CN115345260A - Method, device, equipment and storage medium for identifying fragile line of power transmission network under ice disaster - Google Patents
Method, device, equipment and storage medium for identifying fragile line of power transmission network under ice disaster Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters; determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating; on the basis of the fault probability of each line, adopting Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to the line cascading fault accident chains; wherein each element in the cascading failure incidence matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line; determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines. By implementing the method, the fragile line in the power transmission network under ice disasters can be effectively identified.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters.
Background
The ice disaster is a small-probability high-risk extreme disaster event, causes huge economic loss to the power grid and brings severe safety test. The influence of ice disasters on a power grid is mainly reflected in the thickness of ice coating, and particularly for long-distance power transmission lines, the risk of line breakage of partial lines is probably caused by thick and heavy ice coating, so that large-scale cascading failure is caused. Particularly, some of the vulnerable lines are more likely to fail in the face of ice damage and cause more serious economic loss and safety accidents due to their importance in the system and their geographical locations. Therefore, the identification of the vulnerable link of the power grid in ice disasters has important significance for improving the elasticity of the power grid and reducing risks. How to identify the vulnerable line in the power transmission network under ice disaster is a problem which needs to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters, which can effectively identify the fragile line in the power transmission network under ice disasters.
An embodiment of the invention provides a method for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters, which comprises the following steps:
determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters;
determining the fault probability of each line according to the icing thickness;
on the basis of the fault probability of each line, obtaining a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to each line cascading fault accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the correlation weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
Further, the method for identifying the fragile line of the power transmission network in the ice disaster further comprises the following steps: mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
Further, the determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster specifically includes: acquiring weather data of an area where each line of a power transmission network is located; wherein the weather data comprises: duration of freezing rain, rainfall, water content in air and wind speed; calculating the icing thickness of each line according to a preset icing model and each weather data; the ice coating model comprises the following steps:
wherein,in order to obtain the thickness of the ice coating,in order to maintain the duration of the freezing rain,in order to obtain the amount of rainfall falling,is the water content in the air and is,it is the density of the ice that is,is the density of the water and is,is the wind speed.
Further, the determining the fault probability of each line according to each ice coating thickness includes: determining the fault probability of each line according to a preset power transmission line fault probability model and the icing thickness;
the transmission line fault probability model is as follows:
On the basis of the above method item embodiment, the present invention correspondingly provides an apparatus item embodiment:
an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster, including: the system comprises an icing thickness determining module, a fault probability determining module, a cascading fault incidence matrix constructing module, a node weight degree determining module and a fragile line determining module;
the ice coating thickness determining module is used for determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster;
the fault probability determining module is used for determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating;
the cascading failure incidence matrix building module is used for obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the failure probability of each line, and building a cascading failure incidence matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
the node weight degree determining module is used for determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and the fragile line determining module is used for taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
Further, the vulnerable circuit identification device of power transmission network under ice disaster still includes: a vulnerability determination module;
the vulnerability determining module is used for mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
On the basis of the embodiment of the method item, the invention correspondingly provides an embodiment of the equipment item;
an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, the processor implements the method for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network under ice damage according to any one of the present invention.
On the basis of the above method item embodiments, the present invention correspondingly provides storage medium item embodiments;
an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, where the storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, a device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute any one of the methods for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to the present invention.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the embodiment of the invention provides a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters, wherein the method comprises the steps of calculating the fault probability of each line according to the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters, then obtaining a plurality of chain fault accident chains of the lines by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the fault probability of each line, and constructing a chain fault incidence matrix according to the chain fault accident chains of each line; and then determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix, wherein the larger the node degree is, the larger the fault correlation of the corresponding line and other lines is, the more fragile the corresponding line is, and finally determining the fragile line in the power transmission network according to the node weight degree.
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Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic view of a structure of a device for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster, including the following steps:
and S101, determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters.
Step S102: and determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating.
Step S103: on the basis of the fault probability of each line, obtaining a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to each line cascading fault accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: and the element corresponds to the associated weight of the fault line and another fault line.
Step S104: and determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix.
Step S105: and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
For step S101, in a preferred embodiment, the determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network in the ice disaster specifically includes:
acquiring weather data of an area where each line of a power transmission network is located; wherein the weather data comprises: duration of freezing rain, rainfall, water content in air and wind speed;
calculating the icing thickness of each line according to a preset icing model and each weather data;
the ice coating model comprises the following steps:
wherein,in order to obtain the thickness of the ice coating,in order to maintain the duration of the freezing rain,in order to obtain the amount of rainfall falling,is the water content in the air, and is,it is the density of the ice that is,is the density of the water and is,is the wind speed.
