CN112308424A - Power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data. And evaluating the health condition evaluation of the single distribution transformer, and further calculating the power supply capacity of the power supply station, the county, the city and the whole province. According to the method, based on the establishment of the distribution transformer health system, the health state scores of the distribution transformers are obtained, the power supply capacities of the power supply station, the counties, the cities and the provinces are further calculated, and the power supply mode of the power supply station can be decided.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data.
Background
The power transformer is one of the important electrical devices in the power system, and once an accident occurs, the repair time is long, and the influence is serious. With the rapid occurrence of the power industry in China, the scale of a power grid is continuously enlarged, the unit capacity and the installation capacity of a power transformer are continuously increased, and the voltage grade is also continuously improved. Generally, the larger the capacity, the higher the voltage level, and the greater the loss due to transformer failure. In recent years, power transformers have experienced unexpected accidents, although their operational reliability has improved due to improvements in materials, design methods, and manufacturing techniques. Once a fault occurs, the local network power supply is trapped, the normal power utilization of users is affected, and irreparable economic loss and bad social influence are caused. At present, the state analysis mode of the distribution equipment of the company is mainly a post analysis mode based on the distribution state phenomenon, and a systematic research of the analysis and evaluation of the state of the distribution equipment needs to be developed urgently.
Because the distribution network equipment is huge in quantity and wide in distribution range, the distribution equipment detection is carried out only by manpower, the consumption of manpower and material resources is huge, the efficiency is low, and the timeliness is poor. After the distribution transformer fails, the distribution transformer is mostly directly replaced, and deep reasons and failure mechanism analysis of the distribution transformer failure are insufficient. The method comprises the steps of comprehensively collecting multi-dimensional distribution transformer health factor data, extracting typical characteristics of distribution transformer fault operation data, developing research on influence correlation of distribution transformer health factor, constructing a distribution transformer health state analysis and evaluation system by combining with an analysis and evaluation method of distribution transformer operation states, and analyzing power supply capacity of a power supply station so as to decide a power supply mode of the power supply station and the like.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformer data, which is based on the establishment of a distribution transformer health system, obtains the scores of the health states of the distribution transformers, further calculates the power supply capacity of a power supply station, a district, a county, a city and a whole province, and can decide the power supply mode of the power supply station.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data comprises the following steps:
step S1, calculating the health score S of each distribution transformer in the power supply station1，2，...，N；
Step S2, based on the monthly or yearly health score of a single distribution transformer, and with the rated capacity of the distribution transformer as the weight, the power supply capacity score of the power supply station is calculated in a weighted manner, namely
Wherein N is a power supply distribution variable, P1，2，...，NThe capacity of each distribution transformer;
and step S3, calculating the power supply capacity scores of all the power supply stations in the region, namely obtaining the power supply capacity score of the whole region.
In an embodiment of the present invention, in step S1, the health score of the collocation change is calculated as follows:
s11, constructing a multi-level index of a distribution transformer health evaluation index system;
step S12, determining index weights of all levels of a distribution transformation health evaluation index system based on historical data;
and step S13, determining an index scoring mode of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system based on the historical data, and further calculating the health score of the distribution transformer.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the multi-level index is a three-level index, i.e., a first-level index, a second-level index, and a third-level index; the first-level indexes comprise attribute characteristics, operation environments and operation conditions, wherein second-level indexes of the attribute characteristics comprise models, operation and maintenance units, power supply partitions, operation areas and rated capacity, second-level indexes of the operation environments comprise lightning environments, air temperature environments, rainfall environments, air volume environments, polluted environments and icing environments, and second-level indexes of the operation conditions comprise year, month load characteristics, heavy loads, overload, three-phase imbalance, power failure and overvoltage.
In an embodiment of the present invention, in step S12, a hierarchical structure of distribution transformer health influencing factors is decomposed by using an analytic hierarchy process, a judgment matrix is constructed, and each level of index weight of a distribution transformer health evaluation index system is determined.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the specific implementation manner of step S13 is: and (4) carrying out quantitative evaluation processing on each level of indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system, processing unquantizable data, and then obtaining a final score by using a comprehensive scoring method according to each level of index weight of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system and the single score of each level of indexes determined in the step S2 to realize the index scoring of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system.
