CN110298012B - Test data and operation and maintenance information-based medium and low voltage XLPE cable service life assessment method - Google Patents
Test data and operation and maintenance information-based medium and low voltage XLPE cable service life assessment method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a middle and low voltage XLPE cable service life assessment method based on test data and operation and maintenance information, which comprises the following steps: 1. establishing a medium-low voltage XLPE cable residual life assessment system, 2, scoring a cable test project to be assessed, 3, scoring operation and maintenance information of the cable to be assessed, and 4, assessing the residual life of the cable; the method effectively avoids the bias of accelerated aging of a laboratory and actual field operation, all evaluation item inputs come from performance test data and related operation and maintenance information of the actual operation cable, mainly non-destructive tests are carried out, normal operation of a cable line is not influenced, and the method is convenient to apply; the artificially specified index weight is not used, so that the objectivity of the evaluation system is ensured; and all projects are not required to be completely input, the cable state rating and service life prediction range can be given under the condition that the evaluation index is not complete, and meanwhile, a cable maintenance suggestion is given, so that the method has important guiding significance for the practical application of engineering.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for evaluating the service life of a medium-low voltage XLPE cable in operation, in particular to a method for evaluating the cable state based on test data and operation and maintenance information and evaluating the service life of the medium-low voltage XLPE cable in field operation according to the obtained score.
Background
The crosslinked polyethylene (XLPE) cable has excellent mechanical and electrical properties, does not have the limitations of the traditional oil-filled cable in the aspects of fire prevention, maintenance, environment and the like, and has a trend of increasing engineering application year by year. In China, XLPE cables with 35kV and lower middle-low voltage grades basically replace oiled paper cables. With the expansion of the application range and the increase of the operation period, the evaluation of the residual life of the medium-low voltage XLPE cable becomes a problem to be solved urgently in the technical field of electrical engineering, and has important significance for improving the management efficiency of cable assets, reasonably arranging the power failure overhaul and replacement and ensuring the safe and stable operation of a power grid.
The life evaluation of the cable is based on the state evaluation to obtain a predicted value of the remaining life of the cable, which is an accurate value or a life range. According to the requirements of power grid users, the actual running state of the cable is known, the residual service life of the cable is obtained, and the method is of great importance for reasonably arranging cable maintenance and replacement, optimizing asset management of power equipment and improving the running safety of the power grid.
The State evaluation method of the distribution network cable comprises the steps that a distribution network cable state evaluation system comprising state scores and test projects is constructed on the basis of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the state score projects comprise economic factors and strategy factors besides technical factors, but in reality, domestic cable asset management mainly focuses on the technical factors, and the economic factors and the strategy factors have little influence on retirement decision of the cable; secondly, the test items contained in the evaluation system are physicochemical analysis tests of cable insulation slice samples, the cables need to be separated from the line and destructively sampled, and the evaluation system is difficult to be applied in practice; finally, the system does not give a predicted value of the remaining life of the cable, nor does it give a targeted guidance for the same rated cable, with limited reference value for the user. The yellow zodiac of North China Power university establishes a 110kV XLPE cable insulation quality evaluation and service life prediction model based on a fuzzy comprehensive rating method and an artificial neural network, but test items in the evaluation model are mostly destructive tests, and the application difficulty is high; although the external factors in the evaluation model can partially reflect the operation environment of the cable, important information such as the fault condition of the cable, the operation age and the like is not taken into consideration, the evaluation model is not comprehensive enough, and the evaluation model is lack of objectivity by adopting a direct grading mode of experts; meanwhile, the life prediction model is based on an artificial neural network, and the method has limited accuracy under the condition of small sample data volume. The XLPE cable residual life assessment software framework is constructed by Vatica mangachapoi of North China university of electric power, but the low-voltage cable and the high-voltage cable are obviously different in material, structure, operation, test and the like, so that the assessment by adopting the same system is obviously unreasonable, and the method for giving out assessment conclusion according to a single test is questionable in validity and accuracy. The aging evaluation system of the cable with the voltage of 35kV or below is researched by Liu Fei of Shanghai traffic university, non-experimental indexes are not considered, evaluation is carried out only on the basis of physical and chemical analysis test data of the cable, the application difficulty is high, and the engineering is not strong; and the system is constructed based on a laboratory accelerated aging test, and the aging rule deviation from the actual operation on site is large.
