CN115456384A - Ship collision risk grade determining method and equipment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of ship traffic management, and discloses a method and equipment for determining a ship collision risk level, which comprises the steps of acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, the structural information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge, calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, calculating and determining the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge, calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, and determining the risk level of the ship colliding the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge. According to the method and the device, the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge can be judged, the risk disposal strategy corresponding to the risk level can be acquired, automatic early warning of the ship impacting the bridge is achieved, false alarm or missing report is not easy to occur, and accuracy and reliability of risk identification are improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ship traffic management, in particular to a ship collision risk grade determining method and equipment.
Background
Along with the trend that economic globalization can not be blocked, the global shipping industry is rapidly developed, the waterway transportation is generally accepted and accepted by the characteristics of low cost, large transportation quantity and the like, so a large number of ships are put into the waterway transportation to meet the transportation demand, but as the ship transportation is easily influenced by natural environment and has poor flexibility, and the sailing water area is increasingly busy and crowded, the accidents that the ships collide with bridges are more frequent, and then the overwater traffic accidents are caused to happen occasionally, so that property loss, casualties and environmental pollution of different degrees are caused.
At present, the determination of the risk level of a ship colliding with a bridge is the development trend of safe sailing of the ship at present, but the traditional collision risk calculation method mainly masters real-time dynamic information of the ship based on a ship-borne radar, but the ship-borne radar still has the defects of being susceptible to external environment and low in identification precision, and in addition, because the ship is influenced by factors such as channel environment, water level change, ship type, ship density and the like when running, the traditional risk level determination method is single, and the risk degree of the ship colliding with the bridge cannot be accurately reflected.
Therefore, how to provide a method for judging the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge is a technical problem to be solved at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method and equipment for determining a ship collision risk level, which are used for solving the technical problems that the risk level of a ship colliding a bridge cannot be effectively judged, risk treatment strategies corresponding to the risk level cannot be obtained, and further automatic early warning cannot be realized in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for determining a ship collision risk level, the method comprising:
step S100: acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, and the structural information of the bridge is pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge;
step S200: calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance;
step S300: calculating and determining annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge;
step S400: calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge;
step S500: and determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
In one embodiment, in the step S200, when calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, the method includes:
calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the following formula:
In the formula, PC is the bridge collapse probability, H is the bridge resistance, and P is the ship impact force.
In one embodiment, in the step S300, when the annual collision frequency of the bridge is calculated and determined according to the pier information of the bridge, the method includes:
step S310: acquiring all bridge pier numbers of the bridge, and acquiring initial annual collision frequency corresponding to each bridge pier number;
step S320: acquiring calculated water levels of the bridge, and acquiring annual occurrence probability of each calculated water level, wherein the calculated water levels are 6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m;
step S330: and comprehensively calculating the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the initial annual collision frequency corresponding to each pier number and the occurrence probability of each calculated water level.
In one embodiment, in the step S330, when the annual collision frequency of the bridge is comprehensively calculated according to the annual collision frequency corresponding to each pier number and the probability of occurrence of each calculated water level, the method includes:
comprehensively calculating the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the following formula:
in the formula, alpha i Calculating annual occurrence probability of water level for ith wi Calculating annual collision frequency, P, corresponding to pier numbers under the water level for the ith General (1) I =6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m for the annual collision frequency of the bridge.
In one embodiment, in the step S400, when the annual collapse frequency of the bridge is determined according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, the method includes:
and calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the following formula:
AF＝P general (1) ⅩPC；
In the formula, AF is the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, P General (1) The annual collision frequency of the bridge and the PC the bridge collapse probability.
In one embodiment, in the step S500, when determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, the method includes:
step S510: generating a risk probability level classification of the ship impacting the bridge according to a pre-set annual collapse frequency matrix of the bridge;
step S520: generating a risk result level classification of the ship impacting the bridge according to the state information;
step S530: and determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the risk probability level grading and the risk consequence level grading.
