CN115345260B - Method and device for identifying fragile line of power transmission network under ice disaster and storage medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method, a device and a storage medium for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters; determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating; on the basis of the fault probability of each line, adopting Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to the line cascading fault accident chains; wherein each element in the cascading failure incidence matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line; determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines. By implementing the method, the fragile line in the power transmission network under ice disasters can be effectively identified.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method and a device for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters and a storage medium.
Background
The ice disaster is a small-probability high-risk extreme disaster event, causes huge economic loss to the power grid and brings severe safety test. The influence of ice disasters on a power grid is mainly reflected in ice coating thickness, and particularly for long-distance power transmission lines, the heavy ice coating can possibly cause the risk of line breakage of partial lines, and further cause large-scale cascading failures. Particularly, some of the vulnerable lines are more likely to fail in the face of ice damage and cause more serious economic loss and safety accidents due to their importance in the system and their geographical locations. Therefore, the identification of the vulnerable link of the power grid in ice disasters has important significance for improving the elasticity of the power grid and reducing risks. How to identify the vulnerable line in the power transmission network under ice disaster is a problem which needs to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters and a storage medium, which can effectively identify the fragile line in the power transmission network under ice disasters.
An embodiment of the invention provides a method for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters, which comprises the following steps:
determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters;
determining the fault probability of each line according to the icing thickness;
on the basis of the fault probability of each line, adopting Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to each line cascading fault accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the correlation weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
Further, the method for identifying the fragile line of the power transmission network in the ice disaster further comprises the following steps: mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
Further, the determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster specifically includes: acquiring weather data of an area where each line of a power transmission network is located; wherein the weather data comprises: duration of freezing rain, rainfall, water content in air and wind speed; calculating the icing thickness of each line according to a preset icing model and each weather data; the ice coating model comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in order to obtain the thickness of the ice coating,
the duration of the freezing rain is the duration of the freezing rain,
in order to obtain the amount of rainfall, the rainfall is,
is the water content in the air and is,
it is the density of the ice that is,
is the density of the water and is,
is the wind speed.
Further, the determining the fault probability of each line according to each ice coating thickness includes: determining the fault probability of each line according to a preset power transmission line fault probability model and each icing thickness;
the power transmission line fault probability model is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the line fault probability;
is a preset icing thickness threshold.
On the basis of the above method item embodiment, the present invention correspondingly provides an apparatus item embodiment:
an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster, including: the system comprises an icing thickness determining module, a fault probability determining module, a cascading fault incidence matrix constructing module, a node weight degree determining module and a fragile line determining module;
the ice coating thickness determining module is used for determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster;
the fault probability determining module is used for determining the fault probability of each line according to each icing thickness;
the cascading failure incidence matrix building module is used for obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the failure probability of each line, and building a cascading failure incidence matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
the node weight degree determining module is used for determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and the fragile line determining module is used for taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
Further, the vulnerable circuit identification device of power transmission network under ice disaster still includes: a vulnerability determination module;
the vulnerability determining module is used for mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
On the basis of the above method item embodiments, the present invention correspondingly provides storage medium item embodiments;
an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, where the storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, a device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute any one of the methods for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to the present invention.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device and a storage medium for identifying fragile lines of a power transmission network under ice disasters, wherein the method comprises the steps of calculating the fault probability of each line according to the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters, then obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the fault probability of each line, and constructing a cascading failure correlation matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; and then determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix, wherein the larger the node degree is, the larger the fault correlation of the corresponding line and other lines is, the more fragile the corresponding line is, and finally determining the fragile line in the power transmission network according to the node weight degree.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic view of a structure of a device for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without inventive step based on the embodiments of the present invention, are within the scope of protection of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster, including the following steps:
and S101, determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters.
Step S102: and determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating.
Step S103: on the basis of the fault probability of each line, obtaining a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to each line cascading fault accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: and the element corresponds to the associated weight of the fault line and another fault line.