In an embodiment of the invention, quantitative evaluation processing is performed on each level of indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system by adopting a rank and ratio method, specifically, grading is performed on quantitative indexes without a ready specific standard or quantitative indexes without a clear evaluation standard in each level of indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system by adopting the rank and ratio method, and single grading is performed on each level of indexes by taking the interval value of the grading of the indexes as a parameter of a fuzzy membership function.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the formula of the comprehensive scoring method is as follows:
in the formula sk+1Represents the k +1 layer index A in the hierarchical structurek+1The hierarchical structure of the evaluation is the multi-level index hierarchical structure of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system constructed in the step S1, wherein one level is one level; n represents an index Ak+1The number of sub-indexes of the k layer; skIs represented by Ak+1Sub-index of k layer
Scoring of (4);
indicating sub-indicators
The weight of (c).
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: the method of the invention is based on the establishment of the distribution transformer health system, and the health state scores of the distribution transformers are obtained, so that the power supply capacities of the power supply station, the counties, the cities and the provinces are calculated, and the power supply mode of the power supply station can be decided.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is an analytic hierarchy process of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the comprehensive analysis method-scoring according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is specifically explained below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The invention provides a power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data, which comprises the following steps:
step S1, calculating the health score S of each distribution transformer in the power supply station1，2，...，N；
Step S2, based on the monthly or yearly health score of a single distribution transformer, and with the rated capacity of the distribution transformer as the weight, the power supply capacity score of the power supply station is calculated in a weighted manner, namely
Wherein N is a power supply distribution variable, P1，2，...，NThe capacity of each distribution transformer;
and step S3, calculating the power supply capacity scores of all the power supply stations in the region, namely obtaining the power supply capacity score of the whole region.
The following is a specific implementation of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data of the present invention includes the following steps:
step S1, calculating the health score S of each distribution transformer in the power supply station1，2，...，N；
Step S2, based on the monthly or yearly health score of a single distribution transformer, and with the rated capacity of the distribution transformer as the weight, the power supply capacity score of the power supply station is calculated in a weighted manner, namely
Wherein N is a power supply distribution variable, P1，2，...，NThe capacity of each distribution transformer;
and step S3, calculating the power supply capacity scores of all the power supply stations in the region, namely obtaining the power supply capacity score of the whole region.
In step S1, the health score of the collocation change is calculated as follows:
s11, constructing a multi-level index of a distribution transformer health evaluation index system;
step S12, determining index weights of all levels of a distribution transformation health evaluation index system based on historical data;
and step S13, determining an index scoring mode of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system based on the historical data, and further calculating the health score of the distribution transformer.
The method for constructing the multilevel indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system in the embodiment is specifically as follows: (1) a distribution transformer equipment health analysis index system consisting of 3 primary indexes, 18 secondary indexes and 30 tertiary indexes such as attribute characteristics, operating environment and operating condition is constructed; (2) determining a three-level index weight value based on historical data; (3) an index scoring method is determined based on historical data. Specifically, relevant attributes and characteristics which may affect the healthy operation of the distribution transformer equipment are collected, the degree of influence on the healthy operation of the distribution transformer equipment is analyzed, the relevant attributes and characteristics which affect the healthy operation of the distribution transformer equipment are mined, an index system for the healthy analysis of the distribution transformer equipment, which is composed of 3 primary indexes such as attribute characteristics, operation environment, operation working conditions and the like, 18 secondary indexes and 30 tertiary indexes, is constructed at the initial stage of the project from the dimensions such as attribute environmental characteristics, operation state characteristics, power supply quality and operation economy, wherein the attribute characteristics relate to 5 secondary indexes: model, operation and maintenance unit, power supply partition, operation area, rated capacity, and operation environment relates to 6 secondary indexes: thunder and lightning environment, temperature environment, rainfall environment, amount of wind environment, polluted environment, icing environment, the operating mode relates to 7 second grade indexes: the indexes of the distribution transformer include year, monthly load characteristics, heavy load, overload, three-phase imbalance, power failure and overvoltage, and the related indexes can objectively and accurately feed back the running health condition of the distribution transformer and powerfully support fault analysis and early warning of the distribution transformer. The distribution transformer equipment health analysis index system is detailed in table 1.