In a preferred embodiment, the determining the fault probability of each line according to each ice coating thickness comprises:
determining the fault probability of each line according to a preset power transmission line fault probability model and the icing thickness;
the transmission line fault probability model is as follows:
In the invention, when the ice thickness is coated on the surface of the lineNot exceeding a preset ice coating thickness thresholdIn time, the transmission line is normally operated, and the line fault probabilityIs 0; thickness of ice coating on line surfaceWhen the circuit is in failure, the element is in failure and stops running, and the probability of line failureIs 1; thickness of ice coating on line surfaceGreater than a predetermined ice coating thickness thresholdAnd less than twice the preset ice coating thickness thresholdProbability of line failure due to ice coatingThe thickness of the ice coated on the line increases exponentially, namely:
specifically, in step S103, a large number of chain fault accident chains of the lines under the ice disaster are obtained by adopting Monte Carlo to simulate based on the fault probability of each line, and each accident chain comprises a fault line node pairAnd a pair of fault line nodesIn thatAppearing in sub-simulationNumber of timesAnd a lineAnd (4) system load size information before and after the fault. Based on the information, a cascading failure correlation diagram is constructed, which is defined as a correlation matrix(i.e. the above-mentioned cascading failure correlation matrix),is composed ofThe matrix of real numbers of (a) is,the number of fault lines in all simulations is shared. Cascading failure correlation matrixElement (1) ofThe corresponding fault line isWhich is shown asAndassociated weights of, particular elementsIs defined as:
(ii) a In the formula, s is the number of the s stages of the mth simulation, and a fault is marked as one stage when each fault occurs in the process of one simulation;is the system load amount of the s-th stage in the m-th simulation,the number of lines with faults of the power transmission network in the s stage in the mth simulation is shown, and Z is an index value.
For step S104, specifically, each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix corresponds to a line (or a line node); the node weight degree of each line can be calculated by the following formula:
In step S105, the node weight degree is larger, which indicates that the fault correlation of the corresponding line and the faults of other lines is larger and weaker; illustratively, the value of M may be 5, that is, the first 5 lines with the highest node weight degree may be used as the vulnerable lines. It is understood that the value of M may be adjusted according to actual conditions.
In a preferred embodiment, the method for identifying the vulnerable line of the power transmission network in the ice disaster further comprises the following steps: mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
In this embodiment, the Node2vec algorithm is used to map the above-mentioned cascading failure correlation matrix into a low-dimensional vector, and in the low-dimensional vector space, the distances between nodes with similar properties are as close as possible. According to the property, the Euclidean distance between the unknown fragile line and the low-dimensional mapping vector of the fragile line is calculated, and the vulnerability of the unknown fragile line is finally determined according to the Euclidean distance. Schematically, it is assumed that the corresponding lines in a cascading failure correlation matrix include line a, line B, line C and line D, where line a and line B are the fragile lines determined according to the above step S105; the line C and the line D are the unknown vulnerability lines described in the present invention; at this time, the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line C and the vector corresponding to the line a (referred to as a first euclidean distance), the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line C and the vector corresponding to the line B (referred to as a second euclidean distance), the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line D and the vector corresponding to the line a (referred to as a third euclidean distance), and the euclidean distance between the vector corresponding to the line D and the vector corresponding to the line B (referred to as a fourth euclidean distance) are calculated, and if the first euclidean distance is smaller than the second euclidean distance with respect to the line C, the vulnerability of the line C is close to the vulnerability of the line a. Similarly, if the fourth euclidean distance is smaller than the third euclidean distance for the line D, it is determined that the vulnerability of the line D is close to the vulnerability of the line B, and at this time, the vulnerability of the line D is equal to the vulnerability of the line B in the present invention.
On the basis of the embodiment of the method item, the invention correspondingly provides an embodiment of a device item;
as shown in fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster, including: the system comprises an icing thickness determining module, a fault probability determining module, a cascading fault incidence matrix constructing module, a node weight degree determining module, a fragile line determining module and a vulnerability determining module;
the ice coating thickness determining module is used for determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster;
the fault probability determining module is used for determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating;
the cascading failure incidence matrix building module is used for obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the failure probability of each line, and building a cascading failure incidence matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
the node weight degree determining module is used for determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
the fragile line determining module is used for taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines;
the vulnerability determining module is used for mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
It should be noted that the above-described device embodiments are merely illustrative, where the units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and the parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present embodiment. In addition, in the drawings of the embodiment of the apparatus provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, and may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. One of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without inventive effort.