In one embodiment, in the step S510, when generating the risk probability level rating of the ship hitting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the preset bridge, the method includes:
presetting a annual collapse frequency matrix G of the bridge, and setting G (G1, G2, G3, G4, G5), wherein G1 is 10 -6 G2 is 10 -4 G3 is 10 -3 G4 is 10 -2 G5 is 10 -1 ；
Presetting a risk probability level grading matrix H of a ship impacting a bridge, and setting H (A, B, C, D, E), wherein the grade A is impossible, the grade B is rare, the grade C is rare, the grade D is occasional, the grade E is possible, and the grade F is frequent;
when a risk probability level of ship impact on the bridge is generated according to the relation between the annual collapse frequency AF of the bridge and the annual collapse frequency of each preset bridge:
when 10 -1 If the ship is less than AF, selecting a grade F as a risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -2 ＜AF＜10 -1 Then, selecting the grade E as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -3 ＜AF＜10 -2 Then, selecting the grade D as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -4 ＜AF＜10 -3 Then, selecting the grade C as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -6 ＜AF＜10 -4 Selecting the grade B as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when AF < 10 -6 Then, the level a is selected as the risk probability level of the ship hitting the bridge.
In one embodiment, in the step S520, when generating the classification of the risk result level of the ship colliding with the bridge according to the state information, the method includes:
obtaining a classification rule corresponding to the state information, wherein the state information is damage degree, economic loss and social influence of a structure;
and according to the classification rule, classifying the risk result level of the ship impacting the bridge into a grade 1, a grade 2, a grade 3, a grade 4 and a grade 5, wherein the grade 1 is negligible, the grade 2 is small, the grade 3 is medium, the grade 4 is severe, and the grade 5 is catastrophic.
In one embodiment, after determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, the method further comprises the following steps:
and calling risk disposal countermeasures according to the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge, and carrying out risk early warning according to the risk disposal countermeasures.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention also provides a boat collision risk level determination apparatus, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, and the structural information of the bridge is pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge;
the collapse probability calculation module is used for calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance;
the annual collision frequency calculation module is used for calculating and determining the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge;
the annual collapse frequency calculation module is used for calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge;
and the determining module is used for determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
The invention provides a method and equipment for determining a ship collision risk level, which have the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:
the invention discloses a method and equipment for determining a ship collision risk level, which comprises the steps of acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, the structural information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance, calculating and determining collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, calculating and determining annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge, calculating and determining annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, and determining the risk level of the ship colliding the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge. According to the method and the device, the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge can be judged, the risk disposal strategy corresponding to the risk level can be acquired, automatic early warning of the ship impacting the bridge is achieved, false alarm or missing report is not easy to occur, and accuracy and reliability of risk identification are improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart illustrating a method for determining a ship collision risk level according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating the calculation and determination of the annual collision frequency of a bridge according to the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 shows a schematic flow diagram of the method for determining the risk level of a ship impacting a bridge in an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a ship collision risk level determination device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the present invention is provided in connection with the accompanying drawings and examples. The following examples are intended to illustrate the invention but are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
In the description of the present application, it is to be understood that the terms "center", "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, merely for convenience of description and simplicity of description, and do not indicate or imply that the devices or elements referred to must have a particular orientation, be constructed in a particular orientation, and be operated, and thus, are not to be construed as limiting the present application.
The terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. In the description of the present application, the meaning of "a plurality" is two or more unless otherwise specified.
The following is a description of preferred embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for determining a ship collision risk level, including:
step S100: acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, and the structural information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge;
step S200: calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance;
step S300: calculating and determining annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge;
step S400: calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge;
step S500: and determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
It should be noted that, by acquiring the state information of the ship and the structural information of the bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, the structural information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge, the collapse probability of the bridge is determined according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, the annual collision frequency of the bridge is determined according to the bridge pier information, the annual collapse frequency of the bridge is determined according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, and the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge is determined according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge. According to the method and the device, the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge can be judged, the risk disposal strategy corresponding to the risk level can be acquired, automatic early warning of the ship impacting the bridge is achieved, false alarm or missing report is not easy to occur, and accuracy and reliability of risk identification are improved.
In some embodiments of the present application, in the step S200, when calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, the method includes:
calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the following formula:
In the formula, PC is the collapse probability of the bridge, H is the resistance of the bridge, and P is the impact force of the ship.
It should be noted that the bridge resistance can be measured according to actual conditions, for example, the bridge resistance is 6.4MN, 12.8MN, etc., and is not specifically limited herein, and the ship impact force can be measured according to actual conditions, and is not specifically limited herein.
As shown in fig. 2, in some embodiments of the present application, in the step S300, when the annual collision frequency of the bridge is calculated and determined according to the pier information of the bridge, the method includes:
step S310: acquiring all bridge pier numbers of the bridge, and acquiring initial annual collision frequency corresponding to each bridge pier number;
step S320: acquiring calculated water levels of the bridge, and acquiring annual occurrence probability of each calculated water level, wherein the calculated water levels are 6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m;
step S330: and comprehensively calculating the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the initial annual collision frequency corresponding to each pier number and the occurrence probability of each calculated water level.