The evaluation system established in the research work is only evaluated based on a single performance test, so that the effectiveness is poor, or all project data are needed but the project cannot be lacked, and the application limitation is large; secondly, domestic cable life assessment is mostly based on laboratory accelerated aging tests, and the deviation between assessment results and actual engineering is large; thirdly, when the sizes of the elements of the decision set are close, the resolution ratio is poor, and the judgment is possibly failed; finally, the setting of the index weight adopts a mode directly given by an expert, and the evaluation work lacks objectivity.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a service life assessment method for comprehensively considering performance test data and operation and maintenance information of a medium-low voltage XLPE cable, which effectively avoids the deviation between laboratory accelerated aging and actual field operation, and all assessment project inputs come from the performance test data and relevant operation and maintenance information of the actual operation cable, mainly adopts a nondestructive test, does not influence the normal operation of a cable line, and is convenient to apply; the artificially specified index weight is not used, so that the objectivity of the evaluation system is ensured; and all projects are not required to be completely input, the cable state rating and service life prediction range can be given under the condition that the evaluation index is not complete, and meanwhile, a cable maintenance suggestion is given, so that the method has important guiding significance for the practical application of engineering.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
a middle and low voltage XLPE cable service life assessment method based on test data and operation and maintenance information comprises the following steps:
step 1: establishing a medium-low voltage XLPE cable residual life evaluation system:
1) the big data is collected and sorted out,
comprehensively collecting performance test data and operation and maintenance information of the aged medium and low voltage XLPE cable in field operation, wherein the performance test is mainly a nondestructive field test;
2) the analysis of the correlation is carried out,
the method comprises the following steps of analyzing the correlation between performance test data of the medium and low voltage XLPE cable and the operation life, wherein the test items meeting the set correlation conditions comprise: rated voltage U0The dielectric loss measured value and the voltage of the lower 0.1Hz are respectively 2U0And U0The difference of the lower 0.1Hz dielectric loss measurement value, the step-by-step breakdown electric field intensity (the ratio of the step-by-step breakdown voltage of 10min per step to the nominal insulation thickness of the cable) and the maximum unbalance of the three-phase insulation resistance (the ratio of the maximum resistance value to the minimum resistance value) are respectively recorded as T, DT, E and RbThe four test items are included in an evaluation system;
3) the scoring criteria for the test item is determined,
according to the specification of IEEE.Std.400.2-2013 on test items T and DT, and simultaneously according to the test data centroid distribution of cables in different operating age ranges, the scoring standard of the test items is formulated;
4) constructing a cable operation and maintenance information scoring table,
determining related operation and maintenance information items and grading standards; the operation and maintenance information items comprise four operation and maintenance information items of operation age, fault condition, operation environment and load level, which are respectively recorded as Y, F, A and L, wherein the operation environment is divided into four aspects of sheath condition, water invasion investigation, laying investigation and channel hidden trouble investigation; the scoring standard comprises scores corresponding to different problems, single score and a total score calculation method; table 1 is a cable operation and maintenance information scoring table:
TABLE 1
5) Improving an analytic expression by using a correlation difference value and a scale as an independent variable and a response variable respectively, expanding the scale from an integer to a rational number, and determining performance test items T, DT, E and R of the medium-low voltage XLPE cablebAnd index weights of the operation and maintenance information item Y, F, A, L, denoted as wT, wDT, wE, and wR, respectivelyb、wY、wF、wA、wL；
6) Determining an evaluation total score and an accumulative weight factor calculation formula, wherein the evaluation total score is marked as G and is formed by test project scores and operation and maintenance information scores, and the accumulative weight factor is marked as W and is formed by all filled test project weights and operation and maintenance information project weights and represents the reliability of an evaluation result;
7) establishing a cable rating standard, determining the expected residual life and recommending operation and maintenance measures, and determining the cable rating according to the evaluation total score G, wherein the higher the evaluation total score G is, the worse the cable rating is, and the shorter the corresponding expected residual life is;