TABLE 1 distribution transformer equipment health analysis index system
TABLE 1 continuation
According to the distribution transformer equipment health analysis index system, a hierarchical structure of distribution transformer equipment health influence factors is decomposed by using an analytic hierarchy process, a judgment (pair comparison) matrix is constructed, distribution transformer equipment health index weight is determined, quantitative evaluation processing is carried out on indexes, unquantizable data are directly processed, and finally, final scores are obtained by using a comprehensive scoring method according to the weight and single score, so that distribution transformer equipment health evaluation is realized.
The invention realizes the construction of a distribution transformation health analysis index system and the calculation of a distribution transformation health score by the following method:
(1) analytic hierarchy process (as shown in FIG. 2)
Analytic hierarchy process, AHP for short, refers to a decision-making method that decomposes elements always related to decision-making into levels such as targets, criteria, schemes, etc., and performs qualitative and quantitative analysis on the basis. The analytic hierarchy process includes decomposing the decision problem into different hierarchical structures based on the total target, sub targets in different layers, evaluation criteria and specific alternative scheme, solving the characteristic vector of judging matrix to obtain the priority weight of each element in each layer to the element in the last layer, and final step of weighting and merging the final weights of the alternative schemes to the total target.
The analytic hierarchy process is used for calculating and distributing the weight ratio of various indexes or parameters in the distribution transformer equipment health evaluation system, for example, the influence of the fault of each part of the distribution transformer on the operation condition of the whole distribution transformer is analyzed, and the influence on the health degree of the distribution transformer equipment is analyzed.
(2) Comprehensive analysis and rank-sum ratio method (as shown in FIG. 3)
And a comprehensive analysis method for evaluating the health degree of the evaluation object by adopting a fuzzy mathematical language. The realization mainly comprises two links: determining index evaluation criteria and determining a fuzzy membership function. For the quantitative indexes without the existing specific standard, the quantitative indexes are graded by adopting a rank and ratio method, and the quantitative indexes are scored by combining a fuzzy function.
And for the quantitative indexes lacking clear judgment standards, a rank and ratio method is introduced to grade the quantitative indexes, the interval values of the index grading are used as parameters of a fuzzy membership function, and all indexes are graded to ensure reasonable discrimination. The principle is that in an n-row m-column matrix, through rank conversion, a dimensionless statistic RSR is obtained, and the distribution of the RSR is researched; and ranking the advantages and the disadvantages of the evaluation objects by using the RSR value so as to comprehensively evaluate the evaluation objects.
For example, an indication of the age of the shipment
1. Calculating its RSR value
2. Determining distribution of RSR
3. Calculating a regression equation from the RSR values
Sorting, sorting and grading according to a reasonable grading principle and an optimal grading principle, classifying the indexes into four classes of 0-2, 3-10, 11-20 and more than 20 according to the years, and giving scores to each class through expert experience.
(3) Comprehensive scoring method
The comprehensive evaluation of the index system, namely the grading realization of the primary index, comprises the following calculation processes: selecting index weight, calculating and grading a single index and comprehensively grading multiple indexes. The calculation score and the index weight setting of the single index are calculated in detail in a comprehensive analysis method and a rank and ratio method respectively, the multi-index comprehensive score follows the process of calculating from the bottom layer to the top step by step, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula sk+1Represents the k +1 layer index A in the hierarchical structurek+1The hierarchical structure of the evaluation is the multi-level index hierarchical structure of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system constructed in the step S1, wherein one level is one level; n represents an index Ak+1The number of sub-indexes of the k layer; skIs represented by Ak+1Sub-index of k layer
Scoring of (4);
indicating sub-indicators
The weight of (c).