In some embodiments of the present application, in the step S330, when the annual collision frequency of the bridge is comprehensively calculated according to the annual collision frequency corresponding to each pier number and the probability of occurrence of each calculated water level, the method includes:
comprehensively calculating the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the following formula:
in the formula, alpha i Calculating for the ith the probability of occurrence of the water level, P wi Calculating annual collision frequency, P, corresponding to pier number under water level for ith General (1) I =6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m for the annual collision frequency of the bridge.
It should be noted that the bridge pier number of the bridge may be: p4, P5, P6, P7, P8, P9, P10, P11, P12, P13, P14, etc., and the calculated water level of the bridge is, without being particularly limited thereto: 6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m, wherein the annual occurrence probability corresponding to the calculated water level of 6.4m is 3%, the annual occurrence probability corresponding to the calculated water level of 3.5m is 90%, and the annual occurrence probability corresponding to the calculated water level of 0.67m is 7%, for example, at the calculated water level of 6.4m, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P4 is 2.978E-04, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P5 is 5.170E-04, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P6 is 8.342E-04, at the calculated water level of 3.5m, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P4 is 1.978E-02, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P5 is 8.706E-03, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P6 is 1.511E-02, at the calculated water level of 0.67m, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P4 is 8.706E-03, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P5 is 4.981E-01, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P6 is 6.812E-04, after the annual occurrence probabilities of different water levels are comprehensively considered, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P4 is 7.892E-03, the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P5 is 1.370E-02, and the annual collision frequency corresponding to the pier number P6 is 2.210E-02.
In some embodiments of the present application, in the step S400, when determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, the method includes:
calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the following formula:
AF＝P general assembly ⅩPC；
In the formula, AF is the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, P General assembly The annual collision frequency of the bridge and the PC the bridge collapse probability.
It should be noted that the annual collapse frequency of the bridge is comprehensively calculated through the annual collision frequency and the bridge collapse probability of the bridge, and then the risk level judgment of the ship impacting the bridge is realized through the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
As shown in fig. 3, in some embodiments of the present application, in the step S500, determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge includes:
step S510: generating a risk probability level classification of the ship impacting the bridge according to a pre-set annual collapse frequency matrix of the bridge;
step S520: generating a risk result level classification of the ship impacting the bridge according to the state information;
step S530: and determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the risk probability level grading and the risk consequence level grading.
In some embodiments of the application, in the step S510, generating a risk probability level rating of the ship impacting the bridge according to a pre-set annual collapse frequency of the bridge includes:
presetting a annual collapse frequency matrix G of the bridge, and setting G (G1, G2, G3, G4, G5), wherein G1 is 10 -6 G2 is 10 -4 G3 is 10 -3 G4 is 10 -2 G5 is 10 -1 ；
Presetting a risk probability level grading matrix H of a ship impacting a bridge, and setting H (A, B, C, D, E), wherein the grade A is impossible, the grade B is rare, the grade C is rare, the grade D is occasional, the grade E is possible, and the grade F is frequent;
when the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge is generated according to the relationship between the annual collapse frequency AF of the bridge and the annual collapse frequency of each preset bridge:
when 10 -1 If the ship is less than AF, selecting a grade F as a risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -2 ＜AF＜10 -1 Then, selecting the grade E as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -3 ＜AF＜10 -2 Then, selecting the grade D as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -4 ＜AF＜10 -3 Then, selecting the grade C as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -6 ＜AF＜10 -4 When the level B is selected to beIs the risk probability level of the vessel impacting the bridge;
when AF < 10 -6 Then, the level a is selected as the risk probability level of the ship hitting the bridge.
It should be noted that, in the present application, a risk probability level of a ship hitting a bridge is generated according to a relationship between an annual collapse frequency AF of the bridge and an annual collapse frequency of each preset bridge, where a level a is impossible, and specifically is: it seems unlikely, but there is still a possibility of occurrence, only in very individual cases; grade B is less commonly available, specifically: although not possible, it can happen for reasons, only in a few cases, with a grade C being uncommon, in particular: it is reasonable to happen, but the number of occurrences is not large, and the level D is occasional, specifically: it may happen, possibly many times, that a level E is possible, in particular: in most cases it may happen that the frequency is two or three, the class F being frequent, in particular: the method and the device can be used for judging the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge by generating the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge.