step 2: scoring the cable test items to be evaluated, and scoring four test items T, DT, E and R in an evaluation system according to the test item scoring standard determined in the step 1bScoring, and normalizing to get gT, gDT, gE, gRb；
And step 3: scoring the operation and maintenance information of the cable to be evaluated, scoring the four operation and maintenance information items Y, F, A, L in the evaluation system according to the cable operation and maintenance information scoring table constructed in the step 1, and respectively recording scoring results as gY, gF, gA and gL;
and 4, step 4: evaluating the residual life of the cable, namely calculating an evaluation total score G and an accumulated weight factor W, and obtaining the state rating, the expected life and the recommended operation and maintenance measures of the evaluated cable according to the cable rating standard determined in the step 1; meanwhile, the degree of the accumulative weight factor W represents the reliability of the evaluation result;
the accumulated weight factor represents the reliability of the evaluation result, the more complete the data is, the larger the accumulated weight factor is, and the higher the reliability of the result is; and (3) representing the length of the expected service life by cable rating, gradually reducing the expected service life of the cables according to the good, medium and poor sequence, further determining the maintenance sequence of the cables with the same rating according to the evaluation scores, and preferentially maintaining the cable line with the high score.
Compared with the prior art, the method has the following advantages:
1) the establishment of the evaluation system is based on big data collection, so that the problems that the correspondence between accelerated aging of a laboratory and actual operation aging on site is poor, and the evaluation result cannot effectively guide the reality are solved;
2) in order to enhance the engineering practicability, the performance test project mainly considers the field conventional test and avoids special test and destructive test;
3) items contained in the cable operation and maintenance information scoring table cover all factors influencing the cable retirement decision, and comprehensiveness is reflected;
4) the method of calculating the project weight by using the improved AHP method instead of artificially setting the value is utilized, so that the subjective influence is avoided;
5) the concept of the accumulative weight factor is provided, and the accumulative weight factor represents the reliability of the evaluation result, so that the evaluation system can be used under the condition of item shortage, the influence of the item shortage on the reliability of the evaluation result is reflected, and the practicability is improved on the premise of ensuring the scientificity;
6) the method for determining the maintenance sequence of the cables with the same rating according to the evaluation scores is provided, and the operation and maintenance work efficiency of the cables is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the scoring criteria for the test items of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the basic structure of the evaluation system of low-voltage XLPE cable according to the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a graph of an assessment summary versus cable rating.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
The invention provides a method for evaluating the service life of a medium and low voltage XLPE cable based on test data and operation and maintenance information, which comprises the following steps:
step 1: establishing a service life evaluation system of a medium-low voltage XLPE cable;
1) collecting and sorting big data;
the performance test data, operation and maintenance information and the like of the aged medium and low voltage XLPE cable in field operation in different operation years are comprehensively collected, and the performance test is mainly a non-destructive field test.
2) Analyzing the correlation;
analyzing the correlation between the cable test data and the operation life, and selecting test items meeting correlation conditions: t, DT, E, RbWas included in the evaluation system.
3) Determining a scoring standard of the test item;
according to the specification of the IEEE.Std.400.2-2013 on test items T and DT, and as shown in figure 1, cable test data is divided into 4 data sets according to different operating age ranges of cables, and the mass center of each data set is marked as Ai(i ═ 0, 1, 2, 3), and the standard deviation for each dataset is denoted as σi(i is 0, 1, 2 and 3), establishing a criterion with a score of 0 according to the data set centroid distribution of 0-5 years, establishing a criterion with a score of 1 according to the data set centroid distribution of 5-10 years, establishing a criterion with a score of 2 according to the data set centroid distribution of 10-20 years, and establishing a criterion with a score of 3 according to the data set centroid distribution of more than 20 years. As shown in FIG. 1, when the centroid distribution of the data set appears as A0And A1The intersection case of, or A1And A2The non-intersection condition of (2) and the intersection part or the non-intersection part are classified into the scoring criterion with higher score so as to ensure that the scoring system does not have the misjudgment condition. Table 2 shows the scoring criteria for the test items prepared.