It can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the apparatus described above may refer to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiment, and is not described herein again.
On the basis of the embodiment of the method item, the invention correspondingly provides an embodiment of the equipment item;
an embodiment of the present invention provides an apparatus, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, the processor implements the method for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network under ice damage according to any one of the present invention.
The above-mentioned equipment can be the computing equipment such as desktop computer, notebook, palmtop computer and cloud server. The apparatus may include, but is not limited to, a processor, a memory.
The Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like, said processor being the control center of said terminal device, and various interfaces and lines are used to connect the various parts of the whole terminal device.
The memory may be used to store the computer program, and the processor may implement various functions of the terminal device by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory and calling data stored in the memory. The memory may mainly include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an operating system, an application program required for at least one function, and the like; the storage data area may store data created according to the use of the mobile phone, and the like. In addition, the memory may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), at least one magnetic disk storage device, a Flash memory device, or other volatile solid state storage device.
On the basis of the above embodiment of the method item, the present invention correspondingly provides an embodiment of a storage medium item;
an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium, where the storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, a device where the storage medium is located is controlled to execute any one of the methods for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network in an ice disaster according to the present invention.
The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, in which the computer program is stored, which computer program, when being executed by a processor, is adapted to carry out the steps of the above-mentioned respective method embodiments. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, read-Only Memory (ROM), random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, and the like. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals as is required by legislation and patent practice.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for identifying a fragile line of a power transmission network under ice disasters is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under ice disasters;
determining the fault probability of each line according to the thickness of each ice coating;
on the basis of the fault probability of each line, adopting Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a plurality of line cascading fault accident chains, and constructing a cascading fault incidence matrix according to each line cascading fault accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
2. The method for identifying the vulnerable line of the power transmission network under the ice disaster as claimed in claim 1, further comprising:
mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector;
taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
3. The method for identifying the vulnerable line of the power transmission network under the ice disaster according to claim 1, wherein the determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster specifically comprises:
acquiring weather data of an area where each line of the power transmission network is located; wherein the weather data comprises: duration of freezing rain, rainfall, water content in air and wind speed;
calculating the icing thickness of each line according to a preset icing model and each weather data;
the ice coating model comprises the following steps:
4. The method for identifying vulnerable lines of a power transmission network under ice damage as claimed in claim 1, wherein said determining the failure probability of each line according to each of said ice coating thicknesses comprises:
determining the fault probability of each line according to a preset power transmission line fault probability model and the icing thickness;
the power transmission line fault probability model is as follows:
5. The utility model provides a transmission network fragile line identification device under ice disaster which characterized in that includes: the system comprises an icing thickness determining module, a fault probability determining module, a cascading fault incidence matrix constructing module, a node weight degree determining module and a fragile line determining module;
the ice coating thickness determining module is used for determining the ice coating thickness of each line in the power transmission network under the ice disaster;
the fault probability determining module is used for determining the fault probability of each line according to each icing thickness;
the cascading failure incidence matrix building module is used for obtaining a plurality of line cascading failure accident chains by adopting Monte Carlo simulation based on the failure probability of each line, and building a cascading failure incidence matrix according to each line cascading failure accident chain; wherein each element in the cascading failure correlation matrix is: the associated weight of the fault line corresponding to the element and another fault line;
the node weight degree determining module is used for determining the node weight degree of each line according to the cascading failure incidence matrix;
and the fragile line determining module is used for taking the first M lines with the maximum node weight degrees as fragile lines.
6. The apparatus for identifying a vulnerable line of a power transmission network under ice damage as claimed in claim 5, further comprising: a vulnerability determination module;
the vulnerability determining module is used for mapping the cascading failure incidence matrix into a low-dimensional vector; taking a vector corresponding to a fragile line in the low-dimensional vectors as a first mapping vector; taking a vector corresponding to the unknown vulnerability line in the low-dimensional vectors as a second mapping vector; the unknown fragile line is any other line which is not a fragile line and corresponds to the cascading failure incidence matrix; and determining the vulnerability of the unknown vulnerability line corresponding to each second mapping vector according to the Euclidean distance between each second mapping vector and all the first mapping vectors.
7. An apparatus comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the method of identifying a vulnerable line of an ice damage grid according to any one of claims 1 to 4 when executing the computer program.
8. A storage medium comprising a stored computer program, wherein the computer program is configured to control a device on which the storage medium is located to perform the method for identifying a vulnerable line in an ice damage grid according to any one of claims 1 to 4 when the computer program is run.
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