In some embodiments of the present application, in the step S520, generating a risk result level rating of the ship hitting the bridge according to the state information includes:
obtaining a classification rule corresponding to the state information, wherein the state information is damage degree, economic loss and social influence of a structure;
and according to the classification rule, classifying the risk result level of the ship impacting the bridge into a grade 1, a grade 2, a grade 3, a grade 4 and a grade 5, wherein the grade 1 is negligible, the grade 2 is small, the grade 3 is medium, the grade 4 is severe, and the grade 5 is catastrophic.
It should be noted that, when the classification rule corresponding to the state information is obtained and the risk consequence level classification is performed according to the corresponding classification rule, the specific classification condition is as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
It should be further noted that, when determining the risk level of a ship impacting the bridge according to the risk probability level classification and the risk consequence level classification, specific classification conditions are as shown in table 2:
TABLE 2
It should be further noted that the risk grade of the ship impacting the bridge is determined through the generated risk probability grade and risk consequence grade, so that the risk grade of the ship impacting the bridge can be judged, false alarm or missing alarm is not easy to occur, and the accuracy and reliability of risk identification are improved.
In some embodiments of the present application, after determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, the method further comprises:
and calling risk disposal countermeasures according to the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge, and carrying out risk early warning according to the risk disposal countermeasures.
It should be noted that, according to the present application, a risk disposal countermeasure may be invoked according to a risk level of a ship impacting a bridge, and risk pre-warning may be performed according to the risk disposal countermeasure, where a specific case of invoking the risk disposal countermeasure according to the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge is shown in table 3:
TABLE 3
According to the method and the device, risk disposal countermeasures are called according to the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge, risk early warning is carried out according to the risk disposal countermeasures, automatic early warning of the ship impacting the bridge can be achieved, false reports or missing reports are not prone to occurring, and accuracy and reliability of risk identification are improved.
As shown in fig. 4, the present application also discloses a boat collision risk level determination apparatus, characterized in that the apparatus comprises:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, and the structural information of the bridge is pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge;
the collapse probability calculation module is used for calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance;
the annual collision frequency calculation module is used for calculating and determining the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge;
the annual collapse frequency calculation module is used for calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge;
and the determining module is used for determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
To sum up, the embodiment of the invention obtains the state information of the ship and the structure information of the bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, the structure information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance, the collapse probability of the bridge is determined according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, the annual collision frequency of the bridge is determined according to the bridge pier information, the annual collapse frequency of the bridge is determined according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, and the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge is determined according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge. According to the method and the device, the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge can be judged, the risk disposal strategy corresponding to the risk level can be acquired, automatic early warning of the ship impacting the bridge is achieved, false alarm or missing report is not easy to occur, and accuracy and reliability of risk identification are improved.
In the foregoing description of embodiments, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
Throughout the description of the present application, it is to be noted that, unless otherwise expressly specified or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly, e.g., as meaning either a fixed connection, a removable connection, or an integral connection; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present application can be understood in a specific case by those of ordinary skill in the art.
While the invention has been described above with reference to an embodiment, various modifications may be made and equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof without departing from the scope of the invention. In particular, the various features of the disclosed embodiments of the invention can be used in any combination with one another as long as there is no structural conflict, and nothing in this specification should be taken as a complete description of such combinations for the sake of brevity and resource savings. Therefore, it is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiments disclosed, but that the invention will include all embodiments falling within the scope of the appended claims.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand that: although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art will understand that various changes, modifications and substitutions can be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made without departing from the spirit and principle of the present invention shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining a boat collision risk level, the method comprising:
step S100: acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, wherein the state information of the ship is ship impact force, and the structural information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge;
step S200: calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance;
step S300: calculating and determining annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information of the bridge;
step S400: calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge;
step S500: and determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
2. The method for determining a ship collision risk level according to claim 1, wherein in step S200, when determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance, the method comprises:
calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the following formula:
In the formula, PC is the bridge collapse probability, H is the bridge resistance, and P is the ship impact force.
3. The ship collision risk level determination method according to claim 2, wherein in the step S300, when determining the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the bridge pier information calculation, the method comprises:
step S310: acquiring all bridge pier numbers of the bridge, and acquiring initial annual collision frequency corresponding to each bridge pier number;
step S320: acquiring calculated water levels of the bridge, and acquiring annual occurrence probability of each calculated water level, wherein the calculated water levels are 6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m;
step S330: and comprehensively calculating the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the initial annual collision frequency corresponding to each pier number and the occurrence probability of each calculated water level.