TABLE 2
4) Constructing a cable operation and maintenance information scoring table, and determining related operation and maintenance items and scoring standards;
5) determining an index weight;
and (3) improving the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by using a formula (1) to obtain the weight of the cable evaluation index.
yb＝10x+1(1)
In the formula: x is the difference value of the correlation between each index and the operation age, and yb is the AHP scale.
The improved AHP method expands the scale from an integer of 0-9 to a rational number of 0-9, and the scale is determined by using the formula (1) so as to avoid subjective influence caused by direct giving of experts, so that the obtained consistency check is better, and the determined weight is more objective and reasonable.
Through the calculation of an improved AHP method, the determined index weight is as follows:
[wT:0.065,wE:0.474,wDT:0.045,wRb:0.105,wY:0.188，wL:0.013，wF:0.067，
wA:0.043]
6) determining an evaluation total score and an accumulated weight factor calculation formula;
and (3) recording the total service life evaluation score of the medium-low voltage XLPE cable as G, and recording the accumulated weight factor as W, wherein G is composed of test item scores and operation and maintenance information scores, and W is composed of all filled test item weights and operation and maintenance information item weights, as shown in FIG. 2. The calculation of the total evaluation score G and the cumulative index weight W is determined by a formula (2) and a formula (3), and if the effective content is not collected for grading in a certain test item or operation and maintenance information, the calculation of the total evaluation score G and the cumulative weight factor W is not included in the item.
In the formula: g1-G8Respectively gT, gE and gDT、gRb、gY、gL、gF、gA，wG1-wG8Respectively are wT, wE, wDT, wRb、wY、wL、wF、wA。
7) Establishing a cable rating standard, determining the expected residual life and recommending operation and maintenance measures;
as shown in fig. 3, the cable is divided into 4 evaluation grades of "good, medium and poor" according to the cable evaluation total score G from large to small, and the remaining life expectancy range and the recommended operation and maintenance measures of the cable are determined. The cable rating criteria are shown in table 3.
TABLE 3
Step 2: grading the cable test items to be evaluated;
test items for 6 field cables numbered 1# -6# were scored as shown in table 4.
TABLE 4
And step 3: scoring operation and maintenance information of the cable to be evaluated;
the operation and maintenance information for 6 field cables numbered 1# -6# were scored as shown in table 5.
TABLE 5
And 4, step 4: evaluating the residual life of the cable;
and (3) calculating the total evaluation scores and the accumulated weight factors of the 6 field operation cables, and determining the state rating, the residual life prediction range and the recommended operation and maintenance measures of the cables according to the cable rating standard determined in the step 1, as shown in a table 6.
TABLE 6
The actual running states of the 6 cables are poor, and as can be seen from table 6, the ratings of the 6 cables are 'medium' or 'poor', wherein the 3# cable and the outer sheath are damaged in insulation, the phase B is broken in the partial discharge measurement process, the overall insulation state is poor, the rating obtained by the state evaluation by the method is 'poor', the residual life is less than 1 year, and the cables need to be replaced in time; the 1# cable, among 6 cables, had a relatively good overall insulation status, rated "medium" by the status assessment performed by the method of the present invention, and rated 0.409, lower than the other cables. In conclusion, the service life evaluation result of the medium-voltage and low-voltage XLPE cable well reflects the actual condition of the cable.
As can be seen from table 6, the rating cumulative weight index of 6 cables is only 40.2%, but the method is not unavailable due to lack of test items or operation and maintenance information items; meanwhile, although the 1#, 2#, 4#, 5#, and 6# cables are rated as "medium", the priority of cable maintenance or replacement can still be determined according to the total evaluation score, which embodies the characteristic of strong applicability of the method.
In a word, the service life evaluation method for the medium and low voltage XLPE cable can well reflect the actual state of the cable, is convenient to apply and high in applicability, and can provide powerful guidance for cable asset management.
