selection principle is as follows: the electrical and mechanical properties corresponding to the most essential characteristics (insulation and support) of the insulator in an operating line are grasped, the aging characteristics in the operating process are considered, and the establishment of the test items not only detects the overall performance of the currently operating insulator, but also can evaluate the overall state of the insulator. Wherein the operation aging index selects two indexes of metal corrosion degree and operation age; selecting two indexes of the tensile strength of the flat cantilever and the fatigue of the flat cantilever as mechanical performance items; the electrical performance item full analysis test data selection can represent the basic performance of the electrical performance item and has the following indexes related to the aging state: insulation resistance, power frequency wet flashover, power frequency dry flashover, artificial pollution test, hydrophobicity test and leakage current.
2. Calculating the weight of the evaluation index
The weight of each index is an extremely important parameter, and whether the determination of each index scientifically and reasonably directly influences the accuracy of the evaluation is determined. In the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method, the weight rule of the precedence relationship matrix needs to be evaluated by a human means. The precedence relationship matrix weighting rule is shown in table 1. The establishment of the matrix is the basis of the FAHP method establishing analysis process. Therefore, under the condition that the subsequent test data are sufficient, the existing evaluation result and the measured test data are combined to establish a more reasonable priority relation matrix.
TABLE 1 nine Scale from 0.1 to 0.9
Figure BDA0003934042390000051
And analyzing and determining the weight of each index layer and each sub-index layer of the evaluation model according to the table 1: when constructing the priority relationship matrix, in order to accurately describe the relative importance of any two factors with respect to a certain criterion, the priority relationship matrix F = (F) of each index layer is constructed by using the scales of 0.1 to 0.9 shown in table 1 ij ) n×n (ii) a Then the priority relation matrix needs to be converted into a fuzzy consistent matrix A = (a) ij ) n×n The transformation method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003934042390000052
wherein
Figure BDA0003934042390000053
For the evaluation target, the importance degree of each factor is different, and the weight reflects the importance degree of each evaluation factor. For the fuzzy consistent matrix A established in the previous step = (a) ij ) n×n Calculating the weight w corresponding to each factor by using a relational sorting method i (i＝1,2,…M), the set w = { w) of these weights 1 ,w 2 ,…,w m Called the set of evaluation index weights, the weights must meet the normalization requirement, i.e.,
Figure BDA0003934042390000054
a relational ordering method:
Figure BDA0003934042390000055
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA0003934042390000056
the calculated values in the scheme are as follows:
(1) Determination of index layer priority relation matrix
Figure BDA0003934042390000061
Value analysis: the running aging is slightly more important than the mechanical performance, and the value is 0.6; the running aging is slightly more important than the electrical performance, and the value is 0.6; the mechanical properties are equally important compared to the electrical properties, taking a value of 0.5.
(2) Determination of sub-index layer priority relation matrix
Figure BDA0003934042390000062
Value analysis: the hydrophobicity is slightly more important than the latter of hardware corrosion, namely the value is 0.4, and is slightly more important than the latter of a surface damage state, namely the value is 0.4, and is obviously more important than the latter of an operation age, namely the value is 0.3; the corrosion degree of the hardware is 0.5 which is the same as the surface damage state, and 0.5 which is the same as the operation age. The surface damage state is as important as the operational life, and the value is 0.5.
Figure BDA0003934042390000063
Value analysis: the tensile strength of the insulator is equally important compared with the fatigue strength, and the value is 0.5.
Figure BDA0003934042390000064
Value analysis: the insulation resistance is slightly more important than power frequency wet flashover, and the value is 0.6; compared with the power frequency dry flashover, the value is slightly important and is 0.6; compared with artificial pollution pressure resistance, the pressure resistance is slightly important, and the value is 0.6; is slightly more important than a lightning impulse test, and the value is 0.6; compared with the leakage current, the value is 0.5; compared with a voltage distribution test, the method is obviously important, and the value is 0.7. The power frequency wet flashover is more important than the power frequency dry flashover, and the value is 0.5; compared with the artificial pollution pressure resistance, the value is 0.5; is slightly more important than a lightning impulse test, and the value is 0.6; the latter is slightly more important than the leakage current, and the value is 0.4; compared with a voltage distribution test, the method is obviously important, and the value is 0.7. The power frequency dry flashover is slightly more important than the artificial pollution pressure resistance, and the value is 0.6; is slightly more important than a lightning impulse test, and the value is 0.6; the latter is equally important compared to the leakage current, and the value is 0.5; compared with a voltage distribution test, the method is obviously important, and the value is 0.7. The artificial pollution pressure resistance is slightly more important than a lightning impulse test, and the value is 0.6; is as important as the leakage current, and the value is 0.5; compared with a voltage distribution test, the method is obviously important, and the value is 0.7. The lightning impulse test is slightly more important than the leakage current, and the value is 0.4; is slightly more important than a voltage distribution experiment, and the value is 0.6. The leakage current is slightly more important than the voltage distribution test, and takes a value of 0.6.