4. The method for determining the ship collision risk level according to claim 3, wherein in the step S330, when the annual collision frequency of the bridge is comprehensively calculated according to the annual collision frequency corresponding to each bridge pier number and the occurrence probability of each calculated water level, the method comprises the following steps:
comprehensively calculating the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the following formula:
in the formula, alpha i Calculating annual occurrence probability, P, of water level for ith wi Calculating annual collision frequency, P, corresponding to pier number under water level for ith General (1) I =6.4m, 3.5m and 0.67m for the annual collision frequency of the bridge.
5. The ship collision risk level determination method according to claim 4, wherein in the step S400, when the annual collapse frequency of the bridge is determined by calculation according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge, the method comprises the following steps:
and calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the following formula:
AF＝P general assembly ⅩPC；
In which AF is a bridgeFrequency of annual collapse, P General assembly The annual collision frequency of the bridge and the PC the bridge collapse probability.
6. The ship collision risk level determination method according to claim 1, wherein in the step S500, when determining the risk level of the ship colliding with the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, the method comprises:
step S510: generating a risk probability level classification of the ship impacting the bridge according to a pre-set annual collapse frequency matrix of the bridge;
step S520: generating a risk consequence level classification of the ship impacting the bridge according to the state information;
step S530: and determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the risk probability level grading and the risk consequence level grading.
7. The ship collision risk level determination method according to claim 6, wherein in the step S510, when generating the risk probability level classification of ship collision against the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the preset bridge, the method comprises:
presetting a annual collapse frequency matrix G of the bridge, and setting G (G1, G2, G3, G4, G5), wherein G1 is 10 -6 G2 is 10 -4 G3 is 10 -3 G4 is 10 -2 G5 is 10 -1 ；
Presetting a risk probability level grading matrix H of a ship impacting a bridge, and setting H (A, B, C, D, E), wherein the grade A is impossible, the grade B is rare, the grade C is rare, the grade D is occasional, the grade E is possible, and the grade F is frequent;
when the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge is generated according to the relationship between the annual collapse frequency AF of the bridge and the annual collapse frequency of each preset bridge:
when 10 -1 If the ship is less than AF, selecting a grade F as a risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -2 ＜AF＜10 -1 Then, selecting the grade E as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -3 ＜AF＜10 -2 Then, selecting the grade D as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -4 ＜AF＜10 -3 Then, selecting the grade C as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when 10 -6 ＜AF＜10 -4 Then, selecting the grade B as the risk probability level of the ship impacting the bridge;
when AF < 10 -6 Then, the level a is selected as the risk probability level of the ship hitting the bridge.
8. The method for determining the ship collision risk level according to claim 6, wherein in step S520, when generating the level classification of the risk result of the ship colliding with the bridge according to the state information, the method comprises:
obtaining a classification rule corresponding to the state information, wherein the state information is damage degree, economic loss and social influence of a structure;
and according to the classification rule, classifying the risk result level of the ship impacting the bridge into a grade 1, a grade 2, a grade 3, a grade 4 and a grade 5, wherein the grade 1 is negligible, the grade 2 is small, the grade 3 is medium, the grade 4 is severe, and the grade 5 is catastrophic.
9. The ship collision risk level determination method according to claim 1, wherein after determining the risk level of a ship colliding with a bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge, further comprising:
and calling a risk handling strategy according to the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge, and carrying out risk early warning according to the risk handling strategy.
10. A boat collision risk level determination apparatus, characterized in that the apparatus comprises:
the system comprises an acquisition module, a judgment module and a control module, wherein the acquisition module is used for acquiring state information of a ship and structural information of a bridge, the state information of the ship is ship impact force, and the structural information of the bridge is bridge pier information and bridge resistance of the bridge;
the collapse probability calculation module is used for calculating and determining the collapse probability of the bridge according to the ship impact force and the bridge resistance;
the annual collision frequency calculation module is used for calculating and determining the annual collision frequency of the bridge according to the pier information of the bridge;
the annual collapse frequency calculation module is used for calculating and determining the annual collapse frequency of the bridge according to the collapse probability of the bridge and the annual collision frequency of the bridge;
and the determining module is used for determining the risk level of the ship impacting the bridge according to the annual collapse frequency of the bridge.
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| CN117576951A (en) * | 2024-01-16 | 2024-02-20 | 宁波朗达工程科技有限公司 | Cross-sea bridge active early warning method based on ship collision risk probability identification |
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