Claims (1)
1. A middle and low voltage XLPE cable service life assessment method based on test data and operation and maintenance information is characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: establishing a medium-low voltage XLPE cable residual life evaluation system:
1) the big data is collected and sorted out,
comprehensively collecting performance test data and operation and maintenance information of the aged medium and low voltage XLPE cable in field operation, wherein the performance test is mainly a nondestructive field test;
2) the analysis of the correlation is carried out,
the method comprises the following steps of analyzing the correlation between performance test data of the medium and low voltage XLPE cable and the operation life, wherein the test items meeting the set correlation conditions comprise: rated voltage U0Dielectric loss at lower 0.1HzMeasured value and voltage are respectively 2U0And U0The difference of the dielectric loss measurement value at the lower 0.1Hz, the gradual breakdown electric field intensity and the maximum unbalance of the three-phase insulation resistance are respectively recorded as T, DT, E and RbThe four test items are included in an evaluation system;
3) the scoring criteria for the test item is determined,
according to the specification of IEEE.Std.400.2-2013 on test items T and DT, and simultaneously according to the test data centroid distribution of cables in different operating age ranges, the scoring standard of the test items is formulated;
4) constructing a cable operation and maintenance information scoring table,
determining related operation and maintenance information items and grading standards; the operation and maintenance information items comprise four operation and maintenance information items of operation age, fault condition, operation environment and load level, which are respectively recorded as Y, F, A and L, wherein the operation environment is divided into four aspects of sheath condition, water invasion investigation, laying investigation and channel hidden trouble investigation; the scoring standard comprises scores corresponding to different problems, single score and a total score calculation method; table 1 is a cable operation and maintenance information scoring table:
TABLE 1
5) Improving the analytic expression by using the correlation difference value and the scale as the independent variable and the response variable respectively, expanding the scale from an integer to a rational number, and determining the performance test items T, DT, E and R of the medium-low voltage XLPE cablebAnd index weights of the operation and maintenance information item Y, F, A, L, denoted as wT, wDT, wE, and wR, respectivelyb、wY、wF、wA、wL；
6) Determining an evaluation total score and an accumulative weight factor calculation formula, wherein the evaluation total score is marked as G and is formed by test project scores and operation and maintenance information scores, and the accumulative weight factor is marked as W and is formed by all filled test project weights and operation and maintenance information project weights and represents the reliability of an evaluation result;
7) establishing a cable rating standard, determining the expected residual life and recommending operation and maintenance measures, and determining the cable rating according to the evaluation total score G, wherein the higher the evaluation total score G is, the worse the cable rating is, and the shorter the corresponding expected residual life is;
step 2: scoring the cable test items to be evaluated, and scoring four test items T, DT, E and R in an evaluation system according to the test item scoring standard determined in the step 1bScoring, and normalizing to get gT, gDT, gE, gRb；
And step 3: scoring the operation and maintenance information of the cable to be evaluated, scoring the four operation and maintenance information items Y, F, A, L in the evaluation system according to the cable operation and maintenance information scoring table constructed in the step 1, and respectively recording scoring results as gY, gF, gA and gL;
and 4, step 4: evaluating the residual life of the cable, namely calculating an evaluation total score G and an accumulated weight factor W, and obtaining the state rating, the expected life and the recommended operation and maintenance measures of the evaluated cable according to the cable rating standard determined in the step 1; meanwhile, the degree of the accumulative weight factor W represents the reliability of the evaluation result;
the accumulated weight factor represents the reliability of the evaluation result, the more complete the data is, the larger the accumulated weight factor is, and the higher the reliability of the result is; and (3) representing the length of the expected service life by cable rating, gradually reducing the expected service life of the cables according to the good, medium and poor sequence, further determining the maintenance sequence of the cables with the same rating according to the evaluation scores, and preferentially maintaining the cable line with the high score.
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| CN112084100B (en) * | 2020-09-11 | 2023-02-28 | 山东英信计算机技术有限公司 | Server operation and maintenance method, device and equipment and readable storage medium |
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| CN117767124B (en) * | 2023-11-10 | 2024-05-17 | 江苏诺金电气科技有限公司 | High-low voltage power distribution cabinet with fireproof monitoring function |
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