(3) Calculating fuzzy consistent matrix and weight of each index layer
Calculating a fuzzy consistent matrix and weight distribution corresponding to the priority relation matrix through MATLAB programming:
Figure BDA0003934042390000071
W target ＝[0.356 0.322 0.322]
Figure BDA0003934042390000081
W Operation aging ＝[0.225 0.256 0.256 0.263]
Figure BDA0003934042390000082
W Mechanical factors ＝[0.5 0.5]
Figure BDA0003934042390000083
W Electrical factors ＝[0.155 0.145 0.147 0.147 0.135 0.149 0.122]
The results of the calculations are summarized in table 2:
TABLE 2 summary of evaluation index weights
Figure BDA0003934042390000084
Figure BDA0003934042390000091
3. Determining a set of judgments
After determining the evaluation factors of the aging state of the porcelain insulator of the contact network, the state of the insulator needs to be divided, namely, an evaluation set of each factor in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established. According to the practical situation, the evaluation of each factor is uniformly divided into four grades of 'good', 'normal', 'early warning' and 'replacement'. Namely, V = { good, general, early warning, replacement }, and each grade score corresponds to 1,2,3,4 respectively. Wherein, "good" means that the insulator is not aged, operates normally, has stable performance and extremely low possibility of failure, and can operate safely for a long time. "general" means that the individual state quantity reflects that the insulator is slightly aged, but the basic performance is basically stable, the insulator can continuously operate, and the possibility of failure is low; the early warning indicates that certain state quantity reflects that the insulator is aged to a certain extent, the insulation state is not good enough, and workers need to be arranged regularly for inspection; the replacement means that the porcelain insulator has serious aging degree, poor insulation state and easy accident occurrence, and the state development of the porcelain insulator needs to be closely concerned.
And (4) according to the comprehensive judgment result, making an operation maintenance result of the insulator, wherein the operation maintenance result is shown in the following table.
TABLE 3 evaluation results and operation maintenance policy Table
Figure BDA0003934042390000092
4. Calculation of membership of each index
In the multi-index fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, because the dimensions of each sub-index are different, the magnitude of the sub-index value is also different, and the obtained membership degree is often inconsistent with the actual situation. Therefore, before determining the membership function, the quantitative index data needs to be normalized, that is, the test data of each index needs to be normalized. The specific method comprises the following steps:
for smaller and more optimal indexes, the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003934042390000101
for the larger and more optimal index, the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003934042390000102
in the formula, x i Normalized value for index i, C 0 For the optimum value of the index, C 01 A value to be noted for the index, C i K is the influence degree of the parameter change on the aging state, and is generally 1.
Membership is a fundamental stone for establishing fuzzy set theory, and membership function is a key for describing ambiguity. For the evaluation factor membership function, the existing fuzzy distribution can be applied mechanically according to the nature of the problem, then parameters contained in the distribution are established according to the measured data, and finally the membership function is determined, as shown in table 4. In the application, various parameters are converted into functions between 0 and 1 through the treatment of a normalization method and an expert scoring method, and then the distribution functions of triangles and trapezoids are selected to determine the membership degree. In fact, the fuzzification process is a process of converting the aging state information of the porcelain insulator into membership. Here, a distribution function combining a half trapezoid and a triangle is selected, as shown in fig. 2.
TABLE 4 membership functions
Figure BDA0003934042390000103
Figure BDA0003934042390000111
The membership matrix obtained according to the case insulator test data is as follows:
the corrosion degree of the hardware: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.0.98.02 ]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [0 0 0 1];
the service life is as follows: an insulator A: r1= [0 0 0 1]; in 1981: insulator B, R1= [ 0.9.1 0];
tensile strength: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.955 0.045]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [ 10 0];
fatigue strength: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.638 0.362 ]; and (3) insulator B: r1= [ 10 0];
insulation resistance: an insulator A: r1= [0 0 0 1]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [ 0.0.591 0.409];
power frequency wet flashing: an insulator A: r1= [0 0 0 1]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [ 0.0.12.88 ];
power frequency dry flashing: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.0.25.75 ]; and (3) insulator B: r1= [ 0.0.324 0.676];
artificial contamination: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.118 0.882 ]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [ 0.106 0.894 ];
hydrophobicity: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.2.0 ]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [ 0.5.5 0];
leakage current: an insulator A: r1= [ 0.0.207.793 ]; and (3) an insulator B: r1= [0.474 0.526 0].
5. Establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix
And evaluating each evaluation factor in the evaluation system to determine the membership degree of the evaluation object to the evaluation set factors, namely, determining the membership function of the evaluation object to construct a fuzzy evaluation matrix R.
Setting the ith factor u in the evaluation object according to the factor set i Evaluating, wherein the membership degree of the jth element in the evaluation set is r ij According to the ith element u i As a result of the evaluation, a fuzzy set R can be used i ＝{r i1 ,r i2 ,…r in Denotes R i Referred to as a single factor evaluation set. Similarly, the evaluation of the single factor corresponding to each factor can be obtained and formed into a matrix R with the membership degree of each single factor evaluation set as a row, wherein the R is called a fuzzy evaluation matrix. In the application, a membership function of an evaluation factor is determined, and then a fuzzy evaluation matrix R is constructed by the membership function.