Step S104: and determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix.
Step S105: and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
For step S101, in a preferred embodiment, the determining the thickness of ice coating on each line in the power transmission network under ice damage specifically includes:
acquiring weather data of an area where each line of the power transmission network is located; wherein the weather data comprises: duration of freezing rain, rainfall, water content in air and wind speed;
calculating the icing thickness of each line according to a preset icing model and each weather data;
the ice coating model comprises the following steps:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
in order to obtain the thickness of the ice coating,
in order to maintain the duration of the freezing rain,
in order to obtain the amount of rainfall falling,
is the water content in the air and is,
it is the density of the ice that is,
is the density of the water and is,
is the wind speed.
For step S102, in a preferred embodiment, the determining the fault probability of each line according to each ice coating thickness includes:
determining the fault probability of each line according to a preset power transmission line fault probability model and the icing thickness;
the transmission line fault probability model is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the line fault probability;
is a preset icing thickness threshold.
In the invention, when the ice thickness is coated on the surface of the line
Not exceeding a preset ice coating thickness threshold
In time, the transmission line is normally operated, and the line fault probability
Is 0; when ice coating thickness on line surface
When the circuit is in failure, the element is in failure and stops running, and the probability of line failure
Is 1; when ice coating thickness on line surface
Greater than a predetermined ice coating thickness threshold
And less than twice the preset ice coating thickness threshold
Probability of line failure due to ice coating
The thickness of the ice coated on the line is increased exponentially, namely:
specifically, in step S103, a large number of chain fault accident chains of the lines under the ice disaster are obtained by adopting Monte Carlo to simulate based on the fault probability of each line, and each accident chain comprises a fault line node pair
And a pair of fault line nodes
In that
Number of occurrences in sub-simulation
And a line
And (4) system load size information before and after the fault. Based on the information, a cascading failure correlation diagram is constructed, which is defined as a correlation matrix
(i.e. the above-mentioned cascading failure correlation matrix),
is composed of
The matrix of real numbers of (a) is,
for sharing fault lines in all simulationsAnd (4) counting. Cascading failure correlation matrix
Element (1) of
The corresponding fault line is
Which is shown as
And
associated weights of, particular elements
Is defined as follows:
For step S104, specifically, each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix corresponds to a line (or a line node); the node weight degree of each line can be calculated by the following formula:
For step S105, the node weight degree is larger, which shows that the fault correlation of the corresponding line and other lines is larger, and the node is weaker; illustratively, the value of M may be 5, that is, the first 5 lines with the highest node weight degree may be used as the vulnerable lines. It is understood that the value of M may be adjusted according to actual conditions.
In a preferred embodiment, the method for identifying the vulnerable line of the power transmission network in the ice disaster further comprises the following steps: mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
In this embodiment, the Node2vec algorithm is used to map the above-mentioned cascading failure correlation matrix into a low-dimensional vector, and in the low-dimensional vector space, the distances between nodes with similar properties are as close as possible. According to the property, the Euclidean distance between the unknown fragile line and the low-dimensional mapping vector of the fragile line is calculated, and the vulnerability of the unknown fragile line is finally determined according to the Euclidean distance. Schematically, it is assumed that the corresponding lines in a cascading failure correlation matrix include line a, line B, line C and line D, where line a and line B are the fragile lines determined according to the above step S105; the line C and the line D are the unknown vulnerability lines described in the present invention; at this time, the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line C and the vector corresponding to the line a (referred to as a first euclidean distance), the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line C and the vector corresponding to the line B (referred to as a second euclidean distance), the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line D and the vector corresponding to the line a (referred to as a third euclidean distance), and the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line D and the vector corresponding to the line B (referred to as a fourth euclidean distance) are calculated, and if the first euclidean distance is smaller than the second euclidean distance with respect to the line C, the vulnerability of the line C is close to the vulnerability of the line a. Similarly, if the fourth euclidean distance is smaller than the third euclidean distance for the line D, it is determined that the vulnerability of the line D is close to the vulnerability of the line B, and at this time, the vulnerability of the line D is equal to the vulnerability of the line B in the present invention.