Secondly, the invention carries out power supply capacity of a power supply station, a district, a city and a whole province based on a distribution transformer health score, and concretely comprises the following steps:
based on monthly or yearly health score of a single distribution transformer, and rated capacity of the distribution transformer as weight, power supply capacity score of the power supply station is calculated in a weighted mode, namely power supply capacity score
Wherein N is a power supply distribution variable, P1，2，...，NThe capacity of each distribution transformer;
and finally, calculating the power supply capacity scores of all power supply stations in the region to obtain the power supply capacity score of the whole region.
The above are preferred embodiments of the present invention, and all changes made according to the technical scheme of the present invention that produce functional effects do not exceed the scope of the technical scheme of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, calculating the health score S of each distribution transformer in the power supply station1，2，...，N；
Step S2, based on the monthly or yearly health score of a single distribution transformer, and with the rated capacity of the distribution transformer as the weight, the power supply capacity score of the power supply station is calculated in a weighted manner, namely
Wherein N is a power supply distribution variable, P1，2，...，NThe capacity of each distribution transformer;
and step S3, calculating the power supply capacity scores of all the power supply stations in the region, namely obtaining the power supply capacity score of the whole region.
2. A power supply capability analysis method based on distribution transformation data as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S1, the health score of the distribution transformation is calculated as follows:
s11, constructing a multi-level index of a distribution transformer health evaluation index system;
step S12, determining index weights of all levels of a distribution transformation health evaluation index system based on historical data;
and step S13, determining an index scoring mode of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system based on the historical data, and further calculating the health score of the distribution transformer.
3. The distribution transformation data-based power supply capacity analysis method according to claim 2, wherein the multi-level index is a three-level index, namely a primary index, a secondary index and a three-level index; the first-level indexes comprise attribute characteristics, operation environments and operation conditions, wherein second-level indexes of the attribute characteristics comprise models, operation and maintenance units, power supply partitions, operation areas and rated capacity, second-level indexes of the operation environments comprise lightning environments, air temperature environments, rainfall environments, air volume environments, polluted environments and icing environments, and second-level indexes of the operation conditions comprise year, month load characteristics, heavy loads, overload, three-phase imbalance, power failure and overvoltage.
4. The power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformer data as claimed in claim 2, wherein in the step S12, a hierarchical structure of distribution transformer health influencing factors is decomposed by using a hierarchical analysis method, a judgment matrix is constructed, and index weights of each level of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system are determined.
5. The power supply capacity analysis method based on the distribution transformation data as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step S13 is specifically implemented as follows: and (4) carrying out quantitative evaluation processing on each level of indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system, processing unquantizable data, and then obtaining a final score by using a comprehensive scoring method according to each level of index weight of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system and the single score of each level of indexes determined in the step S2 to realize the index scoring of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system.
6. The distribution transformer data-based power supply capacity analysis method according to claim 5, characterized in that quantitative evaluation processing is performed on each level of indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system by using a rank and ratio method, specifically, grading is performed on quantitative indexes without a ready specific standard or quantitative indexes without a definite judgment standard among the levels of indexes of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system by using a rank and ratio method, and a range value of the grading of the indexes is used as a parameter of the fuzzy membership function to perform single grading on each level of indexes.
7. The power supply capacity analysis method based on distribution transformation data as claimed in claim 5, wherein the formula of the comprehensive scoring method is as follows:
in the formula sk+1Represents the k +1 layer index A in the hierarchical structurek+1The hierarchical structure of the evaluation is the multi-level index hierarchical structure of the distribution transformer health evaluation index system constructed in the step S1, wherein one level is one level; n represents an index Ak+1The number of sub-indexes of the k layer; skIs represented by Ak+1Sub-index of k layer
Scoring of (4);
indicating sub-indicators
The weight of (c).
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