Figure BDA0003934042390000121
The results of this example:
an insulator A:
Figure BDA0003934042390000131
Figure BDA0003934042390000132
and (3) an insulator B:
Figure BDA0003934042390000133
Figure BDA0003934042390000134
6. fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
The influence of all factors is comprehensively considered during fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to obtain a correct evaluation result, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out according to a fuzzy evaluation relational expression
Figure BDA0003934042390000136
And (4) finishing. The ith row of the fuzzy evaluation matrix R reflects the degree that the ith element influences the evaluation object to take each evaluation set element; the jth column of R reflects the degree to which all factors influence the evaluation object to take the jth judgment set element. Therefore we can use the sum of each column element
Figure BDA0003934042390000135
Reflecting the comprehensive influence of all factors, multiplying each item of the evaluation fuzzy evaluation matrix R by the weight w of the corresponding evaluation factor i (i =1,2, \8230;, m) then reasonably describes the combined effect of all factors.
Figure BDA0003934042390000141
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0003934042390000144
is a fuzzy operator; b = (B) 1 ,b 2 ,…,b n ) Is a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation set. b i After all evaluation factors are considered comprehensively, the evaluation object has the membership degree to the jth element in the evaluation set, and B is a fuzzy subset on the evaluation set V. Fuzzy judgment relational expression
Figure BDA0003934042390000145
Medium fuzzy operator
Figure BDA0003934042390000146
There are many ways of selecting the weighted average type of blurOperators, denoted by M (+,) i.e.
Figure BDA0003934042390000142
The weighted average type gives consideration to all the factors in a balanced manner according to the weight, and is suitable for the condition that all the factors are considered to play a role.
The results of this example:
an insulator A:
Figure BDA0003934042390000143
Figure BDA0003934042390000151
Figure BDA0003934042390000152
and (3) insulator B:
Figure BDA0003934042390000153
Figure BDA0003934042390000154
Figure BDA0003934042390000155
7. overall state assessment
An insulator A:
Figure BDA0003934042390000161
and (3) an insulator B:
Figure BDA0003934042390000162
and respectively assigning 4,3,2 and 1 to replacement, early warning, general and excellent insulator evaluation values to obtain the evaluation values of insulators in each year as follows:
an insulator A:
Figure BDA0003934042390000163
and (3) an insulator B:
Figure BDA0003934042390000164
in the evaluation value calculation process, the value 4, the value 3, the value 2 and the value 1 respectively represent four states of replacement, early warning, generality and excellence, and the aging state is more serious when the numerical value is larger. Where the evaluation value 4 represents the end of life, and if 50 years is taken as the end of life, the remaining life is:
Figure BDA0003934042390000165
and (5) year.
Correspondingly, the insulator A:
Figure BDA0003934042390000166
and (5) year.
And (3) insulator B:
Figure BDA0003934042390000167
note: the analysis is based on the insulator set working life limit of 50 years, and can be adjusted according to the actual running condition of the specific line, and the life limit is determined according to the actual condition of the line.

Claims (6)

1. A method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of a railway cantilever insulator is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) Constructing a hierarchical index system;
(2) Calculating the weight of each index;
(3) Establishing a judgment set;
(4) Calculating the membership degree of each index;
(5) Constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
(6) Fuzzy comprehensive judgment;
(7) And (4) evaluating the overall state.
2. The method for evaluating the running state and the residual life of the railway cantilever insulator according to claim 1, wherein the step (1) of constructing the hierarchical index system is to comprehensively consider the state index of the porcelain insulator, select characteristic evaluation factors based on three aspects of appearance factors, electrical factors and mechanical factors, and construct a reasonable and comprehensive hierarchical evaluation system.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the weights of the indicators in step (2) comprises using an improved analytic hierarchy process (HID) -fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to establish a judgment matrix according to the priority of the importance of the indicators to be evaluated, and calculating the normal weights of the indicators.
4. The method for evaluating the operating condition and remaining life of a railroad cantilever insulator according to claim 1, wherein in the step (3), a judgment set is established according to various evaluation results.
5. The method for evaluating the operating state and the remaining life of the railway cantilever insulator according to claim 1, wherein in the step (5), each evaluation factor in the evaluation system is evaluated to determine the membership degree of an evaluation object to a judgment set factor so as to construct a fuzzy judgment matrix.
6. The method for evaluating the operating state and the remaining life of the insulator of the railroad cantilever according to claim 1, wherein the influence of all factors is comprehensively considered in the step (6) to perform fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
CN202211397322.5A 2022-11-09 2022-11-09 Method for evaluating running state and residual life of insulator of railway cantilever Pending CN115577560A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116124903A (en) * 2023-04-13 2023-05-16 广东电网有限责任公司揭阳供电局 Defect early warning method, device, system, equipment and medium for insulator

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116124903A (en) * 2023-04-13 2023-05-16 广东电网有限责任公司揭阳供电局 Defect early warning method, device, system, equipment and medium for insulator
CN116124903B (en) * 2023-04-13 2023-08-15 广东电网有限责任公司揭阳供电局 Defect early warning method, device, system, equipment and medium for insulator

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