On the basis of the embodiment of the method item, the invention correspondingly provides an embodiment of a device item;
as shown in fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster, including: the system comprises an icing thickness determining module, a fault probability determining module, a cascading fault incidence matrix constructing module, a node weight degree determining module, a fragile line determining module and a vulnerability determining module;
the ice coating thickness determining module is used for determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster;
the fault probability determining module is used for determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating;
the cascading failure incidence matrix building module is used for obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the failure probability of each line, and building a cascading failure incidence matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
the node weight degree determining module is used for determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
the fragile line determining module is used for taking the first M lines with the largest node weight degree as fragile lines;
the vulnerability determining module is used for mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
It should be noted that the above-described device embodiments are merely illustrative, where the units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and the parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present embodiment. In addition, in the drawings of the embodiment of the apparatus provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, and may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. One of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without inventive effort.
It can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the apparatus described above may refer to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiment, and is not described herein again.
On the basis of the embodiment of the method item, the invention correspondingly provides an embodiment of a storage medium item;
an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, where the storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, a device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute any one of the methods for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to the present invention.
The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, in which the computer program is stored, which computer program, when being executed by a processor, is adapted to carry out the steps of the above-mentioned respective method embodiments. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, U.S. disk, removable hard disk, magnetic diskette, optical disk, computer Memory, read-Only Memory (ROM), random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signal, telecommunications signal, and software distribution medium, etc. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (5)
1. A method for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters;
determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating;
on the basis of the fault probability of each line, adopting Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to each line cascading fault accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the correlation weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degree as fragile lines, and determining the vulnerability of each unknown fragile line according to the fragile lines; wherein said determining the vulnerability of each unknown line of vulnerability from said line of vulnerability comprises: mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
2. The method for identifying the vulnerable line of the power transmission network under the ice disaster according to claim 1, wherein the determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster specifically comprises:
acquiring weather data of an area where each line of a power transmission network is located; wherein the weather data comprises: duration of freezing rain, rainfall, water content in air and wind speed;
calculating the icing thickness of each line according to a preset icing model and each weather data;
the ice coating model comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in order to obtain the thickness of the ice coating,
in order to maintain the duration of the freezing rain,
in order to obtain the amount of rainfall falling,
is the water content in the air and is,
it is the density of the ice that is,
is the density of the water and is,
is the wind speed.
3. The method for identifying vulnerable lines of a power transmission network under ice damage as claimed in claim 2, wherein said determining the failure probability of each line according to each of said ice coating thicknesses comprises:
determining the fault probability of each line according to a preset power transmission line fault probability model and the icing thickness;
the power transmission line fault probability model is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is the line fault probability;
is a preset icing thickness threshold.
4. The utility model provides a fragile circuit identification device of transmission network under ice disaster which characterized in that includes: the system comprises an icing thickness determining module, a fault probability determining module, a cascading fault incidence matrix constructing module, a node weight degree determining module, a fragile line determining module and a vulnerability determining module;
the ice coating thickness determining module is used for determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters;
the fault probability determining module is used for determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating;
the cascading failure incidence matrix building module is used for obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the failure probability of each line, and building a cascading failure incidence matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the correlation weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
the node weight degree determining module is used for determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
the fragile line determining module is used for taking the first M lines with the largest node weight degree as fragile lines;
the vulnerability determining module is used for determining the vulnerability of each unknown vulnerability line according to the vulnerability line; wherein said determining the vulnerability of each unknown line of vulnerability from said line of vulnerability comprises: mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
5. A storage medium comprising a stored computer program, wherein the computer program is configured to control a device on which the storage medium is located to perform the method for identifying a vulnerable line in an ice damage grid according to any one of claims 1 to 3 when the computer program is run.
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